SB Nation - Endy Chavez

Selective Application Of Statistics

James Kannengieser — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 11:00:17 -0000

A common refrain of those who do not like their baseball analysis inundated with statistics is something along these lines:

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

This is usually uttered by those unwilling to let statistics disprove perceptions. In general, this is a silly statement. Statistics exist to measure whatever it is they set out to measure and nothing more. Numbers alone cannot deceive, as long as the benefits and limitations of such numbers are understood. Stats like wOBA and UZR are frequently cited here, but only because the writers and most members of the community comprehend the context neutral linear weights concept behind wOBA and the sample size limitations of UZR. Criticizing statistics without fully understanding their strengths and weaknesses happens more than it should, unfortunately, and is a major pet peeve. That said, it is true that statistics can be used by people to unfairly support biased arguments.

A post about Mike Cameron at Metsmerized provided an example of the thought that stats are sometimes used to bolster pre-conceived biased positions:

I think that more and more people would accept advanced metrics if the stats weren’t used so often to strengthen just one side of an argument.

I’m not knocking advanced metrics, but I do find fault with them when they are used to make unfair comparisons.

The point here seems to be that advanced metrics are used as a weapon to trumpet players like Cameron who, atleast in the eyes of the MMO writer, isn't as good as Fangraphs suggests. This couldn't be further from the truth. Advanced stats are cited only because the methodologies behind their calculation have been investigated, questioned and eventually accepted by the best minds in the sabermetric community. If I invented a stat and continued citing it despite being discredited by Tom Tango or Colin Wyers, my credibility would be shot. WAR, UZR, Plus/Minus, etc., have been scrutinized by the likes of The Hardball Times and Statistically Speaking and been accepted as worthwhile metrics. It's not some nonsense created with the intention of making money or fooling people. The other point about the inability to compare the values of players who play different positions is also invalid, as posts like this one by Mark illustrate.

I like to think I'm generally unbiased in any analysis I provide so coming up with an example of my own selective application of statistics is impossible. Endy Chavez is one of my favorite players but I wouldn't project a .350 wOBA as part of an argument in favor of signing him. However, I'd like to offer an example of how even an enlightened writer might appear to be selectively using numbers to agree with an agenda. Howard Megdal of SNY, MLBTR and about three dozen other outlets is a well known Oliver Perez fanatic (just look at the Baseball-Reference sponsor for the RMS ~~Titanic~~ Perez). Unsurprisingly, he has often provided opinion on Derek Lowe, a pitcher the Mets reportedly pursued last offseason before eventually settling on Perez. In a post at MLBTradeRumors from October about Lowe being available in a trade, Howard wrote:

Lowe is coming off of a season with a 4.67 ERA along with a strikeout rate of just 5.1 per nine innings. He certainly didn't finish strong, with a 5.05 second-half ERA, and a 6,23 [sic] mark from September 1 on.

ERA isn't my pitching statistic of choice but sure, Lowe had a somewhat disappointing season. At his debate site, the recommended The Perpetual Post, Howard participated in a Lowe vs. Perez discussion in November:

I think it represents the likelihood that Lowe, fresh off of an 88 ERA+, is likely to be around that or below it for the remainder of his three years and $45 million.

A healthy Perez has been considerably better than the 2009 edition of Derek Lowe. Time and reality are converging to bring Derek Lowe’s career to an unceremonious close. It isn’t time to declare Atlanta the winner in the choice of Lowe over Perez just yet.

Again, ERA+ isn't a great metric for evaluating a pitcher's performance but I can live with it. That is until reading this piece by Howard at SNY about Mike Pelfrey:

Pelfrey had a 3.72 ERA last year, while even Sunday's stellar performance only lowered his 2009 ERA to 4.83. But let's take a closer look.

Fangraphs has his FIP at 3.96 last year, 4.18 this year -- a negligible difference in performance over the two seasons.

Wait a second, why is Pelfrey afforded the FIP treatment but Lowe isn't? Lowe's 2009 FIP was 4.06, significantly better than his ERA. He was a victim of an inflated BABIP and subpar defense backing him up, much like Pelfrey. Why not consistently utilize stats for player evaluation? Having read Howard's work for some time now, I doubt he consciously wanted to unfairly paint a negative picture of Lowe. However, this is an example of how a known affinity for one player over another, and subsequent assessment of those players, might cause some readers to question a writer's intentions. In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true. Rational people can have differing opinions. Those opinions will certainly be respected as long as they're not served up with a helping of "Get your noses out of the books, and keep your eyes on the ball."

Certain metrics are largely ignored here, with good reason. For pitchers, W-L record and ERA are generally useless. For hitters, RBI doesn't really tell us anything. For fielders, errors and fielding percentage have become archaic. Better metrics are consistently applied and there isn't much bias in player evaluation. Regardless, should any of the AA writers or community members appear to be twisting stats to fit a pre-conceived agenda, I would expect a commenter to blow the whistle. If it happens, please point it out.

Also, happy holidays. Or, alternatively, bah humbug!

Who Can Be Minnesota's Fourth Outfielder?

Jesse — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:12:49 -0000

It's been a slow couple of weeks for baseball fans in Twins Territory, as we wait for news of a third baseman sighting or maybe a Joe Mauer extension. But this is something of an under-rated question for the off-season check list: who will the Twins have as their fourth outfielder in 2010?

I'm already assuming that, left to right, Ron Gardenhire's outfield will be Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. You could jot Jason Kubel down as the fourth outfielder, but I'm happy to pencil him in as simply "DH". Right now there is no obvious answer for that fourth guy because there's nobody left to backup Denard in center field.

Corey Patterson

Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 175

Born: Aug 13, 1979

Remember this guy? He had a couple of decent offensive seasons with the Cubs a few years back but his value was in his defense. In 2004 he was one of the best center fielders around (33.8 UZR/150), and even outside of that season he was always a guy who fielded his position very well. It seems he should be a lot older considering how long he's been playing, but the guy just turned 30.

