SB Nation - Nomar Garciaparra

Marco Scutaro: Stopgap For Now Or Something Better?

Randy Booth — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 07:45:59 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

6 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro bobbles a grounder by Boston Red Sox's Jacoby Ellsbury, before throwing Ellsbury out in the second inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston on Tuesday, May 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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I really hope Theo Epstein proves all of us wrong about Marco Scutaro.

The Red Sox's general manager has tried so hard to replace shortstop Nomar Garciaparra since his departure in 2004. And he's done that -- kind of. But he hasn't had anyone that has stuck.

Orlando Cabrera was a nice temporary solution in '04. Alex Gonzalez was very solid in his 2006 stint and especially in his resurrection in 2009. But there hasn't been a staple at the shortstop position since Mr. Nomar and now, with Scutaro, what are Sox fans supposed to expect?

By no means is Scutaro supposed to be that staple. Scutaro is 34 years old who is riding a reported two-year contract with a mutual option for a third. That means we could have a 36-year-old shortstop with one good year on our hands by the end of 2012.

Don't y'all jump for joy at the same time.

Theo is praying for lightning to strike twice. Theo is praying that Jose Iglesias becomes the shortstop that everyone thinks he could be. Theo is hoping that Scutaro plays all right. Nothing more. Just all right.

To put it simply, Scutaro is a stopgap. Scutaro will most likely be an average offensive shortstop while manning the position defensively to the same degree. Iglesias is the important piece here. Iglesias is the only player that's anywhere close to being Boston's "Next Nomar."

We can't really blame Theo for signing Scutaro. There weren't a lot of great options out there with a '6' penciled in next to their name in the scorecard. It would have taken a lot to acquire a shortstop via trade, and the pickings in the free agent market were about as good as buying a fresh tomato at a farmers' market in December: all of them are bruised, damaged and have their flaws, but in the end, you have to pick one.

But now he's here and we have to root for him because that's what we do. After two World Series championships and a plethora of other reasons, we just need to sit back and trust Theo. We must trust him that he has signed a capable shortstop to help lead the Sox to another World Series trophy. We must trust him that he sees something in Scutaro that maybe the rest of us do not see. We must trust Theo because, pretty much, that's our only option.

Marco, welcome to Boston. Your first task: prove us wrong. Please prove us wrong as quickly and effectively as possible.

Please.

Theo Tries Again: Marco Scutaro Signs with the Red Sox

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:28:00 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

7 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro, top, leaps to catch the throw from the plate as Baltimore Orioles' Adam Jones steals second base during eighth-inning AL baseball game action in Toronto on Friday, May 1, 2009. (AP photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

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Theo Esptein has taken another swing at filling the shortstop position for the Red Sox, signing free agent Marco Scutaro to a 2-year deal.

News came from Venezuelan paper Lider first, over an hour before other sources confirmed the move.

A type-A free agent, Scutaro's signing will require a draft pick compensation, though if the Sox sign a higher-ranked free agent such as Matt Holliday, the Jays will only receive a second round pick from the Sox instead of a first.

Scutaro is coming off a career year during which he posted a line of .282/.379/.409 while playing above average defense according to UZR.

For the Red Sox, Scutaro provides hope for some consistency at shortstop. Since the departure of Nomar Garciaparra and Orlando Cabrera, the Sox have struggled to find a replacement, with disappointing performances from Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. Alex Gonzalez played solid defense in 2006, and again in the last half of 2009, but was a significant hole in the lineup.

The deal is expected to be announced tommorow (Friday), likely with a mutual option for a third year.

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:28:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Was it Divine intervention that prevented the Atlanta Braves from signing Rafael Furcal... or just his agents.

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Last off-season the Atlanta Braves announced they had come to terms with free agent Rafael Furcal on a three-year contract... but less than 24-hours later Furcal had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the aftermath of that episode, Braves President John Schuerholtz stated that the Braves would never again do business with Furcal's agents, the Wasserman Group, headed by super-agent Arn Tellem.

As a side note to this, if we had signed Furcal, then we would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field, we never would have signed Garret Anderson, and Martin Prado may never have emerged as a bona fide major league starter at second base. And we might have traded Yunel Escobar somewhere. Things tend to work out for the best sometimes, as Furcal layed an egg in 2009.

Here are the free agents this off-season who are represented by the Wasserman Group, and are therefore off-limits to the Braves (courtesy of MLBTR):

Wilson Betemit
Aaron Boone
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
John Grabow
Rich Harden
Shawn Hill
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Hideki Matsui
Jason Michaels
Guillermo Mota
Vicente Padilla
Wily Mo Pena
Joel Pineiro
Matt Treanor
Randy Wolf
Omar Vizquel

I must say that there's no one I really want on that list, so for this year at least, no harm, no foul.

11/3 - More Front Office Work

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:15:13 -0000

We've been in Hot Stove mode for a while now, and there's no reason to stop now.

Trade Market: Third Basemen - MLBTradeRumors.com

Trade Market: Left Fielders - MLBTradeRumors.com

Anyone stand out as viable option? Well, some people have everything figured out for us, so we don't even have to worry ourselves with the issue:

Time To Change Their Ways: Signing Bay Needs To Be a Red Sox Priority - Bleacher Report

There are no equivalent alternatives. It’s Bay or Matt Holliday (yikes) or some one-year stopgap in left. Or it’s trading a handful of prospects to find a player who best compares with a player you already have. The options aren’t exactly appealing.

Had to read through half the article to find the money quote: Anyone who is scared of Holliday, please try to convince OTHER teams of this.

Overpaying Orlando Cabrera Could Be Dangerous Risk For Red Sox - NESN.com

And if the Red Sox are willing to grant second chances to Gonzalez, who seemed to be past his prime and had found little success in the American League, why wouldn't they grant the same courtesy to Orlando Cabrera?

Because that makes no sense? It's a "dangerous risk" because we'd be playing a crappy SS, one who would be overpaid for pretty much any price he demands.

Now here's a decent idea:

Building a Package for Javier Vazquez - Yawkey Way Academy

Now we just have to 1) convince most Sox fans that it would be a good trade, and 2) figure out who we'd give up for him.

After the jump, Fielding Bible awards released, more decade wrap-up stuff, a preview for next season, and concerns about parity.

Red Sox come up empty in Fielding Bible Awards - Full Count

Fielding Bible's site isn't in love with the SB Nation interface, so I'll indirectly link y'all. Oddly, Hill was below average by UZR. Hmm...

Team of the Decade? - Fenway West

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SS: Nomar Garciaparra - Fire Brand of the American League

How DARE they forget Jed! [joke]

Inbox: Will Varitek be back next season? - redsox.com: News

Lazy fans who can't research stuff for themselves, asking a beat reporter for anwsers, and then likely never checking for answers. Such a weird process.

Dark Days Ahead, Sox Fans - Sox vs. Stripes

Take it away, guys. Consider this the anxiety venting link.

Bill Reynolds: Major League Baseball’s lack of parity gets to me - The Providence Journal

But somewhere along the way the inequity of Major League Baseball, the decided sense that to the victor belongs the spoils and everyone else eats cake, has gotten to me.

Not the best argument being made here. Anyone want to try to improve on this, or to destroy the argument instead?

Links, comments, support for Pedro over Petitte, etc.

Are These the Guys We Wanted?

Jesse — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:00 -0000

Every year we have a little wish-list of guys we hope the organization targets. Here are a select few who garnered interest from Twinkie Town or from the Twins organization. In no particular order...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Cruz	3-4	46	0	0	0	2	4	50.1	46	34	32	6	29	38	5.72	1.49

He's always been a bit of a loose cannon, but at least he was striking out people with such regularity and consistency that he could get himself out of as much trouble as he got himself into. This year the strikeout rate was nearly cut in half, his LOB& dropped from 83.6% in 2007 to a miserable 62.1% this season. He was around the strike zone more often, hitters stopped swinging at anything he threw outside of the strike zone and contact was way up. It was a bad season for Cruz, and suffice it to say I'm glad the Twins didn't gamble here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

I think we pretty much got what we expected out of Joe. He was a good defender when he was on the field (15.9 UZR/150), and was a power bat you had to show some respect if you were a pitcher who survived the first half of the Minnesota batting order. Too bad he wasn't around for the post-season, we could have used him.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Hudson	149	551	74	156	35	6	9	62	62	99	8	1	.283	.357	.417

