SB Nation - Tom Glavine

What Have We Learned? A Brief History of a Non-Dynasty, Part 1

Mark Himmelstein — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 12:22:12 -0000

More photos » by KATHY WILLENS - AP

First things first, allow me to (re)introduce myself. Many of you, grizzled Amazin' Avenue vets that may be, are probably thinking "Who the hell is Mark Himmelstein?" Well, Mark Himmelstein is me, formerly known around these parts as Meddler. Eric Simon and co. have been generous enough to have me join the site's wonderful team of writers. I'm honored, and look forward to lamenting, and maybe one day even celebrating (please?), with the greatest community of Mets fans there is.

Just three short years ago, if you asked a Mets fan how they thought this team would be remembered once the decade was over, you probably would have heard words like "accomplishment," "chemistry," "dominance," and even "championship," without a hint of irony. After a 2006 season that included 96 wins and a trip to the NLCS, it was a success that seemed destined to go on forever. It didn't. And though for the next two seasons the team would continue to be better than most Major League Baseball teams, they would stay closer to the average than to the elite. This relative mediocrity made the process feel more like a tease than the triumph that was expected, despite the relative level of success. Now, after a 2009 season lost to plenty of bad luck and at least as many bad decisions, there aren't many straws left to grasp at. What went so wrong? Everything seemed to be lined up so nicely for a sustained run at success, even a shot at a dynasty. Two of the best young players in the game had just shot up through the farm system and the organization had the financial resources to match any other non-Yankee club in the league. Looking back on the events of the last half-decade, things clearly have not worked out as hoped.

The Mets began the Aughties with a bang. They made it all the way to first World Series since Y2K had officially not happened. Though they would flounder through the rest of the early part of the decade, it wasn't long before hope would rear its head again. There was some optimism brewing below the major league franchise. Finally, some talent coming up through the homegrown ranks. A young shorstop named Jose Reyes reached the majors the day before his 20th birthday and dazzled crowds with a stunning array of tools. Meanwhile, a third baseman from the 2001 draft class was starting to garner lots of attention in the upper levels of the minor leagues. In 2004, David Wright joined Jose Reyes on the major league roster, and it soon became clear that the two were destined to be the face of any and all efforts to revitalize a broken franchise.

2005 - The Beginning

Enter Omar Minaya. Taking over the General Manager position, Omar brought lots of promises to the table. Youth, athleticism, an "old school" mentality, and a willingness to aggressively shift the organization's financial weight around on the open market. Right away, he brought in one of the best pitchers in the game and one of the best outfielders the free agent market had seen in a long time: Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Though the overhaul seemed as yet incomplete by the end of the 2005 season, the signs were encouraging. Here's a rundown of the final product (The less commonly referenced stats are linked to their glossaries):

Making Runs Happen

PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR%	HR/FB	XBH%	BB%	SO%	SB	CS	bRAA	RS
6146	.258	.322	.416	.334	2.8%	10.7%	7.9%	7.9%	17.5%	153	40	-7.0	722

Making Runs Not Happen

BF	ERA	FIP	tRA (SP)	tRA (RP)	SO%	BB%	HR%	pRAA	DE	PADE	UZR	RA
6121	3.77	4.00	4.27	4.22	16.5%	8.0%	2.2%	52.1	.701	1.50	-24.6	648

Miscellaneous Facts and Musings

The team run differential was +74. The 83-79 record may have actually been an underachievement for this team.
Pedro Martinez accounted for 50.9 of the 52.1 pRAA. The rest of the rotation produced just 1.1 pRAA, essentially average. His tRA was a stellar 2.43. It was arguably best single season pitching performance the Mets got all decade.
Tom Glavine also had his best season in a Mets uniform with a 4.36 tRA and 5.2 pRAA. After Tommy and Petey, the rest of the rotation was below average, producing a combined -4.1 pRAA, which is perfectly acceptable when your top two starters combine for 57.3 pRAA.
Only eight different starting pitchers were used all season, and four threw at least 150 innings. Ah, the good old days.
David Wright lead the team in wOBA at .410. The second best mark on the team, .384, was not Carlos Beltran, Mike Piazza, Jose Reyes, or Cliff Floyd. That leaves _________________.
Though Mike Piazza appeared to be fading away by posting just a .343 wOBA, Cliff Floyd had one of the best years of his career with a .381 mark of his own.
Fun fact: the offense had exactly the same number of walks as extra base hits: 486.
Its curious how much the PADE and UZR methods disagree on the team-wide defense.

