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MLB Trade Rumors: John Smoltz to Close??

raygu — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:15:11 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - ASSOCIATED PRESS

2 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals starter John Smoltz (30) in action against the Cincinnati Reds in a baseball game, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi over at Foxsports.com wrote that there are 7 teams interested in signing John Smoltz this offseason, with some interested in him closing. Here is what they wrote:

The Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and Mariners are among the teams that have expressed preliminary interest in free-agent right-hander John Smoltz, according to a major-league source.
Smoltz, 42, is open to starting or relieving, and some teams have inquired about him as a closer, the source said. The Astros, Rangers and Orioles also have shown interest in the 22-year veteran.

Looking at that list, I could see the Cardinals, Astros, Rangers and Orioles looking at him to close. The Cardinals may feel that newly re-signed closer Ryan Franklin's late season blowup is a real cause for concern and try to sign Smoltz to close.

The Astros may look to him to close as their two closers from 2009 Jose Valverde and Latroy Hawkins are both free agents and may cost too much for them to re-sign.

Smoltz may want to stay in the National League after his woeful performance in Boston last year where he was 2-5 with an 8.32 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 8 starts. With St. Louis, Smoltz was 1-3 in 7 starts with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. It's pretty obvious he's a better pitcher in the National League, and at his age, one has to question whether he can start every five days.

Smoltz's peripheral stats in 2009 were solid. He had a 4.06 K/BB ratio, striking out 8.4/9 and walking 2.1/9. His HR/P were up but most of the damage occurred while he was in Boston where his HR/9 was 1.8/9, while in St. Louis it dropped to 0.7/9. In Boston, batters went .341/.384/.584/.968 against him, while in St. Louis batters went .248/.287/.379/.666 against him.

Smoltz is smart enough to know he is a more effective pitcher in the National League. And he can still close, and will come cheaper than a Jose Valverde or Billy Wagner.

Poll

Will John Smoltz be a starter or closer in 2010?

starter

45 votes

closer

118 votes

163 votes | Poll has closed

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

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We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

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I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

Signing Most-Valuable Players

DanUpBaby — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

You shoulda come to the first party—we didn't get home 'til around four in the morning. I was blind for three days...

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There's no new news, which means it's time we go over some old news: the decision to sign Ryan Franklin to a multi-year extension stipulating that he was not allowed to record another out in 2009. That particular clause was the main problem with the Franklin deal in particular, but since we didn't know about that at the time I think it's the principle of the thing that's wedged so tightly inside the Cardinals fanbase's collective craw. This team's management does so many things correctly; it's identified free talent like Ryan Ludwick, it's signed Adam Wainwright to a long-term deal at actual wainwright rates, and its drafts have improved tremendously since the seeds of what's become the new regime were first planted.

But Ryan Franklin was the second time in as many years that the Cardinals broke, to their own detriment, what was originally a Branch Rickey tenet and has since become a Sabermetrics 101 truism: Don't sign a player at the top of his value! This shouldn't be a difficult thing to grasp because it's so categorically true as to be basically meaningless; if you sign a guy at the very peak of his value, things can only go downhill from there.

I've thought about these contracts assuming, above all else, that John Mozeliak is a rational, above-average general manager; most of them are at this point, so it might be worthwhile to consider who else has made these two moves in recent years, and where it's left them.

THE LOHSE DEAL: Three long-term contracts obviously weirder than Kyle Lohse's

3. Juan Pierre. Five years, $44 million, 11/2006. What a terrible year for contracts this was—at the same time all of this was happening the Cardinals were getting ready to tear up Chris Carpenter's last two years, worth $15 million, so that they could hand him three more at an annual value of $15 million. Pierre is probably the nearest analogue to Kyle Lohse of the three I've got here; he's an intermittently useful regular who is being passed off, as salaries go, as the second banana on a pretty good team, not the guy who goes to the bench when somebody better shows up.

But more importantly, when the Dodgers pounced on Juan Pierre here—before the winter meetings, even—they seemed to be bidding against themselves. Pierre had just been traded from the Marlins for what at the time was a platter of second tier pitching prospects, and his year in Chicago hadn't exactly brought him back to the front of the national conscience. Who else was ready to offer Juan Pierre $44 million? Or Kyle Lohse $41?

2. Gary Matthews, Jr. Five years, $50 million, 11/2006. Stop me if you've heard this one before, maybe three times before: a player who has been useful in his own way for some time has a brilliant season that gets a lot of attention, not all of it for his tangible value. In the offseason he's signed to a contract that seems out of touch both with his apparent market value and the likely bounds of his performance, but the team in question is convinced that, despite being in his thirties, this player has found a new level of performance. He has not.

What makes the Sarge Jr. contract crazier than the Kyle Lohse deal, besides the additional year, is that the real Gary Matthews Jr. was a fourth outfielder with an inconsistent bat and a flashy glove. Since the Angels signed him, that's exactly what he's been. When it comes to inexplicable career year contracts, we're all Gary Matthews, Jr., Jr. Except for this man:

1. Vernon Wells. 114 years, $573 billion, 12/2006. Recently we were talking about how great it is to be able to lock up your own homegrown talent—how that's one of the keys to the Yankees' success, and, in the Blue Jays' case, one of the keys to competing with the Yankees. After looking at the Vernon Wells contract to this point, one might be tempted to never, ever sign another homegrown player again.

