SB Nation - Derek Lowe

Braves Sign Joe Thurston; Vazquez Won't Cross the Rocky Mountains

gondeee — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:18:30 -0000

Utility man Joe Thurston, formerly of the Cardinals, has signed a minor league deal with the Braves.

A few tidbits of information today. First off, from Mark Bowman we learn that the Braves have signed light-hitting utility man Joe Thurston, who last year was with the Cardinals, to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Thurston is mainly a second baseman, but he's made himself more valuable in recent years be learning to play the outfield and most recently learning to play third base (though, not that well). He's played a tad bit of shortstop in the minor leagues, but mainly he'll be in camp competing for the second utility infield position.

In the same blog post, and later in a front page post, Bowman quotes a source who confirms that it is highly unlikely that Javier Vazquez would waive his no-trade clause to go to a West coast team. I tackled that rumor and debunked it last night, albeit with out a "source," I instead used logic. It's good to know that Javy is still interested in remaining in Atlanta beyond next season. I'd like to see that happen, but of course, all of this is predicated on the Braves moving Derek Lowe.

Speaking of Lowe, I expect that we'll begin to hear another team mentioned more frequently in trade rumors with Lowe -- the New York Yankees. They seem to be tackling one off-season priority at a time, and after acquiring Curtis Granderson and now signing Nick Johnson, many people expect them to focus on starting pitching. The Braves are rumored to have long been interested in Nick Swisher. If they can swing Lowe for Swisher, then that may free up the Yankees to go back and try to re-sign Johnny Damon, another move that is seemingly in the Yankees interest.

Another team that may be looking for more starting pitching is the Cubs, who just freed up a bunch of money by trading Milton Bradley. I'm not sure how they would match up in a trade with the Braves, though, as they don't seem to have any surplus at a position the Braves need to fill.

I also continue to hear that free agent Xavier Nady and the Braves are close to a deal, and that only lingering medical questions about Nady are holding up the deal. Getting Swisher and Nady would seem to wrap up the principal needs of the Braves off-season, and set us up with a good and deep team heading into spring training. One name that I haven't heard mentioned with the Braves, but one I'd like to hear mentioned is Troy Glaus. He's a year removed from a fantastic season, and while he would primarily play first base, he would be an excellent third base insurance policy against Chipper Jones getting injured.

The Braves front office also officially announced, via a press release, that the team has signed six minor league free agents this off-season. The list includes left-handed pitcher Mariano Gomez, catchers Orlando Mercado and J.C. Boscan, infielder Joe Thurston and outfielders Brent Clevlen and Mitch Jones. They join right-handed pitcher Scott Proctor, who signed in November.

Braves/Angels Rumor About Javier Vazquez

gondeee — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 03:37:00 -0000

I saw this rumor earlier this evening and thought very little of it, but then ESPN.com decided to repeat it and source it:

According to a reliable source, the Angels are talking to the Braves about Javier Vazquez. The Braves however want to deal Derek Lowe, obviously. The names of the players in a potential deal are not known, but it is no secret the Braves are looking for a power hitting left fielder and are said to be interested in Juan Rivera.

The ESPN rumor central piece adds this:

The Angels have actually been focused on Javier Vazquez, according to executives of two clubs that have spoken with them.

Maybe ESPN is reporting anything and everything, but they seem to have multiple sources. Kudos to AngelsWin.com, a blog, for getting this story first.

Compliments aside, both sites mention the big hang-up with Vazquez being his no-trade clause to West coast teams. I don't think a player would negotiate that level of specificity into a contract and then ignore it when it comes trade time. Vazquez has been traded enough to be picky, and he won't waive his no-trade just to because Bill Stoneman and Vazquez "keep in touch," as the AngelsWin post mentions. That's a lot of wishful thinking on their part.

Furthermore, Vazquez and his agent should know that going into a contract year there is more value in remaining in the National League where Javy had a career year last year. They should also have some idea that the Braves want to re-sign Vazquez. Atlanta's a good and stable situation for Javy, and I don't see him waiving his no-trade to leave, that's the only leverage he has.

This rumor is likely a result of the Angels asking for Vazquez instead of Lowe, but that doesn't mean the Braves are going to bite. Frank Wren's luck is not on the side of negotiating a trade and not having the player veto it. The Angels may very well have interest in Javy, but I don't think that will end up being his ultimate destination.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

New York Yankee notes: Matsui, and a little hot stove stuff

Ed Valentine — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:47:55 -0000

Morning, New York Yankees fans! Here are a few stories to help keep you warm and cozy by your computer on a very cold day here in the Northeast.

The Los Angeles Angels introduced Hideki Matsui yesterday, and received the full Matsui treatment with an overwhelming throng of Japanese media on hand.
The Yankees are "looking at the entire market" for starting pitching depth, corner outfielder and designated hitters, according to GM Brian Cashman. Over at Confessions of a She Fan, Jane Heller is dreaming much bigger about ways to fill her New York Yankee Christmas stocking. Her ideas will never come to fruition, but you have to like her style.
Over at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes they are wondering what John Sterling will come up with for a Curtis Granderson home run call. My money is on "A Dandy from Grandy."
Speaking of Granderson, he was knows for his work in the community while a member of the Detroit Tigers. Wednesday he took his first step toward bringing some of that work to New York City.
Over at Talking Chop, SBN's Atlanta Braves blog, they are pushing the idea of a Derek Lowe for Nick Swisher trade. All I can say to that is, no thanks. The Yanks have already jettisoned one outfielder, maybe two if Johnny Damon doesn't come back. Besides, I don't want Lowe and his gargantuan contract, anyway.

Lowe May Be Talking His Way Out Of Atlanta

gondeee — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:02:35 -0000

Yes, this is another post about the Atlanta Braves' quest to trade Derek Lowe, but this one comes with actual new information. New information directly from the mouth of Lowe himself. I was going to name this post, "Lowe On The Lowe Trade: 'It's Not If, But When'." But then I kept reading the article that Mark Bowman just posted on MLB.com. The almost-title quote from Lowe regarding a potential trade:

"I'm just waiting for it to happen," Lowe said. "I don't think it's a matter of if anymore. It's just a matter of when."

You're not the only one waiting for it to happen, Derek. Then he goes on to stick his proverbial foot in his mouth (my emphasis):

"I take it kind of personal," Lowe said. "Noboby made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn't a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads. It was a negotiation and that's what they viewed as fair. I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen."

Those are some serious words, fueled in part by this:

Since the season concluded, Lowe said that he has been bothered by the fact that he hasn't had any conversations with any members of the Braves organization.

But the Braves have made contact with Lowe's agent, Scott Boras, to explain the reason they are looking to trade either Lowe or Vazquez.

"By not speaking, that speaks as much as anything," Lowe said. "It's kind of unsettling because you're just sitting here."

That reminds me of the complaints that John Smoltz had last off-season, and quite frankly it's something that surprises me. I would have thought for sure that a coach would call and check in on each player in the off-season to make sure their following a routine and staying in shape.

Lowe has some salient points, and the Braves decision to possibly trade Lowe may have some longer and more serious implications. It has long been policy of the Braves front office not to give no-trade clauses, but the Braves have never (potentially) ushered a high-profile free agent like Lowe out of town so fast. What would trading Derek Lowe, who just signed a 4-year deal with Atlanta, say about the team's commitment to players if he gets traded after just one season (and as Lowe says, really just two bad months that put a black mark on the season). How much harder would it be to try and lure top free agents to Atlanta?

The silver lining here is that if the Braves were waffling on moving Lowe, these few words may have helped motivate them to finally pull the trigger.

Could Braves' Lowe be heading to the Yankees... or the Jets... or the (fill in team name here)

gondeee — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:02:23 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Could the Braves sound the horn for the Yankees' Nick Swisher?