Though the starting pitching was excellent, the rest of the team still needed work. Carlos Beltran failed to live up to expectations in his first season in Flushing, and his collision with Mike Cameron in the outfield left the offense without one of its more productive players for a good portion of the season. Still, the offense, bullpen, and defense were all within earshot of average, and the starting pitching, mostly thanks to Pedro Martinez's stellar year, was superb.

2006 - Destiny or Illusion?

Just like in 2005, Omar brought in two new marquee names for the 2006 season. Though the faded star of Mike Piazza had finally physically departed, the additions of Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner appeared to be the perfect way to balance a roster with potential for greatness. Delgado was a force of run creation at the time, coming off an excellent year with the with the Marlins after his shift to the Senior Circuit. Billy Wagner had the fastball to dominate the late innings and high leverage situations, plus the attitude to win over the infamously ravenous New York Media. The pair seemed to be a perfect way to correct two of the team's biggest weaknesses the previous season.

Making Runs Happen

PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR%	HR/FB	XBH%	BB%	SO%	SB	CS	bRAA	RS
6291	.264	.334	.445	.348	3.2%	11.8%	9.0%	8.7%	17.0%	146	35	39.0	834

Making Runs Not Happen

BF	ERA	FIP	tRA (SP)	tRA (RP)	SO%	BB%	HR%	pRAA	DE	PADE	UZR	RA
6240	4.16	4.37	5.39	3.66	18.6%	8.4%	2.9%	20.9	.703	2.34	9.8	731

Miscellaneous Facts and Musings

The team run differential was +103. They were very much for real.
The offense was absolutely stellar, lead by Carlos Beltran's ridiculous .441 wOBA, which even more incredibly was held down by a .262 BABIP.
The second highest wOBA among Mets outfielders wasn't produced by Xavier Nady, Shawn Green, or Cliff Floyd. It was Endy Chavez's .359. Endy added to that a 12.7 UZR in just 814.2 defensive innings, making him a 2.5 WAR player.
Carlos Delgado was as advertised, his .389 wOBA was third on the team behind Beltran and Wright.
The surprise of the year was easily Jose Valentin, who managed a .360 wOBA and 9.2 UZR in 94 games at second base, a position he hadn't played since 1994, and had only played 19 games at in his major league career. His 3.1 WAR made him the fifth most valuable player on the team.
Among players with at least as many as PA's as Xavier Nady's 292, there were eight wOBA's greater than .350: Beltran, Wright (.394), Delgado, Reyes (.377), Valentin, Chavez, Nady (.358), and Lo Duca (.354)
The pRAA splits were 53.7 for the bullpen and -32.8 for the rotation. The bullpen supplanted Pedro Martinez as the team's pitching strength, and there wasn't all that much else to talk about in a positive light.
13 different pitchers started games. Only four provided positive pRAA figures. Pedro Martinez still lead the team at 10.3, despite missing most of the second half. The other three were Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, and Brian Bannister, none of whom pitched the full year either, at least not for the Mets.
Like Delgado, Billy Wagner was also as advertised, posting a 2.65 tRA, tied for the team lead among qualified relievers with Chad Bradford.
Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, and Duaner Sanchez also each had sub-4.00 tRA's in at least 50 innings apiece.
The team's PADE and UZR match up much better in 2006 than 2005. They were a quality defensive squad.

This was a team that got it done in exactly the way the 2005 version didn't, as well as failed in the one area that the 2005 version was superior. Carlos Beltran emerged as the player the Mets thought they were buying and then some, while Jose Reyes finally grew into the player Mets fans had been hanging their dreams on for years. Unfortunately, once Pedro Martinez's health began to fail him, the lack of pitching depth was brutally exposed. It was the one obvious weakness on an otherwise incredibly complete team. And despite the playoff push coming to a crashing halt in Game 7 of the NLCS, there was even some hope for life after Pedro. The second half arrival of John Maine and clutchy playoff performance of Oliver Perez promised to give the future of the Mets rotation a new, younger look, and the beginnings of the depth they so lacked in 2006.

2007 - Oh So Close

The playoffs seemed like the natural end to the 2007 season even before it began. The everyday unit that carried the 2006 team was still largely intact, and the previous year's high leverage relief specialists all returned as well. However, the trademark splash Omar Minaya had become known for in his first two years on the job was strangely absent. This was a bold decision, considering Pedro Martinez, the team's most effective pitcher over the last two years, was slated to miss the majority of the season recovering from surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. And some of the moves that were made were eyebrow raisers. Scott Schoeneweis and Guillermo Mota were given multi-year deals based on strong, but very short performances from the end of 2006, while major contributors Chad Bradford and Darren Oliver were allowed to walk away in Free Agency. Still, the roster construction was very similar to the team with a +103 run differential the previous year. How hard could a second straight NL East crown be?

Making Runs Happen

PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR%	HR/FB	XBH%	BB%	SO%	SB	CS	bRAA	RS
6343	.275	.342	.432	.344	2.8%	11.1%	7.9%	8.7%	15.5%	200	46	42.0	804

Making Runs Not Happen

BF	ERA	FIP	tRA (SP)	tRA (RP)	SO%	BB%	HR%	pRAA	DE	PADE	UZR	RA
6293	4.27	4.46	4.93	4.71	18.0%	9.1%	2.6%	-6.4	.701	1.51	6.8	750

Miscellaneous Facts and Musings

The team run differential was +54 runs. We'll get back to this in a bit.
Though it functioned differently, the offensive output was very similar in 2007 to its 2006 predecessor. Less power, fewer strikeouts, a more aggressive running game, and a slightly lower league average wOBA actually meant their bRAA improved by three runs.
David Wright lead the team in wOBA with a .422 mark. Moises Alou's .398 was second.
Nine different players had a wOBA of .345 or higher in at least 200 PA: Wright, Alou, Carlos Beltran (.377), Damian Easley (.367), Luis Castillo (.361), Lastings Milledge (.357), Shawn Green (.351), Jose Reyes (.349), and Ruben Gotay (.345).
The big offensive disappointment was Carlos Delgado, whose wOBA fell to .342.
Though the team lacked a dominant starting pitcher and the rotation as a whole only improved slightly from 2006, they did have three guys who contributed more than any starter from the year before. Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Orlando Hernandez all produced pRAA figures greater than Pedro's 2006 output of 10.3. This really says more about the 2006 group than the 2007 one.
Oliver Perez's 4.19 tRA and 16.1 pRAA lead the starting staff in both categories. I'll say that again. Oliver Perez once lead a pitching staff in something meaningful.
Unfortunately, the 2007 bullpen couldn't do what the 2006 version did to make up for the lack of quality in the rotation. Wagner was once again excellent, but beyond him, no other reliever managed a sub-4.00 tRA in at least 60 innings. The only other two relievers who were above average were Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano, with 4.45 and 4.13 tRA's, respectively.
Believe it or not, the second and third best tRA's among relievers with at least 20 IP were from Jorge Sosa (3.74) and Ambiorix Burgos (3.81), but neither threw enough relief innings to have a huge impact.
Though the defense wasn't quite as good as the previous year, PADE and UZR both agree that it was still pretty solid.

Of course, we all know how this season ended, with one of the greatest collapses in regular season baseball history, and one of the greatest comebacks, care of the Philadelphia Phillies. Because it went down in this way, and because the Mets did indeed control the NL East for much of the 2007 season, many fans were still willing to write off the failure as the aberration to the rule that was 2006. But there was one particularly troubling statistical sign: The +54 run differential. Looking back at 2005, the +74 run differential yielded an 83-79 record. Did the Mets actually over-perform in 2007? Using the Pythagenpat method developed by David Smyth and Patriot, we can project that the 2005 team should have had about a .550 winning percentage, approximately 89 wins, and the 2007 team a .533 winning percentage, about 86 wins, so perhaps they did. Still, the high powered offense was intact even without superior production from Carlos Delgado or the surprise contributions from Jose Valentin, and Omar had found the back half a rotation that his team lacked in 2006. Now all they needed was a front.....right?

In Part 2: 2008, 2009, and beyond

Mets Decade Rankings: Innings Pitched

Eric Simon — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:40:31 -0000

Num	Player	IP	From Year	To Year
1	Tom Glavine	1005.1	2003	2007
2	Steve Trachsel	956.1	2001	2006
3	Al Leiter	954	2000	2004
4	John Maine	502.1	2006	2009
5	Pedro Martinez	486.2	2005	2008
6	Mike Pelfrey	479	2006	2009
7	Oliver Perez	473.2	2006	2009
8	Aaron Heilman	450.1	2003	2008
9	Johan Santana	401	2008	2009
10	Jae Weong Seo	397.1	2002	2005

Jae Seo! Number ten!

Don't forget to tell your grandkids that the Mets' two most prolific pitchers of the aughts were Tom Glavine and Steve Trachsel. Glavine is almost universally reviled by Mets' fans, though he actually had a pretty decent stretch with the Mets that was unfortunately bookended by his two worst starts. He would also show up his fielders on occasion and at times seemed to drift into clock-punching mode.

