SB Nation - Brad Thompson

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:25:35 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Braves would love to unload Derek Lowe's contract, but don't sound all that interested in taking on Corey Hart in exchange.

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Some things to read while moving Christmas dinner.

When something shows up in two separate sections of the site, it's usually best to assume it's true, so the fact that there are posts about it in Rumorville and the FanShots must mean there's some truth to the rumor that the Brewers and Braves have discussed a trade that would send Corey Hart to the Braves for Derek Lowe. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the Braves aren't interested in Hart, which makes two of us. Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! reiterated a trade idea they mentioned a while back: Hart for Kenshin Kawakami.

As of 12:01 this morning, the market is officially open for free agents to negotiate with other teams. Tom H. has an overview of the market, with the Brewers tied to the usual names: John Lackey, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn. Randy Wolf's name was also mentioned.

The Pinstriper has predictions for all of this offseason's Type A and B free agents, and thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis and re-sign Jason Kendall. Meanwhile, they have Mike Cameron, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez and David Weathers signing with the Padres, Astros, Dodgers and Pirates, respectively.

While the BBWAA has left the Brewers out in their voting for most of their major awards, one pitcher still collected an award from another source: Manny Parra won Joe Posnanski's NL Les Sweetland Award for being the NL's worst pitcher in 2009, while Jason Kendall narrowly missed winning the NL LVP.

At least in this scenario, Kendall wouldn't be back: Wisconsin Sports Tap thinks the Brewers should step into the future and give Jonathan Lucroy the catching job in 2010. I've covered why I think it's a bad idea.

Two Brewer staffers, manager in the Brewers' media relations department John Steinmiller and manager of marketing promotions Caitlin Moyer have started a blog to keep fans updated on what's going on at Miller Park during the offseason, and they have a post on some planned renovations in and around the park, as well as the renaming of some parking lots (h/t Adam McCalvy). Miller Park Drunk took a look at the new parking lot map and wonders how Paul Molitor ended up getting the faraway lot.

As noted in today's Fall/Winter League Update, Alcides Escobar had a pretty good night in Venezuela last night, going 4-for-4 with a solo home run. If you're looking for more about it and happen to speak Spanish, here's a game story from ElImpulso.com.

For many Brewer fans, it's been a long few decades of waiting for the Crew to put a winning team back on the field, but we've held strong. A Girl's View of the Brewers tells the story of her Brewer fanhood.

Around the league:

Cubs: Re-signed John Grabow to a one year deal worth $3.75 million.
D-Backs: Acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for a pair of minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed pitcher Brad Thompson to a minor league deal.

I know I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm going to mention Lookout Landing's Faces series again because today's installment features former Brewer first round pick Dave Krynzel.

The deadline has passed for players to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, so we can start looking at players who might be available. One such player is former Brewer farmhand Cole Gillespie, left unprotected by the D-Backs. Gillespie hit very well in AAA for the D-Backs after being acquired as part of the Felipe Lopez deal, and will probably get a shot to make a team as a fourth outfielder next spring.

We spend a lot of time discussing minutiae during the offseason and most of it doesn't amount to much in the end, but this is why we do it: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has a look at players who have gone from minor league free agent to big league contributor. It doesn't happen often, but it is possible to strike gold.

Miller Park Drunk is starting a season-by-season review of the decade that was for the Brewers, but you're forgiven if you're not too excited about reliving the 2000 season. It's about as exciting as Ryan Braun modeling more Remetee stuff.

Does a change up lose its effectiveness when a batter sees it multiple times? That's the question Max Marchi of The Hardball Times is taking on, by looking at batters who see multiple change ups, both in the same AB and over multiple ABs, and the pitchers who throw them.

On this day in 1969, the Seattle Pilots fired Joe Schultz, the first manager in franchise history, after just one season. Dave Bristol took over and managed the club for their first three seasons in Milwaukee.

Also, on this day in 1989, Robin Yount won his second American League MVP Award, this one as a center fielder. Yount received just eight of the 27 available first place votes but edged out Ruben Sierra by 28 points.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday again today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Rick Monday, who turns 64. Thanks in advance to FtJ, who will likely point out a birthday I missed in the comments.

And finally, a programming note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go deer hunting for a few days. I'll still be writing the Mug next week, but I'm moving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's Mugs to the afternoon so I can still hunt in the mornings. I'll be back with a regular Mug a week from today.

Drink up.

Joe Jackson talks briefly to a newsboy about yesterday's news

DanUpBaby — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:52:16 -0000

File photo—Kansas City Royals pitcher Brad Thompson, center, sells newspapers outside a nickel theater in St. Louis, July 14, 2009. The Indians won 3-1 in fifteen reels.

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It's the most famous young face in the history of baseball—it's the symbol of purity corrupted, of the sport's loss of innocence in the face of organized crime and a gambling scandal that nearly ended baseball as young boys everywhere knew it.

Outside the courthouse there's a nervous crowd milling around, waiting for news. Suddenly there's a burst of activity and "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, surrounded by well-wishers, ex-fans, photographers, reporters, and baseball players, pushes through the double doors and takes the steps with his easy grace. The crowd is shocked into silence—the reporters' questions are so much rhubarb—but one brave, stoic newsboy, carrying his accusing newspapers guiltily, steps into the baseball great's path and begs, his voice quivering with the weight of posterity on its back: "Say it ain't so, Joe! Say it ain't so!"

Having gotten his lede, the lucky reporter stalks back to the newsroom. But after his famous silence the fallen hero gives the newsboy a measured look and says, "Well, it depends on what you mean. Certainly I was mixed up with bad people who were doing bad things. But in the end either the facts or the sheer gravitas of my story will vindicate me, and that's all I can really ask for."

The baby-faced newsboy sniffles a little. No more than ten or eleven, by the looks of it, he's already an old hand at the business. "I—I'm glad to hear that, Joe, I really am, but that's not what I'm askin' about. Didn't you see the paper? Haven't you been paying attention? I got signed by the Royals!"

"Oh, Lord, kid," Joe says. "The Royals? That's a harsh break. But I'm afraid it's so."

"I know! I'm WonderBrad! I pitched 57 scoreless innings in a row in the minor leagues—and forget this rag," he says, "I was in the New York Times!"

"The first break-up is always tough. But I say you oughtta look at it this way: now that you're gone, the Cardinals fans you impressed all through that great season, and in your first few years as a reliever—well, that's how they're going to remember you! Not as the pitcher of last resort, or the guy who could only come in after a certain percentage of the TV audience had gone to bed."

"What's a TV?"

"The timeline is hazy, kid. Don't ask questions. It's like this—a role player's best moment is when he catches fire for those first few months and he can't do anything wrong. But his second-best moment is right now, after he's gone. From now on you're WonderBrad. Ten years from now they won't even remember that your fastball and your changeup eventually met in the middle."

The newsboy's face clears a little—a boyish glow takes hold. "I guess you're right, Joe." The matter settled, the crowd having grown bored and a little confused, the newsboy resumes plying his wares.

"Extra, extra—read all about it! Lincecum Cy Young of the National League!"

"Wait, kid, what'd you say? Lincecum?"

"It's so, Joe. Some people say it's a sea-change in how awards will be won. Other people are just really, really mad about it."

So here's what I still don't get. How can you look at what Wainwright did from a won-loss standpoint and essentially dismiss it in favor of Lincecum? As gifted a pitcher as Lincecum clearly is, he faltered down the stretch when his team was in the playoff hunt. In his last 10 starts, the San Francisco ace was only 3-4 with a 3.15 ERA. I'm sorry, but that has to mean something, doesn't it? If won-loss records are suddenly obsolete, why do we bother to keep the stat?

"Don't read any more unless you're gonna buy that."

"Okay, okay. There's something kind of haunting about that last line, isn't it? Like he's just a little worried somebody's going to say, 'You're right, why do we bother?' 'If switchboards are suddenly obsolete, why do we have all these people sitting in front of them?'"

"Give him his wins, Joe. They're a narrative, for goodness' sake. You should know something about that."

"Oh, wins and losses are great; nobody's ever going to occasion a parade when he breaks the 6 WAR barrier. And Wainwright and Carpenter both had great years. But it's a shame that this is the debate he's having, or trying to have, when there's a neighboring one that's a lot more important, especially considering a lot of these guys probably picked Lincecum because of his innings and his strikeouts, anyway: Does the Cy Young measure value, or does it measure what that value should have been?"

"This is why I never strike anybody out. I cut off philosophizing at the pass."

"Say we could eventually have a stat that measures the expected value of each swing, from a grounder to the second baseman to a ball that should be a home run. Is that a tool for MVP debates?"

"Is this about Keith Law's ballot?"

"Javier Vazquez had better peripheral stats than Wainwright. He should have been better. But all those runs Wainwright stranded were valuable, even if there's no reason to think he'll do that again. Vazquez is a perfect test case for this, too, since his ERA has always lagged his peripherals. But instead we're talking about wins like nobody's ever lost the Cy Young to a player with fewer wins before."

"This is a slippery slope, though. Do you give the MVP to the clutchest player, too?"

"Look, I don't know, Brad. I'm just a baseball player. I can't even read, to be totally honest—I just figured Bryan Burwell would be really mad and I made it up the best I could."

"You did good, Joe. We all have secrets," the newsboy says. "I'm actually 27 years old."

What the Cardinals can take from the Yankees, besides the luxury tax

DanUpBaby — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:06:53 -0000

First, some briefs on yesterday's roster moves:

It's interesting to see the Brad Thompson perception gap—the RotoWorld box in the sidebar thinks he'll have no problem finding a job, even as a fifth starter; the Baseball Primer thread is remarkably positive, for BTF. But I think the average VEBer wrote off the artist occasionally known as WonderBrad a long time ago.

I'll always think of him as a better pitcher than he probably was and is; I'm as susceptible as anybody else to overvaluing a player when he gets off to a good start, and there were moments there in 2005 (it seems like it's been longer) where his weird sinker seemed like the makings of a uniquely valuable short reliever. But I'm hard-pressed to think of any team that's strapped enough for choice to give him a clear shot as a fifth starter coming off a year with a K/9 of 3.8.

Jarrett Hoffpauir leaves the 40 man roster—and, though this wasn't the Cardinals' intent, the organization—a victim of circumstance; without the Julio Lugo deal he might come into 2010 as the Cardinals' best free choice for Skip Schumaker's equally awkward right-handed caddy, but Lugo has a name and at least theoretically plays short. It's tough luck for the Cardinals; finding purchase on a big league roster is hard for backup infielders who can't play shortstop, but Hoffpauir, with his occasionally impressive bat and his consistently impressive BB:K ratio, has one more definable skill than most of these guys. (Being a Cardinals farmhand is apparently also a path to gainful MLB employment for these guys—Edgar Gonzalez and the poor man's Jarrett Hoffpauir, Mike McCoy, both saw big league time this year.)

