SB Nation - Ryan Ludwick

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Shopping Shane Victorino??

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

29 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Shane Victorino, right, is congratulated by Jimmy Rollins after scoring on a two run RBI single by Raul Ibanez during the eighth inning of Game 1 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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I was trading emails with my brother and a few friends yesterday, and one of my friends who listens to alot of Philadelphia talk radio said he heard that the Phillies may be quietly shopping Shane Victorino. I was shocked to hear that one, and none of the big rumors guys have yet to throw that one out there. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies would actually mess with a lineup that went to the World Series two years in a row.

So, why would the Phillies want to deal Victorino? I think there are several reasons. One is they have Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown in AAA and AA respectively, who are probably amongst the top 20-25 prospects in the game right now. Secondly, if the Phillies are serious about signing Cliff Lee long-term, then they need to move some salary to afford Lee. Victorino is up for arbitration again this year, after making $3+ million last year. That number could double in 2010 and beyond.

Factor in that the Phillies have two more years of Raul Ibanez and the $20 million left on his contract, and Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and the Phillies have some decisions to make with their outfielders. The contracts that Ryan Howard ($19 million in 2010), Chase Utley ($15 million in 2010), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million in 2010) and recently signed Placido Polanco (~$6 million in 2010), the Phillies infield is making almost $48 million in 2010. Add in what Cole Hamel, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Jamey Moyer and others are making, and the Phillies may want to consider dealing some salary where they have depth in the minors.

Who could have interest in Victorino? Well, the Toronto Blue Jays would certainly be interested in him if the Phillies are serious about dealing for ace starter Roy Halladay. Other teams would include the Braves, Marlins and Mets who all need an outfielder, but I am sure the Phillies wouldn't deal Victorino within their own division. The Cardinals would jump at the chance to trade for Victorino and make him their leadoff hitter. He could play right field with Ryan Ludwick moving over to left field. A package of pitching prospects could entice the Phillies. The Cubs are also looking for a centerfielder. Victorino could also lead off for the Cubs.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Shane Victorino to make room for Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Matt Diaz

gondeee — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:19:00 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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I think we can officially call the 2009 season of Atlanta Braves outfielder Matt Diaz a "breakout season." For all NL right-fielders with at least 100 plate appearances, Matt Diaz led the league in batting average and on-base percentage. He was behind six other players in slugging percentage in the NL, but he was behind only Adam LaRoche and David Ross in slugging percentage on the Braves. Diaz had a higher slugging average than sluggers like Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, and Ryan Ludwick.

While he only hit 13 homeruns, he did that in just 125 games at a rate of 3.1 percent. That rate is second on the Braves to only Brian McCann, and is the same rate that Diaz posted in 2007 when he put up very similar numbers to last year (which begs the question, wasn't that the "breakout season?"). His 2008 season and the dips in every category can be attributed to the knee injury he suffered and some bad luck as viewed by the big dip in his BAbip -- 60 points lower than his career average. Take away that injury-plagued year and add in a full slate of games and Diaz could be a batter who puts up a 20 homeruns and has an OPS in the neighborhood of .875.

I often think that Diaz would be a valuable pinch hitter, but he doesn't seem to be as good at a pinch hitter as he is as a starter. His career batting average as a pinch hitter is 35 points below his career batting average. That number could be attributed to some bad seasons his first few years in the league, as he did post better-than-respectable numbers for a pinch hitter from 2006 to 2008.

But Matt Diaz needs to be playing full time somewhere. After all, he is the "hittin' fool;" given that name by the way in which he swings at just about any pitch and seems to make contact. There's no way that the Braves should be thinking about taking a .300 hitter with good power out of their lineup. The problem is that he is sort of a guy without a position, and while he has good power, he doesn't have elite corner outfield power, and that seems to hurt his chances when stacked up against other players. His defense, too, is less than desirable, though not terrible.

I'd like to see the Braves give Diaz a few more at-bats next year. The Braves still need to go out and get a bigger power bat, but maybe Diaz can be that ninth-man type player who spells the left fielder, the right fielder, and the first baseman, and gets some at-bats when the matchup is favorable. Diaz could spell Jason Heyward and LaRoche (if he re-signs) against left-handers, since Diaz hits 70 points higher for his career -- and last year hit 157 points higher -- when a southpaw was on the mound. If Heyward is not deemed ready out of spring training, Diaz could keep the position warm until Heyward is ready to be called up.

It was one of the great failures of 2009 that a guy like Garret Anderson got 100 more plate appearances than Diaz, while putting up an OPS 173 points south of what Diaz put up. If only the Braves had seen that there was no need to go out and get Garret Anderson... they already had a better player on the team in Matt Diaz. Let's hope they don't repeat that mistake again this off-season. If the Braves go out and get an outfielder, they need to make him a real impact player, not the consolation prize that's signed a week into spring training.

Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Left Fielders

gondeee — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:25:43 -0000

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

The round table for left fielders in the Braves organization is after the jump.

MG: No way that Garret Anderson even sniffs a Braves uniform next year, right?
DH: Nah, likely not. Even if the Braves relied solely on internal candidates to man the position, it's still a cheaper alternative with Diaz, McLouth, and Church, left to right. He didn't exactly win any fans over with his lackadaisical play, and I hardly think anyone's really going to miss him at all.
CBW: You'd hope not. A .705 OPS out of left field is pathetic enough, but what's worse is how bad he was toward the end. He started off like crap with OPSs of .551 and .681 in April and May, before actually being useful in June and July with .804 and .944 OPSs, and then went to crap again at the end of the year with OPSs of .658 and .533 in August and September. His statistical season was a pyramid and the only time he was worth having at all was for the 187 plate appearances in June and July. And yeah, nobody really liked him, cause he sucked in the field, and, however fair this assessment is, didn't seem like he cared. But, Bobby kept hitting him 5th, so who knows? Logic says he won't be around, but logic would have said hit LaRoche 5th and bench Anderson.
MF: HAHAHAHAHA. No. If for some reason we can't go out and get a LF I think with the way Brandon Jones closed out the season in AAA he would have to get a look and be considered a similar (if not better) option simply because he is cheaper, can probably put up a .700 OPS and play good defense in LF. No way does Anderson come back.

MG: I think the Braves would have done better with Ryan Ludwick in left field. I sort of wish we had pulled the trigger on that rumored deal.
CBW: While I will point out that I was absoultely right in my estimation that Ludwick wasn't as good as his numbers from 07 or 08, which he proved by coming back to earth in 09, there's no question the Braves would have been better with him in left field, if only because Anderson was so pathetic. I personally was against the trade at the time, because I thought Ludwick would come back to earth, which he did, and I thought Johnson was worth more than a hitter you couldn't really be sure of. Granted, with hindsight if you could have flipped Johnson for Ludwick that would have been a great deal, because Prado showed himself capable of being a starter and Johnson really floundered this season, but since you can't know the future, I still say it was better not to make that trade. And anyway, it was a rumor, who knows how much reality there was behind it.
MF: I wasn't believer in Prado at the time, but I still would have flipped Johnson for Ludwick. I think Ludwick will rebound next season and the Cards could be really good with three big bats (assuming holliday returns). But either way, Ludwick would have been an improvement over Anderson in almost every month of the year and would have been better than the almost nothing we got out of Anderson.

MG: Who do you want to see the Braves go out and get as a left fielder? I don't think we have any chance at Matt Holliday, nor do I really want him at the price we would have to pay.
CBW: I want a real hitter. Left field has been a black hole for years and it would be nice to actually get some production out of it for once. Frankly, it should be the easiest spot on the field to stash a slugger, even if he can't play the OF well, but the Braves have run out a series of weak hitters, capping things off in 09 by having a poor hitter and a poor fielder. Who should they get? I have no clue; obviously you'd love to have guys like Bay or Holliday, but you know the Yankees and Red Sox are going to shell out way too much money and keep those guys away from everyone else. After that, I don't know about the free agent crop. You don't want to give up a first round pick for guys like Damon or Abreu or Guerrero, and probably not even for Dye (if he becomes a free agent). And after that, you're looking at a bunch of guys who aren't that great, and you're left just like last year, scrapeing around for a guy to get you by. Ideally we could use some of our young Minor League pitching to trade for somebody, but I have no idea who'd be realistic. Frank Wren's the guy they pay to figure that out, so hopefully he can finally get us a real hitter for left field and the cleanup spot.
MF: I really don't know either. Bay will most certainly go back to Boston (remember when we could have had him) and I think Holliday will stay in the NL, but if we have any shot to pay him then we have to get rid of Derek Lowe. I actually think 16 mil a year could get Holliday, but like gondeee said, do we want to pay him that? I've always loved Vlad Guerrero but he is a butcher in the field these days and I don't know how he would take to a move to LF. It stinks that there really aren't a lot of options for us. We are going to have to be really creative.

MG: Does anyone think that Cody Johnson can develop enough plate discipline to be a major league starter? He's young, so we have some time, but it seems like he's got a long way to go.
CBW: It's no secret that I'm a huge fan of Cody Johnson, and I really don't think anyone in the system consistently improves from one year to the next as he does. Does he strikeout a ton? Sure. But, he struck out in 34% of his plate appearances in 08 compare to 35% in 09, and in that same span he raised his OBP by .035 points, his slugging by .021 points, making his raise in OPS .056 points, all while moving up a level. That's improvement from one full season league to the next while keeping his biggest negative, the strikeouts, at a constant. It'd be nice if he could cut down on the strikeouts, but if he can keep them constant and keep the production up, that's something most teams can live with. Most of the guys who lead the home run lists, something Johnson looks poised to do, lead the strikeout lists. Frankly the Braves would have loved his kind of production out of left field this season, even with the strikeouts; he would have been a huge improvement over Garret Anderson. Granted, he's not likely to put up these kind of numbers immedately or even soon in the Majors, but you can't deny the power potential. AA is going to be a tough test for him, but he's only 21 years old and I personally believe in this kid's desire and ability.
MF: Mark my words now, Cody Johnson will spend two seasons in AA. I don't envision his 2010 campaign going well, but I do believe in his ability to improve. I don't really think his plate discipline is the problem as just his contact ratio kills him. He appears to be capable of not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, he just can't hit half of what is thrown to him in the zone. CB is right though if Cody can put up a .350 OBP and a .450 SLG you are looking at a productive player at almost any position. I think to make a real judgment on him we are going to have to see what he does at Mississippi this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him strike out 200 times and the only people in the pros I can think of that came close to that in the minors are Mark Reynolds and Ryan Howard and Cody has more extreme strike out totals and power than either one of those guys. Also, and I said this in the Top 5 list, Cody will have to learn to make 2 strike adjustments and start taking the ball the other way. That is something Ryan Howard is great at but Cody pulls nearly everything.

MG: I was ever-so-close to ranking Adam Milligan ahead of Cody Johnson for the top spot in left field. Johnson's homeruns are hard to ignore, but Milligan seems to have a better overall game.
CBW: I was really worried that when the lists were compiled that Milligan would come out ahead. Nothing against the kid, cause he looks like he's good, but he's 5 months older than Johnson and doesn't have the track record that he has, heck, he hasn't played a full season yet. I was very sceptical of Milligan when his season first started, but I definitely came around once he maintained his play. Yeah, he was maybe a little old for a true prospect in the Sally League, but it was also his first professional season, so that's a wash. The numbers he put up were outstanding. My question with him is, if he's really this good, why was nobody else aware of it? The Braves drafted him three times; nobody else took notice of this and they were able to get him in the 6th round? It just doesn't scream top prospect to me. I really want to see what he does next season, preferably at Myrtle Beach, because I want him to be this insanely good prospect, but I'm retaining some healthy doubt.
MF: Well I can actually speak to why Milligan wasn't taken by many people the first two times through. A lot of people thought he was committed to a football scholarship coming out HS so he didn't really show up on many radars and then the second time I believe there was talk of him going somewhere on a baseball scholarship from his Juco. Anyways he moved up from the 28th to the 27th and finally to the 6th RD so I think that by 2008 other teams were onto him and the Braves wanted to get it done. Two months ago I might have considered ranking Milligan higher because of Johnson's struggles and how hot Adam was but with the lukewarm reception Milligan has received from scouts in the post season I have reeled myself in a bit. I honestly think the only thing he needs to do is take a few more walks. If his K rate stays where it is now he will be fine, but he can't get by walking 30 times a season, but there isn't an excellent way to tell how much he will walk next season because most players walk less when they are in the middle of a hot streak and he was one for pretty much the whole season. We will see what kind of player he is next season when he starts at MB. If he tears it up I wouldn't be surprised to see him move fast. Hopefully one of these boom or bust LF prospects we have will pan out.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Garret Anderson

