SB Nation - Jonathan Broxton

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

Eric Stephen — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:14:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Randy Wolf tries to emulate the feelings of Dodger fans today

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I don't know what to say anymore.

The Dodgers declined to offer arbitration to all seven of their Type A and Type B free agents today, most notably Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. This means the Dodgers will receive no compensation if any of the free agents sign elsewhere.

I already covered the reasons for and/or against offering arbitration, and I expected to be disappointed today. But not to this extent. On some level, I can understand the argument for not offering arbitration to Hudson, even if I don't fully agree with it. However, not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is just wrong. Wolf is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and is sure to get a multi-year offer somewhere, so he would have likely declined arbitration.

In Wolf and Hudson, the Dodgers had two players that should be welcomed back if they chose to accept arbitration, and they only would be signed to one-year deals. Sure, they might be a tad pricey, but both provide value at or exceeding their worth, and again, it would just be for one year, and only if they accepted arbitration. Could it be that the Dodgers are so strapped for cash that they can't accept even the slightest risk of paying two talented players for one season?

Or is it worse than that? Do the Dodgers not want the burden of having four extra draft picks in 2010, the burden of four extra signing bonuses, possibly totaling somewhere in the $4 million range?

What other excuse could there be besides money? Because if this were strictly a baseball decision, both Wolf and Hudson would have been offered arbitration.

These are short-sighted moves by the Dodgers. Look at this team. The 2009 Dodgers only had the best record in the National League, and they were fueled by a young group of players once drafted by the Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier (OK, he was drafted by the A's), Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, Russell Martin. Unfortunately, you can't continue the process of integrating fresh, new talent into the mix if you don't have the picks to draft them, or if you don't utilize the ones you have. The Dodgers may have potentially saved some money with today's decisions, but they missed a golden opportunity to invest in the future.

It is now apparent to me that general manager Ned Colletti's hands are tied by purse strings. He will have his work cut out for him this offseason, which seems like it could be a long one for Dodger fans.

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Russell Martin hits an RBI single during the fourth inning of Game 4 of the National League Championship baseball series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Oct. 19, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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In his Sunday morning blog, ESPN's Buster Olney suggests the Dodgers will trade one of their arbitration eligible players this offseason:

Los Angeles is expected to move at least one of its many arbitration-eligible players via trade. You might match Halladay with what the Dodgers have to offer -- Canada native Russell Martin plus others. But remember that Martin's OPS has dropped 162 points during the past two seasons. He also is climbing swiftly up the arbitration ladder; his salary might climb from $3.9 million last season to $6 million next season. In the end, the Dodgers might not get the ace they need.

So, I took a look at the list of arbitration eligible players the Dodgers have this offseason. Here is the list:

Hong-Chih Kuo

There are four players that LA will certainly not trade right now: Kemp, Ethier, Sherrill and Kuo. Kemp and Ethier are obvious, and Sherrill and Kuo are two of the best left-handed relievers in the game, so they aren't going anywhere.

Of the remaining four players, I don't see the Dodgers dealing Broxton or Billingsley. John Perrotto wrote in his Sunday On The Beat article that Billz would be available in a trade this offseason. I just don't see it. I see him just having an off year in 2009 due to his jump in innings pitched in 2008. Broxton was one the best closers in baseball during the regular season, but for the second season in a row, Broxton blew up in the NLCS.

That leaves Russell Martin and James Loney. I have been down on Martin for two years now, so I would be happy if he was dealt as part of a package for an ace starting pitcher. I do like Loney, but the Dodgers need a power hitter at first base, and I could see them packaging him for ace starter as well.

Should LA trade Russell Martin, they could go out and sign Bengie Molina who still can hit for an old catcher. He batted cleanup for the Giants most of the 2009 season. If they decide to package Loney, they could move Casey Blake to first base, and go out and sign Adrian Beltre. Beltre is probably the best fielding third baseman in the game, and can still hit for power and steal a few bags.

Poll

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Russell Martin

328 votes

James Loney

161 votes

Chad Billingsley

110 votes

Jonathan Broxton

28 votes

627 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:35 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Gerardo Parra tried to dodge a pounding after a walk-off hit in the 10th inning against the Dodgers on August 15th.

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Not quite as close a poll for the second of the 2009 'Pitties. The B-bullpen of Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada and Leo Rosales swept majestically to a collective victory, for their nine innings of no-hit ball in the marathon against the Padres. The same game is also nominated in this week's category.

One of the good things about baseball having a 162-game schedule is that, even in a disappointing year like the Diamondbacks experienced in 2009, there will still be contests which we remember with great fondness [contrast any 'Game of the Year' poll for the Detroit Lions last season, which I imagine made kinda wretched reading...] Arizona still won 70 games, and included among them were blowouts, squeakers, comebacks, slugfests, pitching duels and marathons.

After the jump, you'll find our selection of the five best games of the 2009 season described in detail - the link goes to the recap of the contest in question.

