SB Nation - Chris Duncan

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Trader Mo Redux

the red baron — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:59:51 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Yep, that's right. Jeff Fucking Weaver. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

Browse more photos »

The worst part was I really believed in this team.

I'm actually of two minds, really; the analyst side of me, the part that studies the game and writes about it for a living, never honestly thought this team a legitimate title contender. I always said the offense was undependable and the bullpen just didn't have the kind of shutdown arms that lead to postseason success. You can go back and read the published record, too; I always thought the Cards had a chance, yes, but I never bought into them as a juggernaut in the 2004 mold.

The problem comes when you consider the other side, the fan side, of the equation. The fan in me didn't see those things, didn't fear the bullpen. In my heart, I thought the Cards could would most definitely absolutely will turn it on come playoff time. Tony La Russa teams don't get knocked out in the divisional series, after all; La Russa's overall postseason record may not be the stuff of legend, but his record in the NLDS certainly is. In my mind, the Cards' offense was wildly inconsistent and capable of being shut down at any moment; in my heart, the holy trinity of PujolsHollidayLudwick would crush the spirits and WPAs of any and all opponents. In my mind, Ryan Franklin had saved only a single game in the final month of the season and was looking more and more like fodder for the glue factory; in my heart he was ready to etch his name indelibly into Cardinal lore with a strikeout and a photograph as teammates leapt and capered on their way toward the victory pile on the mound.

So when I say I believed in this team, understand I mean it halfway, and somehow that's worse than all the way. If I had thought this team the greatest of all time and then watched the collapse, perhaps I could mourn properly; begin with shock and disbelief, then move right on through anger at the shoddy play and the zombified end to depression for the end of the season and finally to acceptance of our fate as a team not quite as good as it looked. But this halfway belief is awful; I know I should have known better because I did know better, yet I was still just as shocked and horrified when I turned out to be right. I'm left feeling vindicated and miserable in vindication.

But any way you wish to slice things, the season is now over. The time has now come to look ahead, not back, to move forward, not sideways, and always whirling, whirling toward the future. But before we can look forward, we have to do just a bit more hindsighting.

The 2009 season will be forever defined, for better or for worse, by the trades that were made. The Cards went all in this season, only to see it all fall apart when the playoffs arrived. That's the problem with going all in, of course, and the reason so many of us (myself included), weren't huge fans of the Matt Holliday deal long before he became Public Enemy #1 in Cardinal Nation for trying to catch a humpback liner with his genitals; going all in is great if you win, because flags do in fact fly forever, but if you come up a little short, there is no Plan B.

So what, exactly, did the Cardinals gain, and what did they lose? Let's do us a little redux here of the deals made and see where we stand at the end of this ultimately frustrating 2009 season, shall we?

The Khalil Greene Trade

I'll be the first to admit it: I was a huge fan of this deal at the time. I was. I thought Greene to be a significantly undervalued player whose numbers were being artificially suppressed by his home ballpark. Add in a truly brutal 2008 campaign that no ballpark could have made look any better, and you had a player ripe for a renaissance. I felt like the inclusion of a player to be named later in the deal made the price a bit on the high side, considering just how awful Greene's numbers were, but I was still quite excited about the Cardinals' new shortstop.

Well, see, there's a little problem with that.

We were all, of course, unaware at the time Khalil's problems went a little deeper than a declining slugging percentage. For the life of me, I still can't quite figure out if I should blame Johnny Mo and Co. for not being more aware of Khalil's penchant for long sleeves and Bauhaus records or not. On the one hand, you want to be pissed they didn't do their due diligence and somehow missed the thing, but on the other, psychological problems aren't like a frayed rotator cuff. There's no magical scan that reveals when someone is hurting on the inside, and it isn't as if his teammates were jumping at the chance to talk about how messed up Khalil is.

What Was Given Up: Luke Gregerson, RHP Mark Worrell, RHP

Okay, so we can put this one solidly in the loss column. Worrell clearly had no place in the organisation after he aired his dirty laundry publicly last offseason, a factor which helped make me even more positive on the deal when it was made. Unfortunately, the player to be named later turned out to be Gregerson, a guy plenty of prospect-watchers really liked, and he turned out to be pretty damned good.

In 75 inning this season, Gregerson was absolutely brilliant, posting a 2.50 FIP for the Padres. He is pitching in a park which heavily suppresses home runs, so he does get a bit of a boost there, but he also struck out over eleven batters per nine innings, which so far as I know is at least fairly okay. What hurts worse is the fact the Cardinals biggest weakness by the end of the season, right-handed relief, just happens to be the exact demographic Gregerson belongs to. (You're going to notice a pattern here.) Any and all contributions the Padres receive from Mark Worrell are secondary at this point; San Diego already received a full season of essentially closer-level production for free in exchange for the Marquis de SAD.

The Future: The Cardinals get nothing when Khalil walks. Not so good, Mo.

The Mark DeRosa Trade

This one I had mixed feelings on from the very start. I felt the Cardinals did a fine job of identifying an area of weakness and acting to bring a player in to address that weakness, but I also felt they gave up far too much in return for said player. (Again, you may notice a theme in this vein.) DeRosa seemed like such an ideal fit, though, that I mostly kept such concerns to myself. The Cards needed someone better than Thursty Joe at third base, and Mark DeRosa plays third base, among other things. The Cards needed help hitting left-handed pitching, and Mark DeRosa has typically murdered lefties. On top of that, he had a reputation as an outstanding clubhouse guy, and his interviews are pure gold.

