SB Nation - David Eckstein

Interview: Matt Antonelli

jbox — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 07:44:17 -0000

Blogger Matt Antonelli

Like most of you we've really been enjoying Padres Infielder Matt Antonelli's blog and twitter. It gives a good insight into what it's like to be in the Padres system. We emailed him after joking around on the Gaslamp Ball the other day and he seems like a really nice guy. He has a good sense of humor but takes his profession seriously. Here's hoping we'll see more of him in a Padres uniform in 2010.

Now on to the hard hitting questions!

Gaslamp Ball: When the Padres found out recently that you were blogging did they try to shut you down? Give you ground rules? Lecture you? Has it even been brought up?

Matt Antonelli: I'm not really sure if the Padres know that I have a blog or not, but they have not said anything about it. I am not sure if they will or not in the future, but I don't think they have to worry about me saying anything they wouldn't want me to. I pretty much stick to only writing about myself. I decided to write my blog for fun and to let fans, friends, and family know what's going on in my life when I'm 3000 miles away from home.

What are two secrets about Matt Antonelli that we should know?

Haha I don't really have any secrets, but if I did I don't think it'd reveal them on the Internet.

With all the young guys in the clubhouse these days, who do you see as the team leaders both with the big league club and at Portland?

The big league club is definitely a young team, but there are also a lot of great veteran leaders on the team. If I had to pick a few quickly it would probably be a guy like David Eckstein or Adrian Gonzalez. I obviously haven't been around the team as much as some of the other guys, but during Spring Training and my short time up in 08' I saw that these guys have a lot knowledge that they offer the other players. I feel really fortunate to have David Eckstein play the same position as myself and be able to learn from him. As far as Portland goes, it is tough to say because I won't even know who is on the team until right around the end of March. I am sure we will pick up a player or two that is an older guy and can bring a lot of wisdom and experience to the triple-A level.

Terry Kennedy is the new AAA coach. Though you obviously intend to make the big league club does the change affect what you'll be doing in the offseason or during spring training?

I had a chance to be around TK a little bit during the last two spring trainings and I can tell he is a really great guy. I have a lot of friends that have played for him in San Antonio and I haven't heard a single bad thing about the guy. I know I would love playing for him. With that said, I personally won't be doing anything differently because he could possibly be my coach. I just look forward to learning from him during the season.

Do guys in the clubhouse discuss whether to marry a Minor League girlfriend or hold out for a Major League girl?

Haha that's a funny question. Nah, I don't think guys talk too much about what type of girl a certain guy should be with. Most of the guys that I am playing with are already married anyways, or they are engaged. I'm starting to feel old.

With the Padres promoting so many young players, it must have been frustrating to have been hit with injury. How do you like your chances to stick with the club this season?

It is never fun to be injured. I had gone pretty much my whole life without ever being injured and missing time because of it. It is no fun sitting on the bench or in the trainer's room and seeing your friends and teammates out there playing without you. As far as my chances on sticking with the team goes, I never look at who I think is ahead of me or behind me in the organization. I try to focus on myself, and what I can do to improve my game in order to make the club and play for a long time. If I play the way I feel I am capable of playing I know I will have a chance to play.

You talk a lot about your swing on your blog. There is so much jargon in swinging a baseball bat. What cliches do you actually find useful and try to implement in your swing? For example, does "keep your eye on the ball" or "quick hands" actually translate to something for you to do?

My swing has definitely been a major topic of discussion, especially after the last 2 seasons. I'd always just gone up to the plate and hit, but after I got into a few bad habits somehow I couldn't figure out how to fix it. I have looked at my swing over and over again, torn it down and built it back up. I am always searching for something easy to think or say to myself that will help me stay locked-in at the plate. I think everyone has something unique and a little different from someone else that they use to keep their swing intact. I have used a bunch of different techniques throughout my life and right now I feel I have the ones that will help me this season.

What are those giant faces outside the gates at PGE Park?

I have no idea what the hell those things are.

Is there any chance we could get you to renounce all Boston sports teams?

I think it is really funny how mad some people have got at me because I like Boston sports teams. Since being drafted I have actually lost my love of the Red Sox. Once you get picked by another team your loyalty changes. My job is to make myself the best player I can to help the Padres win. I really haven't followed the Sox since 2006. As far as it goes for the Patriots and Celtics, I don't think there is anyway you could change that. I still live in Boston and have lived here for 24 years. I am not one of those fans that shoves it in other people's face when my team wins, and I don't cry or lock myself in my house when they lose, but I still love them. If I end up playing in San Diego for a long time I am sure I will go to plenty of Chargers games and cheer for them, but if they play the Pats in the AFC Championship I'm sorry, but I'm rooting for the Pats.

Thanks for all the questions guys it was fun.