gondeee — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:08:43 -0000

When considering the 2009 season of Garret Anderson, I think it's more useful to look at the alternatives to Anderson that the Braves were considering, or at least rumored to be considering.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garret Anderson	135	496	52	133	27	0	13	61	27	73	1	0	.268	.303	.401

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Ludwick	139	486	63	129	20	1	22	97	41	106	4	2	.265	.329	.447

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Rick Ankiel	122	372	50	86	21	2	11	38	26	99	4	3	.231	.285	.387

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ken Griffey Jr.	117	387	44	83	19	0	19	57	63	80	0	0	.214	.324	.411

Just about the only improvement over Anderson on this list is Ryan Ludwick, who we were rumored to be trying to get in exchange for Kelly Johnson, but the Cardinals wanted Rafael Soriano. I would have preferred Ludwick, but that's been said numerous times. While he would have represented a significant increase in homerun hitting power, he would likely not have been the perfect long-term answer in left field.

Still, Ludwick would have been an improvement over Anderson. Let's harp on Garret for a while. His on-base percentage, a Francoeur-ian .303 number, was 6th-worst among qualified National League batters, and even worse than the .309 number that Jeff Francoeur himself put up. The numbers that Anderson put up across the board -- .268/.303/.401 -- were all the worst of his career -- which he is pretty clearly at the end of. Is it even worth bringing up how bad he was in the field?

Would we have been any better with Ankiel or Griffey? Probably not. I don't know if that underscores how rare premier hitters are to find and acquire, or how quickly major league clubs will settle for mediocre veterans. Here is one more name to consider:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Andruw Jones	82	281	43	60	18	0	17	43	45	72	5	1	.214	.323	.459

Better power, better patience, but not a better average. Still, Andruw Jones would have been better in left field than Garret Anderson -- that's pretty sad on multiple levels.

Pretty much all of Braves nation is looking forward to a major upgrade in left field next season. Settling for Anderson was one of the big failures of last off-season, and hopefully one that the Braves don't repeat again. I honestly can't remember the last player who spent an entire season on our roster in a starting role who was so maligned by fans and writers alike -- maybe Robert Fick.

Dodgers Division Series In Review

Eric Stephen — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:06:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Celebration is a wonderful thing

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It was a series pitting two closely matched teams against one another. In a close and short series, taking advantage of opportunities is usually the key, and the Dodgers were able to do that, sweeping away the Cardinals in three games.

The Dodgers faced the tall task of facing Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will both likely finish in the top three in NL Cy Young voting, in the first two games, but the Dodgers won them both, the second in improbable fashion with an unlikely ninth-inning comeback.

The Dodgers capitalized on nearly every opportunity, but the Cardinals did not, finishing with four hits in 30 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the series. The Dodger bullpen was an asset, as expected, and the Dodger starters got progressively better in each game.

The Dodgers who lost playoff series to the Cardinals in both 1985 and 2004, plus a regular-season playoff in 1946, were able to exact some measure of revenge with a 3-0 sweep. That the team with the best record in the league and best run differential in baseball won this series was not surprising, but the sweep was an unexpected and sweet result.

Dodger Batter of the Series: Andre Ethier managed to hit just one single in three games, yet still hit .500 for the series. He slammed two home runs, a pair of doubles, and a triple, and fell just a single shy of the cycle in the clinching victory Saturday.

