SB Nation - Mike Pelfrey

Holiday Filler: Carlos Beltran's Greatest Hits

James Kannengieser — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:00:18 -0000

by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Here is a respite from the rumor mill, the top ten most valuable plate appearances of Carlos Beltran's Mets career, as ranked by WPA. There's some pleasant memories here:

10. 4/16/2005
Play: RBI single off Todd Jones in the 8th inning
WPA: .331
Game Result: Mets 4, Marlins 3

Beltran had a rocky first year with the Mets but was great in his first two weeks (.884 OPS). He tied the game with a single in the 8th and the Mets took the lead on a Mike Piazza single one batter later. Braden Looper blew the save in the 9th but earned a vulture win after Ramon Castro's walkoff base hit.

9. 5/31/2008
Play: Two-run homer off Jonathan Broxton in the 8th inning
WPA: .337
Game Result: Mets 3, Dodgers 2

Fernando Tatis put the Mets ahead three batters after Beltran tied it up. Mike Pelfrey pitched great and then went on his mid-summer hot streak.

8. 5/12/2009
Play: Bases loaded walk off Jeff Bennett in the 10th inning
WPA: .344
Game Result: Mets 4, Braves 3

Sadly, this was one of the better moments of the 2009 season. The walk happened on a 3-2 count and it's possible the pitch was really strike three. Just nine days until 2010.

7. 5/23/2006
Play: Solo homer off Ryan Madson in the 16th inning
WPA: .362
Game Result: Mets 9, Phillies 8

A sixteen inning, five-and-a-half hours long marathon ended about the best way possible: walkoff homer off Madson. The Mets bullpen gave up just two runs in eleven innings. Those were the days.

6. 9/25/2008
Play: RBI single off Kevin Hart in the 9th inning
WPA: .388
Game Result: Mets 7, Cubs 6

This was a must-win game, coming one night after the infamous David Wright vs. Bob Howry matchup. Micah Hoffpauir aided this walkoff single with some spotty glovework but not before going 5-5 with two home runs in a career night.

5. 4/10/2005
Play: Two-run homer off John Smoltz in the 8th inning
WPA: .415
Game Result: Mets 6, Braves 1

Pedro Martinez was spectacular in this one (9 IP, 1 R, 9 K) and a go-ahead two run bomb off Smoltz was all the Mets needed to win. Smoltz struck out fifteen in 7.1 IP.

4. 6/11/2008
Play: Two-run homer off Edgar Gonzalez in the 13th inning
WPA: .436
Game Result: Mets 5, Diamondbacks 3

Billy Wagner blew the save but Beltran picked his teammate up in extra innings. Willie Randolph would be unemployed just a week later.

3. 9/23/2005
Play: Three-run homer off Gary Majewski in the 10th inning
WPA: .454
Game Result: Mets 5, Nationals 2

Carlos Baerga tied the game with a two-run homer in the 9th off Roberto Hernandez but Beltran's three-run shot sealed it one inning later. Steve Trachsel tossed six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

2. 8/29/2008
Play: Grand slam off Kevin Gregg in the 9th inning
WPA: .723
Game Result: Mets 5, Marlins 4

This put the Mets up three runs heading to the bottom of the 9th, which might as well have been one run given the bullpen at the time. Luis Ayala did what everyone expected him to do: allow two runs and give every Met fan a heart attack after allowing a mammoth foul ball home run which would have given the Marlins a win. Thanks for the memories Luis!

1. 8/22/2006
Play: Two-run homer off Jason Isringhausen in the 9th inning
WPA: .789
Game Result: Mets 8, Cardinals 7

Many fans call this their favorite regular season game ever and with good reason. I was in attendance and was treated to two tape measure shots from Carlos Delgado (one of which was #400 for his career), two homers from Albert Pujols and a Beltran come-from-behind walkoff.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Where The Mets Might Fit In The Young Trade Market

Sam Page — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:00:29 -0000

In a weak free agent class, and maybe Omar Minaya's last year with the team, one would expect the Mets to make at least one splash in the trade market. So far, four semi-major trades have gone through, before the BBWAA has even announced its yearly award winners. The Mets didn't really "lose out" on any of those four players, but the trades do provide some insight into the evolving market, and how the Mets fit in.