Sadly, DeRosa simply wasn't very good for the Cardinals. His OBP was atrocious, he struggled to do anything but hit home runs the first month or so, then went whole hog and struggled to do that, too. His defense wasn't bad, but it wasn't really all that good, either. Bottom line, Mark DeRosa in a Cardinal uniform just wasn't as cool as a lot of people thought it was going to be.

What Was Given Up: Chris Perez, RHP Jess Todd, RHP

Oy. This one really hurts. The Cards sent Chris Perez and Jess Todd to the Indians in exchange for Mr. Of the Rose, and once again, those two players fall squarely into that category of "Guys the Cards Sure Could Use More Of Now." Both are right-handed relievers, and both are solid bets to be very good pitchers going forward, I do believe.

Perez in particular is a painful loss, as he has better stuff than anyone in the Cardinal bullpen as it stands right now, and showed plenty of signs of putting it all together for the Indians. He had a truly remarkable run for almost two months, as he didn't surrender a single run from the 8th of July through the 5th of September. Perez appeared in 20 games during that time frame, covering 20.2 innings, and walked only 5 hitters. He didn't issue a free pass for almost a month, from the 9th of August to the 5th of September. Unfortunately, Perez did have a rough September overall, particularly in the middle of the month, but that doesn't change the fact he was essentially untouchable for the two months prior. We could debate why Perez didn't have more success here until the cows come home, but the fact remains he was an extremely valuable reliever for Cleveland, and I expect big things from Perez as soon as 2010.

Jess Todd, formerly slated to become Destroyer of Worlds for St. Louis, had a bit of a rough go in his first couple tastes of the major leagues. We all saw what happened to him when he made his major league debut with the Cardinals, and it didn't get appreciably better for Todd with the Indians, as he posted a 7.40 ERA in 20.2 innings with them. That does come with a 4.31 FIP and a BABIP of .431 (Huh. What an odd coincidence.), so improvement should come even if Todd does the exact same thing next year he did this season. Of course, I personally don't expect him to do the exact same thing next season, I expect him to adjust to the big leagues and take off as an excellent setup reliever. He doesn't have the stuff of Perez, nor is he going to post the gaudy strikeout totals of Gregerson, but I see Todd in an eighth inning role sometime in the near future, and I see him doing a hell of a job at it.

The Future: This is actually the best part of the deal, as DeRosa is a Type B free agent. The Cards offer him arbitration and he signs somewhere else, they receive a supplemental round draft pick, which, incidentally, is the round in which Chris Perez was selected to begin with. So there is some value at least coming there. (Of course, DeRo could screw the pooch on that one by accepting arbitration, but hey, you pay your money and you take your chances.)

The Matt Holliday Trade

Ah, and now we come to the big one. (Did I hear a That's What She Said in the back? I believe I did! Hallelujah!) The deal for Matt Holliday is, so far, the defining moment of Mozeliak's tenure as GM; the moment in which Mr. Mo made his mark. What that mark may be exactly is still to be determined, but for those who complained all through Mo's first year-plus of stewardship that he hadn't really done anything, here you go. He certainly did something this time.

I won't lie; I didn't really like the Holliday deal when it was made, and I don't like it all that well now. I know I was in the definite minority back in July, but I thought the Cardinals massively overpaid for Holliday's services. That being said, the man is still the best left fielder in the game and represents a potent complement to Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup.

What Was Given Up: Brett Wallace, 3B Shane Peterson, OF Clayton Mortensen, RHP

Let's start with the biggest component, both literally and figuratively: Brett Wallace. There's been an extraordinary amount of ink and bandwidth both used already to discuss the Walrus, and the song remains the same: at the plate, he's a hell of a hitter. As a third baseman, he's a hell of a hitter.

The thing about Wallace is this: we always knew he was drafted to be traded at some point in time. Even the few scouts who liked his chances of sticking at third were careful to specify only in the short term; the man was moving across the diamond eventually. Even so, if he had managed to play third at anything less than a Bruanian pace, Wallace's bat would make him a very, very valuable player.

And for what it's worth, Total Zone Rating (the only defensive metric we really have for minor league guys), had Wallace as almost exactly an average defender at the hot corner this season. I know, I know, that can't possibly be right, because I saw him play there one day and he didn't get to a ball to his left he should have, and my brother said he misses those all the time and his best friend Todd said he talked to Wallace one time and he said he hated third base so much because he was so bad at it he was considering retiring rather than continue to embarrass himself on a nightly basis. Regardless of what we might think anecdotally, the numbers have Wallace as something less than a total disaster, and when it comes to defense, I trust the numbers more than my own eyes. Defense is just too hard to judge. So what we have is a player who has a bat that should carry him wherever he wants to go, and who should be able to play third base for at least a couple years at a level far short of that Braunian pace I was speaking of earlier. Sounds about right, doesn't it?

Add to Wallace Clay Mortensen and Shane Peterson, and you begin to have a pretty remarkable haul of talent going out for Matt Holliday. Mortensen himself will likely never be anything more than a #5 starter (though I still think there's a chance he could be better), but a #5 starter for free is still all kinds of valuable. As long as he can keep himself out of trouble with Johnny Law I think Mort should be fine.

More interesting to me, honestly, is Shane Peterson. I was never much of a fan of Peterson, to be honest (I never really likedhis swing; funny hand load and all), but since the trade I've gone and taken a closer look, and I think I may have missed the boat here. Peterson began the year in High-A Palm Beach, and posted an OPS near .800, no mean feat in that ballpark and that league. He moved up to Springfield and did alright in limited time there before he was traded. He went to Midland, the A's Double-A affiliate, and hit fairly well, with an OPS of .727. Certainly not a world-beating performance, by any means, but also not bad for a 21 year old playing in Double A for the first time.