Patterson wouldn't have been a bad option, if he hadn't already signed a minor league contract with the Mariners. So who else fits the bill?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Coco Crisp	49	180	30	41	8	5	3	14	29	23	13	2	.228	.336	.378

Crisp is just 30 as well, and managed to perform a pretty solid disappearing act in Kansas City last year. He's played a lot of outfield over the years, and in general he's done it well. Like Patterson he's not really a threat with the bat in his hands, and he hasn't been able to duplicate the success of his 2005 breakout season, but his value is in his glove and his ability to backup a position that nobody on the major league roster could do for the Twins. At least, nobody that you'd want out there for any kind of an extended period of time.

Unfortunately it looks like Crisp will be off the market shortly, as the Athletics have been tied to him over the last few days.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Rocco Baldelli	62	150	23	38	4	1	7	23	11	37	1	0	.253	.311	.433

Baldelli just turned 28 at the end of the season, and again it's hard to believe after all he's been through. He's lucky to still be playing the game after his medical condition was mid-diagnosed, and he's a long time removed from finishing 3rd in rookie of the year voting (2003) and from his last solid offensive season (2006). In spite of those red flags there is some upside with Baldelli; he's younger than most of the guys on this list, he's versatile and he's likely to come at a bargain rate.

I like Baldelli. If only so I can cheer for a guy called Rocko (hey, no more Boof). But clearly there's got to be a guy out there who doesn't have that kind of a rap sheet on health.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Scott Podsednik	132	537	75	163	25	6	7	48	39	74	30	13	.304	.353	.412

Pods is coming off one of his best seasons at the dish, and in spite of turning 34 in March is probably one of the best free agent players of the profile we're looking for. That career .340 OBP isn't great, but there's a lot worse around. Traditionally his defense isn't a good as most of the guys on this list, but he has two things that play in his favor: he played all three outfield positions in 2009, and he's very fast. Anytime you can close a gap, that's a good thing. And like John Madden used to say, you can't teach speed. Actually he probably still says that.

Podsednik is not a starter. But he does have value as a fourth outfielder, and I think you could do a lot worse.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Endy Chavez	54	161	17	44	3	1	2	13	14	22	9	1	.273	.328	.342

Chavez turns 32 in February and, in spite of being a decent contact hitter, doesn't have a lot of value at the plate. He does have good speed, but (and you might be picking up on a trend here) his value lies in his defense. Over the course of his career he's logged hundreds of innings at all three outfield positions and, as a general rule, he's played all three at a high level.

Obviously because of his offense (career 75 OPS+) this isn't a guy you want to expose a great deal at the plate. Also, there should be some concern over how his knee is after tearing his ACL last June. But as far as defensive options on this list go, Chavez might be the best one.

Joey Gathright

Boston Red Sox

Height: 5-10

Weight: 185

Born: Apr 27, 1982

Gathright is one of those guys who has some good tools, and either hasn't learned how to use them or they just aren't as good as we were told they were. He had a great year in part time with the Royals in 2007, but in general has been underwhelming in terms of performance. But again, he's quick and he plays all three outfield positions. He's good at stealing bases.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Randy Winn	149	538	65	141	33	5	2	51	47	93	16	2	.262	.318	.353

This is a popular guy, and I don't really expect him to sign with a team that won't start him everyday, but at this point in his career I have to wonder if he's at a crossroads. He'll turn 36 in June and, although he put up good offensive numbers for the Giants in '07 and '08, he's clearly not the player he was in his prime.

Winn can play all three outfield positions, and if he's looking to sign with a team with a legitimate chance for October, if he's looking to sign with a good team for a lesser role to get that shot at a ring, then maybe this is something he considers. If the price is right, Winn would be my choice of anyone on this list.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

Then there's the internal option. Pridie is younger than anyone on this list, just turning 26 in August. He can backup Denard in center field, he has a little pop in his bat, and I have to believe he'll be playing with something to prove. But he strikes out way too much at the minor league level, is allergic to getting on base, and has no major league track record to show what he can bring to a club with any certainty.

Would you sign any of these guys? How much of a concern is a fourth outfielder to you at this point?

Not "goodbye," just "see you soon": Yanks' last regular season homestand ends in 4-3 loss

CrazyYankeeChick — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 05:14:13 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

FORGET THE BALL! SAVE YOURSELF!

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There was no better testament to what's seated at the forefront of Yankee fans' minds then when Nick Swisher very awkwardly misplayed the fly ball that scored the go-ahead run:

A month ago, the bar would have thrown its hands up in aggravation. Typical Swish! Bobbles the cans of corn, nails the web gems! Grumble grumble. Get your head in the game, boy.

Tonight? Me and the bartender shouted in unison: "DON'T GET HURT!"

At the risk of sounding like a Second Play Red Sox fan who's been bitterly arguing for the last 2 weeks that these games are meaningless, I will say that losing the last home game, in a game we could have won against the Royals, with a loss that snapped a hot winning streak...actually didn't get me too riled up tonight.

There was, of course, the requisite sting. But after briefly commiserating with the other Yankee fans populating the bar, the consensus was a resounding: "I love this team. And their biggest games are still ahead of them."

I'll tackle the one negative aspect of the night first. And you probably know what's coming, since it's basically become a boilerplate element in anything I write now, (I think it's even inadvertantly come into play in thank you notes, receipt signing, and a grocery list):

Joba Chamberlain.

I've been panned left, right, and center for outright dismissing him for the better part of the seasons.

The Yankees are about to enter the most important period of the season, and the argument can be made that with the unquestionably best team in baseball, this is the most critical opportunity they've had in since 2001 to make something happen. That said, is there a Yankee fan on the face of the planet who is comfortable with Joba starting in the playoffs?

In his last 10 starts, he's 1-4 with a 7.75 , giving up 56 hits in 40 2/3 innings.

According to Joba, this the result of a combination of factors: poor fastball command (that's a start...) and "the first cooler days of the fall." (Well, sure. I mean the bitter 55 degree arctic climate of Manhattan is gong to dramatically impact any young midwestern transplant who still tightly clings to many childhood memories of balmy Nebraskan winters.) Rule #76, buddy...

While Joba is absolutely a much better pitcher than Sergio Mitre, both inspire the same level of confidence in me. And both have the same chance of either dealing or bombing. It's a fun little game of Russian Roulette with every Joba start. Are we gonna see the guy who seamlessly made quick work of the Sox last week, cruising through 6 innings on 86 pitches? Or are we gonna see tonight's Joba, who lasted 3 2/3 innings, and who needed 91 pitches to walk 4, give up 3 runs on 7 hits, with only a little over half of his first pitches being called for strikes?

