SB Nation - Hong-Chih Kuo

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1). Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control

Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

NLCS Preview: Phillies vs. Dodgers, Game 1, Thursday 10/14, 7:07 CT

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:00:18 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

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Last year's Cubs would have loved this series.

Between the Phillies and Dodgers, five lefthanded starters (Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf) are likely to start the majority of games in the NLCS, which begins tonight in Los Angeles -- and that's not to mention the solid lefthanded relievers both teams have (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, and ex-Cub Scott Eyre -- who now has a blog; who knew?).

Meanwhile, the two teams involved are heavily laden with lefthanded power hitters (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, James Loney and Andre Ethier). Will anyone score runs in this series?

Seriously, as we learned this season, handedness among hitters is overrated. Both teams have good hitters -- and the Dodgers have plenty of good right-handed hitters, too -- and it really shouldn't matter what side of the plate you hit from, as long as you can hit. Both teams scored a ton of runs during the regular season: the Phillies led the league with 820 runs scored (still fewer than the 855 the Cubs scored in 2008) and the Dodgers were fourth with 780. The Dodgers had better all-around pitching, leading the league in ERA (3.41) and fewest runs allowed (611). The Phillies' overall pitching was more pedestrian; their 4.16 ERA was a distant sixth behind the Cubs' 3.84.

However, as we have learned to our bitter disappointment the last two years, it doesn't matter what you do in the regular season; the playoffs are a "what have you done for me lately" dance. One of the keys for the Phillies in their series with the Rockies is that they got 2008-level performance out of Brad Lidge, who had a horrific regular season but nailed down two games in the division series despite a bit of shaky pitching -- that had to do wonders for his confidence. The acquisition of Cliff Lee made the Phillies' rotation as good as the Dodgers', and Lee posted a 1.10 ERA in two NLDS starts. LA also has an outstanding closer in Jonathan Broxton, and the acquisition of Sherrill from Baltimore solidified their setup relief.

These teams are pretty evenly matched. The NLCS hasn't gone seven games since that yawner of a seven-gamer between the Cardinals and Mets in 2006, but I say this one goes seven, and the Dodgers go to the World Series.

Phillies at Dodgers, 7 pm CDT. TV: TBS. Announcers: Chip Caray and Ron Darling.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue LA and Phillies site The Good Phight.

Once again, no overflows scheduled today. If you need one, post it in the FanShot section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Phillies' Five Keys to the Series

David S. Cohen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:40:47 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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With the NLCS rematch starting tonight, here's a look at one fan's keys to the series:

1) Cole Hamels' performance. Despite what you may have read elsewhere, Cole Hamels has not been a different pitcher in 2009 than he was in 2009. In fact, he has been an almost identical pitcher both years, as the chart below shows:

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
2008	7.76	2.10	1.11	3.72
2009	7.81	2.00	1.12	3.72

Thus, from an analytic standpoint, this year's Cole Hamels is the same Cole Hamels who posted a 1.93 ERA against the Dodgers last year in the NLDS, winning both games he pitched.

However, from a results standpoint, this year's Cole Hamels, as we all know, has not been the same. He has been incredibly unlucky, as the results-oriented stats show:

	BABIP	AVG	WHIP	ERA
2008	0.270	0.231	1.08	3.09
2009	0.325	0.274	1.29	4.32

And, although the first chart is the best way to evaluate Cole Hamels as an individual player, the results on the day he pitches are what matters in determining who gets a win or loss that day (of course, along with the bullpen and offensive results). The Phillies' chances against the Dodgers may very well hinge on whether the lucky Hamels of 2008 or the unlucky Hamels of 2009 shows up.

2) Bullpen usage. The really wonderful side effect of Brad Lidge's struggles has been that Charlie Manuel has started managing his bullpen in a much smarter way. He is playing matchups, even if it means sitting his closer for much of the ninth inning. He is bringing in his best relievers earlier in games. He's even using his starting pitchers in key spots when they might otherwise not be used in a short series. If Manuel keeps up this bullpen usage, the Phillies can go a long way toward negating one of the major deficiencies they have. On the other hand, if Manuel thinks that the two S's next to Brad Lidge's name in the last two box scores indicate that Lidge is now "the closer" and goes back to robotically calling on him in the ninth and trying to get Ryan Madson to always set him up in the eighth, the bullpen is likely to flail, as it did much of the season.

3) Ryan Howard's at bats against lefties. The Rockies lost to the Phillies in part because Jim Tracy didn't have the guts or brains to pull Huston Street and put a lefty on the mound to face Ryan Howard in the top of the ninth Monday night. This year, Ryan Howard was Albert Pujols (a 1.076 OPS) against righties but David Eckstein (a .653 OPS) against lefties. With all righty starters, the Rockies weren't able to neutralize Howard as much as the Dodgers will be able to in the NLDS.

