SB Nation - James Loney

Loney's Improvement a Key for 2010

Eric Stephen — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 05:18:39 -0000

Including the playoffs, James Loney hit 13 of his 15 home runs on the road in 2009

If this offseason has taught us anything so far, it's that the Dodger roster as it stands now, four days before Christmas, won't be much different than the one that opens the regular season on April 5 in Pittsburgh. The core of the team will carry this team as far as it's going to go. Most of that nucleus is young and on the upswing, which is good for a team that needs their improvement to fuel another postseason run.

These young players also fit a key requirement to be a Dodger these days, in that they are cheap, at least relatively so. Using Wins Above Replacement (on Fangraphs), the Dodgers' two best players last season were Matt Kemp (5.0 WAR) and Clayton Kershaw (4.2 WAR, tied with Casey Blake). Those two made a combined $871,000 in 2009, meaning they were two of the most valuable players in baseball. Many of these young players are due for raises in 2010, as the Dodgers lead baseball with nine arbitration-eligible players.

One of the most intriguing stories of 2010 will be the performance of first baseman James Loney. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time, and he will probably make somewhere between $3 million to $3.5 million next season. Loney has just over three years of service time, and here are some comparable first basemen heading into their fourth year in recent seasons:

			Stats Through 3rd Year
First Baseman	Year	Service Time	OPS+	Runs	RBI	4th Year Salary
Adam LaRoche	2007	3 years	114	187	213	$3.2 million
Kevin Youkilis	2008	3 yrs, 93 days	109	234	199	$3 million
Mike Jacobs	2009	3 yrs, 47 days	110	197	247	$3.25 million
James Loney	2010	3 yrs, 12 days	112	200	265	???
Service time courtesy of the great Cot's Baseball Contracts

Loney is not quite at the crossroads of his Dodger career, but he is getting closer. He plays first base, the most offensive-minded position in baseball, while last season Loney had a slugging percentage of .399. It's one thing to accept relatively low production from your first baseman when he is making $465,000, as Loney did in 2009, because the team can theoretically use the savings to spend money on other positions. Now that Loney will likely make $3 million or more, it's time to look at first base with a more critical eye.

I'm not saying it's time to cut bait on Loney. He will turn 26 in April, about to enter a time which is often considered the prime of a player's career. He also has the extreme home/road splits (.709 career OPS at Dodger Stadium, .900 OPS on the road), and if anyone can figure out how to harness Road Loney at home the Dodgers will benefit greatly. We can also look to the recent past to find another Dodger first baseman who struggled as he entered his arbitration seasons.

Eric Karros -- who is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this season, by the way -- was once in the very same shoes worn by Loney today. Karros won rookie of the year in 1992, hitting 20 home runs with 88 runs batted in, then struggled over the next two seasons. Loney took over Dodger first base duties in June 2007, and hit .331 with 15 dingers, only to descend into mediocrity over his next two seasons.

	Eric Karros		James Loney
	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)
1st year	1992	106 (9th of 12)	2007	134 (4th of 16)
2nd year	1993	88 (13th of 15)	2008	103 (13th of 16)
3rd year	1994	95 (10th of 14)	2009	104 (13th of 16)

Heading into their first arbitration-eligible seasons, here's how Karros and Loney compare:

Pre Arbitration Years
Player	Years	Ages	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Eric Karros	1991-1994	23-26	1710	188	79	57	215	.254/.298/.417	95
James Loney	2006-2009	22-25	1788	200	84	45	265	.295/.354/.451	112

Loney doesn't look so bad now, does he? That .298 on-base percentage for Karros really stands out. I don't remember caring too much about OBP back then, but wow. However, here is what Karros did during his three seasons of arbitration:

Eric Karros Arbitration Years
Year	Age	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
1995	27	620	83	29	32	105	.298/.369/.535	145
1996	28	670	84	29	34	111	.260/.316/.479	113
1997	29	700	86	28	31	104	.266/.329/.459	110
Totals		1990	253	86	97	320	.274/.337/.489	122

Throw in the fact that Loney is a year younger than Karros was, and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Loney comes into his own over the next three seasons. He'll pretty much have to, because the Dodgers need it.

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

Eric Stephen — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:14:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Randy Wolf tries to emulate the feelings of Dodger fans today

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I don't know what to say anymore.

The Dodgers declined to offer arbitration to all seven of their Type A and Type B free agents today, most notably Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. This means the Dodgers will receive no compensation if any of the free agents sign elsewhere.

I already covered the reasons for and/or against offering arbitration, and I expected to be disappointed today. But not to this extent. On some level, I can understand the argument for not offering arbitration to Hudson, even if I don't fully agree with it. However, not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is just wrong. Wolf is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and is sure to get a multi-year offer somewhere, so he would have likely declined arbitration.

In Wolf and Hudson, the Dodgers had two players that should be welcomed back if they chose to accept arbitration, and they only would be signed to one-year deals. Sure, they might be a tad pricey, but both provide value at or exceeding their worth, and again, it would just be for one year, and only if they accepted arbitration. Could it be that the Dodgers are so strapped for cash that they can't accept even the slightest risk of paying two talented players for one season?

Or is it worse than that? Do the Dodgers not want the burden of having four extra draft picks in 2010, the burden of four extra signing bonuses, possibly totaling somewhere in the $4 million range?

What other excuse could there be besides money? Because if this were strictly a baseball decision, both Wolf and Hudson would have been offered arbitration.

These are short-sighted moves by the Dodgers. Look at this team. The 2009 Dodgers only had the best record in the National League, and they were fueled by a young group of players once drafted by the Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier (OK, he was drafted by the A's), Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, Russell Martin. Unfortunately, you can't continue the process of integrating fresh, new talent into the mix if you don't have the picks to draft them, or if you don't utilize the ones you have. The Dodgers may have potentially saved some money with today's decisions, but they missed a golden opportunity to invest in the future.

It is now apparent to me that general manager Ned Colletti's hands are tied by purse strings. He will have his work cut out for him this offseason, which seems like it could be a long one for Dodger fans.

Astros (Sometimes Tangentially)-Related Link Fest

davoag — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:59:08 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

This is exactly what the Astros need in 2010...a brawler!

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Lots and lots of links over the weekend. Maybe it's because Thanksgiving marks the unofficial beginning of the baseball offseason. Maybe it's because writers finally decompressed from the World Series ending. Whatever the reason, here's a jumbo-sized post full of link-y goodness:

Here's an interesting article about the impact long-term contracts to early-year players has on the free agent pool. The Astros haven't done this in a while, but if Jason Castro develops in his first two seasons, it'll be interesting to see if they sign him to a four- or five-year deal.
The first and second in a series on non-tender candidates. We've discussed Garrett Atkins a little bit on here but Kelly Shoppach hasn't gotten much publicity. Given his line over the past three seasons and the fact that he's moving to the National League, Shoppach could have some value for a team like the Astros. At the very least, he could replace a guy like Quintero, who's never hit nearly as well. Thoughts?
Richard Justice steals one of our ideas, asking for input on what to do with the Astros budget. Later, Brian McTaggart does the same exact thing here. Is this a sign of lazy writing, a slow winter or stealing the great ideas of the gifted writers here at TCB. I'll let you decide...
McTaggart also trotted out a mailbag for astros.com, answering reader questions about the state of the team. Unfortunately, there wasn't any new information to be gleaned. Yes, the Astros are on a budget. No, they are not going after big-name pitchers. Yes, they will explore the trade market, but no, they probably won't get any deals done. Most vexing is McTaggart saying that the Astros are content with Geoff Blum manning third in a platoon. Mind you, this platoon will also mean Blum gets the majority of the plate appearances, since there are more right-handed pitchers than leftys. Ed Wade is okay with this?
McTaggart is good at his job, but it also goes to show you what an advantage media types at known media outlets have, in that he can talk to Wade pretty much every day. I talk to him too, but he may or may not be a fictional version of himself in those conversations.
Joe Posnanski takes on the same question I hinted at the other day: Is Albert Pujols a Hall of Famer already? How many other current players 29 or under are also HOF-bound? Any Astros potentially on that list?
For those of you (i.e. me) who suggested the Astros look at Derek Lowe, here's a cautionary article about his underlying stats. Now, I'd argue that pitching in MMP would give Lowe the added benefit of giving up towering shots to center field that are swallowed up by Michael Bourn, but I don't feel nearly as good as I did before I read that.
Maybe the Astros will have some money to spend in 2011. Maybe that's why Drayton is saving up this winter. (Slightly disturbing to see Berkman's name here right after that candid interview he did recently...I don't know what I'd do without Puma on the team.)
Don't believe everything you read during the Hot Stove Months. The only difference between bloggers and mainstream journalists is that the mainstreamers don't just make up stuff, right? Is that how we got reports about the Rangers shopping for a third baseman? Oh, right, it's because no one tries to check facts any more, preferring to break news instead. Glad we cleared that up.
There are a LOT of Dogers headed for big arbitration raises soon. If Berkman does decide to leave in 2011, could the Astros make a play for hometown guy James Loney? Does that make sense? Would it be cheaper in the long-run?
Finally, a little snippet from John Sickels on former Houston high schooler Randall Grichuk (down at the bottom). He was rumored to be headed to the Astros before the draft, but was nabbed by the Angels instead. Always nice to see local kids making their way to the majors.