Maybe he turns into David Cone come the playoffs. Anything's possible. But what makes this risk more rational than say, batting Brett Gardner in clean up? As far as I can tell, there's about the same chance of our little firecracker slugging in heaps of RBIs...as there is of Joba waking up, giving the old "Shelled or Excelled" wheel of fortune a spin, and getting a positive reading.

Well, my mom always says that everything happens for a reason, and everything works out for the best. So maybe tonight's loss was a good thing? Maybe we needed a loss to spotlight the liability with this pseudo-starter?

(Ah, I"m feeling a little nostalgic...my last regular season Joba rant! We've had some "good" times...)

As for the rest of the game:

It would have been cool to get another comeback win and even cooler to break the record for most wins in a stadium's season (57, currently tied with Fenway). But I'm all for picking our battles, so to speak. I'm ok with a loss because it's like they're saving their best dramatics for the playoffs. Plus there's a verrrrry little part of me that gets a little paranoid about "no-end-in-sight" hot streaks, ever since the Rockies' run in 2007. Momentum isn't foolproof. Just ask Endy Chavez.

Jorge Posada made a throw to second in the 5th to try to catch Mark Teahen. While he was rightly called safe, I couldn't help but marvel at the throw--a bullet zipped from home, without ever moving out of the catcher's squat. A perfect, sharp zinger that was made from his knees. I don't extol Jorge's virtues enough, but you gotta wonder where we'd be without him and his 4-out-of-5 tool threat.

After KC scored in the first off third-string catcher Brayan Pena's RBI single, Derek Jeter responded in the bottom of the inning with a solo blast. For the rest of the game, it was the B. Pena, Teahen, Billy Butler, and John Buck circus act of run-manufacturing. The best the Yanks could do was a 2-run shot from Swish, (I really thought we had the game won after that).

With game tied at 3-3 and when it was later 4-3, I realized that with each Yankee batter stepping up, I thought every single one of them had a good chance to win the game for us. I remember days of the confidence peaks and troughs, but right now? The words "bottom of the order" mean nothing.

I really liked the fact that the YES Players of the Game were the Yankee fans.

I also really liked the fact there's someone named Tug Hulett playing professional baseball, when he sounds like he should be bursting into choreographed musical numbers as the guileless hero in an off-Broadway musical.

When the game ended and I started to leave the bar to head home, a couple of Sox fans did that whole passive-aggressive-shot-at-your-team-while-you're-walking-by move.

"Hey, the Yankees lost, by the way."

Really, Second Place Sox Fans? Are you really going down this route?

Words actually failed me. I think Boston fans are possibly the last people who should open their mouths tonight.

"Just wait til October," one continued. "You're only as good as the last game you played."

(To be clear, the Red Sox lost tonight for the 6th consecutive game. 12-0.)

So...I guess it's safe to say that Sox fans have officially removed reason and sense from the table.

The postseason nears. So let's savor these last 3 games before our own levelheadedness gets taken out of the picture, as well.

-CYC

2010 Yankees Center Field Showdown: Melky Cabrera vs. Brett Gardner vs... Cody Ross?

devil_fingers — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:12:29 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

"Don't celebrate my departure too soon (at a baseball game), boys. I hear Goldman wants Ca$h to bring in Cody Ross. Yeah, you heard, me, Cody Freaking Ross. He has a fan club and everything."

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In a recent Pinstriped Bible blog posting, Steven Goldman argued that while Melky Cabrera might be adequate for the moment as the starting center fielder for the Yankees, that the club should look elsewhere for next season. Goldman's main point:

It would be unrealistic to expect even a team with the financial capabilities of the Yankees to field an All-Star or MVP candidate at every position, but that's not a reason to keep striving to get better wherever you can, however you can. It is axiomatic that a team that accepts that it is "good enough" at a position will not win consistently, or at all. Complacency will kill a nascent dynasty faster than hamstring pulls and cigarettes combined.

There is much to comment on in this blog posting (see the Think Factory discussion). For example, calling Nick Swisher, he of the 3.6 WAR (that's about the same as Jason Bay or J.D. Drew at this point in the season), "inconsistent" is Joe Morgan-esque. Ignoring the Yankees other significant holes for 2010 is also curious. Indeed, the whole post, with its discussions of league-average offense by position, vague references to defense without numbers, etc., strikes me as a very "pre-FanGraphs" sort of approach to internet player analysis.

However, I'm not going to be issuing a bunch of snark regarding a good writer's problematic blog posting. Rather, taking Goldman's post as a jumping-off point, I want to look at three options for the Yankee 2010 CF that he mentions: Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and the Marlins' Cody Ross (for whom Goldman suggests the Yankees trade.). I will compare them utilizing less vague and more helpful concept of WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

I've done a number of these "true talent" postings lately (on Jason Bartlett, Jamey Carroll, and Matt Murton, among others), so you can look around the blog to see how it works. I won't review all of the "methodology" here -- it's pretty simple weighted averages and regression to the mean, etc. using publicly available data. There are no big secrets. I just don't want to make this more boring than it has to be. Feel free to ask in the comments section. I'll go component by component for all three players. These are "true talent" estimates based on information as of last night. I'll go component-by-component for all players, just to mix things up.

Hitting

Melky Cabrera is the youngest player of the group, being only 24 at the beginning of the current season. His major-league wOBAs from 2006-2009 are .333, .317, .285, and .328. Regressing to the mean and applying a slight age adjustment, that projects to about a .327 wOBA for next season. Given this season's run environment, that means he projects as a minus 1 run (one run below average) hitter for 2010.

Cody Ross is 28 this season and the best hitter of the three. He will be 29 next season. From 2006-2009 his wOBAs are .310, .446, .345, and .342. He projects as a .344 wOBA (+9) hitter next season.

Brett Gardner (who is only briefly considered in Goldman's post) is 25 this season. Gardner hit terribly in the majors in 2008, posting a .282 wOBA. He's been very good relative to expectations this season, sporting a .349. But given the sample size and his performance in the minors, I decided that I needed more data. So I tried something new. I got his MLE from the minors from 2007 and 2008, converted them to wOBA, and incorporated them into my data. I'm not sure how great the method it, but the result I got -- a .318 projected wOBA (-6/700 PA) -- is close enough to his preseason projections from CHONE, etc. that I don't think it's distorted.

