SB Nation - Casey Blake

NL West in Review: 3rd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Atkins could soon be a teammate of the pitcher he just hit a home run off of in this picture: Cole Hamels. Maybe going ~~to a hitter's park~~ away could help ~~his career~~ the Rockies.

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You want to know where the Rockies lost the division in 2009? Don't look at Jorge de la Rosa's groin (please don't). Don't blame Clint Hurdle. Don't blame Canada. Don't look at the Rockies seemingly annual inability to beat one NL West team.

No - your culprit is the hot corner.

The Rockies were heavy favorites to outclass the NL West at third base going into the season. Garrett Atkins was projected to finally rebound while Ian Stewart was expected to exhibit growth. Either way, Colorado was sitting pretty. Brendan Scolari's preseason report had the Rockies way out in front at third base, totalling 5.5 WAR, with San Francisco second at just 2.3 WAR. Los Angeles was in a tie for last at just 2.0 WAR.

Part of that is misleading, as his projections gave the Rockies about 300 extra PA, so Colorado's lead over LA should been more in the neighborhood of 2.5 WAR. Instead, it was Los Angeles that trounced the Rockies by almost 3.5 WAR. There's a six game swing right there.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	4	.313	26	92	.368	.532	.392	6.04
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	20	92	.356	.424	.353	4.95
3. Arizona	4	.247	39	90	.336	.487	.355	3.70
4. San Diego	5	.258	20	100	.314	.420	.331	3.19
5. Colorado	4	.223	22	77	.314	.386	.307	1.56

The third base position was comparatively very stable in 2009 for the division - only the Rockies failed to have a third baseman accrue 500+ PA.Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5:

You might be surprised who comes out on top of the NL West rankings for third base. (Hint: this man is responsible).

There were 23 total third basemen, with the top five representing the main starters from each of the five teams. The complete rankings/stats can be viewed here, along with all the juicy math behind the numbers:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Casey Blake	LAD	557	.282	18	78	.365	.471	.362	8.0	4.00
2	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	512	.320	20	69	.377	.544	.401	-4.5	3.82
3	Mark Reynolds	AZ	554	.246	37	80	.339	.528	.375	-4.3	3.23
4	Kevin Kouzmanoff	SDP	571	.238	18	71	.303	.420	.325	7.7	2.62
5	Ian Stewart	COL	379	.225	15	41	.327	.420	.320	4.7	1.57
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
19	Chris Burke	SDP	3	.000	0	0	.000	.000	.000	-	-0.06
20	Josh Wilson	SDP	13	.154	0	0	.154	.231	.167	-	-0.10
21	Augie Ojeda	AZ	63	.182	1	4	.262	.291	.245	-4.1	-0.12
22	Edgar Gonzalez	SFG	15	.214	0	1	.267	.429	.284	-1.4	-0.13
23	Blake DeWitt	LAD	26	.200	0	2	.192	.280	.234	-0.6	-0.14

Arizona

2009 in Review

Mark Reynolds overcame all of his strikeouts to post the division's best home run and RBI totals, nearly doubling his nearest pursuer in the HR column. His poor fielding cost his team about half a win, but he is certainly a feared hitter in just his third season in the league. Augie Ojeda struggled in his 20 games, but Ryan Roberts and Chad Tracy helped the cause in their limited duty.

2010 in Preview

Reynolds is firmly planted as the full-time starter for the forseeable future, and the 26-year-old should only be getting better. He made just $423k last season and is due for a nice raise in arbitration.

Colorado

2009 in Review

All four Rockies who manned third base were actually below replacement value hitting-wise with park factors considered, a very disappointing showing considering the personnel in place. Ian Stewart failed to hit over two and a quarter, and his patented slugging could only match Kevin Kouzmanoff. Garrett Atkins' struggles are well documented, and while he was a below average fielder, I still calculate that he was a +0.34 WAR player at third (far from the 5.5 projected), likely due to a difference in park adjustments compared to Fangraphs.