Thanks for taking the time to answer our questions, good luck this season! High fives all around!

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

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Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

Purple Row Awards: National League MVP

Silverblood — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:58:01 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Who is the man casting such a long shadow over the NL?

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The round of imaginary hardware-dispensing concludes today, in the form of the National League MVP. This is the last of the six awards voted on by the staff, and the third unanimous one, after which we will all have to sit back and wait for the real ones to be announced, then scoff behind our hands that they are clearly not as deserving as ours.

As ~~Jabberwocky~~ Poseidon warned, the choice may indeed be slightly contentious. Wanna see why? You have to JUMP.

Our new and improved, fail-safe magic baseball minds hereby unveil to you the best possible choice in all of baseball for the coveted MVP award....

David Eckstein

#22 / Second Base / San Diego Padres

Height: 5-7

Weight: 175

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 20, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - David Eckstein	136	503	64	131	27	2	2	50	39	46	3	1	.260	.323	.334

Yeah, your jaws are on the floor. But listen people, Eckstein was the cream of the crop this year. Whether it was his SCORP (Scrappiness Over Replacement Player) at 6.7, his Grit/9 at a appropriately gritty 11.4/9, or his Shortness/Hustle ratio (1:1) he topped the charts in every category you care to look at. Which is why we here at Purple Row unanimously award the Most Valuable Pest to Davi --

/is passed envelope

hangon er

/clears throat

I'm afraid there has been some kind of terrible mistake. Instead of awarding Most Valuable Pest, we're here to award Most Valuable Player. You know, one that is good at playing baseball. (But may not be quite as short, gritty, or scrappy as Eckstein. This is a travesty).

Actually, well, no. It's not. And the choice is still unanimous.

******

1. Albert Pujols

#5 / First Base / St. Louis Cardinals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 16, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Albert Pujols	160	568	124	186	45	1	47	135	115	64	16	4	.327	.443	.658

Okay, okay, I promise we're done yanking your chain now. As if it was going to be anybody else. Even for a guy with standards as high as Albert Pujols, the 2009 campaign was exceptional. You can reel off stat lines that look like video game numbers, but here's just a sample of which categories he led in this year, both traditional and sabergeek alike: OPS, runs scored, total bases, home runs, Adjusted OPS, Runs Created, extra base hits, times on base, Offensive Win Percentage, IBBs, and Home Run Per At-bat. He was third in batting average and RBI, but not by much. And he was doing all this even before acquiring his Tonto in the form of our old pal Matt Holliday. Baseball-Reference lists his top 5 comparisons through the age of 28: Jimmie Foxx, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Lou Gehrig, and Ken Griffey Jr. That's a pretty impressive list. And now, Albert, we ask that you make some space in your glittering trophy case for our humble, as well as imaginary, Purple Row Award. Aw, thanks. Aw, no, really. It's our pleasure. C'mon, man, you're embarrassing us.

2. Troy Tulowitzki

#2 / Shortstop / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 10, 1984

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Troy Tulowitzki	151	543	101	161	25	9	32	92	73	112	20	11	.297	.377	.552

Call this a homer pick if you like. It probably is. But despite purple-colored glasses being clamped so firmly on our faces, we were able to look at what Tulo did since June 8th -- when he changed his stance -- and the resultant part his performance played in spurring a team to one of the all-time biggest turnarounds of all time. From being the second-worst team in baseball (thank you Washington Nationals) to coming so damn close to stealing the NL West title out from beneath a Dodgers team that had had it on ice since May, there's a lot of ways to say that the Rockies' season was special. And as the point was often made by sportswriters, as Tulo goeth, so goeth the Rockies. He was undoubtedly the MVP of the team, and yes, we do feel ourselves justified in handing off second-place honors to him here. It's such a steep drop from Pujols to Number Two, moreover, that it's not really a problem.

t -3. Chase Utley

#26 / Second Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Dec 17, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chase Utley	156	571	112	161	28	4	31	93	88	110	23	0	.282	.397	.508

t-3. Hanley Ramirez

#2 / Shortstop / Florida Marlins

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Dec 23, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Hanley Ramirez	151	576	101	197	42	1	24	106	61	101	27	8	.342	.410	.543

Coming in tied at third were a pair of NL East beasts, Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez. Utley's numbers were more or less equal with Tulo's, and he was a vital part of a team that has now found itself in possession of its second consecutive pennant, but on a lineup like that, which had something like 5 guys over 30 homers, it's hard for me at least to say that he was particularly the most valuable. Undoubtedly the best-hitting second baseman in MLB, Utley is normally more defensively reliable than he was in the NLDS, and while he is a deserving candidate, it's only for second or third-place honors.