Trachsel was dubbed the "Human Rain Delay", and while he was usually a chore to watch on the mound -- and though he utterly crapped the proverbial bed in Game 3 of the 2006 NLCS -- he was a useful pitcher for a number of years, consistently outperforming his FIP. Not a great pitcher by any stretch, but he gets credit for showing up and not being terrible.

Nationals have interest in Jason Marquis

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:24:54 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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MLB.com's Bill Ladson is reporting that the Nationals are interested in free agent pitcher Jason Marquis and the interest is believed to be mutual. Marquis, who went 15-13 last season with a 4.04 ERA, likes the moves the Nationals have already made this season and wants to be apart of turning things around in D.C.

"I want to play for a team that is headed in the right direction and making the moves that is necessary to get themselves back to being a winning organization," Marquis told MLB.com

Marquis benefitted from being around veterans Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux from his time in Atlanta and Chicago, and passed on what he learned to pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Ubaldo Jimenez, who had success in Colorado in 2009.

The Nationals core of young pitching talent would only benefit from a veteran presence in the rotation, and while Marquis may not be a number one type starter, he is played for winning organizations every where he's gone and could offer a lot of insight to the Nationals' staff, particularly 2009 first round picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen.

Marquis, 31, could command a two to three year deal worth 8-10 million dollars annually.

Tom Glavine Talks on Sirius XM Radio

gondeee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:28:18 -0000

More photos » by Paul Abell - AP

It seems like some of the bitterness of the Braves' decision to cut Tom Glavine (evident in this picture from June 5th of this year) has finally left the future Hall of Fame pitcher.

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I was sent this transcript by the media guy over at Sirius XM Radio's MLB Home Plate show. I thought it had some good quotes from Tom Glavine... he usually has good quotes when he's asked questions:

Yesterday, Nov. 19, on ‘SIRIUS XM’s MLB Home Plate’ channel, hosts Seth Everett and Jim Duquette spoke with Tom Glavine about his future plans and Bobby Cox’s pending retirement.

Host/Seth Everett: "Tell us about the way your season came to a close and what your thought process is as we hit November. Free agency signing period starts tomorrow. What is your attitude in terms of what you think your future is?"

Tom Glavine: "I honestly don’t know. I didn't like the way my season ended last year. It has been well talked about and well documented. Obviously I wasn't happy about it and I thought it should have gone differently than it did but it didn't. And that’s something on a personal level that I have to deal with and I have dealt with. I’m okay with it. I’m okay with it now. I’ve moved on. I don't know what the next chapter of life is for me. I'm not closing the door on playing next year but I really don't see myself at this point in time playing. I mean, a lot of things would have to change. I don't know what I am going to do next. Assuming I don't play, I don't know if it is going to be to get into the broadcasting side of the game or trying to get into a front office type situation with somebody and start learning that side of the game. I don't know. I see myself staying around the game a little bit that's for sure, but I’m not quite sure exactly what it is that I want to do. I've been home since June of last year and it’s actually been kinda nice being home, hanging out with my boys, and being a dad so I don't know how soon I want to get away from doing that."

Host/Jim Duquette: "Bobby Cox has announced that he is going to manage his last year in 2010. It’s hard to imagine him not being in that dugout beyond 2010. Your thoughts on his pending retirement?"

Glavine: "There are certain guys that you just don't ever expect not to see in that uniform or in that dugout anymore and Bobby is one of those guys. You look at the Braves and for so many years they had the stability of myself, and Smoltzy, and Maddux, and Chipper Jones now and all those guys you kind of knew from year to year were going to be there and slowly but surely, everybody has gone by the wayside. Bobby has kind of been the lasting guy. And I think a lot of people thought they would have to tear the uniform off him to get him out of the dugout. That'll be extremely strange for a lot of people when that day comes to look over there and not see Bobby yelling at the umpires anymore or cheering the guys on in the dugout. It's going to be a big adjustment, I think, for everyone involved with the organization but sooner or later you have to make those changes. I feel bad for the guy who has to come in after him because you know as much as everyone talks about, ‘Oh, he’s not filling Bobby's shoes’, that's exactly what everybody’s going to think he's doing and its going to be a tough assignment for whoever comes in after him."

SIRIUS XM’s MLB Home Plate channel is available to listeners nationwide on XM channel 175 and SIRIUS channel 210 with the "Best of XM" package.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Tommy Hanson

cbwilk — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:15:19 -0000

After dominating the Arizona Fall League in 2008, becoming the first pitcher in the league's history to win the MVP award, Thomas J. Hanson continued to excel in the Atlanta Braves' 2009 Spring Training, with a win and no losses in 5 games (3 starts), while striking out 18 in 17.2 innings. The Braves felt he needed more seasoning though, and optioned him to AAA Gwinnett, where he was dominant, as well with 3 wins and 3 losses in 11 starts, compiling a 1.49 ERA, 1.046 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 66.1 innings, good for 12.2 per 9 innings.