2010 in Preview

Garrett Atkins will be gone and Ian Stewart has the job. As glum as this season was, it should provide Rockies fans with great hope for next season. Quite frankly, there's nowhere to go but up, and the potential is certainly there to make up that ground on the division. I believe Stewart can take that necessary step forward, especially with improved hitting against LHP, which he never had a problem with until 2009. Stewart made $404k last season, which will get a bump for next year. With Atkins leaving, Dan O'Dowd will probably look for a veteran bench bat who can also play third, perhaps a Mike Lamb.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Casey Blake is the surprise winner in the third base rankings led in large part by his 0.8 WAR defensive contribution, which could quite frankly be a fluke. He hasn't even been had a positive UZR at third base since his first year as a starter in Cleveland six seasons ago. He was very clearly an asset with the bat, as he provided more value to Los Angeles offensively than anyone not named Manny, Andre or Matt. Ronnie Belliard had a ridiculous .458 wOBA in his 38 September PA in Dodger blue.

2010 in Preview

Seven months ago, the Dodgers thought they might be eventually passing the torch from Blake to Blake (DeWitt), but Casey's emergence and DeWitt's regression makes that seem a little silly now. Blake is the clear full-time starter for at least next season, as he will be in the second year of his 3-year $17.5million deal.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Kevin Kouzmanoff nearly usurped Blake as the division's most valuable fielder at the five spot, which is all that saves him after regressing offensively once again in a San Diego uniform. Three Padres appear in the bottom five, but their negative contributions are so small that Chase Headley negated them six times over in 113 PA.

2010 in Preview

The 28-year-old Kouz is eligible for arbitration and looks to be the starter for next season. There won't be a free agent replacing the Colorado native due to financial constraints, but if he struggles more, look for Chase Headley to move back to his natural position, opening an outfield spot for an infusion of youth.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Pablo Sandoval is clearly the best hitting third baseman in the division, or at least he was in 2009. The 23-year-old Venezuelan struggles with the glove (as you might expect with a novice scout's eye) more than any third baseman in the division, but his hitting production is mind-blowing considering the hurdles he has: no protection from Molina, age, moving positions, AT&T Park....The only reason he doesn't top this list is the 97 PA he spent manning first base.

2010 in Preview

Sandoval made just $402k last season, less than even Eugenio Velez. He'll get a nice raise and will be starting at third and hitting third Opening Day.

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

22 days ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Russell Martin hits an RBI single during the fourth inning of Game 4 of the National League Championship baseball series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Oct. 19, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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In his Sunday morning blog, ESPN's Buster Olney suggests the Dodgers will trade one of their arbitration eligible players this offseason:

Los Angeles is expected to move at least one of its many arbitration-eligible players via trade. You might match Halladay with what the Dodgers have to offer -- Canada native Russell Martin plus others. But remember that Martin's OPS has dropped 162 points during the past two seasons. He also is climbing swiftly up the arbitration ladder; his salary might climb from $3.9 million last season to $6 million next season. In the end, the Dodgers might not get the ace they need.

So, I took a look at the list of arbitration eligible players the Dodgers have this offseason. Here is the list:

Hong-Chih Kuo

There are four players that LA will certainly not trade right now: Kemp, Ethier, Sherrill and Kuo. Kemp and Ethier are obvious, and Sherrill and Kuo are two of the best left-handed relievers in the game, so they aren't going anywhere.

Of the remaining four players, I don't see the Dodgers dealing Broxton or Billingsley. John Perrotto wrote in his Sunday On The Beat article that Billz would be available in a trade this offseason. I just don't see it. I see him just having an off year in 2009 due to his jump in innings pitched in 2008. Broxton was one the best closers in baseball during the regular season, but for the second season in a row, Broxton blew up in the NLCS.

That leaves Russell Martin and James Loney. I have been down on Martin for two years now, so I would be happy if he was dealt as part of a package for an ace starting pitcher. I do like Loney, but the Dodgers need a power hitter at first base, and I could see them packaging him for ace starter as well.