Hanley Ramirez continues his growth as one of the most dynamic players in the game (another NL shortstop wearing #2, I can get behind it) and I'm really hoping that next year, he and Tulo will combine to knock Rollins and Reyes (ugh) off the list of premier shortstops. All he did was hit, but lost some points (again, at least from me) for the rumors of his not exactly being a team player at times, and getting into clubhouse scuffles with Dan Uggla. Plus, the Marlins faded pretty steeply at a time they were still as much in the race as the Braves. Yeah, yeah, you can argue all you like about whether it means best player solely by stats or best player in regards to the team. I am firmly of the latter camp, which was why I was so disgusted when A-Rod won AL MVP a few years ago for a last-place Texas Rangers team.

Here's full disclosure of silly and/or lunatic voting by your hard-working staff:

NL MVP	RMN	PF	togb	Russ	Silverblood	Jabbs
1	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols
2	Chase Utley	Hanley Ramirez	Pablo Sandoval	Troy Tulowitzki	Troy Tulowitzki	Chase Utley
3	Hanley Ramirez	Troy Tulowitzki	Troy Tulowitzki	Chase Utley	Ryan Howard	Hanley Ramirez
4	Adrian Gonzalez	Chase Utley	Hanley Ramirez	Ryan Zimmerman	Adrian Gonzalez	Troy Tulowitzki
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Tim Lincecum	Matt Kemp	Hanley Ramirez	Pablo Sandoval	Matt Kemp

Full table of points, again weighted on a 50-40-30-20-10 scale:

Albert Pujols (300)
Troy Tulowitzki (170)
Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez (130)
Pablo Sandoval (50)
Adrian Gonzalez (40)
Ryan Howard (30)
Ryan Zimmerman (20)
Matt Kemp (20)
Tim Lincecum (10)

This is the end of the Purple Row Awards, everyone. Thank ya very much. Now we sit back and wait for the Hot Stove. First offseason move: Joel Peralta outrighted. I think we all support that.

San Diego Padres Predictions from the Bill James Handbook 2010

Dex — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:41:12 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

"I was looking at the Mayan calendar, and 2010 is our year. 2012, not so much." (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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I've got a sneak peak at the new Bill James Handbook 2010 and I want to go through and check out what we can look forward to next season. Bill James has been putting these handbooks together forevs and I always look at them with an eye towards who might do what, but also an eye towards pretending that I have an even better predictive model using the guts of a chicken splayed out over a burning Ouija board.

Let's check it...

	Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	RC	RC27	BB	SO	SB	CS	SB%	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Alfonzo,Eliezer	31	64	189	49	10	0	7	19	25	23	4.27	6	48	1	0	1	0.259	0.286	0.423	0.709
Blanco,Henry	38	82	228	51	11	0	6	22	23	23	3.38	20	52	0	0	0	0.224	0.286	0.351	0.637
Blanks,Kyle	23	142	524	145	23	3	25	79	93	89	6.07	66	140	3	2	0.6	0.277	0.362	0.475	0.837
Cabrera,Everth	23	145	545	146	29	11	3	90	44	74	4.68	67	117	37	12	0.76	0.268	0.353	0.378	0.731
Eckstein,David	35	128	444	120	21	1	3	57	35	49	3.91	34	40	4	2	0.67	0.27	0.337	0.342	0.68
Giles,Brian	39	92	292	77	17	1	7	40	36	43	5.18	47	36	2	1	0.67	0.264	0.371	0.401	0.772
Gonzalez,Adrian	28	161	614	171	37	2	35	97	106	117	6.87	87	127	1	0	1	0.279	0.372	0.516	0.888
Gonzalez,Edgar	32	63	112	30	6	0	3	13	13	15	4.7	11	22	1	1	0.5	0.268	0.344	0.402	0.746
Gwynn,Tony	27	88	212	56	8	2	1	29	14	24	3.9	22	32	10	4	0.71	0.264	0.336	0.335	0.671
Headley,Chase	26	149	528	150	36	3	17	72	72	87	5.94	63	129	8	3	0.73	0.284	0.365	0.455	0.819
Hundley,Nick	26	84	264	60	14	1	10	30	38	31	3.93	25	64	3	1	0.75	0.227	0.297	0.402	0.698
Kouzmanoff,Kevin	28	144	512	141	32	2	20	59	84	74	5.17	29	95	1	1	0.5	0.275	0.327	0.463	0.79
Rodriguez,Luis	30	95	244	62	13	1	2	27	20	27	3.84	28	21	1	1	0.5	0.254	0.331	0.34	0.671
Salazar,Oscar	32	88	246	72	16	1	9	31	40	40	5.94	18	33	1	1	0.5	0.293	0.341	0.476	0.817
Venable,Will	27	120	395	99	18	2	13	53	48	50	4.36	34	95	7	2	0.78	0.251	0.313	0.405	0.718

OK. So what does all of this mean? I'll tell you. It means we're effed.