In 2010 he would have had Lugo on one side and Daniel Descalso, who somehow failed to receive regular playing time in his 2009 AAA stint, on the other, though, so maybe it's best he's gone to an organization without a veteran playing for free and a prospect at second. (Which makes it even weirder that Joe Thurston didn't get the Brad Thompson treatment—hopefully he'll spend his Memphis summer working on his footwork rounding second base, not standing next to it.)

With that out of the way, the big news: the Yankees have finally beaten the Curse of Clay Bellinger. It was a tough road, but I can only hope that they have enough footage of Jimmy Fallon running out onto the field to properly commemorate those long years in Fever Pitch 2. What did these Yankees do that the Cardinals can emulate, multi-billion dollar payroll aside?

1. Make the Free Agent deals count. The list of Yankees busts in the years between 2000 and 2009 is comical both quantitatively and qualitatitively—these guys signed Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, and Kei Igawa to deals totaling $106 million. The spending binge prior to 2009 will justifiably get a lot of attention as the difference-maker between this club and the ones that preceded it, but this time around Brian Cashman was at least forward-thinking enough to sign players who have established track records of performing in a way that resembles their enormous contracts.

This hasn't been true of the Cardinals' last three pitching free agents—Kyle Lohse was signed at the absolute peak of his value, for a dollar value that seems blissfully disconnected from the rest of his body of work. The Joel Pineiro and Mark Mulder contracts, each two years, $13 million, were both affordable risks, and one of them worked out better than the Cardinals could possibly have imagined, but they were an extremely speculative way to spend $26 million; there wasn't much in their recent history to suggest they were multi-million dollar pitchers, of a separate species from recent gambles like John Smoltz or even the first appearances of Lohse and Pineiro.

Matt Holliday is, for all his Boras-sized ambitions, a guy who will come into the first year of his contract almost certain to play up to it. He's durable, he's still within sight of his peak years, and he's a consistently excellent hitter with a broad base of skills. Which combines with makes Joe Strauss's recent, inexplicably phrased chat insinuations an interesting, if not instructive, topic of discussion:

Chairman Bill DeWitt recently denied that the club has made Holliday an offer; however, there are suggestions that the Cardinals discussed a 6-year, $96 million framework with Holliday's agent, Scott Boras.

I'll be honest: I have no idea what "suggestions" means when it is both unsourced and right after an official club denial but also accompanied by an extremely specific contract "framework." No idea whatsoever. But assuming that Joe Strauss is not the one suggesting this, or Joe Strauss's barber, this seems like a fine deal for a team that, as a recent fanshot noticed, is filled with a ton of decent players. $16 million could be parceled out to three or four basically average guys, hole-fillers, and probably earn more wins above that famous replacement player than Holliday himself. But this team doesn't need Reggie Sanders—it needs MV3.

An argument could be made that these big free agent contracts need to be seen as the reward for, and culmination of, years spent cultivating guys like Skip Schumaker and David Freese to negate the need for the Kyle Lohses. But at $96 million, instead of $180 million, I guess two out of three isn't so bad.

2. Develop an inconceivably long-lasting internal core. How are three of the Yankees' best players still holdovers from 1996? Asking the Cardinals to develop three to five borderline Hall of Famers over the course of the next three years is probably a little too much to ask, but it's nice to see the Cardinals progressing in this direction; Pujols and Wainwright were locked down early, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Colby Rasmus follow along the same path.

Losing Brett Wallace leaves them one future core player short, but I'm glad the Cardinals still have at least one in the system; winning 78 games in 2007 isn't far removed from having top prospects like Jimmy Journell and post-surgery Blake Hawksworth a few years earlier. Get here soon, Shelby Miller.

3. Look at all those young, successful relievers! The Cardinals made—and have continued to make—a good-faith effort at this with guys like Jason Motte and Chris Perez and Kyle McClellan. And since I am lost as you to the reasons for the enormous gap between Motte's PCL and MLB numbers, it's frustrating to see the Yankees' three fine young relievers, even if two of them had less than impressive postseasons.

Interesting, though, to see how the three came to be important parts in the Yankee pen—one should probably still be in the Yankee rotation, another was a minor league free agent and career starter.

Playoff Worrying In Particular

DanUpBaby — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:30:19 -0000

by Jeff Curry - AP

2 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus (8) leaps over Milwaukee Brewers' Alcides Escobar, as Escobar steals third during the 10th inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in St. Louis. The Brewers won 9-7 in 10 innings. (AP Photo/Jeff Curry)

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Anybody can, and does, worry about the playoffs in general. But worrying about particular parts of the playoffs, especially tangentially relevant ones? That's the blogger's job.

No playoff roster surprises yet—Khalil Greene in his second comeback was rendered basically irrelevant by Julio Lugo's arrival and Tony La Russa's reluctance to move past the put-him-in-good-situations point on the comeback trail. From the first of August to the end of the season he'd played fewer than forty innings in the field, which is fewer than Troy Glaus played as a September call-up. The current arrangement leaves the Cardinals without a real backup shortstop, but Greene probably wouldn't have helped matters there, either; his play-by-play numbers, as one would expect of a guy dealing with serious emotional problems, moving on and off the DL, playing sparingly, were... almost as bad as Julio Lugo's.

What it does do is leave the Cardinals—Cardinals fans, really, since there seems to be no real internal debate about it—with an odd positional controversy. How healthy is Troy Glaus?

I don't know if I had any logical reason to be as surprised as I have been, but Glaus's brief comeback has been as spotty as I expected but in a totally different way than I'd anticipated. Some combination of his long, unexpected layoff, his size and shape, and the shoulder problems that were apparently keeping him from throwing three months ago had me expecting a loping slugger, our homegrown version of the PH-only Jim Thome the Dodgers acquired from the White Sox. While his usage did sometimes shake out that way, the results—as with Thome, but not Jason Giambi—were not there.

But his defense, when he was made to play defense, was a revelation. I didn't realize it until Glaus got back—middle infielders have been at the hot corner all year—but when Mark DeRosa plays third base, he looks like a second baseman. He's nimble out there, but his reflexes, his first move in either direction, just aren't natural. Sometimes he just doesn't make them. Glaus is a big, slow, heavy guy, but he moves immediately and aggressively toward balls; that almost-play on a barehander Sunday was something I wouldn't expect DeRosa to make—but it was also, before I saw him play, something I didn't expect New, Sedentary Glaus to make.

Unfortunately, if we're extrapolating from subjective observation and small samples (his UZR/150 is 125.3!) there's also the matter of his slow bat and his 130 professional at-bats in 2009. During his long rehab Glaus struggled at three different levels, peaking in an encouraging-but-not-very .216/.369/.392 at AAA. In the bigs he didn't have much room to work through a slump, if it's a slump, but he certainly hasn't looked as capable offensively as he does defensively. (Not that Glaus has ever looked like a worldbeater.)

So now the Cardinals are in an awkward position, at least if they want to press the issue: Play Glaus for his defense, even though he might not be able to hit? I can't say I ever expected to say something like that.

II.

While we're on the topic—I don't expect this to prove either really important or, in the end, determined in such a way that antagonizes the Viva El Birdos contingent. But B.J. Rains of the mothership knows how to make us worry: suggest that Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer are both candidates for the playoff pen:

The decision to go with 12 pitchers means that two of the four among Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson will be on the playoff roster. Hawksworth and Boggs, both rookies, are the likely choices to make the cut based on their performances and the number of their appearances down the stretch in relation to Wellemeyer and Thompson.

He's right: Brad Thompson hasn't appeared in a leveraged decision since the end of July, and Wellemeyer—well, no. Not Wellemeyer. Hawksworth has shown up twice as often as either of them in the second half of the season, and Boggs's startling bullpen fastball—I haven't seen a bullpen transformation as complete and abrupt as his in some time, no matter where he ends up permanently—is certainly a higher upside play than WonderBrad.

But mentioning it at all, even as a theoretical possibility... it gives me the shakes.

III.

I've saved the most worrisome for last; so finally we've gotten to Joel Pineiro's tentative transformation back into Joel Pineiro. The strikeouts are fine; they're up, actually. The home run rate had to come up eventually, though I didn't expect him to give up 46% of his seasonal home run total in the last month of the year. But his command, the supernatural aversion to walks that characterized the first five months of the Joel Pineiro Comeback Spectacular—gone. Four strikeouts and less than one walk per nine is Christy Mathewson; Four and a half strikeouts and two walks is last season's version of Braden Looper.

That guy is a useful pitcher, even in the playoffs, but for now that's what I'll be expecting, so that when Joel Pineiro turns in a shutout and the Cardinals advance to the NLCS I will be pleasantly surprised.

16-3 would even be a good save percentage

DanUpBaby — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:00:25 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

3 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Chris Carpenter throws during the third inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Monday, Sept. 7, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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It's hard to imagine this team without what it's gotten from Chris Carpenter to this point. Are they good enough to justify DeRosa? Holliday? Fangraphs, impersonal though it is, has pegged Carp for 4.6 wins above replacement, a $21 million dent into the contract that began 2009 with the Cardinals $19 million in the hole.

As late as that April 14 injury I was convinced that any value he added to the 2009 Cardinals was a welcome bonus. That's how I wrote him up in the preseason book, and though his first start had gotten me more excited than I wanted to be that squib game was all it took for me to lose the newfound confidence. I know it wasn't supposed to be serious—I know it wasn't the result of throwing a pitch—but between the Cardinals' reputation and Carpenter's was there anyone out there who wasn't a little suspicious that he'd be back?

But since then... well, since then he's thrown 21 starts unabbreviated by injury; 19 of them have been quality starts. 15 of them have gone at least seven innings, nine of them have involved no more than one earned run, and now four of them have brought together 32 scoreless innings, 36 strikeouts, four walks, 13 hits. He's really good. He's really, really, really good. He's not the bonus innings, he's the innings, qualified, as of yesterday's start, for the year-end ERA title. Without him this team is probably a lot warier about going for broke on a left fielder, especially when it involves trading their fifth starter.

Day off #1: Accomplished. La Russa frames Franklin's day(s) off like this:

"This series is going to be one where our starters hopefully will pitch effectively and get into the last part of the game, [but] we can't push them ridiculously," La Russa said. "Our offense will have to score some runs. And there will be some guys like [Brad] Thompson, [Todd] Wellemeyer, [Mitchell] Boggs, whoever, some of the other guys who are not the normal guys will have to get some outs."

Of those guys I expect to see the most of Brad Thompson, who's been basically invisible since his stint in the starting rotation back in the 2009 Cardinals Malaise Era. Here's another gimmick stat—in WonderBrad's eight games as a regular short reliever, throwing one inning, he hasn't walked a batter. This is a career-long thing, and shouldn't come as a particular shock; when you put a guy like Thompson, who has trouble missing bats (4.7 K/9) in the bullpen, into the rotation, where he has to face the same guy more than once with his one-and-a-half pitchers—his fastball/slider/changeup all seem to move like the same pitch thrown at different speeds, and if it were a particularly impressive one that would be a great trick—he's going to become super-hittable (3.6 K/9, another .25 home runs per nine.)

I'm not saying Thompson is the answer to any question except "Who could be suspended for five games without anybody ever noticing?". But his career spent at the replacement level might be an unfair representation of his value.

(I can't finish this blurb without divulging my own self-interest, here; Brad was the first in a long line of spotlighted non-prospects, and as a long reliever he has become so anonymous that I'll always have my first impression of him as a useful middle reliever with a remarkably loopy "sinking" fastball.)

ITEM: I BLAME THE DERBY

Albert Pujols, pre-ASB: .332/.456/.723

Albert Pujols, post-ASB: .320/.433/.611

Joe Mauer, pre-ASB: .373/.447/.622

Joe Mauer, post-ASB: .356/.415/.580

Miscellaneous Sunday Ramblings

chuckb — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:14:42 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

When you hit a ball that far, it doesn't really matter how well you run the bases provided you touch all 4. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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I have to admit to being a little bit stumped this morning. What’s there to say? We’re playing great baseball, though it helps that we’re playing bad teams. Tied for the best record in the NL. Biggest lead in baseball. We run out our 2nd string against the Pirates and still manage to win the game. Pineiro goes today and he’s been a little shaky his last few starts. I mean, relatively shaky. When you go most of the season w/ an ERA under 3 then the last 5-6 starts haven’t been that great. If we’re comparing him to the Pineiro of old, he looks great. Since the beginning of August, he has a 4.35 ERA and has given up 4 homers in 41.1 IP. That doesn’t sound like a lot of homers but consider that he had given up just 3 homers in the first 4 months of the season, 4 in 1 month and 1 start is a lot. His ground ball % over the last 6 starts is just 58%. Again, that’s very high but lower than his % for the entire season. The bottom line is that he’s been getting more pitches up over the last 6 starts and been getting hit harder as a result.

Baseball Prospectus has this stat that they call secret sauce. It’s their supposed measurement of ability to succeed in the postseason. I think, by now, we all recognize that the postseason is basically a crapshoot. The people at BP have looked at all sorts of statistics to find their relationship to postseason success -- # of veterans, success down the stretch, # of homers hit, etc. They found that only 3 stats had a statistically significant relationship to postseason success – fielding runs above average (defensive ability), K/9 by the pitching staff, and WXRL (how good your closer is). Right now, according to big league teams, the Cards are 12th in the secret sauce report and 4th among possible NL playoff teams. We’re behind the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies but way ahead of the Phillies. Brad Lidge is really weighing them down.

The problem I have w/ their numbers for the secret sauce report is that they use numbers for the entire pitching staff (K/9) over the entire season rather than trying to weigh them according to projected postseason usage. Brad Thompson doesn’t strike out anyone but if he’s pitching in postseason games we’re not going to win many games, and it isn’t b/c he doesn’t strike anyone out. They should try and weigh the numbers according to the fact that Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Ryan Franklin will be pitching an inordinately high % of the innings. None of them are huge strike out pitchers but they still strike out more than Thompson and Kyle Lohse. In 2006, we were very low in the secret sauce report primarily b/c we were getting killed by WXRL. Izzy was horrendous that season but wasn’t even on the postseason roster. There was no accounting for the fact that Wainwright would be closing games. Would it have made a big difference in the report? Maybe not but my main argument is that they use what has been rather than what will be and that affects the validity of the report. Take it w/ a grain of salt.

I was curious about how tough our competition has been so far this season so I decided to look at the OPSes of NL starters’ opponents. It turns out that Wainwright has faced much tougher competition than either Carpenter or Pineiro so far this season. Out of 53 NL starters who’ve pitched 120 innings, Wainwright’s faced the 18th highest opponent OPS -- .731. That’s 11 points and 23 spots higher than Tim Lincecum, btw. Pineiro is 38th (.722) and Carp is 45th (.718) out of 53 in terms of the toughness of their competition. Jason Marquis, btw, is 50th so some of his good season can be attributed to the fact that he’s faced relatively weak competition.

As far as our hitters go, out of 124 NL hitters w/ 300+ PAs, Skip Schumaker has faced the 5th easiest pitchers, Colby Rasmus the 11th, and Albert Pujols the 14th, as measured by SLG against. Chris Duncan was 17th, Brendan Ryan the 48th, Ankiel the 52nd, and Yadi the 54th easiest pitchers. Somehow Ryan Ludwick has gotten screwed. He’s had to face the 78th easiest pitchers – much tougher competition than most of the lineup. We’ve faced some pretty light competition this season, a fact that shouldn’t be all that surprising considering there’s just 1 other team in our division above .500, and they’re barely above .500.

Finally, when Rasmus was picked off 1st base last night I got the idea to compare our baserunning this season (something BP measures relatively well, most agree) to previous seasons. There’s been a lot made of Joe Thurston’s baserunning escapades, for example. Right now we sit 12th baseball in overall baserunning. Our baserunning has added about 0.208 runs to our total so far this season. Oakland’s been the best in baseball, according to the report, adding more than 11 runs – and 1.1 wins – to their total by being good at running the bases this season. The worst has been the Orioles who have cost themselves more than 19 runs, and nearly 2 wins, on the bases. So our baserunning’s basically had a neutral effect on our win total this season.

Here are our totals since 2004.

	EQBRR
2009	0.209
2008	-6.441
2007	-11.478
2006	-7.020
2005	7.608
2004	7.632

We were first in baseball in ’04 and 3rd in ’05 and this year’s the only season we’ve had a positive number since ’05. It’s also probably our 3rd best team (behind ’04 and ’05) over that time period. Interesting. Gotta get a game thread up soon. Early game. Late riser. Not a great combination!