Should LA trade Russell Martin, they could go out and sign Bengie Molina who still can hit for an old catcher. He batted cleanup for the Giants most of the 2009 season. If they decide to package Loney, they could move Casey Blake to first base, and go out and sign Adrian Beltre. Beltre is probably the best fielding third baseman in the game, and can still hit for power and steal a few bags.

Poll

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Should the Twins Bring Back Joe Crede?

Jesse — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:18:29 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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Last February, Scott Boras client Joe Crede dropped his asking price enough for the Twins to sign him to an incentive-laden deal. He was exactly as advertised, from the glove to the power to the number of games he was healthy, but with the Twins going into 2010 with third base in essentially the same position it was at going into 2009, should the Twins double-dip on their experiment?

Okay, so the situation isn't exactly the same. Crede will be another year older with another injury-plagued season under his ~~back~~ belt, there are a pair of third base prospects that are nearly major league ready (Are they the next Casey Blake / Corey Koskie tandem? No? Right, then.) and the alternatives will be a bit more expensive. But in spite of all those things, the team is still in a similar position as they don't have the one sure answer that they need.

His '09 deal of $2.5 million base with playing time incentives ($50,000 for 400, 425, 450, 475, 500 and 525 plate appearances) and award incentives made his possible payout a reasonable $7,000,000. Suffice it to say he didn't reach any of those, so the Twins paid just the minimum. But according to the FanGraphs value scale, they still believe that Crede would have been worth $8.3 million on the open market for the performance he gave this past summer. How? Because of his defense and the position he plays, and did I mention his defense, Crede was worth 18.4 runs above replacement.

Among third basemen with at least 350 plate appearances, FanGraphs values Crede's defensive performance as fifth-best in all of baseball (behind Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre) in terms of fielding runs above avearge. He also tallied the highest UZR/150 total among third basemen with more than 700 innings in the field.

Long story short? Crede plays some wicked defense. Arguably better than any third baseman on the free agent market.

Joe knows the Twins, and isn't opposed to returning to Minnesota next year. Would playing more regularly on a non-artificial surface play less havoc on his back and knees?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

We all know the risks involved with Crede, which means the game would be all about how to mitigate those risks to both the player and the club. That means possibly giving him scheduled days off to keep his body as fresh and healthy as possible, not to mention offering a contract that resembles the 2009 version that will pay for good health.

Other free agent options are likely to cost more than Crede. Internal options may not be the health risk, but none of them can flash the leather like Crede, either.

What would you rather do? A Brendan Harris/Matt Tolbert platoon would cost a little less, but not significantly less than a $2.5 million base. Another thought: when (not if) Daniel Valencia gets his callup in 2010, what kind of a player do you want available as a mentor?

There's merit in considering Crede's return, it would just have to meet the right criteria. Where do you sit?

Poll

If you were Bill Smith, would you try to re-sign Joe Crede?

Ethier Wins "Clutch Performer Of The Year" Award

Eric Stephen — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 17:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Congratulations, Andre, for a great and "clutch" season

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The Dodgers announced yesterday that Andre Ethier won the "2009 MLB Clutch Performer of the Year Award Presented by Pepsi," an honor voted on by fans. From the Dodger press release:

Ethier led the Majors with six walk-off hits, including a Major League record four walk-off home runs (tied with Jimmie Foxx in 1940 and Roy Sievers in 1957): June 6th against the Phillies in the 12th inning; June 29th against Colorado in the 13th inning; August 6th vs. Atlanta in the 9th; and September 15th against the Pirates in the 13th. Ethier has a Major League-leading nine walk-off hits since the beginning of the 2008 season, and his six in 2009 are the most in a single-season by any player since at least 1974.

The left-handed slugger collected six multi-home run games on the year, tied for second with Philadelphia ’s Ryan Howard behind Albert Pujols (10) of the Cardinals. The Arizona State product became just the fourth Dodger in franchise history to amass at least 40 doubles and 30 home runs in the same season, joining Babe Herman (1930), Raul Mondesi (1997) and Eric Karros (1999). On June 26th against Seattle , Andre drove in a career-high six runs and compiled his first career three-homer game, becoming the ninth Dodger in franchise history to accomplish the feat.

