SB Nation - Andy LaRoche

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Frank McCourt has a strange way of defining "Business as Usual"

Phil Gurnee — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:09:13 -0000

Eric seemed a bit ticked off today as Frank McCourt proved once again that economics is more important then fielding the best team now and in the future. When Ned Colletti was hired among the news of the divorce he said he was told that the Dodgers would conduct "Business as Usual". And he's right, the Dodgers are conducting business as usual for them. Ever since the summer of 2008 Frank has shown that he's more concerned with saving money and playing in the now then he is in the long term future of his Dodgers. Move after move has saved him money in the short term while allowing him to compete in the short term, but this strategy can only work so long, and just like leveraging the team time and time again at some point you have to pay the piper.

Many seemed shocked by todays news that the Dodgers would not offer Wolf/Hudson arbitration. I'm not sure why, the Dodgers have clearly had a trend for the last 18 months of saving money at every opportunity and being risk averse when it comes to arbitration.

Cost cutting moves since the summer of 2008.

2008

1. Selling/Trading Carlos Santana/Jon Meloan to the Indians for a free and clear Casey Blake. The ramifications were the loss of the best player in the California League who played a premium position in exchange for a good 3rd baseman for the current team at zero cost saving the team around $2,000,000. The only thing wrong with the deal was that to get the Indians to play Casey's salary the price seemed much much to high when you consider who the Indians got from the Brewers when they traded CC and didn't pay any salary.

2. Trading/Selling 2007 2nd round pick Michael Watt for Greg Maddux. Nothing wrong with getting Maddux but since we didn't want to pay any salary the cost of the prospect was kind of high for a 40 something year old pitcher who could barely go 5 quality innings.

3. Trading/Selling Andy LaRoche/Byron Morris for Manny Ramirez. Nothing wrong with acquiring Manny but again the Dodgers managed to acquire a player for the post season push at no financial cost to them by trading prospects.

In 2008 the Dodgers managed to trade Carlos Santana/Jon Meloan/Michael Watt/Andy LaRoche/Byron Morris and acquire Manny/Blake/Maddux while not taking on any salary. Surely a short term bonus to the team but quite a price to pay for the future instead of just spending some money.

2009

1. Deferring Andruw Jone's contract instead of simply eating it and not having to worry about the cost in the future. By deferring his contract it allowed them to sign Wolf/Hudson/Manny.

2. Deferring Manny's two year deal so that the pain would endure for many years to come.

3. Trading Tony Abreu for Jon Garland. The cash strapped Diamondbacks threw in some money ($3,661,102) to cover Garlands buy out and for that price they got someone who will probably be there starting 2nd baseman in 2010. The Diamondbacks now have a cheap 2nd baseman for the next several years while Dodgers have no Garland and no 2nd baseman.

4. Shockingly the Sherrill trade was not about money, but the long term ramifications might be felt for years to come as Josh Bell and Steve Johnson were ripped from the system.

5. With the possibility of gaining four high draft picks the Dodgers opt to not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson because of the fear of having to pay them even though the odds of them accepting arbitration were not very high. And even if they did accept, one year deals for productive players in their 30's is usually a good plan of attack. For once they may have screwed themselves not only in the short term but in the long term. In the long term Eric noted the value of those draft picks is in the millions with these tweets from Jay Jaffe:

4 years ago Nate Silver estimated that team losing type A f-a is compensated with $12 million in draft picks.

So, for avoiding 4 bonuses ($1-2 mil per, max), Dodgers lose out on $24 mil of picks by not offering Hudson & Wolf arb. #mccourtsmustgo

In the short term we certainly could have used either Wolf or Hudson in 2010 on one year deals.

Also in 2008/2009 the Memories of Kevin Malone chronicles how the Dodgers over the last two years have spent the least amount of money on draft bonuses

The Dodgers have paid $8.5 million in signing bonuses for draft picks over the last two years -- the lowest figure among all major league teams, according to Baseball America.

The Dodgers, so proud of their heritage in Asia and Latin America, today are a non-factor in bidding for top amateur players abroad. In 2008, according to Baseball America, major league clubs combined to sign 115 such players for bonuses of more than $100,000. The Dodgers did not sign one.

Let us not forget how they handled the following draft picks as Eric reported in the comments.

2006: Dodgers draft Alex White in 14th round, big time talented P out of HS, don’t sign him (he went #15 to Indians in 2009)
2007: Dodgers draft Kyle Blair in 5th round, fail to sign him for $1.35m…he goes to USD and will be 1st rounder in2010.

And you wonder why I was shocked that Garret Gould was signed. I wonder what Logan White had to do to make that happen?

Face it, this ownership has cash flow problems and has done everything it can possibly do to mitigate current financial obligations by either deferring the problems to the future or selling assets (prospects) to help them compete in the short term. A $100 Million dollar payroll is no small amount but when your competition in the NLCS is spending $140 Million it might seem you are playing with an arm tied behind your back. However the Padres won't feel sorry for the Dodgers since the Dodgers outspend the Padres by the same margin.

Amazingly with all of this the team still has a core good enough to get back to the postseason but now I'm wondering who will be next to finance the short term goal as they throw the long term vision away?

If Frank came out and said, you know I've got some financial problems and we need to cut back until we get this straightened out, I'd feel like writing a Hobo Frank column saying we should support this team. I could live with the current team as we throw out Haeger/McDonald/Elbert/Lindblom into the rotation along with a host of cheap NRI's. I could live with DeWitt/Belliard manning 2nd base until DeJesus is ready. I can live with having to go cheap with the farm in combination with what we currently have. What I can't live with is bullshit PR spin about Business as Usual and the selling of the future because they don't have the cash for the present. This may be business as usual for Frank McCourt but it is not how Dodgers fans expect the team to be run. At least I hope not.

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Perry Hill Speaks Out

Charlie — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:54:41 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

4 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates first base coach Perry Hill (8) and St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, left, come to the aide of a fan who was hit by a foul ball down the first baseline in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Friday, Aug. 7, 2009. Pirates's Garrett Jones was the batter. The fan was taken by paramedics from the field, and his condition is not known. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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I'm honestly not overly interested in the scene that has unfolded around Perry Hill's departure, but since the Post-Gazette has another item on it today and Buster Olney is running with it...

As dramas go, I find this one to be pretty thin gruel, and it's very surprising to see that ESPN.com thinks the loss of a first-base coach is interesting. Right off the top, the reason this is still in the news is that Hill has spoken up to dispute Neal Huntington's comment that Hill "has decided he does not want to coach." Hill says he does want to coach, just not with the Pirates right now.

It's a distinction without a difference, even if we grant that Huntington meant that Hill doesn't want to coach at all, which isn't at all clear from what Huntington actually said. The fact is that the Pirates have Hill under contract next year, so by leaving them behind, he is effectively opting not to coach. If there was anything wrong with Huntington's comments, it's that they were a little bit ambiguous.

I'm not sure I understand why this story would be national news. A coach refusing to honor his contract is, I suppose, unusual, but since Hill is just a first-base coach, I'm not sure why any non-Pirate fan would care.

It's unfortunate that the Pirates lost him--he has a good reputation. But it's not really clear to me that his loss will be felt much. Hill's greatest value lies in his reputation as an infield coach, and it's true that the Pirates made big strides in their defense last year. But most of that improvement was in the outfield, not the infield, as good defenders like Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss (and, if you believe the numbers, even Lastings Milledge) replaced mediocre or outright bad ones like Jason Bay and Nate McLouth. Hill may well deserve some credit for Andy LaRoche's good play at third, and the Delwyn Young experiment at second turned out better than I thought it might have (although it was still pretty bad). But improvement in the infield was a small percentage of the overall improvement. Hill will be missed, but a coach is just a coach.

* * *

I'm on the road tomorrow through next Tuesday. I suspect I will have some internet access, but I'm not sure how much, so please hang tight if the updates aren't as regular as you'd like.

Jason Bay Headed to Free Agency

Charlie — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 02:52:56 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

8 months ago: Boston Red Sox' Jason Bay reacts after striking out with two men on base in the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park in Boston Wednesday, April 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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USS Mariner on Jason Bay:

He’s 31 years old, right-handed, and not really much an outfielder anymore. He has classic old player skills. In fact, he’s eerily reminiscent to some other free agent the M’s blew a lot of money on.