Tom Glavine was supposed to be the Braves' fifth starter in 2009, but nagging injuries prevented him from ever pitching for Atlanta this season, and the Braves legend and future Hall of Famer was released June 3rd, just as he was, according to him, ready to assume his role in the Braves rotation. This highly unpopular move coincided with Hanson's additon to the roster, just two days later, and it turned out to be one of Frank Wren's most savvy decisions of the season.

Hanson came out of the gate pitching like an ace, collecting 4 wins in his 5 June starts, with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP while striking out 18 in 29 innings. While he had a losing record in July, 1-2, and his ERA jumped over a run, to 3.94, his strikeout rate increased, from 5.6 per 9 innings to 6.5 and his walks dramatically decreased, from 17 in 29 innings to just 9 in 32 innings, leading to a drop in his WHIP, down to 1.25. These trends continued over the rest of his season, with his ERA dipping back below 3 for August and September as well, leading to a final line that saw him win 11 games, lose 4, compile an ERA of 2.89, a WHIP of 1.18, along with 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings.

In all, it was a stellar rookie season for Hanson, one which should garner him attention in National League Rookie of the Year voting, if not the award itself. On his own team, he had the third lowest ERA among the regular starters, just behind Javy Vazquez's 2.87 ERA, as well as the third most innings per start, at just over 6 per, behind Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens. Hanson had the second lowest WHIP of the starters, just behind Vazquez, tied with Vazquez for the fewest hits per 9 innings allowed, 7.4, and was second, behind Vazquez, in strikeouts per 9 innings, 8.2, and strikeouts per walk, 2.52.

Hanson showed improvement in each of his 4 Minor League seasons, including his most dominant performance in the early part of this season with Gwinnett. His ability to step seamlessly into Atlanta's rotation as a 22 year old and improve throughout the year indicate that he is well on his way to becoming one of the better pitchers in the National Leauge. While there are many hurdles for him to overcome on that quest, including allowing fewer hits and walks, while striking out more batters, he'll enter 2010 as a 23 year old, firmly entrenched in the Atlanta rotation, and just beginning to show his seemingly limitless ability.

How Did They Do That?

dajafi — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:02:53 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Ryan Madson: last man standing of the Phillies' 2008 pitching stalwarts. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Not quite 24 hours after the Phillies saw their season come to an end one day and two wins before we hoped it would, my disappointment at the conclusion is starting to give way to something like amazement that they got as close as they did. Of arguably the six most important Phillies pitchers from the 2008 championship run--starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer, and relievers Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero--a stunning five saw their contributions plummet in the season that just ended.

By contrast, consider the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants: the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990s. The world champion 1995 Braves boasted a rotation led by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who combined for 47 wins and 601 innings that season. Their bullpen was anchored by closer Mark Wohlers (204 ERA+) and setup men Greg McMichael (153) and Brad Clontz (117). The '96 Braves, who also lost their repeat bid to the Yankees in six games, had a pitching staff led by... Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Wohlers, McMichael and Clontz. The three starters combined for 54 wins and an amazing 724 innings; Wohlers (ERA+ 145) and McMichael (136) were strong again, though Clontz (77) was much less effective. To sum up, the top five pitchers powered the Atlanta pennant-winners in both years.

Which brings us to the 2008-2009 Phillies.

In '08, Hamels, Myers and Moyer combined for 40 wins and 613.2 innings in the regular season (plus 6 wins and 65.2 innings through the three rounds of the playoffs). Lidge pitched to a superlative ERA+ of 225; Madson (144) and Romero (160) were great as well, and came up even bigger in the playoffs. A year later, Hamels went from "Darth Vader in spikes," as the Braves broadcasters (in perhaps the sole contribution to humankind) once dubbed him, to a young pitcher struggling with command and composure. Myers looked like he might challenge Bert Blyleven's single season home run record through a middling month and a half, then got hurt. Moyer pitched his way out of the rotation, remade himself as a surprisingly effective long reliever, then suffered a season-ending injury in September. They combined for 26 wins and 426.1 innings during the season, and Hamels added another victory in October. Lidge... well, you know about Lidge: his 2009 campaign was arguably the worst any closer has ever suffered through. His ERA+ was *59*. That's not a misprint. Romero missed the first fifty games of the season with a suspension for taking illegal supplements, briefly returned and was middling, then got hurt and missed the last month plus the playoffs. Only Madson stood tall again, with an ERA+ of 131. They were the anti-Braves.