Vernon Wells was a trap; that's all there is to it. He looks like a homegrown franchise player; he plays center field, and in his second full season in the league he had an enormous season, hitting .317/.359/.550 and doing everything well. In his ill-fated contract year, he nearly reprised that season, hitting .303/.357/.542. But between those lines, and even between the lines' lines, there are more warning signals than you'll find on a pack of Canadian cigarettes. Between 2003 and 2006 are two extremely average lines; even in 2003 and 2006 there's a walk rate that keeps him from being an elite hitter. The Blue Jays were signing a player that they'd gotten for two non-contiguous years out of four to a deal that might even have been rich for that hypothetical guy.

They couldn't have known that his offense and defense would both take a complete nosedive by 2009, making him one of the worst players in baseball just in time for his contract to get to these numbers:

2010—$12.5 million
2011—$23 million

If I stopped here it would be a bad deal. But I've got more, one entirely separate bad deal—

2012—$21 million
2013—$21 million

That's like signing Vernon Wells to a bad contract—five years, $63 million—and then signing him again, at the conclusion of the contract, to Manny Ramirez's deal. (You know? It really is...)

THE FRANKLIN DEAL: Three mid-contract renegotiations less necessary than Ryan Franklin's

3. Vernon Wells. Why on earth did they renegotiate after his career year when they had one more on which to base things? Were they concerned that the Vernon Wells would take it as a serious personal affront?

2. Travis Hafner. You've got a slugger who has just turned 30 and who, while brilliant, has serious old player skills. He's gotten off to a slow start this season, but it's alright—you've got him signed through the end of the next year on a deal that's beneficial for all parties concerned. Do you A) wait out his slump, or B) sign him to a four year, $57 million contract that wipes out your attractive year and a half as a show of good will?

1. Chris Carpenter. It hurts, it really does. But at least we don't have to blame this one on John Mozeliak. I'm aware that this is easier for us to do, as armchair GMs, than it is for the actual executives, who are dealing with actual human beings they will have to see on a semi-regular basis. And it's not just the player—fans can be pretty quick to accuse teams of not opening up DeWallet, and the Vernon Wells deal was apparently engineered, to some degree, by the Blue Jays' owner.

But in general, contracts like Lohse's and Franklin's—on a smaller scale, luckily—illustrate how risky a business it is to use contracts to send messages to players, fans, or owners. A pat on the back might have done more good for Ryan Franklin than an extra $4 million on his head.

Closers Struggling This Postseason

Eric Stephen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:14:16 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

At this exact moment, the Dodgers still had the lead last night.

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If there is one trend this postseason, it might be the blown save. Jonathan Broxton was the latest to fall victim to it, last night, as Jimmy Rollins smoked a two-run double to turn a potential tied series into a commanding 3-1 series lead. But Broxton is not alone this October. Closers have entered a playoff game in a save situation 16 times so far this offseason, and six times they have blown the lead, a stark contrast to last season:

Closers in Save Situations, 2008-2009 Playoffs
Year	Sv	BSv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WHIP	BA/OBP/SLG
2008	15	3	22.2	14	5	5	7	32	1.99	2.40	0.926	.177/.241/.304
2009	10	6	15.0	19	14	12	13	8	7.20	6.62	2.133	.302/.429/.460

In addition to Broxton, the blown saves are spread out among six of the eight playoff teams. Alex Rodriguez is responsible for two of them, with game-tying home runs in separate games off Joe Nathan and Brian Fuentes. The Angels scored the first runs ever allowed in the postseason by Jonathan Papelbon while eliminating the Red Sox. The Dodgers benefited from Ryan Franklin's wildness (and Matt Holliday's gaffe) in the NLDS.

Mariano Rivera is one of the two playoff closers without a blown save this year, which doesn't come as much of a surprise since his plaque in Cooperstown should probably say "greatest closer ever" or something close to that. The only other unblemished closer this postseason has been Brad Lidge, who was easily the most blemished during the regular season, with his 11 blown saves and 7.21 ERA.

With the wound from last night's game still fresh, I don't know if this is comforting or not. But just know that Broxton isn't alone in struggling this offseason. Misery has plenty of company.

Trader Mo Redux

the red baron — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:59:51 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Yep, that's right. Jeff Fucking Weaver. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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The worst part was I really believed in this team.

I'm actually of two minds, really; the analyst side of me, the part that studies the game and writes about it for a living, never honestly thought this team a legitimate title contender. I always said the offense was undependable and the bullpen just didn't have the kind of shutdown arms that lead to postseason success. You can go back and read the published record, too; I always thought the Cards had a chance, yes, but I never bought into them as a juggernaut in the 2004 mold.

The problem comes when you consider the other side, the fan side, of the equation. The fan in me didn't see those things, didn't fear the bullpen. In my heart, I thought the Cards could would most definitely absolutely will turn it on come playoff time. Tony La Russa teams don't get knocked out in the divisional series, after all; La Russa's overall postseason record may not be the stuff of legend, but his record in the NLDS certainly is. In my mind, the Cards' offense was wildly inconsistent and capable of being shut down at any moment; in my heart, the holy trinity of PujolsHollidayLudwick would crush the spirits and WPAs of any and all opponents. In my mind, Ryan Franklin had saved only a single game in the final month of the season and was looking more and more like fodder for the glue factory; in my heart he was ready to etch his name indelibly into Cardinal lore with a strikeout and a photograph as teammates leapt and capered on their way toward the victory pile on the mound.