And for my next trick...

chuckb — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

You're not going to find your head w/ a half-hearted effort like that, Todd!(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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It’s miscellaneous numbers day here at VEB and I intend to start w/ the dominance of our pitching staff. One of the truest measures of a pitcher’s dominance is his ability to induce swinging strikes. If a pitcher can get a hitter to swing and miss, he’s got good stuff. Which pitcher has the highest percentage of swinging strikes on our staff? The answer is Dennys Reyes, coming in at a robust (you didn’t think I could mention his name w/o some sort of pun, did you?) 19%. (He’s actually tied w/ Mitch Boggs.) Here are the numbers in full:

	# of strikes	% looking	% swinging
Reyes	223	29	19
Boggs	231	26	19
Miller	241	29	17
Wainwright	1419	31	15
Carp	895	28	15
Motte	392	27	15
Franklin	368	32	14
Wellemeyer	1096	26	13
Lohse	751	32	12
McClellan	415	28	12
Pineiro	1164	29	9

It’s something that Pineiro, w/ his success this year, is at the bottom of this list but you should also notice that only Wainwright’s thrown more strikes this year and, in fact, he’s averaging only 3.43 P/PA – lowest on the team outside of Brad Thompson. To me, Boggs’ appearance at the top of this list is notable in light of Wellemeyer’s struggles this year. To me, despite the fact that he’s thrown just 400 pitches so far this year, his 19% swing and miss rate is an indicator that he can get big league hitters out. I’m not Tony, of course, but I’d trust him more than Wellemeyer every 5 days. (I’m posting this Sunday night as I’m heading to St. Louis to watch the series against the Dodgers so hopefully by Thursday, Boggs will have replaced Wellemeyer in the rotation.)

Next, we all know that "there is no such thing as ‘personal catchers’ w/ Tony so you can dismiss this next bit of information as completely irrelevant.

Pitchers’ ERAs by catcher in 2009:

	era
Yadi	3.71
LaRue	4.44

Yadi’s clearly the better catcher, right? Pitchers perform better w/ Yadi behind the plate, correct? Now try this one on for size:

Games started by pitcher w/ Jason LaRue behind the plate:

	# of starts
Wellemeyer	8
Thompson	2
Lohse	2
Pineiro	1
Boggs	1

Maybe we can’t tell much from catchers’ ERAs after all.

Finally, one of the unheralded elements of baseball is a player’s ability to run the bases. Generally speaking, faster players are better base runners than slower runners, ceteris paribus, b/c their speed allows them to take the extra base more often. They also steal more bases than slower base runners, by and large. So let’s take a look at some of the Cards’ base running stats for the season so far.

First of all, BP – which most agree does base running stats as well or better than anyone – has the Cards as the majors’ 9th best base running team so far this season and 5th in the NL. They have us as adding 2.56 runs as a team just by being able to take the extra base and steal bases well. Now, it’s important to understand that that’s only a quarter of 1 win but it translates to about 4 runs over a full season. So while base running matters, the difference between the majors’ best base running team and the worst is about 3 – 3.5 wins over a full season. Last year the difference was 33 runs – about 3 1/3 wins.

As far as our best and worst base runners go, it should come as no surprise that Yadi and Joe Thurston are at the bottom – Yadi b/c he’s slower than D.C. rush hour traffic and Thurston b/c it seems like every time he reaches base he’s pulling a Suppan-in-the-’04-Series base running snafu. At the top of the list is that guy who still has a lot to learn about playing this darn game. EQBRR is Equivalent Base Running Runs which is equal, essentially, by players advancing on hits, ground outs, fly balls, as well as stolen bases. Lugo’s, DeRosa’s, and Holliday’s numbers include their numbers from their previous teams.

	EQBRR
Rasmus	2.38
Ludwick	1.56
Schumaker	1.47
Ryan	1.00
Lugo	0.00
Ankiel	-0.09
Pujols	-0.58
DeRosa	-0.68
Holliday	-0.74
Thurston	-1.07
Yadi	-2.84

Rasmus’s numbers place him 25th in the majors while Yadi’s place him (gulp!) 687th. Many of you are saying, "Bullshit! Albert’s one of the best base runners in baseball. Proof is in the fact that he leads the team in steals!" My response to that is that Albert does the best he can w/ what he’s got but he’s just not very fast. He does run the bases extremely well but he also has physical limitations that don’t allow him to take as many extra bases as many other players take. Albert is actually least effective in taking the extra base on hits and on what BP calls "Equivalent Other Advancement Runs" which, I suppose, means advancing on wild pitches, passed balls, taking the extra base on overthrows or going to third on bad pickoffs at 1st…stuff like that. Again, as you see, the difference between the team’s best and the team’s worst nearly 2/3 of the way through the season is about half a win but, as close as this division is and will likely be the rest of the way, every half a win counts.

All-Star Lilly Dominates Cardinals; Cubs Win 5-2 (Still Worried About Marmol, Though)

Al — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 00:29:55 -0000

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Games like this absolutely infuriate me.

Infuriate? How can a crisply-pitched game with timely hitting, 5-2 Cubs win over the Cardinals, be infuriating?

Because I keep wondering why the team that showed up today can't show up every day! What is it about the 2009 Cubs that makes them play like this -- like the 2008 version -- one day, and another (yesterday, for example) look like they couldn't beat a team of T-ballers?

If anyone has the answer to that, call Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella right away. They, like the rest of us, would like to know.