The Dodgers have two lefty starters (Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf) who will probably start 4 of the first 5 or 6 games of the series. With two very good lefties in his bullpen in Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill, if Joe Torre manages it correctly, in the 26ish plate appearances that Howard will probably get in the first 6 games of the series, Howard will only face righties 5 or 6 times. If Howard sees any more than that, Torre has made a major mistake. Thus, we need Howard, when he's hitting more like David Eckstein, to perform. After all, even Eckstein drives in the occasional run and hits the occasional home run.

4) Jayson Werth. Against lefties, Jayson Werth should bat cleanup. In fact, Jayson Werth should bat cleanup the entire series. That's crazy, you say? Ryan Howard is our cleanup hitter? Well, that's true most of the time, but not when he's going to be turned into David Eckstein (see previous point) for most of the series. On the other hand, Werth goes from Marlon Byrd (.806 OPS) against righties to Albert Pujols (a 1.080 OPS) against lefties. Here's the difference for Werth:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
v. RHP	0.256	0.348	0.457	0.806
v. LHP	0.302	0.436	0.644	1.080

In every way, Werth is a much better hitter against lefties. In fact, although not as drastic an absolute change as Howard's, Werth's performance against lefties puts the same quality hitter in the four-hole as Howard would be against righties.

Add in that Chase Utley actually hits lefties better than righties (.962 OPS compared to .877), and Werth hitting cleanup would keep the pressure on the Dodgers' pitchers that perfunctorily putting Howard there would alleviate. And, if Torre ignores the platoon difference and puts in a lefty to face Utley, putting Werth in between Utley and Howard gives the Phillies much more of a chance, as Torre would keep the lefty in against Werth, whereas he would probably take him out for Werth if Werth is batting after Howard.

5) Silencing Manny Ramirez. Despite the fact that the Phils won the World Series last year, most Phillies' fans probably still have nightmares of Manny Ramirez at the plate last October. In case you've purposefully pushed the memory from your mind, these were Manny's triple-slash numbers in the NLCS against the Phillies: .500/.643/1.100. This translates to a 1.743 OPS. Saying Manny was "on fire" against the Phils last October is like saying the Nationals were simply "not good" this year.

This year, Manny continued his absurd NLCS pace . . . but only for the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, Manny was a different player. In fact, he was quite human. And, as this chart shows, although he did improve a bit, his mere mortal performance continued in the NLDS against the Cardinals:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	0.355	0.487	0.669	1.156
2d Half	0.255	0.379	0.459	0.838
NLDS	0.308	0.357	0.538	0.896

If the 2d half and NLDS Manny shows up, the Phillies will have a much better chance of quieting the Dodgers' lineup. If the 1st half Manny, or worse, the NLCS Manny from last year, shows up, the Phillies are going to have their work cut out for them once again. Obviously, the Phillies were able to overcome that Manny last year, but it would be easier not to have to deal with that Manny.

So there you have it. If Cole Hamels' actual results are good, Charlie Manuel continues to strategically use his bullpen, Ryan Howard can manage to hit lefties, Jayson Werth continues to pummel lefties and does so from the cleanup spot, and Manny Ramirez stays human, then the Phillies are going to be in great shape.

A Brief Look At The Phillies

Eric Stephen — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:42:01 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge.

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NLCS: Phillies vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Thu	Dodger Stadium	5:07pm
Game 2	Fri	Dodger Stadium	1:07pm
Game 3	Sun	Citizens Bank Park	5:07pm
Game 4	Mon	Citizens Bank Park	5:07pm
Game 5*	Oct 21	Citizens Bank Park	5:07pm
Game 6*	Oct 23	Dodger Stadium	5:07pm
Game 7*	Oct 24	Dodger Stadium	5:07pm
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

I can still remember the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach as Matt Stairs' mammoth home run sucked the air out of Dodger Stadium in Game 4 of last year's NLCS. There are so many painful memories of that series: the Furcal error in Game 1, the sure Manny Ramirez home run that somehow was hit to the only part of the park it wouldn't have been a home run, the Chad Billingsley performances that we still have to hear about to this day, the Victorino laser beam home run that may have been eight feet off the ground during it's entire flight, the foul popout to end the series just like Thurman Munson squeezing the final out of the 1978 World Series at Dodger Stadium. A new year, however, brings a new opportunity, so with the NLCS rematch set to begin tomorrow, here are a few notes heading into the series:

Cole Hamels is the same pitcher as last season

On first glance, it may seem like Phillies' pitcher Cole Hamels is having a down year. After all, his ERA is up over a run from last season, from 3.09 to 4.32. However, his peripherals are nearly identical to last season:

Year	HR%	UIBB%	K%	LD%	GB%	FIP	x-FIP	ERA	BABIP
2008	3.07%	5.04%	21.47%	21.8%	39.5%	3.70	3.78	3.09	.262
2009	2.95%	4.79%	20.64%	20.8%	40.4%	3.71	3.75	4.32	.321

Hamels has pitched basically the same in both years, yet as we can see by his batting average on balls in play, he has been less fortunate this season, and as a result his ERA has skyrocketed. The truth about Hamels is that he's probably somewhere in between an unstoppable super ace and a struggling pitcher. But, he's the same pitcher as last year, fundamentally, so if you think he's not capable of reeling off another amazing October run, think again.

