Can Rafael Soriano Top The Greatest Closing Season In Rays History?

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Kind of a loaded question, but we hope so. We can argue about designated roles, and who is really the Rays best relief pitcher, but Rafael Soriano will hold the title. The team, as well as the other relievers, should benefit from that fact. That also means that he'll get a chance to answer the question posed in the title.

Like catcher and right field, the Rays search for a closer more often than not has come up empty handed. While Mariano Rivera has racked up 478 saves since the (Devil) Rays debut in 1998, 39 different Rays' relievers have comprised the franchise's 427 saves. We now turn to Soriano and hope #40 is the charm.

Looking back on Rays closers, the list is a mixed bunch. Ranging from one of the all-time save kings in Troy Percival down to Lance Carter, the list is hardly a picture of relief aces. Since we know a closer shouldn't be limited to, or just measured by, saves, I decided to set the criteria for a closer as such: The reliever must have pitched at least 40 relief innings in a season with a pLI minimum of 1.60. Here is the list:

Year	Player	IP	pLI
2009	J.P Howell	66.2	1.82
2008	Troy Percival	45.2	1.79
2008	Dan Wheeler	66.1	1.72
2007	Al Reyes	60.2	1.66
2005	Danys Baez	72.1	2.16
2004	Danys Baez	68	1.7
2003	Lance Carter	79	1.73
2002	Esteban Yan	69	2.05
2001	Esteban Yan	62.1	1.82
2000	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	1.95
1999	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	2.21
1998	Roberto Hernandez	71.1	1.73

You'll notice that 2006 is missing; that's because there was zero qualified candidates. No reliever with a minimum of 40 innings even topped a 1.2 pLI. Depending on which part of that season you're looking at, the Rays "closer" could've been any one of the following: Tyler Walker, Dan Miceli, Brian Meadows, Seth McClung, or Shawn Camp. Atrocious.

Now that we have our list, here is how those pitchers performed by FIP:

Year	Player	FIP
1999	Roberto Hernandez	2.94
2001	Esteban Yan	3.23
2009	J.P Howell	3.71
2000	Roberto Hernandez	4.13
2005	Danys Baez	4.2
2004	Danys Baez	4.25
1998	Roberto Hernandez	4.44
2008	Dan Wheeler	4.49
2003	Lance Carter	4.69
2002	Esteban Yan	4.7
2007	Al Reyes	4.85
2008	Troy Percival	5.87

Going with this quick and easy method of analysis, Roberto Hernandez's 1999 season is the golden standard for all Rays' relievers. Hernandez not only had the highest pLI in Rays history, but also the lowest FIP for a closer. A quick check of CHONE's historical WAR database says Hernandez was worth 3.1 wins above replacement that season. Nonetheless, the D-Rays finished in last place that season with a record of 69-93.

The surprise on the list has to be Esteban Yan in 2001. More famous for being referenced in the Simpsons than anything on the field, Yan had the second best closing season according to FIP. Despite what some believe, save percentage does not tell you the whole story. 2009's version of J.P. Howell finished third on the FIP list, and had the Iceman not melted late in 2009, he probably would've given Yan and Hernandez a run for their money.

While the older, oft-injured closer approached has worked in short doses, Troy Percival and his predecessor, Al Reyes, are among the worst closing seasons in the franchise's history.

In 2009, Rafael Soriano posted a pLI of 1.66 for the Braves. He finished with 75.2 innings pitched and a fantastic FIP of 2.54. If he can some how duplicate last season's success in 2010, we will witness the greatest closer season in Rays' history. Not to put to much pressure on the man's right arm (it's fragile, after all), if Soriano can give the Rays 65 high leverage innings and maintain an FIP in the 3.5 season, I'll gladly take that.

Good Question

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 17:00:50 -0000

My FanGraphs colleague Marc Hulet is doing a series on Baseball Analysts where he looks at teams from 10 years ago (1999), here's what he said about the '99 (Devil) Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays | 69-93 (Fifth)

The Rays club has arguably come further than any other organization in 10 years. The 1999 season was just the second season in the brief history of the club. The organization received 34 home runs out of Jose Canseco and 32 bombs from Fred McGriff. Hall of Fame third baseman Wade Boggs played his final MLB season and finished the year with a .301 batting average and a .328 career average. Closer Roberto Hernandez led the club with a salary of $6.1 million (Why does an expansion team need a top-tiered closer?). He did earn his money, though, by saving 43 games. Wilson Alvarez led the club in wins with nine. Bobby Witt threw a team-leading 180.1 innings and managed a record of 7-15. Thirty-five-year-old rookie Jim Morris made headlines by appearing in his first Major League game.

Underline is mine.

Think about it, you're the GM of a new franchise, you know three things for sure:

1. You're not going to win in year one, probably not in year two, and maybe in year three. That's assuming you're a really good GM.

2. Closers are overpriced and often overvalued.

3. Closers are only useful to good teams and teams who can build a closer then trade him for prospects.

The Rays sorta dealt Hernandez for prospects -- well, Ben Grieve -- but that came three years after they signed him and after paying him ~17 million.* I'm going to guess the Rays knew #3, and kinda figured #2 out -- they would only slightly overpay Danys Baez, he would earn ~5.6 mil for ~3.7 mil worth of performance. Which means they didn't know or -- more likely -- didn't believe they would be poor in the immediate and near future.

So, that's why an expansion team needs a top of the line closer; when they don't realize they're an expansion team.

They also gave up Cory Lidle, who was cheap and league average. Of course, if Grieve doesn't lose all traces of power after donning a Rays uni, the deal probably doesn't look too bad, but that's beyond the original point: the Rays overpaid for something they didn't need just to fit in with the rest of baseball.

SB Nation - Roberto Hernandez

Can Rafael Soriano Top The Greatest Closing Season In Rays History?

Good Question