Hot start, and that led to a pretty decent season for the 32-year old second baseman. The Dodgers phased him out toward the end of the season. His defense was better than last year, but was still just south of average if we go by his -2.9 UZR/150. His $3.38 million base salary wasn't bad, but if he signed for that to play with the Dodgers then I'm sure the Twins would have had to pony up a bit more. His incentives made it possible for the year to be worth a full $10 million, all based around plate appearances: $150K for reaching both the 150 and 175 plate appearance mark; $200 K for every 25 plate appearances from 200 - 300; $250 K for every 25 from 325 - 575; $10,000 for EVERY SINGLE plate appearance from 576 - 632. How many PA's did he have this year? 631.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Russ Springer	0-1	48	0	0	0	0	1	41.2	52	20	19	5	14	47	4.10	1.58

Great walk and strikeout rates, but he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher again this year and allowed a bunch of homers as a result--19 is enough for a guy who pitches 200 innings, much less 41.2. His breaking balls and off-speed pitches were almost non-existant, making almost exclusively a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and cutter. Lots of good peripherals for Springer though, and so even though he'll be 41 in November he should still get some interest in the coming months.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jarrod Washburn Mariners Tigers	8-6 1-3	20 8	20 8	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	133.0 43.0	109 51	42 35	39 35	11 12	33 16	79 21	2.64 7.33	1.07 1.56

W-L

SHO

ERA

WHIP

2009 - Jarrod Washburn

Mariners

Tigers

8-6

1-3

133.0

43.0

109

2.64

7.33

1.07

1.56

There were a lot, and I mean a LOT of rumors tying Washburn to the Twins last winter. As good as he was with the Mariners this season, seeing how horrendous he was in his short stint with the Tigers just confirms exactly how much Minnesota didn't need him around. He may have lucked the Twins into an extra win or two early in the season, but he would have given them right back at the end of the year when it counted: barely five inning a start, almost as many runs as he'd had in three times the innings, a disgusting number of homers...no, thank you.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ty Wigginton	122	410	44	112	19	0	11	41	23	57	1	2	.273	.314	.400

The walks dipped slightly after a career year in 2008, but it was the power that literally just disappeared. He couldn't hit fastballs, which is never good, but he wasn't really having success no matter which pitch type he'd swing at. Wigginton's overall contact percentage was constant, and he was even swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but he was making more contact on the ones he did swing at. Which, probably, meant easier outs. It looks like Wigginton's pitch selection just disappeared this year, along with his power, and along with a little bit of bad luck (or maybe just not as much luck as he had last year) his numbers took a major dip. He's a guy I really wanted the Twins to go after.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nomar Garciaparra	65	160	17	45	8	0	3	16	8	28	2	0	.281	.314	.388

This could be the end for Nomar. I did entertain the idea of picking him up for a bench option, as a guy who could start as a DH versus southpaws while playing a couple innings at third here and there. Another one of my crackpot ideas, clearly.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Casey Blake	139	485	84	136	25	6	18	79	63	116	3	4	.280	.363	.468

Knowing what we know now, seeing how decent of a year Blake had, would you sign him to the deal the Dodgers did? I said no when it happened, and in spite of his good year I wouldn't change my answer. Three years plus an option in 2012, that at a minimum will pay out $17.5 million dollars including '12's buyout...and in reality it's still probably safe to say that Minnesota would have had to beat that offer somehow land Blake in a Twins uniform.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Lincoln	1-1	19	0	0	0	0	0	23.0	29	21	21	7	19	9	8.22	2.09

His name came up just before the Winter Meetings kicked up. Not good, ladies and gents, not good.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garrett Atkins	126	354	37	80	12	1	9	48	41	58	0	0	.226	.308	.342

Definitely dodged a bullet here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adrian Beltre	111	449	54	119	27	0	8	44	19	74	13	2	.265	.304	.379

No doubt this was a bad, bad year for Adrian, but considering his prowess with the glove (14.7 UZR/150) I can still see the Twins showing some interest. He'll be 31 next season, so a breakout season is likely out of the cards but I do believe he could quite easily be a moderately productive offensive third baseman. But considering how much the Twins would have had to give up to get him last winter, it's a good thing they didn't work it out.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Miguel Tejada	158	635	83	199	46	1	14	86	19	48	5	2	.313	.340	.455

I'm not sure Tejada would have had this good of a season in the American League, but no doubt 46 doubles is a fantastic number and slightly off-sets his steady but definitely suppressed power numbers over the last few years. Still, the reason the Twins didn't continue to pursue him during the Winter Meetings was because of what the Astros, allegedly, were asking for in return. And I know that last winter, given the option between Tejada and Crede for third base, I'd have gone with Crede.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera Athletics Twins	101 59	414 242	41 42	116 70	23 13	0 3	4 5	41 36	25 11	39 32	11 2	4 0	.280 .289	.318 .313	.365 .430

