SB Nation - Luis Gonzalez

Moments in Diamondbacks History: Randy Johnson K's 20

Jim McLennan — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:00:15 -0000

"This was a game to put in a time capsule and let people of the future watch it."
-- Randy Johnson

Cincinatti	Arizona
1. Donnie Sadler, LF	1. Steve Finley, CF
2. Juan Castro, 1B	2. Jay Bell, 2B
3. Barry Larkin, SS	3. Luis Gonzalez, LF
4. Alex Ochoa, RF	4. Reggie Sanders, RF
5. Aaron Boone, 3B	5. Mark Grace, 1B
6. Ruben Rivera, CF	6. Damian Miller, C
7. Pokey Reese, 2B	7. Tony Womack, SS
8. Kelly Stinnett, C	8. Craig Counsell, 3B
9. Chris Reitsma, P.	9. Randy Johnson, P
Full boxscore

The MLB Network showed Randy Johnson's 20-strikeout game at the start of the month, part of a series of high-K outings. It provided a fascinating glimpse into a bygone era of Diamondbacks baseball

Look at the bottom of that Diamondbacks line-up. Ouch. We forget that, outside of Luis Gonzalez, the 2001 Diamondbacks were not great hitters. Among the regulars (250+ PA), the only ones with an OPS+ better than 92 were Gonzo (174), Sanders (117) and Grace (113) - this was a team driven by pitching, with an total ERA+ of 120. To put that into context, it's like every inning for Arizona that year was pitched by Jake Peavy, who has the same career ERA+. Of course and in particular, driven by Curt Schilling and Randy, who went 43-12. That number of wins by two team-mates hadn't been surpassed in the NL since Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry went 46-14 for the Giants in 1966 [and the AZ pair would beat that the following year, going 47-12!]

While ageless wonder Counsell is the only AZ position player still actively playing, there's a couple of semi-familiar names appearing for the Reds too. Donnie Sadler was the leadoff hitter for Cincinnati - the commentators were very enthusiastic about him, saying he was a highly touted Red Sox prospect at one point, also praising his wheels and arm [we'd see startling proof ot the former in this game]. He flamed out, however, his final AB being for Arizona in 2007. Reds' catcher, Kelly Stinnett was also a regular with the Diamondbacks from 1998-2000, and then returned to Arizona in 2005 as a back-up to Chris Snyder.

They mentioned that Castro was making his first start at first-base, outside of spring training, since 8th grade - even now, in his fifteen-year career, he has made just four there. Clearly, the aim was then, as now, to stack your line-up with as many right-handers as possible when facing Johnson, and hope the defense holds up. It didn't help much, with two strikeouts for the Reds in the first - though both came on fastballs, not the devastating slider Johnson was to unleash as the game went on. There was some early speculation by the commentators that Johnson was experiencing back pains earlier on.

The opposing starter for the Reds was Chris Reitsma. He was last seen in the majors in 2007, but played in the 2008 Olympics for Canada. This was his first year in the majors - and it's worth noting he allowed one run in eight innings of work, keeping his team in the game. Admittedly, he did fan eighteen less batters than Johnson, which I'm thinking has got to be a record for K disparity between starters ever. But hang on: a rookie starter giving the Diamondbacks' hitter fits, after barely a month in the major-leagues? Our ace getting basically no run support? Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose...

Two more strikeouts for Randy in the second inning, sandwiched around a brutal sawing-off of Boone's bat. A call from the play-by-play guy [curiously, they seemed to rotate a couple of guys in and out of that role, including Rod Allen] to "Stevie Gilbert" - presumably the stats guy - to find out how many K's Rivera had in his career against Johnson. Is this the same Steve Gilbert now covering the Diamondbacks for MLB.com? When Johnson fanned Stinnett in the third, that tied him with Bob Gibson for (then) 11th on the all-time list. The K of Reitsma which immediately followed, broke the tie.

Said Thom Brennaman at the start of the fourth, "I'm not sure we've seen three more dominant innings." Well,, the fourth probably extended the streak, with Johnson striking out the side. Barry Larkin, the third victim, had a spectacularly bad swing on 2-1, letting the bat and it ending up somewhere behind the umpire. The bat also helicoptered away from him on strike three. I also didn't realize how long the AFLAC trivia question has endured: the one for this game was, "How many NL MVP awards were won in the 1970's by the Reds?" The answer is six.

Gonzo wasted a chance in the bottom of the fourth: he tried to stretch a leadoff single down the left-field line into a double, but got gunned down by the Sadlerzooka . Meanwhile Johnson had fanned six in a row, tying his own franchise record, until Aaron Boone singled with one out in the fifth, ending a streak of 13 consecutive batters retired by Johnson. Boone then stole second, and was running to third on the pitch - a mistake by Johnson on an 0-2 count to Rivera. The RBI single which resulted frustrated the Big Unit, who clearly muttered to himself the rest of the inning, though no more harm was done.

The Diamondbacks did tie it up in the sixth and Johnson was involved, singling to lead things off. Though he was erased on a Finley fielder's choice, the upgraded speed on the basepaths might have been for the best, as our CF then went to third on a Bell single. Gonzo popped up with one out, swinging on a 3-0 pitch, but Sanders drove the run in with another hit. Enlivened by this, Johnson then struck our the next seven batters faced, setting the franchise record which he'd tied earlier: it took him 33 pitches, 25 of which were strikes.

In the middle of the streak the commentators started to wonder "What's going to happen with the Circle K-meter?" as it was only designed to handle sixteen K's. Impromptu banners proved the immediate solution - though between then and the end of 2002, it would overflow on four more occasions - three Big Unit starts, and one by Schilling. We haven't come close to challenging the K-meter since - the high-water mark for the Diamondbacks' pitchers at Chase over the past five seasons is only fourteen strikeouts.

In the eighth inning, the crowd seemed to realize what they were watching, with a 'Ran-dy, Ran-dy' chant going in the stands. However, It was only starting the ninth that Brennaman mentioned the record. After RJ struck out JCastro to end the inning, his 20th K, Johnson thrust his fist towards the sky, and yelled as he left the mound, a rare display of emotion. Of the strikeouts, eighteen were swinging, almost every one on pitches out of the zone. Zero walks. Yet he still ended with a no-decision: his Game Score of 97 remains the highest without the starter getting a W, since Nolan Ryan pitched ten shutout innings, and fanned 15 in August 1990, his Rangers eventually winning in 13.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks didn't do much. In the bottom of the eighth, Arizona had a chance, with Bell's two-out ground-rule double into the pool area. Gonzo was intentionally walked, and a wild pitch moved both runners up. There was some discussion of whether to pinch-hit for Sanders, likely with David Dellucci, but Reggie was left and flew out to center. One also wonders whether Johnson could have gone out there: he'd thrown 124 pitches, but in the seven starts that season, Johnson had averaged 120 pitches per start - his very next outing, he threw 145, perhaps making a point of some kind.

The issue was magnified because we had also played extra-innings the night before - the decision to lift Randy looked flaky, as Byung-Hyun Kim and Bret Prinz combined to walk the bases loaded in the tenth, before Prinz ended things. In the 11th, it looked like even more like the game was over. Two more walks and an error by pitcher Russ Springer on a bunt loaded the bases - for the second consecutive inning, without a Reds hit. A K gave us some hope, but Cincinnati scored two runs on a sacrifice fly, with Sadler tagging up and scoring all the way from second on a ball hit to the wall in deep left-center.

Fortunately, Reds closer Danny Graves, coming off 1.2 innings the night before, couldn't get it done - back-to-back singles by Bell + Gonzalez led things off, and a failed Sanders bunt later, Mark Grace doubled both men home. Two walks - one intentional - loaded the bases, and Graves then faced the last man available off the Diamondbacks' bench. Matt Williams. He worked the count full, hen ripped one down the left-field line, foul by inches. However, the next pitch from Graves was down and away, a bases-loaded walkoff walk, something which has only happened for us five other times in franchise history [most recently on September 9th this year, when current 3B Mark Reynolds walked his way to victory against the Dodgers].