So when I say I believed in this team, understand I mean it halfway, and somehow that's worse than all the way. If I had thought this team the greatest of all time and then watched the collapse, perhaps I could mourn properly; begin with shock and disbelief, then move right on through anger at the shoddy play and the zombified end to depression for the end of the season and finally to acceptance of our fate as a team not quite as good as it looked. But this halfway belief is awful; I know I should have known better because I did know better, yet I was still just as shocked and horrified when I turned out to be right. I'm left feeling vindicated and miserable in vindication.

But any way you wish to slice things, the season is now over. The time has now come to look ahead, not back, to move forward, not sideways, and always whirling, whirling toward the future. But before we can look forward, we have to do just a bit more hindsighting.

The 2009 season will be forever defined, for better or for worse, by the trades that were made. The Cards went all in this season, only to see it all fall apart when the playoffs arrived. That's the problem with going all in, of course, and the reason so many of us (myself included), weren't huge fans of the Matt Holliday deal long before he became Public Enemy #1 in Cardinal Nation for trying to catch a humpback liner with his genitals; going all in is great if you win, because flags do in fact fly forever, but if you come up a little short, there is no Plan B.

So what, exactly, did the Cardinals gain, and what did they lose? Let's do us a little redux here of the deals made and see where we stand at the end of this ultimately frustrating 2009 season, shall we?

The Khalil Greene Trade

I'll be the first to admit it: I was a huge fan of this deal at the time. I was. I thought Greene to be a significantly undervalued player whose numbers were being artificially suppressed by his home ballpark. Add in a truly brutal 2008 campaign that no ballpark could have made look any better, and you had a player ripe for a renaissance. I felt like the inclusion of a player to be named later in the deal made the price a bit on the high side, considering just how awful Greene's numbers were, but I was still quite excited about the Cardinals' new shortstop.

Well, see, there's a little problem with that.

We were all, of course, unaware at the time Khalil's problems went a little deeper than a declining slugging percentage. For the life of me, I still can't quite figure out if I should blame Johnny Mo and Co. for not being more aware of Khalil's penchant for long sleeves and Bauhaus records or not. On the one hand, you want to be pissed they didn't do their due diligence and somehow missed the thing, but on the other, psychological problems aren't like a frayed rotator cuff. There's no magical scan that reveals when someone is hurting on the inside, and it isn't as if his teammates were jumping at the chance to talk about how messed up Khalil is.

What Was Given Up: Luke Gregerson, RHP Mark Worrell, RHP

Okay, so we can put this one solidly in the loss column. Worrell clearly had no place in the organisation after he aired his dirty laundry publicly last offseason, a factor which helped make me even more positive on the deal when it was made. Unfortunately, the player to be named later turned out to be Gregerson, a guy plenty of prospect-watchers really liked, and he turned out to be pretty damned good.

In 75 inning this season, Gregerson was absolutely brilliant, posting a 2.50 FIP for the Padres. He is pitching in a park which heavily suppresses home runs, so he does get a bit of a boost there, but he also struck out over eleven batters per nine innings, which so far as I know is at least fairly okay. What hurts worse is the fact the Cardinals biggest weakness by the end of the season, right-handed relief, just happens to be the exact demographic Gregerson belongs to. (You're going to notice a pattern here.) Any and all contributions the Padres receive from Mark Worrell are secondary at this point; San Diego already received a full season of essentially closer-level production for free in exchange for the Marquis de SAD.

The Future: The Cardinals get nothing when Khalil walks. Not so good, Mo.

The Mark DeRosa Trade

This one I had mixed feelings on from the very start. I felt the Cardinals did a fine job of identifying an area of weakness and acting to bring a player in to address that weakness, but I also felt they gave up far too much in return for said player. (Again, you may notice a theme in this vein.) DeRosa seemed like such an ideal fit, though, that I mostly kept such concerns to myself. The Cards needed someone better than Thursty Joe at third base, and Mark DeRosa plays third base, among other things. The Cards needed help hitting left-handed pitching, and Mark DeRosa has typically murdered lefties. On top of that, he had a reputation as an outstanding clubhouse guy, and his interviews are pure gold.

Sadly, DeRosa simply wasn't very good for the Cardinals. His OBP was atrocious, he struggled to do anything but hit home runs the first month or so, then went whole hog and struggled to do that, too. His defense wasn't bad, but it wasn't really all that good, either. Bottom line, Mark DeRosa in a Cardinal uniform just wasn't as cool as a lot of people thought it was going to be.

What Was Given Up: Chris Perez, RHP Jess Todd, RHP

Oy. This one really hurts. The Cards sent Chris Perez and Jess Todd to the Indians in exchange for Mr. Of the Rose, and once again, those two players fall squarely into that category of "Guys the Cards Sure Could Use More Of Now." Both are right-handed relievers, and both are solid bets to be very good pitchers going forward, I do believe.

Perez in particular is a painful loss, as he has better stuff than anyone in the Cardinal bullpen as it stands right now, and showed plenty of signs of putting it all together for the Indians. He had a truly remarkable run for almost two months, as he didn't surrender a single run from the 8th of July through the 5th of September. Perez appeared in 20 games during that time frame, covering 20.2 innings, and walked only 5 hitters. He didn't issue a free pass for almost a month, from the 9th of August to the 5th of September. Unfortunately, Perez did have a rough September overall, particularly in the middle of the month, but that doesn't change the fact he was essentially untouchable for the two months prior. We could debate why Perez didn't have more success here until the cows come home, but the fact remains he was an extremely valuable reliever for Cleveland, and I expect big things from Perez as soon as 2010.