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:55:11 -0000

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story, THT compares WAR to Win Shares. THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares

Player	Win Shares
Matt Kemp	26
Andre Ethier	21
Orlando Hudson	20
Casey Blake	19
James Loney	18
Manny Ramirez	18
Rafael Furcal	17
Russell Martin	16
Jon Broxton	16
Randy Wolf	14
Juan Pierre	12
Clayton Kershaw	12
Chad Billingsley	9
Ramon Troncoso	8
Ronaldo Belisario	7
Hiroki Kuroda	5
Jeff Weaver	5
G Mota	4
Hong-Chih Kuo	3
Mark Loretta	3
James McDonald	3
Brad Ausmus	3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Order	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Shares
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	2nd	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	3rd	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	4th	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	T-5th	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	T-8th	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1979	22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman

Player	TWS	Pos
Garvey, Steve	223	1st
Karros, Eric	175	1st
Parker, Wes	146	1st
Murray, Eddie	68	1st
Loney, James	51	1st
Brock, Greg	47	1st
Hodges, Gil	37	1st
Garciaparra, Nomar	29	1st
Farily, Ron	142	1st/OF
Mike, Marshall	108	1st/OF
Buckner, Billy	80	1st/OF
Larker, Norm	35	1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin	34	1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Pos	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1979	22
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1989	21
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1977	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1963	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1962	21
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1999	20
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1996	20
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1965	20
Garciaparra, Nomar	1st	29	2006	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2002	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1997	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1971	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1969	18
Loney, James	1st	51	2009	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1966	17
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1964	17
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1959	17
Loney, James	1st	51	2007	16
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1991	16
Loney, James	1st	51	2008	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1985	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1983	15
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1982	15
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1967	15
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1961	15
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2000	14
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1972	14
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1960	14
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1992	13
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1981	13
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1968	12
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1958	12
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1973	11
Buckner, Billy	1st	80	1973	11
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1993	10
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1987	9
Brock, Gregg	1st	47	1986	9
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2001	8
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1984	8
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1959	8
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1994	7
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1958	7
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1988	6
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1961	6
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1961	5
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1959	5
Loney, James	1st	51	2006	3
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1964	3
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1960	3
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1958	2

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

Frustrations and Celebrations

Phil Gurnee — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:48:43 -0000

Time for a quick fluff piece while we wait for the winter meetings. The Dodgers have had substantial success over the last two seasons but that success was mitigated by failure to advance past the NLCS. Normally we at TBLA are a positive group but this November I'm feeling disgruntled about our future. So for every irritation I have with the team I'll try to counter with a positive.