I mean, maybe we aren't effed-effed, but still. Didn't this team feel faster in August and September? Didn't it feel more powerful? Was that just an illusion?

If this is the projection for our hitters, what does our starting lineup looking like at this point?

Is that really it? Doesn't it look weird to look at?

Bright Spots:

Everth Cabrera and Kyle Blanks both are predicted to up their production and both are young dudes. Everth is especially exciting for his speed and Kyle is exciting for the power. It's like Mantle and Maris! Blanks will probably end up protecting Adrian before the year is out, but probably not to start the season.
Adrian Gonzalez, while not predicted to put 40 over the fence next year, is still slated for another 100+ RBI season with close to 100 runs. Also, the doubles total bodes well for producing runs, but not so well for the needy children, dependent on these sadistic charities who will only donate money when Adrian puts a home run charge in the ball.

Mehs:

Kevin Kouzmanoff's numbers look kinda nice and I'm sure he'll total pretty close, but (sorry Kouz fans) I'm also thinking that a lot of the numbers will be put up in garbagy, unclutchy ways.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a catcher?
Something about Tony Gwynn's line looks really depressing.
Brian Giles is still on the team? How is he predicted to have so many ABs? Am I reading this right?

Tomorrow, let's look at pitchers. That should be scary fun.

In the meantime, the handbook is available for preorder. It would be rad of you to purchase the book through us. Maybe let's take some time right now to make really super bold predictions and then rub them in Bill James's face when ours turn out terrific.

Gaslamp Ball Chat Transcript

jbox — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:25:46 -0000

jbox: Who do you think is the most overrated Padre?

Dex: Tony Gwynn Jr.

jbox: I think I'd say Chris Young or Kouzmanoff, but I'll go with Chris Young. I think people only think he's good because he's tall. If he was a human instead of a clinical giant, he probably wouldn't always be injured and nobody would think he was a number one starter.

jbox: Which Padre do you look at and think "man I bet that guy smells"?

Dex: Heath Bell.

jbox: That's who I was going to say too.

Dex: If you had a box with a button in it and told each of the Padres that they could push the button and they would get a billion dollars, but somebody they didn't know would die, who would push the button first?

jbox: Chris Young. When that whole PED thing was happening he was the only one talking about how it affected his paycheck.

Dex: I think it'd be Adrian Gonzalez. We'd finally see his true colors and/or he'd consider that person a martyr as he donated the billion dollars to help needy children.

Dex: Same question, but the button added 3 inches to the persons manhood.

Dex: I think David Eckstein. His wife is too hot and famous for a little dude, anything to keep her around

jbox: I'd say Giles if we still consider him a Padre.

Phillies' Five Keys to the Series

David S. Cohen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:40:47 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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With the NLCS rematch starting tonight, here's a look at one fan's keys to the series:

1) Cole Hamels' performance. Despite what you may have read elsewhere, Cole Hamels has not been a different pitcher in 2009 than he was in 2009. In fact, he has been an almost identical pitcher both years, as the chart below shows:

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
2008	7.76	2.10	1.11	3.72
2009	7.81	2.00	1.12	3.72

Thus, from an analytic standpoint, this year's Cole Hamels is the same Cole Hamels who posted a 1.93 ERA against the Dodgers last year in the NLDS, winning both games he pitched.

However, from a results standpoint, this year's Cole Hamels, as we all know, has not been the same. He has been incredibly unlucky, as the results-oriented stats show:

	BABIP	AVG	WHIP	ERA
2008	0.270	0.231	1.08	3.09
2009	0.325	0.274	1.29	4.32

And, although the first chart is the best way to evaluate Cole Hamels as an individual player, the results on the day he pitches are what matters in determining who gets a win or loss that day (of course, along with the bullpen and offensive results). The Phillies' chances against the Dodgers may very well hinge on whether the lucky Hamels of 2008 or the unlucky Hamels of 2009 shows up.

2) Bullpen usage. The really wonderful side effect of Brad Lidge's struggles has been that Charlie Manuel has started managing his bullpen in a much smarter way. He is playing matchups, even if it means sitting his closer for much of the ninth inning. He is bringing in his best relievers earlier in games. He's even using his starting pitchers in key spots when they might otherwise not be used in a short series. If Manuel keeps up this bullpen usage, the Phillies can go a long way toward negating one of the major deficiencies they have. On the other hand, if Manuel thinks that the two S's next to Brad Lidge's name in the last two box scores indicate that Lidge is now "the closer" and goes back to robotically calling on him in the ninth and trying to get Ryan Madson to always set him up in the eighth, the bullpen is likely to flail, as it did much of the season.

