SB Nation - Damion Easley

The Brewer Advent Calendar #19: Craig Counsell

KLSnow — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 18:00:11 -0000

So today, it really is nineteen days until pitchers and catchers report to Maryvale. Behind door #19 we find...Craig Counsell!

via www.alaskabaseballleague.com

On top of two stints as a Brewer in his career, Craig Counsell appeared in four games for the Rockies between 1995 and 1997, 195 games for the Marlins between 1997 and 1999, and 664 as a Diamondback between 2000 and 2006, with one year spent as a Brewer in 2004.

If you're not seeing the significance, here it is: Counsell has played for three of the last four expansion teams. No one has ever played for all four, but sixteen players, including eight active players and one other 2009 Brewer, have played for three:

Player	D-Backs	Marlins	Rays	Rockies
Greg Colbrunn	1999-2002, 2004	1994-1996		1995, 1997
Craig Counsell	2000-2003, 2005-2006	1997-1999		1998
Damion Easley	2006	2004-2005	2003
Lenny Harris	1999-2000	2003-2005		1999
Livan Hernandez	2006-2007	1996-1999		2008
Matt Herges	2005	2006		2007-2008
Charles Johnson		1994-1998, 2001-2002	2005	2003-2004
Jorge Julio	2006	2007		2007
Joe Kennedy	2007		2001-2003	2004-2005
Byung-Hyun Kim	1999-2003	2007		2005-2007
Quinton McCracken	2002-2005		1998-2000	1995-1997
Dan Miceli		2000-2001	2006	2001, 2003, 2005
Mike Myers	2002-2003	1995		2000-2001
Vladimir Nunez	1998-1999	1999-2003		2004
Jason Smith	2007		2002-2003	2006
Bobby Witt	2001	1995	1999

Thanks to TheJay for the info. Active players are in bold. Am I the only one with the urge to trade Julio and Counsell to the Rays to complete the tetrad?

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:18:01 -0000

Here are some things to read while waiting for Monday's Mug.

So you may have heard that Ken Macha is the new manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Reaction from around the web:

In-Between Hops has some stats showing Macha's tendencies. The Cliff's Notes version: don't expect a lot of base stealing, pinch hitting or sac bunts. I'm ok with most of that. My question, though, is whether those stats are a function of Macha's management style or the environment in which he worked in Oakland.
Two-Fisted Slopper also uses the numbers to develop an expectation of what's to come.
The JS Blog has audio from the press conference.
If you like knowing what was said at press conferences but don't actually like to listen to things, Al also chronicled it for you.
Ken Rosenthal notes some problems Macha had with his veteran players in Oakland. The Brewers downplay it in this link.
View From Bernie's Chalet likes the contrast between Macha and Ned Yost.
The Brew Town Beat likes the move as well, but raises some questions about Macha's relationships and his aversion to small ball.

So now, the next question: what about Mike Maddux? Baseball Musings is reporting that Mike Maddux and Rick Peterson are both considering the jobs in Milwaukee and Texas, and the only question is who ends up where.

We're probably going to hear a bunch of stories like this for a while: "So, now that the Mariners have a GM that used to work for the Brewers, does that mean they'll trade for (Brewer)?" Today's name in the blank is J.J. Hardy. I'm not sure the Mariners could offer anything in return that would be interesting enough for me to be happy about the trade.

Of course, there is still a hole at third base. Beyond the Box Score says Russell Branyan was the 20th best third baseman in 2008, generating 11 runs with his bat and saving 2 in the field. Bill Hall doesn't crack the top 25.

Eric Seidman of FanGraphs has been compiling a list of his favorite highlights from this season. His #1 highlight is CC Sabathia. I think an awful lot of us agree.

Sabathia was not one of the five Brewers who filed for free agency yesterday, on the first day of fifteen when it's allowed. I've always felt like filing that early creates the feeling that you can't wait to run out the door. If you haven't read it yet, the five Brewers who did file yesterday were Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse. Here are some other players that filed for free agency yesterday:

Angels: Mark Teixiera, Garret Anderson, Jon Garland
Braves: Will Ohman, Greg Norton, Julian Tavarez
Cardinals: Braden Looper, Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez, Jason LaRue, Ron Villone, Russ Springer
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux
Marlins: Paul Lo Duca
Mets: Oliver Perez, Damion Easley, Matt Wise
Nationals: Chad Cordero, Ryan Wagner, Pete Orr
Padres: Trevor Hoffman
Reds: Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln
Twins: Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes

UPDATE: Cubs Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox and Bob Howry filed too.

Also, the White Sox declined Ken Griffey's option and the Tigers declined theirs on Edgar Renteria, so they're free agents too.

One trade has already been made: the Royals acquired 1B Mike Jacobs from the Marlins for RP Leo Nunez. Jacobs has above average power but a sub-.300 OBP.

Finally, how many players that can't handle the glove are in the Brewers' farm system? TheJay noted today that Brendan Katin posted a .926 fielding percentage in AAA this season, in the outfield. How is that possible?

Drink up.

2009 Bill James Projections: Mets Hitters

Eric Simon — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:00:06 -0000

No sooner has the 2008 season ended than we're blessed with the first batch of 2009 projections. These come courtesy of ACTA Sports and The Bill James Handbook. The BJH will be availabe on November 1st, months ahead of most of the other baseball annuals, which is great because we get numbers to play with, though we have to accept that the rosters here could change quite a bit by the time next season rolls around.

Here we go.

Hitter	Age	G	AB	HR	RC	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Marlon Anderson	35	74	115	2	13	0.252	0.312	0.357	0.669
Carlos Beltran	32	156	593	30	111	0.277	0.369	0.501	0.870
Luis Castillo	33	123	448	3	57	0.281	0.362	0.344	0.706
Ramon Castro	33	56	167	8	25	0.257	0.330	0.455	0.785
Endy Chavez	31	105	234	2	27	0.274	0.317	0.363	0.681
Ryan Church	30	128	444	16	69	0.275	0.348	0.457	0.805
Carlos Delgado	37	151	558	33	98	0.263	0.361	0.502	0.863
Damion Easley	39	112	278	8	33	0.248	0.317	0.385	0.702
Nick Evans	23	50	162	6	27	0.284	0.341	0.488	0.829
Fernando Martinez	20	128	436	9	53	0.264	0.314	0.390	0.704
Daniel Murphy	24	139	456	14	80	0.296	0.371	0.478	0.849
Jose Reyes	26	160	669	14	108	0.290	0.349	0.448	0.798
Brian Schneider	32	125	405	9	48	0.247	0.328	0.368	0.696
Fernando Tatis	34	88	261	10	36	0.253	0.330	0.429	0.759
David Wright	26	160	618	33	136	0.311	0.402	0.552	0.953

Let's remember that these are just projections. Some numbers and algorithms went into a computer and these popped out. That's a really simplistic way of looking at what is surely a very complex system, and I don't describe it that way to make light of all of the work that goes into developing and implementing a projection system. Forecasting ballplayers may seem like a frivolous use of time, but there is little doubt that most if not all big league teams use player projections of some form or another. They'd be crazy not to use the many years of baseball data that exists to analyze the likelihood of certain performance results for free agents, players on their own team or potential trade targets on other teams. Projections don't tell us what is guaranteed to happen, but they do tell us what could very likely happen, and that should at least be a part of any reasonable player analysis, whether you're in a big league front office or a humble website sending information through this sophisticated series of tubes we call the internets.

Some thoughts on the Mets, bullet-wise.

Marlon Anderson should be jettisoned post-haste. He is not better than Val Pascucci. I'm not sure he's better than Morten Anderson. Why was it necessary to sign him for two years? Anyone?
Carlos Voltron is a god.
Luis Castillo is a Met.
Can Brian Schneider never start again? Can Ramon Castro please stay healthy? The 80 points separating their OPS projections is not insignificant.
Endy Chavez isn't much of a hitter, though he could be one of the most undervalued commodities in baseball.
Ryan Church's projection isn't terrible, but it's not great, either. For comparison, Lastings Milledge's projection is .281/.347/.439. I don't feel so well.
Carlos Delgado, not so bad. The computer thinks Carlos will continue his resurgence and put up an OPS similar to his 2008 mark, which is middle of the pack among big league first basemen.
Damion Easley: Time to retire.
Mark my words: Nick Evans will not OPS .829. Nice thought, though.
Fernando Martinez: Not ready for the big time yet.
Daniel Murphy is the Irish Hammer. Close your eyes. Now picture the Irish Hammer. Now picture him hitting .296/.371/.478 as a 24-year-old. Now picture him doing it at second base. Feel better? How did you read all of that with your eyes closed, eh? Cheater.
I'm a little disappointed in Jose Reyes's projection. That .798 OPS would be a 35-point dropoff from his 2008 line. I'll take the over on this one.
Is it wrong to wish that Brian Schneider had been driving that car in DR and not Ambiorix Burgos? Yea. Probably.
The Mets could do far worse than Fernando Tatis as a righty bat off the bench, Or: Sixteen words I couldn't have fathomed writing a year ago.
David Wright: Yea, let's trade this bum.

I'll post the pitcher projections tomorrow, and then some free agent/trade target projections on Wednesday.

2008 Mets Post-Mortem: The Ballad of Luis Castillo

Eric Simon — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 12:00:06 -0000

If you were asked to guess the player with the highest walk rate (BB%) among Met hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2008, who might you throw out there? Carlos Beltran walks a lot, and he'd likely be my guess. David Wright also has great plate discipline, so he'd probably be a solid choice. Neither? Hmm. I see where this is going. Someone not-so-obvious. Got it: Dan Murphy. No? Gah, !@#$ me. Fine, who?

A: Luis Castillo.

Bingo. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, the player who seems to be universally hated by fans and management alike, whose name precedes some variant of "absolutely has to be traded" on almost every Mets offseason wishlist, was the most disciplined hitter the Mets had this year. Care to guess how many regular second basemen walked at a better rate than Castillo? Zero. Or how many non-OF/1B/DH types did so? Four: Dave Ross, Chipper Jones, Craig Counsell and Ramon Santiago. Castillo's 14.4% BB% was 28th in all of baseball and his 1.43 BB/K rate (walks per strikeout) was 6th in the majors. He also stole 17 bases in 19 attempts, which is kind of astounding considering how hobbled he looked most of the time.

Of course, he doesn't hit for any power and his defense was terrible last year (his .751 RZR would have ranked dead last among NL second basemen had he played enough innings to qualify), though he has historically been a pretty good defensive player, and his lack of range this past season can certainly be attributed in part to his bad knees. There's no guarantee that his knees have gotten appreciably better, but he seemed to move around a bit better late in the season, whatever that's worth.

If we are to believe what we hear, the Mets may look to dump Castillo this offseason. Personally, I think that'd be a mistake, especially if they'd have to take on some other bad contract in return. Castillo is nothing special, but a second baseman who can steal bases and draw walks as Castillo can has plenty of value. That doesn't acquit Omar Minaya of signing him to that horrible contract, but if Castillo can stay somewhat healthy he is something quite different from useless. He's not Chase Utley or Dan Uggla, but he's also not what's holding the Mets back from becoming a championship team.

Who might be out there to replace Castillo if the Mets decided to trade him or relegate him to $6 million pinch-hitting duties? Orlando Hudson's name gets thrown around, though RZR rates his defense as one of the worst in the National League over the past three seasons, including dead last in 2008. His bat would be a huge upgrade over Castillo's, but at what cost? Four years and $40 million, plus the Mets' first round draft pick (or second-rounder, if their first goes to the Dodgers or Brewers or whomever else)?

The Mets might be better off trying to finagle a trade for the Orioles' Brian Roberts, who has been good-to-great defensively, draws plenty of walks, hits for some power, and is a prolific base-stealer. Roberts is set to make $8 million in 2009 in the final year of a two-year extension he signed in 2007. The Cubs tried relentlessly to pry Roberts from the O's last offseason to no avail, though Baltimore may be more inclined to trade Roberts this winter if they thought:

(a) they had no chance of competing in 2009 (they don't), and
(b) they could get something of substance in return

I don't know if that means the Mets would have to give up a Jon Niese or a Fernando Martinez to get someone of Roberts's talents, but I would at least try like hell to make something happen. I've personally been a big fan of Roberts's for three or four years now, hoping he'd find his way into a Mets uniform one of these days.

Internally, the Mets don't have a lot of options. Actually, that's not really true; they have options, they're just mostly terrible ones. Argenis Reyes is pretty clearly not the answer. He's almost as bad a hitter as Anderson Hernandez was in his time with the Mets, and the novelty of having a Reyes-Reyes double-play combination does not offset the fact that Argenis brings zero to the table offensively. Damion Easley is a free agent, and I'd be surprised (disappointed?) if the Mets brought him back. He had a nice year with them in 2007 and a couple of big moments in 2008, but for the most part he was either hurt or unproductive for the better part of the season. He'll also be 39 in November.