Irriations	Celebrations
James Loney going backward instead of forward. After his 2007 we had every reason to believe that Loney was going to be an impact player, instead over the last two years his offensive production has him ranked with the bottom feeders as this position.	He is a kick ass post season player, fun guy to root for, still has one more year to turn it around before he's gets to expensive for his production.
Our All-Star 2nd baseman not getting the time of day from the great communicator to explain why he sat most of Sept and the complete post-season.	Trading for Ronny Belliard who inexplicably has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last few years, and then have him kick Kensai ass with a spectacular Sept performance.
Rafy Furcal playing just about every game and making Juan Pierre look like a great lead off hitter.	At least he was healthy and played somewhat good defense.
Ivan DeJesus breaking his leg.	The Beard putting up his best complete season of his career at age 35
Russel Martin turning into the bad Jason Kendall just 1 1/2 years after I picked him as a possible MVP in 2008. Now he's going to be expensive, his offense blows, and as ~~Tripon~~ Seanny Rotten noted in a fanshot, by some metrics his defense also blows. This is a particular irritation for me because one of the Dodgers huge advantages had been the big boost from the catching position. Without that advantage, it will be harder as the competition gets better and cheaper at the position while we get worse and expensive.	Other then fact he's young and might turn it around I got nothing good to say about Martin other then his middle name.
Manny's deffered contract is going to be a pain in the ass for several years unless the owner increases payroll to make up for it.	At least we should still have an above average LF for one more year, and Manny is always fun to watch.
Juan Pierre is still on the team, not because he can't be a decent players but because his salary is such an anchor on a team with what appears to be a very limited ability to spend money. My particular irritation is not with Pierre but with those who point to his time when he filled in for Manny and talk about how great he was. He was great, but it was for one month and they seem to incredibly forget he played two months and his suckitude in the 2nd month seems to have been completely forgotten.	Beast Mode in May was one of the highlights of 2009.
Deferred contracts in general - I hate them.
After several years of TBLA telling everyone how good Billingsley is, he decides to become a five inning pitcher and sometimes not even that. You won't see any comparisons this year to Chad and the best of the historical Dodger pitchers 25 years and younger.	All-Star Chad was quite a pitcher for the first few months of the year.
That Charlie Haeger didn't get more of a chance.	Padilla took Lima time and doubled down.
That Scott Elbert didn't get one start this year.
That McDonald totally blew during his brief stint in the rotation possibly poisoning management from giving other kids a shot.	Coming back into the bullpen and showing he still has big league stuff.
That Broxton didn't erase the ghost of Matt Stairs.	What a regular season.Other then the stretch with the bad toe that was one of the best non enhanced steroid relief seasons in Dodger history.
Matt Kemp's 2nd half performance	Matt Kemps complete season performance. He is already one of the best CF in the game. Please keep improving, you are a big reason to watch the Dodgers right now.
Kuo's fragile arm	Kuo's incredible arm
That Carlos Santana is not a Dodger
That Josh Bell is not a Dodger
That Tony Abreu is not a Dodger
That other then Matt Kemp, and the younger version of the current Dodger catcher, Logan White has not provided the Dodgers with an impact bat during he reign.	The plethora of pitchers that Logan White has provided for the Dodgers during his reign.
Jamie and Frank McCourt	Josh Rawitch
The Divorce
Ned Colletti	Ned Colleti
Drunken bad behavior Dodger Fans	Drunken fun as hell Dodger fans
Rick Monday	Vin Scully
Bil Plaschke	Jon Weisman & Eric Stephen
Lambo's 2009 mediocre season	Chris Withrow's excellent season
The fact that because Frank couldn't bite the bullet we will be paying Andruw Jones for years
Mark Loretta taking the Mark Sweeney route to retirement	one at bat in the post season goes a long way toward forgiveness.
Manny's 50 game suspension still irks the hell out of me	The future with Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton, Andre, and Kemp.

Arizona Fall League: Jose Tabata Goes 6-for-7, Posey Drives in 4

raygu — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

by Chris Carlson - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey gets his first major league hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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The Arizona Fall League regular season came to a close on Thursday. Highlighting the day was the Pirates outfield prospect Jose Tabata going 6 for 7 with 4 runs scored and 3 RBI. Quite a day for a prospect I just traded for in the UBA league. I am just curious if he will make it to Pittsburgh in 2010.

Here is what ESPN's Keith Law had to say when I asked this question in a recent chat:

rayg (burlington, nj)
Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?

Klaw (2:03 PM)

No. I think that's a year early.

I am not so sure since the Pirates could move Jones to 1B should he duplicate his 2009 season. But, Tabata is not your typical corner outfielder either, as he has not show much power in his minor league career. He is only 22 so the power could develop, but we've heard that about James Loney in the past, haven't we?