Peterson is a guy who isn't going to hit for a ton of power, particularly of the over-the-fence variety, but he should hit plenty of doubles. He isn't a burner by any means, but he's got the wheels he could probably play center if necessary. He has just enough arm to play right field, though he' s played mostly left in his pro career. His walk rate is decent but not great, but you would think a coaching staff who stressed a good approach at the plate could be helpful with that. In short, Peterson doesn't do anything outstanding, but he does most things pretty well. He's literally almost the perfect Oakland player. I fully expect him to do very well in the A's organisation, where the value of getting on base will be heavily stressed.

The Future: When (or if, I suppose), Holliday heads out for the territories, he will do so as a Type A free agent. The Cards will receive the first round pick of whatever team signs him, unless said team picks in the first fifteen. Then it becomes their second round pick, and the whole thing just takes even one more step downward. Still, the fact Holliday could potentially bring back a first round pick and one in the supplemental goes a long way toward removing some of the sting of the package given up for him. Well, maybe not a long way, but some ways, anyway.

I'm just going to skip over the trade involving Chris Duncan and Deathgaze. The Cards got a free infielder with a decent bat and bad range, and the Red Sox got the chance to ensure Dave Duncan will never try to force his way into their organisation. Win all around.

So to sum up, the Cardinals this year gave up four right-handed relievers, two of whom could be real impact guys int he near future I think. Todd may be an impact guy too, but I think it might be another year or two before he gets there. We look at the big club's bullpen for 2010, and I have to say I'm a little concerned you might be able to build a better 'pen from guys the Cards traded away this year than what they still have.

The Cards also gave up their number one prospect, and the player most likely to make an impact playing at third base in 2010. David Freese is now the likely front-runner for the job, assuming both Troy Glaus and Mark DeRosa are gone, and while Freese is severely underrated by many, I think, he's no Brett Wallace.

So once again I'll say it: this is the problem with going all in. The Cards went all in this season trying to take advantage of the fact Chris Carpenter was fully healthy after two seasons on the shelf and Adam Wainwright was pitching at a Cy Young level, and I can't really blame them. The farm system was in plenty good shape to absorb the hit, and the big club looked ever so close to being a real contender. Now we have most of October left to consider how much talent left the organisation this year in return for the chance to pay free agents to do the same job in 2010 the kids we traded away could have done for free.

In the end, I said I can't blame them, and that's exactly what I mean. I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing (except I wouldn't have; in fact, i would always err on the side of holding on to my prospects, and would probably be a terrible GM who could never quite get over the hump), but the reality is this: the bullpen is an areaof huge concern for the Cardinals, and they trade three players who could help with that next year. Third base is a less pressing concern, but of no less import; the lineup needs production, and if Holliday walks I'm a little unsure where it's going to come from.

So I ask you all, without going down the road of how much we all hate Matt Holliday for making an error and having the temerity to take bad at-bats for three whole games, was it worth it? Was the remarkable run the Cardinals went on in August worth seeing Brett Wallace knock around AL West pitching for the next couple years? Was ruining the Cubs' good time at the top of the division worth seeing Ryan Franklin try to close out games a month past his expiration date, all the while knowing he was the Cardinals' best option still in a Cardinal uniform? Does the promise of extra draft picks take the sting out for you, or do you wish for a 'Bird, maybe not in the hand, but at least near enough to reach out and grab if necessary?

Was it worth it?

Oops, and I forgot a playlist.

The Baron's Playlist for the 14th of October, 2009

"The Ghost" - Deer Tick

"Actor Out of Work" - St. Vincent

"It Just Is" - Rilo Kiley

"My Funny Valentine" - Gerry Mulligan Quartet w/ Chet Baker

Does early exit mean so long for La Russa, Duncan?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 19:07:24 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

9 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa waits out a two-hour rain delay against the Minnesota Twins prior to their spring training baseball game in Fort Myers, Fla., Sunday, March 29, 2009.(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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The Cardinals performed like the Cubs of 2007 (and 2008, ahem) in the NLDS, scoring just six runs and going 4-for-30 with runners in scoring position. Pitching coach Dave Duncan may walk after 15 seasons with the Cardinals over a dispute with management, which could prelude the departure of manager Tony La Russa, who is unsigned beyond 2009.

Duncan has been left out of many front office decisions involving pitching in the past few years, and spoke openly against the handling of his son, Chris Duncan, when they traded him early this season. With several vacancies open, one of the top pitching coaches in recent years won't have any trouble finding a new job.

La Russa has been non-committal about 2010, which means he could hold out and wait for other jobs around the league to open, particularly with the Braves, Cubs, and Reds.

The early exit also doesn't help their chances for re-signing Matt Holliday, which could have long-term ramifications if they fail to sign him. Albert Pujols is only under through 2011, and if the Cardinals cannot show their commitment to winning, Pujols may walk. That means the owners need to be willing to spend this offseason.

This is a crucial offseason for GM Jon Mozeliak, whether he wants to admit it or not. Now that their season is over, now is the time to start talking with La Russa and Duncan, along with preparing a contract for infielder Mark DeRosa.

Poll

Will the Cardinals re-sign Matt Holliday?

Yes

56 votes

No

134 votes

190 votes | Poll has closed

Reflection

the red baron — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:10:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I would write a proper caption, but I could only cheapen the image. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Another offensive explosion, another sterling win for our heroes in red, another night of beautiful transit from summer into autumn. The leaves are turning, and that old familiar whisper of excitement is in the air of the city. We've missed it the past two seasons, and sorely. But that whispering, chattering idiot noise of September bliss is back in force now, as those of us born and bred into Cardinal love look to October glory once again.

