SB Nation - Ramon Martinez

Clippings from around the Dodger Blogosphere

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:31:13 -0000

Dodger Offensive Predictions for 2010 from CHONE by Sean Smith

I’m not going to single anyone out, since we’re all guilty of abusing FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement metric. But I’ve been seeing cases pop up…

Memories Of Kevin Malone: Bill Belichick And Dumb People

The MSTI 16-Step 2010 plan " Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness

Happy blast from the past | Dodger Thoughts | Los Angeles Times

I was able to get a glimpse of the MLB Network's rebroadcast of Ramon Martinez's 18-strikeout game, and two things struck me. 1) Martinez's stuff was electric. 2) So was his smile. Martinez got all 18 of his strikeouts before...

Pedro Guerrero " Cardboard Gods
Josh Wilker - Haven't linked to Josh for a while but here he is writing about one of my favorite Dodgers.

32 Seasons of zMLE

TheJay — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:00:17 -0000

At Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski has made available for download three decades of minor league to major league translations (he calls them zMLE). You may recognize his name as the brains behind the ZiPS projection system. You can find the spreadsheets and a discussion of his number crunching here.

It's pretty fun to go through and look at the numbers of Brewers minor leaguers who never got a shot in the big leagues.

Steve Scarborough was an organizational shortstop for seven years in the system and somehow managed to quit playing without stumbling into a hitting coach job. I only knew of him because I saw a player with a really long name listening intently to Ned Yost during a spring training special a few years back. Now I can see just how his stats would have translated into the majors:

Year	Team	Level	AVG/OBP/SLG	zMLE
1999	Helena Ogden	R R	.303/.402/.507	None
2000	Beloit	A	.241/.323/.316	.227/.289/.281
2001	High Desert	A+	.255/.335/.412	.219/.282/.306
2002	Huntsville Indianapolis	AA AAA	.265/.358/.418	.227/.303/.370
2003	Indianapolis	AAA	.241/.290/.388	.214/.264/.352
2004	Indianapolis	AAA	.246/.342/.383	.224/.319/.349
2005	Nashville	AAA	.255/.323/.413	.237/.293/.368

Okay, so I guess there's a reason he never made it to the big leagues. But still, how cool is it that this sort of thing is out there?

Some other players of interest are after the jump.

Tony Zuniga was a career minor leaguer when the Brewers picked him up in 2005. He started the season in Huntsville and wasn't particularly impressive in the first two months of the season, hitting only .258/.321/.342 in just over 200 plate appearances. He was promoted to Nashville when veteran Kevin Orie was released. Zuniga took off, hitting .323/.376/.472 in 255 plate appearances. As you might expect, his zMLEs were night and day as well:

AA zMLE: .247/.299/.335 --- AAA zMLE: .285/.329/.410

Odd years were Zuniga's favorite seasons, I guess, as he had even more impressive campaigns in AAA in 2001 and 2003:

2001 AAA: .271/.363/.504 ---> .258/.342/.403
2003 AAA: .295/.362/.510 ---> .270/.334/.464

In 2001, he was behind the 3B triumvirate of Russ Davis, Ramon Martinez, and Pedro Feliz in San Francisco. In 2003, he was behind a sophomore-slumping Eric Hinske. The 2005 Brewers had Russell Branyan, Bill Hall, and Jeff Cirillo manning the hot corner. It's kind of disappointing that Zuniga couldn't get a cup of coffee in one of those seasons. He played in the Mexican League in 2006 and then disappeared, having never appeared in the majors.

Derek Hacopian was an offensive force both in college and in the low minors. After three seasons hitting home runs in the Indians chain, injury limited him to only 79 plate appearances in 1994. Already 25 and having never appeared above A ball, he was roster filler for the Beloit Snappers in 2005. He hit 23 home runs and generally made Midwest League pitchers miserable that year, hitting only .324/.407/.552. His zMLE for that year was .279/.341/.441 - pretty good for someone in A ball, even if he was old for the league. His reward was being traded to the Tigers for reliever Kevin Wickander. Unfortunately for Hacopian, the Florida State League dampened his numbers and he was done in the minors after 1996.

Have you ever heard of a guy named Cheol-Sun Bak? How about Chel-Soon Park or Chel Sun Park? He was the first South Korean signed by a major league team - your very own Milwaukee Brewers. They signed him following a 1979 Korean-American baseball tournament and Park spent two seasons in the Milwaukee system before returning to Korea and having a crazy 24-4, 1.84 ERA season in the Korean Baseball Organization. Hampered by injuries, he never again came close to those numbers but pitched until 1996.

He threw only 32 1/3 innings in A ball in 1980, so there's not much to go on, but he still had a nice zMLE for a guy crossing an ocean: 3.03 ERA with 32 hits allowed, 9 walks, and 16 strikeouts. In 1981, he struggled as a starter at both Class A Stockton and Class AA El Paso and the Brewers let him go at the age of 25. It's interesting to think about what could have been if the Brewers had spent more time developing him, but you can't argue with their results in those years. Despite Jeff Sackmann's best efforts, the Brewers have yet to have a Korean player appear in a major league game (unless you count Tommy Phelps, born in Seoul).

Obviously there are many, many, many things you can do with a spreadsheet like this. These are just a few names that caught my eye right off the bat. I encourage you to download the info, peruse it yourself, and see if you can find anything interesting.

Omar Minaya Has To Go

Sam Page — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 10:00:14 -0000

In his opening press conference with the Mets, Omar Minaya immediately expressed a desire to make the team "younger and more athletic." In his ad-hoc press conference with the Mets yesterday, Minaya said (and I'm paraphrasing) "Were' investigating it with an investigation...We're going to investigate it....investigaty investigations."

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This season, as the Mets have fallen out of contention, calls for Omar Minaya's firing have expectantly increased. In fact, the rumblings were present before the team's slide, as the Oliver Perez contract looked like a bust from the get-go. The calls for Minaya's job, however, are hardly universal, as his defenders cite the bad luck with injuries. So the debate goes:

"Fire omAr!!"
"No, it's not his fault, too many injuries."
"He should have better backups."
"No team can lose three of their best hitters and win."

