SB Nation - David Wright

MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:00:28 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay, right, is congratulated by third base coach DeMarlo Hale (35) after hitting a solo home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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SI.com's Jon Heyman reported, via Twitter, yesterday that the Mets are not going to get into the bidding for Matt Holliday, but did make a bid for slugger Jason Bay:

#mets didnt want to get into protracted talks with holliday. also believe bay, as pull hitter with loft, fits citi field OK about 5 hours ago from web
#mets offered #bay 4 years for about $65 million, give or take. they'd probably have to bump it to 5 yrs to get him.

It was also reported that the Mets made an offer to catcher Bengie Molina. The Mets apparently want to sign one of the three biggest free agents in this year's free agent class.

Should the Mets sign both Bay and Molina, they would have a pretty solid lineup:

Jason Bay

Bengie Molina

Jeff Franceour

Daniel Murphy

Bay has never hit at the new Citifield, but as a Pirate, he went 5-15-.303-.382-.576-.957 at the old Shea Stadium. Bay's career home/road splits are a picture of consistency as he has hit .282-.387-.507-.893 at home (PNC Park and Fenway Park) and .278-.366-.532-.898 on the road in his career.

Bay's 2009 season was very productive even though his BA was a low .267. He went 36-119-.267-.384-.537-.921. Bay's BB% (15%), K% (30.5%) and ISO% (.269) were all at or close to career highs for him. Bay benefitted from a 49.1% FB% and a 19.7% HR/FB% in 2009.

Shouild Bay sign with the Mets, I do not see him hitting 30 HRs in 2010, but can see a solid 25-100 season from him assuming the Mets don't experience the numbers of injuries that plagued the team in 2009.

I was trading emails with Fake Teams reader DB11 today, and we agreed that Bay's NL-only league (UBA) auction value could be in the $30-$35 range in 2010 should he sign with the Mets.

Poll

Can Jason Bay hit 30 HRs in 2010 playing his home games at Citifield?

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: BP's Eric Seidman's Top 10 Fantasy Players

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:00:13 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, right, rounds the bases as he is greeted by third base coach Pat Listach (4) after Zimmerman hit a three-run home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 5-4. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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In his chat yesterday over at Baseball Prospectus, Eric Seidman was asked the following:

Tex Premium Lager (Jersey): Even More Blatant Fantasy Keeper Question (tm): In no order, who are the 10 most valuable position players for the next few years? Most seem obvious (Pujols, Hanley, Utley, etc.) but I'd like your take on the matter. Maybe someone (you?) can take over Nate Silver's top 50 list, which was one of my favorite articles each year.
Eric Seidman: I'll list the guys that instantly came to mind as that likely says a lot about their attributes: Pujols, Mauer, Hanley, Utley, Tulowitzki, J Upton, Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Braun. Those aren't in order and there are definitely others to think about.

So, he answered this question off the top of his head, but he included David Wright in his top 10 fantasy players for "the next few years". Am I the only one who thinks Wright shouldn't be in the top 10? He leaves himself an out with the last sentence in his response, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

What surprised me was including Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman in his top 10. Granted both players are very good all around players-offensively and defensively-but are they top 10? I like Zimmerman alot as well, and could consider him should he duplicate his 2009 season in 2010. As for Tulo, I don't see him going 30-20 again in 2010.

Which player would you take out of his top 10?

Poll

Which player should NOT be in the top 10 fantasy player list for the next few years?

Ryan Zimmerman

33 votes

David Wright

29 votes

Troy Tulowitzki

40 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round One Completed

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:00:21 -0000

Here's a look at the Fake Teams mixed league early mock draft results for Round 1. This early mock draft is a two round mock, and Ian posted the first pick in Round 2 last evening-Tim Lincecum.

1. Hanley Ramirez

2, Matt Kemp

3. Albert Pujols

4. Alex Rodriguez

5. Chase Utley

6. Ryan Braun

7. David Wright

8. Ryan Howard

9. Joe Mauer

10. Prince Fielder

Emilio Bonifacio: The Audacity of Hope

GameFish — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:02:08 -0000

This might seem like a far-fetched idea, but I'm sure there were at least a few people who were disappointed when The Bonifacio Experiment™ finally ended last season. You know, like... maybe some of the members of Emilio's immediate family.

If you were one of those three people, our friend JCR at the Sun Sentinel has dug deep into the Bill James Handbook to find a reason for you to be filled with hope.

The manufactured runs section of the Bill James Handbook offers a pretty good indication of why the Marlins stuck with Bonifacio, and why come spring training they'll give him every opportunity to play himself into the starting lineup again.

Among National League players, only Michael Bourn (47) had a higher manufactured runs contribution than Bonifacio (32), who ranked ahead of David Wright (31), Dexter Fowler (29), Troy Tulowitzki (27), Matt Kemp (27) and Hanley Ramirez (27).