Or maybe, more correctly, a vibration; a low humming everywhere you walk that has always been and always will be as the days shorten and cool. It begins in March, that hum of anticipation for the season about to begin, and continues on through the summer months, rising and falling with the fortunes of the Cardinals and the red-clad masses who follow. There are peaks and there are valleys; walkoff wins in the night over Chicago and listless losses to Pittsburgh. But it is always always always there, curling around your life until you barely even notice it. Some years that hum fades as the Cardinals fall out of the race, victims of poor planning, poor performance, or poor fortune. Some years the end of summer brings only a sigh, an inward invocation of next season as the year current winds toward its death. Some years that hum falls away with the leaves as their colour finally goes brown and they drop to the ground.

But not this year. No, this year there is a building, a hum that becomes a buzz that becomes a singing that becomes a ringing that becomes a shout. Playoff baseball is coming to St. Louis, and you don't have to look or listen for the anticipation. You only have to feel it.

It was a hell of game last night, one with a little bit of everything we hope to love about this team. There was an outstanding pitching performance. The offense simply overwhelmed the opposition, and the defense stepped firmly down on their necks to keep them from thoughts of rise.

In the whole game, though, the moment which stood out most to me, the key to the game if you will, was Colby Rasmus' plate appearance in the third inning. There were two outs, and Skip Schumaker had just driven in Julio Lugo for the first tally of the game with a single up the middle. It was an outstanding piece of work by Schumaker to begin with, to get the Cards' first baserunner of the game home after Lugo was sacrificed to second base. But the turning point was Rasmus. Behind him was Albert and the middle of the lineup; if Bazardo could just get the rookie, Pujols would have to lead off the fourth.

The count went quickly to 0-2, as Bazardo threw a wicked little changeup for a called strike one and Colby fouled off a fat fastball. The next pitch was another changeup, a little down and a little away, just the sort of pitch you want to see your pitcher throw on a two strike count. It was ohsosweet and tempting, and no one would have been surprised, I think, to see Colby swing. But he didn't. He let it go with a look, and just like that, the most important pitch of the game was taken for ball one. After that, Bazardo tried to clip the outside corner with fastballs, but he had left his paintbrush at home and Rasmus wisely just let the pitches go. Four straight balls and Colby trotted down to first base.

Albert came up with two men on and drove in Skip, and that brilliant bit of baserunning razzle-dazzle by Pujols and Colby plated the Cards' third run. But it was the walk that really created the inning. If Rasmus makes an out there, the inning is but a footnote in the eventual story of the game, one run on a clutch single in the third. Pujols bats leading off the fourth inning, and who knows where the story goes then? But Colby refusing to swing at that 0-2 changeup changed the entire dynamic of the inning. Instead of Albert leading off the fourth, he came to bat with two men on in the third, and Bazardo was forced to face the middle of the order in a scoring situation. And even though Pujols himself proved to be the last official batter of the inning, two more runners crossed the plate before the third out was made. Just a walk on the scorecard, and it seemed like such a small thing at the time, but it shifted the balance to the Cardinals' side, and they took advantage. The run Rasmus scored on he and Albert's running gambit proved to be the difference in the game, in fact.

The Cards could very well clinch tonight, if they can take care of their business and the Cubs cooperate. With that in mind, I thought we might take a moment to catch our breaths before the elation and look back at how we got here.

I think there are five things which really made the most difference for the Cardinals in 2009; five things to stand for all the hundreds of little things that have made it such a rewarding summer in St. Louis. And without further rambling from your author, they are as follows:

1) Fuentes Heads For the Coast

what it was -- Remember, back in the winter of aught eight, when the Cardinals desperately tried to sign a sinister hurler by the name of Brian Fuentes to close games for them? At the time, it seemed like the most important move anyone has ever made in the history of the game to many fans, fresh off the bullpen disaster that was 2008. When the Cardinals refused to include a third year option on a deal for Fuentes and he signed with the Angels, the bitterness and angst among many was truly awe-inspiring. There was wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments throughout the land -- and by the land I mean the Post-Dispatch boards and talk radio-- as the cries of cheap ownership and foolish General Managership reached a fever pitch. Those of us who believed in the Cardinals' young pitchers and those of us who believed Fuentes to be hugely overrated rallied together in an attempt to quell the uprising, but to little avail.

why it was important -- Brian Fuentes has been, to put it kindly, less than untouchable this season. Sure, he has 44 saves, but he's also blown seven, has given up a hit per inning, and is striking out four batters less per 9 than he did last season. His FIP for the year stands at 4.53, and that 2.24 he put up last year is looking more and more like the fevered dream of a madman. (Or the fevered dream of a contract year, however you like.)

More importantly, Fuentes would have cost the Cardinals at least $8.5 million this season and $9 million in 2010, stretching the payroll much tighter than it was on Opening Day. Fuentes would have been paid three times what Ryan Franklin was to do a worse job closing out games, and there quite likely wouldn't have been enough financial flexibility to make the moves the Cardinals did later in the year. So we can go back and sign Fuentes if you like, but it probably means no Holliday now. History is fun!