And that's where it ends. The Minaya-defenders often come out of this argument looking more rational, because the fire-Omar position boils down to "we're losing." The main argument defending Minaya, "no team can lose that many players and be good," often goes unchallenged. Which is a shame, since it's wrong. The Boston Red Sox play in the A.L. East and have a lower payroll than the Mets. They have a well above-average defense, offense, and pitching staff. If the Red Sox were to lose David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Tim Wakefield, and Hideki Okajima and be thrown into the N.L. East, they'd beat the Phillies by at least five games. Their pitching staff would still be about 80 runs better than the Phillies, while their offense would only be marginally downgraded by slotting Adam LaRoche, Lars Anderson, Rocco Baldelli, and Jed Lowrie in for the injured position players. They have so much pitching depth, they could lose Dice-K, Penny, and Wakefield and have a better rotation the next morning. The Mets, for the same payroll, have one of the the worst rotations in the league. The only (non-fictional) injury to that rotation this season has been John Maine, a player who could barely throw the ball before spring training opened.

That's why the injury responsibility debate is a red-herring. Yes, the Mets would be in contention without those injuries. I do not deny that. Still, they'd only be in contention because they have enough great players to outweigh otherwise shoddy roster construction in a weak division. This season has not changed my opinion of Omar Minaya, it's validated it. The same people who once crooned for the Oliver Perez signing are printing "Fire Omar" T-Shirts because a giant spotlight has been cast on the rest of the roster. The Mets have been successful because they have four of the best players in the National League all playing premium positions, half of whom Minaya acquired. As somewhat of a side note, that's why it's always hard to compare the Mets' injury situation to other teams. No single other team has their three best position players at premium defensive positions. If the Mets didn't dump their garbage at first and in left, they would run away with this division every year.

Which is the main problem: Omar Minaya simply has not put enough talent on the field to make the Mets a championship organization. They can make the playoffs. Every year, there's a good shot. But they don't, and that's because he's wasted too much money and left too many holes in the roster every year. The Phillies never acquired a Johan Santana, they didn't have to. They just sat there and waited for the Mets to get worse on their way to the title. It's funny, because I used to think finding complementary players was Minaya's strength, because he continually struck gold (mostly in the bullpen) with every little trade he made in 2006. From that article:

It may be luck, it may be skill. It may be the result of a team with money taking good calculated risks. Whatever it is, Minaya's had it this year.

Turns out it was luck. The strength of the 2006 Mets, their bullpen, was made of good, not great, relievers who had career years. Such is the nature of the bullpen; in such small sample sizes, it's basically a coin flip between Mota-2006 and Mota-2007. That's why smart teams fill their bullpen with players with skills, namely high strikeout rates, that avoid the luck element of balls in play. David Aardsma isn't some lucky fluke that has become a shutdown closer out of the blue. He's got great skills, and is a guy USSMariner identified as a potentially good reliever for the M's last year. The last two pitchers with such skills in the Mets organization? Heath Bell and Billy Wagner. One got a big contract, the other was given away. Instead of investing in pitchers like Bell, who miss bats, the Mets threw a bunch of money at the now-infamous Mota and Scott Schoeneweis, who's only skill is being left-handed. The Mets didn't realize how lucky they were on many counts that year, with Beltran's career year, LoDuca's fluky BABIP-inflated average, and Jose Valentin's existence. None of those things, including the performance of their entire bullpen, could be expected to return the next year, but they sat there like next season started with a re-do of Game 7.

This inability to construct a good bullpen and bench has led to another conclusion I was previously averse to: it's nearly impossible for a General Manager that shuns sabremetrics to be successful in today's game. The emphasis on smart money management, coupled with the rise of young, underpaid superstars, has left extremely well-managed small-market teams like the Rays in too good a position. This point is NOT some trite stats vs. scouts argument, because obviously the Rays would be much worse off without the guys who take a radar gun down to Vanderbilt to watch David Price. Simply put, people who consider themselves scouts, and oppose sabremetrics, should not be put in charge of the asset management elements of a team (i.e. the position of General Manager). Besides Minaya, I would say Bill Smith of the Twins is a great example of this principle. The Twins are successful because they drafted a slew of good pitchers and Joe Mauer. Still, Bill Smith's tenure as GM has been mixed because he hasn't properly gotten maximum value for his money, trading Johan Santana, extending Jason Kubel, trading for Delmon Young, among other questionable moves.

I think Omar Minaya is a good scout, who knows how to get "his guy". That's proven by the acquisitions of Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana. Still, no one with a reasonable grip on advanced fielding metrics would throw $4 million this offseason at Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, and Rob Mackowiak. That's Dayton Moore, "I can see who can field," territory of roster mismanagement. That's why people are right the Mets shouldn't be this bad with this amount of money, why the Buffalo Bisons are so freaking awful. The Mets build depth, useless, counterproductive depth. Ramon Martinez and Angel Berroa will only make your team worse, there are better players out there making league minimum. Good GMs simply don't employ these types of players, at the risk they somehow have to use them.

That being said, I don't blame Omar Minaya for not having enough prospects to fill in for this season's injuries. Few teams can just call up top prospects for a bunch of positions they actually had blocked anyway. The two players the Mets could have most used this season, Carlos Gomez and Mike Carp, were traded with the intention of making the big league roster better. I think Minaya's doing a good job with the farm, despite his foolish reluctance to bust slot in the draft. When he does get a first-round pick, he hits, and when he hands out a big bonus to an international free-agent, they more often than not work out. That's why I think it's ludicrous the Mets are looking to make the scouting department a scapegoat this season (really, no medical staff?). Sorry John Harper, you missed the whole point, Mejia and Holt are great.

Instead, I think the larger problem, and my second big criticism of Minaya, is that he lacks a coherent plan. I don't mean Minaya's plan is just to sign big free agents and trade the farm, despite what that one anonymous scout assigned to Buffalo has been telling all the Mets beat writers. No, Minaya lacks coherent plans to build a complete team, which relates to the idea of complementary players discussed above. If I could condense this entire critique down to one word it would be "myopic." In 2008, Minaya focused on starting pitching and got Santana, leaving the bullpen an open wound. This offseason, it was all-bullpen all-the time and the Mets fielded their worst starting rotation in recent memory. Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez are the Ramon Martinez and Angel Berroa of the starting rotation. They don't eat innings, they cancel out Johan's contributions. The Mets rotation, despite featuring Johan Santana, are 23.8 runs below the average staff, somehow worse than a team that has Joe Blanton, Chan Ho Park, and Jamie Moyer.

The most annoying part of this offseason, indeed, was Minaya's insistence that they couldn't pursue outfielders because "they were working on their pitching." Coming from a team that "brainstormed" Francoeur-for-Church, that excuse just rings pathetic. Hey Mr. Wilpon, there are 100,000 Mets fans on the internet everyday who fix your bullpen AND lineup during their lunchbreak, and they do it for free (albeit with varying levels of success).

Before this season, I thought the Mets could win, but only in spite of what Minaya had done. The most positive move he had made was signing Gary Sheffield, a guy who even Gary Sheffield thought would be a pinch-hitter. Alas, Sheffield became the one player holding the Mets together, not because he is really that good, but because the "plan" in left was one Daniel Murphy, who had modest success in AA and a fluky BABIP in the majors the year before. Just to prove hindsight isn't 20-20, I humbly submit that I had these same qualms before the season, including Oliver Perez possibly exploding, the core getting injured, Maine's arm falling off, and Murphy being bad. The difference between my optimism then and my apathy now is all that bad stuff happened, and everyone gets to watch those holes in the roster magnified times 100.

The in-season management has only exacerbated the problem. The Santos-trade, the Francoeur-trade, and the release of Darren O'Day (has a better tRA in the American League than K-Rod has on the Mets right now), have been plain stupid. If Minaya's saving grace is identifying talent, I'm worried.

Amidst all this Bernazard craziness, Peter Gammons said something interesting yesterday about Tony B. undermining Minaya by both having a stronger relationship with Wilpon and by being the architect of the laughable minor-league depth. I'm not sure whether that reflects better or worse on Omar, but either way it suggests he's losing control of the team. I'm starting a campaign. It's not "FIRE OMAR." It's "Fire Bernazard, demote Minaya." The biggest defense of Minaya is that he brought the team out of obscurity, which is partially true. But if this season has taught us anything, it's that Steve Phillips' baseball intellect can make anyone look good. The Mets need a Chris Antonini or a Neal Huntington, a young dynamic leader who understands the finer points of player value to finish off the job Minaya started.

Omar Minaya is the scout who discovered Jose Reyes, not the General Manager who is going to put a ring on his finger.

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Freeway Series, Episode V: The Dodgers Strike Back

Brendan Scolari — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 00:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

6 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' James Loney celebrates his solo home run in the dugout during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, June 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Tonight the Dodgers will again be taking on the Angels, looking for revenge after a tough loss yesterday. The Dodgers have only lost 13 of their last 18 games against the Angels, including 8 of their last 9 at Angel Stadium. The Dodgers are unbeaten in their last seven series, going 5-0-2, but if they lose tonight their unbeaten streak will be over. The last time the Dodgers lost a series was when the played the Angels at home in LA.

Jeff Weaver makes his first start since May 20th, and he will be facing off against his brother Jered Weaver. They will be the eigth set of brothers to start against one another in a major league game. Here's the full list of brother vs. brother matchups via Retrosheet:

Brothers	Times	Most Recent
Alan and Andy Benes	1	2002
Ramon and Pedro Martinez	1	1996
Greg and Mike Maddux	2	1988
Joe and Phil Niekro	9	1982
Pat and Tom Underwood	1	1979
Jim and Gaylord Perry	1	1973
Jess and Virgil Barnes	5	1926

Weaver will be looking for the first win in June by a non-Billingsley Dodger starter. The Dodgers' starters are currently 0-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 63.2 IP over 13 games.

Here's the lineups for tonight's game:

Lineup

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels

06/20/09 6:05 PM PDT

Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Angels
Juan Pierre - LF	Chone Figgins - 3B
Rafael Furcal - SS	Bobby Abreu - RF
Orlando Hudson - 2B	Torii Hunter - CF
James Loney - 1B	Vladimir Guerrero - DH
Casey Blake - 3B	Juan Rivera - LF
Andre Ethier - RF	Kendry Morales - 1B
Mark Loretta - DH	Maicer Izturis - 2B
Russell Martin - C	Jeff Mathis - C
Matt Kemp - CF	Erick Aybar - SS

I don't think I need to mention the absurdity of having the player with the highest wOBA on the team who is not suspended bat 9th. At least there's no back-to-back lefties this time. Baby steps, people.

Get your guesses in for "She Is Gone" here.

Box Score | Baseball Reference Preview | Gameday <<

The Cruelest Month (revised)

dajafi — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:41:10 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels are all among the Phillies whose career numbers for the month of June badly lag their overall production. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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I just got back very late last night from a two-week trip to Australia and Japan, to find that the Phillies had dropped the first two games of their series against the Toronto Blue Jays; this afternoon, I had the dubious pleasure of watching most of the finale, which the team also lost. The result wasn't surprising, as the Phillies have stunk on ice in interleague play pretty much since the outset of Bud Selig's experiment more than a decade ago. But as others pointed out here and on Back She Goes!, the problem might not be interleague so much as the mysterious yet consistent bad vibes that seem to follow Charlie Manuel's team every time the calendar turns to June.

Actually, the Phils haven't been a complete disaster in the season's third month; since the start of Manuel's tenure, they have a collective 59-66 (.472) record in June, which certainly isn't good but is hardly the stuff of baseball nightmares. It just looks crappy compared to the club's overall 390-322 (.548) mark since the start of the 2005 season. And it's actually slightly worse than the team's cumulative record in April (57-63, .475), usually considered the roughest month for the team. Add that June has been the team's worst month in three of the last four seasons, including this one, and has seen more serious injuries than any other month, and you start to get the idea.

So join me, if you dare, for a brief tour of the last five Junes--the true cruelest month for the Manuel-era Phillies.

2005: 15-12 (.556), 135 runs scored/135 runs against. Okay, this doesn't look too bad... until you consider that the month began with the team on an 11-1 streak that actually started on May 31--the day I got married, as it happened. Then from June 14-30, the Phillies went 4-11 and lost five straight series—three in interleague play and two against the Mets. These included the notorious road interleague series at Seattle and Oakland, in which the Phils lost four of six while playing the likes of Tomas Perez and Ramon Martinez at first place as an injured Jim Thome DH’d. Meanwhile, a young slugger named Ryan Howard continued to tear up the International League. Notable transactions in June 2005 included the highly questionable trade of Placido Polanco to Detroit for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez, as well as a release and re-signing of Amaury Telemaco. Appropriately enough, Thome’s season (and, as it turned out, his Phillies career) ended on June 30 after he went 0-10 in three games against the Mets. The team lost five straight, tied for its worst losing streak of the 2005 season, from June 23-28.

2006: 9-18 (.333), 120/165. The Phillies began June two games over .500 and in striking distance of the Mets in the NL East. And they actually fared pretty well for the first week of the month, winning five of seven after sweeping Arizona… and then the bottom fell out, as they lost three of four to the Nationals and were swept at home by the Mets to fall 9.5 games back and essentially exit the division race. But things got even worse as interleague began: series losses at home to the still-awful Devil Rays and Yankees, the seemingly annual sweep by Boston, and two more series losses at Baltimore and Toronto. Though the team eventually recovered to surge back into the division race, they ultimately fell short of a playoff spot—largely because of the hole they dug for themselves back in June. The month included the signing and sole Phillies appearance (which, not coincidentally, proved to be the last career appearance) of pitcher Adam Bernero. as well as the pickup of Rick White and the trade of Daniel Haigwood to Texas for Fabio "Model Dictator" Castro. Randy Wolf was lost for the season after going six innings against the Brewers on June 11. The Phillies’ worst losing streak of the year, seven games, ran from June 20-28.

2007: 15-13 (.536), 143/166. The outlier, in which the Phils put up a winning record despite getting badly outscored for the month. June began in characteristic fashion, with a 13-0 loss to the Giants at home, but afterward things picked up. They even did fairly well in interleague play by Phillies standards (6-6), albeit against the weak-sister AL Central. The month did end with three straight losses to the Mets, including the major-league debut of J.A. Happ. Notable transactions included one awful free-agent signing (Jose Mesa) and one very good one (J.C. Romero). The bad June injury of 2007? Jon Lieber, who blew out his knee at Cleveland on June 20, two starts after throwing a complete-game shutout at Kansas City. Freddy Garcia was also lost for the year; on the plus side, Kyle Kendrick was recalled to replace him.

2008: 12-14 (.462), 112/101. The Phils’ sole losing month (not including March, in which they played one game and lost) in their championship season. Again, it wasn’t until the second week of June that things went south; through June 13, the team had a 9-3 record for the month, culminating with a 20-2 blowout of the Carindals in St. Louis that marked the eighth time in 53 games that the team had scored in double digits (and their second 20-run performance in 17 games). It was also the last time the Phils would crack 10 runs until July 26; they’d score 12 more the next day, and that was it for double-digits in 2008. After June 13, the Phils scored 47 runs in their 14 remaining games during the month (an average of 3.4), and were held to two runs or fewer in eight of those games; through their first 69 games, they had scored 373 runs (an average of 5.4), and been held to two or fewer just 13 times. Probably not coincidentally, Chase Utley's marked offensive falloff began in mid-June; it's likely that he sustained the hip injury that bedeviled him through the remainder of 2008 around that time. The team had its worst losing streak of the season (six games) from June 17-24.

2009 (through June 18): 8-8 (.500), 81/76. Again, it’s tough to differentiate between the Phillies’ interleague struggles and their general pattern of sucking in June; this year, the team’s inexplicable struggles at home (8-18 against all non-Nationals opponents) adds another layer to the story. The just-concluded 1-5 stretch against Boston and Toronto made this June look much worse than it did a week ago; on the other hand, the month already has seen Brad Lidge, Scott Eyre and most recently Raul Ibanez to the disabled list, and Ryan Howard has dropped down his annual rabbit hole with 27 strikeouts and a .232 average in 69 June at-bats.

The good news? The team has just ten games left this month, around off-days on the 22^nd and 29^th. And maybe the rain will keep up.

Phillies at Mets: June 9-11

Matt Swartz — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Cole Hamels and the Phillies head to New York to face the Mets. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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The Phillies (33-22) head back east to face their rivals up north, The New York Mets (30-25), this week for a three games series. The Mets have taken three of four games from the Phillies thus far in the season series, but the Phillies will get a chance to go up against a very hobbled Mets team. The Mets are without four above average baseball players-- Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Oliver Perez, J.J. Putz-- and a number of people who replaced them, including Angel Pagan and Ramon Martinez. Many others have had injuries as well. With probably 13 WAR of talent on the DL, the Mets are an average team, and the Phillies are not. With a three game lead, it's pretty clear how much this series can tell the story. If the Mets sweep, the Phillies early advantage will have completely eroded. If the Phillies sweep, the Phillies will have built a six-game lead that people will be floored if they lose. If the Phillies take two of three, they come out with a solid four game lead, and if the Mets take two of three, they have closed the gap to just two games. Clearly, a lot of the story of the first 58 games depends on this series.

The Mets sent their ace, Johan Santana, to the mound against the Phillies' J.A. Happ for game one. This doesn't look promising for the Phillies, but the two faced off once before with an outcome that many did not expect.

In game two, the Phillies will send out their ace, Cole Hamels, to the mound, against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has a mediocre ERA of 4.85, but even that is lucky as he has allowed exactly zero homeruns this year on 60 flyballs-- which probably has lowered his ERA by nearly a point and a half.

