SB Nation - Joe Smith

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:50:04 -0000

The Brewers kept both Alcides Escobar and J.J. Hardy on the bench yesterday so Craig Counsell could play short. Is that enough to get Ken Macha fired?

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Some things to read while running down from the attic to answer the door.

Ryan Braun was out of the lineup yesterday for the second time in seven games, but this time Braun and Ken Macha had their story straight, and referred to it as just an off day. Braun was hit by a pitch in a pinch hit appearance, raising his season total to 12. Plunk Everyone notes that Braun had only been hit 13 times in his first two seasons, and could double his career total in 2009.

Prince Fielder had a rough day yesterday at the plate, but continues to be the focus of speculation regarding offseason trade possibilities. Buster Olney thinks Fielder could be a fit for the Red Sox next season. Tom H. thinks the Brewers would need to get multiple pitchers in return for Prince, and MLB Daily Dish isn't sure where the Red Sox would find the financial flexibility or playing time for him. Meanwhile, Bob Brenly, ever the pompous douchebag, compared his jersey to an infield tarp.

Meanwhile, there's a new J.J. Hardy rumor out there. Prospect Insider is citing "a source close enough to the situation" as saying the Brewers fully expect to trade J.J. Hardy this offseason. That's not really surprising in the least, but it is something like a confirmation of what we expected.

The Brewers may have a roster move to announce before tonight's game: The Contra Costa Times is reporting that Josh Butler, possibly the fastest rising pitcher in the Brewer organization this season, has joined the team in Chicago and is expected to be in uniform today. (h/t Brewerfan.net) Butler could be a candidate to start on Friday if Manny Parra still can't go. Before that can happen, though, the Brewers will have to clear a 40 man roster spot to make room for him. If anyone who's not Corey Patterson is DFA'd, I may break something.

Yovani Gallardo will return to action tonight for the first time since skipping a start last week, and for the first time at Wrigley Field since that thing I'd prefer we didn't talk about. He's looking forward to getting back out there, and Quevedo at the Buffet is looking forward to watching him take on Carlos Zambrano tonight.

Here's something I never, ever would have expected to say: The Brewers can only hope Gallardo's performance tonight will compare to Jeff Suppan's performance last night. Suppan pitched very well despite continued soreness in his oblique which is preventing him from swinging the bat. Suppan bunted with the bases empty in both at bats last night, which is a really puzzling decision...even if he just stood there and took three strikes, he at least would have forced Ryan Dempster to throw six pitches.

Miller Park Drunk has video and a thought-by-thought breakdown of Alcides Escobar making one of this season's greatest defensive plays over the weekend. After Escobar made that play, Ken Macha responded by sitting him on the bench yesterday so Craig Counsell could start at short.

Two weeks ago, I was indifferent on Macha. Now, I'd applaud the move if he were fired today. Macha checks in at #5 on Jon Heyman's list of managers on the hot seat. Heyman also notes that the Brewers have a replacement in waiting in Willie Randolph. If you didn't shudder when reading that, you should have. Dale Sveum is also still on the staff, and at the moment he'd be my first choice.

As great as Felipe Lopez has been as a Brewer over the last couple of months, it feels like there's a new story about his lack of hustle every couple of weeks. Last night he didn't run out a dropped liner that might have changed the complexion of the game in the late innings. Everything Lopez has done this season would suggest he'd be a solid long-term investment, but these little lapses (along with his performance after his last big contract) make him a major candidate to disappoint someone next season.

Mark DiFelice got some good news yesterday, as an MRI showed no structural damage in his sore shoulder. With that said, there's no reason he should pitch again in 2009: The Brewers have more than enough arms in the bullpen, and getting some rest can't possibly hurt at this point.

You'd never guess it by looking at this winter's prospective free agents, but FanGraphs says we're witnessing the golden age of center fielders. And yes, the Brewers started Corey Patterson in center for back to back games during said "Golden Age."