Matt Cerrone noted in metsblog's coverage of the J.J. Hardy trade the other day that three of the four trades featured arbitration eligible players (Teahen, Hardy, Hermida) and cited a Buster Olney piece that claimed teams were eager to avoid the "broken" arbitration system. While I'll accept avoiding arbitration as a partial explanation, it ignores some of the other interesting angles of these deals. The idea that the team dealing the arbitration-eligible player decides between only two options: prospects or non-tendering, implies that they are desperate to deal the player and would accept any trade return. These three deals didn't bear that out.

Firstly, the Hermida deal most clearly fits the Olney-mold--the Marlins didn't want to pay arbitration money for a replacement level outfielder without a bunch of unrealized potential. Such a trade is standard procedure for the Marlins, however, and hardly--if at all--suggests an overarching market shift. From the perspective of the Red Sox, Hermida represented a high-upside reserve outfielder that cost minimal talent and money. If more arbitration-eligible players like Hermida are easily available, big-market teams like the Mets would obviously benefit in taking a flier on a few of them.

Mark Teahen, similar to Hermida in his recent replacement-level performance and past value, fetched Chris Getz and Josh Fields. While Getz lost his starting job to Gordon Beckham and Josh Fields just lost his starting job, both players having a starting job in the first place reflects track records of minor league success and some major league competency. Both players could be decent placeholders on an uncertain Royals infield, with the potential to be more. Dave Cameron went as far as calling this trade "fantastic" for the Royals, which may seem hyperbolic, but his analysis is pretty spot-on.

With both Hermida and Teahen, their respective teams were trying to avoid arbitration. The arbitration system is set to award those players salaries equal to or slightly more than they would be worth, but that seemingly has more to do with Hermida and Teahen being broken, than it does the arbitration system. Both player had performed well below expectation and past levels of performance, particularly defensively, which the arbitration process inherently undervalues, so they inevitably were going to get salaries bigger than they deserved, based on service time alone. Getting back to the original Olney/Cerrone point, I think the cause is correct, but the effect may be wrong. Yes, the arbitration system is broken, in that it will errantly award Teahen and Hermida above-market contracts, but that doesn't mean there will necessarily be a bunch of free, young, and talented arbitration-eligible players available, as Matt seems to suggest. It just means that some crappy arbitration-eligible players will be available, and not necessarily for nothing, as the Teahen trade indicated.

J.J. Hardy is actually a good counter-example. Tommy Bennett used the Hardy trade as a springboard to explain why, in economic terms, players of his caliber would not be part of Olney's "avalanche of non-tenders," but we have the benefit of already knowing the Brewers weren't operating under this prospect or non-tender paradigm. They were trading Hardy just as much because it saved money, as they had a potentially equal replacement in Alcides Escobar in waiting. And while some may have found Carlos Gomez an underwhelming return, in terms of strict value, the trade was completely fair. Gomez is under team control for 4 more years and is, because of his elite defense, at least a 1.5 WAR centerfielder. Hardy, who is ~4 WAR at SS, is the superior player now, but is more costly and a free agent in two years. The Kalkman trade calculator method, which subsumes these factors, judged Gomez a more valuable asset, and given his offensive upside (outfield Jimmy Rollins?), he seems like a more than fair return.

What this trade indicates, if anything, is that teams are willing to make perceptually unfair trades for less-stable assets of approximately equal value. It also perhaps shows a preference to fill one hole on the roster, as opposed to acquire a few more players that may be more valuable in theory, but redundant on the roster. Whereas proven-star for young player trades typically required a large package of elite prospects to get done, the Hardy trade, and even the Cliff Lee trade before it, seemingly suggest a move toward proper evaluation of young players, in which either a good-not-great package suffices or one stud younger player gets traded (Sanchez/Alderson?).

Maybe I'm reading too much into one trade, but this development would seemingly benefit the Mets more than a slew of crappy arbitration-eligible players hitting free agency. While the Mets don't have a set of young players with major-league success like Gomez (yay 2009 in-season development failure!), they do have a set of interesting tweener types with starter potential (Murphy, Evans, Parnell, Pagan) and a set of near-ready top prospects (Mejia, Davis, Niese, Martinez), whose value could be boosted in this market. While it would probably be selling low on many of those players, with the windows closing on the Mets "core," the Mets could be set up to make several win-now trades that are long-term losses of value. A Halladay trade centered around Mike Pelfrey? Or maybe shopping Daniel Murphy to a team with a thirdbase vacancy? We'll see.