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There has been quite a bit of silence on the Derek Lowe front for the last 24 hours. The latest incarnation of a destination for the Atlanta Braves starting pitcher has been conjured up by AJC beat writer David O'Brien:

Lowe-for-Swisher would be a strong outcome for the Braves in the whole Lowe situation. Big Money (Yanks) could make things all better.

He goes on to make an analogy about the Yankees being a rich uncle who is benevolently buying back the car which was too expensive that we (the Braves) got last year, blah, blah. Things have been so quiet the past 24 that I'm forced to re-print these twitter ramblings. Lowe might as well be headed anywhere at this point.

Lowe-for-Swish would be a decent deal, though I've consistently been on the fence about Nick Swisher. He seems like another in a long line of almost-stars who do a few things well, but have some holes in their game. But he knows how to hit a homerun and he knows how to take a walk, so that's a start. He's be a better option than Juan Rivera, who everyone and their brother keep trying to put us on.

I'm ready for something to happen. Damn the Braves patience.

[UPDATE: 4PM]

To add another thought here; with the Lee/Halladay deal now done, and the Mariners having already added Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee this off-season, and with John Lackey off to Boston, surely the Angels feel they need to respond. I think Derek Lowe would be a good beginning to that response, with the notion that he will likely pitch better back in SoCal.

Settling for Lowe

gondeee — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:42:23 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

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It looks like the long-awaited trade of Atlanta Braves starter Derek Lowe is nearly upon us. The prerequisites for a Lowe trade are about to be finalized and that could be the trigger which leads other teams to make a move to acquire Lowe.

The Boston Red Sox are on the verge of signing John Lackey for way too much money. The Phillies and Mariners and Blue Jays are playing the Napa Cap Shuffle with Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and the Phils want to have their cake and eat it too, so they will land Halliday regardless of the cost.

That leaves several teams, particularly the Angels, without a "top-flight" starter, and if they believe that Lowe fits that mold, then maybe they'll bite on a trade. The Mets, and specifically their fans, are also left wanting more, but not only do we not want to trade with a division rival, we don't match up well with the Mets on the trade front.

Those two teams would be the front runners for his services, but there may be another mystery team or two who could get into the bidding, especially if the Braves can eat some of Lowe's salary as they apparently indicated that they can (though that is not their preference). Lowe is essentially the next most attractive starting pitcher on the free agent or trade market this winter, and his services could come relatively cheap in terms of players a team would have to give up to get him.

For the Braves, getting rid of that contract would be a huge help, as the team must view that as somewhat of an overreaction last year to what had transpired the year before with the starting rotation. The balance on the Braves now would be to spend more money on the lineup rather than the rotation, especially with inexpensive rotation options in Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson entrenched for several years.

We're still in the sit and wait mode on a possible Lowe trade, but we're certainly waiting more eagerly.

[UPDATE: 11:15]

Maybe the White Sox could be a buyer. After all they seem to be collecting a bunch of old Dodgers players who have bad contracts.

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:11:17 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

This week turned out to be all about Rafael Soriano for the Atlanta Braves.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 13th:

In the Press...

There were early rumors, then more rumors, and finally Rafael Soriano decided to accept arbitration from the Braves.
Soriano was quickly traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for another bullpen arm, Jesse Chavez.
There were early reports at the Winter Meetings that Kelly Johnson was in high demand on the trade market, but apparently that was not the case as the Braves non-tendered Johnson yesterday.
Ryan Church was initially DFA'ed to make room for Soriano on the roster, and then he was non-tendered later in the week.
The Braves have shown some interest in free agent Xavier Nady.
Matt Diaz was re-signed for the 2010 season by the Braves.

At Talking Chop...

