SB Nation - Moises Alou

Stop Saying Omar Minaya Only Goes After Latino Players

James Kannengieser — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:30:14 -0000

The "Omar Minaya only pursues Latino players" topic has appeared again this offseason and the propagators of this myth are out in full force. Perhaps it was brought on by the signings of Alex Cora, Henry Blanco and Elmer Dessens. Maybe embarrassing rubbish like this post is promoting it. Even the mainstream media has been involved, as Bill Madden of the Daily News, ~~deserving~~ winner of this year's J.G. Taylor Spink Award for excellence in baseball journalism, wrote the following in a recent column, only to have the word "Latin" later removed:

Mets? Did somebody say the Mets? They won't spend the money for Holliday, Bay or Lackey and apparently, they're only interested in signing low-budget Latin players...

It's sad that this topic still needs to be addressed. Looking at the racial makeup of the Mets 40-man roster, as provided by a comment from Mark last week, the Mets had 15 Latinos out of 39 players, or 38%. About 29% of MLB players are Latino, meaning the Mets have four more Latin American players on their roster than average. Wow, stop the presses! How many Latinos are presently on the World Champion Yankees' roster? Answer: 19 out of 37, good for 51%. This is irrefutable evidence that Brian Cashman only goes after Latino players. Let the Yankee fan outrage begin. Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi signed Raul Ibanez, Carlos Silva and Adrian Beltre to free agent contracts in his short tenure, and traded for Miguel Olivo and Horacio Ramirez - he too must have only gone after Latinos!

There's more research to be done here I suppose, analyzing the racial breakdown of Mets trades, free agent contracts and the minor leagues under Omar. However, it's not worth mine or anyone's time indulging the uninformed masses who think a general manager would choose 1.5 WAR* Player A over 3.5 WAR Player B because Player A shares the same heritage.

* - If you like, substitute any metric or evaluator you think Omar and co. might use in lieu of WAR. The point remains the same.

Last winter, Omar's Mets were part of a blockbuster three team trade which included Mariners and Indians. In the biggest trade of his reign, at least in terms of player volume, he gave up four Latino players and received (gasp!) three white players in return. It had nothing to do with race. Omar wanted to upgrade the bullpen at seemingly any cost and he got his guy, J.J. Putz. Flawed evaluation of players? Almost certainly. Racial bias motivating a transaction? No, sorry. It's curious how transactions like this are conveniently ignored once the Omar racism watchdogs come out of their holes to spout absurdity. Usually, Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez and Luis Castillo are brought up with nary a mention of Tim Redding, Scott Schoeneweis, Darren Oliver or Gary Sheffield.

If you think Omar Minaya only goes after "certain players" it's because you want to believe the poorly performing GM of your favorite baseball team favors one race over another. It's because you want to believe he has some sort of scheme to decrease the number of non-Latinos in baseball, or to increase money paid out to Latinos in this country. Criticizing his moves in the strict baseball context is not enough for you - it has to become personal, an assault on Omar's character. As always, you're free to have these beliefs, but you're flat-out wrong.

Why Omar Minaya Failed And What It Means For The Future

Sam Page — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:00:22 -0000

On July 27, 2002, Omar Minaya, then General Manager of the Montreal Expos, traded Lee Steven, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Cliff Lee to Mark Shapiro's Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.

In 2002, Major League Baseball owned the Expos. The offseason before, the Expos had narrowly avoided contraction, because the Twins, the other team in line for contraction, had another year on their lease of the Metrodome. In a month the league would agree to a new collective bargaining agreement that barred contraction, but at the time it still seemed a possibility. So MLB's proxy GM, Minaya, looked for a player to maybe help the Expos win a Wild Card berth, a parting gift for Montreal.

One of the many front-office personnel the Expos shed under their reorganization by MLB was Tony LaCava, their farm director. He jumped to the Indians as a cross-checker. When Omar Minaya called Mark Shapiro about Bartolo Colon, Tony LaCava handpicked the prospects the Indians would receive. When the trade was announced, Shapiro, like Bill Smith would be six years later, was denounced as a young GM over his head. It also marked the first time, Minaya got "his guy" in a trade.

I recall this point in baseball history because it has much to do with why both of these men are currently employed as general managers. Both of these general managers are also coming off 90-loss seasons in the wake of playoff aspirations. Omar Minaya and Mark Shapiro, however, couldn't be more different.

Omar Minaya is a former pro-baseball player, drafted out of high school. Early in Minaya's tenure with the Mets, his success was championed as an exemplar of old-fashioned roster construction. Before Minaya lost "his guys," the process entailed conference call between his scouts, Sandy Johnson and Tony Bernazard, and his paperwork guy, John Ricco. This franchise doesn't just contrast the careful calculation of other front offices, it advertises the fact: "Paperwork, that's false hustle. It takes away creativity. People who are into paperwork are into covering their asses, so if things go wrong they can point to all the work they did."

No team evidences false hustle better than the Indians. Mark Shapiro graduated from Princeton and has a reputation as one of the smartest GM's in baseball. Like Minaya, Shapiro surrounded himself with men of similar background--his sidekick Chris Antonetti is a Georgetown man. The Indians under Shapiro have developed a process, which involves a lot of "paperwork," most famously, the proprietary DiamondView system, supposed to quantify a players' holistic value. As Antonetti described the goal of DiamondView: "There's still this level of variability, but we've reduced it to the smallest level we can." The Indians, the front office, are the progressive group many Mets fans clamor for, but the Indians, the team, are the 90-game losers Mets fans are sick of watching.