3) Ryan Howard's at bats against lefties. The Rockies lost to the Phillies in part because Jim Tracy didn't have the guts or brains to pull Huston Street and put a lefty on the mound to face Ryan Howard in the top of the ninth Monday night. This year, Ryan Howard was Albert Pujols (a 1.076 OPS) against righties but David Eckstein (a .653 OPS) against lefties. With all righty starters, the Rockies weren't able to neutralize Howard as much as the Dodgers will be able to in the NLDS.

The Dodgers have two lefty starters (Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf) who will probably start 4 of the first 5 or 6 games of the series. With two very good lefties in his bullpen in Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill, if Joe Torre manages it correctly, in the 26ish plate appearances that Howard will probably get in the first 6 games of the series, Howard will only face righties 5 or 6 times. If Howard sees any more than that, Torre has made a major mistake. Thus, we need Howard, when he's hitting more like David Eckstein, to perform. After all, even Eckstein drives in the occasional run and hits the occasional home run.

4) Jayson Werth. Against lefties, Jayson Werth should bat cleanup. In fact, Jayson Werth should bat cleanup the entire series. That's crazy, you say? Ryan Howard is our cleanup hitter? Well, that's true most of the time, but not when he's going to be turned into David Eckstein (see previous point) for most of the series. On the other hand, Werth goes from Marlon Byrd (.806 OPS) against righties to Albert Pujols (a 1.080 OPS) against lefties. Here's the difference for Werth:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
v. RHP	0.256	0.348	0.457	0.806
v. LHP	0.302	0.436	0.644	1.080

In every way, Werth is a much better hitter against lefties. In fact, although not as drastic an absolute change as Howard's, Werth's performance against lefties puts the same quality hitter in the four-hole as Howard would be against righties.

Add in that Chase Utley actually hits lefties better than righties (.962 OPS compared to .877), and Werth hitting cleanup would keep the pressure on the Dodgers' pitchers that perfunctorily putting Howard there would alleviate. And, if Torre ignores the platoon difference and puts in a lefty to face Utley, putting Werth in between Utley and Howard gives the Phillies much more of a chance, as Torre would keep the lefty in against Werth, whereas he would probably take him out for Werth if Werth is batting after Howard.

5) Silencing Manny Ramirez. Despite the fact that the Phils won the World Series last year, most Phillies' fans probably still have nightmares of Manny Ramirez at the plate last October. In case you've purposefully pushed the memory from your mind, these were Manny's triple-slash numbers in the NLCS against the Phillies: .500/.643/1.100. This translates to a 1.743 OPS. Saying Manny was "on fire" against the Phils last October is like saying the Nationals were simply "not good" this year.

This year, Manny continued his absurd NLCS pace . . . but only for the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, Manny was a different player. In fact, he was quite human. And, as this chart shows, although he did improve a bit, his mere mortal performance continued in the NLDS against the Cardinals:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	0.355	0.487	0.669	1.156
2d Half	0.255	0.379	0.459	0.838
NLDS	0.308	0.357	0.538	0.896

If the 2d half and NLDS Manny shows up, the Phillies will have a much better chance of quieting the Dodgers' lineup. If the 1st half Manny, or worse, the NLCS Manny from last year, shows up, the Phillies are going to have their work cut out for them once again. Obviously, the Phillies were able to overcome that Manny last year, but it would be easier not to have to deal with that Manny.

So there you have it. If Cole Hamels' actual results are good, Charlie Manuel continues to strategically use his bullpen, Ryan Howard can manage to hit lefties, Jayson Werth continues to pummel lefties and does so from the cleanup spot, and Manny Ramirez stays human, then the Phillies are going to be in great shape.

Congratulations, Russell Branyan

Jeff — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:54:55 -0000

Voting results came out today, and Branyan finished 5th for the American League's Comeback Player Of The Year. Word has it he would have placed higher had he actually come back from something. Aaron Hill's a decent enough pick, I guess, what with his brain problems a year ago, but I feel like rewarding people for getting knocked out by David Eckstein might be setting a bad precedent.

Chris Carpenter's the obvious and perfect selection in the NL. My only quibble is that, rather than Yovani Gallardo, second place should've gone to the Rockies.

Fire Joe Morgan's Brave New Frontier: Mocking Good Players

devil_fingers — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:33:36 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Short, fast, white, no power, and a Yankee: I wonder what the Fire Joe Morgan guys will think of Brett Gardner? Whatever it is, I'm sure it's backed up with plenty of numbers!

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Let's get one thing straight. I love(d) Fire Joe Morgan as much as the next pretentious internet baseball fan. You can look through my various crappy postings and find their influence all over the place.