2) Franklin Comes Alive

what it was -- This one sort of bookends nicely with the Fuentes deal that wasn't, as the Cardinals received a very surprising performance in the closer role from Ryan Franklin. Debate all you like how good Franklin really is (and I think most of us are well aware he's nowhere near the pitcher he pitched like for quite a bit of the season), but he stepped in to the void at the back of the bullpen and locked it down for a good period of time.

why it was important -- Well, first off, it kept the Cardinals from losing a bunch of games through late-inning collapses, which is primarily what kept them from going to the playoffs last year. Second, on Opening Day, when Jason Motte got the first crack at closing out a game and blew it so magnificently, my father and I looked at each other (I was watching the game at his house), and said, "Here we go again." If Franklin doesn't step in and stabilise the bullpen, I think it's entirely possible Johnny Mo and Co. go into panic mode and make an ill-advised deal to try and bring in an established closer. And honestly, after witnessing the troubles of 2008, it would have been tough to blame them, but the end result could have been disastrous. Thankfully, Franky did the job, and no knee-jerk moves were needed.

3) Stuck in the Middle With Schu -- and Boog

what it was -- It's a little weird now to look back, but at the beginning of the season, the Cardinals' middle infield was desperately unsettled. Skip Schumaker was making a nearly unprecedented transition from the outfield to second base, and Khalil Greene was starting at shortstop. Most of us, myself most definitely included, thought bringing in Khalil was an excellent gamble, but it was still a gamble nonetheless. Unfortunately, K-Bot has gone all William H. Macy in The Cooler on us, leaving the shortstop position wide open. Five months later, Schumaker is a perfectly adequate player at second and Brendan Ryan has taken the shortstop position by force, turning into one of the best defensive shortstops in the league.

why it was important -- Honestly, can you imagine where we would be without Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan? If Schumaker can't pick grounders at even a Dan Uggla sort of level, we likely see Joe Thurston in the lineup every single day. And sure, Thurston's numbers put him in the "much too hated" category, but just think of the sheer number of extra outs the Cards would have made on the basepaths. It boggles the mind.

As for Ryan, you simply can't say enough about what he's meant to this team. If he doesn't take the steps forward he has this season, a) the pitchers all probably have about half a run tacked on to their ERAs, and b) we likely see either a crippled and damaged Khalil Greene trying to play in blood-soaked long sleeves all summer, or Tyler Greene swinging at pickoff throws. Thankfully, both Ryan and Schumaker have done pretty remarkable jobs this year of solidifying the middle infield, keeping us from the horrors that could easily have been.

4) A Carpenter and a Pinata

what it was -- Following a painfully disappointing 2008 for both pitchers, in which Chris Carpenter threw only a handful of innings while trying to come back from elbow surgery and Joel Pineiro earned his El Pinata nickname, 2009 looked a tad worrisome for the Cardinal rotation. Adam Wainwright was seen as the ace, Kyle Lohse the #2, and beyond that, oy. Most thought any innings at all from Chris Carpenter would be a bonus, and we all just wanted Pineiro to go away.

Instead, both pitchers have been outstanding, with Carpenter healthy for the first time since 2006 (minus a ribcage pull, but I mean arm-wise), and El Pinata posting an FIP 1.7 runs lower than in 2008. (4.71 vs. 3.01)

why it was important -- The Cardinals aren't standing where they are today without their rotation, simple as that. Even with the additions to the offense, the Cards still struggle to consistently score runs night in night out, leaving the heavy lifting to the pitchers. Kyle Lohse has had a really awful season, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and without the contributions of Carp and Pineiro, the rotation would have Wainwright and, um, pray for blight? I can't come up with a good rhyme there. If Carpenter only gives the Cards the ~80 innings many expected and Jo-El is the same guy he is in 2008, this team is, well, the Brewers. Minus the douchebaggery. I hope.

5) Trader Mo

what it was -- After spending his first two offseasons as the helm of the Cardinals trying to clean out the junk from the end of Walt Jocketty's tenure here, Mozeliak had essentially gained himself two reputations. Among those of us who follow baseball very closely and are interested in breaking things down from multiple angles, Mr. Mo was seen as a Hippocratic sort of General Manager, i.e. first, do no harm. He wasn't really doing a lot of good, no, but then again, he also wasn't locking the Cardinals into crippling deals and going all March to the Sea on the farm system, so we were relatively pleased. To the casual fan, though, or even the serious fan less interested in the long-term view, who just wanted to see a winning team, Mozeliak was a do-nothing puppet, the man charged by Bill DeWallet to sit on his hands and save money so they could sell off the team in a couple years. Put simply, they weren't overly fond of Mr. Mo. What was worse, even those of us who thought he was doing a solid job trying to reset the organisation were beginning to get a little antsy.

Fast forward a bit, and the team the Cardinals take into the postseason in 2009 looks very little like the team which took the field on Opening Day, and even less like the team they ended the season with a year ago. Matt Holliday, of course, is the big acquisition, but manning up and going against the field staff to trade Chris Duncan for Julio Lugo may actually be the best move Mozeliak made all year. Bringing in John Smoltz was just gravy. There are, of course, some dark spots, as Mark DeRosa's production likely could have been replicated by an internal candidate, Khalil Greene has had a truly lost season, and in almost all of his trades Mozeliak has seemingly overpaid somewhat.

why it was important -- Simply put, the Cardinals were good enough to win the division or the wild card as constructed at the beginning of the season, but just barely. If everything went right, they were probably an 86-88 win team. If they did squeak into the playoffs, you would have to have expected an early bouncing.

Now, though, the Cardinals could very well be seen as the favourites to win the National League pennant. Personally, I'm still terrified of the Phillies,but not because I think Philadelphia is actually a better baseball team. They just seem to have the Cards' number the past couple years. Regardless, it would surprise no one now to see the Cardinals facing off with whatever AL team makes it through to the World Series at the end of October, and I don't think you can say that before Mozeliak made the improvements to the roster.