In the minors:

Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases has the OPS leaderboard from the PCL, and Adam Heether checked in at #9 this season, significantly ahead of both Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar.
Brett Lawrie went 1-for-5 with a walk as Team Canada fell to Australia in 10 innings in Baseball World Cup play yesterday. The Canadians are now 0-2 in second round play. (h/t Rattler Radio)

On power rankings and whatnot:

WhatifSports has the Brewers holding steady at #18.
The Sporting News dropped the Brewers one spot to 19th.
Andy Seiler's draft projections have the Brewers picking 12th next June.

Even when they're not winners on the field, the Brewers are winning at the box office this season: Beyond the Box Score has a chart showing that the Brewers are drawing over 40,000 fans per win in 2009, the second highest total in the National League.

Around baseball:

Indians: Placed reliever Joe Smith on the DL with a left knee injury.

I'm working on starting a new trend, feel free to help me out. Every time someone stops by the comments section to complain about strikeouts, I plan on posting the following quote from this Circling the Bases post:

Among all hitters with at least 400 plate appearances this season, the 10 guys who strike out most often have an average OPS of .938 and the 10 guys who strike out least often have an average OPS of .753.

Read it over and over again if you have to.

Yesterday I mentioned that Brewer cleanup hitters (see Fielder, Prince) have the highest OPS in all of baseball. On the other end of that list are the Kansas City Royals, whose cleanup spot is the third worst held by a position player in all of baseball. I'll agree with the theory that most lineup tinkering doesn't create a huge difference, but the Royals are proof that, if you try hard enough, you can really screw it up.

As this season draws to a close, so does the career of Hall of Fame beat writer Hal McCoy. Today's story is about his relationship with Aaron Boone, and how it extended his career. It's worth a few minutes of your time.

On this day in 2007, Prince Fielder hit his 46th home run, setting a new franchise record. The Brewers beat the Reds, 5-3.

And, of course, today is the one year anniversary of the firing of Ned Yost. Celebrate accordingly. This year's parade plans fell through. Instead, I'm planning on leaving something in the toaster until it starts on fire, then attempting to put it out with gasoline. When the police come to investigate the fire I'll tell them, "Toasty really battled today."

I don't have a Brewer birthday today, but isn't the Yost anniversary enough? If you need a birthday, Gaylord Perry is 71.

Drink up.

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

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This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Game 122: Indians 4, Mariners 3 (11 Innings)

Ryan — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 03:18:51 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

3 months ago: Cleveland Indians' Luis Valbuena, top right, is congratulated by teammates after hitting a game-winning solo home run off Seattle Mariners pitcher Randy Messenger in the 11th inning in a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 22, 2009, in Cleveland. The Indians won 4-3. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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After giving up three first-inning runs, Aaron Laffey and the rest of the Indians pitching staff held the Mariners off the board. Aaron had his share of troubles, giving up 10 base runners in his seven innings of work. But he kept the Indians in the game, and when Michael Saunders couldn't catch a relatively routine Luis Valbuena fly ball, the Indians were in a position to tie the game.

The most dramatic change as the season has gone on has been the bullpen's metamorphosis from basket case to a genuinely promising group of young relievers. Chris Perez, who has quickly become the top setup man on the team, recovered after giving up a leadoff double to retire the next three Mariners in the eighth. All three outs (two strikeouts and a fly ball) came with a runner on third. After Wood pitched the ninth, Eric Wedge went with matchup baseball, bringing in Tony Sipp, then Joe Smith, and finally Rafael Perez. Perez has been torched by left-handers this season, gave up a hard-hit single to the left-handed Saunders, but somehow got Ichiro to pop up harmlessly on a 3-0 pitch to end the top of the eleventh.

The Indians finally broke through in the bottom of the inning, when Luis Valbuena hammered a walk-off homer down the right field line.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Hernandez, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

HIghest WPA		Lowest WPA
Luis Valbuena	.509	Jhonny Peralta	-.228
Joe Smith	.230	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.214
Kerry Wood	.143	Shin-Soo Choo	-.148

Game 112: Indians 5, Rangers 0

Ryan — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 02:25:23 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Tony Sipp finished up a great night for Cleveland pitchers.