The only interesting name within the Mets' organization who could conceivably help the Mets next season is Daniel Murphy, who is currently seeing playing time at second base in the Arizona Fall League. The Mets have said that they have no intention of moving him to 2B in 2009, but my guess is that the front office is simply hedging its bets in case Murphy is a complete disaster at the keystone. Odds are good that Murphy will be pretty bad, as he's moving from an easier defensive position (left field, or even third base which he played in the minors) to a much more difficult one. However, if Murphy turns out to be even adequate defensively at second base, the Mets will have found a real gem. His bat doesn't appear to be strong enough to carry a corner outfield spot, but it would be plenty productive at second, and the Mets would have a young, cheap, homegrown talent to go along with David Wright and Jose Reyes in the infield for years to come. Don't pencil him in just yet; he's still a long shot to be anything more than a failed experiment.

At all events, if we enumerate the Mets' shortcomings in 2008, lack of a solid second baseman would not be especially high on that list. Sure, every bit helps, but pitching -- both starting and relieving -- will have to be the priorities this offseason. If something falls in their lap to improve the team at second base, gravy, but I don't expect the Mets to spend a whole lot of time worrying about it.

Oh Come On Now: Braves 7, Mets 6

Eric Simon — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:50:24 -0000

This was a game the Mets could've and should've won, but they didn't win it, and now they're as far back in the NL East -- 1.5 games -- as they are up in the Wild Card race. The Mets have seven games left, and they could just as easily win the NL East outright as they could miss out on the playoffs altogether.

Wow, was this one a stinker. The Mets collected eight hits and eight walks, scored six runs but left nine men on base. The offense was actually okay overall. They didn't take advantage of a number of chances to build on their early 4-2 lead, but they carried that lead into the seventh and a 4-3 lead into the eighth, where four Mets relievers conspired to allow four runs on four hits and two walks. Jerry Manuel gets an assist for leaving Scott Schoeneweis in to face right-handed Omar Infante, who doubled and scored the first run of the inning.

And.. uhh.. Aaron Heilman, jeez, what can we do? I'm starting to feel bad for the guy, but the sad fact is that he simply can't be counted on to do anything positive for this team right now. Sure, on the whole the bullpen is a morass of ineptitude, but Heilman is the bog monster that keeps them entrenched in the muck. I still support him because he's a good guy, he's homegrown, and he has a history of being a very good reliever for the Mets. Right now, though, it's hard to find anything good to say about him. I don't know if he's injured or just having a miserable year, but he's death on this team every time he goes out there.

I was more than a little surprised to see Damion Easley pinch-hitting for Ryan Church in the ninth. Church has been pretty useless at the plate recently, but Easley can't even run straight at full speed. I've gotta think that Church is a better option at this point, even given his struggles and the lefty-lefty matchup (though he has hit a respectable .273/.330/.424 against lefties this year). Carlos Delgado's two-run homer earlier that inning made things interesting, but Easley surprised nobody by striking out to end the game.

The Phillies' and Brewers' victories cost the Mets a game in each playoff race, but they're still in pretty good shape for the Wild Card if they can cobble together three or four wins this week. Of course, if the Wild Card winner comes out of the NL East it gets a first-round matchup with the Cubs, and can count on seeing Carlos Zambrano or Rich Harden at least three or four times in a five-game series.

Ah well, onward and upward. Those aforementioned Cubbies roll into Shea for four games beginning Monday. Chicago has already clinched the NL Central crown, and manager Lou Piniella has said that his starters won't go more than five innings apiece (except perhaps for Monday's starter Jason Marquis), and we may see a mish-mash of starters and September callups throughout the series. The Mets need to cash in on any advantage they can, so if the Cubs want to take it easy this week they'll get no complaints from me.

Big winners: David Wright, +21.4% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +19.0% WPA
Big losers: Scott Schoeneweis, -34.0% WPA, Joe Smith, -24.7% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright homerun, +17.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Francoeur triple, -24.7% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -49.5%
Total batter WPA: -0.5%
GWRBI: Martin Prado

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETSfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name	# of Posts
LOUtheMETSfan	127
BobbyV_Incognito	106
itsmetsforme	69
Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright	64
Omar21	32
pingel	27
gogomets	22
JoshNY	15
anonymous	10
mmxii	6
MetsfaninVA	5
goth brooks	1
kingcritical	1
Simons	1