Phillies against LHP will be a factor

Much has been made about the Dodgers have the left-handed pitching to combat the Phillies' lineup. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez are forces to contend with from the left side of home plate, as are switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino at the top of the lineup. Conventional baseball wisdom suggests that the Dodgers and their southpaw pitchers would have an advantage, but the Phillies have performed quite well against lefties this season. David S. Cohen of The Good Phight tackled the issue yesterday:

Yes, the Phillies lefties do worse against lefthanded pitching, but only going from an .814 OPS against righties to a .793 OPS against lefties. The big difference is that the Phillies righties do much better against lefthanded pitching, going from a .717 OPS against righties to a .783 OPS against lefties.

And, measured against the rest of the league, the Phillies here are at a huge advantage. The Phillies' lefties sOPS+ (measure of how good the team's OPS is against the league for this split, with 100+ being better and below 100 being worse) is 108 against righties but goes up to 125 against lefties. The team's righties sOPS+ goes from 98 against righties to 102 against lefties.

It's true: Utley, Ibanez, and Victorino all hit better against lefties than righties. Rollins has hit worse against LHP this season, but is slightly better in his career. To me, the slew of Dodger lefties matter for one reason: Ryan Howard. Howard against RHP is the best hitter in the National League (.319/.395/.691 this year, .307/.409/.661 career), but against LHP he becomes invisible (.207/.298/.356 in 2009, .226/.310/.444 career). Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, Hong-Chih Kuo, and George Sherrill will play a huge role in attempting to shut Howard down.

As for the rest of the lefties in the Phillies' lineup, I have to believe the Dodger lefties are good enough to get them out. Left-handed batters have hit just .193/.268/.317 against Dodger southpaws, the fourth best sOPS+ in the league. Here is how the Phillies' lefties have fared against the top NL lefty squads this season:

LHP Against LHB, 2009
	vs MLB LHB		vs Phillies LHB
Team	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Cardinals	.170/.244/.213	.457	.273/..385/.273	.657
Reds	.178/.255/.240	.494	.211/.286/.579	.865
Braves	.203/.267/.304	.571	.191/.283/.340	.623
Dodgers	.193/.268/.317	.585	.189/.254/.358	.613

Teams whose left-handed pitchers have done the best against the league's lefty batters have also done well against the Phillies. A couple of home runs off Danny Herrera inflated the Phillies' LHB OPS off the Reds, but I'm going out on a limb saying the Dodgers possess better LHP options than that. Dodger lefthanders have struck out an MLB-best 32.5% of left-handed batters this season.

Struggling shortstops may be the key to the series

Any time a regular player has an on-base percentage below .300, it's a cause for concern. Jimmy Rollins has a .296 OBP this season, yet there he is at the top of the Philadelphia lineup, game after game. However, he is still having a good season. His BABIP is just .251 this season, after fluctuating between .281 and .309 over the last six years, suggesting some bad luck.

The Hardball Times features a stat called PrOPS, which is short for "Predicted OPS." They describe it thusly:

PrOPS stands for "Predicted OPS." It was developed by J.C. Bradbury amd introduced in this article. PrOPS isn't really a new stat; it's a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks.

Based on his underlying data, Rollins' prOPS this season is .783 (.290/.331/.452), which is right in line with his career:

Year	prOPS	Actual OPS
2004	.769	.803
2005	.767	.770
2006	.820	.811
2007	.831	.875
2008	.816	.786
2009	.783	.719

Rollins is still a force to be reckoned with, despite his low OBP.

As for Rafael Furcal, a healthy back has made him a force to be reckoned with at the top of the lineup, which shifts the Dodger offense into a higher gear. Furcal hit .330/400/.491 since the beginning of September, but more importantly he was six for seven in stolen base attempts. Furcal has had the green light to run all season, but only attempted 11 steals in the first five months of the season. That he is on the move again suggests he finally feels healthy, a great sign for the Dodgers. Furcal hit .500/.500/.667 in the NLDS against the Cardinals.