Ted Lilly went eight innings for the first time since May 2 vs. the Marlins, when he also allowed just one run, and was in command all the way, posting his 100th career victory. He could have had eight shutout innings if Jeff Baker hadn't triple-clutched on a ground ball that the speedy Colby Rasmus beat out for an infield hit; later in that inning a bouncer by Ryan Ludwick glanced off Aramis Ramirez's glove for a RBI double, and that's all the Cardinals got till the ninth inning. More on that ninth inning later.

In the meantime, the Cubs came out swinging in the first inning against Brad Thompson, though the only really big hit was Baker's two-RBI single with the bases loaded, after Milton Bradley had taken one for the team and was hit by a pitch, forcing in the first run of the game. Nice work, Milton, and nice work again in the fourth inning; Bradley reached on a dropped third strike when it seemed as if no one really knew what was going on or where the ball was. That inning didn't produce any runs, but Lilly also had a nice idea when he tried to push a bunt past Thompson with Bradley on third. Lilly, realizing his hitting limitations, tried to surprise the Cardinals and almost got away with it. (Dave reminded me that such a play works much better with a lefthander on the mound.)

Lilly continued dominating; after the one run scored he gave up only two harmless singles and got out of the seventh with a slick double play that kept his pitch count low enough for him to throw the eighth (otherwise Angel Guzman or Sean Marshall probably would have thrown that inning). I especially liked the way Lilly ran out of the dugout for that eighth inning, something you likely didn't see on TV -- hustling, even though he was nearly gassed.

Then Lou decided to, again, give Carlos Marmol some work in a low-pressure situation, four runs up in the ninth inning. It was... not pretty. After an easy groundout, a single and walk put two runners on and then Marmol got a comebacker... which he almost threw into center field; it took a great stab by Ryan Theriot to prevent that, and Tony LaRussa came out to argue the out call at second base (he might have had a point; Theriot might have been off the bag). When Yadier Molina singled in a run, Lou was forced to summon Kevin Gregg to finish it off, which he did.

What's wrong with Marmol? Mike thinks his velocity might be down, which means he can't use the fastball as an out pitch and he either doesn't have command of, or doesn't trust, his slider, which was the pitch that got so many hitters out last year. It's getting beyond the point of "a couple of outings" for Marmol -- since June 2 he has thrown 18 innings and issued 20 walks. That's... well, it's bad. His season WHIP is 1.51 which is... well, it's bad. Maybe the All-Star break will help him get his head on straight.

The All-Star break also beckons Derrek Lee, who suffered a relapse of the neck spasms which put him out of action for almost a week in early May. D-Lee says he's good to go tomorrow, but I wouldn't take any chances with that unless he shows up tomorrow morning and says he's 100%. And although Koyie Hill said he could catch both games tomorrow, Jake Fox says he's ready to step in and catch if needed. If he is needed, expect him to catch the second game, where Randy Wells will start -- Fox caught Wells as they were both coming up through the system and making the same stops for the first few years of their careers.

Note I said "second game" -- Lou has, according to that link, decided to switch starters tomorrow and go with Z in the first game and Wells in the night game. That's fine with me. The Cubs can make a statement tomorrow. It's way past time to do so.

Fox-TV, Fuld And BJ Ryan News: Cubs vs. Cardinals Preview, Saturday 7/11, 3:10 CT

Al — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Where will the magic Fox-TV wizard send you today?

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The Great Fox Blackout Wizard hath decreed that this day, Saturday, July 11, 2009, shall have two major league baseball games televised across the land of the United States of America.

And further decreed is that one game shall be the New York Yankees vs. the Los Angeles Angels, and thus denizens of the coastal areas of the land shall see that game. The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs shall be visible only to those in the provinces, thusly:

Alexandria, LA; Austin, TX; Baton Rouge, LA; Biloxi, MS; Bowling Green, KY; Cedar Rapids, IA; Champaign, IL; Chattanooga, TN; Chicago, IL; Cincinnati, OH; Colorado Springs, CO; Columbia, MO; Columbus, MS; Columbus, OH; Davenport, IA; Dayton, OH; Des Moines, IA; Evansville, IN; Fort Smith, AR; Fort Wayne, IN; Grand Junction, CO; Grand Rapids, MI; Green Bay, WI; Greenwood, MS; Harlingen, TX; Houston, TX; Huntsville, AL; Indianapolis, IN; Jackson, MS; Jackson, TN; Joplin, MO; Kansas City, MO; Knoxville, TN; La Crosse, WI; Lafayette, LA; Lake Charles, LA; Lansing, MI; Lexington, KY; Lima, OH; Lincoln, NE; Little Rock, AR; Louisville, KY; Madison, WI; Memphis, TN; Meridian, MS; Milwaukee, WI; Minneapolis, MN; Monroe, LA; Nashville, TN; North Platte, NE; Oklahoma City, OK; Omaha, NE; Ottumwa, IA; Paducah. KY; Peoria, IL; Phoenix, AZ; Quincy, IL; Rochester, MN; Rockford, IL; Sioux City, IA; Sioux Falls, SD; South Bend, IN; Springfield, IL; Springfield, MO; St. Louis, MO; Terre Haute, IN; Topeka, KS; Traverse City, MI; Tucson, AZ; Tulsa, OK; Wausau, WI; Wichita, KS

As usual, the divvying up of TV markets for these games appears to have been done by monkeys throwing darts. Cities that usually get an American League game when there's one game from each league, such as Kansas City and Minneapolis, are getting the Cubs today -- but not Dallas. Houston gets the Cubs, but not San Antonio; Phoenix and Tucson get the Cubs, but not Yuma. It looks like you'll see the Cubs if you're in Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, and portions of Minnesota, Michigan, Texas, Arizona, Ohio, South Dakota and Colorado. Otherwise you're out of luck. Bizarre.