Dodger Pitcher of the Series: This one was an easy call, as Vicente Padilla made his mark in Dodger history with seven scoreless innings in the closeout win in Game 3. Padilla's game was just the eighth in Dodger postseason history with seven or more scoreless innings allowing four hits or fewer.

Series Record: 3-0
13 runs scored (4.33 per game)
6 runs allowed (2.00 per game)
.805 pythagorean winning percentage

Overall Seasonal Record: 98-67 (.594)
793 runs scored (4.81 per game)
617 runs allowed (3.74 per game)
.613 pythagorean winning percentage (101-64)

Game 1 Key Moments

In the top of the first inning, the Cardinals got the first three men on base, the last via intentional walk to Albert Pujols. Looking at the run expectancy matrix from Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals would be expected to score 2.28 runs in the inning, and probably more with Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, and Yadier Molina coming up. However, the Cardinals scored just one run, and that was on a botched pop fly by Ronnie Belliard behind second base. After a very long top of the inning, the Dodgers immediately answered. A Rafael Furcal single was followed by a Matt Kemp laser beam home run to center, and the Dodgers never looked back.
Randy Wolf was ineffective, and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Jeff Weaver entered with two outs and the bases loaded, and pulled his Weaver magic yet again, getting Ryan Ludwick to ground back to the box to end the inning with the 3-2 lead preserved. In the regular season, opposing batters had just one hit in 20 at-bats against Weaver with the sacks jacked.

Game 2 Key Moments

Adam Wainwright pitched a great game in Game Two, and was cruising early, retiring the first 11 Dodgers. That is, until Ethier took him deep to tie the game at one.
With the game tied at one in the sixth inning, Joe Torre let Clayton Kershaw bat with one out. Kershaw was at 97 pitches, and although Kershaw has earned the right to be set free from his pitch count shackles at this point in the season, the Dodger bullpen is too strong not to utilize. Any advantage of Kershaw pitching over Ronald Belisario or Ramon Troncoso is greatly outweighed by the gain in having a real hitter at the plate in place of Kershaw. After grounding out in the sixth, Kershaw allowed the go-ahead run in the seventh.
On the Colby Rasmus RBI double, with nobody out, James Loney alertly cutoff the throw in the infield and nailed Rasmus at third base with one out, helping limit the Cardinals to one run in the inning.
Down one in the eighth inning, Torre used his best reliever, Jonathan Broxton, to face the all-righty heart of the lineup of Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick. Broxton retired all three, not allowing a ball hit out of the infield, to keep the Dodgers close.
With two outs down 2-1 in the ninth, James Loney lofted an easy game-ending soft liner to left, only to have Matt Holliday misplay it, the ball hitting off his groin as Loney ended up at second base. While that play would have certainly ended the game, it's important to note the Cardinals still had an 86.7% win expectancy after the misplay.
Casey Blake drew a nine-pitch walk, leading to a game-tying single by Ronnie Belliard, who has supplanted Orlando Hudson as the regular second baseman.
After a walk to Russell Martin, Mark Loretta came through with the biggest hit of his career, ending a six-for-46 pinch hitting drought with a walk-off single, the Dodgers' 13th walk-off win of the season.

Game 3 Key Moments

The Cardinals again loaded the bases in the first inning, this time with two outs, but Vicente Padilla ended the only real scoring threat against him by inducing an inning-ending groundout by Yadier Molina.
Holding a 1-0 advantage in the third inning, Andre Ethier provided some breathing room for the Dodgers with a bomb to right field, a two-run home run to extend the lead to 3-0.
Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel, finishing the series with a 101-mph fastball to end the Cardinals season.

Not Gonna Beat Us: The first three times Albert Pujols came to the plate with a runner in scoring position, Joe Torre decided to intentionally walk the best player in the game. Pujols was limited to one run batted in during the series, and that came with the Cardinals down five runs in the eighth inning of Game 3.

Run Record: Andre Ethier scored five runs in the series, tying the Dodger record for a division series. Manny Ramirez had five runs scored last year against the Cubs. Ethier did set the Dodger record for most extra-base hits in a division series, with five.

