SB Nation - Matt Kemp

Dodgers Value Important Portables; Fans Need Potent Potables

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:16:27 -0000

Tired of long lines at Dodger Stadium? Don't worry, portable concession stands are on the way!

I have read and re-read Bill Shaikin's interview with Dodger President Dennis Mannion in the LA Times many times, trying to wrap my head around it. Every time I see the words, I get angry. Angry that the Dodgers have a man in Mannion running the baseball operations who doesn't seem to have a clue how teams are built.

On potentially receiving draft picks for offering Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson arbitration:

And is it worth a premium draft pick? That's also showing bizarre behavior, in my opinion, in terms of teams bidding against themselves for draft picks. That's been going on for a while on the amateur side of the business. But it's happening now on the international side, with guys you don't know anything about.

It's strange to me to see teams operate in a way where they bid against themselves for unknown talent, and at the same time, you have this plethora of guys in the system that maybe are not developing appropriately, i.e. a (Ronald) Belisario. That's interesting stuff to me. I think it's really fascinating. It's probably the upside of having very tough economic times.

Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Bilingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Ramon Troncoso, just to name a few, were all acquired by the Dodgers as amateurs. Young talent is the driving force behind a Dodger team that has reached two straight National League Championship Series. But Mannion -- who runs the baseball operations for the team, by the way -- doesn't see their value.

Mannion uses a diversion tactic here. Draft picks are a crap shoot, he says, but hey, look over here. Remember when we signed Ronald Belisario out of nowhere? Look, something shiny. Look over here instead!

My advice to Mannion, in order to deal with the problem of "guys you don't know anything about," is this: That's what scouts are for. You have Logan White. Use him.

Shaikin then asked about the concern over the cost of extra draft picks (Shaikin's question is in bold):

Since Wolf probably would have signed a long-term contract somewhere else even if the Dodgers had offered him arbitration, how worried were you about the millions it might cost to sign the draft picks you would have gotten in return?

You're dealing with a very fluid situation. Those millions that are potentially in play, they can manifest themselves where the opportunity is. If the opportunity is in buying more portable concession stands, then that's what you do. If the opportunity is buying some international talent that you have a very good handle on, that's what you do. In this particular world, you're making those assessments on a daily basis.

I like being able to have more opportunities to buy a hefeweizen and a Dodger Dog as much as the next guy, but I'd rather have a few more draft picks. Mannion uses another diversion tactic here: he was asked about draft picks, and answered about a choice between stadium upgrades and amateur international talent. Mannion's "portable concession stands" rings as hollow as Jamie McCourt's "50 Little League fields" comments last season.

I don't know how many times we've talked about this since the season ended, but the Dodgers will be good in 2010. There is too much talent still around to think otherwise. But investing in player development isn't a one-time event. I just hope the Dodgers figure it out before the cupboard runs dry.

Loney's Improvement a Key for 2010

Eric Stephen — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 05:18:39 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Including the playoffs, James Loney hit 13 of his 15 home runs on the road in 2009

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If this offseason has taught us anything so far, it's that the Dodger roster as it stands now, four days before Christmas, won't be much different than the one that opens the regular season on April 5 in Pittsburgh. The core of the team will carry this team as far as it's going to go. Most of that nucleus is young and on the upswing, which is good for a team that needs their improvement to fuel another postseason run.

These young players also fit a key requirement to be a Dodger these days, in that they are cheap, at least relatively so. Using Wins Above Replacement (on Fangraphs), the Dodgers' two best players last season were Matt Kemp (5.0 WAR) and Clayton Kershaw (4.2 WAR, tied with Casey Blake). Those two made a combined $871,000 in 2009, meaning they were two of the most valuable players in baseball. Many of these young players are due for raises in 2010, as the Dodgers lead baseball with nine arbitration-eligible players.