Jess Todd, formerly slated to become Destroyer of Worlds for St. Louis, had a bit of a rough go in his first couple tastes of the major leagues. We all saw what happened to him when he made his major league debut with the Cardinals, and it didn't get appreciably better for Todd with the Indians, as he posted a 7.40 ERA in 20.2 innings with them. That does come with a 4.31 FIP and a BABIP of .431 (Huh. What an odd coincidence.), so improvement should come even if Todd does the exact same thing next year he did this season. Of course, I personally don't expect him to do the exact same thing next season, I expect him to adjust to the big leagues and take off as an excellent setup reliever. He doesn't have the stuff of Perez, nor is he going to post the gaudy strikeout totals of Gregerson, but I see Todd in an eighth inning role sometime in the near future, and I see him doing a hell of a job at it.

The Future: This is actually the best part of the deal, as DeRosa is a Type B free agent. The Cards offer him arbitration and he signs somewhere else, they receive a supplemental round draft pick, which, incidentally, is the round in which Chris Perez was selected to begin with. So there is some value at least coming there. (Of course, DeRo could screw the pooch on that one by accepting arbitration, but hey, you pay your money and you take your chances.)

The Matt Holliday Trade

Ah, and now we come to the big one. (Did I hear a That's What She Said in the back? I believe I did! Hallelujah!) The deal for Matt Holliday is, so far, the defining moment of Mozeliak's tenure as GM; the moment in which Mr. Mo made his mark. What that mark may be exactly is still to be determined, but for those who complained all through Mo's first year-plus of stewardship that he hadn't really done anything, here you go. He certainly did something this time.

I won't lie; I didn't really like the Holliday deal when it was made, and I don't like it all that well now. I know I was in the definite minority back in July, but I thought the Cardinals massively overpaid for Holliday's services. That being said, the man is still the best left fielder in the game and represents a potent complement to Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup.

What Was Given Up: Brett Wallace, 3B Shane Peterson, OF Clayton Mortensen, RHP

Let's start with the biggest component, both literally and figuratively: Brett Wallace. There's been an extraordinary amount of ink and bandwidth both used already to discuss the Walrus, and the song remains the same: at the plate, he's a hell of a hitter. As a third baseman, he's a hell of a hitter.

The thing about Wallace is this: we always knew he was drafted to be traded at some point in time. Even the few scouts who liked his chances of sticking at third were careful to specify only in the short term; the man was moving across the diamond eventually. Even so, if he had managed to play third at anything less than a Bruanian pace, Wallace's bat would make him a very, very valuable player.

And for what it's worth, Total Zone Rating (the only defensive metric we really have for minor league guys), had Wallace as almost exactly an average defender at the hot corner this season. I know, I know, that can't possibly be right, because I saw him play there one day and he didn't get to a ball to his left he should have, and my brother said he misses those all the time and his best friend Todd said he talked to Wallace one time and he said he hated third base so much because he was so bad at it he was considering retiring rather than continue to embarrass himself on a nightly basis. Regardless of what we might think anecdotally, the numbers have Wallace as something less than a total disaster, and when it comes to defense, I trust the numbers more than my own eyes. Defense is just too hard to judge. So what we have is a player who has a bat that should carry him wherever he wants to go, and who should be able to play third base for at least a couple years at a level far short of that Braunian pace I was speaking of earlier. Sounds about right, doesn't it?

Add to Wallace Clay Mortensen and Shane Peterson, and you begin to have a pretty remarkable haul of talent going out for Matt Holliday. Mortensen himself will likely never be anything more than a #5 starter (though I still think there's a chance he could be better), but a #5 starter for free is still all kinds of valuable. As long as he can keep himself out of trouble with Johnny Law I think Mort should be fine.

More interesting to me, honestly, is Shane Peterson. I was never much of a fan of Peterson, to be honest (I never really likedhis swing; funny hand load and all), but since the trade I've gone and taken a closer look, and I think I may have missed the boat here. Peterson began the year in High-A Palm Beach, and posted an OPS near .800, no mean feat in that ballpark and that league. He moved up to Springfield and did alright in limited time there before he was traded. He went to Midland, the A's Double-A affiliate, and hit fairly well, with an OPS of .727. Certainly not a world-beating performance, by any means, but also not bad for a 21 year old playing in Double A for the first time.

Peterson is a guy who isn't going to hit for a ton of power, particularly of the over-the-fence variety, but he should hit plenty of doubles. He isn't a burner by any means, but he's got the wheels he could probably play center if necessary. He has just enough arm to play right field, though he' s played mostly left in his pro career. His walk rate is decent but not great, but you would think a coaching staff who stressed a good approach at the plate could be helpful with that. In short, Peterson doesn't do anything outstanding, but he does most things pretty well. He's literally almost the perfect Oakland player. I fully expect him to do very well in the A's organisation, where the value of getting on base will be heavily stressed.

The Future: When (or if, I suppose), Holliday heads out for the territories, he will do so as a Type A free agent. The Cards will receive the first round pick of whatever team signs him, unless said team picks in the first fifteen. Then it becomes their second round pick, and the whole thing just takes even one more step downward. Still, the fact Holliday could potentially bring back a first round pick and one in the supplemental goes a long way toward removing some of the sting of the package given up for him. Well, maybe not a long way, but some ways, anyway.