Fielding

For the fielding portion, I used UZR as implemented at FanGraphs as my primary stat not only because I suspect it's the best defensive stat out there, but because it's publicly and freely available. I heavily regress outfield projectoins. I regress UZR based on Speed Score, as has often been suggested for OFs. Defensive stats being what they are, I also incorporated the Tom Tango's Fans Scouting Report Converted to runs. I usually do a weighted average 75% regressed UZR + 25% FSR, but for Gardner, given the extremely low sample, I did 50% regressed UZR + 50% FSR (his defense would project even better without the FSR!).

The Milkman has been up-and-down, defensively. While he's been decent according to UZR his season (+3.1/150), in 2007, when he had the most playing time, he was dreadful (-10.7). The Fans Scouting Report is even less enthusiatic, having him at -4.8, -2.4, -2.7, and -8.0 (2006-2009) according to my "translations." So it's a mixed bad. Altogether, he projects as a -2/162 defender in CF for next season.

Cody Ross has been similarly up-and-down. He's -7.1 UZR/150 in CF this season comes after an excellent +18.3 in 2008. He was terrible in limited time in 2007, but good in 2006. The FSR hasn't been too impressed, with a -9 in 2006, a -9.5 in 2007, and a -3.5 2008. But Cody's fan club must have been working overtime this season, as he's all the way up to 0.2. PUtting it all together, and adjusting for age as Ross enters his late 20s, he projects as a -1 /162defender in CF in 2010.

Like Nyjer Morgan, Brett Gardner is the kind of player who would have been dismissed a Juan Pierre wanna-be prior to the wide public availability of defensive stats. And his numbers are so outstanding in brief playing time that they have to be taken with a grain of salt. Or, as grains of salt are expressed here -- with plenty of regression. UZR has Gardner was an insane +56.8/150 in the OF in 2008 (in only 39 games), and +14/150 in 2009. The Fans Scouting Report shows its value here by not forcing us into either taking these on face value nor dismissing them completely. The FSR has Gardner at +4.2 in 2008, and +5.8 in 2009. Putting it altogether (note his impressive speed scores), Gardner projects as a +9 defender in CF for 2010.

Baserunning

Don't worry, almost there. I used Baseball Prospectus' excellent EqBRR for this portion. Since FanGraphs' version of wOBA includes steals, I substracted that portion out. Briefly -- both Melky and Cody project as pretty much average ("0") baserunners, while Gardner, even after heavy regression due to low playing time, projects as very good at +2 (keep in mind that the "spread" is very small).

Putting It All Together

The difficult in the "old days" would have been how to weigh offense (and then how to weigh OBP and SLG relative to each other, etc.) vs. vague assertions about defense, positional value, etc. Baserunning would probably be totally ignored. But the beauty of WAR is that, while one can debate over whether the projections were done correctly, how replacement level is set, positional adjustments, etc., one can at least get it all out on the table. So here it is... in a table (ahem). Since all three players are being projected at CF, the positional adjustment is +2.5 runs per 162 games. To account for the difference in league difficutly, following Tom Tango I use 20 runs as replacement per 162 games for the NL (Ross) and 25 runs for the AL (Cabrera and Gardner). It's easy from there: I sum all those toger to get Runs Above Replacement (RAR). Then I convert to WAR by multplying RAR times 85% playing time, then simply dividing by 10 to convert runs to wins.

Player	Hit	Field	BsR	Pos	Replace	RAR	WAR
Melky Cabrera	-1	-2	0	+2.5	+25	24.5	2.1
Cody Ross	+9	-1	0	+2.5	+20	28	2.4
Brett Gardner	-6	+9	+2	+2.5	+25	30	2.6

Goldman writes that Gardner is only "fractionally" better than Melky, and given the nature of WAR, 0.5 isn't a huge deal. But he does look better. What is interesting is that Gardner also projects to be better than Cody Ross. If you don't but the league adjustment, well, I'll just ask you to compare the NL East's pitching staffs with those in the AL East. Despite recent comedic assertions that Brett Gardner should only be at the head of a list of terrible baseball players, he's seems to be above average here (2 is about MLB average), and the best candidate of the three to play center field for the Yankees. He's another potential Endy Chavez (another defensive standout player underappreciated in the pre-UZR era), and might actually have a shot at having a league-average bat. Gardner might not be 1998 Bernie Williams in 1998, but he might be 2009 Nyjer Morgan.

But this isn't all about Gardner. Melky is still almost as good as Ross. Don't get me wrong -- Ross is a decent player that could help a lot of teams. But why should the Yankees trade talent for a guy who, if he's better, is himself "fractionally" better than the alternatives (at best), older, and, yes, getting more expensive? Even the Yankees operate on a budget, and as we've seen, even they occasionally need to rely on some homegrown talent (e.g., Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, etc.) rather than free agency. Even if the Yankees should panic (they shouldn't) over Austin Jackon only hitting four home runs this season, they have cost-controlled talent that should be more than adequate in place.

Finally, given that they have a massive holes opening up in left field and at DH with the free agency of the declining Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui (not to mention their relatively shaky pitching), it seems to me that the Yankees considerable organizational resources would be better spent elsewhere, say, on Matt Holliday (easily the best free agent outfielder this season -- far superior to Jason Bay, but that's another post) for LF. If they must trade, make it for Adam Dunn as DH (although I'd suggest trying to sign Jim Thome or especially Russell Branyan for that position -- Branyan in particular can actually play the field a bit and will be cheaper).

These are much bigger issues than being "stuck " with a player who is "only" average or above-average at center field, a problem that wouldn't be solved by trading for an older player who isn't any better. On the other hand, if the Yankees really share Goldman's low appraisal of both Cabrera and Gardner, I know a team short a couple of outfielders...