Therein is an interesting point of comparison: how did these two seemingly polar-opposite executives, who launched each other's career with the most lopsided trade of the decade, end up at a similar point? Of course, there's no easy answer--'They both forgot to hit the win button!'--and the two situations are, to an extent, unique. Still, one would expect the American League's smartest GM and the National League's highest payroll to battle for the playoffs, not the sixth pick in the first-year player draft.

A recent post at Let's Go Tribe entitled "Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro" came up with an answer, thought not a completely comfortable one. The article was the last in a series of posts on why, obviously, everyone should be fired, so there's a sense the author is playing devil's advocate. Still, he raises an interesting point about the nature of the GM's job, and this article is largely an addendum to it, so give it a read too. The crux of his argument and the cliff notes version of the post is neatly summarized here:

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Jay argues that evaluating talent, if not innate, is at least a skill in and of itself. The Colon-trade was Shapiro's signature move, but LaCava, the scout, handpicked the players he would receive. The laundry list of players Shapiro has acquired from horse-trading is impressive, but none match up to Lee-Sizemore-Phillips. In fact, with Huntington and LaCava long gone, is it coincidence that the returns on Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were so underwhelming?

Maybe, but I am more interested in the way this situation runs counter to the assessment I constantly hear, and occasionally have given, of Omar Minaya: "He's a great scout and evaluator of talent, but is too sloppy with resources. The Mets would be better suited with a more statistically-inclined GM." Is this Shapiro/Minaya comparison a two parts to whole situation, where one lacks the scouting acumen, the other a supercomputer called DiamondView?

First, consider Minaya's scouting reputation. Starting out as an international scout with the Rangers, he signed Sammy Sosa. That's the kind of signing you can hang your hat on, and Minaya has, as the other players he signed include non-entities: Chris Colon, Ruben Mateo, Jorge Toca, and Timo Perez(!). He also signed Fernando Tatis and Joaquin Benoit, who became pretty good players. Still, including my performance-enhanced namesake, not exactly the greatest list in the world, but a good one.

This reputation comes equally from his supposed ability to "identify players who can help the Mets" and get them, irrespective of costs. It sounds basic, but seemingly describes whatever Shapiro lacked when deciding "whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood," as Jay says. Call them Minaya's guys, as in "Omar got his guy" or Minaya's favorite synonym for person.

It started with his two biggest free-agent pick-ups: Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Pedro's talent was obvious, but the contract was a minor disaster as he was injured through most of it. Minaya claimed that Pedro "made the brand," i.e. made the Mets more attractive to international free agents, but the jury is still out on that one. His other big signing, Carlos Beltran, will undoubtedly go down as the biggest success of his tenure. Beltran, one of the few true five-tool players left in baseball, has been worth significantly more than his $18M/year. It's unclear to what extent Minaya predicted, or even knows, that to be true, as he likely just sought to get Beltran for the best price he could, without any precise estimation of his value. In fact, Beltran was supposedly someone Minaya didn't get the green light to sign in Texas. Carlos had been Minaya's guy for a while.

When the Mets were at their best, in 2006, his guys were nearly always coming through. In a 2006 article, Dave Studeman identified ten players that Minaya picked up on the cheap and became integral parts of the great '06 squad: Chad Bradford, Darren Oliver, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Jose Valentin, John Maine, Endy Chavez, Roberto Hernandez, Guillermo Mota, and Oliver Perez. Players like Jose Valentin, a guy no one else would expect to be a starting-caliber second baseman, were making Minaya look like a genius, like he had that something Mark Shapiro lacked. Those were ten moves that get you on the cover of Sports Illustrated, that made people pay attention when you started talking about "false hustle," as if it were secret knowledge.

In the conclusion to that piece, Studeman writes, "It may be luck, it may be skill. It may be the result of a team with money taking good calculated risks." Here's a hint: six of those players were relievers, the most luck-dependent players in baseball. Ultimately, though, time revealed the truth: it was luck. Even from that original list, of the seven he retained, five fizzled out, either from injuries or ineffectiveness. Regarding the other two, Endy Chavez was replaced by the awful Jeremy Reed and Pedro Feliciano became the last man standing in several subsequent bullpen failures.

Then, Minaya started to display some bad tendencies. He became too loyal to his guys: if a reliever with poor skills floundered in the first-half, Minaya would trust him to right the ship. Similarly, as if to underscore that he had done something right, Minaya would pay ridiculously over-market contracts to previous buy-low pick-ups, like Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, negating the value that made the moves good in the first place. He proved unable to manage injury risks, entrusting Moises Alou and John Maine with serious duties while keeping no reliable back-ups on hand. Minaya's front office overreacted to small sample sizes, see: Omir Santos, Marlon Anderson, and Daniel Murphy. He gave away Heath Bell, Brian Bannister, and Darren O'Day.

Yet, none of these miscues sticks out as a particularly strong indictment of his ability's as a scout, just as a talent evaluator. Moises Alou was a great player, when he played. He was a horrible pick-up for a team that needed a reliable, everyday left-fielder. On the major league level, talent evaluation involves using the most accurate objective measures to evaluate a player's track record, something observation can't do reliably, in any sport or field. These past few years, the Mets would have been better suited with a Mark Shapiro-type, with no particular scouting expertise, but an ability to objectively evaluate major-league talent and make sound business decisions. With a large payroll and the established core of Wright/Reyes, it seems the Mets badly needed some false hustle, some paperwork, some stability, not a huge gamble at 15 of the the 25 roster spots every season.