The series finale will pit Jamie Moyer up against Tim Redding in a game that could very well screw with the CitiField park factors. Moyer has put together a couple solid starts in a row, but still has struggled mightily this season, especially against good teams. Tim Redding is probably not who the Mets intended to throw out against the Phillies in possible rubber matches, but then, again Alex Cora wasn't their intended shortstop either.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Johan Santana (L)

Wednesday, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Mike Pelfrey (R)

Thursday, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Tim Redding (R)

(Thursday starter typo edited thanks to some helpful comments)

METS

LINE UP

1) IF Alex Cora (L): .297/.403/.406

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .277/.378/.329

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

3) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .342/.436/.554

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .259/.394/.455

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B David Wright (R): .345/.448/.500

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

6) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .247/.330/.370

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

7) RF Ryan Church (L): .277/.331/.362

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(8) C Brian Schneider (L): .219/.316/.313

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .261/.287/.435

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Wilson Valdez (R): .200/.238/.350

proj: .245/.305/.340
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 59%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: slightly poor eye, somewhat impatient, average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .526 vs .535 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .594 vs .459 ops; 1.6 vs 10.5 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Martinez (L): .200/.300/.314

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .311/.344/.393

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .273/.345/.404

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez: (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 2.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 13/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/22, 0 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 2/20, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/20, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 6/17, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K

WEDNESDAY'S OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.85 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/15, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 5/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Tim Redding (R): 6.97 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.11 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/32, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Howard: 3/21, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 9 K
Utley: 8/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/16, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 2/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.99 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Livan Hernandez (R): 3.88 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.22 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.12 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 0.68 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.78 ERA, 26% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/7, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 1.96 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.35 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.25 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/25, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Fernando Nieve (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.49 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Sean Green (R): 5.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1 BB

Ken Takahashi (L): 2.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 39% GB

Takahashi vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .222/.261/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.343/.467

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .296/.438/.548

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .259/.337/.577

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.355/.437

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .329/.386/.676

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .306/.361/.425

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .309/.435/.511

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .229/.341/.414

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.212/.239

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .188/.273/.354

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .324/.500/.618

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.87 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY'S STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.40 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Pagan: 2/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.27 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 6.09 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 13/59, 3 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 16/38, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/30, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 4/17, 2 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Tatis: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.48 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 2/6, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.22 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.89 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/14, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1 Sac

Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.78 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Beltran: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 1 BB
Pagan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Pagan: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.80 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/15, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Reed: 3/14, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.79 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Some Myths Surrounding These Mets

Sam Page — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:00:18 -0000

Sean Green is bad or "the new Heilman": Green's 4.33 tRA is basically the same as Stokes' or Takahashi's and is above average. He's getting 56.2% GB, which isn't his usual absurd number, but is still great. His strikeout and walk % are in line with his career norms. The difference? He gave up 3 homers, the same number he gave up in all of 80 innings last year. The homeruns, coupled with some early struggles with command, made a few bad outings look like a breakdown. His ERA last year was already betrayed by the Mariners' terrible up-the-middle infield, making him underrated before the season. He can pitch the same way he has for the past two years and easily finish the year with an ERA <4.

J.J. Putz was good, then got hurt: J.J. Putz was damaged goods all year. No pitcher succeeds with 1 K:BB ratio. He just got exposed in his last three outings and finally accepted an injury that was already there.

David Wright "changed his game" to be more speed than power: Wright's hitting the exact same number of line drives, groundballs, and flyballs he's hit his entire career. His 5.3% HR/FB is probably just a combination of bad luck and Citi Field. His 417.7 average homerun distance is actually up from last year (obviously sample size disclaimer). Maybe he's faster but with 8 CS, I doubt he's sustainable .462 BABIP fast.

Brian Stokes gets skipped over for lesser relievers: I've been guilty of this sentiment, but tRA suggests he's been just as good as Green in nearly the same number of innings. I still feel there were plenty of situations where he should have been brought in instead of Putz, and if he can improve his K% that tRA will be much prettier.

Jeremy Reed is a good defensive replacement in the outfield: Reed has a -1.4 UZR so far this season for the Mets. While I'd like to dismiss that as the insignificant sample size it is, he's -4.2 on his career, mainly due to his Juan Pierre-esque arm. Congrats Jeremy, you're a rangy corner outfielder with no arm, no bat, and -.2 WAR, again. At least he's consistent.

Jon Niese has been a bust so far in AAA: Covered here. He's done nothing since then to prove me right, but his season numbers in Buffalo to date only suggest it's impossible to pitch well on that godforsaken team, not that he's pitched poorly.

Omir Santos

David Wright has been streaky this year: Sure, but anymore so than usual? Or any other player for that matter? His OBP hasn't dropped below .371. You be the judge:

via www.fangraphs.com

The Mets had good depth, but got unlucky with injuries: You really expect them to have a good third-string shortstop??? Sort of. Not good, but better than Ramon Martinez. For some, the quality of your AAA team is indicative of the quality of the Major League Team. Although that's four kinds of nuts, the Mets certainly have demonstrated it helps not to have a total bunch of scrubs on the farm, both for depth, and so you don't ruin two prospects who were considered to make the team out of spring training. Also, depth isn't just the back-up guys, it's also the people you trust from the beginning. Daniel Murphy was prematurely removed from the outfield after "the experiment failed" and Ryan Church got another injury. It's not that the Mets haven't just had bad backups the past two years, it's that they haven't had good complimentary type starters in the first place. Daniel Murphy is the kind of tweener you keep on your bench because he can fill multiple roles with the inevitable injury to the 38 year-old firstbaseman happens. Moises Alou. Luis Castillo. Manderson. Wow, trade for Adam Dunn because he's a power hitting outfielder who can fill in for Delgado? Great idea! Where have I heard that before?

HAHA I WAS RIGHT! Oliver Perez stinks!: Oliver Perez has become a great I-told-you-so moment for many of us, but that's gotten old, and we all have to accept he's with the team for another couple of years. Yes, it was stupid move. Minaya essentially gambled the whole rotation on the hope a historically erratic pitcher would repeat his 2007 season. Still, just as so many Mets fans decided he was once good, too soon have they condemned the contract as a failure. Oliver Perez was good as lately as two years ago, and he wasn't terrible last year. He's immensely talented and this year's version of Oliver Perez clearly isn't right, even for his standards. The velocity drop suggests something's physically wrong, whether it be injury, or conditioning, or whatever. There's still a chance he could come back and be decent, maybe even good. If he's right, the Mets shouldn't be pressured in keeping him out of the rotation for Redding or whoever. I own an Oliver Perez jersey.

John Maine's been good, not great: He's been bad, and I'm worried. He peripherals rank near the bottom of all eligible starting pitchers. He's not getting hitters to chase. I know he's coming off injury, and that I urged patience with him earlier, but the improvements since April have been modest, if existent at all. 6.09 tRA. Just sayin'.

