SB Nation - Juan Pierre

Kenny Always Gets His Man

larry — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:26:01 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Duck.

I found myself with a little time to kill before taking off on another jet plane and, conveniently, the White Sox decide to make a move. So no complaining about a lack of analysis from the editors. hoodlight.

First the particulars: the White Sox receive Juan Pierre from the Dodgers, along with $10.5 million, and send John Ely and Jon Link back. The payroll hit for Pierre shakes out as $3 million in 2010 and $5 million in 2011.

What the White Sox are sending west isn't anything to be concerned about. John Ely, who spent all of last year at AA Birmingham, is a soft-tossing, finesse pitcher. But he's right-handed so guess how that usually works out. John Sickels ranked him as the 14th best prospect in the club's shallow system. And Phil Rogers loves him. I consider him irrelevant. Jon Link, who spent all of last season in AAA Charlotte, has, as I've mentioned before, a high K rate but also a high BB rate. Perhaps he'll figure it out but I'd essentially given up hope on that.

Now for what the White Sox get. First, they get someone to fill the high socks void recently vacated by D.J. Carrasco. They also get someone who looks like a Leadoff Hitter to fill the Leadoff Position. They also get someone who isn't very good at major league baseball. He shouldn't play CF anymore and, with Alex Rios in the fold, hopefully Ozzie won't get any ideas. He can still cover ground in LF and his arm that makes 12 year old girls laugh isn't as much of an issue there. He's probably a slightly above average defender if used properly. Unfortunately, he gives up any gain there on offense. He's projected for a wOBA of about .310 next season by Bill James, well below the league average benchmark of .330. That's almost 10 runs below average. Of course, one can point to his .338 last season and, except for 2008, recent numbers higher than .310 to argue that projection is a little low. On the other hand, he's 32 and certainly in his decline, a particularly dangerous place for a slap hitter who relies on speed, and his last five seasons look like this: .338, .308, .317, .319, and .309. Throw out that outlier 2009 and that .310 looks about right.

All that said, the overall price, both in terms of dollars and players, is low. Even if Pierre hits that low projection, he'll probably be worth the salary he's being paid (and whatever value you want to ascribe to the fringe prospects). And, while based on actual offensive acumen he should be about the second to last player to be considered for the Leadoff Position (thanks Omar!), his mere presence will at least prevent the usual hand-wringing over that perceived void. Of course, if the $8 million commitment prevents the acquisition of a player with some real offensive value and/or Ozzie decides to play Pierre in CF because "he real fast", this could turn out badly.

Kenny Williams Strikes Again, Trades for Juan Pierre

SFiercex4 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:34:02 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Los Angeles Dodgers' Juan Pierre struggles to punch a 90 MPH fastball past the pitcher in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies in Denver on Monday, May 25, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Remember when Juan Pierre used to be good? I do. As a Marlins fan, I remember him being an amazing asset to our 2003 World Series team. He was fast, covered a lot of ground in center field, and consistently hit .300 or better.

I was right and wrong back then. Pierre was never a great hitter, though his baserunning and the fact that he had a solid OBP around .360-.370 kept him around the league average when he was with the Marlins. He did cover ground in center field, but he had one of the worst arms in baseball, and he still does. Overall, back in the day, he had seasons of 4.3 and 3.6 WAR for the Marlins before dipping below average in 2005. He had a fine season for the Cubs in 2006, though he did not hit at all for them. Then he signed with the Dodgers and bottomed out, offensively and defensively.

What's the point? Well, Pierre doesn't project for much this season, even after a "renaissance" season filling in for Manny Ramirez. But Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams seems to think that this is the Pierre is still in his 2006 form, maybe even his 2009 form, when the reality is that Pierre is probably still the man he was in 2007 and 2008.

It's really simple. Pierre hasn't had a BABIP over .330 since 2004. He put up a BABIP of .331 this season. When we check out his BABIP on batted balls (courtesy of Baseball-Reference) you see that he posted very high averages on grounders and fly balls compared to his career numbers, which more closely match the league averages for 2009. In particular, Pierre's fly ball BABIP was close to .100 better than both his career value and the 2009 average. We often say that faster players can expect better BABIP numbers, but we can safely suggest that, no matter how fast you run, you cannot outrun a fly ball play. To be fair, Pierre also posted career lows in terms of line drive BABIP, down to .574 from his career .704 average. Those two may indeed even themselves out; according to B-R, Pierre has hit almost the same number of fly balls and line drives over his career. Still, this leaves us with the difference between his career .239 BABIP on ground balls versus a .286 BABIP from 2009. I'd hedge my bet on a return to the .239 BABIP.