Brad Lidge is improving, but still struggling

Lidge, one year removed from a "perfect" season (no blown saves in 2008), is having quite the imperfect season in 2009. This year he has blown a whopping 11 saves, including two to the Dodgers back in June on back-to-back days. He has been consistent in his struggling, but a look at the underlying data suggests some improvement later in the season:

Month	IP	BS	ERA	FIP
April	8.2	1	7.27	6.96
May	14.2	3	7.98	5.33
June	4.0	2	6.75	8.40
July	10.2	0	5.91	5.40
August	10.2	3	6.75	4.74
Sept/Oct	10.0	2	8.10	3.35
2009 Totals	58.2	11	7.21	5.35

Even as his FIP improved into acceptable levels later in the season, he still struggled, blowing five saves over the final two months. He had two saves in the division series, but he also walked two of the six batters he faced. On the season, Lidge has walked 5.22 batters per nine innings, so the key for the Dodgers will be patience and discipline. Not that I would ever want the Phillies to have a lead, but if Lidge enters the game with a one-run lead the Dodgers will take those odds.

Who says voodoo dolls don't work?

Since July 1, including the postseason, Matt Stairs has four hits in 50 at-bats, and is hitting .080/.281/.240.

Just like the NLDS with the Cardinals, this NLCS is a closely-matched series between two very good teams. I anticipate a good series, and by "good" I mean "the Dodgers will win in six."

Going 3-0 in the NLDS and Having Lefty Starters: Do the Dodgers Have an Advantage?

David S. Cohen — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 21:06:03 -0000

Floating out in the commentariat netherworld are two ideas suggesting that the Dodgers have an advantage over the Phillies in the NLCS.

First, there's the 3-0 advantage. This argument notes that the Dodgers easily swept the Cardinals, finishing their series on Saturday. In contrast, the Phillies needed another game and two more days to defeat the Wild Card team. Thus, the Dodgers are at an advantage because they are better physically rested, less emotionally spent, and showed their dominance by going 3-0.

Second, there's the lefty starter argument. This argument notes that the Phillies' power core of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez bat left-handed. The Rockies showed the Phillies a steady diet of right-handed starting pitchers. And their manager didn't even pull his right-handed closer facing Ryan Howard in the most important situation of the season. The Phillies obviously mash righties. But the Dodgers' starting rotation has Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, both very good lefties. And their bullpen has Phillie-killer Hong-Chih Kuo (in 31 plate appearances, the Phillies have a .277 OPS against him) as well as George Sherrill. Thus, the Dodgers have an advantage.

Well, rest assured, the Phillies may be at a disadvantage against the Dodgers, but not for these two reasons. I'll address them in order.

The 3-0 advantage: This one is fairly simple to address. Since 1995, when the modern Wild Card system was instituted, there have been 16 Championship Series featuring a team that went 3-0 in the Division Series facing a team that didn't go 3-0 in the Division Series. Of those 16 Championship Series, the 3-0 team has won only 6 times. Thus, the team that was worse in the Division Series has won 62.5% of the time.

Of course, this doesn't mean the Phillies' chances of winning are 62.5%. That's not how statistics work nor is it what I'm saying. It's just clear from the historical evidence that the team that went 3-0 does not have an advantage because of that record in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, it's possible (although certainly not proven) there's a disadvantage of some sort.

The lefty-starter advantage: The Phillies certainly dominated the Rockies' righties. In the NLDS, they had an .867 OPS against Rockies' righties compared to just a .408 OPS against their lefties. But this is a tragically small sample size, on both fronts: 157 plate appearances against righties versus only 13 against lefties.

With a much bigger sample size, the Phillies' favoring righties over lefties disappears. In fact, it gets reversed slightly. This year, the Phillies had a .779 OPS against righties compared to a .787 OPS against lefties. Don't worry about sample size here. The Phillies had 4593 plate appearances against righties and 1745 against lefties. So let me state this again just to be clear: the Phillies hit better against lefties than righties. With Utley, Howard, and Ibanez, how's this possible?

Yes, the Phillies lefties do worse against lefthanded pitching, but only going from an .814 OPS against righties to a .793 OPS against lefties. The big difference is that the Phillies righties do much better against lefthanded pitching, going from a .717 OPS against righties to a .783 OPS against lefties.

And, measured against the rest of the league, the Phillies here are at a huge advantage. The Phillies' lefties sOPS+ (measure of how good the team's OPS is against the league for this split, with 100+ being better and below 100 being worse) is 108 against righties but goes up to 125 against lefties. The team's righties sOPS+ goes from 98 against righties to 102 against lefties.

So are the Phillies disadvantaged against the Dodgers in this matchup? Maybe so, but if they are, it has nothing to do with the Dodgers' sweeping the Cardinals or the Dodgers having very good left-handed pitching.

No Rest, No Problem For Dodger Relievers

Eric Stephen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:55:35 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Going to the bullpen is a welcome sight in Los Angeles.

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Last night, the Dodgers were able to utilize their top four relievers to close out the game. It wasn't the conventional way of course, as Randy Wolf was pulled in the fourth inning, but the Dodgers have to be happy any time they have a lead after five or six innings and can turn the game over to their bullpen. The site of Ronald Belisario, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton usually means curtains for the other team.