One of the most intriguing stories of 2010 will be the performance of first baseman James Loney. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time, and he will probably make somewhere between $3 million to $3.5 million next season. Loney has just over three years of service time, and here are some comparable first basemen heading into their fourth year in recent seasons:

			Stats Through 3rd Year
First Baseman	Year	Service Time	OPS+	Runs	RBI	4th Year Salary
Adam LaRoche	2007	3 years	114	187	213	$3.2 million
Kevin Youkilis	2008	3 yrs, 93 days	109	234	199	$3 million
Mike Jacobs	2009	3 yrs, 47 days	110	197	247	$3.25 million
James Loney	2010	3 yrs, 12 days	112	200	265	???
Service time courtesy of the great Cot's Baseball Contracts

Loney is not quite at the crossroads of his Dodger career, but he is getting closer. He plays first base, the most offensive-minded position in baseball, while last season Loney had a slugging percentage of .399. It's one thing to accept relatively low production from your first baseman when he is making $465,000, as Loney did in 2009, because the team can theoretically use the savings to spend money on other positions. Now that Loney will likely make $3 million or more, it's time to look at first base with a more critical eye.

I'm not saying it's time to cut bait on Loney. He will turn 26 in April, about to enter a time which is often considered the prime of a player's career. He also has the extreme home/road splits (.709 career OPS at Dodger Stadium, .900 OPS on the road), and if anyone can figure out how to harness Road Loney at home the Dodgers will benefit greatly. We can also look to the recent past to find another Dodger first baseman who struggled as he entered his arbitration seasons.

Eric Karros -- who is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this season, by the way -- was once in the very same shoes worn by Loney today. Karros won rookie of the year in 1992, hitting 20 home runs with 88 runs batted in, then struggled over the next two seasons. Loney took over Dodger first base duties in June 2007, and hit .331 with 15 dingers, only to descend into mediocrity over his next two seasons.

	Eric Karros		James Loney
	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)
1st year	1992	106 (9th of 12)	2007	134 (4th of 16)
2nd year	1993	88 (13th of 15)	2008	103 (13th of 16)
3rd year	1994	95 (10th of 14)	2009	104 (13th of 16)

Heading into their first arbitration-eligible seasons, here's how Karros and Loney compare:

Pre Arbitration Years
Player	Years	Ages	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Eric Karros	1991-1994	23-26	1710	188	79	57	215	.254/.298/.417	95
James Loney	2006-2009	22-25	1788	200	84	45	265	.295/.354/.451	112

Loney doesn't look so bad now, does he? That .298 on-base percentage for Karros really stands out. I don't remember caring too much about OBP back then, but wow. However, here is what Karros did during his three seasons of arbitration:

Eric Karros Arbitration Years
Year	Age	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
1995	27	620	83	29	32	105	.298/.369/.535	145
1996	28	670	84	29	34	111	.260/.316/.479	113
1997	29	700	86	28	31	104	.266/.329/.459	110
Totals		1990	253	86	97	320	.274/.337/.489	122

Throw in the fact that Loney is a year younger than Karros was, and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Loney comes into his own over the next three seasons. He'll pretty much have to, because the Dodgers need it.

Fantasy Baseball: UBA Keeper League Trades

raygu — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:00:22 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

3 months ago: Cincinnati Reds shortstop Paul Janish, front, fields the throw as Colorado Rockies' Eric Young, Jr., steals second base in the third inning of the Rockies' 5-1 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Thursday, Sept. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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I have mentioned in several of my posts recently that I have traded for some minor league prospects in my "Big" NL-only keeper league called the UBA league. I joined this league 3 years ago taking over a team that had finished in 11th place the previous year. I immediately started trading my best keepers in several 2-1 deals to improve my roster.

My first year in the UBA league was strange because, I decided in mid-late May to bail on the season and started trading my most productive players for cheap keepers and minor league prospects. But, as the season went along, I slowly crept up in the league standings to the point that I decided to change course and go for it. As it turned out, I finished 3rd that year and in the money.

In fact, I have finished in 3rd place in each of my 3 years in the UBA league, but last year's finish hurt the most. I traded some of my better minor league prospects (Andrew McCutchen and Jason Heyward to name a few) and Matt Kemp during the season to only finish in 3rd. Not what I expected when I made the deals obviously.