...

Thanks mostly to Bonifacio, Ramirez, and Chris Coghlan, who was third on the team with 21 manufactured runs, the Marlins ranked fifth in the NL with 169 manufactured runs. Ahead of them: the Mets (181), Reds (173), Dodgers ( 172) and Rockies (172). For the Marlins, that's a huge improvement over 2008, when they finished second-to-last in the majors with 125 manufactured runs, ahead of only the Padres (104). The Marlins in 2009 were considerably less dependent on home runs and extra-base hits.

So I guess if there's a positive side to being an out machine, it's being a productive-out machine. And if manufactured runs contribution can make up for his OBP and, well, everything else, the Marlins may have reason to continue The Bonifacio Experiment™ next season.

Or at the very least, we have one less reason to complain about it.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft- Round 1, Pick 7.

Ian, yo — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:22:19 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

7 months ago: New York Mets' David Wright follows through with a two-run home run against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning of a baseball game, on Monday, May 4, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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David Wright. 3B, NYM.

In 2009, David Wright was likely a top 5 pick and top 3 in most leagues. Wright experienced a tremendous power outage in 2009, hitting a total of ten home runs (5/5 home/away.) Wright still managed to be valuable to those who drafted him by putting up solid numbers across the board in all of the other categories that mattered in standard 5x5 leagues. On the surface, one would think Citi Field has become an extreme pitchers park, but in actuality, it ranks 12th in the MLB in HR park factors, ahead of notable hitter's parks such as Citizen's Bank park and Chase Field.

According to an ESPN article from the beginning of July, Wright had been robbed of six home runs in the new park. To top it all off, Wright saw a large increase in K% (20.1% career, 26.2% 2009) and a drop to his career low OPS of .837. The non-sabermetric part of me thinks the high K% could be due to the pressure of being the main run producer and an overall drop in team performance.

I do think Wright will slightly rebound in 2010 and hit around 20 home runs, while putting up similar stats across the board. It's hard to argue drafting a player who will put up great stats in four categories with the upside to hit for power (in a rather scarce position.)

Poll

Will David Wright hit 20 or more HR in 2010?

Yes

41 votes

No

23 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

Will Ryan Zimmerman Win The 2009 NL Gold Glove At Third?

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:30:32 -0000

More photos » by Evan Vucci - AP

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• Gold Glove (clapclap)!! Gold Glove (clapclap)!!

The Bill James "Fielding Bible Award"...ESPN.com's Baseball Tonight's "Web Gem Champion"...A finalist for This Year in Baseball's Defensive Player of the Year...but the one we want in DC is the GOLD GLOVE!! David Wright's two-year reign will end today (Wed 11/11)...Will Ryan Zimmerman win it, or will he get robbed? The AL Gold Glove winners were announced yesterday...Here's what Bill James of "The Bill James Handbook" fame had to say about his decision to give the Nationals' 1st 1st Round pick his first Fielding Bible Award:

"Ryan Zimmerman has broken out of the pack in my estimation, however, by becoming the Defensive Runs Saved leader at third base over the last three years."

Check out Fangraphs.com's Final 2009 NL Defensive Stat Leaders at 3rd.

Does Zimmerman get recognized or robbed?

Washington Nationals: Manager Search...Mid-November Update.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Itsuo Inouye - AP

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The latest word on the Washington Nationals' skipper search comes via the TwitterFeed of SI.com's Jon Heyman, with Mr. Heyman writing:

"#nats gm mike rizzo says they'll announce their manager this week. they did interview valentine. riggleman also in mix."

This news, of course, goes along with this morning's reports, by Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin and FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal which both said that the Nationals were close to deciding who would guide the nation's capital's favorite baseball team through the 2010 season and (hopefully) beyond...

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• DC Skipper Search: What "They're" Saying...

• Former DC GM Jim Bowden on Lastings Milledge.

DC Skipper Search: What "They're" Saying...

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal first quotes DC GM Mike Rizzo, in an article entitled, "Source: Valentine a finalist to be Nats manager", stating that Jim Riggleman, who ended the season as the Nationals' Interim Manager, "...is one of the finalists," for the opening on the Nationals' bench, but Mr. Rosenthal's "major league sources" tell him, "Bobby Valentine is the other," skipper still under consideration. While Valentine would be, in Mr. Rosenthal's estimation, "a more dynamic choice" Mr. Rosenthal concedes that, "Riggleman appears to be the favorite," since, as previously reported elsewhere, "...(the) Nationals ownership is believed to prefer an inexpensive manager," plus:

"The Nats' biggest concern with Valentine is whether he can stomach losing as they go through their rebuilding process."

Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin, who cites Mr. Rosenthal as, "for my money the best reporter in the business" in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "The manager search nears resolution", agrees with Mr. Rosenthal's assessment of the Nationals' concerns about Valentine, and goes on to say that the decision comes down to "a referendum of sorts on how the Nationals' braintrust (and its ownership) views its own team,":

"You don't hire someone like Valentine unless you think the team is close to contending -- let's say, a year or two away."

What sort of message does staying with Riggleman send to the fans then? In Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin's full article on the impending decision entitled, "Nats search for manager could lead to Riggleman", Mr. Sheinin writes "the more conservative move" of promoting Jim Riggleman to the full-time position would allow the team to, "...reevaluate the position a year or two from now, when the team, theoretically, is closer to contending." I wonder how the idea of "Placeholder Jim" will go over with the DC Faithful?

Riggleman or Valentine?

• Former DC GM Jim Bowden on Lastings Milledge.

Former DC GM Jim Bowden is appearing on MLB on XM's "Power Alley" along with Seth Everett this week, and a caller today asked Mr. Bowden why things didn't work out for Lastings Milledge in DC? Mr. Bowden's response:

"...We saw Milledge as a corner outfielder and not as a center fielder. Um, and so, then what happened is, we were never able to acquire a center fielder, and finally Mike Rizzo, after he became General Manager, was able to get Nyjer Morgan from the Pirates, so they had to get a center fielder...Um, you know, Lastings Milledge is a guy that still has not had the at bats to see what he could do, he's got tremendous bat speed, um, and so certainly he's going to get that opportunity in Pittsburgh next to McCutchen(Andrew), and if he can hit second in the lineup and force feed some fastballs, you know, I still think he can be a .280, 20 homer, 80 RBI guy for a long time, he's got great make-up, he definitely had a falling out, he missed a meeting with Manny (Acta), um, as soon as he missed that meeting they optioned him out, um, and from that standpoint on, um, I think they wanted to move him, uh, somewhere else...I think if they had a spot for him in left field they might have kept him, but a chance to get a center fielder, it was a baseball decision, which you certainly have to understand."

Meeting with Acta? Eh...whatever...

Part I: Interview with Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect

Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:15:13 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

5 months ago: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson delivers against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston on Monday, July 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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Although this is my first baseball-related article on Fake Teams, here's proof I haven't been drinking Heinekens and watching the NFL all week.

First, I'd like to take a quick pat on the back and make this my first announcement that beginning shortly, I'm also going to be joining another staff in cahoots with Yahoo shortly over at Rivals.com. I'll be working as an intern and partly taking some basketball reins for Michigan Preps, the Michigan division of the network. Anyone who reads the college blogs over here, I look forward to sharing whatever knowledge I acquire over there and make sure everyone's getting some love.

No one can be watching everything at once, which is why we're here; we want a collective set of great eyes to tell us what's going on, particularly in the fantasy community. In trying to answer some of the most pressing fantasy baseball-related questions regarding the 2009 MLB season, I brought in a really good set of eyes. Enter Alex Eisenberg, the man in charge of Baseball-Intellect.com. Alex scouts the guys (mostly prospects) that we eventually bid up in our auction drafts, and breaks them down in a technical aspect. While he also diagnoses guys in the Show, I asked him to sit down and take a deep look into why some guys produced the way they did. Part II of this interview, which focuses more on some prospects and their outlook for next year, will be coming shortly. Enjoy.

TROR: B.J. Upton was someone who Tampa Bay counted on a great deal to lead off originally and then struggled even as he was moved down to the bottom of the order. The shoulder injury was the original diagnosis for his struggle, but what do you think plagued him this year?

Alex: I can't put my finger on why Upton struggled so much. I remember seeing pitches Upton used to drive out of the park in 2007, die at the warning track this year. I've looked at his swing and there are some changes to the action of his front leg, but I'm not sure how much of an effect it would have on his power output. That might be an article for the future, but right now it's a bit of a mystery to me. I'll say this: His swing isn't that power-oriented and his 2007 season was largely a flukish sort of year for him. However, his natural progression should have counteracted a return to the norm in his numbers, but that hasn't happened.

TROR: On the subject of the Rays, David Price struggled when he was called up this year, but settled down and posted respectable numbers, if not what we expected necessarily from him. Do you think the ceiling for him has lowered?

Alex: Price's upside hasn't changed for me. He improved as the year progressed...his command still needs work as does his change-up, but his peripherals were strong for the most part across the board. So he's still a potential No. 1 starter though he's more likely to be a No. 2 simply because of the sheer difficulty in becoming a true No. 1 guy...but the potential is there.

(More after The Jump)

TROR: A lot of fantasy owners (myself included) have anticipated that Alex Gordon was going to take the leap and become what the Royals and a lot of scouts predicted. After returning from his extended absence and posting a respectable line in September, where do you see him in terms of his contribution in 2010?

