SB Nation - Ambiorix Burgos

While You Were Out: Amazin' Avenue Week In Review (9/6-9/12)

James Kannengieser — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 02:00:42 -0000

David Wright's home run yesterday overtook Omir Santos's Papelbon shot for the most valuable plate appearance of the year, according to WPA. For a day it felt like September 2006 again. Here are this week's posts:

Amazin' Avenue Citi Fieldguide - kingcritical put together an extensive guide to the Mets' home which we hope can be an ongoing community project.
Omir Santos, Model - Oh hey there Omir.
Hyperbole Alert - Sam picks apart Jayson Stark's "anonymous baseball source" Mets dis.
The Traffic Growth Of Amazin' Avenue - Traffic has increased as the Mets have tanked. Great work by Eric and everyone in the community.
Place Your Bids: The Citi Field Silent Auction - For just $50 you can own an Ambiorix Burgos game-worn jersey!
Is The World Baseball Classic To Blame? - Eric examines the possible effect playing in the WBC had on various Mets this season. For my take on Mets participating in the WBC, I'll defer to Keith Hernandez:

I would not have played [in the WBC]. I would not have risked it. I’m getting paid to play for the New York Mets and I just think that’s what you’re paying me for.

SBNation.com Is Fully Operational - Congrats to the SBN head honchos for making this happen.
Mike Pelfrey's Worst Nightmare - I look at one major reason why Mike Pelfrey seems to be having such a bad season.
Friday Hodgepodge - I tackle some of the week's events, including a Jeff Pearlman Mets post and Murray Chass taking Jayson Stark to task.
Baseball After 9/11 At Shea - Video from the documentary "Nine Innings From Ground Zero", chronicling the first baseball game in New York City after 9/11. This is my favorite Mets moment ever and probably always will be. Thanks for making that night special Mike Piazza.
Jeff Francoeur: I Wanna Be A Nashville Star - Imagine the uproar if Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran said something like this?
This Week In Mets Quotes - Sokojoe channels FootballOutsiders.com and hits us with TWIMQ.

Prospect Retro: Brian Bannister

John Sickels — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Brian Bannister delivers during the second inning of a baseball game against the Seattle Mariners, Thursday, May 7, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Kansas City won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Prospect Retro: Brian Bannister

Brian Bannister was drafted by the New York Mets in the seventh round in 2003, out of Southern Cal. He was successful in college and well-known to scouts due to his family background, being the son of Floyd Bannister, the David Price of 1976. Floyd was a decent pitcher who never quite lived up to expectations. His son didn't have the same kind of arm strength, but Brian was considered extremely polished. He pitched well in the New York-Penn League after signing, posting a 2.15 ERA with a 42/18 K/BB in 46 innings and allowing just 27 hits. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book, noting his strong curveball and feel for pitching but also noting his mediocre fastball.

Bannister began 2004 with St. Lucie in the Florida State League, going 5-7, 4.32 with a 106/27 K/BB in 110 innings, allowing 111 hits. He held his own after a late promotion to Double-A, going 3-3, 4.06 in eight starts with a 28/17 K/BB in 44 innings, 45 hits allowed. Note how his strikeout rate dropped at the higher level. Despite this I gave him another Grade C+, projecting him as a useful fifth starter or long reliever.

Bannister began '05 in Double-A and made adjustments, going 9-4, 2.56 with a 94/27 K/BB in 109 innings with 91 hits allowed. Logically promoted to Triple-A, he continued to perform well with a 4-1, 3.18 mark in eight starts with a 48/13 K/BB in 45 innings, 48 hits. His strikeout rate was moving upward, and he was now getting attention as a sleeper prospect in the baseball press. I continued to rate him as a Grade C+ prospect and future inning-eater.

Bannister began 2006 in the Mets rotation after a strong spring training. A pulled hamstring sent him back to the minors and he ended up splitting the season between the Mets (38 innings, 4.26 ERA, 19/22 K/BB), Triple-A Norfolk (30 innings, 24/5 K/BB, 3.56 ERA) and St. Lucie (two starts). The Mets gave up on him at that point and shipped him to Kansas City for a better arm, Ambiorix Burgos. Remember him?

Burgos had a better arm, but Bannister was the better pitcher. He went 12-9, 3.87 with a 77/44 K/BB in 165 innings for the Royals in '07, allowing 156 hits and being one of the best rookie pitchers in the game. Statheads, however, were frightened of his very low strikeout rate, warning that he was likely to go backwards in '08.

Bannister, however, is a stathead himself and was well aware of the fact that strikeouts indicate potential for future success. He adjusted his approach in '08, and indeed he did strike out more guys last year, posting a 113/58 K/BB in 183 innings and increasing his K/9 from 4.2 to 5.6. However, it didn't help the results: his ERA jumped to 5.76 and he went 9-16. The main difference was a sharp increase in his hit rate (10.6 H/9 vs. 8.5 in '07) and more home runs given up.