I love Joe Posnanski's stuff, too, so much that I wrote a Joe Posnanski Drinking Game a while back as a loving tribute (although I'm snot sure he took it that way... assuming that he knows I exist). But sometimes Joe writes things that bug me (e.g., his bizarre apologies for Pete Rose) and I make smartass remarks about it and people think I "don't like" Poz/JoPo. So let's get one thing clear:

JOE POSNANSKI IS MY FAVORITE SPORTS JOURNALIST, AND, NO, THAT ISN'T INTENDED TO DAMN HIM WITH FAINT PRAISE.

It's the same thing with the Fire Joe Morgan guys. The blog was great. I had a very brief and friendly email exchange with Junior a long time ago (that he undoubtedly doesn't remember). At one time I liked The Office so much that I wrote an extremely long post comparing the 2008 Royals with The Office. And even though the post-3rd season drop off of that show somewhat resembles the 2009 Royals, I still like it, them, and the Royals (for some reason).

I LIKE FIRE MORGAN AND GENERALLY FIND THE WRITERS TO BE FUNNY

But a person can only take so much. Like many of you, I am enjoying today's FJM Reunion at Deadspin. But then I read Junior's post about some other blogger's post about "scrappy" players. Yeah, I agree with Junior's underlying point that "scrappy" doesn't make a player good or not. I also realize his main beef is with the writer of the post, not the players. I realize how silly and predictable it is for some blogger (me) to write a quasi-Fisking of another blog's Fisking of another blog. Given that the intertubez are a lot like junior high, I also realize how stupid it is for me to "take on" a writer who is smarter than me, funnier than me, and (most of all) more popular than me. But I just can't resist. I mean, maybe the FJM guys somehow missed my award-winning (if after-the-fact) article on Walks, Defense and the New Moneyball, but I was late to the game myself. An aside about Nyjer Morgan (4.9 WAR this season) in Ken Tremendous's introductory post this morning is one thing... but then Junior has to go and pour salt in the wound...

Okay, it's not all that bad. I fact, I have no problem with most of it, even if it's a bit tired after all this time. Junior is right about many of the guys. I'll just give the Bleacher Report blogger's rankings, then a gist of Junior's comments.

#10. Eric Byrnes is terrible at this point in his career. Yup.

#9. Nate McLouth It's interesting how Junior doesn't have much to say about Nate McLouth other than the blogger he's ripping on wrote something "boring" about McLouth. For one thing, McClouth is a decent (>3 war) player... but no comments about McLouth's joke of a Gold Glove award in 2008? Not a huge deal, but a bad portent of things to come.

#8. Augie Ojeda. Funny comments about the stupidity of saying "knows how to play the game." Ojeda is actually a good defender, even if he can't hit, so he's a decent utility/stopgap guy.

#7. Aaron Rowand, a player not as good as he once was. Right on, if gratuitous.

#6. Reed Johnson, another crappy utility guy.

#5. David Eckstein. What a surprise (both for the inclusion and Junior's comments). Junior (admittedly) isn't breaking any new ground. But you know what's interesting? Certain media members have no doubt been annoying in their deification of Eckstein, but in terms of actual value, prior to 2008 he always delivered more value than he was paid for to his teams. A 4.0 War season for the World Champion 2002 Angels is pretty impressive. But even his stopgap 1.5 WAR years are good for the money -- and that's the main lesson, post-Moneyball, of sabermetrics -- a player being "good" or "bad" for his team is finally relative not only to what he contributes on the field, but how he's paid relative to that value. I'm not saying that Eckstein was/is actually a great player, of course, and FJM got a lot of great laughs out of mocking the way he was and is glorified by some sportswriters. But the truth is, having David Eckstein on your team at those salaries fro 2002-2007 was a pretty good idea. And that's a big difference in how the sabermetrically-savvy fans (the "real" sabermetricians always knew this) think in 2009 as opposed to, say, 2006.

#4. Chone Figgins. Junior says "Chone Figgins is pretty good." He's right. Looking at the FJM archives, you see they aren't that hard on Chone, and kind of like him. But that's an interesting contrast with

#3. Brett Gardner. This is the big one. It's awesome. Junior writes:

It's got to be tough when you're the worst player on your team and you arbitrarily get picked to be on a list of scrappy players because you're super white and you're the worst player on your team. He would also be the worst player on like 12 other teams.

I'm kidding, of course. A-Rod is the worst player on the Yankees, and in baseball history in general.

If you write any article about baseball and it's not a list of terrible players and Brett Gardner is in your article, you shouldn't write the article.

Love the A-Rod non sequitur. So 2006. But, um "Brett Gardner is terrible?" Now, I admit I haven't looked at Gardner's WARP3 or VORP or whatever advanced stats FJM liked to throw down back in the day (note that when I got my appendix removed earlier this summer, I also didn't go to a barber), but when I look at Gardner's WAR I somehow fail to see "terrible" player. 2.0 WAR is about average over a full season. Gardner is 2.0 WAR in only 248 PAs so far this season, and 1.1 WAR in 141 PAs in 2008. If you prefer comparing to average, Gardner has been above average both seasons.

Now, granted, less than 400 PA over two seasons is a very small sample. I don't want to be guilty of assuming current performance = true talent (I'm sure Junior is using a very sophisticated in-season projection tool). But still, he was projected at around .315 wOBA before the season, and even if you think he's "only" about a +12 defender in CF (his career UZR/150 is about +27), that's still a league average player. How is that "terrible?" How is that worse than Jose Molina? Heck, 2.0 WAR it's half a win better than his teammate Melky Cabrera has put up in much greater playing time. It's also about as good as FJM hero Adam Dunn has been this season, and way better than he was last season. I love Adam Dunn as a hitter, but as a player he's barely average... well, he's a perfect avatar of the prime FJM era, as Dunn was undervalued as a player at the same time VORP was a decent "total value" stat. Or when The Office was one of the better shows on TV.

Again, it's a small sample. Brett Gardner probably isn't quite as good as the stats have him as being so far this season. Flukes happen. For example, I once found something in an episode of Parks and Recreation funny. But you can't just say that Gardner is terrible because somebody called him "scrappy" and fits the "profile" (short, white, no power) of the guys that FJM loves to hate. And writing a column ripping someone else for not paying attention to stats while calling a player who is above average both offensively and defensively so far this season is just, well, something just like what FJM would have called out "back in the day."

#2. Shane Victorino. Apparently, nine Albert Pujols would beat a team with Shane Victorino on it. Outside of the question of how Albert $8 would do in CF, HAHA VICTORINO, YOU AREN'T AS GOOD AS ALBERT PUJOLS! YOU SUCK! Way to take down that moron. 3.4 WAR = TEH SUCK

#1. Dustin Pedroia. Junior's right. Pedroia helps his team by being good. Weird how Junior doesn't bring up Pedroia's "whiteness" here. It's probably because that isn't a factor for Red Sox fans (like the writers of FJM), given the racial tolerance and openness historically displayed by the Red Sox franchise, fans, and the city of Boston as a whole.

Then he ends with another rant about Eckstein, which isn't as fun as it should be, perhaps because it is about as tired as a sitcom love story after 5-6 seasons.

Okay, this wasn't as fun as I thought it would be (although it was a lot more enjoyable than the reliever post I've been muddling with for a few days). The Gardner thing was the only truly egregious silliness. Unless they bring up Nyjer Morgan again...

It's nice to have you guys back. If by some weird coincidence you manage to see this, please don't hurt me. But do take a look at FanGraphs when you get the chance. I hear this "sabermetrics" stuff is pretty cool.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:21:12 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Prince Fielder checks under his jersey to see if he's already wearing another jersey. He's not.

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Some things to read from your home on New Earth.

Ken Macha says he isn't worried about his job status for next season, but his meeting with reporters yesterday provided a couple of interesting tidbits:

Macha stressed that he has an "open door" policy with players, but very few have taken the time to sit down with him.
Doug Melvin, who has repeatedly been given opportunities to give a vote of confidence to Macha, continues to stick to his line about "evaluating after the season."

While Ken Macha might be headed somewhere, Prince Fielder likely is not, at least in the short term. In an interview during last night's game, Mark Attanasio told Telly Hughes the team doesn't need a major overhaul and gave no indication of any major moves on the horizon.

Meanwhile, there might be a move on the horizon for Carlos Zambrano. Rumors surfaced yesterday that the Cubs may be looking to move him and his big contract this offseason, and Zambrano was none too happy about it after the game. Jorge Says No! has a list of teams that might be interested.

Manny Parra said "there's small progress being made," but will still undergo an MRI on his stiff neck and will almost certainly not make his scheduled start on Friday. Either Chris Narveson or Josh Butler will likely start in his place, with the other pitcher being the first guy out of the bullpen.

Do you like debating the merits of Jason Kendall and want to expand the debate to a new audience? The Book Blog wants to know how long Kendall (and David Eckstein) should be allowed to play in the major leagues. Break out your best "But he calls a good game!" and head on over.

The Brewers unveiled their 2010 schedule yesterday, and will open the season at home on April 5 (FanShot). They're also starting all home games at ten minutes after the hour instead of five. Tyler Maas has a list of things you can do with that extra five minutes.

Around baseball:

Astros: Mike Hampton underwent surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and damage to his labrum and will miss the entire 2010 season.
Tigers: Magglio Ordonez made his 455th plate appearance last night, triggering a vesting option that will pay him $18 million next season.

If you've got half an hour to kill today and are looking for a discussion of replacement level players, Joe Posnanski has a worthwhile read on what exactly replacement level is, the reasons why a team would play a below-replacement level player, and how the Royals have spent all of 2009 with one on their cleanup spot.

Happy birthday today to Bronswell Patrick, who appeared in 32 games for the Brewers in 1996 and turns 39. He happens to share a birthday with Robin Yount, who turns 54.

Oh, and if you're going to run onto the field, you need to be in better shape than this.

Drink up.

Padres 3, Rockies 2: Padres show Rockies what a walk-off loss feels like

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 05:36:54 -0000

More photos » by K.C. Alfred - AP

Heath Bell blew his second straight save, but unfortunately, Bell's outing proved the better of the two teams' closers.

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The Rockies have won in dramatic fashion of late, a walk-off win here, a come-from-behind victory there. It was only a matter of time before Colorado was victim of the same. Franklin Morales (3-1, 2.75) gave up an infield single in the bottom of the tenth, then walked three straight batters for his first loss of the season. By the way, his name anagrams to "Minor Flake - Snarl."

The walk-off win - literally - was fitting for a game in which hits were at a premium. The teams went 11-for-64 (.172) in the game. Barring a reliever losing control, this game had the feeling of a late-inning marathon, but Morales' 18 pitch effort (only for five strikes) proved to be the elixir to chase away insomnia at PetCo again.

Still, even in a game the Rockies lost (and they do lose games from time to time), they completed a dramatic comeback. Troy Tulowitzki hit a solo home run in the sixth to halve the deficit. In the ninth inning, Brad Hawpe blooped a single and was replaced by Dexter Fowler on the bases, who promptly stole second before Yorvit Torrealba singled on a grounder off the mound up the middle, scoring Fowler and tying the game. It was Heath Bell's second blown save in as many days, both off hits by Torrealba. Bell had not blown a save at PetCo Park until this weekend.

82 - 61

NL West: 3.0 GB

WC: 5.5 Game Lead

Streak: Lost 1

Pyth W-L: 82-61

2008: 67-76

2007: 74-69

Esmil Rogers was impressive in his MLB debut, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks in four innings, striking out four by tossing 80 pitches. Everth Cabrera led off the bottom of the first with a 30-foot swinging bunt for a single. With the speedy Rockie on first, the unnerved Rogers walked David Eckstein. Adrian Gonzalez drove in Cabrera with a single, followed by a sac fly from Chase Headley, both on flat elevated fastballs. Then Rogers put his foot down.

Rogers permitted just a leadoff single from Henry Blanco and a walk to pitcher Tim Stauffer in his last 3.2 IP, highlighted by a perfectly painted 94mph fastball on the corner for a strikeout of Oscar Salazar. He retired the last seven men he faced. If not for that cheap Cabrera hit, that complexion of that first inning completely changed, and Rogers might have been unscored upon. He was quoted after the game as having had confidence issues with his breaking ball in the first inning, which he regained in the second. That confidence was palpable, as Rogers exhibited a notable swagger on the mound.

Aside from Morales, the Rockies' bullpen was very strong. Matt Belisle, Randy Flores, Matt Daley, Joe Beimel and Rafael Betancourt threw five scoreless innings, while an Adrian Gonzalez single off Belisle in the sixth represented the only baserunner the Padres managed in innings 5-9.

The Rockies offense was decent considering the smothering confines of PetCo, which is fitting given "Rockies offense" anagrams to "Fierceness of OK." Yorvit Torrealba broke up Tim Stauffer's no-hitter in the fifth inning, but several Rockies - including Tulowitzki, Fowler, Jason Giambi and Ian Stewart - retreated to the dugout after deep flyballs that would have been home runs in a fair major league park.

This one hurts, especially given the effort of the bullpen, the gutsy performance of Esmil Rogers and the perpetual resiliancy of the offense in late innings. What is important to remember though, is that this game was San Diego's most winnable game of the series, and the Rockies will be heavily favored tomorrow. What's also important to remember is the Giants lost again tonight, keeping the Rockies 5.5 games ahead in the wild card chase.

Comment of the Night

Yorvit Torrealba.

Heath Bell’s Worst Nightmare.

by Shoemaker on Sep 12, 2009 10:25 PM MDT

Join after the jump for the fangraph and the row call.

WPA Heroes:

Yorvit Torrealba (.257) - 2-for-4, Game-tying RBI in 9th
Troy Tulowitzki (.157) - 2-for-4, HR, RBI, R
Rafael Betancourt (.143) - 1.0 IP, K
Matt Belisle (.084) - 2.0 IP, H, K

WPA Zeroes:
Franklin Morales (-.357) - 0.1 IP, H, 3 BB, R, LOSS
Carlos Gonzalez (-.212) - 0-for-5
Ian Stewart (-.166) - 1-for-3, K, BB
Seth Smith (-.151) - 0-for-4, 2 K, BB.

Row Call

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