Alex: I think I see Gordon as an above average regular. He's young enough that he's still a potential breakout candidate and he hasn't reached his peak yet...I'm not sure why he's struggled at the MLB level. Injuries, trouble hitting lefties, trouble with the breaking ball...he's always had a propensity to strike out a lot. I wish I had a better answer for you. I think it's something we'll just have wait-and-see on.

TROR: They're just a month apart in terms of age and on the same team, but Brett Anderson outperformed Trevor Cahill this year. Does Anderson have the better upside both short-term and long-term?

Alex: Brett Anderson for me. They were neck and neck prior to last season. But Anderson really set himself apart. Anderson's velocity increased again (he used to be 87 - 89 in high school, it jumped to around 90 - 94 in the minors and at the start of the year and then he started hitting 92 - 96, even touching 97 at a couple points last year). There was a subtle change in his mechanics...I haven't put my finger on it yet, but the timing looks better and the arm action looks better; something looked like it just clicked for him. He has a deep repertoire of pitches and he commands all of them well. Not to mention Anderson's feel for pitching is excellent. I think he has a tremendous future.

As for Cahill, we know he has problems with command. He also had a problem missing bats. What was strange for me is that in his start for Team USA last year, I saw a four-seamer that the stadium gun clocked at 97 and then at 96. The action on the pitch was different from his two-seam fastball and I didn't see that pitch much if at all last year. I'm not sure if he abandoned the pitch or if there was a malfunction with the stadium gun, but it lowered his stock in my eyes.

However, like Anderson, his repertoire of pitches is deep. When it's on, Cahill's sinker is heavy and difficult to lift...in addition, I've felt that Cahill might have that rare ability to limit contact on batted balls...he showed it last year and he's shown it over the course of his minor league career. We still need more data to make that case, however.

Overall, he was rushed to the major league level and still held his own. Also like Anderson, Cahill's velocity increased as the year went on. His upside is still considerable, but it's probably a notch below Anderson's. In addition, he's a higher risk to reach that upside.

TROR: Bronson Arroyo was definitely a Jekyll and Hyde type of pitcher this year. His ERA was the lowest its been in several years and despite a rise in IP, his strikeouts dropped. What's your diagnosis and forecast for him?

Alex: I expect Arroyo to regress next year. He's a workhorse, but it's taken a toll on his arm.

His K's were way down last year and his overall command was worse. His .270 BABIP indicates some good luck as does his LOB% of 76. Hitters made contact at a higher rate than they had in his prior few seasons. I expect his ERA to be somewhere in the 4's next year.

TROR: One of the biggest discussions this year was David Wright's dramatic shift in numbers, most notably a decrease in power and slight regression in K/BB ratio. How much of this do you believe is mental or related to the new stadium, and how much is mechanical?

Alex: I think the park certainly had something to do with his down year. His was better away from Citi Field...not by a huge amount, but by enough where you could consider it a factor.

Not sure if something is up with his mechanics but I'll say that he has changed his mechanics over the years. However, this year's mechanics are not much different from last year's.

A big part of Wright's declines were related to his head injury I believe. If you look at his September, post-concussion numbers....624 OPS, BB% of 7, K% of 30...those numbers really brought his overall numbers down and he said he found himself flinching at balls on the inner half of the plate. Combine that with the extreme pitcher's park he played in, I think that accounts for his down season.

-------------------------

There you have it. Some great insight, and some more definitive opinions on some key players who didn't quite turn out like they were projected. Again, check out Alex's work over at Baseball-Intellect.com, and look out for Part II of the interview real soon.

It's bad enough being a Mets fan in '09, but it could be worse

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:18:36 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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For the second year in a row, the Phillies are in the World Series, and it doesn't help that their crosstown rivals posted the best record in the majors and are one game away from the World Series.

The Mets were the biggest disappointment of the 2009 season, finishing in 4th place with a 70-92 record. Could you imagine anything worse?

How about this: ESPN.com's Keith Law confirmed an old rumor that the Blue Jays turned down an offer that would have sent 19-year old prospect David Wright to the Blue Jays for outfielder Jose Cruz Jr. (Law worked for the Blue Jays before switching to journalism) Cruz was coming off a great 2001 season, hitting a career high 34 home runs, but had regressed coming into a contract year.

The Mets were willing to take the half-season rental, but the Blue Jays didn't feel the return was enough.

Before the start of the 2002 season, then-Mets GM Steve Phillips traded a package of young players that included Matt Lawton and Alex Escobar to the Indians for All-Star Roberto Alomar. The eight-player blockbuster was one of the biggest deals of the offseason, but only few people know how close the Indians were to landing All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes as well.

The Indians did not have much information on the young shortstop at the time and were content with taking outfielder Alex Escobar instead.

Both Wright and Reyes had down years in 2009, but have played major roles in the Mets' success in prior years. How would this team look without those two on the left side of the infield?