Let's take a look at the top performances on the last day of the AFL after the jump:

Jose Tabata-6-7, 4 RS, 2 2B, 3 RBI (.392)

Chase D'arnaud-2-4, 4 RS, 2 SB (13), 3 BB, 2 K (.292)

Brandon Allen-2-5, 2 RS, RBI, SB, 2 BB, 2 K (.177)

Thomas Neal 2-5, 2 RS, 2 SB (12), RBI, (.284)

Buster Posey-2-4, 4 RBI (.225)

Wilin Rosario-2-5, 5 RBI (.304)

Dustin Ackley 2-5, RS (.315)

Jordan Danks-2-4, 3 RS, HR, 3 RBI (.343)

Brent Morel-3-4, 2 RS, 3 RBI (.435)

Andrew Lambo-2-5, 2B, 2 RBI (.330)

Danny Espinosa-0-2 (.345)

Josh Bell-1-3, RS, 2B, RBI (.319)

Chris Marrero-2-4, 2B, RBI (.349)

Marcus Lemon-2-5, RS, HR, RBI (.343)

Reese Havens-3-4, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.368)

Ike Davis-2-4, RS (.341)

Taylor Teagarden-1-4, RS, HR, 3 RBI (.212)

Mike Moustakas-1-4 (.267)

Daryl Jones-1-3, RS, 2B (.205)

Lance Zawadzki-3-5, 3 RS, 2B, HR, 3 RBI (.324)

Matt McBride-2-4, RS, RBI, SB, BB (.378)

Yonder Alonso-1-5, RS, 2B, 2 RBI (.267)

Brandon Hicks-3-5, 2B, RBI (.310)

Bryan Peterson-0-3 (.379)

Starlin Castro-0-3 (.376)

Josh Vitter-1-4 (.353)

Mike Leake-4 Inn, 2 H, 4 K (1.37)

Craig Kimbrel-1 Inn, 2 BB, 3 K (10.45)

Andrew Miller-4 Inn, 3 H. 1 ER, 3 K (5.28)

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Eric Stephen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:09:38 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez join fellow outfielder Matt Kemp as the only Dodgers projected by CHONE to have an OPS of .800 or above in 2010.

Browse more photos »

Last month we looked at the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. Now, the second set of projections are in, from Sean Smith of the wonderful blog Anaheim Angels All The Way. His full list of CHONE projections can be found here.

I added these projections to the previous Bill James projections, and also took a look back to 2009 to see how accurate last year's set of predictions were. The 2009 and 2010 CHONE projections are highlighted below.

I also threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 CHONE	.286	.384	.434	.818
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 Bill James	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 CHONE	.273	.364	.407	.771
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 CHONE	.294	.355	.446	.801
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 Bill James	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 CHONE	.292	.354	.444	.798
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 CHONE	.276	.353	.407	.760
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 Bill James	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 CHONE	.270	.342	.395	.737
2010 status	Type A free agent

Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 CHONE	.272	.331	.419	.750
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 Bill James	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 CHONE	.256	.313	.404	.717
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats

Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 CHONE	.284	.358	.412	.770
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 Bill James	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 CHONE	.273	.342	.388	.730
2010 status	under contract

Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 CHONE	.259	.336	.439	.775
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 Bill James	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 CHONE	.256	.331	.430	.761
2010 status	under contract

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 CHONE	.291	.408	.556	.964
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 Bill James	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 CHONE	.272	.368	.501	.869
2010 status	under contract

Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 CHONE	.299	.353	.476	.829
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 Bill James	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 CHONE	.297	.351	.492	.843
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 CHONE	.292	.366	.468	.834
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 Bill James	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 CHONE	.281	.356	.488	.844
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 CHONE	.283	.328	.357	.685
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 Bill James	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 CHONE	.287	.335	.369	.704
2010 status	under contract

You can get the full list of Dodgers' CHONE projections here.

Looking at the CHONE projections, I thought the mythical battle for fourth outfielder was interesting:

2010 CHONE Projections
4th Outfielder	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mitch Jones	.228	.306	.435	.741
Hector Luna	.261	.324	.408	.732
Xavier Paul	.259	.323	.390	.713
Jamie Hoffmann	.255	.328	.379	.707
Juan Pierre	.287	.335	.369	.704

MLB Trade Rumors: Marlins Listening to Offers for Ricky Nolasco??

raygu — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:00:20 -0000

by Wilfredo Lee - AP

2 months ago: Florida Marlins' Ricky Nolasco delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Friday, Sept. 25, 2009, in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

View full size photo »

Yesterday ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the several teams have talked to the Marlins about the availability of Ricky Nolasco and Jorge Cantu. Here is is tweet:

Spoken with teams about Florida's arb.-eligible trade bait, and there clearly is major interest in Jorge Cantu and Ricky Nolasco. about 8 hours ago from web

It appears that the Marlins are listening to offers for all of their arbitration eligible players including Dan Uggla, who is almost certain to be wearing a different uniform by Christmas. Should the Marlins deal Cantu, they will be left with Emilio Bonafacio at either 3B or 2B (should Chris Coghlan stay in LF), and either 1B prospects Logan Morrison or Gaby Sanchez to play 1B. The Marlins have a 3B prospect Matt Dominguez but he is not yet ready with the bat, but is certainly major league ready with his glove.