That the Phils came within two wins of raising another championship banner anyway has to be credited mostly to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., whose late July trade for Cliff Lee and bargain-price signing of Pedro Martinez saved the rotation and who gave the bullpen a crucial boost in the person of Chan Ho Park. Manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee, who got great work from J.A. Happ and small but important contributions from the likes of Antonio Bastardo, Rodrigo Lopez, Tyler Walker and Kyle Kendrick over the course of the year, deserve kudos as well.

It's unclear what, if anything, this means for the future. Certainly there's every reason to hope Hamels will return to form, and Lidge and Romero seem decent bets to rebound from their miserable 2009 campaigns even if neither recaptures the heights of '08. Myers is a free agent who might or might not be back; Moyer will turn 47 this month and will be attempting to rebound from a fairly severe injury. But if you'd tried to sell the story eight months ago that the 2009 Phils would see five of their top six pitchers from the championship run essentially melt down, yet still win the pennant and take the World Series to six games, you likely would have had few believers.

Better to be lucky...

jonk — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:17:58 -0000

...than good. That is what somebody's mama always says, somewhere.

Burnett sure seemed like a beast last night. Unhittable to say the least. Sometimes perception matches up with reality; Burnett was unhittable. The problem is that he was walkable and the Phillies got screwed there. Burnett knew what he was getting and was Tom Glavine about it. He knew he didn't have to throw one pitch down the middle of the plate and he didn't. Fair or not, I'll post and you'll decide.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Not one pitch down the middle. Pretty amazing. But when you are given every call on the outside, why the heck would you throw the ball down the middle? 8 pitches on the outside and 2 on the inside tell the whole story. When he wasn't getting those calls, the Phils were flailing at thos pitches grounding out weakly. What is telling to me is that he got MORE called strikes outside the edge of the plate than he did on the inside on the left side of the plate (in the graph). 8 outside the zone, 6 inside the zone. I would be a bit happier if those numbers were reversed, but that is a terrible strikezone. The problem is that those pitches are unhittable but were kinda close, so nobody really notices.

Compare that to Pedro, who was SICK (in all senses of the word)!

via www.brooksbaseball.net

He got 4 outside calls, one pretty darn close too, but look at all those called strikes IN the zone. He didn't have to try to extend the zone out a bit, he was dropping everything inside the zone and the hitters couldn't do anything with it. Don't let the game results fool you, Pedro was dominant and Burnett, while certainly hitting his spots, was given an extra-wide plate by the ump.

I don't normally rail on the umps. I was fine with Howard's play since it was inconclusive in slow-motion replay (how can you expect an ump to go either way on that) and I am not really even that angry about Utley's DP (really it shouldn't have been close to make it questionable). I do care about a wide strikezone with a good pitcher on the mound. It's tough enough to hit the ball squarely when it is down the middle of the plate, now you have to try to hit it when it is a ball.

So, to recap...

Burnett = lucky; Pedro = good

Busting out in the Divisional Round: Alex Rodriguez and Jeff Bagwell

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 11:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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Story after story after story have been written in the past week about Alex Rodriguez' playoff redemption. For a player as maligned as Rodriguez, truly positive press can be hard to come by. After a season of high expectations for his team, the Yankee third baseman thriving outside of the spotlight- free agent signees Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia, the resurgent Derek Jeter and their new baseball palace have stolen headlines that used to belong to A-Rod. If the result of this relative lack of exposure is the success we've witnessed over the first few games of the playoffs, then maybe Rodriguez could use some of that $300 million contract to force the NY beat writers to focus on Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brett Gardner in 2010.

Besides the lessening of external pressure on the slugger, the lineup the Yankees have fielded this season is much stronger than those in playoff years past. Outside of 2004, his playoff performances have been well below his career averages. It's tough to judge a player based off of fewer than 35 AB, but it's the nature of the beast playing in New York, on baseball's biggest stage.

Jeff Bagwell never had to deal with the New York media, or the ire of the baseball public during his illustrious career. After four failed attempts to escape the first round the playoffs, Bagwell and the Astros finally managed to lay their collective demons to rest by beating the Atlanta Braves in the 2004 NLDS. Bags would see extended playoff ABs for the first time in his career, and he responded by posting a stupendous "triple-slash" of .318/.400/.682 in 22 ABs. No longer would he be forced to head into yet another off season coming off of tepid October performances.