No Choice At All: Holliday>Lackey

Sam Page — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:00:26 -0000

Yesterday, Jon Heyman "tweeted" that the Mets wouldn't be pushing hard for John Lackey. I was happy to hear this news, but puzzled when I read on metsblog that 69% of their readers would prefer Lackey to Matt Holliday, assuming a choice between the two. For those of you wanting Lackey, hopefully I can try and account for this gap in fan perception and persuade you otherwise. Remember, Mets fans (who participate in those metsblog polls), you have been wrong before:

The case for John Lackey: In 2009, the Mets had one of the worst rotations in baseball. While injuries decimated the team, the rotation was clearly flawed by design, doomed from the start. John Maine was hardly a sure thing, having not thrown off a mound until the spring. And whether you realized it at the time or not, Oliver Perez, the reigning walk leader, was probably the most overrated starting pitcher in baseball and doomed to be average at best. Sure, he pitched well in 2007, but his ERA was just as much a product of the Mets great outfield defense as it was his comeback (FIP of 4.35). Next season, his walk rate regressed closer to his career mark, his strikeout rate dipped, and his fastball velocity lost a tick. In fact, his 2008 season more closely resembled his (3-13 6.55 ERA) 2006 season than his breakout 2007. Don't believe me?

via statcorner

In fact, the only thing Perez did better in 2008 compared to '06 was throw called strikes, the least important indicator. So what was the difference between 3-13 6.55 and 10-7 4.22? He gave up significantly fewer homeruns in 2008, despite an identical FB%, largely a product of luck. He also had a .288 BABIP, compared to .336 in 2008, which implicates (among other things) a better defense behind him. The better W/L record is entirely a product of playing on the Mets versus the Pirates.

Did I just spend all that time rehashing why people were wrong about Perez to rub it in? No, I understand why Perez was attractive at the time: relatively young, durable, and with good stuff. I bought an Oliver Perez jersey in 2007. The Perez situation, however, demonstrates some key lessons applicable to why I don't want the Mets to spend on Lackey, instead of Holliday. That is NOT to say John Lackey, a very good pitcher, is comparable to Oliver Perez, a very poor pitcher.

Instead, Oliver Perez neatly illustrates why nearly all free agent pitchers get overrated. Most fans have a hard time differentiating a pitcher's performance from his team's fielding. The Earned Run Average statistic has much to do with this; ERA measures how a team's defense performs when a given pitcher is on the mound. Defense includes fielding and pitching. Statistics like tRA and FIP that try and differentiate between these two performances aren't perfect, but are empirically pretty accurate. The conclusion here is not that John Lackey is overrated by his defense, but that he would have posted a worse ERA for the horrible-fielding 2009 Mets than he did on the above-average 2009 Angels.

As an illustration, take the most common argument for John Lackey: "The Mets need a good #2 starting pitcher to complement Johan Santana." Totally reasonable, but has no one asked why this sentiment didn't exist last year, when the Mets had the exact same personnel? Could it be because most fans hoped that Mike Pelfrey with his 3.72 ERA, lower than John Lackey's 2008 and 2007 ERAs, could that solid #2?

In 2009, Pelfrey pitched almost exactly the same as he did in 2008. He even flashed a better slider. His strikeout rate improved. His walk rate went up a little, but he threw a fewer percentage of balls. The main difference? He allowed more homeruns and more hits, basically the anti-2008 Oliver Perez. The Mets infield defense was horrible, and I've beat this dead horse thoroughly by now. Without Reyes, and with an under-performing David Wright and increasingly bad Luis Castillo, Pelfrey's ERA went up because the defense on days he pitched was worse, not him. If Pelfrey had a 3.72 ERA this season, would you vote differently on Holliday/Lackey?

Secondly, Oliver Perez demonstrates that pitchers too often get paid for what they did, not what they're likely to do. Many people, including myself and Matt Cerrone believe Omar Minaya only thinks about what was wrong with last year's team, not what could go wrong next year, when constructing a roster. It's a valid criticism, but is little good, unless we identify high-risk players and situations. Pitchers, in general, are less likely to repeat feats of durability or performances from years before, both because of the injury-risks associated with pitching and the aforementioned factors outside of their control. John Lackey, who gets described with terms like "bulldog" and "workhorse," has come off two straight seasons where he has missed time with conditions such as "elbow strain" and "arm strain." He'll be 32 next year, and while he still pitches very well, he has experienced a yearly drop in swinging strikes since 2005, a potential sign of declining stuff.

Instead of potentially risking another franchise crippling contract, why not pursue Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, and Ben Sheets on a year-to-year basis? All three of those pitchers have poor track records of health, but undeniable stuff. Harden-Bedard combined could reasonably be estimated to provide the same results as Lackey. More importantly, however, with a better fielding, the Mets have some pitchers in-house who might also provide similar results to Lackey.

The case for Matt Holliday: Matt Holliday would go a long way towards helping the Mets defense. He gets a bad rap because of his below-average hands and poor arm, the most notable traits to the average onlooker. These traits are also the least important, however, as a fielder's range most greatly influences the number of hits, and in turn runs, his pitcher allows. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, throughout his career, Holliday's arm has been 15.8 runs below average, his errors have cost virtually no runs compared to the average leftfielder, but his range has been 48 runs above average. The Mets already have Jeff Francoeur's cannon manning rightfield. They could most use a rangy leftfielder to complement Beltran in Citi Field's huge outfield. For another source, check out John Dewan's +/- rank of the best left fielders in 2009:

Offensively, Holliday is elite. Much ado was made about Holliday's home/road splits and how the related to Coors before this season, but Holliday still hit very well, albeit with expectedly fewer homeruns. If anyone still cites his home/road splits, read this:

Players perform better at home than on the road, all else being equal. That's what causes a home-field advantage! Across MLB in 2008, the average home OPS was .770 while the average road OPS was .730.

Holliday's away parks don't include Coors field, while all other National Leaguer players' away parks do. In other words, his away parks lean towards pitching parks, pulling down his numbers.

Using only road numbers ignores more than half of the data we have on Holliday. How is that a good thing? It's a much better idea to use ALL the data available and do a proper park adjustment.

There very well might be a "Coors Hangover Effect". Since breaking balls don't break as much and flyballs are rewarded big time in Coors, Rockies hitters might be hurt on the road because they can no longer count on those advantages. I haven't seen any conclusive studies for or against this theory, but the Rockies do tend to have more extreme home/road winning percentage splits than other teams.

Why are we using career numbers? Why not the most recent seasons? Holliday's road OPS numbers from 2006 through 2008 are .819, .860, and .892. That's an average of .857 and a 5/4/3 weighted average of .863. (Thanks to reader dougdirt who provided #5 in the comments.)

He hit fewer homeruns and linedrives, but still walked a ton and hit for high-average. He's a great hitter, even if he is not the insane hitter he was before. Another argument I've heard against Holliday is that he only started hitting when he got to St. Louis, and that his numbers are the product of one hot streak. This point makes little sense to me, because:

All hitters numbers are reflections of hot and cold streaks throughout the season
St. Louis is a pitcher's park that deflates homers significantly
He had started to hit in Oakland before the trade
Splitting the numbers up like that only makes the sample size smaller and lessens the potential of making a meaningful conclusion

That leaves "AL is harder than NL" which is both overblown and irrelevant if he'll be signing with the Mets.

Conclusion: John Lackey is a very good pitcher and may very well be worth whatever contract he receives. Matt Holliday, however, is younger, carries significantly less injury risk, and helps the entire pitching staff with his fielding. Pitching performances like John Lackey's last year are replicated by plenty of surprising and unexpected players every season (think Joel Piniero). A long-term investment in Matt Holliday solves a gaping hole the Mets have endured in their lineup and fielding alignment for years now.

Five Numbers To Avoid When Evaluating Starting Pitchers

Sam Page — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:00:59 -0000

They are: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Invariably, with the offseason, people start making their fantasy teams, which contain a lineup and a 1-5 starting rotation. During the long winter, these teams find themselves posted all over the internet, usually looking something like this:

this has to hapen........trade fmarn and some b-prosects for roy hallday.......

sign john lacky for 6 yr 90million $$

.....explode oliver perez in2 the sun

1. johan

2. halldaday

3. lackey

4. pelfry

5. niese/maine

champtionship

The Mets certainly need pitching help for next season. According to fangraphs, the pitching staff finished 27th in the majors, one of just 6 with a cumulative WAR lower than Albert Pujols alone. My concern here, however, is how we talk about starting pitchers, not a specific solution. The standard 1-5 ranking makes sense, because the 5-man rotation is the centerpiece of all modern pitching staffs. Discussing specific pitchers, or the construction of a rotation, with this 1-5 rubric, however, holds the discussion back.

First, labeling a pitcher a number is vague and virtually meaningless. Numerous times this season, I suffered through a discussion that began along the lines of "I really thought Pelfrey was going to be a solid number two this season, but now I can see he's just a four, or a three at best." What can we surmise from this assessment? That Pelfrey got worse? That he didn't meet someone's vague expectations? It doesn't describe how he's an average pitcher with decent control who needs to throw his slider more often and is heavily dependent on his defense for game management. It certainly does not talk about how with better up-the-middle infield defense, and a pitching coach that kept him down in the zone, he could put up some pretty nice numbers; or that he has been 4.8 WAR in the past two years. In some ways, this way of talking about a rotation is even worse than talking about wins and losses, since at least wins gives you a general, but very imprecise, sense of where a pitcher stands relative to the league. Besides, what does being a #2 mean when your competition is this group:

Especially in the offseason, the point of accessing a pitcher's value is so that you can compare him to other potential rotation candidates. How deep can a comparison be when everyone is 1-5? We don't compare hitters this way; Albert Pujols is a 3rd-spot hitter, but so is Jose Lopez on his respective team. The inevitable solution is a bunch of equally vague qualifiers like, "Solid 3" or "4 on a good team," which only muddle the picture further.

More importantly, however, the 1-5 ranking is the very framework that has failed the Mets so often. Rotations don't actually go 1-5. Look at the graphic above, which shows eleven pitchers started for the Mets this season, all with varying numbers of innings pitched. For a fanbase that has been so quick to bemoan the lack of depth and forward thinking from the Mets, penciling-in 4. John Maine 5. Jon Niese seems a tinge hypocritical. By putting them down as "the four" and "the five" you are implicitly expecting that they will pitch the fourth and fifth most innings next year and give the fourth and fifth best performances. Anyone who expects John Maine or Jon Niese a lock for over 100 innings next year is nuts. Many fans wrote down 2. Pelfrey and 3. Perez last season and were perfectly happy to do so at the time.

So, when you talk about pitchers, talk about what they contribute to this team, not where they slot in. Also mention any concerns going forward, and the plan if those concerns become real problems.

Elijah Dukes Will Run Through Walls. Washington Nationals 4, New York Mets 3.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' starter J.D. Martin, pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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We've learned two things about Elijah Dukes this year:

1) You don't run on Dukes.

2) Elijah Dukes will run through walls.

If David Wright didn't know that second one already he found out as he came around first and watched Elijah Dukes run full speed into the out-of-town scoreboard in right to rob Wright of a potentially game-tying extra base hit with two out in the top of the ninth tonight in DC's 4-3 win over New York. Dukes' catch gave Mike MacDougal his 18th save in 19 opportunities a half-inning after Washington took the lead with the help of two errors from NY's middle infielders. The Nationals take their second straight over the Mets and set themselves up for the sweep in the last home game of 2009 tomorrow afternoon. (ed. note - "And I'm telling you right now...Teddy Roosevelt will win tomorrow, buy your tickets so you can say you were there...") (ed. note - "The previous opinion is in no way based on facts, just gut feelings, like Riggleman!!")

BACKPAGE:

• Martin v Pelfrey.
• Elijah SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSS!!!! F.O.D.&D. Rejoice! Desmond Does It Too!!!
• Adam Dunn Gets The Beyond The Box Score Treatment.

• Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

• Check Out the SB Nation's NY Mets Blog: Amazin' Avenue OpenThread.

• LINK: Game 157: Enjoy 2B Next Year, Guz..." - Doghouse.