Bay, 2009: .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins
Sexson, 2003: .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins

The numbers are from Sexson’s last healthy season before the M’s signed him – you’ll recall that he missed most of his contract year with a shoulder problem, but then went right back to being the player he was before the injury. Interestingly, Sexson was actually headed into his age 29 season when the M’s signed him, so Bay’s actually even further into his decline phase than Richie was. Richie made better contact than Bay does, if you can believe that. Their power levels were similar, and they both offset the low batting averages by drawing a bunch of walks.

In terms of skillsets, they’re basically the same player – quality (but aging) power hitters who don’t fit the park and play defense like a DH. These are the types of players that make the worst free agent signings. Power is overvalued in the market, while defense is undervalued, so sluggers almost always get paid more than they’re worth. Toss in the fact that this skillset doesn’t age well, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Well put. Bay's a nice player, but he's past the phase of his career where he was an intriguing young player, and is now an increasingly scary commodity. He doesn't make contact quite as well as he used to, he doesn't play defense, and he runs gingerly. Obviously, he's still a very good player and he may have some good seasons left, but this is not the kind of player you want to pay market value for.

A couple of points here:

1) The return for the Bay trade so far hasn't been so hot, clearly, but I hope it's clear that trading him was, at least, the right idea. Bay is now an impending free agent and might have played his last game for Boston, which failed to sign him to a long-term deal. If Boston couldn't do it, then the Pirates almost certainly couldn't have, not that they should have wanted to anyway.

Bay is a Type A free agent, which means the Bucs would have probably received compensation picks for him, but I'm not sure Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris aren't worth more than those comp picks anyway, and they certainly were worth more than those picks when they were acquired.

2) The case of someone like Sexson shows how small-market teams can compete even with the deck stacked against them. Since Sexson wasn't yet eligible to become a free agent, the Brewers were able to sign him before the 2001 season to a cheap four-year, $17 million deal that carried him through his age-29 season. He then signed a backloaded $50 million contract with the Mariners that quickly became a debacle because he only had two more decent seasons left in him.

Bay just turned 31, and he's only now reaching free agency. Whoever signs him is very likely to be paying more for what he did in Pirates and Red Sox uniforms than anything he's likely to do going forward. It's obviously way too early to shut the book on Bay. Obviously. But there are lots of warning signs there, and most of the time a player's best seasons come before he's eligible for free agency.

Community Projection Review: Second Base

Charlie — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 21:45:44 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

7 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Delwyn Young hurdles Chicago Cubs' Milton Bradley while turning the double play on Cubs' Derrek Lee at first during the third inning of a baseball game at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Wednesday, May 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Freddy Sanchez was among a number of players we reviewed who didn't actually wind up with the team. Here's what we predicted.

Community: .300/.332/.419

ZiPS: .285/.324/.398

Actual (with both Pittsburgh and San Francisco): .293/.326/.416

Bonus: We predicted that Sanchez would have 548 plate appearances, thus failing to trigger his 2010 option. Actually, he had 489.

We were spot on here. A number of people were very close, but it looks like Chad Bahamas, who predicted that Sanchez would hit .290/.330/.415, was the closest.

Sanchez's numbers were better for the Pirates than they were with the Giants, for whom he posted a .619 OPS. I wasn't a big fan of the Sanchez trade that brought Tim Alderson, but purely based on the results so far, the Bucs look like pretty clear winners in that trade. Sanchez's injury issues have to be a big concern for the team that signs him on the free agent market. You'll recall that in 2008, he had an injury-plagued first half, posting a .556 OPS. In the second half, he was terrific, posting an .862 OPS.

This year, it was the opposite--he had an .834 OPS in the first half, and a .532 OPS in the second. Take the last half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, and you have a pretty good season in there. But if he can't stay healthy, and as he gets older he probably won't, he isn't much of an asset.

Anyway, Delwyn Young took most of the playing time at second after Sanchez left. It was an interesting experiment. Young tried hard and did make strides in the field, although he still wasn't close to being an average glove at second--he posted a -13.6 UZR/150 there. On top of that, his hitting collapsed completely down the stretch.

Young is a useful player, but he's probably more of a Rob Mackowiak-like super-sub than a regular player. The Pirates are considering moving Andy LaRoche to second at some point in time; while there's precedent for good defensive third basemen moving to second (or back to second) without much of a problem (Akinori Iwamura comes to mind, and so does Sanchez himself), it remains to be seen how well LaRoche can handle the position. Then there's also the issue of who will play third if that happens, since Pedro Alvarez will probably start the year in the minors and Neil Walker hasn't exactly locked down a big league job. I wouldn't be surprised if Young won the second base job out of Spring Training, but I would be surprised if he were still there at the end of the next season.

Pirates' Season Ends With 6-0 Loss

Charlie — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:26:30 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds Scott Rolen, left, slides safely into third past Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Andy LaRouche, right, for a RBI-triple in the fifth inning during a baseball game, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Cincinnati. The Reds won 6-0. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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In the Pirates' final game of the year, the Bucs managed to put a staggering fifteen men on base--ten hits, including a triple, plus four walks and a hit batsman--without plating a single one of them. This wasn't a good game by any stretch, but it could have been considerably better. In the fifth inning, Steve Pearce led off with a triple and Andrew McCutchen followed that up with a walk--and then Andy LaRoche came to the plate and swung at about a million pitches outside the strike zone, fouling off most of them before finally striking out swinging. Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge followed that up with strikeouts of their own.

The Bucs' pitching today was one of those bullpen special days, with Jeff Karstens getting the spot start and pitching only two and a third. Today's bullpen only day didn't work out nearly as well as it did the last time, as Karstens allowed two runs and Donald Veal made a complete mess in the bottom of the fifth.

Brandon Moss got a start and went 1-for-2 with two walks. Good for him, but fortunately for all of us, it sounds like this was a last hurrah of sorts, since he won't be starting much next year. Moss finishes the season with 133 games played and a .236/.303/.364 line. That would be barely acceptable for a Gold Glove shortstop, but for a corner outfielder, well... at least Moss rates as a good defensive player, which means he's a worthwhile bench guy. Beyond that, I think we've seen what we need to see.

One nice thing--well, pretty much the only nice thing--about knowing you're a terrible ballclub is the ability to use playing time as a way of acquiring information. It wasn't automatic that Moss would fail this year. PECOTA (subscription required) said before the season that there would be about a 25% chance of him being as bad or worse than he actually was, and compared him to good players like Curtis Granderson, Paul O'Neill, Jason Kubel, Graig Nettles and Carlos Pena, along with some other guys who weren't nearly as good. The Pirates sensibly used the first couple months of the season to see if they had a Granderson or O'Neill on their hands. It turns out they almost certainly don't, but hey--it's not like the Bucs would have won 90 games with a different right fielder.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

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Pirates discover the Reds' Secret Underground Lehr. Reds lose, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:07:16 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Sure, Brandon looks like he's concentrating on the play, but secretly he's beginning to suspect he's not going to be getting that $2 million from David Letterman. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Andy LaRoche. He went 2-3 and drove in two runs.

Key Plays

The Brothers McCutchen did the damage in the third inning. Lehr walked Daniel McCutchen, then Andrew McCutchen doubled. That's when Andy LaRoche hit his single. Pirates 2, Reds 0.
In the fourth inning, Lastings Milledge went all Blastings Milledge and hit a home run. Pirates 3, Reds 0.
The Reds didn't have much in the way of offense, but Wladimir Balentien did hit a home run in the seventh inning. Pirates 3, Reds 1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

On both of his hits, Andy LaRoche was thrown out trying to stretch his single into a double.
Double-machine Paul Janish hit a double. Then Joey Votto hit what should have been a double, but Lastings Milledge made a nice catch. Flashtings-the-Leather Milledge.
Arthur Rhodes apparently broke his toe on Sept. 4. He then pitched in eight games. And now he's on the disabled list. Thanks for the great season, Colossus!
Walt Jocketty also broke his toe when he was kicking Dick Pole to the curb.
This was Daniel McCutchen's first career victory. Shame it came against the Reds, but congratulations kid. You prevented the Pirates from losing 100 games this season.

Final - 10.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	0
WP: Daniel McCutchen (1 - 2) SV: Matt Capps (27) LP: Justin Lehr (5 - 3)

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