Murphy's good. No maybe he's bad: or maybe he's just neither. His unlucky BABIP suggests he's not this bad, but he may not be the hitting machine. Lets this one play out.

The Mets need to focus on building for next year: There's plenty of time left, so I don't agree with all the doomsaying anyway. Still, this sentiment makes no sense. What do these people want Minaya to do, trade veterans? He'd be fired for giving up. And who's left to trade? Church? I can't imagine that would be much more than a lateral move, as low as his value is. If building for next year means committing to prospects, then the one ML-ready prospect is already playing. Gee and Niese will have to wait for Fatty to be full. Anything else would just be needlessly rushing a player.

Juan Pierre & The .400 Club

Eric Stephen — Sat, 30 May 2009 05:02:15 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre is in rarefied air with his amazing May performance.

Browse more photos »

Since moving to Los Angeles in 1958, the Dodgers have had many players hit .400 in a single month. There have been 67 separate .400 months, in fact, with a minimum of 20 plate appearances.

There have been a number of LA Dodgers who have joined the .400 club multiple times, including:

Pedro Guerrero: 4 times
Don Drysdale: 3 times
Mike Piazza: 3 times
Steve Garvey: twice
Dave Hansen: twice
Eric Karros: twice
Paul LoDuca: twice
Olmedo Saenz: twice
Terry Whitefield: twice

Juan Pierre, who went eight for 20 in April to join the .400 club, is close to becoming the first LA Dodger to hit .400 in consecutive months. He currently has 40 hits in 101 at-bats, good for a .39604 average for the month. With two games left in the month, depending on at-bats, Pierre will need the following number of hits to rejoin the .400 club:

Hits/AB	May AVG
1 for 1	.4020
2 for 2	.4078
2 for 3	.4038
2 for 4	.4000
3 for 5	.4057
3 for 6	.4019
4 for 7	.4074
4 for 8	.4037
4 for 9	.4000
5 for 10	.4054

If we increase the minimum to 50 plate appearances, there have been 27 different .400 months in Los Angeles Dodger history, with Pierre trying to become #28.

Incidentally, Juan Castro is 13 for 34 in May. He's at .38235, but if he goes one for one this weekend he will join the .400 club as well.

Read after the jump for the complete list of .400 months in LA Dodger history.

.400 months in LA Dodger history (minimum 20 PA)

Player	Month	AB	Hits	Avg
Eric Karros	Apr 1995	19	11	.579
Mike Piazza	May 1995	34	18	.529
Raul Mondesi	Apr 1995	19	10	.526
Mike Kinkade	Sep 2002	14	7	.500
Terry Whitfield	Aug 1984	23	11	.478
Mark Loretta	Apr 2009	19	9	.474
Andre Ethier	Sep 2008	78	36	.462
Pedro Guerrero	Jul 1985	63	29	.460
Willie Davis	Aug 1969	109	50	.459
Antonio Perez	May 2005	35	16	.457
Ramon Martinez	May 2006	31	14	.452
Olmedo Saenz	Aug 2004	20	9	.450
Tom Haller	Aug 1971	38	17	.447
Jeff Kent	Jul 2007	76	34	.447
Sandy Koufax	Jul 1965	18	8	.444
Steve Yeager	Apr 1974	18	8	.444
Bob Lillis	Sep 1958	61	27	.443
Brett Butler	Jul 1992	95	42	.442
Sandy Alomar	Apr 2006	25	11	.440
James Loney	Jun 2007	50	22	.440
Bill Buckner	Jul 1972	57	25	.439
Nomar Garciaparra	Sep 2008	23	10	.435
McKay Christensen	Jul 2001	30	13	.433
Dave Hansen	Sep 1995	30	13	.433
Lee Lacy	Apr 1975	37	16	.432
Jim Gilliam	Jun 1959	109	47	.431
Mike Piazza	Jun 1997	109	47	.431
Steve Garvey	Sep 1978	107	46	.430
Don Drysdale	May 1965	21	9	.429
Ted Sizemore	Aug 1970	98	42	.429
Ron Cey	Apr 1977	73	31	.425
Don Drysdale	Aug 1958	19	8	.421
Eric Karros	Apr 1998	19	8	.421
Don Drysdale	Sep 1965	24	10	.417
Pedro Guerrero	Sep 1980	24	10	.417
Wally Moon	Apr 1961	60	25	.417
Tim Wallach	Aug 1994	36	15	.417
Paul LoDuca	Apr 2004	77	32	.416
Manny Ramirez	Aug 2008	106	44	.415
Pedro Guerrero	Jul 1987	82	34	.415
Pedro Guerrero	Sep 1987	99	41	.414
Rick Monday	Aug 1982	29	12	.414
Delino DeShields	Aug 1995	51	21	.412
Steve Garvey	Jun 1973	34	14	.412
Jerry Reuss	Sep 1983	17	7	.412
Olmedo Saenz	May 2004	17	7	.412
Duke Snider	Sep 1958	34	14	.412
Eddie Murray	Sep 1990	112	46	.411
Wes Parker	Jul 1970	95	39	.411
Norm Larker	Jul 1958	78	32	.410
Billy Ashley	Jul 1997	22	9	.409
Dave Hansen	Jul 2002	22	9	.409
Hundley, Todd	Jul 2000	27	11	.407
Mike Piazza	Sep 1997	96	39	.406
Mike Sharperson	May 1992	37	15	.405
Jose Hernandez	May 2004	42	17	.405
Willie Crawford	May 1973	94	38	.404
Mike Scioscia	Apr 1988	52	21	.404
Mickey Hatcher	Jun 1989	25	10	.400
Frank Howard	Jul 1961	30	12	.400
Tom Hutton	Jul 1969	20	8	.400
Stan Javier	Jun 1990	65	26	.400
Paul LoDuca	Aug 1999	30	12	.400
Mike Piazza	Aug 1995	115	46	.400
Juan Pierre	Apr 2009	20	8	.400
Joe Pignatano	Sep 1959	20	8	.400
Terry Whitfield	Jul 1985	20	8	.400

For ease of research, March games were couned in April, and October games were counted in September. Thanks to the amazing Baseball-Reference.com for providing the vehicle to do this research.

MLB Replay Broken? Mets Get HR Call No One Can See, Win 7-4, Sweep Nationals.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 28 May 2009 03:53:15 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

6 months ago: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann looks toward the outfield as the umpires discuss Daniel Murphy's sixth-inning hit in a baseball game at Citi Field in New York, Wednesday, May 27, 2009. After a video review, umpires ruled it a two-run home run. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

HEADLINES:

MLB REPLAY MYSTERY...

For the second time this series, a disputed HR goes against the visiting Washington Nationals as the design of Citi Field helps the home team...The New York Mets' defensively-challenged replacement first baseman Daniel Murphy hits a fly ball to left off DC starter Jordan Zimmermann, and everyone assumes it's out until it falls in fair, and bounces on the track...Adam Dunn, who'd played it like it was a HR, throws in for an out on a play at the plate...? And we're going to the videotape...

(FLASHBACK) - Monday Night, Citi Field...

6th Inning, NY 1 DC 1...DC lefty John Lannan walks Carlos Beltran to put two on for Gary Sheffield. Sheffield explodes on the first pitch, a high heater, and sends one out to deeep left and GONE!! 3-run home ru...wait, a fan touched it...going to review...and the call on the field is upheld. 4-1 New York...

Tonight it was right field in Citi Field...and it seemed at first as if Daniel Murphy had connected for a HR, I thought it hit off the facade of the second deck and fell back into right field, but each replay I saw had me less and less convinced, there was not one replay shown that provided irrefutable evidence, unless the Umpires had a different definitive camera angle that just wasn't shown on any broadcast?...It was not called a HR on the field, so in order to overturn it, there has to be "clear and convincing evidence"...If they have it I'd like to see it...?

DUNN HITS ONE OVER THE BRIDGE!!!

Adam Dunn steps to the plate with the Washington Nationals trailing the Mets 3-0 in the fourth with NY's ace Johan Santana on the mound and DC's Face of the Franchise, Ryan Zimmerman, who'd walked to open the frame, standing on first...Fastball high and over the middle, Dunn fouls it off...Santana comes back with another fastball, low and outside, ball one...1-1 fastball, "What are you doing in there?" Dunn asks, and Adam Dun--SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Two-run HR to right center that clears the fence...and the BRIDGE?!! Adam Dunn just hit a HR out of Citi Field and onto the bridge in the outfield...I'm going to guess...well it's 378ft at the wall...450ft? 470ft? Unreal...

SO THAT'S HOW A STRUGGLING ACE WINS...

The Washington Nationals had 3 hits, scored 3 runs, walked 6 times and K'd 11 times while the NY Mets' left-handed ace Johan Santana was on the mound tonight. Santana got just 1 ground ball out and 6 flyouts from the 27 batters he faced...threw 120 pitches, 73 for strikes, gave up one monumental HR to Adam Dunn, and then left the game in the sixth, after he'd issued a leadoff walk before retiring three straight, and Santana then watched as Daniel Murphy's disputed HR gave him the lead and eventually the "W", improving his '09 record to (7-2) in 10 starts.

The Nationals' rookie right-hander Jordan Zimmermann gave up two runs in the first, and one in the third, but before he gave up the HR to Murphy in the sixth, he was tied, 3-3, going toe-to-toe with (arguably) the best pitcher in baseball. Before the HR, Zimmermann had allowed 6 hits, 3 runs and 2 walks while striking out 8 Mets. 100 pitches, 66 for strikes, 6 groundouts, 0 flyouts...

Notes:

• Ron Vill0.00ne walks the one batter he faces, but the run doesn't score, Vill0.00ne remains perfect...

• Mets' closer Francisco Rodriguez got a grounder to first for what should have been the final out of the game, but NY's defensively challenged replacement first baseman Daniel Murphy couldn't come up with Cristian Guzman's ground ball. Nick Johnson follows with a trademark NJ™ single to drive in his 26th run...The run raises Francisco Rodriguez's '09 ERA to 0.79...

• The massive Dunn HR was the Big Dunn-K's 16th HR, the two RBI's give Dunn 42 in 47 games and 166 at bats, in which he's hit, .283 with a .417 OBP, .608 SLG, 1.026 OPS...

THE CORRECT ANSWER, NICK JOHNSON, IS "NO! I WOULD NEVER PLAY FOR THE METS!"

The "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo made it known, as clearly as possible yesterday, which Nationals players were being offered around the league, when he told newsday.com writer Ken Davidoff, in an article entitled, "Nationals are building for the future", that the following Nationals were available:

"'Nick Johnson, or (Josh) Willingham, or (Austin) Kearns, anyone on our roster, if we can make a good baseball trade and improve ourselves, not only for our present but also for our future -- a player that can impact us -- we have to make those kinds of trades...'"

Daily News Sports Writer Peter Botte quotes DC first baseman Nick Johnson, in article entitled, "Nick Johnson wouldn't be against bringing first aid to the Mets", responding to the rumors of the Mets' interest in his services by stating:

"'I can't worry about rumors or any of that stuff...I don't deal with anything until it happens.... But I enjoyed (New York). Fans are into it, they want to win. It's all about winning and that's what I want to play for, to get that ring on my finger. I definitely had a good time while I was here those three years.'"

Yahoo! Sports' writer Gordon Edes puts some names behind the NY/Nick Johnson rumors in an article entitled, "Trade winds begin as a breeze", where Mr. Edes writes:

"...the Nationals have scouts watching the Mets’ Triple-A team in Buffalo, N.Y., and Double-A team in Binghamton, N.Y., evaluating pitchers Jon Niese, Mike Antonini and Eddie Kunz among others...The linchpin to the potential deal from Washington’s perspective may be Bobby Parnell..."

Asked back in Mr. Davidoff's column, what he thought of the recent rumors about a trade with the Red Sox involving Johnson and reliever Manny Delcarmen, the "Acting" DC GM, Mr. Rizzo told Mr. Davidoff, "That was never proposed to anybody. That was never rejected by anybody. It was fabricated by somebody." I wonder what Mr. Rizzo will have to say about this new round of rumors?

Mets win, 7-4 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful (And A Few Interlopers) Were Watching...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 13-33.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets. Game 46 of 162.