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Johnson, +55.9%
Honorable mentions: Grace, +33.7%; Williams, +33.6%;
Bell, +24.0%; Prinz, +12.0%, Swindell, +10.7%
God-emperor of suck: Russ Springer, -33.2%
Dishonorable mentions: Finley,-18.9%; Colbrunn, -13.7%;
Sanders, -13.3%; Miller, -11.0%

Post-game quotes:

"They told us to lay off his slider and hit his fastball, but, man, you couldn't tell the difference until it was on top of you, and then it was too late, He was throwing 97 mph fastballs and 88 mph sliders and all you could do was say, 'Oh, God.'" -- Reds outfielder Alex Ochoa
"I feel blessed to have seen this twice. When a guy is pitching like that, you put your glove on top of your head because you are not going to need it." -- Mark Grace, who was also playing first-base in the game where Kerry Wood struck out 20 batters.
"It was ridiculous. You know, he throws that batting-practice fastball 92 or 93, and there were a lot of times tonight I thought he was throwing his fastball that speed, and it was 98. It was so easy, with no effort, on any of his pitches, sliders, everything." -- Steve Finley
"I was asked if I wanted to go out there and saw no point in going out there for the 10th inning, I surely could have went out there and done it, but what was the point in going out there and throwing 10 innings? I really didn't see it." -- Randy Johnson

I really enjoyed watching the game, and it was fun to see the likes of Kim, Bell [who went 3-for-5 and saw 31 pitches!] and Grace [supremely clutch in the 11th]. However, it was Johnson's night and a great reminder of exactly how dominating the Big Unit was at his peak - he had more strikeouts (372) that seasonthan Reitsma had in his entire eight-year career. I certainly hope to see more Diamondbacks' coverage on the MLB Network - I can think of several other contests which would certainly deserve repeating on the channel.

Value For money, Part II: The History of the Diamondbacks

Jim McLennan — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 17:41:57 -0000

In the first part of the series, we explained the principal of Marginal Wins and Margin Cost, as a way of looking at team expenditure in relation to success. We found that the amount teams spent above the minimum possible, per victory above the minimum likely, ranged widely - from 0.67 for the Marlins, to 6.46 for the horrifically underachieving Mets. After the jump, let's look at the history of the Diamondbacks, in terms of marginal cost and marginal wins, and compare this season against previous ones.

When you are looking at the history of a franchise over time, rather than comparing teams at the same point in history, things get tricky. You now have to adjust for inflation as well as the change in minimum salary over time. Fortunately, our team's history is relatively short, so from a variety of sources, I was able to track down information on the minimum salary paid in baseball for each year since 1998. Below is a table which shows the data, and the resulting Marginal Cost per Marginal Win amount for each year since we got going in 1998. The final column is that, adjusted for inflation into 2009 terms.

Year	Salary ($m)	Min. wage ($k)	Wins	MC/MW ($K)	Adj. MC/MW ($K)
1998	28.94	170	65	1.47	1.95
1999	70.37	200	100	1.26	1.63
2000	79.23	200	85	2.02	2.53
2001	85.25	200	92	1.84	2.24
2002	102.82	200	98	1.97	2.36
2003	80.66	300	84	2.04	2.39
2004	69.78	300	51	25.58	29.23
2005	62.33	316	77	1.88	2.08
2006	59.68	327	76	1.84	1.97
2007	52.07	380	90	1.00	1.04
2008	66.20	390	82	1.66	1.66
2009	73.52	400	70	2.91	2.91

Sources: Salary data from USA Today
Inflation Calculator from Bureau of Labor Statistics

I think what stands out - or perhaps,. doesn't - is how consistent the results have been. With one exception, which I'll get to in a moment, the inflation-adjusted MW/MC has been between one and three every year in the team's history - I haven't compared this against all the other teams, but I would certainly have expected to see much more variation, given the team's wild swings in fortune and finance in their short time in the game. However, I did run the same numbers for our expansion brothers in Tampa. Even excluding their highest number [4.50 in 2002, when they lost 117 games] the range was still greater, between 0.68 [last season] and 3.83 in 2001, before inflation.

The obvious outlier for the Diamondbacks is 2004. That year, we weren't the first team to lose 110 games - that had been done six times before. We were, however, the first to do so with a near-$70 million payroll. Even when the then Devil Rays were at their nadir, losing 107 in 2002, their payroll was half that. And even the Tigers the previous season - the first in 40 years to end up with less wins than replacement - spent below $50m. How did we shell out the equivalent of nearly $80m in today's money, yet perform only fractionally above replacement level?

Looking at Arizona's salary bill, one stands out: Randy Johnson earned $16 million, making him among the best-paid players in baseball that year. However, he wasn't the problem, going 16-14 - and deserving better, with the team scoring twice or less in seventeen of his starts. If you look at Arizona performance by WARP2, he was worth a startling 11.4 Wins Above a Replacement Player (WARP), the fourth-most in the majors. However, the fall-off from there was steep. The six below RJ in the payroll list cost a total of $39m and combined for a total of 1.3 WARP. To put that into perspective, this year, Esmerling "minimum wage" Vasquez was worth 1.3 WARP, by himself.

Particularly grim was Luis Gonzalez, $8.25m, and 0.7 WARP. However, like this year, medical issues certainly played their part. Gonzalez struggled with an injury that left him barely able to throw at all. He eventually succumbed to surgery, hitting only .259 in 105 games. He wasn't the only one. Slugger Richie Sexson barely saw a hundred trips to the plate, and closer Matt Mantei needed an operation to deal with bone spurs in his shoulder. He earned seven million dollars and had an 11.81 ERA in a dozen appearances - I think this is likely why we have never paid anywhere near as much for a relief-pitcher since. Still, this team was 16 games worse than any other in the NL; good health can only help so much.

It's probably no shock that the young i.e. cheap overachievers of 2007 returned the lowest number. However, the second-best figure is from the 1999 roster, one often lost in the glare of two years later. They scored over nine hundred runs, 89 more than any other year, and conceded only 676, just two above the best figure ever. If not a particularly "cheap" team - the cost works out to over $90 million in today's terms - almost without exception, the cash went to players who produced. If you look at the team's salary list, the only real exception is Todd Stottlenyre, who tore his right rotator cuff and missed half the season; he still had an ERA+ of 113 in seventeen starts.

That year, all four NL playoff teams won 97 or more games - contrast this season, where no team in the league had as many victories [perhaps a sign of greater competitive balance?]. Pitching dominated the league, and it was pitching that Arizona used, posting a collective ERA+ of 122. That was the result of a 3.77 team ERA, and every single pitcher who started a game for the Diamondbacks had a winning record; our worst arm, Andy Benes, had an ERA+ of 96. Meanwhile, the offense piled on the runs, led by Jay Bell (38 HR) and Matt Williams (35, plus 142 RBI), with significant contributions off the bench from Bernard Gilkey, and July call-up Erubiel Durazo.

The 1999 Diamondbacks are certainly the most under-rated squad in franchise history, and in many ways were the best ever to pull on the jersey - they won eight more games in the regular season than our World Series team, and it was a surprise when they lost in four to the Mets. Since then, the only team to win 100 games while spending less money has been the A's, who somehow managed to get 102 and 103 victories in 2001-02, with payrolls of $34m and $40m. The former had a MC/MW number of 0.53, the lowest by any playoff team in recent history. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is perhaps why they wrote a movie about Billy Beane, with Brad Pitt playing him.

The final part of this series will look at the current state of competitive balance in the majors - which team has the hardest task, because the opponents it encounters most often have big budgets?

Make Your Pitch: The NL playoff teams want YOU...

Jim McLennan — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 05:56:50 -0000

The regular season is over, and we now move on to the playoffs. Well, the Diamondbacks don't, but most fans will still be watching with interest as things progress in the post-season. We all have our own loyalties, but in order to decide who gets the Official AZ SnakePit Playoff Endorsements, I reached out to all the SB Nation blogs that are taking part, and asked them to make a pitch for the support of the post-season neutrals here in Arizona. The AL version will follow, just as soon as the league gets their act together and decides who'll be taking part out of the Central division. But after the jump, you'll find what the National League contenders had to say for themselves.

[Update] I have now added a sixth option to the poll, since I suspect a significant number of those voting may not actually be Diamondbacks fans at all...

First up, Dan Moore, from Viva El Birdos, through his hat into the ring with a pitch for the Cardinals.

Thanks for the opportunity to win your fanbase. I thought I'd express my love for the Cardinals in the same way Shakespeare would have, if he were still alive to tell us how much he loved the Cardinals.