The rest of Pierre's offensive skillset remains the same. I don't think the BtB reader needs to be reminded that no-power, no-patience speedsters have very little offensive value. The brunt of Pierre's worth would have to come from his defense, and he is not exactly Ichiro in that respect.

(Funny side note on Ichiro. Clearly, he is the best player with Pierre's limited skillset. Ichiro's best offensive season, likely the offensive limit for players of this type, was 2004, when he posted a .378 wOBA according to FanGraphs and was worth 35 runs better than average. Suzuki's worst offensive seasons were in 2005 and 2008, when he posted BABIP's of .316 and .334 and wOBA's of .336 and .339 respectively. If we look at his second worst season, 2008, it compares quite well with Pierre's 2009, which according to wOBA was his second best season. Just thought it was an interesting comparison. Carry on.)

Pierre has a noodle of an arm. Over his career, he's been worth -44 runs on defense with his arm alone. This was part of the reason he was moved from center field, where he regularly posted -6 to -8 runs a season with his arm, to left field. Pierre still covers decent ground in the outfield, but that question really depends on where Pierre will be played. If he is kept in left field, he could remain a positive for the White Sox in the field. BtB's own Jeff Zimmerman projects Pierre at +3 runs / 150. Sean Smith has his own projection of +6 runs in the time that it would take for Pierre to rack up 502 at-bats. This is the most likely occurrence, as I believe Pierre will be pegged to move to left field, bumping Carlos Quentin to the DH spot.

Giving Pierre a projected wOBA (as more or less projected by the Fans and Bill James, it would seem) of .311, with a league average of .330, makes Pierre worth around -9.5 runs offensively in 600 PA. If that passes as 150 games (which I doubt he would get to), the modest Zimmerman projection of +3 runs in that time period yields 6.6 Runs Above Replacement, or 0.7 WAR. And that's if Pierre plays 150 games. Considering that Pierre is still owed $10M this season and $8.5M the next and, well, you figure out what's wrong with giving up anything for the privilege of his play.

The Juan Pierre era comes to an end

Phil Gurnee — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:15:45 -0000

thus putting the final touches on one of the Ned Colletti's worst deals as the Dodger GM. It is the deal that set many against him before he even got started.

The lightning rod Juan Pierre has probably had the largest effect on the current financial state of the team than any other player. When his first year was complete it was apparent to Ned that he was not the center fielder they envisioned when they gave him that five year deal. So they went out and got what they thought was the answer in center field in Andruw Jones. To say the least that did not pan out either. Pierre was moved to LF to make room for Andruw and he was also found wanting in LF so Ned then went out and completed his best deal when he acquired Manny to play LF and slide Juan into the role of fourth outfielder. While Ned was playing free agent center fielder, the best center fielder turned out to be an internal option whom they finally turned to when Andruw Jones failed.

During his time with the Dodgers, Juan Pierre has been a good Dodger if not the most productive one. For one month he gave us the unforeseen Beast Mode but most of the time he did exactly what he'd always done. He played hard, he stole bases, he ran the bases extremely well, was rarely hurt, hit for some average, didn't get on base at a very high clip, didn't have much of an arm, didn't play center field very well given his speed. He was exactly as advertised, the only problem with that is that he was paid much to much for what he did.

His value has always been right about 1/2 of the contract the Dodgers gave him. The Dodgers will continue to pay for that mistake this year and next but the White Sox will be getting a fairly valued Left Fielder.

I wish Juan Pierre nothing but good will as he can now begin his quest again for 2,000 hits.

The Dodger roster keeps growing with players we are paying to not be Dodgers. WIth the news from Eric that the Dodgers will be paying $7 Million for him to play with the White Sox the Dodgers are now paying $17 Million toward players not on the roster in 2010.