Let's Get Defensive: The "Plan" For 2010

Sam Page — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 10:00:36 -0000

With the announcement that no major changes would be made to Citi Field's dimensions in 2010, Jerry Manuel decried the Mets were going to make a team built around "pitching, speed, defense." Omar Minaya has been beating that drum (while not necessarily building that team) for years. Metsblog called for a more specific version of this basic outline (emphasis of everything except Whitey Herzog his):

…instead, the Mets should be more specific… i’d like to see them put together a two– or three-year plan to develop, sign and trade for the best infield defense on the planet, have pitchers who get ground-balls on command, and an offense modeled after Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals…

Addressing the content of the quote, focusing on groundball pitchers is the opposite of building a team to suit Citi Field. Yes, groundballs are generally better than flyballs because they become outs more often, and are less likely to become extra-base hits, but focusing resources to convert your pitching staff to groundball pitchers is more appropriate for a team like the Rockies, not the Mets. Besides, the Mets are already heavily invested in flyball pitchers Johan Santana and Oliver Perez and infield butcher Luis Castillo. To build a team defensively suited for Citi Field, outfield defense should come first.

First, however, realize that "speed" offenses are a stupid concept. Speed can be important. Over the course of a season, however, the best baserunners in baseball, i.e. Ichiro, Carl Crawford, Reyes, contribute at most +10 runs a season. That's roughly the difference between a .350 and .335 wOBA starter, a few extra homeruns, a better walk rate, just one win. Stop talking about the Rays and other teams of the like as "speed" offenses. The Rays are a good because of the AL homerun leader Carlos Pena and sluggers Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria. Take away those three and see how they fare with Carl Crawford and BJ Upton stealing home every game.

Secondly, the Mets defense this year has been terrible, the worst in the league according to Ultimate Zone Rating. Before the season, I jokingly made the Mets continental map of Citi Field based on their fielding prowess:

Now, faced with continental drift and global warming, the map looks more like this:

The Mets' bullpen is 10 runs below average. The Mets' offense is 17 runs below average. The rotation is 41 runs below average. The Mets' defense is 49 runs below average, worst in baseball. There has been some discussion that the lack of Citi Field park-factors has skewed that data against our outfielders, and I believe that to an extent. Does that close the 23 run gap between the Mets and the next-worst team in the NL, the Nationals? No.

Must be the injuries, right? Don't assume. This season the primary culprits of poor defensive play have been: Gary Sheffield (-10 in LF), Luis Castillo (-9 at 2B), David Wright (-8 at 3B), and Jeff Francoeur (-7 in RF). Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes also registered negative values, despite being historically good fielders.

I think part of the problem will resolve itself. David Wright has obviously been affected by the nagging leg injuries Jerry Manuel mentioned. Jeff Francoeur is probably suffering from a small sample-size fluke. Still, Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, and David Wright will all cary the baggage of leg injuries into 2010. In order to reduce this strain, improve the defense, and protect the Mets best investments for 2011 and beyond, I suggest a defensive shift. The Mets could easily move Beltran to left, where he would be a plus-plus-defender, bone bruise or not. In center, Reyes could take over, opening the door for a defensive specialist short-stop, or another centerfielder. Think of how Reyes' speed would translate to CF. A UZR greater than 10? I would bet on it. His bat certainly plays there. Alternatively, the Mets could pursue a Mike Cameron-type player. While Cameron, Nyjer Morgan, Marco Scutaro, or Mark Ellis aren't as attractive as names like Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, or Matt Holliday, they could be just as valuable after a realignment of the defense, at significantly less cost.

On the pitching side, I think Mets fans (and media) have a hard time separating pitching from defense. Better fielding makes pitching look much better, which is why pitching is usually grossly overrated. Many think the Mets need a "#2 starter," and while I wouldn't mind another above-average pitcher to complement Johan, "#2" is a label, not an explicit need. With better team-defense, I bet Mike Pelfrey would fit many people's description of a #2. Take the Mariners and Rangers, for example. Both drastically improved their defense, the Rangers through a realingment of a star veteran (Michael Young) and by bringing in several good-defensive outfielders to rotate (Jones, Byrd, Cruz), something the Mets lack with defensive zeros Reed and Sullivan. Kevin Millwood has never looked so #2-ish. The Mariners brought in death-to-flying-things Franklin Gutierrez, allowing Ichiro to shift to right. They also brought in several defensive-specialists including Endy Chavez, Ryan Langerhans, Jack Hannahan, and Bill Hall, at minimal cost. The result? They traded Jarrod Washburn and his shiny new ERA, for a younger, better version of Jarrod Washburn. Now the Mariners field a rotation of averagish to below-average starters, on the cheap, masked by a great outfield defense.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure the Mets know the difference between pitching and fielding either, as the now-horrifying Putz trade facilitated the Mariners improvement, while costing the Mets their last defensively-useful backup. Realigning the defense, however, while adding fielding specialists on the bench is a creative and cheap way to build a good team that suits Citi Field.

Atlanta Braves - Washington Nationals: Series Preview

gondeee — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:54:37 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg

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The Washington Nationals are coming to town to face our Atlanta Braves for a 2-game series -- we had a 2-game series with Philly in April; I wonder why they scheduled two 2-game series this year, that's weird. Anyway, we get to face the Nats at the hottest possible time -- they are on an 8-game winning streak. I figured it was time to check in with a Nats expert, and I summoned Ed Chigliak of the Nats blog Federal Baseball. Below are my questions to him about the Nationals, and his questions to me can be found here.

Q: How does a team like the Nationals and their fans handle an 8-game winning streak? You're so used to the opposite, does anyone really know what to say when they're winning? Tell us how the Nats have been doing it for 8 straight.

A: Honestly, writing about wins was really awkward when the Nationals started picking it up recently. I had gotten so used to chronicling losses that it was tough to turn it around and focus on the positives when they were successful. The Nationals fans that I know want the team to be good, and we watch every day expecting the team to do what they've done recently because a decent percentage of us see the team moving in the right direction in terms of rebuilding the organization top to bottom following a nearly decade-long dismantling at the end of the Montreal years. What we've seen on the current 8-game win-streak is a team that leads the league in errors, with 99 in 112 games, committing just 1 error over the last 6 games, while an offense with the second-best team batting average and second-highest team OBP in the NL keeps getting people on and driving in runs. Combine that with average starts and excellent bullpen work and they're 14-11 since Jim Riggleman replaced Manny Acta and 8-0 in the last eight...(so what if it's against the Pirates, Marlins and D-Backs)...

Q: Will the Nationals sign Stephen Strasburg?