THE CARDINALS

A SONNET

by Dan Moore (feat. Albert Pujols)

There on the edge of plausibility,

a figure stalks across beisbol fields—

his swing a picture of agility;

against his accent "G" and "T" yield.

Behind him saunters a standing army,

players we guessed would be lying in traction.

Carpenter's shoulder—lost years, it harmed me—

somehow surviving two seasons' inaction.

A team of destiny and Mozeliak:

Injuries conquered and outfield acquired,

Shortstop still saved with Khalil out of whack,

Unlikely heroes and guns that are hired.

If after all that I still don't have you caring,

"It's our faulg your teang has gongtrol of Dag Hareng."

Eric Stephen, of True Blue LA, bravely takes up the tough job of canvassing on behalf of the Dodgers:

Here's why the AZ Snake Pit members should throw their support to the Dodgers:

Phoenix for years was Dodger territory, with broadcast affiliates in Arizona dating back for God knows how long. Now that you have your own team, obviously it's different, but ask your parents. I bet a lot of them were Dodger fans. You don't want to disappoint your parents, do you?

Speaking of broadcasting, the Dodgers have Vin Scully, in his 60th season behind the microphone. He will be broadcasting the games on radio during the postseason. Who better to be associated with the World Series than Mr. Scully?

Stay within the NL West! A victory for the Dodgers is a win for the division, in the never ending struggle for national respect. I realize the Rockies are also in the NL West, but George Frazier is one of their broadcasters. Why reward Frazier, on of the worst announcers in baseball, over Scully?

The longer the Dodgers last in the postseason, the more highlights we will see of Kirk Gibson's home run in Game One of the 1988 World Series. With each viewing, the announcers might mention Gibson is currently a coach with Arizona. Getting the name "Diamondbacks" into a postseason broadcast is a good thing.

Rooting for the Dodgers can only bring good karma, and you owe us for Rusty Ryal's line drive that nearly ended Hiroki Kuroda.

If the Dodgers win the World Series, it is a lock that Ned Colletti will be given a long-term extension as general manager. He has given a combined $127.2 million to Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, and Juan Pierre during his Dodger tenure. This is a good thing for D-Backs fans.

WholeCamels out of The Good Phight, opted to get his pitch in early, creating a Fanpost for the Phillies. But in the interests of completeness, here's what he had to say:

As your Philadelphia Phillies blogger, here's my pitch:

Because red is good (different hues, but so what?).

Because you're as sick of hearing about the National League's inferiority as I am. A repeat World Series Championship for a National League team would benefit the league. "A rising tide raises all ships."

Because we're not the Dodgers or the Rockies, those guys can eat it hard.

Because we sent you Curt Schilling, in exchange for some crap and that sociopath Vicente Padilla. And Schilling begat a World Championship. Show some gratitude.

And lastly, because I am a former short-time Arizonan. I lived in Tucson for a year, and that year happened to be 2001. I went to Game One of the NLDS -- the Curt Schilling/Matt Morris pitchers' duel. I cheered like a crazy person after that Luis Gonzalez blooper in Game Seven, and jumped in the pool at my apartment to celebrate. I'll admit that it helped that there were about a dozen lightly-clothed UofA coeds in there too, but it was still a beautiful, pure moment. I have a Tucson Sidewinders t-shirt that I still wear to this day. I spent a couple nights in Summerhaven just a year or so before the big fire. I miss Eegee's, I used to work at the Speedway Bookman's and acquired about half of my record collection there, saw a bunch of shows at the Rialto and Club Congress, and I got my dog there! He just turned eight years old.

Okay, I realize that most of you are probably Maricopa County folks, but c'mon. Was that a shameless pitch or what?

Go Phillies!

Finally, Russ from Purple Row, adopted the straightforward and to the point approach in support of the Rockies: "We welcome you with open arms over at Purple Row. We had such great fun with those of you who came over during the 2007 postseason, we'd love you to come over again." [Update: RockiesMagicNumber has now provided something a little more detailed]

Here’s why the AZ Snake Pit members should support the Colorado Rockies:

    * Rivalry. It sounds absurd, but after 2007, both teams looked to have a strong presence within the division and the two of us would be beating up on each other with our homegrown rosters for years. As it stands, the gods of regression hit you guys in a disproportionate manner as compared to us, which terrifies me for next season. I hate seeing teams hit by injury and regression, because I know that if we beat them, we’re not saying we bested Brandon Webb and Conor Jackson, we’re beating up on a massively regressed Chris Young and AAA players. It sounds arrogant, but I want to see these two teams embody excellence in building a homegrown team and fight each other to the top of the NL West for years to come. Respect your opponent.
    * Speaking of broadcasting, the Dodgers may have Vin Scully, but since his talents have been wasted on television, Jeff Kingery and Jack Corrigan have been painting the picture of the games over the airwaves for Colorado better than nearly anyone in baseball for the past forever, especially Kingery, who is in his final season. He’s been there since the inception.
    * Stay within the NL West! I agree with Eric, but why reward the Yankees West? I sure wish I could throw an entire payroll at 2 players who aren’t even playing for the team (Schmidt and Jones), don’t you? Then account for Manny and Pierre, and that is just a pile of misappropriated funds. Reward the wise fiscal organization.
    * You don’t want to root for Joe Torre. Or Manny.
    * The Cardinals wouldn’t even be where they were they not able to trade for Holliday at the deadline. The Rockies have been essentially the same club since day 1, adding only a few supplementary pieces here and there.
    * The American League is made of evil and gimmicky rules. "I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter."
    * Much as we “eat it hard” do you really want the entire NL to be centered around Philadelphia even more than it already is? PHILLIES PHILLIES PHILLIES OMG OMG OMG!!! Give me a break. More power to the unappreciated teams in terms of media markets.

Poll

Which NL team will you be rooting for the in the playoffs?

Cardinals

387 votes

Dodgers

80 votes

Phillies

56 votes

Rockies

118 votes

Who cares?

25 votes

I'm not actually an AZ fan, but am here to stuff the ballot-box for my real team.

116 votes

782 votes | Poll has closed

Jim Thome & The 300 Club

Eric Stephen — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:54:19 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Browse more photos »

Jim Thome comes to the Dodgers with 564 career home runs, the most by any player ever acquired by the club. Here is a look at every player with 300 or more career home runs that became a Dodger, with their numbers in blue:

Player	Age	HR Before	Dodger HR	PA	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
JIm Thome	38	564	???	??	???	???
Manny Ramirez	36	510	32	561	.345/.453/.631	182
Eddie Murray*	41	504	0	9	.286/.444/.286	103
Frank Robinson	36	503	6	405	.251/.353/.442	127
Fred McGriff	39	478	13	329	.249/.322/.428	99
Andruw Jones	31	368	3	238	.158/.256/.249	34
Boog Powell	35	339	0	53	.244/.415/.244	83
Eddie Murray*	33	333	65	1974	.278/.359/.440	125
Luis Gonzalez	39	331	15	526	.278/.359/.433	101
Jeff Kent	37	302	75	2146	.291/.367/.479	118

*Eddie Murray was actually acquired twice with over 300 home runs -- once in 1989 and again in 1997.

Jones and Powell cratered after joining the Dodgers, but the rest were reasonably productive wearing Dodger Blue. The Hall of Famers -- and I'm including Manny Ramirez here -- in the group all performed very well after joining the Dodgers. But Jim Thome, Hall of Fame resume or not, doesn't have to put up huge numbers to succeed.

Jim Thome won't be playing regularly. His job is to be the big bopper off the bench. The Dodgers gave up a non-prospect in Justin Fuller to get him If Thome can get a big hit here or there, especially in the playoffs, this trade is a sizable win for the Dodgers.

NL West parks: Advantage offense

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 19:09:48 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

If you thought AT&T Park was a pitcher's park, you would be wrong. Wrong wrong wrong wrong. Wrong wrong wrong wrong. Yer wrong!

Browse more photos »

The NL West has gotten a reputation for utilizing the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. That reputation might not be so well-deserved. Here's a look at Baseball-Reference's park factors for the NL West stadia. Bold indicates the high mark of the data set, and italics indicate the low mark. Also, instead of showing the batting/pitcher park factor splits, I averaged the two for simplicity of presentation.