For a complete and detailed recap of the Braves happenings at the Winter Meetings, click here.
I penned a post hoping that the Braves stay away from Mike Cameron.
CB previewed the Rule 5 draft, and correctly called that Edgar Osuna would be the guy off the Braves roster who was selected. He was selected by, surprise, the Royals. Those Royals also signed two other ex-Braves players.
Talking Chop got the exclusive scoop on all the Braves minor league and international free agent signings.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

jdunk asks the if trading Derek Lowe will make the Braves better.
Meanwhile, JKowalek thinks the Braves and Cubs should make a swap involving Lowe.
And AndrewWK wants the Braves to swap Lowe for a speedster.

Coming up tomorrow on Talking Chop, the combined community top-25 Braves prospects.

Braves at the Winter Meetings... Wha' Happened?

gondeee — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:02:29 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox was one of the main attractions when he gave a pres conference at the Winter Meetings.

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It was such a tumultuous few days, some of us may have forgotten what exactly the Braves did and got out of baseball's Winter Meetings. Here's a recap:

Rumors coming into the meetings had Rafael Soriano "leaning" towards accepting the Braves offer of salary arbitration, instead of declining like he should and netting the Braves 2 draft picks.
Those rumors increased once folks got to Indianapolis.
We had a fun first-day rumor about Yankees reliever Brian Bruney possibly heading to the Braves, but he ended up going to the Nats.
The Braves had interest in Nats outfielder Josh Willingham, but the Nats weren't willing to part with him.
There has been a lot of interest on the trade front in Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson, but nothing else was mentioned after that first day.
After a night of sheer agony and waiting, Soriano finally set the rumors right and accepted arbitration from the Braves.
Because of that decision, the Braves had to DFA Ryan Church, whom they still have not traded (nor likely will).
Like clockwork, Soriano's agent asks the Braves for a trade, thusly skirting the free agent compensation system.
There was some rumored interest by the Braves in free agent Xavier Nady.
But the trading of surplus pitching dollars was top priority over anything else, and our Meeting's were seemingly put on hold until the Soriano situation could be resolved.
Finally, in the middle of the night, we learned that Rafael had been moved to the Rays for a mighty return of... Jesse Chavez.
As if the Braves had not been slighted enough during the meetings, they lost promising lefty Edgar Osuna in the Rule 5 draft to none other than the Royals.

The Soriano trade is not yet official, the two sides are apparently awaiting the medical files or pending physicals to consummate the deal. Tampa Bay got a steal of a closer for next season at a reasonable $7 million-plus. A condition of the deal was that the Rays agree in principal to sign Soriano before the deal was complete.

The good news for the Braves is that we apparently don't have to send any money to the Rays, and thus the whole Soriano Surprise was just an unpleasant distraction that netted us a durable middle reliever for our bullpen next year. Jesse Chavez won't blow anyone's socks off, but in a pen where Cox likes to run people out there day after day, Chavez seems to be a guy that can be abused in that way. He's also a childhood friend of Jo-Jo Reyes, and was good friends with Nate McLouth when they were teammates with the Pirates.

The Soriano Surprise may have been a sour point for some fans, but the original thinking was that the team would not offer him arbitration, and it was only a few days before the deadline that we learned they would. Wren knew the risks, and instead of not offering him arbitration and ending up with nothing, they rolled the dice and ended up with a serviceable and affordable major league middle reliever. As weird as that is, I'd call it a win. Especially since we likely needed another middle bullpen guy like Chavez anyway.

Osuna was not a huge loss in the Rule 5, and the Braves usually do one of the best jobs of any organization of scouting their own players, so while he has talent, the Braves obviously thought more of some of the other guys they protected.

We have to believe that the main goal accomplished at the Meetings for the Braves was to lay the groundwork for a future trade of Derek Lowe. They should know the full market by now, and whether they need to wait until after Lackey signs or not. Hopefully we'll see some movement on one of those fronts soon, and hopefully he can bring back some sort of more valuable return than a Jesse Chavez, though to clear payroll, I may be willing to accept such a return if it means we can sign a bat.