A Slight Concern: Matt Kemp hit his first career playoff home run in his first at-bat of the series in Game 1. However, after that, Kemp had just one hit in 13 at-bats, and had eight strikeouts.

Along For The Ride: The home opener this season had two stars -- well, three including Vin Scully -- Chad Billingsley, with his 11 strikeouts over seven innings, and Orlando Hudson, with the second cycle in LA Dodger history. Both made the National League All-Star team this year. Yet, their contribution this series was almost nil. Billingsley, who was scheduled to pitch a fourth game if needed, didn't pitch an inning, and Hudson didn't get a plate appearance, although he was used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner in all three games.

Game By Game Results:

Next Series: The Dodgers open the NLCS Thursday at Dodger Stadium, against either the Rockies or Phillies.

NLDS Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BABIP
Ethier	12	5	6	2	1	2	3	1	0/0	.500/.571/1.333	1.905	.500
Furcal	12	2	6	0	1	0	2	1	0/0	.500/.500/.667	1.167	.500
Manny	13	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	0/0	.308/.357/.538	.896	.364
Blake	11	1	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.300
Belliard	11	2	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.500
Loney	12	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.250/.308/.250	.558	.273
Kemp	14	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	0/0	.143/.143/.357	.500	.200
Martin	9	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	0/0	.111/.385/.111	.496	.125
Starters	94	12	28	5	2	3	12	11	0/0	.298/.380/.489	.869	.352
Loretta	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	1.000/1.000/1.000	2.000	1.000
Thome	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.333/.000	.333	.000
Hudson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Pierre	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Bench	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	.333/.500/.333	.833	.500
Pitchers	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Totals	105	13	29	5	2	3	13	11	0/0	.276/.358/.448	.806	.329

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Padilla	1	1-0	--	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	0.00	0.714	2.44
Kershaw	1	0-0	--	6.2	9	2	2	1	4	2.70	1.500	3.90
Wolf	1	0-0	--	3.2	6	2	2	5	2	4.91	3.000	5.33
Starters	3	1-0	--	17.1	19	4	4	7	10	2.08	1.500	3.61
Kuo	1	0-0	--	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0.00	2.000	-0.85
Broxton	3	0-0	1	3.2	4	1	1	0	4	2.45	1.091	0.97
Weaver	1	1-0	--	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.750	1.65
Belisario	2	0-0	--	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.000	3.15
Sherrill	3	1-0	--	2.1	1	1	1	1	0	3.86	0.857	5.72
Relievers	3	2-0	1	9.2	8	2	2	1	7	1.86	0.931	2.32
Totals	3	3-0	1	27.0	27	6	6	8	17	2.00	1.296	3.15

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

A Brief Look At The Cardinals

Eric Stephen — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:00:36 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Matt Holliday really, really likes playing in the National League

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Here is a brief first impression of the St. Louis Cardinals, who will travel to Dodger Stadium to start the division series on Wednesday.

The Cardinals can't hit left-handed pitching

On the season, the Cardinals had the worst OPS in all of baseball against southpaws, hitting .234/.312/.363. However, back in July they bolstered their roster by adding right-handed hitters Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo. They have helped, but this is still a weakness to exploit. July 24 was Holliday's first game in Cardinal Red, and from that day forward, the club hit .250/.324/.374 against lefties.

With Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw starting in the first two games of the series, and Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill waiting to drop the hammer in the later innings, look for the Dodger lefties make a huge impact in this series.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are really, really good

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will likely each finish in the top three in National League Cy Young voting, have started a total of 62 games. The Cardinals have won 41 of those games. Carpenter led the National League in ERA with a 2.24 mark, and Wainwright wasn't far behind at 2.63. They were sixth and seventh in the NL in x-FIP, at 3.46 and 3.45, respectively. Both were in the top ten in baseball in innings per start, at 6.9 each.

Carpenter has pitched seven innings or longer in 18 of 28 starts, and gave up more than three runs in a game just three times all season. He's also a control artist, having walked more than two batters only thrice this year. Wainwright pitched seven innings or more in 21 of 34 starts, and allowed more than three runs only seven times.

Don't forget about Joel Pineiro

Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan should bottle whatever magic potion he used on Joel Pineiro, because Pineiro has turned in the finest season of his career. Pineiro doesn't strike out anyone -- his 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings is 86th among 87 MLB pitchers who qualified for the ERA title -- but he does just about everything else well.

Pineiro led baseball with an absurdly low 1.12 walks per nine innings, and his rate of 0.43 home runs per nine is second in baseball. Bad news for Dodger fans is that number one in homers allowed per nine innings is Carpenter, at 0.33. I would really love to explain Pineiro's success as luck or a fluke, but his x-FIP is an impressive 3.73, good for 10th in the National League, giving the Cardinals three starters with a better x-FIP than the Dodger-best 3.94 of Clayton Kershaw.

Outside of the big two, this lineup can be pitched to

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and will provide a steady dose of anxiety for Dodger fans this entire series. Matt Holliday has been superb since coming back to the National League. These two we know about, with their .451 and .421 wOBA, respectively. However, the rest of the lineup features no real threat. Nobody else features an OPS+ above 105, and the next highest wOBA on the team are Julio Lugo at .347 (he's at .339 on the season including his Boston numbers), and Yadier Molina and Ryan Ludwick at .337 each, barely above league average. I realize the same can be said about the Dodger lineup, but color me unimpressed by anyone outside the 3-4 spots in red. If the situation comes up again where Hong Chih-Kuo or another Dodger pitcher needs to walk both Pujols and Holliday to retire an inferior hitter, sign me up for another strikeout of Ludwick or Rick Ankiel, or someone similar.

Rick Ankiel is Jeff Francoeur with a better backstory

I liked Rick Ankiel the pitcher. I was sad when he lost the ability to throw strikes. I loved the fact that he was able to make it back to the majors as a position player. It was a great, feel good story for a while. But it's over. Ankiel is hitting .231/.283/.387 this season. Rookie Colby Rasmus, meanwhile, is hitting .253/.308/.411. Plus/minus rates them about even defensively (-1 for Ankiel, -2 for Rasmus in about double the innings), while Ultimate Zone Rating shows a wider gap (Rasmus at +11.2 UZR/150, Ankiel at -10.1). St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz was a guest on Sunday's postgame DodgerTalk on KABC, and he mentioned the Cardinals might consider starting Ankiel against the Dodgers' two lefty starting pitchers in the first two games (both Ankiel and Rasmus bat from the left side), because the club feels Ankiel hits lefties better. A closer look at the numbers reveals a reason:

Player	PA	BA/OBP/SLG	BABIP
Ankiel	98	.234/.265/.298	.338
Rasmus	113	.163/.223/.260	.189

It seems to me the difference in their performance against lefties can be explained by luck, as Rasmus' batting average on balls in play is remarkably low. The bottom line is that Ankiel is a replacement level player (at 0.0 Wins Above Replacement), and any time he takes away from Rasmus this series is great news for the Dodgers.

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Rosters don't have to be submitted until 10am on Wednesday, but it appears the Cardinals will carry 12 pitchers, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Viva El Birdos is the Cardinals' blog on SB Nation. Be sure to check their site for in-depth analysis of the Cardinals. For instance, here is a thorough review by chuckb of the most valuable Cardinals in 2009.

This series will be close, and as we have seen in previous years, the results of the series can change at the drop of a hat. A grand slam here, a throwing error there, and the series changes direction in a heartbeat.

Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - National League Edition

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 23:18:58 -0000

With the increased emphasis on defense the last few years, I figured I would look at what playoff teams did statistically during the season and what can be expected of the teams in the playoffs. We will begin with the National League and look at the American League in a day or two once Minnesota and Detroit figure who is going. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. Fangraphs updates their data on Mondays, so this article doesn't contain the most recent week's fielding data, but should still give a general idea of the teams' defensive strengths and weaknesses.