West	2009	Multi-year
AT&T Park	103.5	102
Chase Field	108	107
Coors Field	105.5	107
Dodger Stadium	94.5	99.5
PetCo Park	88.5	89
Average	100.0	100.9

Given that 100 is deemed neutral, it is interesting to note that the division's parks are playing at exactly neutral this season in spite of the blatantly manipulative ways of PetCo. Looking at multi-year factors, three parks are strongly on the offensive side (including the two most offensive in the league), while Dodger Stadium has historically been pretty neutral, though it has been acting particularly squirrely this season. How about we compare to the other NL divisions:

Central	2009	Multi-year
Busch Stadium	98	99
Great American Ballpark	104.5	104.5
Miller Park	97.5	100
Minute Maid Park	103	98.5
PNC Park	94.5	95.5
Wrigley Field	103	105
Average	100.1	100.42

East	2009	Multi-year
Citi Field	99.5	99.5
Citizens Bank Park	101.5	102.5
Land Shark Stadium	97	99
Nationals Park	101.5	101.5
Turner Field	101	99
Average	100.1	100.30

Check out the multi-year average among all divisions. The NL West favors offense more than the other two divisions. Granted, Coors Field and Chase Field are the top two offensive parks, which skews the numbers a bit, but PetCo does so in the other direction nearly by itself. The NL West may have a greater range of ballparks than the other divisions by double, but overall it favors pitching no more than the other division.

Naturally, regarding the Rockies only, the picture changes slightly. Eliminating Coors Field from the equation, the Rockies maintain the most pitching-friendly road schedule other than the Diamondbacks.

NL West Report

Arizona (59-72, 4th, W4, 19 GB)

Last Week: 4-2. 1-2 @ Giants. 3-0 vs Astros. After winning just one of eight, the Diamondbacks have won four straight, their best streak since taking five straight at the Mets and Pirates in early August.

Pace: 73-88.

Divisional Change: No change.

This Week: 4 game road series @ Dodgers, 3 game home road series @ Rockies. If Colorado still wants the division title, Arizona could help out a lot by extending their win streak to eight before losing three in a row.

News: Luis Gonzalez has officially retired, and now will have a role as the D-backs' new special advisor. His retirement conference was Saturday.

AZ Snakepit includes a video interview in a game thread this weekend.

Conor Jackson's future with Arizona is in doubt. Jackson went from the Diamondbacks' primary cleanup hitter last season to missing nearly the entire season with Valley Fever. Now, he might be non-tendered at the end of the season, forcing his comeback to come with another team via free agency.

Conor Jackson

#34 / Left Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 07, 1982

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Conor Jackson	30	99	8	18	4	0	1	14	11	16	5	0	.182	.264	.253

Script is flipped for D-backs catchers. Miguel Montero has made the most of Chris Snyder's injuries as the new starting catcher for Arizona, which is making Snyder expendable. Look for the Diamondbacks to look for a trade opportunity with Snyder, who received a three-year deal in the offseason.

Chris Snyder's injury forced the club to call up catcher-of-the-future John Hester, who responded by homering in first Major League at-bat.

Transactions: Optioned LHP Daniel Schlereth and OF Trent Oeltjen to AAA Reno. Traded RHP Jon Rauch to Minnesota for a PTBNL. Called up C John Hester and OF Chris Young.

Injuries: Activated OF Justin Upton and placed C Chris Snyder (back inflammation) on 15-day DL. RHP Chad Qualls is day-to-day but might miss the rest of the season with a dislocated knee. He will have an MRI in coming days.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Byrnes	hand	06/26/2009
Chris Snyder	lower-back	08/23/2009
Scott Schoeneweis	other-excused	08/10/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

News on the other three divisional teams after the jump.

Los Angeles (78-53, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 4-2. 2-1 @ Rockies. 2-1 @ Reds. Los Angeles overcame an opening game loss to both series but overcame it both time to win both difficult road series as the Rockies dropped 5 of 6, thereby giving the Dodgersa comfortable cushion in the NL West.

Pace: 96-66.

Divisional Change: Gained three games on COL.

This Week: 4 game home series vs Diamondbacks, 3 game home series vs Padres. LA has an opportunity to add to their lead by beating up on the two divisional teams that have been looking to future season for months.

News: Dodgers Regain Control Of NL West. If you're a masochist, check how TrueBlueLA responded to arguably the biggest storyline in the division.

The Nationals traded former Rockie Ronnie Belliard to the Dodgers

Ronnie Belliard

#10 / Second Base / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 07, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ronnie Belliard	86	187	26	46	7	1	5	22	14	40	2	0	.246	.296	.374

True Blue LA reacts to the trade.

Belliard is not enough though. LA wants to improve their bench with a power threat, preferably from the left side. Kudos to Dan O'Dowd for scooping up Jason Giambi already, who is 7-for-16 wwith 5 BBs and 2 HRs in 5 games with Colorado Springs.

Peter Gammons doesn't like the Dodgers, citing their third starter and a trade deadline reliever as reasons for being a playoff team:

"If it weren’t for Wolf and the trade for George Sherrill, they would not make the playoffs."

Transactions: Optioned IF Tony Abreu to AAA Albuquerque and called up RHP Vicente Padilla. Acquired IF Ronnie Belliard from Washington for minor league pitcher Luis Garcia and a PTBNL.

Injuries: Transferred Jason Schmidt (shoulder) from the 15-day to 60-day DL. LHP Ohman threw an inning in AAA Aug 26 and could return in mid-September. Hiroki Kuroda threw a successful simulated game Saturday and should return within a couple weeks.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009
Hiroki Kuroda	concussion	08/16/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Doug Mientkiewicz	shoulder	04/17/2009
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009

San Diego (56-76, 5th, L2, 22.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-2. 2-1 @ Braves, 2-1 @ Marlins. The Padres at least did their part in helping Colorado by winning both series against a couple Wild Card hopefuls.

Pace: 69-93.

Divisonal change: None.

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Nationals, 3 game road series @ Dodgers.

News: Jake Peavy is having injury problems for the White Sox in AAA. He took a line drive off his elbow August 24. He then pitched Saturday and left after just 68 pitches with elbow soreness.

In related news, MLB.com's Adam Roseberg writes that the Friars reap Rich-ard rewards of trade. Naturally, Richard went and got lit up for six runs in 2.1 IP against Atlanta after Rosenberg's column. That's the nature of the Padre rotation this year.

Clayton Richard

#41 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Sep 12, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Clayton Richard	3-1	6	6	0	0	0	0	29.1	33	17	17	3	20	22	5.22	1.81

A member of GasLampBall, aptly named plunkeveryone, wrote a fanpost noting that Kevin Kouzmanoff tied franchise record Wednesday. He is now the Padres' all-time leader in HBP with just 35.

Here's a Q&A with outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr, who is the only player in MLB with his unique situation.

Transactions: Recalled RHP Adam Russell, LHP Wade LeBlanc, and OF Drew Macias. Optioned RHP Cesar Carillo to AAA Portland.

Injuries: Placed RHP Mike Adams on the 15-day DL (shoulder) retroactive to Aug 22. Adrian Gonzalez is day-to-day with a sore biceps in his throwing arm but singled in a pinch hit AB last night. Kyle Blanks was set on the 15-day DL Saturday with a strained arch in his right foot. He is in a walking boot and is eligible to return Sept 13. I know how that injury feels. It's bizarre and annoying.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Edgar Gonzalez	concussion	07/19/2009
Kyle Blanks	foot	08/29/2009
Mike Adams	shoulder	08/22/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

San Francisco (72-59, t-2nd, W3, 6 GB in Div, t-1st in WC)

Last Week: 5-2. 0-1 vs Rockies. 2-1 vs Diamondbacks. 3-0 vs Rockies. San Francisco took advantage of the first series of the season that Lincecum, Zito and Cain all pitched in to sweep Colorado and pull even for the wild card lead, a very commendable achievement after the gutpunch they received Monday night.

Pace: 88-74.

Divisional Change: Gained 0.5 in NL West (LAD), gained 3 games in WC (COL).

This Week: 3 game road series @ Phillies, 3 game road series @ Brewers. The Giants earned their way to top of Wild Card Mountain, and they'll have to continue to earn staying there. The Rockies get to face two NL creampuffs at home while SF hits the road to face the World Champs and fading but strong Brewers.

News: Jon Heyman tweets the Giants are interested in Brad Penny, along with the Marlins and Yankees.

John Perotto notes that the Giants are one of two favorites to land favorites to land Penny.