A: In the Poll I have running at Federal Baseball.com, where people are asked simply Yes or No will the Nationals sign Strasburg?, after 255 votes it's 155 to 100 in favor of the two sides reaching a deal. The Nationals had to have done their homework and come to the conclusion that they could sign Strasburg before they drafted him, otherwise it's a ridiculous decision to take him. I believe Strasburg's going to get a record contract, and I'm hoping that when DC went about courting Mark Teixeira this winter, they made enough of an impression on Teixeira and Strasburg's agent/advisor Scott Boras that he recommends DC as a destination. From the start I've said it's going to cost $20M+ and I'm sticking to that.

Q: Looking back on this season so far, how has the Adam Dunn signing affected this team? Was that a good move or a bad move?

A: I thought the Dunn signing was a horrible move at first, mainly because I didn't see why you would pay him the money (2-years/$20M) that they did to hit his 40/100 on a 100-loss team, but having watched his improvement at the plate and in the field, I have to admit Dunn's won me over. (The K's though, all 126 of them are tough to take.) I watched him play first base in the WBC and could not believe they intended to trade Nick Johnson and insert Dunn at first, but now it looks like his average/decent play could make him a legitimate National League player for a few years longer than people thought. That's not to say he's great there, he misses grounders he should get to, and he's reached into the basepath once or twice, but he's better than I imagined in just about every way...except the K's...and his outfield defense...he's just as bad as I imagined in those ways...

Q: Why didn't the Nats make any big trades at the trade deadline? Are you pleased or pissed about that?

A: They waited too long, they weren't getting anything of value offered in return, and in the end the Nationals decided they didn't want to part with their most valuable commodities, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham, who have both rewarded DC's faith this season. The Nationals did of course trade Nick Johnson to Florida for a pitcher who was at least highly-regarded, former 1st Round pick Aaron Thompson, who was on the 3 of the last 4 lists of the Marlins' top prospects according to Baseball America. The big trade the Nationals did make, which is widely regarded as a fleecing of the Pirates right now, dependent upon what Lastings Milledge becomes, was to trade Milledge and the struggling Joel Hanrahan to Pittsburgh for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett. Morgan's been phenomenal since moving to DC and he's given the Nationals the center fielder they've been looking for since Endy Chavez didn't pan out...while Burnett's been solely a positive addition to the bullpen Mike Rizzo had to rescue from Jim Bowden's poor judgement. I'm pleased with what Mike Rizzo's done, I just wish they'd give him the GM job on a permanent basis.

Q: Is Ryan Zimmerman the best all-around third baseman in baseball? Why or why not?

A: How do you decide if Ryan Zimmerman's better than David Wright, or Chipper Jones, who, in his prime, I'd take over just about anyone. Zimmerman's 3rd in the Majors in hits amongst 3rd baseman, tied for second in the Majors in HR's by third baseman, has the third-highest RBI total, and he's got the third-highest batting average and third-highest OPS in the National League, and he's behind Mark Reynolds of the D-Backs and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants in most of those stats, neither of whom are in Zimmerman's league defensively. (Though Zim's 13 '09 errors have been worrisome at times). Right now he's projecting at about 35 doubles, 30 HR's and 100 RBI's, he's hitting over .300, (.309 as of Monday), and he's putting up the best on base and slugging numbers of his career, there aren't too many people I'd take over Zimmerman if I needed a third baseman right now.

Many thanks to Ed for his great answers to my questions.

50-44, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 05:33:19 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Breakdown of Russell Branyan pictures: 10% portrait, 5% laughing, 5% fielding, 20% swinging, 0% sprinting, 60% jogging.

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For two hours, this felt even worse than yesterday. Through no fault of the King, the Mariners looked set to lose on the most sacred of days, coming out helpless against a bad pitcher and giving no support to their ace. Down 1-0 and doing little to suggest an imminent change, the M's looked weary, and for the thousandth time in the past few months I found myself thinking the same old thought to which each of us seem all too eager to return - perhaps this is the day that we tuck in our dreams. When Hannahan got tagged out at third on Ichiro's grounder, I about lost whatever hope still remained. That was it. That was the play that sealed the deal.

And, this time, it was Russell Branyan who provided the heroics. Branyan put his patented uppercut on a 1-0 Bobby Seay slider and launched an off-the-bat bomb beyond Guti's Graveyard in right-center, a towering blast that caught Dave Sims by surprise and caused Detroit's color guy to chuckle in resignation. For the second time in three starts, offensive theatrics made Felix eligible for a win after coming out of the game, and after a comfortable inning by Mark Lowe and David Aardsma's easiest save of the year, we were left to reflect on just the latest Mariner effort to stave off what has so often felt inevitable. Sure, the Royals did us no favors by blowing a big late lead, but somehow, at least as far as I'm concerned, that doesn't harsh my buzz, because as Hendu would say, the M's just pulled one out of the ol' magician's basket. I don't know how many times this season I've prepared myself to wave the white flag, but this team just won't let me.

Is this a team of destiny? Not in the least. But this is a team that's good, fun, and stubbornly staying in the race. While I'm sure at some point we'll go back to feeling nervous again tomorrow, every night we're still in it is a night I go to bed happy, and for each and every one of these I've learned to be thankful. Being on the edge isn't all bad. Here's to taking this one game at a time. Focus on every individual step and you might be surprised how far you can go.

Or, hey, Washburn could suck tomorrow and we could give up by noon. What am I, psychic?

When I got home from work and saw Felix's pitch count through four, I thought he'd be lucky to get deep into the sixth. A 28-pitch third did a number on his line, and I was concerned that, not only would we have to come back, but we'd also have to rely on the bullpen to keep things close. That's a big part of what made the middle innings feel so lousy. But then Felix switched on his internal efficiency machine, put his head down, and barreled through another three frames. In the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, Felix threw a combined 34 pitches, facing ten batters and allowing only a double by Miguel Cabrera. What once looked like a potential brief effort turned into Felix's ninth consecutive start of 7+ innings. No sweat.

It really is incredible to me just how well Felix has come together. Let's set aside the fact that he still throws too many fastballs to left-handed hitters. Whatever. He's not perfect. But he's learned to control his heater, he misses bats, he throws all of his pitches, he keeps the ball on the ground, and he's a workhorse. On that last point, today was the 13th consecutive start in which Felix exceeded 100 pitches. Over those 13 starts, he's allowed 23 runs in 95.2 innings, walking 25 and striking out 90. He's just so damn good, and he's so damn good at everything. All the frustration, all the complaints, all the bad words - it's all been worth it to see Felix take his game to this level. This is what we wanted. And it's every bit as heavenly as we thought.

Another 16 swinging strikes today, by the way. It's always funny to me when lineups do pitchers the inconvenience of missing too often to allow for efficiency. 16 swinging strikes and two-thirds strikes overall. I really and truly don't know how I'm going to respond if and when the King eventually loses again. Tim Lincecum allowed four runs in five innings and lost tonight to Atlanta, and the damndest thing is that I can't even imagine that happening to Felix.

We had two hits.

After Branyan's home run, the camera cut to the Mariner dugout, where we saw Felix take a water cup and stomp it on the ground. I'd love to know what that was all about, because the whole thing seemed somewhat symbolic.

So I think most of us supported the Endy Chavez acquisition and the decision to give him a lot of playing time. Still, remember how often people used to complain about his bat? Notice how there haven't been many bat-related complaints about Ryan Langerhans? Through 62 plate appearances, Langerhans has hit .235/.349/.412, and - in case this was flying under your radar - he's drawn ten walks. Ten walks ties him with Yuniesky Betancourt in one-fourth the playing time. When you have a guy who can do that with the stick and then also do an admirable job playing center or a corner...Langerhans was never sold as a long-term addition, and even now no one's really talking about him as part of anything but the 2009 stretch run, but with a couple years left of team control, he's as good an option as anyone to keep around as a fourth OF behind Michael Saunders. To this day I can't believe we got him for nothing. No matter how much I say about Langerhans, I feel like I still need to say more. Is that weird?

David Aardsma might've looked the best he's looked all season. He only needed 11 pitches to pick up a pop and two strikeouts, and the 82% strike rate was his second-best on the year. He was both efficient and difficult to hit, as Anderson and Inge each whiffed on three pitches. Cherish this appearance, for seldom does Aardsma go a game without causing an entire fan base to nervously fidget with a pencil. Aardsma has a weird way of dominating. Observe the following two statistics:

O-Swing%: 132nd out of 140 relievers with 30+ innings
Z-Contact%: 7th out of 140

David Aardsma doesn't get a lot of hitters to go fishing. Only seven qualified relievers have done it less. But he makes up for that by being one of the most unhittable relievers in baseball when he throws in the zone. I can't necessarily explain why that is, considering Mark Lowe throws really hard too and doesn't generate nearly as many swinging strikes with his fastball, but just because I don't know the Why doesn't invalidate the What, and David Aardsma's strikes have clearly just been really really tough. That's neat. Also neat is that he threw Brandon Inge a couple sliders. That probably sucked.

Griffey went 0-4 and his season OPS is down to .705. Larry Stone touched on this in the morning, and you should all go read his blog post if you haven't already, but you have to wonder how much longer the M's will put up with having Junior come more and more undone in the cleanup slot. Not that we're overflowing with desirable alternatives, but when Griffey's not hitting, it does us no good to give him more at bats. This is the delicate situation that so many people feared when Griffey first agreed to come back. What do you do when you can't bench an underperforming bat in the middle of a playoff race? I'm not sure how Wakamatsu ever gets any sleep. This whole situation would be made more navigable by Griffey heating up or, less awesomely, the Mariners falling apart.

Remember - 10:05am start time tomorrow.

First Half In Review: Mariners Go Driving

Jeff — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:56:45 -0000

The Mariner players' first half performances as things that can happen to you in the car.

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David Aardsma: somebody texts you a happy score update of a big game, the beginning of which you have to miss because your boss made you work late and you've had it with these stupid East Coast start times.

Wladimir Balentien: somebody texts you a sad score update of said game.

Miguel Batista: somebody texts you a score update of the game, but when you reach into your pocket to see if it's happy or sad, a police officer drives by, sees you, pulls you over, and writes you a ticket.

Erik Bedard: the air conditioner keeps shutting off every few minutes, and while it always manages to fix itself, you wish it would just turn on and stay on because it's a hundred degrees outside and you don't want to roll down the window.

Adrian Beltre: you use the same six-hour permit on your dashboard to park downtown four nights in a row. On the fifth night, you get caught and your car is towed.

Yuniesky Betancourt: the cop that pulled you over for texting while driving hands you the ticket then punches you in the face for being such a sad little fairy.

Russell Branyan: drive-in movie with the prom queen who didn't win because of her intellect. And the movie is Braveheart or something.

Ronny :(edeno: sometime during the night a cat climbs up and dies in your engine.

Endy Chavez: you clean your window, but the wiper fluid leaves some messy streaks and when you try to make those go away you run out of liquid.

Ken Griffey Jr: every time you turn on your vent or air conditioner, it introduces a little tolerable but annoying constant static to your iPod playback.

Franklin Gutierrez: you're driving down a desert freeway and you see a hitchhiker and even though you don't usually do things like this you decide to pull over and pick him up and the hitchhiker is Mitch Hedberg who's alive somehow and vows to repay you with hours of comedy.

Felix Hernandez: reaching for some change to pay for your drive-through coffee, you open up the container you keep under the seat and find $200 in cash that you got from an ATM, stored away, and forgot about.

Chris Jakubauskas: no matter how many times you adjust the rear-view mirror, it keeps slipping out of position and giving you a view of the back seat. But you just re-upholstered the back seat and it looks nice, so that's something.

Kenji Johjima: the switch to electronically move your seat forward and back is broken, so you have to move it yourself with that lever that's by the floor that got all sticky when you dropped that one soda.

Rob Johnson: the cupholder is too wide and too shallow, so every time you drive with a drink you have to lean forward a little and awkwardly position yourself so that you can hold it in place.

Shawn Kelley: you get into the car just in time to hear your favorite radio station kick off an hour block of BRMC.

Ryan Langerhans: during the hour block the DJ mentions that BRMC will be coming to town on Friday with Maximo Park as the opener.

Jose Lopez: leaving work to drive home, you notice that the gas light is on, but you decide, what the hell, I'm gonna go for it.