Did Bannister just have bad luck on balls in play last year, or was the league genuinely catching up to him? From watching him pitch a lot, I think it was a combination of both factors, actually. . .he had worse luck, but he also seemed to hang more pitches high in the strike zone at bad times. He seems to have turned things around this year, 4.17 ERA with a 47/25 k/BB in 78 innings, 78 hits allowed. His WHIP is 1.33, compared to 1.21 in '07 and 1.49 last year, right in between. His K/9 is 5.42, not quite as high as last year but better than '07.

Because he doesn't have plus velocity, Bannister will live on the margins, but his intellect and feel for pitching give him an edge in adaptability and survival. As a minor leaguer, he showed the same ability to adapt that he's shown in the majors. While I don't think he's going to have a hugely successful career, he could be an average starter and eat innings for several years, and that has value.

Bullpen Options on the Free Agent Market

Jesse — Wed, 06 May 2009 12:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

7 months ago: Minnesota Twins' pitcher Joe Nathan points to catcher Joe Mauer as he celebrates the final out as the Twins beat the Kansas City Royals 7-5 in a baseball game Friday, May 1, 2009 in Minneapolis. Nathan picked up the save. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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A short list, examining a few pitchers who are without homes.

While starting pitching hasn't exactly been stellar, the difference in talent available between the rotation and the bullpen is something more than marginal. With the exception of Joe Nathan, there are no irreplaceable parts; and only Matt Guerrier owns the only other acceptable bullpen performance. Jose Mirjares may join those ranks, but after just 4.2 innings with the Twins so far I'm not counting any chickens.

Going into Tuesday night's game with the Tigers, the Twins bullpen had thrown 72.1 innings...or just over 31% of the staff's innings. This means that for every nine-inning game, the bullpen is picking up about 2.2 innings with the starters responsible for 6.1. For how much flack this rotation has had in regards to not going long enough, to this point on the whole they haven't been horribly short either. Could they go longer? Absolutely. But they aren't forcing Ron Gardenhire to stretch his bullpen too much. Only two bullpens in the American League, Kansas City (a much better bullpen than ours) and Los Angeles (a much worse bullpen than ours), have thrown fewer innings.

In spite of what I'd call a manageable workload, the Twins 2009 bullpen has posted a 5.72 ERA in those 72.1 innings. They're fairly middle of the road in terms of strikeout rates, walk rates, base runners and opponent OPS (giving a reason why the traditional ERA is so much higher than FIP, at 4.88), but they're clearly struggling in terms of run prevention. Only four bullpens in all of baseball strand fewer base runners than the Twins.

There are internal options to consider. But who is still on the market, and is there anyone that could lend a bit of credibility, reliability and an air of confidence to our relief corps?

The Intriguing Bullpen Free Agents

Ambiorix Burgos

We'll start with the positives. Burgos is 25, throws heat in the mid-90's, has a penchant for strikeouts and has stranded three quarters of his base runners in his MLB experience. That's the good news.

The bad news is that, like everyone else on this list, there are reasons these guys are still free agents. Burgos has had issues with control in the past, and I'm not just talking about being inconsistent around the strike zone. He was arrested and later convicted of assaulting his girlfriend late in 2008, just one month into a rehab stint following some time off for Tommy John surgery. There's a reason this guy hasn't been tendered a contract, and I'm not comfortable with the Twins being the team who gives him a second chance.

Keith Foulke

Didn't he retire? He's not listed as retired. Foulke had an alright year in Oakland in 2008, but he was king of the gopherball. Besides, a marginal 36-year old whose fastball may or may not win a race to the plate in competition with a fastball from Livan Hernandez isn't the answer.

Aquilino Lopez

Lopez is a 34-year old right-hander with a 3.78 ERA in 270.1 innings. He'll strike a few guys out while walking a few. Good history of stranding base runners, does a fairly good job of keeping the ball in the park and for the most part doesn't profile as a horrible pitcher. The Korean Baseball Organization realized this and the Kia Tigers signed him back in January.

Converting A Starter?

Those were aren't all of the free agent bullpen arms, but there really aren't any truly good options. If the Twins want to improve their bullpen via free agents, perhaps their best option is to convert a starter?

Pedro Martinez

Sure, Pedro wants $5 million. But it's not like teams are lining up to sweep him off his expensive feet. He's an injury risk, possibly a character risk if he feels he isn't being used appropriately and obviously a financial risk, but what if he's not opposed to a few months audition as a set-up man? Being able to let it all go for an inning may give him a bit more pop, and a strikeout threat in the bullpen is always a good thing. Unfortunately, even if he would be willing to step into a bullpen role as a way to get back onto a roster, he'd want to play for a contender. Right now, that label excludes the Twins.

Conclusions

With Jesse Crain back back and Mijares showing good signs of life, coupling them with Guerrier and Nathan make for the beginnings of a decent bullpen. Getting Craig Breslow's confidence back would be another boost. But it doesn't matter how we look at it, right now this is a bullpen in a state of 9-1-1.

Free agent options are available, but right now the more feasible and realistic options are all in Rochester. Even once those options are considered and exhausted, a trade would be more likely than the signing of a Martinez or a Burgos.