Fans cheer as Kent gets Giant honor, being enshrined in the Giant's Wall of Fame. Said Kent:

"The only place I ever cared about and gave my heart to was San Francisco." - Jeff Kent

The Big Unit is willing to return as reliever. After being on the 60-day DL for since July with a trapezius injury, Randy Johnson would be unable to contribute as a starter unless he had a long rehab assignment. The Unit coming out of the pen is a wild card if ever there was one.

Randy Johnson

#51 / Pitcher / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-10

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: L

Born: Sep 10, 1963

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Johnson	8-6	17	17	0	0	0	0	91.2	90	51	49	18	31	80	4.81	1.32

The Giants claimed Trevor Hoffman on waivers, though some have specualted it was more to prevent a team like the Rockies from claiming him. Regardless, Hoffman appears to be staying with the Brewers.

Transactions: Optioned Joe Martinez to AAA Fresno. Recalled LHP Alex Hinshaw and IF Ryan Rohlinger.

Injuries: Randy Johnson will throw from 90-100 feet Tuesday or Wednesday - the Big Unit hopes to return this season as a reliever. Rich Aurilia is set to come off the 15-day DL but indications are he won't join the big league club when he does. Bengie Molina has been available to pinch hit and will likely return to the lineup at some point in Philadelphia from his torn right quad. Freddy Sanchez will make a couple rehab starts and then return Sept 2.

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Freddy Sanchez	shoulder	08/18/2009
Rich Aurilia	ankle	08/12/2009
Andres Torres	hamstring	07/31/2009

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Randy Johnson	trapezius	07/06/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Henry Sosa	shoulder	08/05/2009

San Francisco Giants Injuries

15-Day

Player Injury Type Injury Date

Freddy Sanchez shoulder 08/18/2009

Rich Aurilia ankle 08/12/2009

Andres Torres hamstring 07/31/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player Injury Type Injury Date

Randy Johnson trapezius 07/06/2009

Noah Lowry ribs 03/27/2009

Kelvin Pichardo shoulder 06/28/2009

Henry Sosa shoulder 08/05/2009

Diamondbacks 9, Astros 0 - SnakePitFest Rocks the House

snakecharmer — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 02:53:48 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

The face of the franchise. Gonzalez gets a ceremonial key to Chase Field from president Derek Hall and owner Ken Kendrick, as his children look on prior to the game.

Browse more photos »

Record: 58-72. Pace: 72-90. Change on last season: -10.

On Gonzo Appreciation Night, on the game of the 2nd Annual SnakepitFestPaloozaThon, the Arizona Diamondbacks won in resounding fashion. The Diamondbacks' offense, which was absent the entire road trip, broke out again today for 9 runs - more free tacos tomorrow! - for the second straight night against the Houston Astros. Only 9 runs, guys? You couldn't even hit double digits?? Pbbt.

Big nights from a lot of the usual big players - Justin Upton was 3 for 4, Mark Reynolds hit home run # 40, and Miguel Montero had a big 3-run double to break the game open. Oh yeah and Jon Garland pitched 7 scoreless innings! More details to come in the recap by Jim when he gets home, after surely celebrating a big win. (Think he brought the techno music in the car?)

Well, that kicked ass in more ways than can possibly be listed. And you thought SnakePitFest 1 was good, with the Petit Unit leading us to a 7-1 win over the Marlins? This time, Jon Garland, Clay Zavada (with help from the massed forces of the Zavada Brigade) and Blaine Boyer combined for a seven-hit shutout, Mark Reynolds smashed his fortieth homer of the season, and Arizona rolled to another easy win. That's now 34 runs since Thursday - only once in franchise history has that total been bettered over three games [Sept. 27-29, 2002, when we totalled 36].

However, let's start at the beginning, with the gathering at Sliders, where tickets were handed out to those who arrived. I got there about 3:45, having gone through the park on my way from work, and collected my Gonzo T-shirt on the way. There, we met with friends old and new - finally getting to put a face to edbighead, sporting a cool D-backs tattoo - and handed out the flair provided by Mrs. SnakePit, each attendee getting a fan, packet of Big League Chew and a stylish Clay Zavada-inspired 'tache.

Next time, we will fax Mrs. Soco's sign to the D-backs in advance,
ensuring it is not derailed by roster moves.

In what can only be described as a miracle, everyone who had to collect tickets had shown up with about thirty minutes to spare, so we made a dash for the blessed coolness of Chase Field. We were in time to see the video tribute to Luis Gonzalez, which included clips from his press conference, where the emotion on view definitely brought a lump to my throat, and highlights from his career. No matter how often I see the ninth inning of Game Seven, I am still convinced we are going to lose...

After a scoreless first inning, Arizona got on the board in the second, courtesy of what can only be described as a gift-wrapped run. With men on second and third, the Astros starter opted to walk Brandon Allen intentionally, to reach the pitcher's spot. However, ball one sailed to the backstop, allowing Miguel Montero to scamper home from third. The margin became a great deal more comfortable in the next inning, the Diamondbacks scoring four times. Ryan Roberts tripled, scoring Stephen Drew, who'd walked; a Justin Upton single scored Roberts; and then Mark uncorked #40, a towering bomb just fair down the left-field line into the second deck, estimated at 439 feet. He's one behind Pujols again for the major-league lead.

Mrs. SnakePit illustrates the three stages of Grace

That made the score 5-0 to Arizona, but why stop there? Tacos arrived shortly afterwards, Upton delivering them with his 21st home-run, and Miguel Montero drove in three more with a bases-clearing double in the seventh. That gives him 50 RBI for the season, third on the all-time list for Arizona catchers, behind Chris Snyder last year (64) and Johnny Estrada's 71 in 2006. It'd have been nice to get double-figures again, but Montero was stranded at third, so we fell 90 feet short. Despite the nine runs, we only had eight hits; Upton got three of those, while Roberts had two, and Drew + Montero each had a hit and a walk.

Meanwhile, Jon Garland was running like a well-oiled machine - he allowed only five hits and one walk in his seven innings, while the Astros didn't get a man past second-base for the entire game. It was a little hard to tell from our seats exactly how he was doing it, but you couln't argue with the results at all, and it's good to see his record now making its way to 8-11. Clay Zavada came in for the eighth, and there were some nervous moments as he allowed two hits [as you'll see below, we had pinned our colors to his mast!], but escaped the eighth, and Blaine Boyer retired the Astros 1-2-3 in the ninth to seal another excellent victory.

Meanwhile, in the stands...

Not that there's anything wrong with that, katers would like to stress...

We were certainly The Loud Section: there's nothing quite like watching the game with others who are just as passionate about the team, and have no problem showing it. The Zavadataches were a big hit, though it has to be said, their adhesive properties left a little to be desired [with hindsight, I should probably have shaved my stubble too, as that didn't help!]. High-fives were exchanged as the game progressed and the Diamondbacks continued to add to their tally, and I even felt secure enough in the lead to go get Mrs. SnakePit an ice-cream.

What? We were on TV? Who, us? I must actually admit that 21st technology was involved, the D-backs booth tweet telling us to get ready was picked up by kishi, who alerted me and the word was quickly spread. Mustaches were attached and the arrival of our favorite reliever was greeted with a roar of approval from our section. Unfortunately, both myself and Mrs. SnakePit forgot to Tivo the event, so we'll be awaiting screen-grabs from 'charmer, and a chance to review the event at SocoFest in three weeks. I'm sure we looked like total idiots!

We were also honored by a visit from team president Derrick Hall, who swung by to say hello to the Loud Section. He swiftly promised mrssoco that Trent Oeltjen would be returning to the team before long - he'd obviously heard the tales of her wrath, television sets getting hurled across the room, etc. - and discussed possible configurations for the Racing Gracies - let's say, it might not just be Grace... But pity poor FourCornersFan, who left us in the middle of the eighth, having bemoaned the absense of favorite Augie Ojeda, and so missed his pinch-hit appearance in the bottom of the inning!

Still, it was a marvellous time, and many thanks to everyone who turned up and helped make it so - especial thanks to Mrs. SnakePit for providing the swag, and holding the fort at Sliders until I got there. But it was definitely the kind of day that re-affirmed my fandom - the team stepped up and did its part, with a performance that sealed it as the most enjoyable game of the year. We didn't have our camera, but I'm sure other people did, so please feel free to post your pics in the comments.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Jon Garland, +23.4%
Honorable mention: Ryan Roberts, +11.2%
God-emperor of suck: Gerardo Parra, -2.8%

Needless to say, with most of the usual suspects actually present at the game, it was a somewhat quiet Gameday Thread, though there was still some rather interesting conversations. It gave some new faces a change to shine, and so wailord came out on top, with pygalgia in second, and muu + 'charmer shared third place. Also present: IHateSouthBend, soco, unnamedDBacksfan, mrssoco, Diamondhacks, Azreous, hotclaws, katers, Fiona, eel, GuruB, kishi, ZonaBacks10 and 4 Corners Fan.

Audio clippage of manager AJ Hinch discussing sending Chris Snyder to the DL, whether today's outfield might be the standard one in 2010, and we've also got the Gonzo press conference, emotion and all. For more on Luis, there's a good article by Scott Bordow in the Tribune: Valley welcomes Gonzo back. I also liked Reynolds' post-game comments: "I'm humbled to be in the situation I'm in. Gonzo did a lot of great things for this organization, for this team, and I can only hope to follow in his footsteps and bring a World Series here and do all the great things he did... I just go out there every day and sharpen my cleats and I'm just able to hit a home run every now and then."

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

I am now off to bed, pausing only for a shower - it seemed quite sticky in the park today for some reason, and I feel rather grungy. There will then be sleep and a long lie-in tomorrow. Fortunately, 'Skins is on the recap!

NL West Report: Trade Deadline Edition

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 23:23:27 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

How is it possible there are rumors around the trade deadline that Stephen Strasburg could be a Padre? It's actually very possible, I promise.

Browse more photos »

Welcome to the week of the trade deadline. Three NL West teams figure to be buyers (Dodgers, Rockies, and Giants) while two figure to be sellers. Colorado will probably look to add another reliever, avoiding big headline moves, but rumors are swirling around the other four teams, including some blockbuster trade possibilities.

NL West Report

Arizona (43-59, 4th, W2, 19.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-3. 1-2 @ Rockies, 3-1 vs Pirates. The usually sorry offense scored 7+ runs three times over the weekend vs. the Pirates. They even shut out Pittsburgh in their last two games behind Max Scherzer and Doug Davis and are riding a 19 inning scoreless streak.

Pace: 68-94.

Divisional Change: Lost 0.5 games.

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Phillies. 4 game road series @ Mets

News: According to Nick Piecoro, about half of the MLB teams have inquired about Chad Qualls. Piecoro says Arizona would be unlikely to trade him, but for reference, they are looking for a starting pitching prospect. He won't be a free agent until the offseason of 2010, so his asking price would be steeper than Connor Graham. The Phillies reportedly have actively scouted him.

Chad Qualls

#50 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-5

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 17, 1978

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Chad Qualls	1-1	3.54	1.16	33	5

Chris Snyder may be out in Arizona, if someone will trade for him. Snyder will be off the disabled list in about a week - he was given a 3-year, $14.25mill contract this offseason, but Miguel Montero's emergence in his absence has made him expendable. If the Mets ambush the Rockies and get back in contention by the deadline, Snyder would be a big upgrapde over Brian Schneider.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports echo the common sentiment that there hasn't been much interest in Doug Davis or Jon Garland so far. Officials hope that interest picks up by the end of the week. The Cubs may be a possibility for Davis after Ted Lilly went on the disabled list. Garland recently criticized his teammates, saying he "doesn't see any fight" in them.

Luis Gonzalez may be awarded with a position as a team official.

Negotiations with top pick Bobby Borchering are in a holding pattern.

Arizona would not have offered Felipe Lopez arbitration this offseason for fear he would have accepted.

Jim McLennan outlines these and other rumors at AZSnakePit.

There is no new transaction or DL news to report.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Byrnes	hand	06/26/2009
Chris Snyder	lower-back	06/21/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Tom Gordon	hamstring	05/04/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

News on the other three divisional teams after the jump.

Los Angeles (62-36, 1st, L1)

Last Week: 4-2. 3-0 vs Reds. 1-2 vs Marlins. Florida gave Los Angeles just their fourth home series loss of the season. It was also their last series loss since their last loone at home, June 25 vs the Mariners.

Pace: 102-60.

Divisional Change: No gain/loss to second place Colorado.

This Week: 4 game road series @ Cardinals. 3 game road series @ Braves. LA has won their last three road series, but none of them were against serious playoff threats. St. Louis and Atlanta are, so it will be interesting to see how they stack up. Even though the Rockies are on an east coast swing, it may be an opportunity to make up ground. It all starts with Chris Carpenter tonight.

News: Andre Ethier was named the NL Player of the Week for last week, his second time earning the honor this season. Ethier was 12-for-22 for a .545/.620/1.045 line.

Since the chances of Halladay being dealt are slim, Jon Heyman reports that LA is focused on landing Cliff Lee. Dozens of reports confirm the their interest in Cleveland southpaw.

Cliff Lee

#31 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers??

Height: 6-3

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 30, 1978

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Cliff Lee	7-9	3.14	1.30	107	33

The Dodgers are interested in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but only if they fail to land Lee. However, Danny Knobler reports that interest is moot, as the Reds refuse to believe they are sellers. Early last week, the Peter Gammons said the Indians would have to be overwhelmed to trade Lee. They might come off that, but even then, the package required would be much less than Roy Halladay.

Jason Schmidt gave up 7 ER in 8 IP covering two starts last week. He failed to pitch more than 5 innings in either game.

Ed Price says the Dodgers are scouting George Sherrill.

Check out TrueBlueLA's Week in Review.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Manny Ramirez was held out of Sunday's lineup due to soreness in his hand after it was hit by a pitch Tuesday. He was held out Wednesday, returned Friday and Saturday but managed only one hit. Eric Milton was moved to the 60-day DL, and Jason Schmidt was activated and made two starts. Doug Mientkiewicz and Cory Wade began rehab assignments at AAA.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Manny Ramirez	hand	07/27/2009

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009
Cory Wade	shoulder	07/16/2009
Xavier Paul	knee	05/21/2009
Ronald Belisario	elbow	07/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009
Doug Mientkiewicz	shoulder	04/17/2009
Hong-Chih Kuo	elbow	04/30/2009

San Diego (38-61, 5th, L2, 24.5 GB)

Last Week: 1-6. 0-3 vs Marlins, 0-1 @ Phillies, 1-2 @ Nationals. Lost 3.5 games in the division. Yet another miserable week for San Diego, who scored just 17 runs in 7 games. They are 2-9 after the All-Star Break, are a ridiculous 4-19 in July and haven't won a series since June 28 at Texas.

Pace: 62-100.

Divisonal change: Lost 3.5 games.

This Week: 4 game road series @ Reds, 3 game home series vs. Brewers.

News: Getting Adam LaRoche hasn't slowed Boston. The Red Sox have made Adrian Gonzalez their primary target, though San Diego doesn't want to trade him. Ken Rosenthal suggests San Diego will listen to offers on Gonzalez and Heath Bell, but are unlikely to trade them. Buster Olney agrees, saying teams will have to overpay for the All-Stars. If he is traded, Gonzalez would be understanding. Joel Sherman suggests the Padres would be more willing to trade Bell than expected.

Corey Brock suggests Kevin Correia could be traded, but no one is interested yet.

Kevin Correia

#29 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 24, 1980

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Kevin Correia	6-8	4.84	1.36	86	41

Could Stephen Strasburg be a Padre? It's very possible. If Washington can't sign him, and it looks very possible, San Diego would be in the best position to select him in next year's draft, provided they continue their freefall in the standings, Strasburg remains healthy and his stock doesn't drop. Strasburg is a San Diego native and would fit way too well in San Diego camo. Please root for Washington to sign him.

Manager Bud Black got extended through 2010.

Transactions: Recalled LHP Joe Thatcher.

Injuries: Edgar Gonzalez officially joined an already full disabled list with a concussion last Monday after getting hit in the head by a Jason Hammel fastball the weekend prior.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jake Peavy	ankle	06/09/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Nick Hundley	forearm	06/18/2009
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Henry Blanco	hamstring	07/05/2009
David Eckstein	hamstring	07/06/2009
Edgar Gonzalez	concussion	07/19/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

San Francisco (52-46, 3rd, W1, 7.5 GB)

Last Week: 2-5. 1-3 @ Braves. 1-2 @ Rockies. San Francisco was outscored 37-18 last week, and the only two games they won, they allowed just one run. They even lost Tim Lincecum's start. They are 3-7 since the ASB,

Pace: 86-76.

Divisional Change: Lost 2.5 games.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Pirates, 4 game home series vs Phillies. The Pirates just beat the Giants ina series a week ago, and the Phillies have the 2nd best record in the NL. It might bot be so easy to get back up off the deck.

News: Joel Sherman reports the Giants have interest in Victor Martinez, but the asking price figures to be high.

Nick Johnson

#24 / First Base / Washington Nationals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 235

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Sep 19, 1978

	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nick Johnson	.298	.410	.409

Andrew Baggarly discusses several other names Brian Sabean may be or should be considering, including Nick Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Ryan Garko, Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla and Russell Branyan. Henry Schulman also suggests Marco Scutaro and Aubrey Huff.

Willingham and Johnson were scouted this weekend. Schulman suggests a deal for one of those names sits at a 50-50 chance.

The Giants never even called about trading for Matt Holliday.

Brian Sabean says absolutely no to trading for Roy Halladay. He likes his 'spects.

One thing is for sure though. We should expect Brian Sabean to make a deal, especially after the Rockies have given him a small reason to panic.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Rich Aurilia was placed on the 15-day DL Tuesday with a toe injury.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Randy Johnson	shoulder	07/06/2009
Rich Aurilia	toe	07/21/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Joe Martinez	concussion	04/10/2009

Poll

Which player do you think is more likely to leave or join the NL West that has been rumored?

AZ RHP Chad Qualls traded

7 votes

AZ LHP Doug Davis traded

3 votes

AZ RHP Jon Garland traded

6 votes

CIN RHP Bronson Arroyo acquired by LAD

1 votes

CIN RHP Aaron Harang acquired by LAD

4 votes

CLE LHP Cliff Lee acquired by LAD

22 votes

WAS draft pick RHP Stephen Strasburg goes unsigned, drafted next year by SD

9 votes

SD RHP Kevin Correia traded

1 votes

SD RHP Heath Bell traded

7 votes

SD 1B Adrian Gonzalez traded

7 votes

SEA 1B Russell Branyan acquired by SF

1 votes

WAS OF Josh Willingham acquired by SF

8 votes

WAS 1B Nick Johnson acquired by SF

5 votes

FLA 2B Dan Uggla acquired by SF

4 votes

CLE 1B Ryan Garko acquired by SF

44 votes

PIT 2B Freddy Sanchez acquired by SF

18 votes

CLE 1B/C Vicor Martinez acquired by SF

2 votes

TOR SS Marco Scutaro acquired by SF

3 votes

Other. List in comments.

3 votes

155 votes | Poll has closed

The 600/1200 Rule and Predicting Future All-Stars

marbotty — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:49:22 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Not me.

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I am not a scout. I am not a sabermagician. I have no professional, college, or even high-school baseball experience, either as a player or as part of a front-office or coaching staff.

In fact, my direct association with the game ceased to exist around the 6th grade, when, while picking grass while "manning" right field, I had an epiphany: carrying a lifetime .057 batting average wouldn't be opening any doors for me in the world of baseball.

In other words, I'm no expert. You can take everything I am about to write with a grain of salt, dismiss what I say, and disagree with me entirely.

But be prepared to eat that grain of salt on a serving of crow, as I am 100% correct.

Well, maybe.

Introduction to the 600/1200 Rule

Like clockwork, there is a time each season where I abandon hope of the Royals winning the pennant and instead start to wonder what will happen next year and beyond (see DANSSTOAD). That moment arrived about a week or two ago, and while I still check the boxscores each day, it's less with an interest in seeing the score, and more an eye at individual performances, to see if there's any reason to be optimistic about the future of our younger players.

Specifically, my main concern was whether our core of younger players (Butler, Gordon, Callaspo, and Aviles) would ever be able to hit well enough to anchor a playoff-bound offense, Or, more simply, whether these guys would ever turn into all-stars.

This naturally lead to a couple of questions:

1. How does one define an all-star?

2. Is it even possible to predict if Player X will become an all-star?

I took a bit of an arbitrary approach to #1 -- I defined an "all-star" as any player capable of amassing an .800 OPS or higher. (Similarly, I have defined a player with a .900 OPS or greater as a super-star.)

I'm sure I'll catch a little flack from some on the site, as not all .800 OPS'ers are built the same -- for example, OBP is likely much more important than SLG. That said, an .800 OPS is an .800 OPS, and for a team that's only featured four guys over the last three years to have topped that mark (Callaspo, Sanders, Aviles, and DeJesus), we should be ecstatic if we can add two or three more names to the list, no matter how that OPS was arrived at.

To answer #2, I decided to look at commonalities between all of the players that managed to cross both the .800 OPS and .900 OPS thresholds over the last nine years. What I found was a melange of different playing types, ages, positions, and backgrounds. Some of the guys on the list were perennial all-stars (Pujols, A-Rod, etc.), some guys who were rookie sensations (Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria), and some were guys that seemed to come out of nowhere (Russell Branyan, Nelson Cruz, Jack Cust, Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez.)

It was this last group, the Late Bloomers, that intrigued me the most -- with little exception, the majority of these players had been in the league for a few years, perhaps sporting a decent minor league pedigree, but never showing enough at the major league level to warrant extended playing time.

Despite the seeming disparity in player profiles, after a bit of digging, I was a bit surprised how easy it was to spot future all-stars. They all had the same thing in common -- and I was even more surprised that I had never come across this idea previously, even though it intuitively made sense. Maybe this has been explored and discussed countless places before, maybe it''s already so obvious to the majority of baseball fans that it doesn't even warrant discussion, even among casual observers of the game. But this discovery was new to me, so there's likely one or two of you that will find this at least a little interesting.

So what was the common thread?

Basically, there were two central precepts at play here. Which leads to Rule #1:

Rule 1: The first 600 at bats in a player's career don't
matter...

After looking at the career statistics of all 100+ players who had managed to post an OPS of .800 or greater over the 2000 - 2009 seasons, one thing proved to be true. No matter how poorly they had done in their initial 600 at bats (even if spread across several seasons), it had little to no bearing on how they would perform later on. This was almost universally true for all of the future all-stars, with only a handful of exceptions (roughly 6 - 7 %) which I'll get into later.

Here are but a few examples of how the first 600 at bats are irrelevant:

Jermaine Dye
1996 ATL 292 at bats OPS .763
1997 KC 263 at bats OPS .653
Career OPS .830

Mike Sweeney
1996 KC 165 at bats OPS .770
1997 KC 240 at bats OPS .668
1998 KC 282 at bats OPS .728
Career OPS .854

Hideki Matsui
2003 NY 623 at bats OPS .788
Career OPS .847

Raul Ibanez
1997 SEA 26 at bats OPS .500
1998 SEA 98 at bats OPS .699
1999 SEA 209 at bats OPS .734
2000 SEA 140 at bats OPS .630
Career OPS .829

Adam Lind
2007 TOR 290 at bats OPS .678
2008 TOR 326 at bats OPS .755
2009 TOR 269 at bats OPS .915

The list literally goes on and on, but I think you get the idea. Whether you chalk up this phenomenon to small sample sizes or as a "necessary adjustment period" to major league pitching -- the fact is, you shouldn't dismiss a player based on his first 600 at bats, particularly if the player has shown a tendency to hit well in the minors. What's sort of interesting is that age really doesn't play a factor -- it's mainly a function of opportunity.

Another cool example is Casey Blake, who is OPS'ing over .881 right now. Here's his first 6 years in the majors:

1999 .677 OPS
2000 .646 OPS
2001 .746 OPS (NY) .521 OPS (BAL)
2002 .521 OPS
2003 .723 OPS

Blake was 26 years old when he logged his first ML at bat, and it wasn't until age 30 when he got extended playing time in 2003 (557 at bats). It would have been very easy to write him off as a scrub based on those pitiful numbers. One thing to realize is that he had only logged just a shy over 600 at bats from 1999 - 2003 (including his 557 at bats in 2003). So, according to the 600 rule (which I am stretching a bit here, if only slightly), you shouldn't give up on him. And true to the rule, he's OPS'd over .800 in 3 of the 6 years since.

Of course, there are a few instances where common sense dictates that it is indeed okay to give up on the player, like with Tony Pena, Jr., where there's nothing in either his major league or minor league profile that would suggest he would ever hit better than he does currently.

Considering the mildly disappointing starts to both Gordon and Butler's careers, (and "disappointment" is of course subjective and debatable), this was encouraging news, as their sub .800 OPS's seemed to belie what was their true talent. But then I discovered rule #2:

Rule #2: ...But the first 1200 at bats do matter.

Almost without fail, everyone who has posted a .800+ OPS season over the last ten years has posted an OPS of .800 within at least one 500-600 at bat stretch during his initial 1200 at bats.

Among all of the players who had managed an .800 OPS in a single season from 2000 - 2009, about 93% had posted at least an .800 OPS in one of their first two seasons (or equivalent). For those players who had managed to make it to superstar level (.900 OPS or higher), the baseline was an OPS of about .850 OPS during one or both of their first two seasons.

What's interesting here is that this was true across the board, regardless of position. For example, you may have often heard, like I had, that catchers take a long time to develop.

It is for this reason that for years I have waited patiently for John Buck to blossom into an all-star caliber hitter. He had often showed flashes, he had the build, but he just hadn't put it all together. Had I applied the 1200 rule after his first 1200 or so at bats, I would have realized earlier that my waiting was in vain.

The simple truth is, if a player is ever going to hit .800 OPS or greater over a sustained period of time, the proof of their ability to do so should be evident within their first two years. A brief look at all of the premiere hitting catchers (Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Jorge Posada, Javy Lopez, Joe Mauer) over the last ten years has proven this to be true. It didn't take them years to adjust -- they basically came up and started hitting -- if not in year one, in year two.

In other words -- if you're good enough to start hitting, you're going to do it right away, otherwise it's not going to happen.

Of course, sometimes it does happen. Sometimes a guy who fails to post an .800 in their first 1200 at bats goes on to have an excellent career.

Ironically enough, this was the case with our own Carlos Beltran (though he logged a .791 in his first full year), and there are a handful of other guys to which this applies (Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, and Sammy Sosa are among some of the more notable guys) These counter-examples are rare, and even in most of the cases, if they didn't clear .800 in their first 1200, they did it in their first 1800. And while it's probably a little unfair to note, some of these guys were heavily rumored, if not confirmed, to have used steroids, so there's at least the possibility that they've skewed the results.

The corollary is the other type of guy who posts an .800 season without having one in his first 1200 at bats. These are the flukes -- the Edgar Renteria's, the Juan Encarnacion's, or the Shea Hillebrand's. At most, they will likely only provide one or two more .800 OPS seasons, but it is usually a crapshoot when and where that will occur.

While some of these players may add value to their team defensively, the odds are very heavily against them repeating their .800+ seasons, so astute general managers will know not to rely on them to be offensive sparkplugs for their respective teams.

Not so astute general managers end up spending millions of dollars on guys like Gary Matthews, Jr., and to a lesser extent, Jose Guillen. While the Rule of 1200 may tell you who will become a star, it's just as likely, if not more likely, to tell you who won't become a star (or maintain their current stardom.)

What does this mean for the Royals?

What's sort of unique about the four players I mentioned at the top of this agonizingly long post was that they all could go either way with this, depending on how generous you feel.

Right now, only Aviles is in the running for future all-star, under these two rules. Although of the four, he's the one I feel least likely to actually be able to capitalize. Most of Aviles' offensive value was tied up in a very unsustainable high batting average. It would appear his .800+ OPS of 2008 was a fluke, but considering the current state of the Royals, it wouldn't hurt to give him a season to prove otherwise.

Callaspo's probably in the best shape under this scenario, provided he's able to keep on his current pace. His minor league numbers provide a lot of reason for optimism here, too.

As for Gordon and Butler, it's difficult to get too excited. A year ago, I saw a future George Brett and David Ortiz. Now, and especially in light of the trend I've seen among the players I surveyed, it seems more likely we're looking at something like Shea Hillebrand and John Olerud. Not terrible, but certainly a let down considering the hype surrounding these players.

Of course, Butler still has about 400 at bats remaining of his 1200, so if he picks things up, we can begin to dream a little again. And even if he doesn't manage, he's still young, but if this study proved anything, it doesn't matter what age people are when they get their chance -- they'll either hit right away or they won't. And if they don't, there's little reason to expect they'll start doing it later.

Poll

What else does this mean?

It's not too late to bring back Justin Huber

141 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

Career WAR Trifecta Quiz

Sky Kalkman — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:00:18 -0000

I'm going to present ten sets of three well-known players who were major leaguers in the retrosheet era. Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to identify which player in each set accumulated the most career WAR (through 2008), as calculated by Sean Smith. The leader will have at least 5 WAR more than the other two players, to make the difference at least somewhat significant. (In fact, the worst player in each group will have at least 5 WAR less than either of the better two players, too, so you can shoot for extra credit by identifying the trailer, too.)

Now, career WAR is what is it, which is not the best measure of "best player". Holding on for five years at 2 WAR will add significant career value, but it doesn't impress me as much as two seasons of 5 WAR. That aside, here are the ten sets of players. Who has the most career WAR?

Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle
Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Bert Blyleven
Robin Yount, Pete Rose, Carl Yastrzemski
Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux
Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones
Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg
Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey Jr.
Chuck Finley, Luis Gonzalez, Jim Rice
Jim Kaat, Mariano Rivera, Fred McGriff
Andy Pettitte, David Cone, David Wells

Answers after the jump.

Here are the answers, with the players listed in descending order according to career WAR totals.

Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle
Phil Niekro, Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan
Carl Yastrzeski, Pete Rose, Robin Yount
Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson
Chipper Jones, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz
Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, Ryne Sandberg
Chuck Finley, Luis Gonzalez, Jim Rice
Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones
Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, Jim Kaat
David Cone, David Wells, Andy Pettitte

How'd you do?

The Horror of American League Parks

Eric Stephen — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 22:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

U.S. Cellular Field is one of three AL parks the Dodgers will try to conquer this month.

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Since the beginning of the 2005 season, the Dodgers have played 33 games in American League ballparks. They have won only five of those games. They haven't been terribly unlucky either. They have scored 100 runs (3.03 per game) and given up 190 (5.76 per game), so their pythagorean record is only two games better, at 7-26. They have only had five one-run games, and they've lost them all.

They have been victimized by a vengeful Jose Lima, ran into Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano at their peaks in Minnesota, been bested by Mark Buehrle on the South Side, had their asses handed to them by Roy Halladay north of the border, lost to former farmhand Edwin Jackson in St. Petersburg, and been demonized by many Angels in Anaheim.

Part of the reason for this awful stretch has been poor starting pitching. In those 33 fateful games, Dodger starting pitchers have lasted 5.74 innings per start, which is decent enough, but they have a 5.61 ERA and a 1.468 WHIP.

The bigger problem is the Dodgers' utter inability to fill the designated hitter role with any production. Over this dreadful period, Dodger designated hitters are "hitting" .203/.266/.289, with one home run (by Luis Gonzalez) in 33 games. The chief culprit has been Olmedo Saenz, who has started 14 of the 33 games at DH, but he has been joined by such luminaries as Juan Pierre, Marlon Anderson, Antonio Perez, Kenny Lofton, Mark Sweeney, and Andruw Jones.

Here's a quick rundown the Dodgers' last 11 interleague road series.

Year	Opponent	W	L	Comment
2008	Detroit	0	3	The low point of 2008; the Kershaw rain start
2008	Angels	1	2	At least they won one
2007	Tampa Bay	1	2	The revenge of Edwin Jackson
2007	Toronto	2	1	Only series win; Chad Billingsley rejoined the rotation for good
2007	Angels	0	3	Dodgers scored 4 runs in 3 games
2006	Angels	1	2	This snapped a 15-game AL road losing streak
2006	Minnesota	0	3	Johan and the peak of Liriano
2006	Oakland	0	3	Included a 17-inning loss
2005	Angels	0	3	Dodger starters went 7 each game; still got swept
2005	White Sox	0	3	Two last-AB wins for Chicago, including a 4-run 9th off Brazoban
2005	Royals	0	3	The Lima Game II
Totals		5	28	The Dodgers are due

This year's AL gauntlet takes the Dodgers to Texas and Anaheim during the next two weekends, followed by Chicago to play the White Sox from June 23-25. But this year's Dodger team has been the best team in baseball so far. They have met just about every challenge thus far, so how about some wins in an AL park, huh?