I'm just going to skip over the trade involving Chris Duncan and Deathgaze. The Cards got a free infielder with a decent bat and bad range, and the Red Sox got the chance to ensure Dave Duncan will never try to force his way into their organisation. Win all around.

So to sum up, the Cardinals this year gave up four right-handed relievers, two of whom could be real impact guys int he near future I think. Todd may be an impact guy too, but I think it might be another year or two before he gets there. We look at the big club's bullpen for 2010, and I have to say I'm a little concerned you might be able to build a better 'pen from guys the Cards traded away this year than what they still have.

The Cards also gave up their number one prospect, and the player most likely to make an impact playing at third base in 2010. David Freese is now the likely front-runner for the job, assuming both Troy Glaus and Mark DeRosa are gone, and while Freese is severely underrated by many, I think, he's no Brett Wallace.

So once again I'll say it: this is the problem with going all in. The Cards went all in this season trying to take advantage of the fact Chris Carpenter was fully healthy after two seasons on the shelf and Adam Wainwright was pitching at a Cy Young level, and I can't really blame them. The farm system was in plenty good shape to absorb the hit, and the big club looked ever so close to being a real contender. Now we have most of October left to consider how much talent left the organisation this year in return for the chance to pay free agents to do the same job in 2010 the kids we traded away could have done for free.

In the end, I said I can't blame them, and that's exactly what I mean. I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing (except I wouldn't have; in fact, i would always err on the side of holding on to my prospects, and would probably be a terrible GM who could never quite get over the hump), but the reality is this: the bullpen is an areaof huge concern for the Cardinals, and they trade three players who could help with that next year. Third base is a less pressing concern, but of no less import; the lineup needs production, and if Holliday walks I'm a little unsure where it's going to come from.

So I ask you all, without going down the road of how much we all hate Matt Holliday for making an error and having the temerity to take bad at-bats for three whole games, was it worth it? Was the remarkable run the Cardinals went on in August worth seeing Brett Wallace knock around AL West pitching for the next couple years? Was ruining the Cubs' good time at the top of the division worth seeing Ryan Franklin try to close out games a month past his expiration date, all the while knowing he was the Cardinals' best option still in a Cardinal uniform? Does the promise of extra draft picks take the sting out for you, or do you wish for a 'Bird, maybe not in the hand, but at least near enough to reach out and grab if necessary?

Was it worth it?

Oops, and I forgot a playlist.

The Baron's Playlist for the 14th of October, 2009

"The Ghost" - Deer Tick

"Actor Out of Work" - St. Vincent

"It Just Is" - Rilo Kiley

"My Funny Valentine" - Gerry Mulligan Quartet w/ Chet Baker

Anatomy Of An Amazing Dodger Comeback

Eric Stephen — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:12:51 -0000

More photos » by Matt Sayles - AP

Casey Blake's walk was a huge part of the amazing Game 2 comeback

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Dodgers Lead Series 2-0
Game 1	Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3
Game 2	Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	12:37pm
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm / 5:07pm
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

I still can't believe the Dodgers won yesterday.

They were done. Finished. Kaput. As James Loney stepped into the batter's box against Ryan Franklin with two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning, the Dodgers' chances of winning the game were roughly 4.1% (thanks to the fine folks at Fangraphs). As Loney lofted a lazy liner to short left field, I had already mentally prepared for a pivotal game three with a tied series Saturday in St. Louis. I have a tradition this season of posting a "We Win" photo, that used to run in the Cheers opening credits, as soon as the game is complete. If I had a similar "We Lose" graphic, I would have jumped the gun and posted it as the fly ball was in the air. I'm telling you, it was over!

Only, it wasn't over.

We all know what happened next. Holliday lost the ball in the lights, or he was distracted by the waving white towels (that weren't actually waving), or he was busy mentally calculating his paycheck next season after signing a $100+ million contract this winter. Whatever happened, Holliday didn't catch it, and the Dodgers were given new life.

However, we must remember the Holliday play didn't end the game. Look back at the play log from Fangraphs, and you'll see that after Loney reached base the Cardinals were still 86.7% favorites to win. There was still a game to be blown, and not by Holliday. Just like Bill Buckner, who got too much blame for Game 6 of the 1986 World Series (the Red Sox already blew a two-run lead with two outs before his error), Holliday shouldn't bear the brunt of the burden.

Earlier in the broadcast of Game 2, Vin Scully was talking fondly of Rafael Furcal's sacrifice fly in Game 1. The fifth-inning run gave the Dodgers some insurance and breathing room, turning a 3-2 game into a 4-2 game. more importantly, it was an 11-pitch plate appearance by Furcal. It helped get Chris Carpenter out of the game after five innings, and allowed the Dodgers to get access to the Cardinal bullpen earlier than expected. Scully said it was the type of at-bat that wins championships.

Casey Blake had a similar plate appearance yesterday. Following Loney, Blake hit with pinch-runner Juan Pierre on second base. After falling behind 1-2, Blake took a nine-pitch walk, with tension dripping off every pitch. Each pitch brought Dodger Stadium to a heightened level of excitement. As Dylan Hernandez noted in the LA Times, the Dodger clubhouse all pointed to Blake's walk as a turning point:

"The hero of this game was Casey Blake," Belliard said.

Two lockers down, Rafael Furcal shared that opinion.

"The at-bat by Casey Blake is the at-bat that won the game," he said.

First calling Blake's plate appearance a "turno" -- the Spanish word for at-bat -- Furcal quickly corrected himself.