2010: $17,590,000

Juan Pierre: $7,000,000
Andruw Jones: $3,200,000 (deferred salary)
Nomar Garciaparra: $1,125,000 (deferred signing bonus)
Jason Schmidt: $2,625,000 (deferred signing bonus)
Will Ohman: $200,000 (option buyout)
Orlando Hudson: $$1,440,000 (deferred signing bonus)
Randy Wolf: $2,000,000

Possible Players Acquired, with scouting reports by Baseball HQ:

12. Jon Link RHP.....26.....2005 (26) Virginia Commonwealth by San Diego Padres
Team (LG)         W-L ERA    IP  CMD  K/9  oppBA 
==============    === ==== ===== ==== ==== =====  
Charlotte (IL)    1-2 3.99  56.1  2.4 10.5  256
MLE               1-2 5.67  56.1  2.0  9.2  292
Strengths: Plus 88-94 MPH fastball. Hard slider. Changeup. Pitch movement.
Weaknesses: LHH. FB command. Control. Inconsistent slider.
Comments: Powerful reliever has closing experience and could evolve into legitimate late-innings option in Majors. Possesses three average to above average offerings with sinker, SL, and CU. Erratic mechanics and release point hinder control and needs to set up piches better.
2010 MLB Role: Short reliever
Potential Rating: 7B

14. John Ely RHP.....23.....2007 (3) Miami-OH
Team (LG)         W-L ERA    IP  CMD  K/9  oppBA 
==============    === ==== ===== ==== ==== =====  
Birmingham (SL)  14-2 2.82 156.1  2.5  7.2  241
MLE              14-2 3.86 156.1  2.0  6.2  274
Strengths: Plus curveball. 87-92 MPH fastball. Groundballer. Strong frame. Aggressiveness. Deception.
Weaknesses: Changeup. Stiff arm action. Effort in delivery.
Comments: Short and strong pitcher with fringe-average velocity, but keeps hitters off-balance with sinking changeup. Complements moving fastball with plus curveball and mixes pitches well. Commands plate and induces groundballs, but doesn't dominate. Effort in delivery may lead to durability issues.
2010 MLB Role: Middle reliever
Potential Rating: 7C

Juan Pierre Traded To White Sox

Eric Stephen — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:08:28 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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The Dodgers have traded outfielder Juan Pierre to the White Sox for two players to be named later, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. Brown also reports the Dodgers are picking up "about half of remaining salary."

Buster Olney of ESPN reports the Dodgers will pay $7 million (of the $10 million) to Pierre in 2010, and $3.5 million (of the $8.5 million) in 2011.

General manager Ned Colletti had this to say:

Juan always put the Dodgers first, even when it wasn’t in his personal best interest. In this day, that is a rare attribute. When he and I spoke at the end of the season, we agreed that if an opportunity presented itself in which his chance to play would be enhanced, we would pursue it and that’s what we’ve done. He deserved the chance to play more.

I don't expect the pitchers to be much. This deal is pure salary relief for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have until January 7 to pick the two players from the White Sox.

Because it is a rule that when writing about Juan Pierre, it must be mentioned what a great guy he is, I will not deviate from that. Pierre is a hard worker, and by all accounts a good teammate. This is not in dispute, as I have seen it with my own eyes. This has also been mentioned for three seasons by many in the mainstream media, often before noting his acutal production on the baseball field.

In the interests of full disclosure, I will admit that the day Pierre signed with the Dodgers I sent an email to my family with the subject "God Damnit" because I was so pissed off at the signing. I hold no ill will toward Pierre the person, but I just want to lay out the facts about Pierre the player.

From 2007 to 2009, there have been 234 players with 1,000 plate appearances. Pierre ranks...

211th in OPS+ (84)
218th in SLG (.357)

OK, that's not fair. Pierre's game is getting on base and scoring runs. Among those 234 major leaguers, Pierre ranks...

140th in OBP (.339)
133rd in runs/PA (12.63%)

Heading into 2007, the Dodgers had Matt Kemp, who at the time was thought by many to be unable to play center field. The Dodgers chose to give Pierre five years rather than signing a stopgap like Kenny Lofton for one year. After 2007, the Dodgers thought so much of Pierre's defense in center field that they signed Andruw Jones. Now, both Pierre and Jones are on the White Sox, still getting paid by the Dodgers, and the Dodgers have their man in center field who has been here all along.

Thank you, Juan Pierre, for playing well for the first part of the Manny Ramirez suspension, in May, and creating trade value that wasn't there before this season.

White Sox acquire Juan Pierre

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:05:20 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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TIm Brown of Yahoo! Sports is reporting that the White Sox have acquired speedy outfielder Juan Pierre from the Dodgers in exchange for two players to be named later.

The Dodgers will pick up about half of the two years, 18.5 million dollars remaining on his contract.

Pierre will be the teams center fielder and leadoff hitter, giving them a proven top of the order bat who can get on base and generate opportunities to score runs.

The White Sox were talking with Scott Podsednik, but this move means he will likely land elsewhere. The Cubs and Royals are his best options at this point.