Was there anything special about that October as compared to 1997, '98, '99 or 2001 (which in fairness was a solid, albeit short, postseason for Jeff)?

1997:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.305
1B	Bags	.428
2B	Craig	.410
3B	S. Berry/Spiers	.316/.404
SS	Bogar/Ricky	.315/.302
LF	Gonzo	.320
CF	Hidalgo	.373
RF	Abreu	.319

1998:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Ausmus	.318
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.406
3B	Berry	.387
SS	Gutierrez	.301
LF	Alou	.416
CF	Everett	.359
RF	Bell	.373

1999:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Eusebio	.320
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.368
3B	Cammy	.374
SS	Bogar	.294
LF	Javier	.374
CF	Everett	.416
RF	Bell	.296

Note: This season saw the likes of Daryle Ward (.336), Javier, and Matt Mieske (.333) start playoff games in the outfield. Yikes.

2001:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.270
1B	Bags	.408
2B	Craig	.364
3B	V. Castilla	.339
SS	J. Lugo	.303
LF	Alou	.397
CF	Hidalgo	.346
RF	Lance	.435

2004:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.271
1B	Bags	.364
2B	Kent	.369
3B	Ensberg	.321
SS	Everett	.313
LF	Craig	.349
CF	Beltran	.404
RF	Lance	.427

While the addition of Beltran and Kent in 2004 were huge additions, it wasn't as if the Astros became the '27 Yankees. In fact, this was Bagwell's worst season in his career (to that point), yet he had his best postseason ever. While A Rod's mates are clearly superior in 2009 than in seasons past, the same can't truly be said of Bags' bunch in 2004. Between his and Craig's declines, and the lowest output from 3B since 1997, this was a pretty good, but not superior lineup. What surprised me was that Jeff Kent, a power hitting second baseman throughout his career, posted Biggio-like numbers at second in 2004. Lance Berkman is great....like, "play for five more seasons and punch his ticket to Cooperstown" great.

If anything, I'd chalk up their 2004 NLCS appearance to not having to face Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Kevin Brown, and John Smoltz, and instead facing off against Jaret Wright, John Thomson, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton. Wait a second...Ortiz? Hampton? Weren't they on the....this season? Damn.

Braves Becoming Baltimore

gondeee — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:02:05 -0000

The Atlanta Braves have an ex-Baltimore General Manager in Frank Wren, and now we have an ex-Baltimore Scouting Director in newly promoted Tony DeMacio. DeMacio replaces Roy Clark, who left Atlanta for Washington (which is becoming the new Atlanta). Wren and DeMacio both started with the Orioles in 1999. Of course, Wren was forced to leave after one season, but DeMacio stayed on until 2004. I was looking over some of his drafts in Baltimore and they don't look pretty, including the Orioles 2000 draft in which no one from that class until the 32nd round made it to the majors.

He's also worked in some other poor drafting frachises like the Cubs and the Pirates, but he's also worked in the Clevland scouting department, which generally does a good job of drafting players.

He comes from the scouting ranks, originally with the Braves, and his biggest claim to fame is that he was credited with signing Tom Glavine in 1984 and Chipper Jones in 1990. He has been affiliated with a Major League baseball organization for the last 26 years, and at the 2008 Winter Meetings he was honored with the Scout of the Year award, which is given to those who have devoted at least a quater century to the scouting profession.

This seems like a decent choice, but more than that it symbolizes the continuing new direction that this franchise is taking. This selection is Frank Wren's selection. Yes, DeMacio has a history with the Braves that dates back to 1983, but there's no denying his connection with Wren in Baltimore. Yes, the Orioles had other problems which prevented them from succeeding, so maybe we shouldn't hold that against Wren, but the success of a draft is used to judge the quality of a scouting director, and DeMacio's years as the Orioles' scouting director are not impressive. One has to hope that will not follow him to Atlanta. The draft is one of the key components that maintain the Atlanta franchise, and an integral part of the organization's success.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 14:16:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

If you only read roughly a dozen blog posts about the Brewers today, make sure one of them is Miller Park Drunk's argument that the pitching staff wasn't as bad as you think, and Dave Bush might have been the key to the season.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while reconsidering your tuna melt strategies.

The Journal-Sentinel released their final grades for 2009's team and individual performances over the weekend, and as Miller Park Drunk predicted, they're a joke. Seth McClung also responded to his grade.

I'm not going to bother responding to any of the respective grades, because it's not worth the time. Instead, I'll point you to Wezen-ball's grades, which are both funnier and every bit as relevant.