"El turnazo," he said.

Translation: Great at-bat.

Blake's walk was great, but the Dodgers still trailed, albeit with two runners on base. The Cardinals were still setting pretty with an 84.1% win expectancy.

Up stepped Ronnie Belliard, in the lineup for over Orlando Hudson because Joe Torre likes the way Belliard has been swinging the bat lately. Belliard delivered again, tying the game with a single to center, easily scoring Pierre. Dodger fans now breathe a sigh of relief, no longer trailing, defeat no longer imminent. In fact, with Russell Martin stepping to the plate, the Dodgers were now favored to win, with a 60.5% win expectancy.

Martin worked a four-pitch walk from a rattled Ryan Franklin, loading the bases for pinch-hitter Mark Loretta. Loretta, to put it kindly, has not had a good season. He hit .232/.309/.276 on the season, and there were good arguments to be made to leave him off the postseason roster entirely. In fairness, the Dodgers have had a short and pretty weak bench all season, and Loretta was asked to do things he shouldn't have been asked to do. Loretta's role should have been to hit against lefties, against whom he hit .273/.364/.345 this season. I'll take that OBP from a bench player any day of the week. However, Loretta was the primary pinch hitter against everyone for the first five months ofthe season, and he struggled mightily. After starting out blazing hot as a pinch hitter, Loretta went ice cold:

Mark Loretta as Pinch Hitter, 2009
Split	AB	H	RBI	BB	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Through May 15	14	8	3	4	.571/.667/.643	1.310
May 16-end of season	46	6	4	2	.130/.167/.152	.319
Regular Season Totals	60	14	7	6	.233/.303/.267	.570

However, as Phil Gurnee noted, all that changed with one at-bat, one swing, one Dodger win.

The playoffs are a crazy beast. Fortunes can change just like that. The Holliday error was huge yesterday, but it wasn't the only reason the Dodgers won. Game 2 was a reminder that Yogi Berra was right: baseball is never over until it's over.

Dodgers Cash In Gift, Send Cardinals To Brink Of Offseason Holliday

Eric Stephen — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:49:57 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Dodgers Lead Series 2-0
Game 1	Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3
Game 2	Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	12:37pm
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm / 5:07pm
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

I've heard of a sucker punch game, but this was a junk punch game for the Cardinals. The Cardinals held a 2-1 lead with two outs in the ninth inning, and James Loney lofted a soft line drive to Matt Holliday in left field. As Holliday came in to make the game-ending catch, he stumbled and missed the easy catch, and the ball appeared to hit him in the groin area, allowing Loney to reach second base on the error. The Dodgers were given new life.

Juan Pierre was brought in to pinch run, and Casey Blake walked, bringing up Ronnie Belliard, the surprise starter at second base for each of the first two games of this series. Belliard delivered, with a game-tying single to center, plating Pierre. A Russell Martin walk loaded the bases for the pitcher's spot. Mark Loretta, who struggled all year, came through with the biggest hit of his career, a soft single to centerfield to send Dodger fans everywhere into a state of euphoria with a 3-2 win and a 2-0 series lead.

The ending outshone a wonderful pitching duel between Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw was good, allowing just two runs in his 6.2 innings, but Wainwright was better, allowing only one run in his eight innings. The Dodger comeback win also overshadows a mistake by Torre in a tie game in the sixth inning, when he should have pinch hit for Kershaw, who had thrown 97 pitches to that point. That's all water under the bridge right now, thanks to the improbable comeback.

Wainwright was not happy with the white towels given out to fans at Dodger Stadium, believing they contributed to Holliday's misplay, telling MLB Network:

It doesn't really seem fair that the opposing team should be allowed to shake white towels when there's a white baseball flying through the air. Dodger blue towels, how about that?

I have good news for you, Adam. You won't have to worry about the Cardinals playing another game at Dodger Stadium this season. I do agree, though, that the towels should be blue.

Lucky or not, so far Torre's roster decisions are coming up golden so far this October:

Jeff Weaver: got out of a bases loaded jam yesterday. Check.
Ronnie Belliard: game-tying base hit today. Check.
Mark Loretta: game-winning hit today. Check.

Here's a link to Vin Scully's call of the game-winning hit on KABC.

By the way, that makes 13 walk-off hits this season for the Dodgers.

Friday is a time to rest, and bask in the commanding 2-0 series lead. Vicente Padilla will face Joel Pineiro Saturday at 3:07pm.

The game times have been determined for the rest of the series. Game four, if necessary, will be played Sunday at 12:37pm Pacific time. If both NL division series go to a fifth game, Tuesday will be played at 6:37pm at Dodger Stadium. If the other NL series is over, game five will be at 5:07pm.

WP - George Sherrill (1-0): 1 IP, 1 hit

LP - Ryan Franklin (0-1): 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 2 unearned runs, 2 walks

Box Score

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

NLDS Preview(?) Preview

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:09:02 -0000

I haven't read all of the comments, or really even most of them, over the last two days, but I'm sure it's safe to say there's a little panic going on. Thanks be to the Cards for some perspective. Remember the last time we faced St. Louis? We were 21-32 and just avoided a four game sweep to lowly Houston. We were 3-4 with Jim Tracy and facing the top two teams in the NL Central.

Fast forward. The second time the two teams square off is 3.5 months later, and it could be a preview of the an NLDS matchup. The Cardinals would need to finish ahead of Philadelphia, who currently outpaces St. Louis by a half game. From the cellar to a playoff preview. That's a nice little jump.