• For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 54-103. (Countdown To 100 Losses, Over For Days Now).

BACKPAGE:

• Martin v Pelfrey. J.D. Martin gets himself in trouble early, giving up a leadoff double to Angel Pagan and letting Luis Castillo reach base on a sac bunt attempt. David Wright walks to loaded the bases and Carlos Beltran walks too to force in the first run. 1-0 NY. Martin gets a line drive to short, a fly ball to short center and an out at second to escape further damage, but he gets right back in trouble in the second. Wilson Valdez doubles to start the frame, moves to second on a sac bunt by the Mets' starter and scores on an Angel Pagan single for a 2-0 lead. David Wright doubles Pagan in, 3-0 Mets.

• Mike Pelfrey retires the first eight batters he faces before allowing a bloop single to the opposing pitcher in the bottom of the third. The Mets' right-hander throws four scoreless for NY, holding DC to just a walk and a single, but the fifth starts with "Pinch Hittin'" Pete Orr singling on an 0-2 fastball up and out over the plate. Ian Desmond's up next and the Nationals' rookie shortstop gets a 1-2 fastball from Pelfrey that doesn't quite make it inside, Desmond explodes on it, launches it to left and GONE!! Two-run HR, 3-2 NY. Two outs later, still in the fifth, Willie Harris and Elijah Dukes hit back-to-back singles and Mr. Gold Glove Himself, the one and only Ryan Zimmerman gets two straight and I mean "straight" fastballs inside, the second of which is lined to left for Zim's 103rd RBI and the 3-3 tie.

• J.D. Martin ends up throwing four scoreless after the rough start, and leaves after 6.0 IP, having given up 7 hits, 3 ER and 2 walks, but the win ends up going to DC reliever Tyler Clippard who throws 2.0 scoreless, the second of which I still can't believe he escaped. Clippard gave up back to back singles to Carlos Beltran and Daniel Murphy, then walked Jeff Francoeur to load the bases with no outs and the score tied at 3-3 tie in the eighth. Former Nationals' catcher Brian Schneider (Call us, Brian?) does Washington a solid by popping out unproductively and pinch hitter Jeremy Reed lines to second, Alberto Gonzalez catches it, throws to first, Francoeur's out, (where was he going?) DOUBLE PLAY!! Clippard's one lucky reliever...

• Mike "Danger" Morse walks with one down in the Nationals' eighth, Justin Maxwell takes over on the basepaths, and pinch hitter Cristian Guzman follows with what should be a double play, but Anderson Hernandez fields at short and tosses one low to Luis Castillo, and right by second, both runners safe. Ian Desmond follows with another DP grounder, Anderson Hernandez gets to it behind second, tosses to Castillo, Castillo fires wide of first and out of Daniel Murphy's reach, Desmond's safe. Maxwell scores from second, 4-3 DC!!

• Top Of Ninth...Mike MacDougal comes on to close it. Cory Sullivan K's swinging. Angel Pagan...singles, (3 for 5), but MacDougal paints the outside corner to get Luis Castillo looking with Pagan still at first. David Wright, works the count full and destroys a 96 mph MacDougal heater. Wright drives it to right, Elijah Dukes sprints toward the wall, and runs into the out-of-town scoreboard as he makes the grab, Dukes bounces of the wall, falls back and rolls to his feet, then jumps up pounding his chest!!! SSSSSUPER DUKESSSS Runs through walls! Nationals win, 4-3 final.

LINK:

• Adam Dunn Gets The Beyond The Box Score Treatment.

Walter Fulbright has an article up at Beyond The Boxscore, the SB Nation's "Saber-Slanted" blog, entitled, "The Two Sides Of Adam Dunn: Graph Of The Day", in which Mr. Fullbright determines that Adam Dunn is, "...still a superstar, just playing out of position because he no longer has one," and recommends that fans, "...start a letter writing campaign to see if we can find the Nationals an American League trading partner." Dunn ranks dead last on Mr. Fulbright's league-wide UZR chart and the BtB writer's description of the nation's capital's favorite first baseman is at odds with most of what I've heard from the DC Faithful:

"Adam Dunn can't hide his failings at the cold corner. Whatever advantage he has for reaching to balls above his head (a pretty low percentage play anyway) are absolutely obliterated by his inability to scoop balls in the dirt, either from throws or from ground balls. He's so completely top heavy that he has an inherent disadvantage to those born with the virtue of just being closer to the ground. This is a pretty definite trend, he has roughly the same power off the bat as when he was 23, only with 60-70 more pounds packed on, his defense has gone from pretty bad to awful to absolutely unacceptable."

Check out Mr. Fulbright's article HERE or in the title link above to see how he reached his conclusions. Let him know what you've seen from Dunn...

GAME REPORT:

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 157 Of 162.

DC right-hander J.D. Martin takes a deep breath, stretching his jaw as he does, then he exhales and fires the first pitch home to Angel Pagan. Pagan ends up doubling to right off the out-of-town scoreboard to start the game with a runner on second. Luis Castillo bunts to third and J.D. Martin cuts Ryan Zimmerman off to field and not throw to first. First and third for David Wright. J.D. Martin walks the bases loaded and goes 3-0 to Carlos Beltran, hitting the outside corner for 3-1 and getting a foul for another full count. Then Martin walks Beltran and walks in a run, 1-0 New York. Daniel Murphy lines toward short, Ian Desmond catches and holds it. Jeff Francoeur flies out to short center, and Willie Harris catches it coming in to hold Castillo at third. Brian Schneider lines to Pete Orr to end the threat with just the walked in run scoring...Willie Harris pops out to left to start the bottom of the first. Mets’ righty Mike Pelfrey gets a weak grounder to third from Elijah Dukes. Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to short.

Wilson Valdez doubles over short to start the second. Mike Pelfrey bunts to Adam Dunn, who can only throw to first. Angel Pagan singles to score Valdez and it’s 2-0 New York with one out in the second. Luis Castillo pops out to left. David Wright doubles off the base of the wall in left, Pagan scores from first, 3-0 Mets. Carlos Beltran grounds out to first, Adam Dunn fields it and hustles to first...Dunn leads off DC’s second with a swinging K on a bender off the plate. Mike Morse grounds out to Wilson Valdez at short. Pete Orr grounds to Castillo at second and it’s 3-0 NY after three.

Willie Harris has to run way into left to catch a line drive off Daniel Murphy’s bat. Francoeur flies out to Elijah Dukes in right. Brian Schneider grounds out to first and Dunn tosses to Martin to end the Mets’ third...Ian Desmond flies out to right field. Mike Pelfrey gets off the mound quickly to field a dribbler toward third and throws a strike to Daniel Murphy at first to get WIl Nieves. J.D. Martin sends a bloop single to center for the Nationals’ first hit. Willie Harris walks. Elijah Dukes rolls the third out to short.

Wilson Valdez grounds out to Pete Orr. Mike Pelfrey’s groundout rolls over the first base bag to Dunn. Angel Pagan sends Mike Morse sprinting back to make an overhead catch for the final out of the Mets’ fourth...Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Wilson Valdez double-pumps and throws to first. Adam Dunn flies out to deep center. Mike Morse grounds out to short, Pelfrey’s got four scoreless.

Willie Harris takes two steps back and catches a line drive off Luis Castillo’s bat. David Wright pulls a bender over third and into left for a one-out double. Carlos Beltran grounds weakly to second. Daniel Murphy flies out to Mike Morse and it’s 3-0 NY after four and a half...Pete Orr smacks a single through short. Ian Desmond goes deeeep to left on a high inside fastball and it’s GONE!!! Two-run HR, 3-2 NY. Wil Nieves grounds out to WIlson Valdez at short. J.D. Martin K’s swinging over a two-strike sinker. Willie Harris sneaks a grounder under a diving Luis Castillo at second. Elijah Dukes singles to center, but Willie Harris holds up at second. Ryan Zimmerman gets a fastball before it gets inside and singles to center to score Harris. 3-3. Adam Dunn grounds out to first, tied after five.

Jeff Francoeur lines to left, Morse misjudges it but hustles back to make a leaping catch. Brian Schneider throws his bat at a fastball and singles to center. Wilson Valdez sends a fluttering line drive out to Willie Harris. MIke Pelfrey flies out to right...Mike Morse grounds out to third. Pete Orr grounds to Daniel Murphy at first. Ian Desmond slides in safe at second on a one-hopper to third that gets by David Wright and rolls out to left. Wil Nieves lines out to right.

Tyler Clippard starts Angel Pagan with three balls and then blows Pagan away. Ian Desmond throws out Luis Castillo. Clippard gets Wright on a called strike three, 3-3 in the seventh...Alberto Gonzalez grounds to Murphy at first. Willie Harris flies out to center. Elijah Dukes grounds one through Pelfrey’s legs for a two-out single. Ryan Zimmerman flies out to right, 3-3 after seven.

Carlos Beltran singles to center to start NY's eighth. Daniel Murphy rips a grounder by Dunn at first, Beltran takes third. Jeff Francouer walks to load the bases for Schneider. Brian Schneider pops out foul of third. Pinch hitter Jeremy Reed hits a broken bat liner to second, Frenchy gets doubled up!!...Adam Dunn K’s and Pedro Feliciano’s out after one batter. Mike Morse vs Sean Green. Morse walks, Justin Maxwell on to run. Cristian Guzman will hit. Guzman grounds to second, Anderson Hernandez tosses it but Castillo at second, both runners safe. Ian Desmond grounds to second, Anderson Hernandez knocks it down, tosses to second, Castillo....throws it wide of first, Maxell scores, Desmond's safe. 4-3 NY. Francisco Rodriguez comes on. Desmond takes third without a throw. Angel Pagan makes an underhand catch on a line out by Alberto Gonzalez.

Mike MacDougal vs Cory Sullivan. Angel Pagan lines off Zimmerman’s glove and into left. Luis Castillo takes a called strike three for out No. 2!!! David Wright flies to deeeep right, Elijah Dukes tracks it and catches it as he hits the wall at full speeeeed. SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSSS!!!!!!!! Sets up the sweeeep!!!!

Nationals now 53-104.

Close But No Cigar: Nationals 4, Mets 3

Eric Simon — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:34:37 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

This play was the Mets' game in microcosm. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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Not a terrible game for Mike Pelfrey. Nine baserunners in seven innings, three runs and just one walk. His groundball rate -- 13-to-6 -- was very strong. As others have pointed out, his season hasn't been as altogether awful as his superficial numbers -- wins, losses, ERA -- might have you believe. He has hardly been superb, but randomness -- and its bullying offspring, bad luck -- has done Pelfrey in with exceeding regularity. This isn't to say that he can't improve himself on his own, but a swing of luck in his favor this season and we'd have far fewer people carping about how disappointing he has been.

In other news, if Carlos Beltran is still injured it doesn't seem to have manifested itself in his on-field performance since his return. I'm not sure if I'm ready to hand him another long-term contract just yet, but his outlook for 2010 has to be considered sunny.

Haiku by Howard Megdal

When bases loaded
kills rallies, grounders booted,
throws sail- time to stop

Dodgers Can Clinch Playoff Spot Today

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Celebration one of five will come soon, perhaps as soon as today.

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The Dodgers today can become the second team in baseball, joining the Yankees, to clinch a playoff spot. However, they need a little help. The Rockies are the wild card leaders, but the Giants and Braves are tied for second. Here are their records:

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	91-60	---
Rockies	86-65	5
Giants	81-70	10
Braves	81-70	10

The Dodgers can clinch a spot in the playoffs today if the following three things happen:

They beat the Nationals
Arizona beats the Giants
The Mets beat the Braves

Here are today's Dodger-relevant pitching matchups:

4:05pm
Dodgers (Chad Billingsley: 12-10, 3.66 FIP) at Nationals (Ross Detwiler: 0-6, 3.75 FIP)

The Dodgers have scored 33 runs in three games against Washington this season.

4:10pm
Braves (Tim Hudson: 1-1, 3.71 FIP) at Mets (Mike Pelfrey: 10-11, 4.33 FIP)

The Braves have won seven straight against the Mets, and 12 of 17 this season.

7:10pm
Giants (Jonathan Sanchez: 6-12, 4.04 FIP) at Diamondbacks (Kevin Mulvey: 0-1, 6.78 FIP)

The Giants won each of the first two series in Arizona this season, two games to one. This series is currently tied at one.

The last time the Dodgers made the playoffs in three out of four years was 1963, 1965, and 1966.