In a perfect world, the Dodgers will get to use those same relievers tonight, perhaps adding a pinch of Ramon Troncoso to the winning recipe. Here's a look at how these relievers did with zero games rest on the season:

	With 0 Days Rest					With Rest
Pitcher	G	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA/OBP/SLG	G	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA/OBP/SLG
Broxton	26	1.71	2.73	11.96	.151/.216/.172	47	3.08	3.81	14.32	.172/.263/.264
Sherrill*	21	3.32	4.26	10.42	.200/.291/.286	51	1.08	2.70	7.02	.212/.277/.315
Kuo	3	7.71	11.42	15.43	.250/.455/.625	32	2.60	3.25	9.11	.194/.282/.276
Belisario	19	0.96	3.86	6.75	.206/.316/.279	50	2.42	3.63	8.65	.199/.286/.288

*I used Sherrill's numbers for the entire season, including his time in Baltimore.

There's really not a huge difference either way for Broxton, Sherrill, and Belisario, who have been used on back-to-back days quite often this season. The outlier is Kuo, who was only used three times in such situations all season, an understandable strategy given his injury history. Kuo was ineffective in one of his three outings, giving up a couple runs to Atlanta, a game in which he allowed his only home run since returning from the disabled list in late July. Aside from the small sample size, don't be alarmed by the high walk rate with no rest for Kuo; two of his three walks were intentionally issued to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to set up one of the most thrilling strikeouts of the season, the "I want Parkman" moment, if you will.

Since it's the playoffs, I would guess Kuo is available again today, if needed, although Ramon Troncoso might be added to the mix as well. Then again, Clayton Kershaw could shorten the game all by himself. But should the Dodgers need to go to the bullpen again today, fear not.

**********

Here are the lineups. The only change for either team is Julio Lugo starting at 2B instead of Skip Schumaker.

Cardinals		Dodgers
2B	Lugo	SS	Furcal
SS	Ryan	CF	Kemp
1B	Pujols	RF	Ethier
LF	Holliday	LF	Manny
RF	Ludwick	1B	Loney
C	Molina	3B	Blake
3B	DeRosa	2B	Belliard
CF	Rasmus	C	Martin
P	Wainwright	P	Kershaw

The Dodgers & Their Postseason Roster

Eric Stephen — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Will Doug Mientkiewicz be on the active roster come Wednesday?

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The rosters for the division series don't need to be turned in until 10am on Wednesday, but here's a look at the likely Dodger NLDS active roster. Keep in mind, this is what I think the Dodgers will do, not necessarily what I would want them to do.

NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

First, the locks:

Catchers (2)
Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7)
James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Ronnie Belliard, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4)
Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Starting Pitchers (2)
Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw

Relief Pitchers (5)
Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso

That leaves five spots:

Lefty Pinch-Hitter (1)
Jim Thome has struggled as a pinch hitter, both this season and in his career. He has four singles in 17 at-bats as a Dodger. He can't run, because he's slow and because he has a bad foot. He can't play first base, because of chronic back problems. Yet I believe he will make the roster over Doug Mientkiewicz, simply because Thome represents the threat of power, something lacking on the Dodger bench. Mientkiewicz would be a fine choice for a spot, especially if his shoulder is healed enough to play first base if needed, and in fact I would take him over Loretta, but I don't think that will happen.

Starting Pitchers (2)
Three guys are fighting for two spots, to start games three and four. Joe Torre hasn't officially named his starters for those games yet, but based on other comments he has made, I believe Chad Billingsley will start game three as long as he gets through his simulated game today in Arizona without any problems. That leaves Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland fighting for the other two spots. Padilla has pitched better of late, but over the course of the season, they were pretty similar pitchers (4.46 FIP for Padilla, 4.48 for Garland). I believe Padilla will be the choice to start Sunday in St. Louis.

Relief Pitchers (2)
I think Garland gets the nod as the long man in the pen, leaving Jeff Weaver out in the cold. That leaves one more bullpen spot, which I think will go to James McDonald, over Guillermo Mota and Scott Elbert. McDonald had a good season as a reliever, after a shaky start in the rotation, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 3.41 FIP from the bullpen. Over the last two months, McDonald has passed Mota on the depth chart, even when Mota was fully healthy. The other viable option is Elbert, because the Cardinals struggle so much against left-handed pitchers. However, the Cardinals really only have three lefty batters: Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, and Rick Ankiel. Their struggles with southpaws are largely due to their right handers failing to hit them (hitting .244/.328/.392), and I don't think Torre would use Elbert to face a righty, regardless of how they hit lefties. If the Dodgers were facing the Phillies, Elbert would have been more likely to make the roster, simply because they have more left handed batters Elbert could face in a LOOGY situation.

That's my prediction for the NLDS roster. What's yours?

A Brief Look At The Cardinals

Eric Stephen — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:00:36 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Matt Holliday really, really likes playing in the National League

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Here is a brief first impression of the St. Louis Cardinals, who will travel to Dodger Stadium to start the division series on Wednesday.

The Cardinals can't hit left-handed pitching

On the season, the Cardinals had the worst OPS in all of baseball against southpaws, hitting .234/.312/.363. However, back in July they bolstered their roster by adding right-handed hitters Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo. They have helped, but this is still a weakness to exploit. July 24 was Holliday's first game in Cardinal Red, and from that day forward, the club hit .250/.324/.374 against lefties.

With Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw starting in the first two games of the series, and Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill waiting to drop the hammer in the later innings, look for the Dodger lefties make a huge impact in this series.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are really, really good

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will likely each finish in the top three in National League Cy Young voting, have started a total of 62 games. The Cardinals have won 41 of those games. Carpenter led the National League in ERA with a 2.24 mark, and Wainwright wasn't far behind at 2.63. They were sixth and seventh in the NL in x-FIP, at 3.46 and 3.45, respectively. Both were in the top ten in baseball in innings per start, at 6.9 each.

Carpenter has pitched seven innings or longer in 18 of 28 starts, and gave up more than three runs in a game just three times all season. He's also a control artist, having walked more than two batters only thrice this year. Wainwright pitched seven innings or more in 21 of 34 starts, and allowed more than three runs only seven times.

Don't forget about Joel Pineiro

Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan should bottle whatever magic potion he used on Joel Pineiro, because Pineiro has turned in the finest season of his career. Pineiro doesn't strike out anyone -- his 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings is 86th among 87 MLB pitchers who qualified for the ERA title -- but he does just about everything else well.

Pineiro led baseball with an absurdly low 1.12 walks per nine innings, and his rate of 0.43 home runs per nine is second in baseball. Bad news for Dodger fans is that number one in homers allowed per nine innings is Carpenter, at 0.33. I would really love to explain Pineiro's success as luck or a fluke, but his x-FIP is an impressive 3.73, good for 10th in the National League, giving the Cardinals three starters with a better x-FIP than the Dodger-best 3.94 of Clayton Kershaw.

Outside of the big two, this lineup can be pitched to

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and will provide a steady dose of anxiety for Dodger fans this entire series. Matt Holliday has been superb since coming back to the National League. These two we know about, with their .451 and .421 wOBA, respectively. However, the rest of the lineup features no real threat. Nobody else features an OPS+ above 105, and the next highest wOBA on the team are Julio Lugo at .347 (he's at .339 on the season including his Boston numbers), and Yadier Molina and Ryan Ludwick at .337 each, barely above league average. I realize the same can be said about the Dodger lineup, but color me unimpressed by anyone outside the 3-4 spots in red. If the situation comes up again where Hong Chih-Kuo or another Dodger pitcher needs to walk both Pujols and Holliday to retire an inferior hitter, sign me up for another strikeout of Ludwick or Rick Ankiel, or someone similar.

Rick Ankiel is Jeff Francoeur with a better backstory

I liked Rick Ankiel the pitcher. I was sad when he lost the ability to throw strikes. I loved the fact that he was able to make it back to the majors as a position player. It was a great, feel good story for a while. But it's over. Ankiel is hitting .231/.283/.387 this season. Rookie Colby Rasmus, meanwhile, is hitting .253/.308/.411. Plus/minus rates them about even defensively (-1 for Ankiel, -2 for Rasmus in about double the innings), while Ultimate Zone Rating shows a wider gap (Rasmus at +11.2 UZR/150, Ankiel at -10.1). St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz was a guest on Sunday's postgame DodgerTalk on KABC, and he mentioned the Cardinals might consider starting Ankiel against the Dodgers' two lefty starting pitchers in the first two games (both Ankiel and Rasmus bat from the left side), because the club feels Ankiel hits lefties better. A closer look at the numbers reveals a reason:

Player	PA	BA/OBP/SLG	BABIP
Ankiel	98	.234/.265/.298	.338
Rasmus	113	.163/.223/.260	.189

It seems to me the difference in their performance against lefties can be explained by luck, as Rasmus' batting average on balls in play is remarkably low. The bottom line is that Ankiel is a replacement level player (at 0.0 Wins Above Replacement), and any time he takes away from Rasmus this series is great news for the Dodgers.

**********

Rosters don't have to be submitted until 10am on Wednesday, but it appears the Cardinals will carry 12 pitchers, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Viva El Birdos is the Cardinals' blog on SB Nation. Be sure to check their site for in-depth analysis of the Cardinals. For instance, here is a thorough review by chuckb of the most valuable Cardinals in 2009.

This series will be close, and as we have seen in previous years, the results of the series can change at the drop of a hat. A grand slam here, a throwing error there, and the series changes direction in a heartbeat.

Dodgers Week 24 In Review: Finish Line In Sight

Eric Stephen — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 15:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Keith Birmingham - AP

Its better that Jonathan Broxton misses his target on high fives with Russell Martin than on pitches to Russell Martin.

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Previous Weekly Recaps: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23

The Dodgers dropped the hammer at home this week, winning five of six against the Pirates and Giants, bringing them to the precipice of a second-straight division championship. The Dodgers really put it all together this week, combining a hot offense with stellar pitching, and outscored their opponents 36 to 18. This was just the second week of the season that the Dodgers scored at least double the runs of their foes. Way back in their undefeated week two, the Dodgers outscored the Giants and Rockies 50-17, also at home.

Seven of the eight regulars, plus the top two subs, had an OPS of .841 or higher during the week, as the offense scored six runs per game for the second straight week. To become just the third Los Angeles Dodger team ever to score 800 runs, the Dodgers have an uphill climb, needing 74 runs over their final 12 games, an average of 6.17 per contest.

The pitching was also great, as the starters put up an earned run average under three and the relievers put up an ERA under two. Seven of the nine relievers who pitched this week didn't allow a run.

The Dodgers have a five-game division lead over the Rockies with 12 games to play, as the inevitable truth of their 11th National League West division title is getting closer and closer. The last time the Dodgers won back-to-back division titles was 1977-1978.

Dodger Batter of the Week: Ronnie Belliard had another great week as a super-sub, but this award goes to the man Belliard tied for the club RBI lead during the week, Andre Ethier. Ethier hit three home runs during the week, all of which gave the Dodgers the lead, none more memorable than Tuesday night's game-ender against Pittsburgh, his sixth walk-off hit of the season. Honorable mention goes to Matt Kemp and Rafael Furcal, each of whom put up an OPS over 1.000.

Dodger Pitcher of the Week: Jon Garland gets this award, his second in three weeks as a Dodger. He won both starts, pitching 14 innings with a 1.29 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. There were a lot of candidates this week, including Hiroki Kuroda and his one run allowed in six innings, or any of the back end of the bullpen, who didn't allow a thing all week.

Week 24 Record: 5-1
36 runs scored (6.00 per game)
18 runs allowed (3.00 per game)
.780 pythagorean winning percentage

Overall Seasonal Record: 90-60 (.600)
726 runs scored (4.84 per game)
559 runs allowed (3.73 per game)
.617 pythagorean winning percentage (93-57)

Mr. Walk-Off: Down one with Rafael Furcal on first base in the 13th inning on Tuesday night, Andre Ethier put on his hero cape again, hitting a two-run, game-winning home run off Phil Dumatrait to beat the Pirates 5-4. It was the fourth walk-off home run of the season for Ethier, and his sixth walk-off hit this year. No player in baseball, dating back to at least 1974, has had more walk-off hits in a season than Ethier, and his nine walk-off hits since the beginning of 2008 leads the majors. The Dodgers as a team have 12 walk-off wins this season.

Thirty And A Hundred: Sure, there are more advanced statistics with which to evaluate players, but sometimes the old standbys work just fine. Growing up, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in were benchmarks of greatness to me, and while they still require context for proper evaluation, a 30/100 season still gives me the warm and fuzzy feelings of old. Andre Ethier's two-run home run off Tim Lincecum on Sunday gave him a career-high 101 runs batted in to go with his career-high 31 home runs. This is just the 36th season in Dodger history (and 21st in LA Dodger history) with 30 homers and 100 RBI, and the first since Adrian Beltre's contract drive in 2004. Matt Kemp is sitting on 25 HR and 95 RBI with 12 games to play, so there is an outside chance for the Dodgers to have 30/100 teammates for the first time since Gary Sheffield and Shawn Green in 2001. Coming into the season, I was sure the Dodgers would have one 30/100 outfielder, Manny Ramirez, but how weird is it that he might be the only Dodger outfielder not to have 30/100 this season?

KuoGeoBro: The terrific trio of Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton were great last week, combining for six scoreless innings, but this week they were sublime. The trio faced a combined 30 batters during the week, and nobody reached base. 14 of the 30 took the long walk of shame back to the dugout after striking out.

A Willie Davis Record to Keep: In home game number 77, James Loney hit his first home run at Dodger Stadium this season. Loney last homered at home on August 21, 2008. In between dingers, Loney hit .244/.309/.295 over 343 plate appearances in 86 home games. This means that Willie Davis will keep the Dodger record for most home runs in a season, all on the road, with 11 in 1969. Loney now has 13 home runs on the year, including 12 on the road.

Take The Longball Home: The Dodgers have turned on the power switch of late, homering in a season-high 10 straight games, hitting 17 home runs during the streak. It is the longest streak for the club since 2006, when the Dodgers had streaks of both 10 and 11 games with at least one dinger.

Not Quite Marlon, But Maybe Jermaine?: Ronnie Belliard is making the most of his chance with the Dodgers. He has started 14 of the 19 games since he came to the Dodgers, hitting .304/.339/.589 with four home runs and 14 runs batted in. Back in 2006, another late August middle infield acquisition from Washington, Marlon Anderson, got white hot during the stretch drive, hitting .375/.431/.813 with seven home runs in 73 plate appearances. By the way, Anderson's career high in home runs -- for a season -- was 12. In 18 games as a Dodger, Belliard has more home runs and as many runs batted in as Andruw Jones did in 75 games in 2008. One cost a shade over $35 million; the other cost roughly $363,388 plus Victor Garate.

Power & Speed: Belliard also did some work on the basepaths this week, stealing a base on Saturday against the Giants. He homered that game as well, making Belliard just the third Dodger to hit a home run and steal a base in the same game this season. Matt Kemp has turned the trick thrice, and James Loney did it once.

Furcal's Back?: Hampered both physically and mentally by a sore back all season, Rafael Furcal hasn't been much of a threat to steal this season, even though he has the green light from Joe Torre to do so. However, Furcal turned on the jets this week, with three stolen bases, his most in any week since September 2007.

Mr. Bases Loaded: No Dodger pitcher has pitched with the bases loaded more than Jeff Weaver this season, and boy has he delivered. In 24 plate appearances against him with the bases juiced, Weaver has allowed only one single and three walks, holding batters to a line of .050/.167/.050. None of the 24 plate appearances has resulted in more than one run scoring.

Walk To A Cure: On Friday night, Matt Kemp got his career-high 50th walk, giving the Dodgers eight players with 50 walks, only the third National League team in history to do so. More importantly, the Dodgers fulfilled my "50-Walk Challenge," issued in my first-ever post at True Blue LA. The wonderful readers of this site have stepped up, bringing our total pledged contributions to Think Cure, the official charity of the Dodgers, to $1,000. Thanks to every one for your support.

Transactions: Not a lot of action this week. The only move was when Guillermo Mota was activated from the disabled list before Monday's game, bringing the total number of players on the active roster to 35, including 16 pitchers.

Game By Game Results:

Upcoming Week: The Dodgers travel to the nation's capital on their Monday off day before beginning their final road trip of the season, a nine-game tilt through three cities. This week brings us three games in Washington followed by the first three games of a four-game series in Pittsburgh.

Magic Numbers
To win NL West: 7 (over the Rockies)
To clinch a playoff spot: 4 (over the Giants)

Week 24 Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BABIP
Ethier	24	6	7	2	0	3	7	2	0/0	.292/.370/.750	1.120	.286
Kemp	23	6	8	1	0	2	4	2	2/0	.348/.400/.652	1.052	.429
Furcal	20	7	6	1	1	1	1	4	3/0	.300/.417/.600	1.017	.294
Hudson	11	0	4	2	0	0	2	0	0/0	.364/.364/.545	.909	.400
Blake	14	4	4	0	1	0	2	4	0/0	.286/.474/.429	.902	.333
Manny	16	2	3	2	0	1	4	4	0/0	.188/.350/.500	.850	.182
Loney	20	5	6	0	0	1	2	3	0/0	.300/.391/.450	.841	.278
Martin	22	1	4	2	0	0	1	1	0/0	.182/.217/.273	.490	.211
Belliard	12	3	5	1	0	2	7	2	1/0	.417/.500/1.000	1.500	.429
Ausmus	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.500/.667/.500	1.167	.500
DeWitt	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0/0	.200/.200/.800	1.000	.000
Pierre	8	0	3	0	1	0	1	0	1/1	.375/.375/.625	1.000	.375
Castro	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.250/.250/.250	.500	.333
Loretta	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	.250/.200/.250	.450	.200
Mientkiewicz	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	-----
Repko	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Thome	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Ellis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Pitchers	13	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.000/.071/.000	.071	.000
Totals	205	36	54	11	3	11	33	24	7/1	.263/.345/.507	.852	.283

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Garland	2	2-0	--	14.0	13	3	2	3	6	1.29	1.143
Kuroda	1	1-0	--	6.0	6	1	1	0	7	1.50	1.000
Wolf	2	1-0	--	13.0	10	5	5	4	8	3.46	1.077
Padilla	1	0-0	--	5.0	8	4	4	1	3	7.20	1.800
Broxton	4	0-0	1	4.0	0	0	0	0	7	0.00	0.000
Sherrill	4	0-0	--	3.1	0	0	0	0	5	0.00	0.000
Kuo	3	0-0	--	3.0	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.000
McDonald	1	0-0	--	3.0	2	0	0	1	3	0.00	1.000
Belisario	2	1-0	--	2.1	1	1	0	1	2	0.00	0.857
Weaver	1	0-0	--	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	0.00	3.000
Mota	1	0-0	--	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.000
Billingsley	1	0-0	--	1.2	4	2	2	2	0	10.80	3.600
Troncoso	2	0-1	--	1.1	3	2	2	0	1	13.50	2.250
Totals	6	5-1	1	58.0	50	18	16	12	45	2.48	1.069