Meanwhile, the Brewers could be close to announcing a deal with a new pitching coach, as Rick Peterson confirmed interest in the job over the weekend. (FanShot) He's been out of coaching for a year while he's worked with Dr. James Andrews, Al Leiter and Tom Glavine to develop a company devoted to assessing the biomechanics of little leaguers to prevent injury. This quote says volumes about what he might be looking to do in Milwaukee:

"I'm looking for a home that embraces this philosophy and wants to implement it throughout the organization," Peterson said.

Maybe I'm wrong and that's exactly what needs to be done. Certainly, if anyone is qualified to evaluate and adjust the mechanics of young pitchers, it's probably Peterson. With that said, the Brewers have a somewhat shaky track record of "adjusting" pitcher deliveries that ends with the opposite of the desired result: ineffectiveness and injury. So, Peterson's quote raised a red flag for me.

By the way, pitching is what doomed the 2009 Brewers, but Miller Park Drunk makes the argument that it wasn't the foregone conclusion that many argue it was.

Mark Attanasio issued an open letter to the fans over the weekend, reviewing the high points of 2009 and promising not to settle for the status quo in 2010. Regardless of how you feel about the 2009 Brewers and the effort that went into putting them together, I think this reminder of how far the Brewers have come is very important:

Only a few years ago, achieving a .500 record would have been acceptable, but posting 80 wins this year satisfied neither you nor the organization. This higher standard demonstrates how far we have come in raising our expectations and how much our performance has improved.

Casa de Machado has an open letter of their own regarding possible responses if the Brewers decide to trade Ryan Braun.

In the minors and winter leagues:

The list won't be available online until Wednesday, but Tom H. is reporting that Alcides Escobar will be sixth in Baseball America's rankings of the top 20 prospects in the Pacific Coast League this season. Mat Gamel will be 13th and Angel Salome will be 18th.
If you didn't stop by over the weekend, you might have missed my post sorting Brewer minor leaguers by position and MLE.
The Venezuelan Winter League opened play on Friday, and while MLB.com's stats page is still displaying last year's stats and the scoreboards also don't appear to work, I do have some box scores from yesterday. Adam Heether went 2-for-4 with a double and a home run in Caracas' 8-6 win over Aragua, and Hernan Iribarren batted leadoff and went 1-for-5 with a run scored in Lara's 7-5 loss to Magallanes. Iribarren also hit a home run over the weekend.

The Arizona Fall League opens this week, and I'm hoping there will be better stat tracking systems in place by then.

There's a strange symmetry in lumping a power ranking together with a tournament to determine who sucks the most:

Beyond the Box Score ranked the Brewers 21st in their final power rankings.
Brew City Sports has moved on to the second round in their tournament to determine 2009's worst Brewer.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Acquired Tony Abreu from the Dodgers as the PTBNL in the Jon Garland trade, and designated pitcher Bobby Korecky for assignment.
Marlins: Released pitchers Scott Proctor and Dave Davidson.
White Sox: Outfielder Dewayne Wise declined an outright assignment to AAA and is now a free agent.

A quick side note on the Abreu deal mentioned above: The Dodgers and D-Backs have had an agreement regarding Abreu for some time now, but the deal had to wait until this weekend because of a grievance Abreu had filed against the Dodgers regarding some service time lost while on the DL in 2007. If/when the Brewers decide to deal J.J. Hardy this offseason, they could run into a similar problem.

Apparently all managerial searches this offseason must include at least one bad candidate. Last week I mentioned that Ned Yost was being reported as a candidate in both Cleveland and Houston, and this week we have news that Bob Brenly might be a candidate in Washington.

Speaking of Houston, they're once again going to use an open interview process to select their next manager. This seems like a great PR move and I don't know why more teams don't do it this way.

Thanks to Beyond the Box Score for directing my attention to both of the following links:

The Biz of Baseball has an in-depth look at the financial windfall involved in making the playoffs, both short and long term.
3-D Baseball has an exhaustive look at FIP, and its uses and misuses.

The Twins and Cardinals have both been sent home from the postseason, but at least we still know they have a great personality.

On this day in 1982, Paul Molitor set a new World Series record by picking up five hits in Game 1 as the Brewers beat the Cardinals 10-0.

Happy birthday today to Casey McGehee, who turns 27, Jose Valentin, who turns 40, and Garth Iorg, the roving instructor who briefly served as the third base coach of the 2008 Brewers, who turns 55.

Oh, and maybe it's worked in the past, but when you're trying to fend off elimination, starting off the day with 12 strips of bacon and a Red Bull seems like a bad idea.

Drink up.