Winter Meeting Blues? Not for this blogger

Phil Gurnee — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 23:17:20 -0000

Many Dodger fans and some writers have expressed displeasure with the fact the Dodgers sat on their hands during the recently concluded Winter Meetings. Getting past the angst of the unfathomable decision to not offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson I'm having a hard time being outraged at the lack of movement.

In fact I'm even feeling kind of optimistic about the Dodgers keeping their hands away from the cookie jar where they have been burned time and time again during Ned's reign. Not much good has come when the Dodgers have gone to the winter meetings in the past. Pop over to MLBTR and check out all the moves that happened during these meeting and then add in the fact the Lowell to Ranger deal and I'm not looking at very much I think the Dodgers missed out on.

The big names want big deals and I haven't seen a big name in the 2009 FA class that I'd be interested in even if the Dodgers had money. Holliday or Bay? No thanks. Lackey would be great but not for his years and his price. It would have been nice to been in on the Granderson deal but we don't need an outfielder. E Jackson ended up being quite expensive so no thanks there.

I've stressed in the past that I wish we were able to dip our feet into the plethora of injured but substantial skill set of Harden/Sheets/Bedard but given the price and the health risk, maybe next year at this time we'll be glad we didn't have the money to spend on the fragility of the best pitchers available.

Once Brad Penny got 7.5 I was saying no thank you and maybe Ned was doing the same. At the end of the winter meetings he expressed that he would be okay with giving the group of Elbert/McDonald/Lindblom/Stults/Haeger a chance to battle it out in spring training for the fifth spot. For anyone who follows this blog, I think all of us who write for TBLA would be pleased if that really happened. Elbert was the minor league pitcher of the year in 2009 and McDonald in 2008. At least one of those pitchers should be able to capably handle the back end of a rotation spot. I'm much more worried about Billingsley and Kuroda rebounding and taking on the pressure of being the backbones of the rotation then I am of one of the Isotopes group not being able to handle their end of the rotation.

We are trying to fill the fourth spot by moving Juan Pierre. Given that Coco Crisp and Mike Cameron are still available for less by millions it still appears to be a long shot for the Dodgers to move Juan. My gut says that if they are unable to move Juan then they will try their best to trade Sherrill instead. Given that Sherrill might be on the move management did spend $100,000 on two Rule Five pitchers. Both have some upside as the Dodgers try the Venezuelan pipeline once again.

Even though the team ownership appears bleak I don't think the team itself should be lumped into the same problem sack. We have to replace Wolf but we don't really have to replace the Wolf of 2009 who was better then anyone imagined. The Dodgers will acquire a fourth starter, let us address the capabilities of that person when he's actually acquired. We need a 2nd baseman, which could come internally from DeWitt or a combo of DeWitt/Free Agent(Belliard) or maybe a Felipe Lopez will become available as Ned waits out this years free agent class.

Given the lack of financial flexibility the current Dodger management has to work with they kind of have to utilize the wait and see approach. Luckily for them it might simply be the best approach. The core of the team for 2010 is set.

1st - Loney 2nd - Unknown, SS - Furcal, 3rd - Blake, C - Martin

LF - Manny , CF - Kemp, RF - Andre

SP - Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, (Elbert, Lindblom, Haeger, Stults, McDonald, Troncoso), Unknown

RP - Broxton, Kuo, Sherrill, Troncoso, Bellisario, Wade, Leach, Carlos Monasterios, Armando Zerpa, Justin Miller

This team should improve at 1st, SS, LF, and catcher. I'd expect Blake to regress a bit. The bench needs to be built again. Right now it looks like Hu is the utility infielder with Pierre/Repko manning two outfield spots. One backup catcher is needed and then one left handed pinch hitter if Repko makes the team or a right handed pinch hitter if he doesn't.

A quiet winter is not the worse thing that could happen to this team given the turmoil going on as the battle for who will own the team continues behind the scenes. The demise of the Dodgers has been overly exaggerated. The team is who plays the games and we still have one hell of a team and given the possible improvements from Loney, Kershaw, rebounds from Martin/Billingsly, or exciting rotational debuts from Elbert, the combination of all these factors could keep them on the same path they have been on the past two years.

Ownership is a mess, the team isn't, lets not confuse the two. WIthout a doubt this team would be better suited to do battle with the Phillies/Cardinals/Braves with a payroll around the level of 2008 but it is not going to happen, so we just need to focus on what we can do with what we have to work with. This optimism may be short lived but I'll work with it as long as I'm feeling it.