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

Only twice since 2002 has the team scored a dozen or more and shutout the opposition - oddly, both times were against the Braves. Here, a 12-0 victory was important, not just for the offensive outburst, but because it gave Max Scherzer his first career win, in his fourteenth start. However, it was only late on that it became a sure thing: when he was lifted for a PH in the seventh, after six innings of four-hit ball, it was only 3-0 to Arizona. However, the offense then piled onto the Atlanta bullpen, tagging them fror nine earned runs over the final seven outs, capped by Chris Snyder's grand-slam in the ninth. This was the largest winning margin for the Diamondbacks since 2006.
May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

Arizona had more than their fair share of opposition recoveries inflicted on them in 2009 (44 blown leads in all, ahead only of Washington in the NL), but this was our biggest comeback of the year. We trailed the A's 5-1 going into the eighth, having been stifled by, of all people, former D-back Edgar Gonzalez. However, another ex-Arizonan, veteran Russ Springer, was tagged for three runs without retiring a batter, and we tied things up on a two-run Chad Tracy double. We scored three times in the 11th, but Chad Qualls made it interesting, allowing two runs to score and putting the tying run on third with one out. A ground-ball double-play allowed him and Arizona to escape, 8-7.
June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

I think the fangraph is all we need here, as we blew a 6-0 lead, allowing five runs in the ninth, then traded zeroes with San Diego until the 18th, where Mark Reynolds' three-run shot off a utility infielder won it for the Diamondbacks, five hours and 45 minutes after the first pitch. Madness? This is Petco!
August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

Jonathan Broxton came into the ninth with 25 saves in 29 opportunities, and having allowed just two home runs in his previous 97 innings, going all the way back to June 2008. With a 3-1 lead - Hiroki Kuroda having out-duelled Doug Davis - things looked bleak for the home outfit, especially after Gerardo Parra's K reduced our WP to 5%. However, Mark Reynolds then deposited the first delivery he saw into the bleachers, and three pitches later, Miguel Montero followed suit, tying the game up. Parra then redeemed himself, driving in the winning run with one down in the bottom of the tenth, sealing the Diamondbacks' first series victory over the Dodgers for more than a year.
August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

Seven shutout innings from Jon Garland - not just his best start in a Diamondbacks' jersey, but also his last before getting traded to LA. Mark Reynolds became the first Arizona batter since 2001 to hit forty home-runs in a season. And Justin Upton hit his 21st blast, four days after no longer being 21 himself. On Luis Gonzalez Appreciation Day and in front of the fourth-biggest home crowd of the year to that point, the D-backs rolled to a 9-0 win over the Astros. This was SnakePitFest 2: Clay Zavada pitched a scoreless eighth in front of the mustached ranks of the Zavada Brigade and team president Derrick Hall stopped by to say hello. Yeah, not too bad a day, all told...

Poll

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

5 votes

May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

13 votes

June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

25 votes

August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

14 votes

August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

10 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1). Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control

Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

Are The Dodgers On The Verge Of A Phillies-Like Run?

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next three years should be sweet for the dynamic duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers

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Losing to the same team in the playoffs for two years in a row is awful. It takes a psychological toll, at least on the fans, that the losing team can't get over the hump. The Dodgers lost to the Phillies in last year's NLCS in five games. This year they improved by 11 wins in the regular season, gained home field advantage in the playoffs, and the result was the same. Phillies. Five games. Thanks for playing.

It is times like these that it is best to take a step back to take the long view of the situation. Rather than focus on the failure of losing twice to the Phillies, it is important to note just what the Dodgers have accomplished in these last two years. They are a young, growing team, that had the best record in the National League this season. Rather than focus energy on what roster moves need to be made to get past the Philadelphia road block, a better option would be to look at the Phillies themselves, and the parallels with this Dodger team.

From 2007 to 2009, the Phillies have led the National League with 274 wins, have won three straight division titles, one World Series, and are back this year to defend their crown. Here is a look at the nucleus of those teams, and their ages during this great run:

Pos	Player	2007-2009 Ages	WAR
2B	Chase Utley	28-30	23.8
SS	Jimmy Rollins	28-30	14.4
OF	Jayson Werth	28-30	13.4
1B	Ryan Howard	27-29	12.5
SP	Cole Hamels	23-25	12.2
OF	Shane Victorino	26-28	10.4
RP	Ryan Madson	26-28	3.1
P	Brett Myers	26-28	2.9

The Phillies have really done well to capitalize on the prime years of their best players. The Dodgers have a window with the current nucleus until roughly 2012, the final year of arbitration eligibility for six of their main cogs (plus Jonathan Broxton can become a free agent after 2011). Let's take a look at the ages of the Dodgers' best players for the next three years, to compare it to the Phillies:

Pos	Player	2010-2012 Ages	2009 WAR
OF	Matt Kemp	25-27	5.1
SP	Clayton Kershaw	22-24	4.2
SP	Chad Billingsley	25-27	3.1
RP	Jonathan Broxton	26-28	2.9
OF	Andre Ethier	28-30	2.6
C	Russell Martin	27-29	2.1
1B	James Loney	26-28	1.4

That is a strong core to build around. If the Dodgers can take advantage of the prime seasons of their young stars, like the Phillies did, they will be in great shape. The Phillies are still going to be good next season. But, as many Phillies start to hit the wrong side of 30 years old, their window will close, while the younger Dodgers will keep improving.

The Phillies may have been the team of the last three years in the National League, but if you want a team for the next three, look to the Dodgers.

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

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There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Why The Manny Ramirez Shower Incident Is A Good Thing

Eric Stephen — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 05:28:55 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next shower for Manny Ramirez will be one of jeers, from Philadelphia fans as he rounds the bases with a home run Wednesday night.

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It's funny to see what little things become big stories in the glaring spotlight of the postseason. The latest molehill to be made into a mountain is the Manny Ramirez shower incident. As Jonathan Broxton was pitching in the bottom of the ninth inning last night, Manny was in the clubhouse, taking a shower. Manny was removed after the top of the ninth in favor of Juan Pierre for defensive purposes.

This is the type of issue tailor made for Bill Plaschke. Wind him up, and watch the outrage fly from keyboard to screen. In fact, Plaschke was so excited that his next column was essentially written for him, he couldn't wait, and posted a preview of sorts on The Fabulous Forum tonight:

Jonathan Broxton was sweating. Russell Martin was fearing. Joe Torre was grumbling. The Dodgers hanging on the dugout rail were clenching. The Dodgers fans watching at home were dying.

Manny Ramirez?

He was bathing.

The thing is, this really isn't a big deal. Manny always does this, so why should he change now? As Joe Torre told the NY Times:

"He’s a cool customer," Torre said. "But he certainly didn’t have any lack of respect because of that. I think the way it turned out, it probably doesn’t look good. But it’s nothing different than he had done before."

I do have a bit of an old school mind of this. I have always wondered why starting pitchers, for instance, go take a shower before the game is over, especially when they wait to see if their potential decision is still intact before departing to the clubhouse. But, I realize this is a common occurrence among many players, and if they don't have a problem with it, why should I, or anyone else?

Back in 2007, in a similar situation with the Red Sox, Manny was flippant while down 3-1 in the league championship series:

"Why should we panic?" he said Wednesday in a rare clubhouse interview. "We've got a great team."

And then, this: "It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."

The Red Sox came back to win the three remaining games of that 2007 ALCS, and swept through the World Series as well.

Look, it's not news that Manny Ramirez marches to the beat of his own drum. He is wired differently than most humans, let alone fellow ballplayers. Whatever he has to do to be normal Manny, I'm all for it. As Casey Blake told MLB Network:

In the position we're in, you really have to have an 'I don't give a crap attitude.' Our backs are against the wall, and there's no room for that right now. You just gotta go out and have fun and just play relaxed. There's no room for being uptight anymore.

The Dodgers need to concentrate on winning one game at a time, and the more they can keep to their regular routine, the less they have to think about being down 3-1 or having to win three straight games. No pressure, no problem.

Closers Struggling This Postseason

Eric Stephen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:14:16 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

At this exact moment, the Dodgers still had the lead last night.

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If there is one trend this postseason, it might be the blown save. Jonathan Broxton was the latest to fall victim to it, last night, as Jimmy Rollins smoked a two-run double to turn a potential tied series into a commanding 3-1 series lead. But Broxton is not alone this October. Closers have entered a playoff game in a save situation 16 times so far this offseason, and six times they have blown the lead, a stark contrast to last season:

Closers in Save Situations, 2008-2009 Playoffs
Year	Sv	BSv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WHIP	BA/OBP/SLG
2008	15	3	22.2	14	5	5	7	32	1.99	2.40	0.926	.177/.241/.304
2009	10	6	15.0	19	14	12	13	8	7.20	6.62	2.133	.302/.429/.460

In addition to Broxton, the blown saves are spread out among six of the eight playoff teams. Alex Rodriguez is responsible for two of them, with game-tying home runs in separate games off Joe Nathan and Brian Fuentes. The Angels scored the first runs ever allowed in the postseason by Jonathan Papelbon while eliminating the Red Sox. The Dodgers benefited from Ryan Franklin's wildness (and Matt Holliday's gaffe) in the NLDS.

Mariano Rivera is one of the two playoff closers without a blown save this year, which doesn't come as much of a surprise since his plaque in Cooperstown should probably say "greatest closer ever" or something close to that. The only other unblemished closer this postseason has been Brad Lidge, who was easily the most blemished during the regular season, with his 11 blown saves and 7.21 ERA.

With the wound from last night's game still fresh, I don't know if this is comforting or not. But just know that Broxton isn't alone in struggling this offseason. Misery has plenty of company.

SB Nation - Jonathan Broxton

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Russell Martin

James Loney

Chad Billingsley

Jonathan Broxton

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Are The Dodgers On The Verge Of A Phillies-Like Run?

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Free Agents (13+1)

Options (2)

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Under Contract (4)

Under Team Control (15)

Why The Manny Ramirez Shower Incident Is A Good Thing

Closers Struggling This Postseason