The Cards have been strong since that matchup too. After getting swept by the Rockies, St. Louis has gone a stout 68-37. The pitching was always there, but the offensive lineup received much-needed reinforcements. They needed extra parts, and the last time we faced them, Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday were rumored to be of interest to the Cards. Either the FO is impressionable by the press, loose-lipped with their plans or it's a happy coincidence, but they indeed added both also acquiring Julio Lugo after being dumped by Boston. In an ironic twist, RMN commented that he traded Holliday for Brett Wallace in a sim league well before that trade came to pass.

With the offense strengthened and the best rotation around, the Cards are a force (though less than 10 runs ahead of COL in run differential) and a good measuring stick, but the Rockies are solid at home. That series loss to San Diego was only the second in their last 12 at Coors Field.

With a magic number of seven, the Rockies cannot clinch anything this weekend. The Cardinals can clinch the NL Central with a win or Cubs loss.

Go make a positive rapport with Cards fans, especially if they indeed become a first round (or even second round) opponent. Here: Viva El Birdos

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (3.5 GB) @ Washington: Javier Vazquez (14-9) vs John Lannan (9-12). Tommy Hanson (10-4) vs. Garrett Mock (3-9). Derek Lowe (14-9) vs. Livan Hernandez (8-12).

San Francisco (4 GB) vs. Chicago Cubs: Tim Lincecum (14-6) vs. Carlos Zambrano (8-6). Barry Zito (10-12) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (6-2). Matt Cain (13-7) vs. Randy Wells (11-9).

Florida (4 GB) vs New York Mets: Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Tim Redding (3-6). Sean West (7-6) vs. John Maine (6-5). Josh Johnson (15-5) vs. Pat Misch (1-4).

St. Louis Cardinals (89-64, W1, 1st, MN=1)

Friday-Monday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

St. Louis' offense was very weak the last time we saw them. Suddenly hitters who were ill-prepared to shoulder the load of being the main threats in the lineup can now be role players.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Skip Schumaker - 2B	.304	4	35	.352	.377	.337	102
Colby Rasmus - CF	.258	16	51	.311	.423	.318	93
Albert Pujols - 1B	.330	47	129	.398	.557	.455	193
Matt Holliday - LF	.312	24	104	.391	.520	.391	143
Ryan Ludwick - RF	.271	20	89	.342	.408	.339	105
Mark DeRosa - 3B	.256	23	78	.324	.447	.334	100
Yadier Molina - C	.291	6	51	.309	.401	.338	99
Julio Lugo - SS	.260	3	20	.349	.414	.342	98

I included OPS+ in part to include the varied home parks DeRosa, Lugo and Holliday played in prior to their acquisition. Using a compilation of the stats, we can deduce that Pujols is a god/machine/alien and that Matt Holliday is an absolute All-Star quality stud. Ludwick is a bit above average while DeRosa, Lugo and Schumaker all come in at about average. Yadier Molina is quietly having a better offensive season than his brother Bengie, who gets to bat cleanup, and Colby Rasmus is having a rocky rookie season, though he's still a threat. There are no easy outs anymore. They have come a long way since having Khalil Greene hitting cleanup. And ohbytheway, Holliday is hitting .355 with 13 HR, 50 RBI and a .430 wOBA/172 OPS+ in 55 games with St. Louis. Someone wanted out of Oakland.

The bench currently houses Rick-throw-me-a-damn-fastball-Ankiel (.235, 11, 37), who has been splitting time with Rasmus in center. He is listed as the only reserve OF. David Freese (3-for-19), Troy Glaus (3-for-17), Khalil Greene (.205, 6, 24), Tyler Greene (.219, 2, 17), Brendan Ryan (.289, 3, 35) and Joe Thurston (.232, 1, 35) make up a predominantly right-handed bench as reserve infielders. The two current backup catchers are Jason LaRue (.239, 1, 3) and Matt Pagnozzi (No AB).

Check under the fold for reports on the arms, defense, pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

The starting pitching for St. Louis has been tremendous. Pitching in a fairly neutral park, the rotation has put up elite numbers:

Name	Stat	MLB Rank
ERA	3.60	2nd
FIP	3.57	1st
BB/9	2.36	1st
WHIP	1.27	2nd
HR/9	0.69	1st
K/BB	2.66	2nd

Give those numbers to one starting pitcher with a good offense and you may have a Cy Young candidate. But that's the entire staff. We'll get the top two in the rotation in Carpenter and Wainwright. Joel Pineiro has been bumped back a start, so we'll get a bit of a break with Kyle Lohse taking the bump, but that rotation is scary, even with Lohse in it.

The relievers have gotten better too, pushing their pen ERA down to 5th in MLB at 3.66. However, FIP (4.30) and tRA (4.88) don't like their pen at all, mostly since they lead MLB in pen BABIP at .276. Closer Ryan Franklin has had an All-Star season by limiting home runs and hits in general, though again, fancy metrics don't really like him (tRA=3.81, FIP=3.19).

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Franklin	4-3	60	0	0	0	37	5	59.0	46	13	13	2	21	43	1.98	1.14

The rest of the bullpen includes RH's Mitchell Boggs (96 ERA+), Blake Hawksworth (185), Josh Kinney (69), Kyle McClennan (150), Jason Motte (86), Todd Wellemeyer (72), and Brad Thompson (84). Tony LaRussa has just two lefties: Trevor Miller (211) and Dennys Reyes (127).