But maybe it is too late for that. As fielding stats get more widely accepted, it seems a glorified Moneyball scenario, where a few teams with superior objective analysis carry an edge, is becoming less likely. As more players, are signing long-term deals with the teams that drafted them, and fewer are hitting free agency, the statistical analysis the Mets have been so neglectful of becomes just the baseline. Indeed, as Jay wrote about some of the most successful teams around the league: "it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the 'Ivy League whiz kid' GM model tend to have a 'wise old baseball man' figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan." With that pattern in mind, I was encouraged to read that the Wilpons convinced Sandy Johnson to stay out of retirement, allegedly in preparation for a non-Minaya centric front office.

For similar reasons, these forces will also probably push forward the mythical symbiosis of scouting and statistics that everyone pays lip-service to but isn't quite sure what they're referring to. More than just pitchf/x and hitf/x, the observation of both amateur and professional talent will come down to hyper-specific scouting reports that use data and observation to spot trends of growth or deterioration in a player's skills. And maybe, even then, it will take some "wise old baseball man," with a special eye for talent, to build the best franchise.

On December 10, 2008, the Mets, Indians, and Mariners completed a three-way trade, in which the Mariners received Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, Maikel Cleto, and Franklin Gutierrez. The Mets received J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green, while the Indians received Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena.

This trade, for me, perfectly encapsulates two failed models for a front office and the future of a what it means to a successful one. Omar Minaya acquired a talented player with serious injury concerns, and severely downgraded two known major-league entities, presumably not knowing he did. Shapiro acquired a minor league infielder with good stats, but a "bad body" and mixed scouting reports. While there is plenty of time for him to improve, Valbuena was merely replacement level this season. Meanwhile, Jack Zduriencik, the long-time scouting director who understands and embraces statistical analysis, brought in a 6-WAR centerfielder and a boatload of interesting prospects.

The Mets under Minaya were famed for embracing multiple perspectives, both of the scout and the statistician. Sadly, they failed to understand how those roles fit into a functioning front office. First, they need a reliable process for evaluating and valuing major league talent, a la the Indians. Then, they can get their "guys."

Billy Wagner's Most Valuable Pitches

James Kannengieser — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 10:00:10 -0000

To commemorate Billy Wagner's return this week, I compiled a list of his top 10 most valuable pitches as a Met per WPA. It should bring back some pleasant, and not so pleasant, memories during this lost season. A major caveat of relief pitcher WPA is that relievers often create their own high-leverage situations. Walking the bases loaded in the 9th inning then striking out 3 in a row will result in higher WPA figures than a 1-2-3 inning. The Mets won 8 out of the 10 games listed here, with the 2 losses coming within a rough 1 month stretch in 2008.

10. 7/22/2007
Play: Matt Kemp struck out swinging in the 10th inning
WPA: .166
Game Result: Mets 5, Dodgers 4

Chip Ambres singled home Lastings Milledge in the 10th inning and Wagner struck out the side in the 9th, but not before issuing 2 free passes and throwing 1 wild pitch. There were 2 outs in the inning after Kemp struck out. See entry #3 for the final out of the game. I remember this one distinctly, as I was at KeySpan Park watching Moises Alou's rehab game when the Ambres single was shown on the scoreboard to thunderous Coney Island applause.

9. 8/2/2006
Play: Miguel Cabrera struck out swinging in the 9th inning
WPA: .172
Game Result: Mets 6, Marlins 5

In an attempt to give the Mets fanbase a collective heart attack, Wagner allowed 2 baserunners in the 9th before striking out the side to end it. This specific strikeout ended the game. Those 3 batters he K'd are pretty good too - Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Dan Uggla. See King Hanley's strikeout at entry #5.

8. 8/8/2007
Play: Jeff Francoeur reached on fielder's choice, Chipper Jones out at home in the 9th inning
WPA: .184
Game Result: Mets 4, Braves 3

Moises Alou homered in the bottom of the 8th to put the Mets ahead 4-3. Wagner closed the door in the 9th despite giving up 2 singles and a walk to load the bases with no outs. Frenchy followed with this fielder's choice, and the final play of the game can be found at entry #1.

7. 5/23/2008
Play: Ryan Spilborghs reached on a fielder's choice, Todd Helton out at second in the 9th inning
WPA: .184
Game Result: Rockies 6, Mets 5

With the Mets desperate for a win, Wagner surrendered a solo homer to Matt Holliday which tied the game 5-5 in the 9th. Billy tried his best to lose the game, giving up 2 singles following Holliday's blast, but he induced this fielder's choice by Spilborghs and eventually got Scott Podsednik to pop out. Aaron Heilman eventually lost this game in the 13th.

6. 6/12/2008
Play: Orlando Hudson reached on a fielder's choice, Stephen Drew out at home in the 9th inning
WPA: .185
Game Result: Diamondbacks 5, Mets 4

O-Dog's groundout preserved the Mets' 4-3 lead in the 9th inning, temporarily. Conor Jackson's fielder's choice plated the tying run, and Aaron Heilman gave up a sacrifice fly in the 10th in what would be one of Willie Randolph's last games as manager. This game especially sucked because I took off a day from work to attend. I'd rather sit at my cubicle than watch the 2008 Mets Bullpen Horror Show.

5. 8/2/2006
Play: Hanley Ramirez struck out swinging in the 9th inning
WPA: .185
Game Result: Mets 6, Marlins 5

This save preserved Steve Trachsel's 10th win. I wonder if there's been a worse 16 win season than The Human Rain Delay's 2006?

4. 6/13/2006
Play: Pat Burrell grounded into a double play, Bobby Abreu out at second in the 9th inning
WPA: ..193
Game Result: Mets 9, Phillies 7

In a rare 5-out save, Wagner induced a double play by Chase Utley to end the 8th and then another by Burrell in the 9th. Aaron Rowand struck out to end the game.

3. 7/22/2007
Play: Nomar Garciaparra struck out looking in the 10th inning
WPA: .246
Game Result: Mets 5, Dodgers 4

Garciaparra struck out to end this one, putting the Mets in 1st place in the NL East by 3.5 games.

2. 4/29/2006
Play: Andruw Jones grounded into a double play, Chipper Jones out at second in the 9th inning
WPA: .304
Game Result: Mets 1, Braves 0

Wagner was dominant in his first month as a Met, posting a 0.69 ERA in 13 innings pitched. A Paul Lo Duca home run accounted for the game's only run, and Billy induced a double play from Andruw after Chipper led off with a single. Jeff Wincoeur ended the game with a strikeout.

1. 8/8/2007
Play: Andruw Jones grounded into double play, Jeff Francoeur out at second in the 9th inning
WPA: .458
Game Result: Mets 4, Braves 3

The top 2 spots on this list are Andruw Jones double plays, and this one came immediately after the play at entry #8. The Mets were 4 games up in the NL East following this game. Things were good back then, weren't they?

Gaslamp Ball Interview: Harry the Heckler

jbox — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:48:45 -0000

Harry the Heckler has heckled just about everything that walks or crawled at one time or another. He's been sitting in the left field of Padres ballparks since the beginning of time and he was kind enough to answer some questions for us.

Gaslamp Ball: What are the top 3 things that go into a good heckle?

Harry: Wait for the crowd noise and stadium music to die down. Yell very loudly. KEEP IT CLEAN.

Gaslamp Ball: What's your "Heckling Manifesto"?

Harry: Keep it Clean. Never curse or use four letter words. Don’t talk about the players mother or his wife and kids or his girlfriend. Saying something funny is a lot more effective, especially if you can get the crowd laughing at the player. I don’t drink beer at the game because I don’t want to become known as a drunk heckler or say something inappropriate.

Never heckle your own players.

Gaslamp Ball: When your heckles are not living up to your expectations, what keeps you going?

Harry: Other fans often encourage me to get after a player during the game. Sometimes other fans will give me info on a player. I’ve even had players give me info on players.

Gaslamp Ball: What's the most interesting thing a player's bribed you with to not heckle him?

Harry: Opposition players have given me dozens of game used autographed bats over the years in exchange for me laying off for the series. My best are the ones Brian Giles has given me, both when he was a Pirate and after he came here. Another of my favorites is the second one given me by Lance Berkman of the Astros on which he inscribed "to the best heckler in the league, well, the loudest anyway."

Gaslamp Ball: Have other San Diego fans ever tried to get you to sit down and be quiet?

Harry: Many fans have complained about me over the years. They get moved.

Gaslamp Ball: Do the Padres tend to approve of what you do?

Harry: I believe they do. The Padres players have given me many dozens of autographed bats, balls and lots of other stuff over the years, they show me on TV all the time and talk about me positively. The outfielders quite often throw me a warm up ball during the game so I can give it to a little kid.

Gaslamp Ball: Have you ever been heckled? Is it a bitter pill to swallow?

Harry: Sure, it’s all part of the game. I tend to work with it and turn it back on the person heckling me or my boys on the field.

Gaslamp Ball: Do you root as well as heckle? Do you cheer for the boys or do you save your voice for heckling the opposition?

Harry: Of course, I’m up high fiving up and down the aisle with everybody when we play good. And yelling encouragement to my boys if they miss the play.

I always cheer for my boys, and I yell at everybody; opponents, umpires, who ever should incur my ire and wrath.

Gaslamp Ball: In general, do you feel Padres fans are active enough or are they complacent and rely too much on scoreboard cheers?

Harry: The Padres fans do a great job, but I think the wave is over.

Gaslamp Ball: Do you reprimand hecklers who are "crossing the line"?

Harry: I’ll ask a fan to watch their language. If they continue or other fans complain about them, I’ll go get security. I have had fans removed from the park before.

Gaslamp Ball: Do you believe that one of your heckles has affected the outcome of a game?

Harry: The fact that so many players have bribed me to be quiet, and the left fielders who have asked to be moved to play right field (Moises Alou) when they come here; I’d say yes, I have affected the game.

Gaslamp Ball: Have you ever taken threats from players seriously? Bonds threatened to kill you right?

Harry: No, most of the time it’s just them cursing at me or flipping me off and telling me what they would like to do to me.

Back around ‘01 or so, Bonds pulled his inner groin muscle on his right thigh on his first at bat running to first base. He was down below me in left field messaging his thigh with his hand when I yelled very loudly "Barry, you’re not hurt. You’re just using that as an excuse to play with yourself in public". His next at bat while running to first base he pulled the muscle completely and had to be helped into the clubhouse. Where, according to a clubhouse guy I know, he went ballistic throwing stuff around and cursing. The next night He came up to me and told me if he ever caught me away from the park he’d beat me to death.

Gaslamp Ball: What advice could you give an aspiring heckler?

Harry: Go to a LOT of games. The more the players see you and hear you, the more effect you’ll have on them. Do your research on players, their stats, what’s happened to them in media, the internet. Pay attention to what the player is doing on the field, at bat. Watch what he does and work with what you see. Use good judgment in what you say, it’s a FAMILY environment. If you do drink, keep it to a minimum otherwise people won’t respect you and you lose your effectiveness.

Poll

Do you enjoy fans heckling the opposition?

Yes, heckling is entertaining

118 votes

No, I'd prefer peace and quiet

33 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

Around the Majors, 5/14/2009

DbacksSkins — Thu, 14 May 2009 22:27:22 -0000

More photos » by Susan Walsh - AP

Would this puppy dog face lie to YOU?

Browse more photos »

Travel day today, as our Men In Red embark upon a possibly-epic 10 game roadtrip, wherein we will probably ~~lose a bunch more games~~ go 10-0 and the rest of the division will go 0-10, so we'll take over the NL West lead.

There are a few news nuggets from around the baseball world. Follow me after the jump, and we'll discuss Roger Clemens, Stephen Strasburg, instant replay, the ailing (and failing) Yankees, and more.

(All links will open in new window)

A 7 time Cy Young Award winner and alleged multiple time performance-enhancing drug user went on ESPN's Mike And Mike In The Morning on Tuesday to deny the mounting Himilayas of evidence that he used performance-enhancing drugs. The public appearance was designed to coincide with the release date of a new book that purports to describe further details of Clemens' drug use -- American Icon: The Fall of Roger Clemens and the Rise of Steroids in America's Pastime. Clemens' performance was met overwhelmingly with either a collective shrug or a collective "What the **** is he thinking? Why doesn't he keep his mouth shut??" The largely negative reaction might explain why Clemens is "taking steroid denials to the people", as the New York Daily News put it. Meaning, he's going to answer emailed questions for a newspaper in his hometown of Houston. Roger reminds me of a great quote from George Costanza: "Jerry, just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it".

Roger Clemens seems to think that, if he keeps saying something enough times, it'll become true and/or everyone will start to believe him. Still hate Barry Bonds? Hey, at least Bonds was smart enough not to discuss the 'roids with anyone. He's got plausible deniability when it comes to the government's pending perjury case against him: they're going to have a tough time convicting him, given that he only said he never "knowingly" took steroids. The 'Roid Rocket, on the other hand, is in a tougher spot. Not only has his former trainer, Brian McNamee, turned state's evidence, but former teammate and personal friend Andy Pettitte refuses to back down from his claim that Clemens mentioned using performance-enhancing drugs to him while they were both with the Yankees.

As "evidence" that he never took PEDs, Clemens mentioned that his family has a history of heart problems, and his brother had a heart attack in his 40s, his father died of one, and that it would be "suicidal for me to even think about taking any of these dangerous drugs." However, it turns out that his stepfather died of one. Yes, stepfather -- as in, no blood relation. Left unasked, however, was why, if he was so concerned with the dangers of PEDs, he allowed Debbie Clemens to take HGH. Also left unasked was whether he had had sex with any 15 year old country music stars lately.... (Bonus coverage: Click here to vote for your favorite Roger Clemens extramarital affair!!)

Should alleged performance-enhancing drug users like Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, and Barry Bonds be eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame?

Yes, because steroids don't help you hit or control a fastball.

21 votes

No, they broke the law, the public trust, and it's not fair to other players who didn't use steroids.

53 votes

Not sure. There are good arguments either way. Maybe we should use an asterisk?

16 votes

What? I thought this was a Dbacks blog, not ESPN!!

12 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 15:02:55 -0000

Some things to read while helping evolution along.

So with Angel Salome and Mike Rivera both missing time with injuries, the Brewers are down to three healthy catchers and will have to bring Martin Maldonado back from minor league camp. It could be a short-term problem, though, as Rivera is only expected to miss a week or so, Salome's injury is not believed to be serious and Vinny Rottino's Italian WBC team will probably be eliminated by Monday or Tuesday.

We've beaten up on the Journal Sentinel in this space a lot lately, and perhaps deservedly so, but some credit is due for Brad Nelson's profile today, which is worth a read. Everyone seems pretty happy to see Nelson succeed.

Meanwhile Lorenzo Cain, the newest Brewer outfielder in camp, learned something about bringing a shirt with your name on it to major league camp. It sounds like Mike Cameron had some fun with it. It might be stretched out now.

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated stopped by Brewer camp this week and had some nice things to say about the team. There's not much in there you might not have known, except a note about the "Clubby Olympics."

Beyond the Box Score gave a value to each NL Central team's farm system, and the Brewers lead the way with a value of $99.7 million. BtB was also kind enough to stop by and share this pie chart showing where that value was accumulated.

Ryan Braun had a big day yesterday. Not only did he hit a home run in Team USA's win over the Phillies, he was also #4 on David Letterman's Top Ten List, and got to make a joke about the metric system.

Bernie's Crew did the math and estimates the Brewers lost about three wins this offseason. That seems fair.

If it's not the worst job in baseball, it's certainly in the top five: Imperial Parking is holding a job fair for parking attendants at Miller Park.

Around other camps:

Cardinals: Signed former Twins RP Dennys Reyes. They may also be considering signing Pedro Martinez to close.
Giants: Released Dave Roberts, but will still have to pay the last year of his contract.
Phillies: Signed Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Andruw Jones has struck out 10 times in 14 spring training at bats, and will lead off every inning in a B game today.
Yankees: I think something may be going on involving Alex Rodriguez.

The 2009 World Baseball Classic may be the last hurrah for Moises Alou, who is planning on retiring. A press conference will be tentatively scheduled once he's healthy enough to stand behind a podium without straining a hamstring.

If you were in the parking lot in Peoria yesterday during the fifth inning of the Giants-A's game, you might have been in for a surprise: Giants hitting coach Carney Lansford was out there, pacing while his son Jared was pitching for the A's.

This is what it might have been like if the World Baseball Classic was played in 1935: Seamheads has the story of a near international incident that occurred at an exhibition involving a Japanese All Star team in Milwaukee.

Oh, and Milwaukee needs to grunt more. Sperling's BestPlaces rated Milwaukee as America's 17th Manliest City.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:10:52 -0000

Some things to read while not making decisions.

So, last night, roguejim (and likely others) got their mellow harshed by the sudden and somewhat unexpected news that the Brewers see themselves as being done spending for the offseason.

Here are the things I do understand: This year's Opening Day payroll projects at right around $80 million, which is where the Brewers also stood on Opening Day last year. And I also know the Brewers aren't in a market to out-spend the Yankees and Red Sox. But, with that said, in the last two weeks the Brewers have gone out of their way to mention both of the following:

On ticket sales:

The Brewers have sold 1 million tickets for the 2009 season, the earliest date in team history they have reached that mark.

"Typically, we do not reach the one million mark until group tickets are made available, but this year the pace has been extraordinary and we reached the milestone through selling multi-game packages alone," said Brewers vice president Rick Schlesinger.

"Fan enthusiasm was at an all-time high at the end of last season, and that has carried over to give us tremendous momentum in early 2009."

And on sponsorships:

The Brewers announced a presenting sponsorship agreement with Potawatomi Bingo Casino on Thursday, part of the team's expected double-digit percentage gain in sponsorship revenue. And despite the economy, other areas of the Brewers' business are looking up too.

"We are very sensitive to what's going on, and we're very careful in what we're looking at," said Rick Schlesinger, the Brewers' executive vice president for business operations. "But I will tell you that ticket sales, suite sales, sponsorship -- we're seeing growth in all areas."

I added the emphasis to the final paragraph. Growth in all areas...except the payroll. And the payroll isn't growing despite tickets selling at a record pace, and double-digit sponsorship growth. If the Brewers go into Opening Day without having added a pitcher to the rotation and having spent their last $6 million on a 41-year-old closer, I'm not sure how this offseason can possibly rate any higher than a two or three on an out-of-ten scale. I've added a new poll to the sidebar to get your opinion on it.

The timing of the "we're done" announcement is also puzzling at best, because this weekend is the Brewers On Deck event. You can still stop by, though, to pick up 2009 Timber Rattler tickets and merchandise.

But, Prince Fielder is signed to a two-year deal worth $18 million. The JS reports Fielder ranks sixth all time in AB/HR before age 25. On the flip side, Intersportswire has a quote suggesting Fielder might have the biggest waist in baseball uniform history.

EDIT: The details on Fielder's contract are in, via Tom H: Fielder received a $1 million signing bonus, and will be paid $6.5 million in 2009 and $10.5 million in 2010.

Rumor has it Craig Counsell may also be coming back. That would solve the "who is the backup shortstop?" dilemma.

Speaking of shortstops, be sure to stop by and offer your insight into the community projections at shortstop. Also, I forgot to mention it yesterday, but there's still some time this morning to add your thoughts to the third base projections.

Not bad for a first year outfielder: Of the Brewers three everyday outfielders from 2008, Ryan Braun is the only one who rated above average in The Hardball Times' 2008 Outfield Arms Rankings.

Yesterday I noted that Ryan Braun and Corey Hart both made FakeTeams' Top 10 NL Fantasy Outfielders. They expanded on the rankings today, and Mike Cameron is #18.

On the hot stove:

Dodgers: Are reportedly close to a deal with Randy Wolf.
Mets: Signed Freddy Garcia to a deal that could be worth as much as $9 million with incentives.
Phillies: Could be getting ready to sign Moises Alou, who could be getting ready to turn to dust.
Rockies: Along with the Dodgers, D-backs, Rangers, Padres, Indians and Cardinals, they will watch Kris Benson throw on Saturday.

So Keith Law revealed his top 100 prospects yesterday, although 26-100 are behind the Insider curtain at ESPN.com. This link would have made the top half of the post, but no Brewers made the top 25.

If you've enjoyed our pieces explaining the arbitration process, Rule 5 draft and others, then you may also find some value in this Houston Chronicle piece explaining the waiver system. (h/t Shysterball)

There wasn't a Winter League Update today because no Brewers played in games yesterday. In the Dominican Winter League Championship Series, no baseball was played at all as Cibao forfeited Game 3 of their best of nine series to protest a suspension stemming from a player/umpire incident in Game 2. The player, Cibao second baseman Felix Martinez, took the field to start Game 3 as if nothing were wrong, and the entire team left the field when informed he had been suspended.