Mark Lowe: you're driving around with a friend and you mention to her "hey you know what song I heard this morning that's really annoying? Lights by Journey. I fucking hate that song" and your friend nods and twenty seconds later she starts to sing Lights by Journey.

Brandon Morrow: on a six-hour nighttime drive through the plains to meet up with friends at the cabin in the morning, the car's GPS breaks and you lose all sense of direction.

Garrett Olson: you drive home and nothing happens.

Carlos Silva: you're driving around a lonely stretch of highway when your car starts to smell funny, and it breaks down just as you're crossing the train tracks, and then the railroad barriers sound off and lower themselves, and then your doors jam and won't open, and OH MY GOD THERE'S A COBRA IN THE GLOVE COMPARTMENT

Ichiro Suzuki: you bring dinner home to have a pleasant in-house date night with your significant other and your car smells like fresh pizza and mozzarella sticks for a week.

Mike Sweeney: lost in an unfamiliar neighborhood, you pull over and get very bad directions from a very nice man.

Jason Vargas: In-n-Out accidentally gives you an extra double-double free of charge.

Jarrod Washburn: getting an oil change and buying new tires improves your car's performance by a couple mpg.

Sean White: already running late, you spill scalding hot coffee in your lap and drive all the way to work in blinding discomfort.

Assorted others: you're wasted but not fit to drive home so you recline the seat and fall asleep.

First Half In Review: Passing Out The Grades (Position Players)

Jeff — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 19:40:40 -0000

These posts are always boring. You probably shouldn't even read them.

Note that all grades are subjective as I'm pretty much going off the top of my head and not applying any sort of scientific equation. Why? Because report cards like these are meaningless. Onward!

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Wladimir Balentien: F. People will argue that Wlad wasn't given enough of an opportunity, but the only thing he did to deserve one was be born in the mid-80s. Other than that, he sucked. Didn't walk, didn't make contact, didn't hit for power. For better or worse, he's finished here.

Adrian Beltre: C+. Called it quits just as he was getting hot at the plate. Didn't hit for nearly enough power, which caused our lineup great distress, but his defense was so damn good that he was an overall asset and I can't wait to get him back.

Yuniesky Betancourt: F. Some people used to say that Yuni had a lot of potential to go from being good to great. Other people used to say that he was already close to his ceiling and unlikely to improve much further. Yuni defied both groups by getting worse at everything, and for his transgressions he's been given a sentence in the baseball equivalent of Pelican Bay.

Russell Branyan: A. So much more than we expected. If you're wondering why we're not hearing more from fans and the media about how the Mariners missed out by not re-signing Raul Ibanez, look no further than Russ.

Ronny :(edeno: F.On the plus side, the list of things Ronny hasn't done to hurt the team is longer than the list of things he has.

Endy Chavez: B-. Hit like expected, played defense like expected, lost a battle to Yuni's considerable mass as expected. Turns out there is such thing as too much range after all.

Ken Griffey Jr.: C-. The walks are nice, but it'd be great if he would hit a little bit. I'm giving him some bonus tickle points. I didn't think much of it at first, but then yesterday I saw a rattlesnake curled up in my backyard and I wanted to know if it was sleeping or dead but I couldn't muster the courage to poke it or even throw a rock near it to see if it would move, so Junior's more brave than I gave him credit for. On the other hand, my girlfriend poked the snake with a baseball bat and then took pictures of it from two feet away, so maybe Griffey's normal and I'm just a pussy.

Franklin Gutierrez: A. I can't decide if I want to buy home, away, or alternate.

Kenji Johjima: D. Listen up, Kenji. You either need to start hitting or collapse completely. I'm sick of this debate.

Rob Johnson: D. You too. Do the opposite of whatever Kenji does.

Ryan Langerhans: B. He hasn't been here too long, but already we've seen the walks, the gap power, the defense, and the strikeouts. The upside of Endy getting hurt is that we wound up with a better and younger player in his stead. Saunders is playing well again, so I don't know how much more Langerhans we're going to get to see, but he's a way better player than he's been given credit for.

Jose Lopez: B-. The defense is subpar, but if you regress his BABIP to something more reasonable, it turns out he's pretty decent. Not my favorite player, but he's done a good job of answering questions regarding the sustainability of his 2008-level offense.

Ichiro Suzuki: A. A for Amazing!

Mike Sweeney: D-. I'm convinced that Sweeney cares more about this team than the coaches do. I'm always suspicious of people who make such a good first impression. What are you hiding, Mike?

Assorted Others: Irrelevant. I love that Josh Wilson is getting a Major League paycheck to run sometimes. I remember there was an article in SI a few years back where Todd Pratt said he had the easiest job in baseball. Suck it, Todd.

Endy Chavez Out For Remainder of Season

Matt Buggenhagen — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:19:36 -0000

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Seattle Mariners outfielder Endy Chavez will miss the remainder of the 2009 season, and possibly the beginning of spring training after destroying both ligaments and cartilage in his right knee.

Team physician Dr. Edward Khalfayan said the likely recovery time for Chavez following surgery will be about nine months to one year.

Seattle placed Chavez on the 60-day disabled list and added infield Josh Wilson to the 25-man roster.

Chavez suffered the injury Friday night while charging a shallow pop fly in left field where he collided with shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. Both players smashed their knees violently, subsequently shattering Chavez right knee.

Chavez was playing relatively well for the Mariners this season batting .273 with 2 homers and 13 RBI, and nine stolen bases.

According to Mariners manager Dan Wakamatsu, the team will give outfielder Wladimir Balentein another opportunity to be the teams starting left fielder. Balentein has struggled this year batting .223 with one homer and six RBIs in 40 games.

"We've given him a couple of opportunities this year to see if he's going to be the player we think he can be," Wakamatsu said of Balentien. "If not then we'll have to make some changes and address that."

The Mariners who today sit at an even .500 (34-34) remain 3 ½ games behind the AL west leading Texas Rangers. It remains to be seen whether the Mariners will be buyers or sellers come the July 31 deadline, but should they choose to be buyers they most certainly will be looking for a left fielder to replace Chavez.

Some possible options for the Mariners include Oakland A's outfielder Matt Holliday or Baltimore Orioles outfielder Luke Scott.