Here is a recap of Ethier's six walk-off hits in 2009:

May 2: On Dodger Thoughts night at the ballpark, not only did I get a copy of Jon Weisman's book, but also got treated to a walk-off win. Tied at one in the 10th inning, the Dodgers loaded the bases with nobody out, when Ethier launched a single off the wall to bring home the 2-1 win over the Padres. This was the ninth straight home win to open the season, a streak that would extend to a record 13 straight before the Manny Ramirez suspension ended the fun four days later.
Ethier Walk-Off: "Single," one RBI
June 5: Down 3-2 to the Phillies, closer Brad Lidge got the first two outs easily, but then ran into some trouble. He got two strikes on each of Casey Blake and James Loney, but they managed to reach base via hit and walk, respectively. Russell Martin then grounded to Pedro Feliz, but the third baseman gave the Dodgers new life by booting the ball. Ethier came up and doubled into the corner, giving the Dodgers a thrilling 4-3 win.
Ethier Walk-Off: Double, two RBI.
June 6: The very next day, Brad Lidge blew another save, but this time to Rafael Furcal, who hit a game-tying pinch hit home run in the ninth inning. The game remained tied at two until the 12th inning, when Ethier slammed a two-out rocket to dead center off Chad Durbin for his second straight walk-off.
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, one RBI.
June 29: After a typically solid Randy Wolf start (two runs in six innings), the Dodgers threw a picket fence of relievers at the Rockies. Seven different relievers each pitched one inning, allowing just three baserunners while striking out 13, to keep the game tied into the bottom of the 13th. Blake led off the inning with a single, and Ethier ended it with a shot into the all-you-can-eat pavilion in right field, for a 4-2 Dodger victory, one of 14 against the Rockies in 2009.
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, two RBI.
August 6: Down 4-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, the Dodgers had to face Braves closer Rafael Soriano, who came into the game with a 1.80 ERA, and opposing batters were hitting just .157/.234/.221 against him. A pair of singles by Juan Pierre and Furcal gave Ethier yet another opportunity to come through. After taking two balls, Ethier hit a drive to right field that just cleared the wall, sneding Dodger fans into a frenzy yet again. As I wrote in the game recap: "After Ethier hit the home run, Vin Scully didn't speak for 45 seconds, letting the game speak for itself. Sometimes, less is more."
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, three RBI.
September 15: Matt Kemp's game-tying RBI single allowed the Dodgers to send the game with the Pirates into extra innings. After three scoreless innings of extra-inning relief by James McDonald (you know, the guy whose 2.72 ERA and 3.41 FIP as a reliever are woefully underappreciated), Ronald Belisario gave up the go-ahead run in the top of the 13th inning, only his second run given up in 18 appearances since returning from the disabled list. Never fear, "Endre" is here. With one out and Furcal on first base, lefty Phil Dumatrait was summoned from the bullpen to face Ethier, who struggled against lefties all season. However, Ethier at Dodger Stadium was a different story, hitting .305/.376/.610 against southpaws wearing the home whites. He came through yet again, launching a towering fly ball that reached the seats in right, his fourth walk-off dinger of the season.
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, two RBI.

There were six "MLB Pepsi Clutch Performer of the Month" awards given out this season, but Ethier did not win any of them. He was a candidate in June, but lost the fan vote to Tim Lincecum of the Giants.

It was an amazing season for the 27-year old Ethier. He came to the plate in the ninth inning or later representing either the tying or go-ahead run 42 times this season. All he did was slam five doubles and four home runs, and hit a whopping .448/.619/1.034 in those situations. Congratulations, Endre. This was a well-deserved award.

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:09:33 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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2008 Roster
2006 Roster

For the second year in a row I tried to put together a full 25-man roster, and while I made the cut this team has some pretty big holes. Generally it's old, which is surprising, and there's going to be some pretty bad defense in places, but if any of the three outfielders get hurt there's nobody to be a fourth outfielder. Luckily, none of the guys on this team have to play a single game.

Without further ado, your batting order:

Name	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	'09 Team	With Twins
Jason Bartlett	SS	.320	.389	.490	14	66	Rays	'04 - '07
Luis Castillo	2B	.302	.387	.346	1	40	Mets	'06 - '07
Garrett Jones	RF	.293	.372	.567	21	44	Pirates	2007
Torii Hunter	CF	.299	.366	.508	22	90	Angels	'97 - '07
Casey Blake	3B	.280	.363	.468	18	79	Dodgers	'00 - '02
Randy Ruiz	1B	.313	.385	.635	10	17	Blue Jays	2008
David Ortiz	DH	.238	.332	.462	28	99	Red Sox	'97 - '02
A.J. Pierzynski	C	.300	.331	.425	13	49	White Sox	'98 - '03
Craig Monroe	LF	.215	.287	.354	3	16	Pirates	2008

All in all that's not a bad offensive lineup. According to Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, this offense would blow last year's out of the water: 5.741 runs per game, or about 930 runs over the course of a full season. Even with Jones and Monroe being stone defenders in the outfield corners, those runs are going to make up the difference.

The tool also insists that all of the best lineups would have Monroe hitting 8th and Castillo 9th, while a vast majority of the best lineups still have Bartlett leading off, but they also have Ruiz batting cleanup with his massive OBP and SLG in limited time.

Your bench? Outfielder-less. Henry Blanco of the Pirates is your catcher, followed by a trio of infielders: Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Adam Everett (Tigers) and Juan Castro (Dodgers).

Next up? Your starting rotation:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
Johan Santana	13-9	3.13	166.2	146	46	Mets	'00 - '07
Matt Garza	8-12	3.95	203.0	189	79	Rays	'06 - '07
Kyle Lohse	6-10	4.74	117.2	77	36	Cardinals	'01 - '06
Livan Hernandez	9-12	5.44	183.2	102	67	Mets/Nationals	2008
Sidney Ponson	1-7	7.36	58.2	32	25	Royals	2007

I want you to know that I seriously considered going with a three-man rotation, a three-man bench, and then having a nine-man bullpen, but the reality is that even the bullpen pickings get a little thin once you get six or seven deep. As far as other starters I could have considered, there aren't many guys out there right now. Carlos Silva? Absolutely not.

Last season saw Santana, Lohse and Garza as the top three in the rotation as well. Moving onto the bullpen, last year I had Balfour closing, but this season I'd probably tab Hawkins.

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	2.13	63.1	45	16	Astros	'95 - '03
Craig Breslow	7-5	2.60	55.1	44	18	Athletics	'08 - '09
J.C. Romero	0-0	2.70	16.2	12	13	Phillies	'99 - '05
Joe Beimel	1-6	3.58	55.1	35	19	Nationals/Rockies	2004
Grant Balfour	5-4	4.81	67.1	69	33	Rays	'01 - '04
Eddie Guardado	1-2	4.46	38.1	20	15	Rangers	'93 - '03, '08

Even in limited time, Romero is still managing to escape at least the appearance of damage in spite of some unnerving peripherals. Like the bench and the back of the rotation, this one of this team's weaker spots.

If injuries weren't a factor, how would this team fare over a season? Would an offense like this be able to keep this team afloat with the help of a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation? Or would those unproven bats pair up with some older arms to bring the team's fortunes crashing to earth?

Guys who have made the team each of the three years: Pierzynski, Blake, Ortiz, Beimel, Romero and Hawkins.

Poll

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

169 votes

Probably a .500 team

322 votes

Bottom dwellers, for sure

181 votes

672 votes | Poll has closed

A Look Toward 2010: The Offense

Eric Stephen — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 22:09:58 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

The 2010 Dodger offense figures to be very similar to the 2009 offense.

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One of the ways to ease the pain of a baseball-less offseason is the annual Bill James Handbook. The 2010 version will be released on November 1, 2010, but the fine folks at ACTA Sports provided us with an early look at the player projections. Here's a look at the 2010 projections for the Dodgers, with a look back at how their 2009 projections fared.

I threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 projected	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 projected	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 projected	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 status	Type A free agent

Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 projected	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats

Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 projected	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 status	under contract

Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 projected	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 status	under contract

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 projected	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 status	holds player option

Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 projected	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 projected	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 projected	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 status	under contract

Pitching projections will come tomorrow.

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

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There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Is there a market for Adrian Beltre?

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:58:26 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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Impending free agent Adrian Beltre should garner interest on the open market, but will have to take a serious pay cut to keep suitors interested.

After the 2004 season, a year in which Beltre hit a career best .334 with 48 home runs, also a career high, he signed a five year deal worth 48 million dollars. Beltre never came close to matching his numbers from 2004 while with the Mariners, posting a .266 average over the five year contract.

Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder, which could limit his options this offseason. The Seattle Post-Globe suggests the Angels or Dodgers, but don't expect the Dodgers to spend with Casey Blake locked in at third through 2011.

The White Sox are expected to pursue Chone Figgins this offseason, but could turn to Adrian Beltre if Figgins price goes up. Beltre could likely land a two or three year deal, worth around 6-8 million dollars annually.

Where do you see Beltre going this offseason?

Why The Manny Ramirez Shower Incident Is A Good Thing

Eric Stephen — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 05:28:55 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next shower for Manny Ramirez will be one of jeers, from Philadelphia fans as he rounds the bases with a home run Wednesday night.

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It's funny to see what little things become big stories in the glaring spotlight of the postseason. The latest molehill to be made into a mountain is the Manny Ramirez shower incident. As Jonathan Broxton was pitching in the bottom of the ninth inning last night, Manny was in the clubhouse, taking a shower. Manny was removed after the top of the ninth in favor of Juan Pierre for defensive purposes.

This is the type of issue tailor made for Bill Plaschke. Wind him up, and watch the outrage fly from keyboard to screen. In fact, Plaschke was so excited that his next column was essentially written for him, he couldn't wait, and posted a preview of sorts on The Fabulous Forum tonight:

Jonathan Broxton was sweating. Russell Martin was fearing. Joe Torre was grumbling. The Dodgers hanging on the dugout rail were clenching. The Dodgers fans watching at home were dying.

Manny Ramirez?

He was bathing.

The thing is, this really isn't a big deal. Manny always does this, so why should he change now? As Joe Torre told the NY Times:

"He’s a cool customer," Torre said. "But he certainly didn’t have any lack of respect because of that. I think the way it turned out, it probably doesn’t look good. But it’s nothing different than he had done before."

I do have a bit of an old school mind of this. I have always wondered why starting pitchers, for instance, go take a shower before the game is over, especially when they wait to see if their potential decision is still intact before departing to the clubhouse. But, I realize this is a common occurrence among many players, and if they don't have a problem with it, why should I, or anyone else?

Back in 2007, in a similar situation with the Red Sox, Manny was flippant while down 3-1 in the league championship series:

"Why should we panic?" he said Wednesday in a rare clubhouse interview. "We've got a great team."

And then, this: "It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."

The Red Sox came back to win the three remaining games of that 2007 ALCS, and swept through the World Series as well.

Look, it's not news that Manny Ramirez marches to the beat of his own drum. He is wired differently than most humans, let alone fellow ballplayers. Whatever he has to do to be normal Manny, I'm all for it. As Casey Blake told MLB Network:

In the position we're in, you really have to have an 'I don't give a crap attitude.' Our backs are against the wall, and there's no room for that right now. You just gotta go out and have fun and just play relaxed. There's no room for being uptight anymore.

The Dodgers need to concentrate on winning one game at a time, and the more they can keep to their regular routine, the less they have to think about being down 3-1 or having to win three straight games. No pressure, no problem.

Dodgers Turn To The Wolf To Get Even

Eric Stephen — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:59:15 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

The Wolfman Cometh tonight for the Dodgers

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So, other than that, how was the play last night, Mrs. Lincoln?