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Orlando Cabrera

Athletics

Twins

101

414

242

116

.280

.289

.318

.313

.365

.430

O-Cab finished strong with the Twins. Having him all season would have been better than who we had on board, and we found out the kind of fire, energy and leadership he can bring to a team. He's someone guys like Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla can look up to as a leader. My hesitation in wanting him back in 2010 has to deal with A) how much money he wants and B) how much worse his range can get. But yes, this is a guy that, in hindsight, would have been a good addition. At the same time I know that had the Twins brought him in last winter, I'd be wondering why they didn't try for someone better. Just goes to show you how perspective can change your mind.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jack Wilson Pirates Mariners	75 31	266 107	26 11	71 24	18 5	1 0	4 1	31 8	15 6	31 17	2 1	1 0	.267 .224	.304 .263	.387 .299

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Jack Wilson

Pirates

Mariners

266

107

.267

.224

.304

.263

.387

.299

Very good defense at shortstop (15.3 UZR/150), but miserable offense. He's the kind of guy that, with a better offense around him or more depth off the bench, I'd be happy to have as a starter. I didn't want him last season, but knowing what I know now I think I probably could have dealt with what he brings to the table. Middle infield talent was clearly an issue this season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark DeRosa Indians Cardinals	71 68	278 237	47 31	75 54	13 10	0 1	13 10	50 28	29 18	63 58	1 2	1 1	.270 .228	.342 .291	.457 .405

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Mark DeRosa

Indians

Cardinals

278

237

.270

.228

.342

.291

.457

.405

Would DeRose continued to have a good season had he spent an entire season in the American League? Who knows, but considering Cleveland got him for a song I'm still shocked the Twins didn't move on him. Maybe they just didn't like him for one reason or another, but I was a fan. No doubt he'd have spent his whole season in Minnesota had be been healthy.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kevin Kouzmanoff	141	529	50	135	31	1	18	88	27	106	1	0	.255	.302	.420

Quite a bit of chatter about Kouz around the Winter Meetings, and I know some people were fans. I wasn't. His defense wasn't bad at third this year, but offensively he's a guy like Crede--pop but no real on-base skills.

Is there anyone that I've missed? Just a little nostalgic look at last year's off-season, making me wonder what does this one have in store? I'm thinking...well, I'm thinking something to do with one of the best-hitting catchers of all time.

I'll catch you all later.

Jered Weaver Wins 16th, Angels Win 95th

Rev Halofan — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:46:22 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Kendry Morales (19) steals home past Oakland Athletocs' catcher Kurt Suzuki during the second inning of a baseball game Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Final Score in Oakland: Angels 5, Athletics 2

Jered Weaver won his 16th Game, Brian Fuentes got his 47th save, Juan Rivera hit his 25th HR and Kendry Morales stole home (a career first) on a botched pickoff play as the Angels tuned up for the playoffs against the Swingin (and missin' as they struck out 8 times) A's in Oakland. 5 Angels scored a run apiece and four had single ribbys.

What looked like it might be a combined 2-hit shutout fell apart in the 9th inning when closer in waiting Kevin Jepsen gave up some hits and soon had to be rescued by Fuentes, who was good for a little inherited runners scoring drama on the mound himself before striking out Mark Ellis and inducing a popup from Nomar Garciaparra to finish the game.

Weaver, the Angels' likely Game 2 ALDS starter, looked dominant in striking out 5 A's. Rookie Sean "Telletuby" O'Sullivan added 2 innings of scoreless relief. Bullpen questions, though, abound, as a routine inning by Jepsen forced manager Mike Scioscia to use Fuentes as a laugher suddenly became a save situation. While Fuentes calmed it all down, it was not exactly a reassuring appearance by the Save-Maestro.

Poll

Panther of the Game

Jered Weaver

210 votes

Brian Fuentes

15 votes

225 votes | Poll has closed

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

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I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Game 132 Wrap - A's fail to make Joakim Soria as Royals escape 9th, 4-3

emperor nobody — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 05:59:22 -0000

It's funny until someone gets bronzed alive with the winning run on in the 9th.

Well, that was another classic te e. If baseball were foreplay, these A's would be running (streaking?) away with the West.