So this offseason, I have again decided to gut my team of my best keepers to rebuild, as I did in my first year in the league. Here is a summary of the deals I have made this offseason:

more after the jump:

Traded $10 S1 Casey McGehee for $5 S2 Yonder Alonso

Traded $1 S1 Wandy Rodriguez for $10 S1 Brandon Allen, $5 S2 Domonic Brown and the #7 pick in the minor league draft

Traded $23 S1 Andre Ethier for $5 S2 Michael Stanton, $5 S2 Jose Tabata and $5 S2 Andrew Lambo

Traded $22 S1 Huston Street for $10 S1 Eric Young and the #13 pick in the minor league draft

Brandon Allen and Young have a shot at making a fantasy impact in 2010. Allen, as it stands right now, should be the starting first baseman for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2010, but he didn't help himself in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .177 and struck out 33 times. He also struck out alot in his cup of coffee with the DBacks in August and September. Young, on the other hand, could end up in AAA to start the 2010 season as Rockies manager Jim Tracey loves him some Clint Barmes. Not sure why. Maybe it's the .220 batting average, but he is a good fielding second baseman. I think Young could play enough in 2010 to steal 20+ bases. Hopefully they aren't in AAA. Should he land a starting job out of spring training, he could steal 35+ bases.

I also targeted prospects who I think should make a fantasy impact in 2011, with a couple who could make their big-league debut in 2010. There is a good possibility that Jose Tabata will be given a chance to play everyday come June 2010. The Marlins Michael Stanton could also see some time in Florida this season, especially if he can improve upon his AA performance in 2009. In 299 ABs at AA Jacksonville, Stanton went 16-53-.231-.311-.455-.766.

In Domonic Brown and Andrew Lambo, I received two outfielders who could be starting in 2011. Brown could be ready to take over for free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, should the Phillies let Werth leave via free agency. Lambo had a disappointing season in AA Chattanooga as his power numbers dropped. But Dodgers director of scouting Logan White and director of player development DeJon Watson both feel Lambo can ave a break out power season in 2010. Time will tell.

As a result of these moves, I am left with alot of question marks in my keeper list, but I will have about $185 to spend at the draft, so the draft will be real interesting since it is full of power hitters like Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, and Mark Reynolds (my worst non-raise decision ever) among others.

Poll

How did I do in my offseason deals?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

28 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

NL West in Review: Center Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:00:29 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Don't forget about this guy.

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Matt Kemp was a beast this season, but that doesn't mean the Dodgers had the best CF spot last season. For the second straight week, Los Angeles surprisingly gets pushed to second place by a team without a primary starter.

San Diego started the season with Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut platooning in center field, but by the All-Star break, both had been jettisoned, with the only returning position player being their new center fielder who had been in AAA all season to that point.

But don't let Petco Park and the constant new faces fool you. The Padres were strong in center field last season.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Diego	6	.292	17	65	.356	.445	.358	5.37
2. Los Angeles	4	.292	24	98	.350	.472	.371	4.97
3. San Francisco	4	.266	17	79	.305	.419	.332	2.76
4. Colorado	4	.269	17	58	.345	.451	.341	2.14
5. Arizona	5	.219	17	61	.288	.379	.291	-1.18

Hairston saved almost all his San Diego offense for his CF starts, posting a ridiculous .458 wOBA in 148 PA. His eventual replacement, Tony Gwynn Jr, had the best OBP in the division outside of Hairston matched with fantastic defensive play. That was enough to supersede the Dodgers, who had neutral defense and just a 13 point wOBA* edge. This can teach us two things - it is indeed a team game, and don't discredit the Padres' offense, as Petco Park can mask a lot.

All the proof and stats are under the fold.

Here's your visual breakdown, with the CF positional RAR set at +2.5. The Dodgers' team UZR is indeed included; however, it is equal to exactly zero:

The bottom three slots of the NL West's 23 center fielders are occupied by Diamondbacks. For the full player rankings, click here.

With three years and $36million remaining on that bad contract, Rowand is sufficiently entrenched in center field in the near future. He had a complete no-trade clause last season, but has a "limited no-trade clause" each of the three years. I'm fine if he stays in San Francisco until 2012.

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

Eric Stephen — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:14:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Randy Wolf tries to emulate the feelings of Dodger fans today

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I don't know what to say anymore.

The Dodgers declined to offer arbitration to all seven of their Type A and Type B free agents today, most notably Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. This means the Dodgers will receive no compensation if any of the free agents sign elsewhere.

I already covered the reasons for and/or against offering arbitration, and I expected to be disappointed today. But not to this extent. On some level, I can understand the argument for not offering arbitration to Hudson, even if I don't fully agree with it. However, not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is just wrong. Wolf is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and is sure to get a multi-year offer somewhere, so he would have likely declined arbitration.

In Wolf and Hudson, the Dodgers had two players that should be welcomed back if they chose to accept arbitration, and they only would be signed to one-year deals. Sure, they might be a tad pricey, but both provide value at or exceeding their worth, and again, it would just be for one year, and only if they accepted arbitration. Could it be that the Dodgers are so strapped for cash that they can't accept even the slightest risk of paying two talented players for one season?

Or is it worse than that? Do the Dodgers not want the burden of having four extra draft picks in 2010, the burden of four extra signing bonuses, possibly totaling somewhere in the $4 million range?

What other excuse could there be besides money? Because if this were strictly a baseball decision, both Wolf and Hudson would have been offered arbitration.

These are short-sighted moves by the Dodgers. Look at this team. The 2009 Dodgers only had the best record in the National League, and they were fueled by a young group of players once drafted by the Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier (OK, he was drafted by the A's), Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, Russell Martin. Unfortunately, you can't continue the process of integrating fresh, new talent into the mix if you don't have the picks to draft them, or if you don't utilize the ones you have. The Dodgers may have potentially saved some money with today's decisions, but they missed a golden opportunity to invest in the future.

It is now apparent to me that general manager Ned Colletti's hands are tied by purse strings. He will have his work cut out for him this offseason, which seems like it could be a long one for Dodger fans.

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:55:11 -0000

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story, THT compares WAR to Win Shares. THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares

Player	Win Shares
Matt Kemp	26
Andre Ethier	21
Orlando Hudson	20
Casey Blake	19
James Loney	18
Manny Ramirez	18
Rafael Furcal	17
Russell Martin	16
Jon Broxton	16
Randy Wolf	14
Juan Pierre	12
Clayton Kershaw	12
Chad Billingsley	9
Ramon Troncoso	8
Ronaldo Belisario	7
Hiroki Kuroda	5
Jeff Weaver	5
G Mota	4
Hong-Chih Kuo	3
Mark Loretta	3
James McDonald	3
Brad Ausmus	3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Order	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Shares
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	2nd	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	3rd	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	4th	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	T-5th	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	T-8th	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1979	22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman

Player	TWS	Pos
Garvey, Steve	223	1st
Karros, Eric	175	1st
Parker, Wes	146	1st
Murray, Eddie	68	1st
Loney, James	51	1st
Brock, Greg	47	1st
Hodges, Gil	37	1st
Garciaparra, Nomar	29	1st
Farily, Ron	142	1st/OF
Mike, Marshall	108	1st/OF
Buckner, Billy	80	1st/OF
Larker, Norm	35	1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin	34	1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Pos	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1979	22
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1989	21
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1977	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1963	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1962	21
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1999	20
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1996	20
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1965	20
Garciaparra, Nomar	1st	29	2006	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2002	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1997	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1971	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1969	18
Loney, James	1st	51	2009	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1966	17
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1964	17
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1959	17
Loney, James	1st	51	2007	16
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1991	16
Loney, James	1st	51	2008	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1985	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1983	15
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1982	15
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1967	15
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1961	15
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2000	14
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1972	14
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1960	14
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1992	13
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1981	13
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1968	12
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1958	12
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1973	11
Buckner, Billy	1st	80	1973	11
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1993	10
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1987	9
Brock, Gregg	1st	47	1986	9
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2001	8
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1984	8
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1959	8
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1994	7
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1958	7
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1988	6
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1961	6
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1961	5
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1959	5
Loney, James	1st	51	2006	3
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1964	3
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1960	3
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1958	2

A Look Back At Pedro Guerrero

Eric Stephen — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:20:07 -0000

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MLB Network is showing a slew of old All-Star games and highlights this Thanksgiving weekend, and I stumbled across the 1981 All-Star Game on Friday. This game was on August 9, later than any other midsummer classic, because of the nearly two-month long strike. This game, from Cleveland's Municipal Stadium, was the kickoff to the "second half" of the season.

I tuned in during the bottom of the seventh inning, and noticed Dusty Baker in left field, incidentally during the only season besides Matt Kemp's 2009 in which a Dodger outfielder captured Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards. It turns out that I missed the pitching performances of Dodgers Fernando Valenzuela and Burt Hooton, but I also missed the All-Star debut of one Pedro Guerrero.

Guerrero will always hold a special place in my heart, as he was the best hitter on those mid-eighties Dodger teams when I first started watching regularly. My first full season as a fan was 1985, and Guerrero put on a show that season. He caught fire in June, tying a record for the month by hitting 15 home runs, then amazingly was even better in July, hitting .460/.563/.794.

I remember looking at the back of his baseball cards, and noticing Guerrero had good seasons in 1982 & 1983 -- he finished third and fourth, respectively, in the NL MVP voting in those years -- but I was surprised to notice him in the 1981 All-Star Game. In 1982 & 1983, Guerrero hit the magical 30 & 100 numbers, the only time a Dodger had 30 home runs and 100 RBI in between Steve Garvey in 1977 and Mike Piazza in 1993. But in 1981, he only played in 98 games, so I had always dismissed that season as a partial one for "Pete." I knew he ended up as one of the tri-MVPs of the World Series that year, but the low counting numbers always stuck in my mind. I forgot about the strike, of course. Guerrero was in fact a regular player that season, as the season was limited to 110 games. Guerrero started 93 of those games, including 51 of 57 in the "first half" (before the strike).

He was hitting .325/.375/.550 at the break in 1981, one of the best marks in the league. That got me to thinking, just how good was Guerrero? He missed most of 1986 after injuring his leg sliding into third base during spring training, so I will concentrate on 1981-1985, when Guerrero played regularly.

Year	G	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
1981	98	46	12	48	.300	.365	.464	.829	138
1982	150	87	32	100	.304	.378	.536	.914	156
1983	160	87	32	103	.298	.373	.531	.904	150
1984	144	85	16	72	.303	.358	.462	.819	131
1985	137	99	33	87	.320	.422	.577	.999	181
Totals	689	404	125	410	.305	.380	.517	.897	152

Guerrero's 1981-1985 was one of the greatest five-year stretches in Dodger history:

Highest 5-Year OPS+ in Dodger History
Player	Years	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	OPS+
Mike Piazza	1993-1997	.337/.401/.583	.984	164
Duke Snider	1953-1957	.311/.407/.618	1.025	161
Reggie Smith	1976-1980	.299/.389/.532	.921	153
Pedro Guerrero	1981-1985	.305/.380/.517	.897	152

How did Guerrero compare to the rest of baseball during that stretch? Very, very well. There were 137 players in MLB who had 2,000 plate appearances, and here is where Guerrero stood:

Pedro Guerrero 1981-1985
Stat	Guerrero	MLB Rank
AVG	.305	5th
OBP	.380	12th
SLG	.517	4th
OPS	.897	4th
OPS+	152	3rd
HR	125	10th
Runs	404	16th
RBI	410	t-15th

I always felt bad for Guerrero in that he was traded in August 1988 and didn't get a chance to get another ring with the Dodgers, but he did have a great run in Dodger blue.