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Tonight's win was contributed to by elements that until recently hadn't worked at the same time. Those elements (the rotation and the bullpen) have been turned over at least once since the season began, and there aren't many pitchers still in the same position they were at the beginning of the season, with the very good being traded away for prospects and the very bad being sent away for nothing more than the hope that their replacement couldn't be any worse.

Aaron Laffey was not in the Opening Day rotation, but was in and out of the early season staff during those fateful first two months. Now, after an ill-advised move to the bullpen and an injury, he's finally a full-time starter. And the best starter on a rotation that's probably not done turning over. Tonight he ran into some early trouble in the first, but got his ground-ball double play. He also pitched around a one-out Hank Blalock triple in the fourth. Other than that, he cruised through his 6.2 innings. He gave up more fly balls than he usually does, but they generally weren't hit hard. He was helped out in the seventh when Asdrubal Cabrera made two fine plays, both on grounders up the middle.

All the game's runs came in the bottom of the third, and was set up by back-to-back singles by Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera and cashed in by a Travis Hafner single and Luis Valbuena double. Jhonny Peralta also drove in a run by taking a walk, and Trevor Crowe ended the evening's scoring by driving in a run on a sacrifice fly.

After Laffey departed, Joe Smith and Tony Sipp shut down the Rangers in a way that seems foreign to one who's used to watching Indians relievers at work. Smith finally seems to be executing his pitches the same way he did with the Mets, and Sipp looks like he's improved his control enough to bring his slider into play.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Hunter, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Aaron Laffey	.242	Andy Marte	-.055
Shin-Soo Choo	.093	Trevor Crowe	-.044
Luis Valbuena	.091

Game 101: Angels 7, Indians 6

Ryan — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 05:44:58 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

The Indians stayed in the game early thanks to a fantastic defensive play at the plate. Luis Valbuena made a perfect throw from right field, and Victor Martinez lunged to tag Chone Figgins out at the plate.

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The offense continued to churn along, but tonight the eighth inning reared its ugly head yet again. But even despite giving up four runs in the eighth inning, the Indians had a very good opportunity to tie the game in the ninth inning.

David Huff gave up three runs in the third, but thanks to a great defensive play, the damage was limited to just those three runs, and he continued into the eighth inning. After David retired the Angels in order in the seventh, Eric Wedge, seeing the upcoming matchups, sent Huff back out the next inning. At this point Huff had thrown about 100 pitches, and although the bullpen problems have been widely documented, I thought going to the pen was a better risk than to trot back out to the mound a tiring young starter.

Alas, Huff allowed the first two Angels to reach base, setting the stage for a big inning. Joe Smith was called upon with runners on first and second and nobody out, and although he allowed the tying run to score, got a double play to quiet things down. But Tony Sipp, brought on to get the final out in the eighth, walked the first two batters he faced, and then gave up a back-breaking three-run double to Gary Matthews, Jr.

Despite the meltdown, the Indians almost took advantage of an Angels implosion. Brian Fuentes, who has done an excellent job closing games for the Angels this year, for the second night in a row couldn't retire a batter. He walked Andy Marte, gave up a double to Asdrubal Cabrera, a single to Jamey Carroll, and walked Shin-Soo Choo. Angels manager Mike Scioscia removed Fuentes, bringing in Jason Bulger to try to clean up a bases-loaded mess. Victor Martinez was next up, and he grounded into a double play that would not normally be turned on most other major-leaguers. A run scored, but now there were two outs, and Jhonny Peralta would need to drive home the tying run with a base hit. Instead, he hit a grounder to short to end both the game and the Indians' five-game winning streak.

Andy Marte made his 2009 Indians debut tonight, playing first base. Assuming no other major trades happen, he's likely to share playing time with Victor Martinez the rest of the season, and make an occasional start at third. The Indians aren't really looking at his defense, but his hitting, since he has yet to show that he can hit major-league pitching.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Lackey, 3:35 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Shin-Soo Choo	.142	Tony Sipp	-.370
Jamey Carroll	.127	Victor Martinez	-.316
Asdrubal Cabrera	.091	Luis Valbuena	-.092

Game 93: Mariners 5, Indians 3

Ryan — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 21:42:56 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Aaron Laffey got the game into the seventh tied, but the bullpen gave up two runs in the last three innings.

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Watching the Mariners beat the Indians in three games out of four was rather instructive. Seattle doesn't have much of an offense, but because their pitching staff is the best in the league, and despite a lot of errors, has been one of the better teams in turning balls in play into outs, has managed to stick around in the race. The Indians, meanwhile, are pretty good offensively and horrible in everything else, and on track to lose 100 games.

Aaron Laffey was probably a couple hits from being taken out of the game in the first inning. But he got out of the inning giving up just the three runs, and settled down, giving the Indians five shutout innings. I can see a bit of light at the end of the starting pitching tunnel, with Laffey back in the rotation and Jake Westbrook and a supposedly fixed Fauso Carmona on the cusp of joining the Indians. Hopefully there's only a couple Tomo Ohka and/or Jeremy Sowers starts left to endure.

After Laffey left, Joe Smith worked out of a small jam in the seventh. In the eighth, though, Franklin Gutierrez singled off Rafael Betancourt, should have been thrown out at second but wasn't, and eventually scored the go-ahead run on a sacrifice fly. Kerry Wood worked the ninth, and although he got himself into a jam, should have have got out unscathed had Asdrubal Cabrera turned a double play. A couple plays, neither of which were errors, cost the Indians two runs in the last two innings of the game.

Ryan Garko was in the outfield again today. The only explanation I can think of for putting him out there is to showcase him for a trade. Otherwise, why not send down Chris Gimenez and recall Matt LaPorta or even Jordan Brown if you need another outfielder?

Next Up: A trip to Toronto. Lee vs. Cecil, 7:07 PM Tuesday.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Joe Smith	.123	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.200
Ben Francisco	.102	Rafael Betancourt	-.186
Grady Sizemore	.043	Kelly Shoppach	-.125

Game 91: Mariners 6, Indians 2

Ryan — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 03:43:03 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Not enough.

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The Indians weren't going to win this one unless Cliff Lee was pitching, and unfortunately, he can only go every five days. Felix Hernandez, who has for several years now been one of the most talented pitchers in the majors, now seems to have put it all together. Hernandez allowed five hits and a walk in eight innings while striking out 8, and he actually looked better than that line indicates.

Grady Sizemore was responsible in some part for each of the Indians' two runs. In the sixth, he tripled and was driven home by a sacrifice fly. In the eighth he drove home Luis Valbuena from second on a double. Grady's back in the leadoff spot now, and more importantly, he's hitting. If Victor Martinez gets back on track, this could be one of the best offenses on a 100-loss team ever.

David Huff struggled through five innings against a unimpressive lineup, and the guys that relieved him weren't much better. Jose Veras gave up two runs (one earned) in his inning, and Tony Sipp also allowed a run. Chris Perez was a bright spot, for he went through his inning with ease. A reliever has to pan out eventually for this team, right?

Next Up: Washburn vs. Ohka, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Grady Sizemore	.008	Ben Francisco	-.090
Joe Smith	.004	David Huff	-.086
Chris Perez	.004	Jose Veras	-.086

Game 86: Indians 10, White Sox 8

afh4 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:57:15 -0000

More photos » by David Banks - AP

Shoppach hit his first career GS today, which I found sort of surprising.

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The Indians salvaged a win from their series with the White Sox by prevailing in an offensive fireworks show. The Indians hung 9 runs on the White Sox in the first 2.2 innings of play and on the day collected ten walks. Of course, the Indians pitchers weren't much better, as David Huff couldn't do much of anything right as he surrendered 8 runs in just 4.1 innings of work.

Surprisingly, the Indians bullpen actually came to the rescue, finishing out the game without allowing another run. It was probably a "positive regression" game for a couple of guys; I mean, Joe Smith, Wood, Betancourt, these guys probably have some decent runs in them over the next 76 games (or more, depending on how far we advance).

I want to take a moment to speak to David Huff. Mr. Huff, I don't know what your deal is, and I know that some people in these parts think they've detected improvement from you, but, well, this isn't going to suffice. You walk too many batters and you give up too many hits. All I'm saying is that if you don't course correct, you can look forward to the life of Jeremy Sowers. And, despite what Sowers says, that's a miserable life.

If you're looking for me to say something nice, Chuck Lofgren went 7 scoreless today with 6 K's and a BB. However, if Sowers and Huff have taught me anything it's that lefties in the minors need to be examined with a grain of salt.

Next up: Clifton showcases himself against Edwin Jackson, who is arguably having a better season than Cliff. Sigh. 7:05 in Detroit.

Game 69: Cubs 8, Indians 7 (10 Innings)

afh4 — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:02:30 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Kerry Wood goes home, fails.

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When a season is going down the toilet, every loss seems somehow bizarre. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not but today seemed pretty surreal. When the game entered a rain delay in the 8th inning, the Indians were leading 7-2 and Cliff Lee had just left after pitching a good game: his final line was 7.0 IP and 3 ER. The bullpen waited around for the rain to end and then entered and promptly exploded. Joe Smith allowed four runs to cross the plate (one inherited) but, entering the ninth the Indians still led 7-6 with Kerry Wood entering the game. Before the season there was a lot of ink (much of it my own) devoted to building an instant mythology for Kerry Wood and, frankly, it all looks wasted right now. Wood blew his third save of the season when he surrendered a game tying solo shot to Derek Lee.

From there, it seemed almost routine when the Indians lost in the tenth with Luis Vizcaino on the mound. The fact that Wood wasn't used in a couple of close and late situations over the last two games has raised some ruckus among fans and I suspect that the fact that Wood was only good for one inning today, despite having not pitched in five days, will cause the same kind of clamor. However, I'm not sure it should; maybe Wedge just isn't confident in Wood. Why should he be? His numbers are hardly any better than Greg Aquino's and Aquino just got cut.

As has been typical lately, the bullpen's seppuku act covered up some great offense. The Indians' touched up Rich Harden for 7 runs in five innings, including a 2-5 day for Jhonny Peralta (including an improable triple) and homeruns out of Martinez and Valbuena. In his last 53 plate appearances, Luis is showing serious signs of life with 4 doubles and 7 walks. He still has a lot of work to do but early returns are encouraging.

It's funny, five or so weeks ago it was obvious the season was over because of the bullpen; then, suddenly, that seemed not obvious. Now, that seems obvious again.

The Breakdown: April 6-19

Jay — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:41:10 -0000

Record: 4–9
Overall: 4–9
Scoring: 83–87
Old Mood: 6.2
New Mood: 2.6

	W	L	%	GB
Chicago	7	5	.583	-
Detroit	7	5	.583	-
Kansas City	7	5	.583	-
Minnesota	7	7	.500	1.0
Cleveland	4	9	.308	3.5

@ Texas: Lost 9-1, Lost 8-5, Lost 12-8
Toronto: Lost 13-7, Lost 5-4, Won 8-4
@ Kansas CIty: Lost 4-2, Lost 9-3, Won 5-4
@ New York: Won 10-2, Lost 6-5, Won 22-4, Lost 7-3

"The Breakdown" is a summary of the club's performance and major developments over a two-week period, and it will appear on Monday or Tuesday, every other week. At any given moment, we tend to be viewing the season mostly in two timeframes — the first being the last 48 hours, today's game and maybe yesterday's, and the whole season cumulatively from the beginning. The most accessible stats we look at reinforce this point of view — all the main stat pages are showing season-to-date, and we check out the box score to see what happened yesterday. In doing so, we miss a lot of the ebb and flow of the season for the team, and especially for individual players. We patch together vague narratives later on, much of it from inaccurate memories — "Peralta was blocked by Cora," "Francisco was amazing last year" — only occasionally making note of anything in a context larger than a day or two, and missing many in-season developments entirely. It's my hope that the two-week context will produce less emphasis on fluke performances and give more of a sense of in-season trends developing for each player.

THE BIG STORY: The club pitched very badly and lost a bunch of games as a result. The club was outscored 42-21 in the first four games and lost a squeaker in the fifth. Over the next eight games, the club went 4-4 and outscored opponents 58-40, but of course that 18-run margin is only due to one game. With several blowouts in both directions, what record should this team have? In attempt to figure that out, I lined up all 13 games in order of our runs scored, and then lined them up again according to our runs allowed. Here's what those two lined look like when placed one atop the other, like a scoreboard:

INDIANS	22	10	8	8	7	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	1
"cowboys"	13	12	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	4	4	4	2

Note that while the average score of these games was 6.7 to 6.4, the median score was 6–5 (favoring the opposition in both cases). This is actually fine for the offense, who are on their way to being one of the league's best offenses either way. It isn't so fine for the pitching. If you look at it this way, the Indians arguably deserve only a 1–10–2 record, or 2–11 if we split the ties. The Pythagorean record is 6–7, based on the 83–87 run differential. Or we could just toss out the highest and lowest totals from each line — the extreme outliers — which would give us a run differential of 60–72. Bottom line, I think this is one case where the actual record of 4–9 more or less reflects the team's quality of play.

First, the starters.

Games 1-3: 22 ER in 11 IP — 18.00 ERA, 3.7 innings per start
Games 4-9: 22 ER in 31.2 IP — 6.25 ERA, 5.3 innings per start
Games 10-13: 9 ER in 23 IP — 3.52 ERA, 5.8 innings per start

What we're seeing here is mainly that Lee, Carmona and Pavano have all shown some degree of progression from their trio of tranwrecks in Arlington, to merely poor showings against Toronto and K.C., to a very fine showing in New York. Note that the starters allowed as many runs in the first three games as in the next six, in about one-third the number of innings. Even when the club was 0–5, track records suggested that the rotation was going to iron itself out — even Pavano, who has always been a reasonably effective starter when healthy. I don't know what the deal was in that first start, but if he wasn't injured — and it appears he wasn't — then it appears that that was, you know, just one of those flukey, terrible days. Pavano might not make many starts, but for those who have read the back of his baseball card and not just the back page of the Post, he really has little in common with Jason Johnson. Pavano is much more a part of our injury risk than our performance risk, and Carmona may well emerge as the more intractable problem in the rotation. While we have the rotation depth to absorb a few injuries and burnouts here and there, asking our Parade of Filler to cover the #2 spot in the rotation as well seems like too much of a stretch.

Still, the starters have generally and unsurprisingly begun to make their journey back to reasonable run prevention and lasting a reasonable number of innings, and outside of Arlington, the rotation has really not been terrible — but the bullpen has. Did a bunch of extra innings really stress our best middle relievers into being terrible, or is this just another, horrifying example of the unpredictability of relievers? One would think that in a series of blowouts, the extra work burden would fall upon the fifth, sixth and seventh guys in the bullpen, yet Kobayashi, Jackson and Smith are not the ones who have struggled — not by a longshot. Perez, Betancourt and Lewis have pitched a grand total of 21 innings. If we expected them to go 210 IP on the season — 70 IP each — then by now, they should have thrown about 17 IP. Did those extra 4 IP really push them over the brink from being good to being terrible?

I'm not buying it, and I'm sorry to say, the truth is probably worse. These guys are simply struggling, as all but the most elite relievers sometimes do, and they may or may not be able to straighten themselves out. I'm not saying that the rotation's disastrous performance against the Rangers didn't start the season on an off-kilter note, but whatever is wrong with our nominal "setup men" may not be fixed by a stabilized rotation. The Indians rotation and lineup generally have performed like a 90-win team over nearly all of the last four seasons of play, with the bullpen's high-leverage performances representing bulk of the difference between 78 and 97 wins more often than not. It's only a handful of innings, and only half our bullpen looks broken for the moment, but it's a troubling way to start regardless.

We have given 3.5 games of ground in a season where our projectable talent gave us a margin of five or ten wins over our rivals. We have, in essence, turned a solidly favorable season into a projected dogfight in the space of just two weeks.

IN OTHER NEWS: Travis Hafner shocked and delighted Indians fans with a full-on 2006-esque assault on opposing pitchers, at one point smacking three doubles and three home runs over just five games. While this proves nothing (and settles no argument about his contract), his early outburst is very unlikely (less than 10% probability) if Hafner's true skill level is merely at his 2007 level, and profoundly unlikely if he's really no better now than he was a year ago. We probably can never stop worrying about his shoulder problems, which obviously can reduce him to a useless player if he's ever re-injured. But at least there is now significant evidence that apart from health issues, he's still something of a Scary Monster — and considering how little evidence of that we'd seen over the past 32 months, that's definitely big news.

Scott Lewis looked good for a few innings but went down with an arm injury, and he evidently was not disclosing arm pain to the club after winning a rotation spot in spring training. Aaron Laffey returned to claim his rightul spot in the rotation and looked pretty good in his first start.

Finally, the Indians had the pleasure of spoiling the grand opening of New Jackass Stadium, handing the Yankees an embarrasssing 10–2 drubbing in their home debut, which was also the home debut for C.C. Sabathia, who is something of a New Jackass Stadium himself. The Indians hammered the Yankees 22–4 just two days later, including a record-setting 14-run second inning. Yankees fans seethed as Sizemore and Cabrera smacked the first two grand slams in their new ballpark, while Carl Pavano had the temerity to show up his old club with a quality start, and Justin Chamberlain provided more evidence that the Indians simply have his number. The Indians outscored the Yankees by 21 runs, adding to concerns that the stadium's best seats are unsaleable, while some kind of jet-stream effect seemed to turn soft flyballs to right-center into home runs with alarming regularity. It was, all in all, not the debut the Yankees were looking for, and despite emerging with merely a split in the four-game series, it certainly felt like a series win.

WHO FED IT: Victor Martinez exploded out of the box, thriving in his new split-role at 1B and C. Not only was his overall .358/.435/.642 line uniformly stellar, he hardly has had a single bad day so far, producing an OPS of 983 or better in each of the four series played. Asdrubal, on the other hand, started off with a pair of O-fers but has an insane 1130 OPS over the last ten games. (He's still young and could still have some setbacks, but if you told me he was going to make the next five All-Star Games, I wouldn't call you crazy.) Sizemore (959) and Choo (953) both picked up right where they left off in 2008 (aside from a couple of troubling defensive miscues by Choo), and Shoppach (870) and even Garko (914) are making the best of a time-sharing arrangement. Hafner led the club with a .667 slugging average.

Joe Smith more or less wowed us with sidearming goodness, striking out four and allowing just one run over his first 17 batters. He also induced six groundballs and stranded four out of five inherited runners. Masa Kobayashi, a ticking DFA bomb by nearly all accounts, came up big in 6.2 IP and now leads the club with both his 1.35 ERA and his 1.05 WHIP, as 27 opposing batters managed just two singles and a double. Chulk and Laffey also made nice debuts. Kerry Wood lived up to his billing by striking out 7 of the 13 batters he faced. He allowed three of the first five batters he faced to reach base in his first game as an Indian, but he hasn't allowed a baserunner since. Absolute best: Victor. Relative best: Hafner. Lots of folks subscribe to the under-600-over-900 theory on Hafner, and among those, lots of those would have predicted under-600 if forced to make a choice. Relative to reasonable expectations, Hafner's performance over his first 10 games is a shocker.

WHO ATE IT: The entire rotation, led by Carmona and Pavano. Perez was twice as awful as completely terrible -- by which I mean, Jensen Lewis was completely terrible with a 8.10 ERA, and Perez was twice as awful at 16.71. Ben Francisco has been one of the game's worst position players this side of Cody Ransom, combining a .368 slugging average, a 4.7% walk rate, and too often looked like he was playing left field for the first time in his life. Absolute worst: Carmona, but Perez is close. Relative worst: Perez.