Jason Repko versus Xavier Paul

Phil Gurnee — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:46:33 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Jason Repko appears to be the frontrunner for the 4th outfielder job if Juan Pierre is dealt.(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Based on what Ned Colletti is saying, Jason Repko appears to be staying around for the moment. With the Dodgers trying very hard to trade Juan Pierre and his contract for either a starting pitcher or a 2nd baseman the battle for who becomes the Dodger fourth outfielder looks to come down to Jason Repko or Xavier Paul. It would seem a given that Paul is the better candidate to be the fourth outfielder but is he?

They both can play all the positions of the outfield, they both have plus speed, and they both have guns for arms. So that is how they are the same. How they are different is probably why I think that Repko might be the better fit for a fourth outfielder role.

The Dodgers starting outfield is Manny, Kemp, and Andre. Of those three only one has a serious chink in their armor. That chink is that Andre does not hit left handed pitching very well. For his career Andre has a 200 point split in his OPS between facing RHP and LHP. Last year that split widened to .926 compared to .629. Part of the problem the Dodgers had last year with Pierre on the bench was that we could not use Pierre in RF to sit Andre against some LHP. The gain in moving Kemp to RF and Pierre to CF,with the left handed Pierre facing left handed pitching just wasn't worth it.

Jason Repko does many things well that you would look for in a backup outfielder. The thing he does best however is mash LHP. His slug% against LHP over the last three minor league season has been greater then .585 every year and twice it has topped .600. The Dodgers have a need for guy who can hit LHP and play RF. Repko can be that guy. What he can't do is hit RHP, so the Dodgers will need to have a guy like Minky on the bench who can handle that role.

Xavier Paul does everything as well as Repko in the field. Repko is faster on bases. What Paul does not do well is hit LHP. He hits RHP as well as Repko hits LHP but my argument is that this team needs someone to caddy for Andre. If Manny was to get hurt, then I'd bring up Paul to be the everyday LF not Repko, but for a guy off the bench Repko might be that guy.

Last year I had a hard time finding a good RHH platoon player when looking for an upgrade for the Dodgers. Shockingly they are had to find which is why you see guys like Gabe Kapler still playing. Repko is not a good player but Repko might be exactly what the Dodgers need for the way this team is built.

Of course I would rather have had Jamie Hoffmann then Repko but the Dodgers felt differently and I'm not quite sure why. There was the comment that when Hoffmann signed he was promised to be put back on the 40 man in May. I'd like to ask Ned if Hoffmann had also asked that he be left off the 40 man so he would be unprotected and a team could pick him up via the rule five if they wanted him. He or his agent had to have known that when the Dodgers released him last summer that the 40 man rosters were full so he would only get a minor league deal, so resigning with the Dodgers made sense back then when no one claimed him. But if I'm his agent I would have made part of the deal that he not only be promised to be put back on the 40 by May of 2010 but that he be left of the 40 man before the rule five draft because otherwise it makes absolutely no sense given the room the Dodgers had on the 40 man that he was not included. Just my thoughts, I could be way off base.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

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Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

Tigers Working on Another Threesome to Get Pierre?

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:01:00 -0000

More photos » by Branimir Kvaruc - AP

Can the Detroit Tigers get a pitcher that they could trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Juan Pierre?

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Are the Detroit Tigers trying to put another three-team trade together? According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Tigers are talking to the Los Angeles Dodgers about outfielder Juan Pierre.

But the Dodgers want a pitcher in return. And though Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, or Jeremy Bonderman are due to make similar money than Pierre (who's owed $18.5 million on the remaining two years of his contract), it's likely that the Dodgers aren't interested in adding either questionable pitcher.

So the Tigers would have to get a pitcher the Dodgers like. Enter Carlos Guillen. Could Detroit use him to get a pitcher suitable to the Dodgers' preference, and then trade him for Pierre?

As we said in today's earlier post about trading Guillen, this sounds like the wishiest of wishful thinking. Is there another team interested enough in Guillen to give up a decent major league pitcher? Perhaps, if that team has a chance to unload a bad contract. (Unfortunately, the Tigers probably fit that category better than anyone else.)

Pierre could presumably give the Tigers the leadoff hitter they've lacked, and bring some much needed speed. This season, he batted .308/.365/.392 with 30 stolen bases. He could also provide some insurance for Austin Jackson, in case he's not ready to be the full-time centerfielder to begin next season. (If he's not, that should go over well with Tigers fans.)

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

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Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.