The Gloves: C

St. Louis has a very average 0.1 UZR/150, are right in the middle at 15th with 88 errors, and have the 14th best Fangraphs value. Easy grade of C, right? Don't forget though that the Cards have completely different starters on the left side of the diamond from the first half of the season, rendering season-long metrics as such inaccurate.

Their D up the middle is very bad. Skip Schumaker is doing enough to validate having him in the lineup after his transition to second, but he's the worst graded defensive 2B in the game this year. Julio Lugo is a big downgrade from Brendan Ryan. We know Holliday can handle Coors Field. He has a very strong Fangraphs value for the last three years...except with St. Louis. Colby Rasmus is solid in CF and Albert Pujols has a Gold Glove on his mantle. The rest of the starters are at least average. So two deadweights, two fairly good and the rest slightly above average. Eh, C it is.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Carpenter	16-4	26	26	3	1	0	0	180.2	148	48	47	7	34	136	2.34	1.01

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-6	26	25	1	1	0	0	145.0	167	75	72	18	46	75	4.47	1.47

Any hope for Todd Helton to win NL Comeback Player of the Year ended with Chris Carpenter's Cy Young contending performance this year. Quite frankly, you know you're right when your ERA, FIP and tRA are all under 3.0. We unfortunately missed him in June, because we would have hurt his career numbers against the Rockies - 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in 4 starts. Nowhere to go but up, right? He is in the top ten in MLB in Fangraphs pitch ratings for his fastball (7th), slider (7th) and curveball (9th). Three starts ago, he threw a complete game one-hit shutout. Last Saturday, he tossed 8 scoreless innings. But in the start between, the Braves ravaged him for seven runs. I'd say someone needs to call Bobby Cox, but I don't think he'd help us out very much right now. We all know Cook's story. He's returning from the disabled list after multiple injuries and bad starts, this after his simulated game was less impressive than a pitcher who has been out all year with a career-threatening injury. His audition for the playoffs starts now. Favors: CARDINALS strongly

Saturday, September 26, 6:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Adam Wainwright	18-8	38	32	1	0	0	0	219.0	201	69	63	16	63	193	2.59	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	14-11	31	31	1	0	0	0	205.0	175	82	79	12	78	181	3.47	1.23

What, another Cy Young caliber right-hander? Not fair. Wainwright has not been quite as effective as Carpenter, but not by much. The MLB's co-leader in wins has allowed more than 2 ER just 3 times in his last 21 starts, since facing Colorado to start June. We was awarded with a win in all three of those starts. His curveball value is 2nd in MLB and his slider is 5th, but that fastball has been hit around a bit. Some dude named Jason Berken in Baltimore has a fastball graded out as better than Wainwright's. He has won 11 of his 14 road starts, though his road ERA is nearly twice that of his ERA at Busch Stadium. After one atypical Ubaldo start and one trainwreck, Jimenez righted the ship with a strong gritty performance against the D-Backs. His leg should be completely healed by know, so he can commence firing unhittable sidewinders at Yorvit Torrealba. He has won 8 of 14 starts at Coors, where he has a better ERA than on the road. Favors: ROCKIES slightly

Sunday, September 27, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kyle Lohse	6-8	21	20	1	1	0	0	106.2	111	60	57	15	34	68	4.81	1.36

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	15-9	31	30	0	0	0	0	177.0	168	92	87	20	80	181	4.42	1.40

Kyle Lohse will always be connected to Kazuo Matsui in the minds of Rockies' fans. Tony LaRussa gave the Rockies a gift (unless we face them in the playoffs) by pushing Joel Pineiro back and letting us face Lohse. The right-hander is having his standard career season, being a step below average. He's 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in 5 career regular season starts against the Rox, 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two Coors starts. Jorge de la Rosa leaned over and unleashed a merciless stinker in his last start, but let's not forget opponents failed to score more than 3 ER off him in 15 of his last 18 starts. We ought not worry unless it becomes a trend. Favors: ROCKIES strongly

Albert Pujols is on a tear. When is he not? The Machine is hitting .385 with 6 HR and 8 2Bs in September. Matt Holliday has a hit in 19 of his 20 September starts. Those two plus Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick and Yadier Molina make up a majority of the starting lineup that is hitting over .300 this month.

Ryan Franklin has broken his hot streak (saves in 13 straight appearances, 14 straight scoreless appearances) in a big way. The Cards' closer has blown three straight save ops, has been scored upon in 4 of his 8 September outings and has an ERA approaching 9 this month. Mark DeRosa has multi-hit games in 2 of his last 3, but he's hitting just .224 for the month.

St. Louis looks primed to head into the playoffs exactly as they want to. Troy Glaus has a strained oblique and may or may not return this season, and Brendan Ryan is "questionable" with a stiff pinky finger, but he is active and available to pinch run. That's it. There are no other injuries. I'm pretty sure I myself am more bumped and bruised than their entire roster.

Poll

Because we should only worry about what the Rockies are doing, with a 3.5 game lead, do the Rockies help their chances this weekend?

Those Cardinals scare BadMarquis right out of me. We are so getting swept.

10 votes

No way. If you can't beat the Padres at home, you'll lose a series against a very strong St. Louis team

41 votes

Yeah. We'll right the ship with a series win, decreasing the chances of missing the playoffs by half

51 votes

Hot damn. We already swept season series from the Reds and Nats. Time to add another red team.

10 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed