SB Nation - Chad Billingsley

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

Dodgers Waste Golden Opportunity, Decline Arbitration For Wolf, Hudson

Eric Stephen — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:14:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Randy Wolf tries to emulate the feelings of Dodger fans today

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I don't know what to say anymore.

The Dodgers declined to offer arbitration to all seven of their Type A and Type B free agents today, most notably Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. This means the Dodgers will receive no compensation if any of the free agents sign elsewhere.

I already covered the reasons for and/or against offering arbitration, and I expected to be disappointed today. But not to this extent. On some level, I can understand the argument for not offering arbitration to Hudson, even if I don't fully agree with it. However, not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is just wrong. Wolf is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and is sure to get a multi-year offer somewhere, so he would have likely declined arbitration.

In Wolf and Hudson, the Dodgers had two players that should be welcomed back if they chose to accept arbitration, and they only would be signed to one-year deals. Sure, they might be a tad pricey, but both provide value at or exceeding their worth, and again, it would just be for one year, and only if they accepted arbitration. Could it be that the Dodgers are so strapped for cash that they can't accept even the slightest risk of paying two talented players for one season?

Or is it worse than that? Do the Dodgers not want the burden of having four extra draft picks in 2010, the burden of four extra signing bonuses, possibly totaling somewhere in the $4 million range?

What other excuse could there be besides money? Because if this were strictly a baseball decision, both Wolf and Hudson would have been offered arbitration.

These are short-sighted moves by the Dodgers. Look at this team. The 2009 Dodgers only had the best record in the National League, and they were fueled by a young group of players once drafted by the Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier (OK, he was drafted by the A's), Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, James Loney, Russell Martin. Unfortunately, you can't continue the process of integrating fresh, new talent into the mix if you don't have the picks to draft them, or if you don't utilize the ones you have. The Dodgers may have potentially saved some money with today's decisions, but they missed a golden opportunity to invest in the future.

It is now apparent to me that general manager Ned Colletti's hands are tied by purse strings. He will have his work cut out for him this offseason, which seems like it could be a long one for Dodger fans.

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:55:11 -0000

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story, THT compares WAR to Win Shares. THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares

Player	Win Shares
Matt Kemp	26
Andre Ethier	21
Orlando Hudson	20
Casey Blake	19
James Loney	18
Manny Ramirez	18
Rafael Furcal	17
Russell Martin	16
Jon Broxton	16
Randy Wolf	14
Juan Pierre	12
Clayton Kershaw	12
Chad Billingsley	9
Ramon Troncoso	8
Ronaldo Belisario	7
Hiroki Kuroda	5
Jeff Weaver	5
G Mota	4
Hong-Chih Kuo	3
Mark Loretta	3
James McDonald	3
Brad Ausmus	3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Order	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Shares
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	2nd	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	3rd	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	4th	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	T-5th	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	T-8th	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1979	22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman

Player	TWS	Pos
Garvey, Steve	223	1st
Karros, Eric	175	1st
Parker, Wes	146	1st
Murray, Eddie	68	1st
Loney, James	51	1st
Brock, Greg	47	1st
Hodges, Gil	37	1st
Garciaparra, Nomar	29	1st
Farily, Ron	142	1st/OF
Mike, Marshall	108	1st/OF
Buckner, Billy	80	1st/OF
Larker, Norm	35	1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin	34	1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Pos	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1979	22
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1989	21
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1977	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1963	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1962	21
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1999	20
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1996	20
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1965	20
Garciaparra, Nomar	1st	29	2006	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2002	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1997	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1971	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1969	18
Loney, James	1st	51	2009	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1966	17
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1964	17
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1959	17
Loney, James	1st	51	2007	16
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1991	16
Loney, James	1st	51	2008	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1985	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1983	15
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1982	15
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1967	15
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1961	15
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2000	14
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1972	14
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1960	14
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1992	13
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1981	13
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1968	12
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1958	12
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1973	11
Buckner, Billy	1st	80	1973	11
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1993	10
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1987	9
Brock, Gregg	1st	47	1986	9
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2001	8
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1984	8
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1959	8
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1994	7
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1958	7
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1988	6
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1961	6
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1961	5
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1959	5
Loney, James	1st	51	2006	3
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1964	3
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1960	3
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1958	2

Don't Give Up On Billingsley Yet

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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Over the last couple of days, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts has dived head first into the shark infested waters otherwise known as discussion of Chad Billingsley. For some reason, Billingsley is a lightning rod among Dodger fans, almost the third rail of team discussion. It seems he is either loved or hated, with little room in between.

We all know Billingsley's 2009 didn't end the way anyone would have wanted it. After an All-Star start to his season, Billingsley went 3-8 with a 5.21 ERA and 4.58 FIP since the middle of June. He ended up not even making a playoff start. The only other Dodger starting pitcher in history to make an All-Star team yet not start in the postseason in the same year was Brad Penny in 2006, who was nursing a back injury that year.

To me, the most important thing to note is that the book on Chad Billingsley is not finished; it is still being written. Considering Billingsley turned 25 in 2009, there are likely many more chapters in that book.