If you're a young pitcher with a low pitch count, perhaps you should learn to pitch to contact: Tangotiger crunched the numbers and discovered that the average ball in play from 1993 to 2008 only took 3.29 pitches, but the average K took 4.82. (The average walk? 5.60.)

Nationals outfielder Elijah Dukes has found yet another way to get into trouble: he owes over $40,000 in child support, and will go to jail if it isn't paid today. All of this is compounded by the fact that Dukes has reportedly spent his entire 2008 salary (nearly $400k), and won't get paid again until Opening Day.

The torch has been passed and baseball now has a new oldest living player. Bill Werber, a former teammate of Babe Ruth, died yesterday at 100 years old. The new oldest living player appears to be Tony Malinosky, who spent one season with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1937.

Oh, and forgetting Brian Clutterbuck may be the first sign old age is setting in.

Drink up.

And We Note Our Place With Book-Markers: The Dangling Conversation, Part IX - Ongoing Offseason Jays Conversation

hugo — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 16:17:58 -0000

It's been awhile since we've done a dangling conversation installment, so let's get to it. Today we'll be discussing Blue Jays wunderkind Travis Snider and whether the Jays should go ahead and hand him the keys to the leftfield job in 2009.

Rincewind:Should the Jays clear a spot for Travis Snider to play everyday in 2009, or should they start him in AAA?

Hugo: That’s a good question. Projection systems can’t agree whether Snider would tread water this season if handed a starting job or whether he would be an above-average regular. Marcel and Bill James have him over an .800 OPS while ZIPS doesn’t like him at all, pegging him at only .715 with 151 Ks and only 39 walks. If I had to guess, I think Snider would be a solid regular next season, based on what looked to me to be a mature and solid approach at the plate. Yes, he struck out a lot, but no more than he did in the minors. More worrying was the drop in his walk rate, but I would expect to see that go back toward his minor-league numbers. Snider had a very high BABIP last year (.417) but a good part of that was based on high line-drive rates so some of that should be sustainable. I think he will be a competent major-league hitter if given a full-time job.

That said, I would be much more comfortable with Snider beginning 2009 in the minors, from a team standpoint. I would rather see the Jays sign a bat and have Snider putting up some big AAA numbers in the Pacific Coast League so that he will be the first brought up for the inevitable injury. Even if no one gets hurt and everyone is playing great, we trade Overbay to maximize his value and put Lind at first base. Anyway, my point is that if someone gets hurt or flames out and we have Snider in reserve, that’s a pretty good plan B. If we use Snider, who do we use in the event of an injury or flameout at 1st/DH/OF – Inglett? And it’s not like we’re holding Snider back – he was the youngest position player in the majors last season and there’s no doubt but that he will play a big part in 2009.

Rincewind: My worry is that they do to him what they have done with Lind, bring him up, sent him down, bring him up, send him down……So I am worried that if Snyder is used as the injury replacement this year he’ll suffer the same fate. What I’d want the Jays to do is when he is brought up to the team, be it the beginning of the season or sometime in the middle or the start of 2010 is that they tell him ‘you are now a major leaguer, you won’t see the minors again’. Make a commitment to him so he can learn the league and he doesn’t have to worry that a 0 for 4 will have him back in Las Vegas.

I’m not really against the idea of him starting the year in Toronto, he is young but the best players start when they are younger. If he does, I hope he is told ‘you will play 150 games this year, barring injury, so relax and play the way you can. He is the type of talent you have to make that sort of commitment to and just understand it will pay off in the end.

Lind never seems to have been allowed to just learn how to play in the majors, until Cito came in, and I can’t imagine that has helped his development at all. Yeah I know there isn’t a plan B if Snyder starts but then last year plan B turned out to be Wilkerson and a cast others that shouldn’t have been in the majors. Actually plan A was guys that should have been in the majors. Plan B was the circus coming to town. Inglett is a better backup option than Stewart/Stairs/Wilkerson/Mench were last year.

So while I’d like them to pick up a bat, I don’t want Snyder just an emergency call up, if they want to leave him in Triple A for the season, that’s ok. But if they call him up I want him to be an everyday player and stay one for the next ten years.

Hugo: I agree that Snider shouldn’t have to worry about being sent down after an 0-4 day with 3 Ks and an error. The hard thing is what to do if Snider is brought up to the majors, told he doesn’t have to worry about his job security, and then shows that he’s really not ready. Then you have to go back on your word or keep an unready player in the majors. So when they tell Snider that, I want him to have a very high likelihood of success. I think a little time in the minors wouldn’t hurt.

One idea I've been toying with lately is signing an injury-prone vet like Moises Alou. He performs well when on the field and he’s all but sure to get hurt, which will give Snider his chance to play everyday when it happens. Once Snider comes up, you tell him he's got a job and you can keep Snider up after Alou returns -- mixing and matching Alou with the lefties Lind, Overbay, and Snider, and getting them all regular playing time. And of course there is a lot that Snider could learn from watching Alou, a gifted and accomplished hitter over his career.