First, here is the totals of all the NL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Phillies defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 40 more runs than the Rockies with the Dodgers and Cardinals just a little better than the Rockies.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

The major point I got from this comparison is that most of the teams were rather even except for the holes in the Colorado outfield.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to expect in the post season. For example, the Cardinals picked up Matt Holiday at the trading deadline. Matt will be for sure in the Cards lineup and the defense of the previous players shouldn't matter. For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of season values and regressed to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Albert Pujols had a 1.8 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near 6.4 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the weighted UZR values of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone). These values show the true talent of the fielders better than the small sample set of a single season.

Philadelphia Phillies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Ryan Howard	1.8
2B	Chase Utley	12.0
3B	Pedro Feliz	8.8
SS	Jimmy Rollins	6.1
LF	Raul Ibanez	-5.6
CF	Shane Victorino	0.1
RF	Jayson Werth	5.7

LA Dodgers (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	James Loney	-1.9
2B	Orlando Hudson	-2.3
3B	Casey Blake	-0.1
SS	Rafael Furcal	0.3
LF	Juan Pierre	1.7
LF	Manny Ramirez	-8.6
CF	Matt Kemp	2.0
RF	Andre Ethier	-5.9

St. Louis Cardinals (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	6.4
2B	Joe Thurston	0.5
2B	Skip Schumaker	-4.1
3B	Joe Thurston	-0.1
3B	Mark DeRosa	-1.2
SS	Khalil Greene	-2.8
SS	Brendan Ryan	5.3
LF	Matt Holliday	5.1
CF	Rick Ankiel	-2.2
CF	Colby Rasmus	4.5
RF	Ryan Ludwick	1.6

Colorado Rockies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Todd Helton	2.2
1B	Garrett Atkins	-1.3
2B	Clint Barmes	3.5
3B	Garrett Atkins	-5.6
3B	Ian Stewart	2.4
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	3.1
LF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.9
LF	Seth Smith	2.8
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.1
CF	Dexter Fowler	-6.1
CF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.8
RF	Brad Hawpe	-18.1
RF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.1

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First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.

I'm gonna keep on loving you, Arroyo Speedwagon. Reds win, 6-1.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Graynd Slaym. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. The Daynce Mix hit his first career grand slam to lead the Reds over the Cardinals.

Key Plays

Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce led off the second inning with walks, and RBI man Ryan Hanigan hit a single to score Rolen. Bronson Arroyo then singled to load the bases, and Drew Stubbs also drew a walk to force in Bruce. Reds 2, Cardinals 0.
The walks continued to haunt in the third inning. Brandon Phillips walked, Rolen doubled, and Bruce walked again. Up stepped Laynce Nix and bye bye baseball. Grand slam! Reds 6, Cardinals 0.
Nix was still feeling swell after his homer, and let Skip Schumaker's ball fall under his glove for a double. Albert Pujols then drove him in with a single. Reds 6, Cardinals 1.
Bronson left the game with one out in the ninth, after having walked Troy Glaus. Nick Masset came in and gave up a single to Pujols, a fielder's choice to Matt Holliday, and a walk to Colby Rasmus, before striking out Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds can do no worse than split the season series with the Cardinals. A win tomorrow gives them a 9-7 advantage.
The Reds went 18-9 in September, the only month in which they did not have double digit losses. Four of those losses were to Colorado, and five of those losses were by only one run.
John Smoltz complained that the game balls had not been properly rubbed with mud. Obviously it didn't seem to affect Arroyo, but Bronson did share this interesting nugget: "They don't mud them up as much here as they do at other places. It was a cool night, and it's hard to hold on sometimes." Could a mudding deficiency help explain some of our historically lackluster pitching?
Who says Dusty Baker ruins arms? Listen to why he pulled Arroyo with one out in the ninth: "He said he was running on empty and his legs were spent," Baker said. "When I heard that, you go get him, especially late in the season, 111 pitches and Pujols up there."
Joey Votto and Paul Janish both hit doubles. It was Votto's 16th double in September and Janish's tenth (out of 37 and 20 on the year, respectively).
Arroyo won 15 games for the second year in a row. He hasn't given up more than three runs in a game since July 22.
The Brewers lost, so the Reds are only one game out of third place.

Final - 9.30.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	X	6	8	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (15 - 13) LP: John Smoltz (1 - 3)

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