The Athletics put the first 2 aboard in the ninth but the rally died there, with Joakim Soria (in just his 15th inning of work tonight) inducing Nomar Garciaparra to bloop out to LF to end it after freezing Jack Cust on a (what else) 3-2 pitch for the 2nd out. The A's failed to take advantage of a Royals bullpen which had more trouble throwing strikes than Earl Anthony with his eyes poked out.

Wow, I've sucked for how many years in a row now?

This game kind of boiled down to the question of the day, which might've been "Why did Bob Geren remove Edgar Gonzalez after 5 innings and merely 69 pitches?" Before you could say WTF BOB, Jay Marshall and Jeff Gray had put Oakland in a 4-1 hole from which they would never emerge, with new A's nemesis Alberto Callaspo doing the biggest damage with a 2-run single. Late RBIs from Adam Kennedy (single) and Mark Ellis (fielder's choice) drew the A's closer but did not provide the needed cigar.

Not much else to say about it all, other than good game and get 'em tomorrow, which begins a fleeting 13 hours hence as we fire up another $2 Wednesday.

Thanks to everyone for making my AN debut a total blast, I really really really had an amazing time =)

Not-Traded Harden Loses Strike Zone; Cubs Lose 16th In Last 24 Games

Al — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:30:16 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

Not your night, Rich.

View full size photo »

Maybe the Cubs should have traded Rich Harden.

After breezing through the first two innings last night, striking out four (although throwing an alarmingly large 33 pitches), Harden completely lost touch with the strike zone in the third inning. He doubled his pitch count in that inning alone, throwing another 33 pitches, issuing three walks and allowing a key two-run single to Cub-killer Carlos Lee. C-Lee drove in four runs and now has 47 RBI in 53 career games played at Wrigley Field.

The Astros held on to beat the Cubs 5-3, and the faint Cub playoff hopes dimmed even further. I won't give up until mathematical elimination -- and that's still quite a way off -- but obviously, things don't look very good. Since August 4, when the Cubs beat the Reds in Cincinnati to go a season-high 57-49, they are 8-16 and the Cardinals are 18-5. That's both a serious decline by the Cubs and an impressive run by St. Louis; only the Yankees at 18-6 are close to the Cardinals' record in that time frame.

This is a collapse not like the 1969 team, but more comparable to 1973, when the Cubs were 48-33 on July 1, eight games in first place, and then went on an 8-25 (yes, that's right, eight and twenty-five) skid that put them 56-58, five games out on August 8. I think this team is better than the '73 team, the last of the Williams/Santo/Jenkins/Kessinger/Beckert group that had run out of gas by then; I hope this year's team has one last run left in it.

Many of you have made comparisons between the 2009 Cubs and the thoroughly unlikable 2004 bunch that blew a sure wild-card berth in the last week of the season. I think the more apt comparison for 2009 is the 2005 team, the one that seemed poorly constructed from the beginning (Jim Hendry getting fooled by Jeromy Burnitz' big year in Colorado, signing him, expecting the same sort of production), and suffering injuries to key players (Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Prior) without having suitable backups. Remember how Dusty Baker, after giving Neifi Perez over 600 plate appearances and 136 starts, said, "Neifi saved us!" To which the response was, "From what?" On August 2, 2005 the Cubs stood at 54-52, four games out of the wild card lead and, as today, behind four other teams. They proceeded to lose eight games in a row, and by the time the carnage was over on August 29, had gone 8-17 and were out of it.

This team, again, I believe to be better than that one, but time is growing short, and they're not going to win many games leaving runners on third base with less than two out, as they did last night when Kosuke Fukudome couldn't bring Derrek Lee home after he had reached second on a dropped fly ball and gone to third on one of Aramis Ramirez's three line drives to Michael Bourn. The only positive from last night was, again, the work of the bullpen, who kept the team in the game. Aaron Heilman again threw two solid innings, and along with Kevin Gregg and John Grabow combined for four shutout, three-hit, six-strikeout innings.

All they can do is go out and win tonight, win the rest of the games on this homestand and try to sneak back into things. There was a fall-like chill in the late-August air last night; hopefully, that will not be an omen. And if the Cubs do fall out of it as their 2005 counterparts did, let us hope ownership and top management doesn't fool itself into thinking they will fix things as they did over the winter of 2005-06. The 2006 season, as you know, was a disaster. If 2009 isn't going to end up happily, at least let's have some hope for 2010.