Of course in a happy world, the guys we have just get it together. It's hard to be as bad as the Twins have been, and to continue to be as bad as they've been, even with the collection of arms they've assembled.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 15:02:28 -0000

Some things to read while searching for top shelf material.

The biggest news from yesterday is the trade sending Eric Fryer to the Yankees for Chase Wright. Finally, a little depth has been added for the starting rotation. Tom H. has quotes from management on what they see/expect from Wright, and there's reason to believe he can contribute. Both The Grand National Championships and View From Bernie's Chalet like the move.

Also noted in the Tom H. link above: The Brewers signed Ramiro Mendoza to a minor league deal. Mendoza hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, but posted a sub-2.00 ERA in Venezuela this winter and will pitch for Panama in the World Baseball Classic. All told, he's probably ticketed for AAA, but he's another veteran with starting experience, so worse moves have been made.

If you didn't catch Jeff's post from last night on starting pitching depth, scroll down, read it now, and come back to the Mug later. I'd rather have Odalis Perez, but Bernie's Crew thinks the Brewers should have pursued John Parrish.

Meanwhile, Corey Hart's arbitration hearing continues to creep closer. Pocket Doppler thinks a lot of Brewer fans are reacting negatively to Hart because of his comments in September on fans booing. This quote, which has been making the rounds lately but I most recently mentioned in Saturday's post on Hart, is a much bigger source of concern for me:

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We’re trying to see pitches and see what we can do. … I’m not going to sit there and walk, though. I’ll eventually find it, and hopefully we’ll still be in it." -Corey Hart

With 286 votes in, 23% of readers share my concern - that Hart's lack of plate discipline has led pitchers to figure him out. 30% think he'll post an OBP around .300 again in 2009. Hart's demands are a pretty steep price to pay for a guy who projects at that level.

Just one minor note today: Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel made USA Today's list of 100 players you should know coming into 2009.

If you read the Mug frequently, you've probably guessed that I wish the Brewers still had Gabe Gross. If you share that sentiment, you can re-live his last game as a Brewer tomorrow on MLB.com.

I'm reluctant to even bring it up, because even he admits it's not worth my time, but The Furious Wedge has responded to some of the commenters from his prediction post I linked on Tuesday. I won't burn too much time on it, except for this quote regarding Tony Gwynn:

I've watched A LOT of baseball. I've seen Tony Gwynn about 6 times and every time, he was, to me, clearly one of the two best players on the field.

Clearly, this is the biggest possible indictment of the 2008 Nashville Sounds.

Is a story still news when it happens every day? Jon Heyman is reporting a previously unmentioned team has interest in a Scott Boras client. In this case, it's the Rangers and Andruw Jones. Lone Star Ball lists the reasons why this move would make no sense for the Rangers. Earlier this week, Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts discussed the relationship between Boras and Heyman.

On the hot stove:

Blue Jays: Claimed LHP Brian Burres off waivers from the Orioles.
Padres: Have reportedly agreed to terms with Cliff Floyd.
Rangers: MLB.com beat reporter TR Sullivan doesn't expect the team to sign Ben Sheets.
Rockies: Acquired Matt Murton from the A's for minor league infielder Corey Wimberly. They're also reportedly out of the running for Joe Beimel and Braden Looper.

If you've been following the links to FanGraphs the last couple of days, you've probably seen estimations that replacement level catchers, first basemen, second basemen and shortstops all fall somewhere between 1.5 and 2 wins below average. Today, we have third base (-1.5 wins) and left field (-2 wins), and they both fall into the same range.

Even in this market, apparently a bad contract is available to those who will look for it: Driveline Mechanics thinks the Mets made a mistake giving 3 years, $36 million to Oliver Perez.

As I've mentioned before, I live in Iowa, well out of the range of FSN Wisconsin but still within the Brewers' "local market," so I haven't been able to watch a national broadcast of a Brewer game at home for several seasons, just games with the Cardinals and the occasional Cub game on WGN. I had high hopes for plans to rework the blackout policy this winter, but the movement to do so has been tabled indefinitely. Thank you, Major League Baseball, for one again making it harder for me to watch your product.

On a somewhat related note: Tangotiger wants to know what you think Bud Selig should make. There are two interesting points being made in the discussion: First, Selig is effectively the CEO of a corporation worth over $15 billion dollars. But, secondly, there are probably also a fair number of people out there who would gladly take his job for less money and perform at his level. Some might be significantly better.

Of course, Selig is nowhere near the top of the charts in the running for worst person ever: Former Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos, currently facing charges for two murders stemming from a hit-and-run accident, allegedly tried to shoot another player yesterday in response to a dispute over a game of dominoes. Joe Posnanski tells a related story about Burgos' departure from Kansas City.

Things are looking up for the Washington Nationals, but only because they couldn't go any farther down: In October the Nationals were given 300:1 odds to win the 2009 World Series. Yesterday, those odds were upgraded to 150:1. (The Brewers, by the way, are 35:1.)

Finally, as a former organizer who certainly managed his share of failed events (hence the former), I still occasionally have nightmares that go something like this one: The Marlins held an event on day 1 of their Winter Caravan, and no one came.

Drink up.