Let me know if this story sounds familiar:

Former club leader in wins struggles in the second half
Struggling pitcher gets left off the playoff roster for his team
In fact, pitcher was sent to the minors during his struggling period

This sounds an awful lot like Chad Billingsley (minus the sent to the minors part), but in fact this was the case of Cliff Lee, with the Indians in 2007. Lee turned 29 that year, four years older than Billingsley is now. Here is a look at the career stats as starters for these two pitchers at the fork in the road point of their careers:

Player	Years	Ages	Starts	IP/GS	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB	ERA	ERA+	FIP	WHIP
Cliff Lee	2002-2007	23-28	125	5.89	9.27	1.27	3.11	6.64	2.14	4.63	94	4.63	1.375
Chad Billingsley	2006-2009	21-24	100	5.89	8.20	0.78	4.11	8.17	1.99	3.50	121	3.84	1.368

Billingsley holds up pretty well in this comparison to Lee. Now ask yourself, who is more likely to improve -- a 25-year old or a 29-year old? The Indians didn't give up on Lee, and all he did was win the Cy Young in 2008 and put up a 1.56 postseason ERA in five starts for the Phillies in 2009.

I'm not telling you to put your money down on Billingsley for the 2010 NL Cy Young award, but it wouldn't be out of the question. Billingsley still has time and room to improve, but his established baseline is already pretty good. To think otherwise is foolish.

That said, the Dodgers currently have a need for another starting pitcher, maybe two. Roy Halladay, who might be traded out of Toronto, is the name most sought out by many. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested last week that Billingsley, among others, would have to be included in any Dodgers' trade for Halladay. Don't get me wrong, Halladay would be a huge upgrade over Billingsley in 2010, but why should the Dodgers have to give up one of their best players to get Halladay? The Phillies gave up minor leaguers to get Cliff Lee in 2009, and the Mets did the same to get Johan Santana in 2008. If the Dodgers want to acquire Halladay (I don't think they will, due to budget constraints), history suggests they shouldn't have to part with Billingsley at all.

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

Dodgers pursuing Roy Halladay

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:05:53 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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USA Today is reporting that the Dodgers are very interested in acquiring Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. The Dodgers lack a true ace, and feel that Halladay would solve their problems in the rotation.

However, the Dodgers lack depth in their farm system, and would probably have to bring in a third team to make a deal happen.

The Dodgers could try to include Russell Martin in the deal, but may not be willing to include, say, Andre Ethier or Clayton Kershaw.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests Chad Billingsley would likely have to go in the deal.

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay to the Dodgers for Chad Billingsley??

raygu — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:15:20 -0000

More photos » by Fred Thornhill - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay throws against the Seattle Mariners during first-inning AL baseball game action in Toronto, Friday, Sept. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Fred Thornhill)

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The Dodgers were rumored to be in on the Roy Halladay trade talks last July, but ended up bolstering their bullpen instead by trading for George Sherrill. Now comes this tweet from Bob Nightengale from the USA Today:

#mlb The Dodgers badly need an ace and are focusing on Blue Jay ace Roy Halladay. The Dodgers would have to give up Billingsley and others.

The Dodgers do need an ace pitcher for sure. They need one to get past the NLCS in 2010, should they get there again. But, should the Dodgers give up a cheap starting pitcher with ace potential, along with prospects, for one year, presumably, of Roy Halladay?

I am not convinced Billz needs to be included in the deal. The Phillies gave up 4 minor league prospects for a year and a half of Cliff Lee. Why would the Dodgers give up Billz AND prospects?

Poll

Will the Dodgers need to give up Chad Billingsley in a deal for Roy Halladay?

No, a package or prospects should be enough.

255 votes

Yes, the Dodgers prospects aren't as good as prospects from other teams competing for Halladay's services.

336 votes

591 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: Dodgers To Trade One of Their Core??

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:00:30 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Russell Martin hits an RBI single during the fourth inning of Game 4 of the National League Championship baseball series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Oct. 19, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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In his Sunday morning blog, ESPN's Buster Olney suggests the Dodgers will trade one of their arbitration eligible players this offseason:

Los Angeles is expected to move at least one of its many arbitration-eligible players via trade. You might match Halladay with what the Dodgers have to offer -- Canada native Russell Martin plus others. But remember that Martin's OPS has dropped 162 points during the past two seasons. He also is climbing swiftly up the arbitration ladder; his salary might climb from $3.9 million last season to $6 million next season. In the end, the Dodgers might not get the ace they need.

So, I took a look at the list of arbitration eligible players the Dodgers have this offseason. Here is the list:

Hong-Chih Kuo

There are four players that LA will certainly not trade right now: Kemp, Ethier, Sherrill and Kuo. Kemp and Ethier are obvious, and Sherrill and Kuo are two of the best left-handed relievers in the game, so they aren't going anywhere.

Of the remaining four players, I don't see the Dodgers dealing Broxton or Billingsley. John Perrotto wrote in his Sunday On The Beat article that Billz would be available in a trade this offseason. I just don't see it. I see him just having an off year in 2009 due to his jump in innings pitched in 2008. Broxton was one the best closers in baseball during the regular season, but for the second season in a row, Broxton blew up in the NLCS.

That leaves Russell Martin and James Loney. I have been down on Martin for two years now, so I would be happy if he was dealt as part of a package for an ace starting pitcher. I do like Loney, but the Dodgers need a power hitter at first base, and I could see them packaging him for ace starter as well.

Should LA trade Russell Martin, they could go out and sign Bengie Molina who still can hit for an old catcher. He batted cleanup for the Giants most of the 2009 season. If they decide to package Loney, they could move Casey Blake to first base, and go out and sign Adrian Beltre. Beltre is probably the best fielding third baseman in the game, and can still hit for power and steal a few bags.

Poll

Who gets traded out of LA this offseason?

Russell Martin

328 votes

James Loney

161 votes

Chad Billingsley

110 votes

Jonathan Broxton

28 votes

627 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia