SB Nation - Takashi Saito

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Braves: Trades First, Then Free Agents

gondeee — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:49:04 -0000

The Braves probably realize that they may have jumped the gun when the signed two free agent relievers in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito last week, before their own free agents made up their mind about whether they wanted to accept salary arbitration. As most of us already know, Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration and threw the Braves plans for the off-season and the winter meetings into disarray.

Instead of GM Frank Wren only having to move one starting pitcher (likely Derek Lowe), he now needs to move a reliever as well. Soriano has asked to be traded and several teams are in the mix, including the Orioles and Angels, and if money were less of an object, the Astros. It's important for more than one team to be in the fray so that the Braves can drive up the price a bit and get a better return, and possibly a useful piece they can plug in to their roster for 2010.

The urgency to move Soriano has led to the Braves putting other free agent options for position players on the back burner, according to Mark Bowman. This is out of a necessity to clear salary space before committing any more money to players for next season.

While Wren continues to say that the Soriano Surprise will not deter the Braves from their off-season plans, it has certainly slowed those plans until the more immediate situation of trading their former closer concludes. With multiple sources saying we should be able to trade Soriano easily and quickly I certainly hope they are correct. One thing going for us here is that the Braves seldom demand more value in return in a trade than the player they're trading is really worth. This is not the Blue Jays trying to deal Roy Halladay. There is a need for Wren to get Soriano, and to an extent Lowe, traded as soon as possible, so that he can focus on the never ending pursuit of hitting.

[UPDATE: 3PM]

Ken Rosenthal says the Tampa Bay Rays and the Astros are the two teams trying to trade for Soriano. Earlier in the afternoon we learned that the Angels and Orioles were out of the running. The Astros may fall out of contention, as they instead may land Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Jose Valverde Rejects Arbitration Offer- Who Closes Now?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:32 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Adios, amigo.

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The Astros and GM Ed Wade were handed a great piece of news on Monday night, as closer Jose Valverde declined arbitration choosing instead to remain a free agent. Valverde made his intent to test the market in free agency known early on, and despite the extension of an arbitration offer from the Astros, Jose has decided to take the plunge and see if he can parlay his strong recent seasons into a big money free agent contract.

Almost certainly this means the end of his tenure as the last man out the Astros 'pen. While he was certainly a positive contributor, he is a luxury that the organization cannot afford. If nothing else, we can remember Jose Valverde's as a rock of consistent, if not spectacular play, a welcome relief from the often turbulent ninths we saw from Brad Lidge. People jump all over Ed Wade and his penchant for bringing in relievers, often over cost, and rightfully so especially with a team lacking in talent like our Astros have been. At least we can say in Valverde's case that the big name reliever was as good as advertised once he got to town.

Now the question that need be answered is who will step into the vacated closer's position? Rafael Soriano, whom the Astros had reported shown interest in, has accepted the Braves' offer of arbitration, while set up man Mike Gonzalez has chosen to take the opposite route in rejecting the Braves' advances. On the Braves' front, the back end of their bullpen will be full of former and current closers, with Soriano joining Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner after the latter two recently joined Atlanta in free agency. I don't know if Braves' GM Frank Wren anticipated that Soriano would decline arbitration, but he will have a large sum of $ invested in three men who will pitch at most 190 innings combined. That's an almost Astro-like utilization of resources. To the point, Gonzalez will be an option for Ed Wade to check in on. A multi year deal would most likely be what it takes to reign in the man with the awesome windup.

Of course, LaTroy Hawkins is an option, but he has been sought after by more than just the Astros. If anything, I would expect Ed Wade to amp up his charge to sign Hawk to a one year contract for 2010. If I had to place a wager, I believe he will be re-signed and given the opportunity to be our closer. Without great strikeout stuff, Hawkins will have to overcome his lack of a killer fastball to get hitters out. Our budget may necessitate this more than anything else.

Kevin Gregg, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are out there, and I hope the Astros do nothing more than kick their tires and pass. J.J. Putz, however, would be an interesting sign, and could probably be had on the cheap after coming off injury and poor performance.

The Astros were given a gift last night. Who knows what can be done with it. A free agent starting pitcher and/or an affordable third base option are more realistic than last week, in terms of ability of the Astros to sign a player or two. In the long term, Bobby Heck has produced a solid draft class from 2009, and if Valverde as expected does not re-sign with the club, two draft choices will come his way. All in all, a good night for the Astros. The next couple days could be even better as a result.

Braves' Soriano Accepts Arbitration

gondeee — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:55:40 -0000

The Atlanta Braves off-season just got a bit more interesting. Reliever Rafael Soriano has decided to accept arbitration and remain with the Braves for 2010, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Through arbitration, the Braves will likely end up paying Soriano anywhere from $6.5 to $8 million for next season. With $10 million plus already committed to Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, it is likely that the Braves will explore ways to trade Soriano -- something they would need his approval for from now until the middle of June.

With Soriano likely relegated to a setup role in the early innings, he and his agent may be inclined to ask for a trade. In fact this could have been the strategy all along -- to take the guaranteed money and let the Braves do the leg work in finding another team that needs his services.

Fitting his salary into the bullpen certainly seems outside of the budget of the Braves, so if they cannot trade him something else will have to give. This could affect who they tender contracts to next month, as someone like Kelly Johnson may no longer be affordable. They could also choose to trade both Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to free up salary space, attempting to land a cheaper starting pitching option in return for one.

Soriano also risks being cut in spring training and his salary not being guaranteed. There are some fancy baseball rules behind that (which I'm sure we'll learn in the coming days), but surely he and his agent gave that some thought.

Of course, if the Braves keep Soriano and are able to fit him into their payroll, then the Braves suddenly have the best bullpen in baseball -- a nice commodity for a manager who loves to use his bullpen.

The biggest impact here is how this move will affect the other moves the Braves may be planning. The next couple of days will be interesting, to see if Atlanta makes any trades to free up salary. The Braves other free agent who was offered arbitration, Mike Gonzalez, has apparently declined arbitration.

Red Sox Sign Fabio Castro

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:55:22 -0000

via www.cbc.ca

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It looks like the Sox are taking a depth approach to replacing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, as they signed yet another reliever in LHP Fabio Castro.

Castro, 24, has a 3.30 ERA over 43.2 innings with the Rangers and Phillies, last pitching in the majors in 2007. Last year, in AAA, Castro managed only a 4.49 ERA with mediocre peripherals. While Castro has made all but 1 major league appearance out of the bullpen, he's spent his last few years starting in the minors.

Castro is likely to join a large group of pitchers trying for a spot in the Sox bullpen in spring training, including Scott Atchison, Robert Manuel, and Dustin RIchardson.

Winter Meetings Day 1: Dodgers Shopping Pierre?

Eric Stephen — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:26:29 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

We already know Orlando Hudson won't be back in 2010. Might Juan Pierre also be on his way out?

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Today is the first day of the winter meetings in Indianapolis. Everyone who is anyone in baseball has descended upon Indianapolis for four days. This is the peak of the hot stove season, and there will be rumors galore for most of this week. There will be a lot of news that isn't really news, so remember to take everything with a grain of salt. That said, this is a pretty exciting and fun few days.

Today's highlights:

The Dodgers are shopping Juan Pierre, says Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Steve Henson of Yahoo says three or four teams are interested. Expect a pitcher with an inflated contract in return.
George Sherrill is rumored to be on the block, says Ken Rosenthal and John Paul Morosi of Fox Sports. If the Dodgers are operating on the margins of their budget, this makes sense, as Sherrill will likely make as much as $4 million in arbitration, quite a high salary for a non-closer
The veterans committee today elected manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey to the Hall of Fame today. Former players' union chief Marvin Miller was left out.
Today is the deadline for players to accept arbitration offers from last week. All zero of the Dodgers offered arbitration are expected to do nothing. Actually, an intriguing story is that reliever Rafael Soriano may accept arbitration from the Braves. If he does, Soriano would combine with Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito in the best back end of the bullpen in the majors (if not a fragile trio).

For a good overview of the winter meetings, read this Fan Post by BHSportsGuy, who saw first hand last year's meetings in Las Vegas.

Mark Timmons of LA Dodger Talk is in Indianapolis and at the winter meetings. Be sure to check his site for updates.

This is the first winter meetings of the Twitter era, so the information will be fast and furious. If you want to follow True Blue LA on Twitter, go to twitter.com/truebluela.

More Sources Say Soriano Likely to Accept Arbitration from Braves

gondeee — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 03:40:25 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

Atlanta Braves' closer Rafael Soriano's future is up in the air.

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I guess the Atlanta Braves should be flattered that Rafael Soriano wants to remain in a Braves uniform, but with the recent signings of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, the Braves seem to be saying they would rather Soriano not return. Atlanta has presumably spent all of its allocated budget on the bullpen, so Soriano's presence, if he were to accept arbitration, would likely not last long, as the Braves would be inclined to trade him rather than pay him.

SI.com's Jon Heyman is reporting that Soriano is leaning towards accepting arbitration. This flies in the face of what he reported earlier in the week, that Soriano would certainly reject arbitration. Since then we've had different reporters referencing different sources about what Soriano's decision will be. By the way, he has until midnight Monday night to decide.

All this begs the question, why would Soriano accept arbitration? Is it purely because he thinks he can make more money in one season? The most he would get by accepting arbitration is around $8 million, but in the free agent market he could likely get close to that per year for three to four years -- ensuring much more guaranteed money. Furthermore, Soriano must know that the Braves may not be able to afford to keep him and will trade him. With the ability to more closely control what team he ends up with through free agency, why would he give away that control by accepting arbitration and allowing the Braves to trade him wherever they please?

Accepting arbitration just doesn't make any sense. This is why I have a hard time believing some of this hype. It feels like a technique that his agent is using to stir up more interest in his client, or to get his client signed sooner rather than later, though I don't see him signing with another team tomorrow (but you never know).

Ken Rosenthal is supposed to have something on Soriano shortly, so we'll see if his info is any clearer about our reliever's course of action.

[UPDATE: 12/7 @ 11am]

Something I just learned about the Braves flexibility to trade Soriano were he to accept arbitration, under MLB rules Soriano could not be traded until June 1 without his permission. This certainly would complicate things, unless Soriano is simply looking for an arbitration pay day and doesn't care where he ends up. Mark Bowman and others have also mentioned that the Braves could release him in spring training because his contract is non-guaranteed, but that scenario makes my head hurt, as the Braves would have to to show just cause in doing so.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:58:22 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

The Atlanta Braves began the revamping of their bullpen for 2010 with the signing of veteran closer Billy Wagner.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 6th:

In the Press...

Without too much surprise, the Braves offered arbitration to both relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, while declining to offer arbitration to Adam LaRoche and Garrett Anderson.
Only a day after the arbitration decisions on both Soriano and Gonzalez, the Braves moved quickly to secure their closer for 2010 by signing Billy Wagner to a one-year contract with a vesting option.
Talking Chop was one of the first sources for Billy Wagner press conference notes and pics.
Before we could fully digest the Wagner signing, the Braves signed a setup man and capable closer in his own right, Takashi Saito to a one year contract.
Once again, Talking Chop was one of the first sources for Saito press conference notes and pics.
There was some hubbub earlier in the week about whether or not Soriano would accept or reject arbitration, with several national reporters having differing info. That impending decision on Soriano's part was apparently still up in the air late in the week.
Freddie Freeman ranked as the 7th-best prospect in the AFL.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll experienced some static, but remained unchanged.
Fan House did a good job of reviewing some Braves prospects.
I once again made the argument for Dale Murphy for Hall of Fame!
Talking Chop got some exclusive notes on a Sirius XM interview with Frank Wren.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

Sid Bream's Moustache passed along the news of Chip Cara parting ways with TBS.
The Keith Lockhart Era linked to a good Frank Wren interview.
PWHjort tried to get all technical on Derek Lowe's numbers. He came to a similar conclusion that I came to in my season review... that Lowe wasn't really that bad.
Zeus12888 shared with us his conclusions from a project he conducted in statistics class about the effects of sacrifice bunting. It's good stuff, and well put together... well worth a read.

Should be a fun week this week with the Winter Meetings getting under way in Indy.

Why The Rays 1-2 Bullpen Punch Might Be Good Enough Part-One; The Set-Up

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 11:00:22 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

An ugly ERA, should prevent Tampa Bay Rays' reliever, Grant Balfour from earning his true value in arbitration. For him this is bad, for the team and us, this is good.

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The Atlanta Braves have wasted no time in setting the market for relief pitching. The signing of Billy Wagner to a one-year deal worth seven million dollars should give teams a barometer for other available closers. I'm not saying Wagner has set the bar, but it's something to compare nonetheless. Atlanta also made their move in the setup man market with the signing of Takashi Saito. The Braves guaranteed him $3.2 million dollars to be Wagner's wingman. Both former Red Sox are a bit long in the tooth and have some injury questions, but are good pitchers; in Wagner's case great when 100%.

Meanwhile in Tampa Bay we are still waiting for relief of our own. After Frank Wren and John Coppolella dashed many dreams of Wagner in a Rays uniform, hopefully reality has set it for those who still remain optimistic that the Rays will land a big money closer. If Wagner received $7 million, expect Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano to make the same if not more. As we've said multiple times, the Rays will undoubtledly add a reliever (or 10), but it will be of the Kiko Calero variety. And really that's fine because the Rays already have their Wagner and Saito in house.

Like James Shields, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are slightly lower on the talent todem pole than some of their well known peers. Also like Shields, they are providing something that their peers aren't; great value. If the payroll allowed for it, I would have no problem with the Rays shelling out the money for top notch relief pitching, but since the funds aren't readily available, I prefer to have them allocated elsewhere like extensions of our younger talent.

Over the past two seasons, Saito and Balfour have posted similar numbers. In 2008, Saito posted a phenominal 2.00 FIP as the part-time closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers spearheaded by his dazzling 11.49 K/9 and his impressive 0.19 HR/9 over 47 innings. Not to be completely out done, as many of you remember Balfour spend most of his 2008 campaign telling opposing batters to STFD. Arguably a top three reliever in the American League, Balfour posted an FIP of 2.22 in 58.1 innings of ball in the highly competitive AL East. His 12.65 K/9 lead the league and his 0.46 HR/9 wasn't too shabby either.

In 2009, both relievers took a step back from their nearly unrepeatable 2008's. Even the step back, both were still above average firemen. Saito found like in the AL East a bit more difficult as his FIP doubled and then some. However, he still finished with a respectable 4.25 moving from Dodgers closer to Johnathan Papelbon's caddy in Boston. Despite pitching a few more innings than the previous season, Saito finished with less K's overall and saw his K/9 drop from 11.49 to 8.41. He also saw that miniscule 0.19 HR/9 rise to 0.97, but I'll chalk that up to regression of his HR/FB rate from 2.3 to 7.3 (career 5.7).

Like Saito, Balfour saw some struggles in 2009. However, it was not nearly as bad as his 4.81 ERA suggest or the numerous BALFOUR MUST GO comments we heard from fans. It's true, Balfour gets a little loose with the free pass often, but that's what he's expected to do. Balfour has lived up to his surname nearly five times per nine innings in his career and did so nearly 4.5 times last season. It's far from ideal, but when you strike out over a batter per inning, certain privileges are granted. With the added walks, Balfour saw a decrease in strikeouts of over three per nine innings. Despite the large drop off, Balfour still struckout a batter per nine and ended the season with a K/9 of 9.22. Like his counterpart, he experienced a slight regression in HR/FB rate, but the Aussie still managed to keep the ball in the part at a decent 0.80 clip. More walks, less strikeouts and more home runs are never a good thing, but nonetheless, Balfour's FIP was nearly a half run lower than Saito's despite carrying and ERA of 2.5 runs higher. A near 25% difference in LOB% will do that sometimes.

We know Saito will make a guaranteed $3.2 million dollars. There are also incentives based on games finished, but the Braves hope that a healthy Wagner will take care of that. There is another $500k in non game finishing incentives. That means there is a decent chance Saito could make ~$4 million dollars in 2010. Even at that price, he should still a value especially with the league change.

Balfour, on the other hand, made $1.4 million dollars in 2009 as an arbitration (2) eligible player. His eyesore ERA should keep him from getting true value in his third round of arbitration which I ballpark around $3.2 million dollars. More likely than not, Balfour will get a raise putting him over $2 million, but a bit shy of $3.2 million.

No, this will not satisfy the pitchforked crowd that view Balfour as an uncontrollable wild man, but this wasn't my intention. However, for the group of us that can look past the walks and the bloated ERA, I think this reinforces the fact that while we can all agree the need for help in the bullpen is needed, some of that help is already here.

A look at the left handed closer side of these duos next week.

Rafael Soriano Could Accept Arbitration from Braves

gondeee — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 05:12:47 -0000

When the Braves signed closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito earlier this week they had no inclination that either of their type-A free agent closers would accept their offer of arbitration, but it appears that Rafael Soriano is at least thinking about it:

But Soriano's agent Peter Greenberg told ESPN.com that his client is still thinking about the possibility of accepting the offer before Monday's 11:59 p.m. ET deadline.

"It's going to go down to the wire," Greenberg told the website. "It's definitely going to be a last-minute decision for us."[...]

"We know there's a lot of interest in Rafael, but we still don't have a sense yet whether [salary] arbitration or going on the free market is in his best interests," Greenberg told ESPN.com.

Soriano would probably make around $8 million in arbitration. If he accepts, I say fine. Yes, we would lose two draft picks, but it may enable us to pick up a more major league-ready piece by trading Soriano (or Saito, if we choose). A closer or setup man of his caliber would likely be worth a good bat in return, perhaps in some circles he may be easier to trade than Derek Lowe, and may net a similar return.

I don't see Soriano accepting arbitration as a bad thing, as I think it gives Atlanta more options. Of course it means they have to trade a couple of people, but Soriano, at least, is a very tradeable commodity. Odd are, though, Soriano does not accept arbitration and becomes a free agent.