Trading Nolasco, who had a terrible first two months of 2009 and returned to form after being sent down to the minors, should net the Marlins some top major league ready prospects. Nolasco pitched better than his 2009 stats indicate, so there should be many teams looking to deal for him.

Who are those teams? I would guess that the Mets, Cubs (he was drafted by the Cubs), Brewers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies would have some interest from the National League. I wouldn't be surprised to see the two of them packaged to the same team for several prospects.

Could the Brewers send a package headlined by Mat Gamel for Nolasco and Cantu? How about the Dodgers with a package around Chris Withrow and James Loney? The Diamondbacks could offer a change of scenery for struggling outfielder Chris Young.

Poll

Where is Ricky Nolasco more likely to pitch in 2010?

Brewers-in a deal involving Mat Gamel

38 votes

Dodgers-in a deal around Chris Withrow

31 votes

Diamondbacks-for Chris Young?

18 votes

Marlins-they wait till June 2010 to deal him

64 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Russell Martin hits an RBI single during the fourth inning of Game 4 of the National League Championship baseball series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Oct. 19, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

In his Sunday morning blog, ESPN's Buster Olney suggests the Dodgers will trade one of their arbitration eligible players this offseason:

Los Angeles is expected to move at least one of its many arbitration-eligible players via trade. You might match Halladay with what the Dodgers have to offer -- Canada native Russell Martin plus others. But remember that Martin's OPS has dropped 162 points during the past two seasons. He also is climbing swiftly up the arbitration ladder; his salary might climb from $3.9 million last season to $6 million next season. In the end, the Dodgers might not get the ace they need.

So, I took a look at the list of arbitration eligible players the Dodgers have this offseason. Here is the list:

Hong-Chih Kuo

There are four players that LA will certainly not trade right now: Kemp, Ethier, Sherrill and Kuo. Kemp and Ethier are obvious, and Sherrill and Kuo are two of the best left-handed relievers in the game, so they aren't going anywhere.

Of the remaining four players, I don't see the Dodgers dealing Broxton or Billingsley. John Perrotto wrote in his Sunday On The Beat article that Billz would be available in a trade this offseason. I just don't see it. I see him just having an off year in 2009 due to his jump in innings pitched in 2008. Broxton was one the best closers in baseball during the regular season, but for the second season in a row, Broxton blew up in the NLCS.

That leaves Russell Martin and James Loney. I have been down on Martin for two years now, so I would be happy if he was dealt as part of a package for an ace starting pitcher. I do like Loney, but the Dodgers need a power hitter at first base, and I could see them packaging him for ace starter as well.

Should LA trade Russell Martin, they could go out and sign Bengie Molina who still can hit for an old catcher. He batted cleanup for the Giants most of the 2009 season. If they decide to package Loney, they could move Casey Blake to first base, and go out and sign Adrian Beltre. Beltre is probably the best fielding third baseman in the game, and can still hit for power and steal a few bags.

Poll

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Russell Martin

328 votes

James Loney

161 votes

Chad Billingsley

110 votes

Jonathan Broxton

28 votes

627 votes | Poll has closed

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Arizona Fall League: Jose Tabata Goes 6-for-7, Posey Drives in 4

rayg (burlington, nj) Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?

Klaw (2:03 PM)

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Infield

Outfield

MLB Trade Rumors: Marlins Listening to Offers for Ricky Nolasco??

Where is Ricky Nolasco more likely to pitch in 2010?

Brewers-in a deal involving Mat Gamel

Dodgers-in a deal around Chris Withrow

Diamondbacks-for Chris Young?

Marlins-they wait till June 2010 to deal him

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Russell Martin

James Loney

Chad Billingsley

Jonathan Broxton

rayg (burlington, nj)
Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?