Cristian Guzman takes a swing at a 1-2 change down low for a swinging K to start the evening. Nick “Two-Spot” Johnson sends a sharp grounder up the middle that Ramon Ramirez miraculously gets to, but the throw to first bounces on Daniel Murphy, Johnson’s safe. Ryan Zimmerman takes a 3-2 pitch up high for ball four and two on in front of Adam Dunn. Dunn-K goes down on a low two-strike fastball inside. Josh Willingham gets called out looking on a low fastball outside to end the top of the first...Jordan Zimmermann gets Angel Pagan swinging for the first out and K. Luis Castillo whips his bat at a full-count fastball, slicing a single to left. Castillo’s running on a full-count fastball, and Wright sends it through short allowing Castillo to take third ahead of Willingham’s throw. Gary Sheffield gets a hanging slider outside and drives it to the right of center for a two-RBI double and a 2-0 lead. Daniel Murphy gets punched out by the the ump at third on a fastball inside he can’t decide what to do with. 93 mph on the outside edge, and Ramon Castro K’s looking to end the inning.

Ronnie Belliard pops the second pitch he sees out to short. Justin Maxwell’s never seen Johan Santana’s change, he K’s looking at it. Wil Nieves grounds to short and Johan Santana has a quick scoreless second...Fernando Martinez gets thrown out by Ronnie Belliard on a grounder up the middle. Ramon Martinez stares at strike three. Johan Santana K’s swinging.

Jordan Zimmermann picks up a bat in the third, but doesn’t connect, though he tries. 2-2 change over the heart of the plate and under Guzman’s bat. Johan Santana gets Nick Johnson, who’s late on a two-strike fastball...The ball pops out of Guzman’s glove as he chases Angel Pagan’s short fly. Luis Castillo gets down a bunt, Zimmerman’s all over it but no one’s on first. Zimmermann throws a 2-2 fastball to a frozen Wright. Ryan Zimmerman takes a chopper from Sheffield off the chest, and has to settle for the force at second on what should be a DP. Nick Johnson dives in front of Sheffield at first, but can’t come up with Daniel Murphy’s grounder. Pagan scores, 3-0 Mets. Ramon Castro grounds into a force at second.

Ryan Zimmerman works the count full and takes a leadoff walk in front of Dunn. Adam Dun---SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Adam Dunn hits the bridge in right center with a two-run blast. 3-2 Mets. Josh Willingham singles off Santana, but Ronnie Belliard flies out unproductively. Justin Maxwell takes a walk, and there are two on for Wil Nieves, who strikes out swinging for the second out, but Jordan Zimmermann walks to keep it alive. Cristian Guzman takes a 2-2 change, bases loaded, the full count pitch...is high, Guzman walks, tied at 3-3. Nick Johnson pops out to short center to end the inning!!...Fernando Martinez is out at first on a grounder to the mound. Wil Nieves pops out of the crouch to field a swinging bunt from Ramon Martinez. Jordan Zimmermann gets the opposing pitcher to put the Mets down in order in the fourth.

Ryan Zimmerman gets a two-strike change off the outside edge, for a swinging K. Adam Dunn pushes Fernando Martinez back to the wall 378 ft from home in right, where the rookie makes the catch. Josh Willingham gets punched out by the Ump at first, who says he went around...Ryan Zimmerman throws to first in time to get Angel Pagan for the first out of the Mets’ fifth. Jordan Zimmermann issues a one-out walk to Luis Castillo. David Wright K’s swinging late at a heater. Zimmermann’s eighth K ends the fifth.

Ronnie Belliard takes a full-count pitch from Johan Santana. Justin Maxwell gets a 92 mph 1-2 fastball upstairs and K’s swinging for the first out of the sixth. Angel Pagan runs a looong way to catch up to Wil Nieves’ fly ball. Jordan Zimmermann gets as far as the warning track in center, where Pagan catches the final outo of the frame...Jordan Zimmermann issues a leadoff walk to Gary Sheffield. Daniel Murphy goes deep? The ball drops in play, possibly off the wall? Dunn throws in and the Nationals nail Sheffield at home!!! They go the replay. It’s called a HR. 5-3 Mets. Ramon Castro doubles to left, Willingham misses it. Jordan Zimmermann out, Ron Vill0.00ne on to face Fernando Martinez. Martinez pops up to the catcher, Wil Nieves has it bounce off his head, but Martinez doesn’t run, gets thrown out. Vill0.00ne walks Ramon Martinez. Kip Wells gets a line drive to short from Guzman to Belliard at second, double play!!

Nick Johnson hits a trademark single off Bobby Parnell to start the seventh. Ryan Zimmerman K’s swinging over a bender in the dirt. Parnell out, Pedro Feliciano will come to face Adam Dunn. Dunn K’s staring a fastball all the way in on the outside edge...Kip Wells vs Angel Pagan to start the Mets’ seventh. Pagan beats out a dribble to short, Guzman’s throw is late. Wells walks Luis Castillo, and Wells is done. Jesus Colome on with two on, no outs. Balk. Runners advance to second and third. David Wright swings through a 96 mph two-strike fastball upstairs. Gary Sheffield gets the intentionals. Daniel Murphy goes the other way, two runs score, RBI double. 7-3 NY. Fernandeo Martinez flies out to short center to end the frame.

J.J. Putz starts the eighth against Willingham, issuing a leadoff walk. Ronnie Belliard erases the runner with a DP grounder back to the mound. Willie Harris lines out to short...”Wild” Joel Hanrahan takes over for Washington, Angel Pagan doubles to left center gap to start the inning. Jeremy Reed K’s swinging. Angel Pagan takes a one-out walk. Luis Castillo walks to load the bases for David Wright. Wright K’s. Wilson Valdez grounds out to end the eighth.

Wil Nieves grounds out to second. Anderson Hernandez lines out to Angel Pagan in center. Francisco Rodriguez gets a ground ball to first from Guzman...Daniel Murphy flubs it, Guzman’s safe. Nick “Two-Spot” Johnson...singles up the middle! Guzman scores!! Ryan Zimmerman takes a fastball down the pipe for a backwards K to end it. Mets win, 7-4 final.

Nationals now 13-33.