If you missed the FanShot posted by SydKyd last night, this news was buried in the recap of the Iowa Cubs' 11-5 win over Oklahoma City last night:

[Sam] Fuld was taken out of the game because he was called up by Chicago to take the roster spot of the injured Geovany Soto.

I hope he starts all three games in left field the rest of the weekend.

Also, Dave van Dyck reports in the Tribune that the Cubs have "great interest" in B.J. Ryan...

But they can't negotiate with him until Monday, once he clears waivers.

This is one signing I hope is done before the season resumes next Thursday.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Brad Thompson Cardinals

8-6	W-L	2-5
3.32	ERA	4.92
97	SO	19
23	BB	14
17	HR	7
vs. StL	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	8-6	17	17	0	0	0	0	111.0	104	44	41	17	23	97	3.32	1.14

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brad Thompson	2-5	16	7	0	0	0	0	53.0	58	31	29	7	14	19	4.92	1.36

Brad Thompson was supposed to start yesterday. Then he wasn't. Then he was again. By the time yesterday's preview thread had posted, the Cardinals had chosen Chris Carpenter to throw, but I had already written this about Thompson. Thus, you get to read the Thompson preview again, since he is now (apparently) definitely starting this afternoon. He has had a couple of decent starts this year and several mediocre ones. The only current Cub to have more than a handful of AB vs. Thompson with any success is Derrek Lee (3-for-6, 2 HR). Aramis Ramirez is 0-for-6 against Thompson; maybe this would be a good day for him to sit.

Ted Lilly is 5-1, 1.96 in eight starts at Wrigley Field this year. He's faced the Cardinals once this year, on May 19 in St. Louis, threw pretty well (3 ER in 7 IP) but the Cubs got shut out. I'm not going to bother posting Ted's splits vs. Albert Pujols, because it is my opinion that they should put Pujols on every single time he comes up this weekend -- well, except maybe if the bases are loaded. On the other hand, Pujols has had 9 PA with the bases loaded so far this year. He is 6-for-8 in those 9 PA with 4 HR and 20 RBI (the non-AB was a sac fly). Maybe walking him with the bases loaded minimizes the damage. All told, though, members of the current Cardinals roster are hitting .197 (37-for-188) against Ted.

See the list above the fold for the markets carrying today's game on Fox. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

I was remiss yesterday in not giving a plug to our friends at the SBN Cardinals site Viva El Birdos. There are several posters there who visit BCB regularly and we always welcome them. Feel free to go over there, too -- just be nice and talk baseball.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 4:15 pm, 5:15 pm and 6 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

The Next "Big Series" Of July: Cubs vs. Cardinals Preview, Friday 7/10, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:00:13 -0000

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Odd coincidence or serendipity?: Mark DeRosa won't be playing this weekend as he's on the DL, while one of the three pitchers acquired from Cleveland in the DeRosa trade last December will make his major league debut sometime over the weekend (presumably) after being recalled this morning to replace Kevin Hart on the roster. Hart is headed to Iowa to get some work before he himself is recalled after the All-Star break to make another start or two before Ryan Dempster returns from the DL himself.

Got all that straight? Good, because the Cubs have some ground to make up this weekend. Starting the weekend 3.5 games behind the first-place Cardinals, it would take a sweep to overtake them. That's unlikely, but winning three of four would put the Cubs 1.5 games behind going into the break, over .500 at 44-42, and in pretty good shape for the second half.

In the meantime, Bruce Miles tells us that the Cubs may indeed have interest in B.J. Ryan:

The 33-year-old Ryan will have to clear waivers, and once that happens, the Cubs likely will explore the possibility of signing him.

Insiders say any team that ends up with the former closer probably will want him to start out at Triple-A. The Blue Jays are on the hook for the approximately $15 million Ryan is owed through next season. The Cubs, or any team that picks up Ryan, will have to pay him only a prorated share of the major-league minimum salary this year and the minimum for 2010.

The idea of sending him to Iowa first ought to calm the fears of those who think he'd just blow games left and right for the Cubs. Try him out in Triple-A first. Sounds good to me. Get it done, Jim. Meanwhile, Jeff Stevens will be recalled today to fill the roster slot vacated by Hart.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Rich Harden Cubs	vs.	Brad Thompson Cardinals

5-5	W-L	2-5
5.35	ERA	4.92
77	SO	19
32	BB	14
15	HR	7
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	5-5	14	13	0	0	0	0	69.0	71	45	41	15	32	77	5.35	1.49

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brad Thompson	2-5	16	7	0	0	0	0	53.0	58	31	29	7	14	19	4.92	1.36

Brad Thompson shuttles back and forth between starting and relieving, though he has never started against the Cubs. He has had a couple of decent starts this year and several mediocre ones. The only current Cub to have more than a handful of AB vs. Thompson with any success is Derrek Lee (3-for-6, 2 HR). Aramis Ramirez is 0-for-6 against Thompson; maybe this would be a good day for him to sit.

Rich Harden is 2-1, 3.44 in three career starts vs. St. Louis. On April 26 in St. Louis, he struck out nine in six innings and the Cubs won 10-3. He's even handled Albert Pujols well -- 1-for-6 (a double).

Today's game is nationally available on WGN and on EI and in the St. Louis area via FSN Midwest. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Overflow comment threads will post today at 2:15 pm, 3:15 pm and 4 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.