Here are our past installments:

Part 1: Good and Bad of 2008
Part 2: Jays Priorities for the Offseason
Part 3: Should the Jays Rebuild?
Part 4: Who Should Lead Off For the Jays?
Part 5: How Should the Jays Fill Out Their Rotation
Part 6: Part 6: Can the Jays Complete with Barajas catching and Scutaro at Short?
Part 7: Should the Jays Trade From Their Bullpen?
Part 8: Part 8: What Should Be Done About the DH Spot?

Friedman: "I still think we’re in good position to end up with an impact bat"

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 15:34:22 -0000

From St. Petersburg Times

Andrew Friedman speaks about the Rays quest for a bat.

“I still think we’re in good position to end up with an impact bat,” Friedman said. “We’ll continue to monitor the market and figure out the optimal time to make a deal from our standpoint and the player's. ”

Friedman said Monday that talks with several free agents have gotten “more pointed” in the past week, but nothing is “imminent” as they continue to assess their options from a field that includes Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley ( rumored to be headed to the Cubs), Adam Dunn and Garret Anderson, and could include Ken Griffey and Moises Alou.

Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley , Adam Dunn. ~~Garret Anderson, Ken Griffey and Moises Alou.~~ Some of those names don't belong with the others. I have no idea where Moises Alou's name comes from. He will be 42 next season and has not played more than 100 games in a season since 2005. That's not the "impact bat" that we need.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:31:08 -0000

Some things to read while watching out for giant inflatable bears.

If you're wondering where today's Winter League Update went, there isn't one. Everyone was off yesterday. The Update will be back tomorrow.

There are 74 more days until pitchers and catchers report, but only four more to vote in the BCB Reader Survey. Please take a moment to do so, if you haven't already.

As noted below, the Brewers offered arbitration to CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse yesterday, but declined to offer it to Eric Gagne. If Sabathia or Sheets sign with another team, the Brewers get one of thier draft picks (either in the bottom half of the first round or the top of the second), and a pick between the first and second rounds. If Shouse signs with another team, the Brewers just get a pick between the first and second rounds. Gagne is free to sign with anyone, no compensation required.

Also, as noted in the FanShots, the Brewers signed former Braves 1B Scott Thorman to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. Barring some sort of emergency, he likely won't appear above AAA in 2009.

Are you craving more CC Sabathia links? Rob Neyer wonders if Sabathia's weight and the New York media's tendencies to make fun of overweight athletes might make the Yankees a bad fit for the 290 lb lefty. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons is suggesting the Angels may court him by taking him to Del Taco.

Now, a moment to focus on Jason Kendall's defense. Beyond the Box Score says he saved 4.86 runs this season by blocking pitches, the third most in all of baseball. Kendall's actual block percentage is lower than a handful of other catchers, but Kendall saved more runs based on increased opportunity.

Via Rattler Radio, I noticed that MILB.com has started their Top 50 prospects list, and Jeremy Jeffress is #44. There's a joke here about being high on Jeffress, but I'll pass. Prospects 31-40 are due out today.

This year's Hall of Fame voters will see the smallest ballot ever, with only 23 players eligible for induction. Among ten first time candidates are former Brewers Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac and Greg Vaughn.

Lots of arbitration news, and some other stuff on the hot stove today:

Angels: Offered arbitration to Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera, Darren Oliver and Jon Garland, but not Garret Anderson.
Astros: Signed Mike Hampton to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Offered arbitration to A.J. Burnett but not Gregg Zaun.
Braves: Declined to offer arbitration to John Smoltz.
Cardinals: Declined to offer arbitration to Russ Springer, Braden Looper and Jason Isringhausen.
Cubs: Declined to offer arbitration to Kerry Wood.
D-Backs: Offered arbitration to Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but not to Adam Dunn or Randy Johnson.
Dodgers: Offered arbitration to Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake but declined to offer it to Joe Beimel, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny and Jeff Kent.
Giants: Declined to offer arbitration to Rich Aurilia.
Marlins: Declined to offer arbitration to Luis Gonzalez, Paul Lo Duca and Arthur Rhodes. They may also be looking to trade Matt Treanor.
Mets: Offered arbitration to Oliver Perez but not Luis Ayala or Moises Alou. They also signed C Rene Rivera.
Padres: Declined to offer arbitration to Trevor Hoffman.
Phillies: Declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer. They also expressed interest in Mark Loretta.
Rangers: Offered arbitration to Milton Bradley.
Reds: Offered arbitration to David Weathers and extended an offer to Arthur Rhodes.
Rockies: Offered arbitration to Brian Fuentes.
Royals: Offered arbitration to Mark Grudzielanek.
Tigers: Declined to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria.
Twins: Offered arbitration to Dennys Reyes.
White Sox: Offered arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, but not to Ken Griffey, Toby Hall or Juan Uribe.
Yankees: Declined to offer arbitration to all eight of their free agents, including Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Chad Moeller.

If you want to check my work or see all this information nicely color coded, Amazin' Avenue has you covered.

Also, the Hanshin Tigers have reportedly agreed to a deal with Kevin Mench.

On a sad note, Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers has passed away. He was 75.

Fire Brand of the American League recently interviewed Peter Gammons, and of course they asked him what he thinks of blogs. His response is moderately incoherent and rambles off onto a tangent, but I think it's possible he likes blogs...maybe?

Oh, and it took Kirbir and I, working together, an hour and a half to beat this game yesterday. Can you do better? I never would have gotten out of the bathroom without her.

Drink up.