If baseball had a football schedule, we would have a week to stew over last night's debacle, but luckily the greatest game on Earth is quick to forgive and forget, as the Dodgers have a chance to quickly erase last night's memory from their minds.

Randy Wolf returns to his old stomping grounds tonight, trying to even the NLCS at two. Wolf was drafted by the Phillies in 1997, and spent his first ten years as a pro in the Phillies' organization. He started the very first game at Citizens Bank Park, in 2004. Manager Joe Torre thought highly enough of Wolf to start him in the NLDS opener against the Cardinals. However, Wolf was inexplicably dropped to fourth in the rotation for the NLCS, but that decision may just pay off just when the Dodgers need it most. Wolf was a rock for the Dodgers this season, leading the club in starts, innings, and quality starts.

Left-handed batters hit just .159/.217/.200 against Wolf this season, striking out in 60 of 185 plate appearances, a stellar 32.4% of the time. In Game 1 against the Cardinals, lefties Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus had two hits and two walks in five plate appearances against Wolf. Ryan Howard, who struggled against LHP all season, has a double and two walks in five plate appearances against southpaws in the NLCS, with three runs batted in.

Joe Blanton, who was used in relief in the NLDS, starts tonight for the Phillies. After giving up five runs in five innings in Cincinnati on May 21 (in a win!), Blanton's ERA stood at 7.11, as home plate was always open for the opposition. Since then, however, Blanton really turned it around, going 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 23 starts, averaging 6.57 innings per start.

To win tonight, the Dodger offense needs to show up. Over the last two games, the Dodgers have no extra-base hits, and have just two runs and 11 baserunners in total, hitting .145/.190/.145. I keep hearing Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park, but the Dodgers are doing their best to convince me otherwise. Since the beginning of 2008, the Dodgers have scored just 29 runs in 10 games in Philadelphia, including the playoffs. Nine of those runs came in one game, earlier this season, but other than that runs have been few and far between for the Dodgers in the city of brotherly love. To win tonight and in this series, they need to score, and score often.

A few notes:

Manny Ramirez has 15 hits in 26 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .577/.636/.731 with one home run
James Loney is seven for 10 with a double off Blanton, hitting .700/.750/.800
Andre Ethier has six hits in 14 at-bats, including two solo home runs, against Blanton, hitting .429/.467/.857
Casey Blake has just one single in 23 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .043/.154/.043
Pedro Feliz is five for 19 with three homers off Wolf, hitting .294/.316/.824
Carlos Ruiz if four for six, with two doubles and a home run (shocker, I know) off Wolf, packing a lot of production (.667/.750/1.500) into just eight plate appearances

The Dodgers this postseason are 4-0 when playing on a day with other games scheduled, and 0-2 when they are the lone game on the schedule. The Yankees and Angels play Game 3 of the ALCS today at 1:13pm.

Here are the lineups for Game 4:

Dodgers		Phillies
SS	Furcal	SS	Rollins
CF	Kemp	CF	Victorino
RF	Ethier	2B	Utley
LF	Manny	1B	Howard
1B	Loney	RF	Werth
2B	Belliard	LF	Ibañez
C	Martin	3B	Feliz
3B	Blake	C	Ruiz
P	Wolf	P	Blanton

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Four Preview

SB Nation - Casey Blake

NL West in Review: 3rd Basemen

Arizona

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

Colorado

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

San Diego

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

2009 in Review

2010 in Preview

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Should the Twins Bring Back Joe Crede?

If you were Bill Smith, would you try to re-sign Joe Crede?

Ethier Wins "Clutch Performer Of The Year" Award

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

Probably a .500 team

Bottom dwellers, for sure

A Look Toward 2010: The Offense

Infield

Outfield

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Free Agents (13+1)

Options (2)

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Under Contract (4)

Under Team Control (15)

Is there a market for Adrian Beltre?

Why The Manny Ramirez Shower Incident Is A Good Thing

Dodgers Turn To The Wolf To Get Even