Additionally, while I'm not ordinarily a big believer in clubhouse chemistry and other such things, I do think the fact the organisation was obviously trying to obtain help for this team had a positive effect on their play. How many extra wins does that translate to? I have no idea, and wouldn't even hazard a guess. But beyond just how much better the new acquisitions made the team, the players themselves were very appreciative of the improvements made. And yes, winning builds chemistry better than chemistry builds winnings, but it isn't fair to simply dismiss the boost the players got when they saw the cavalry coming over the hill.

It's been a wonderful season, and I'm hoping we have something to celebrate tonight. And yes, I am in full-on jinx mode right now, but I don't care. I'm so excited, and I find myself unable to hide it. Or something like that.

The Baron' Playlist for the 23rd of September, 2009

"Forever Young" -- Alphaville

"The Universal" -- Blur

"Train Song" -- Vashti Bunyan

"All Summer Long" -- The Beach Boys

Pitching to Contract

DanUpBaby — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols does whatever he wants as Washington Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman can't handle the throw from pitcher Garrett Mock in the sixth inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009, in St. Louis. Pujols advanced to third because he wanted to. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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It hasn't come up, because his ERA is still rapidly approaching one, but the motion to rename the black part of home plate the Ryan Franklin Zone has begun to run out of steam—since the all-star break he's struck out seven and walked seven in eighteen innings, and in August (where he's not allowed a run in eleven innings) those numbers are four and six. His BB/9 for the season, 2.3, is coming up on twice as high as it was in his first season with the Cardinals. His BABiP is .211.

I bring this up just to say that I don't have a major problem with the Ryan Franklin extension—he's been great this year, and an additional $4 million in 2011 isn't going to make or break this team. But it just seems so inessential—he's already signed past this stereotypical Contract Year, and despite his wavering command his value is never going to be higher than it is right now—that I'm not sure of the benefit, except to boost the morale of a guy who should really be having the time of his baseball life anyway.

I'm not going to get mad about it. Of all the guys in the bullpen to be mad about—well, he doesn't register.

Meanwhile, in The Offseason: Dave Duncan won't come back, unless he does. There's a lot to take out of this story, because there's a lot of divergent story hung on one spindly little clothesline—Dave Duncan's future in St. Louis. Let's try this with bullet points.

1. Dave Duncan is not happy about Chris Duncan. This should and will surprise nobody; he wasn't happy when it happened, and he's probably less happy now that Chris is unemployed going into the end of the minor league season. Strauss treats this thread as the lead item, and it might be the best symbol of the disconnect that's grown between the dugout and the front office, but it seems almost secondary to the question of Duncan's continued employment with the Cardinals; it's symptomatic of something that's not the main complaint.

It's clear that neither Older Duncan nor La Russa feel that Younger Duncan was treated with the respect due him on the way out (or while he played), although Duncan's contention that he doesn't "know of any player in this town who went through what he experienced" makes this Ray Lankford fan do a brief double take. But even as Duncan maintains that his decision will be personal and not professional, he does so based on an event that sprang from his new, subordinate professional role—bullet point two:

2. Dave Duncan is not happy about the Faberge Egg Syndicate. This will come as a shock to those who associate the Clay Mortensens and Lance Lynns of the Cardinals' recent drafts with Duncan's pitch-to-no-strikeouts philosophy, but apparently Duncan is no longer a major force in the team's organizational pitching philosophy. Pull quote:

Since Mozeliak's hiring, player development has become more autonomous under vice president of scouting and player development Jeff Luhnow. A number of Duncan's confidantes, including former minor-league pitching coordinator Mark Riggins, have resigned or been removed. Duncan now isn't consulted on either potential player acquisitions or organization instruction. Communication between the two sides is scattershot, at best.

"It's changed the last three years," Duncan said. "We have our way of doing things up here, and they do things their way in the minor leagues. We're not involved. That's the way it is."

As the proud owner of an Anthony Reyes jersey I can't say I'm crushed by this idea, but not consulting Duncan at all on player acquisition—particularly in mid-season—seems like a needlessly acrimonious, inefficient way of doing things.As pitching coaches go, Duncan is more a Jocketty than a Mozeliak; his "thing", the reason he's here, is taking a certain kind of acquisition, a Woody Williams or a Ryan Franklin, and turning them into momentarily superb pitchers.

He shouldn't have veto power, but employing a pitching coach with his own philosophy is an implicit concession, to some degree, to his philosophy. From the new front office's reluctance to do that we can infer something else—if he's not being pushed out, they won't be that concerned if he thinks he is.

His use of "we"—that could be La Russa and Duncan or Duncan and his protege, Marty Mason—is interesting because of the next point in the article:

3. Duncan and La Russa aren't a package deal. It's La Russa who says this, not Duncan, which makes me think that La Russa's return in 2010 is a little more certain than we previously thought:

Duncan intends to coach next season, whether in St. Louis or elsewhere. Any perception that he and La Russa are intrinsically linked is incomplete.

"I've told him before that our personal relationship never stands in the way of the professional," La Russa said. "Nothing has changed, and nothing will change about that."

Likewise, La Russa believes a pull exists due to those returning next season from the current pitching staff. He dismisses any suggestion that his longtime ally has reached an indelible decision.

"I know when it comes down to making a decision, Dave has tremendous personal and professional interest invested in the guys here and the guys here next year," La Russa said. "He values that deeply."

Later on in the article La Russa says, while discussing the new organizational pitching philosophy, that some of the new ideas are different from what Dave—no "we" involved—believes. I'd be interested to see who gets custody of Marty Mason if Duncan leaves but La Russa stays. Mason's the official team shadowy figure; once every year or so people who like to think they have inside information claim that he's the real mastermind behind the Duncan Pitching Philosophy, and even the less conspiratorially inclined are aware that he seems like Duncan's natural successor. But if Duncan leaves, instead of retiring, he might go with him—given the organization's reluctance to commit (at least to the degree Duncan wants) to their philosophy, that might be the best thing for all concerned.

What this article confirms, more than anything else, is 4. The lines of communication are down. Wainwright had a great Dave Duncan game yesterday; he got a ton of groundballs, and he was relentless about putting his fastball in the bottom third of the strike zone. Look at this PitchF/X chart:

The last few batters he faced before he ran out of gas, all at once, seemed like a perfect explication of the Dave Duncan philosophy—he avoided going up in the zone entirely, he stuck to the corners at the middle of the plate, but most of all he concerned himself with firing fastballs into that bottom third.

But Wainwright is a (somewhat rare) example of how well things worked when a modicum of flexibility was shown on both sides. He's thrown a curveball as his best pitch ever since he was a Braves farmhand; it's not a prototypical Duncan pitch, but he's able to combine it with that fastball—the vast majority of which at least register, based on movement, as two-seamers—to get strikeouts and groundballs, and to avoid big innings when his fastball command falters. He and Reyes came up through the system at the same time—in hindsight Reyes's injury problems may have been inevitable, but in one case a player's strengths were supplemented; in another they were sublimated.

It's a shame that this kind of cooperation seems increasingly unlikely to happen in the future. As both sides move toward a split there's no room, between the Duncan faction and the Luhnow faction, to work together; maybe it couldn't have happened, but it might have been worth a try.

Red Sox release outfielder Chris Duncan

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:00:39 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

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The Red Sox have released outfielder Chris Duncan, less than a month after they acquired the outfielder in exchange for Julio Lugo.

The Red Sox released the outfielder, who hit just .188 with a .255 OBP in 92 plate appearances for Pawtucket, after less than a month with the team, according to the Providence Journal. Duncan was acquired from the Cardinals in a deal that sent shortstop Julio Lugo to St. Louis.

Duncan really did not have a place on the Red Sox, and he isn't a solid enough situational hitter to make the bench. In 79 career pinch hitting at-bats, Duncan is a .241 hitter with 6 home runs and 27 strike outs. He'll likely have to sign a minor league deal to work his way back to a major-league roster.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 15:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

New Mariner Bill Hall congratulates teammate Kenji Johjima on hitting a home run last night.

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Some things to read while writing a scouting report.

All told, it was a pretty boring off day, so the biggest news might be Bill Hall's comments upon joining the Mariners this week. Hall said he tried too hard to live up to his big contract. He gave this quote to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, and it's halfway between laughable and sad:

"I can still hit righthanders," Hall said with a laugh. "I can hit anybody. It's one of those things where, if you say something so long, you might even start believing it yourself."

Since the start of the 2007 season, Hall has faced a righty 683 times and hit .206/.271/.353. If he doesn't recognize a problem there, how is he ever going to figure it out?

Meanwhile, the picture in this Miller Park Drunk post raises what might be the greatest unanswered question regarding Hall: How does a guy who constantly has a giant wad of chew in his mouth keep his teeth that white?

Now that we know Bill Hall will never reach the 200 mark as a Brewer, this streak may live on for a long time: Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times notes that it's been 18 years since a Brewer had 200 hits, with Paul Molitor being the last to get there in 1991. Since then, 28 other teams have had at least one hitter do it. Ryan Braun enters play today with 145, so he'd need to play every day the rest of the way and hit roughly .327 to get the 55 hits he needs to get there. Braun, Fielder (134) and Mike Cameron (102) are the only Brewers with 100 hits on the season.

Of course, if Felipe Lopez (hitting .333/.398/.459 as a Brewer) was able to stretch his performance out over a full season, he'd easily reach 200. Jorge Says No! has a profile of Lopez, who can become a free agent after the season, and thinks he'll get a four year deal worth around $30 million from someone.

It's possible Prince Fielder could get there someday too. He credits improved patience at the plate for the impressive season he's putting together.

How ugly have things gotten for the Brewers? Casa de Machado threw in the towel on the 2009 season yesterday...on an off day.

And, as it turns out, getting Jeff Suppan back might not make things any better. Suppan was lit up again in AAA last night, allowing five earned runs on eight hits in just 3.2 innings. If he can make it through five innings in his big league return without pitching the Brewers out of the game, I'll be shocked.

The Brewers' second half collapse has turned up the heat on Doug Melvin, with a small but vocal percentage of fans calling for his head. If things stay this ugly, he might decide to look for a new opportunity, and Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun wants him to be the next President of the Blue Jays.

Adam McCalvy spent the day off on the farm, and has a great story on Mike Jones and Mark Rogers, as the two former highly touted prospects continue their rebound from injuries that have devastated their early careers.

On power rankings and playoff odds:

Yahoo moved the Brewers down a spot to 20th in their rankings.
Even though they were off yesterday, MLB Playoff Odds downgraded the Brewers to a .4% shot at making the playoffs.

Around baseball:

Mets: Designated Livan Hernandez for assignment.
Orioles: Claimed pitcher Chris Lambert off waivers from the Tigers.
Padres: Traded reliever Scott Patterson to the A's for cash, and signed reliever Rocky Cherry to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Released outfielder Chris Duncan.

With the Reds out of the playoff hunt for 2009, the youth movement has come on in full force: At one point last night, the eight Reds position players on the field combined to make $3.235 million, just $35,000 above the minimum possible. They beat the Giants 2-1.

One by one, every team in baseball is getting an opportunity to learn why the others have been so happy to be rid of Gary Sheffield. Sheffield requested a contract extension from the Mets yesterday, and when they declined to offer one he asked to be taken out of the lineup for last night's game. Adam Rubin thinks the Mets should bench Sheffield until September 1, then release him when it's too late for him to make a postseason roster.

I doubt there's any other long-standing matchup in baseball that's this close: The Dodgers beat the Cubs last night, and now lead them 1015-1014 in their all-time series. (h/t True Blue LA)

The Dodgers found a way to win last night without Claudio Vargas, but you can add Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness to the list of Dodger fans who wish they hadn't traded him for Vinny Rottino.

Add Major League Baseball to the list of sports working to take concussions more seriously. Brian Costa of the Newark Star-Ledger has a great read on some of the advancements in treatment of concussions, and the steps being taken to protect players who have had one.

Without the internet, we probably never would have known: Plunk Everyone says Brendan Ryan's grand slam last night was the only slam in 2009 hit with two men on base who reached via HBP.

On this day in 1982, Rollie Fingers pitched the last two innings of the Brewers' 3-2 win over the Mariners, becoming the first pitcher ever to record 300 saves. If Trevor Hoffman sticks around for one more season, the Brewers could also have the first pitcher to reach 600.

Happy birthday today to Craig Counsell, who turns 39, Lou Collier, who played in 138 games for the Brewers between 1999 and 2001 and turns 36, and John Henry Johnson, who appeared in 29 games as a Brewer in 1986 and 1987 and turns 53.

Drink up.

Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/21/09

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 04:01:38 -0000

Not a lot of stuff today - blame the back to school schedule. Great win yesterday to sweep the series and head into the long homestand on a big hotstreak. The links start with the new father who made it back in time to help finish off the Jays - this, after making it back to Boston in time to witness the birth of his first born, taking drastic measures to do so.

"Dude, I will give you $100 if you get me to Mass. General as fast as possible …" - BostonHerald.com

And, some news about The Large Father as well:

@Amalie Benjamin

Ortiz has a big wrap around the right side of his hip. Just went through treatment. Said he's been a little sore for a bit. #redsox

Please be something to do with running the bases too much.

Several links from The Book's blog, some minors and draft news, and an interesting proposition for a new bullpen piece, all after the jump.

So, that Smoltz thing is getting really confusing. Most say he's done, while some say he still has something left in the tank. And then there's this...

Sample size and granularity of data - Inside The Book
MGL explains why we can't draw too much info from Smoltz's performances so far. Same link that VEP shared in yesterday's Laundry. I'd wager that Pitch F/X data, simply because of the large number of pitches thrown, could be used somewhat effectively after 40 IP - then again, I'm young and generally unwise, so maybe one of the better informed people could tell us?

Speaking of players who we're paying to play for the Cards...

If you have been disappointed in a player for a long time, and legitimately so… - Inside The Book

like Frenchy, is a recent uptick in performance cause for optimism?

No.

Also applies to a recent string of shortstops we've seen, namely the aforementioned Lugo, as well as Green and Gonzo.

Another segue - some of us have been trying to explain that Green > Gonzo defensively, among other things, so maybe this could help:

Bellmore's Lichtman shows his baseball knowledge through UZR - Newsday
Yay, sabermetrics in mainstream media. Same defense of UZR we've seen before. And, since the reporter's well known, it's got to be something worth looking into, right?

Oh, well, maybe we'll have a superstar shortstop coming up through the minors soon. But, will we have overpaid to draft him?

Spending Vs. Slots - BaseballAmerica.com

How much money each team spent in the first 10 rounds of the 2009 draft, and how it compares to their estimated slot allowance from the commissioner’s office:

More minors news: Lugo has officially been crap for us.

Chris Duncan, player acquired for Julio Lugo, is released - Projo Sox Blog

No transition for this, really. Umm... it's a good discussion point.

Should Sox import Billy Wagner? - Fire Brand of the American League

Yes. Absolutely, unequivocally yes.

I've seen reports of Wagner losing velocity, which would make his secondary pitches less effective. So, maybe as a reclamation project? He'd have to get a lot of appearances in the minors quickly before we have to set the playoff rosters. Not enough time, in my opinion.

Hoyer staying put and other notes - BostonHerald.com

So, besides the headline, there's this:

Varitek reiterated that he could play tonight if absolutely needed, but said he and the team were taking the cautious approach. Varitek’s still not sure if he’ll have an MRI when he returns to Boston.

"I don’t know what we have to do to find out, but we’re not going to do it in Canada," Varitek said. "I’m not going to leave the team. We’ll figure out something this homestand as far as what we’re going to do. And if it gets better, we’ll do it later."

And, finally:

BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, August 18th, 2009 - Beyond the Box Score

*sigh* Defense = costing us important runs. Anyway, find stories, post links, discuss.

Brave New Pawtucket

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Huzzah! Finally, an SBN-hosted picture I can use! (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

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About 50 days ago, I wrote a piece on upcoming roster changes for the Pawtucket Red Sox that would be necessitated by a surge of players from below (see: The Pawtucket Roster Crunch). Things have turned out slightly differently. Promotion from within has certainly occurred. Aaron Bates had already moved up by then. Mark Wagner has since, and Junichi Tazawa recently joined the ranks in McCoy Stadium. Victor Martinez' acquisition will likely force Kottaras back down also (he should clear waivers) once the dust has settled. I expect the denizens of this site are already plenty familiar with those names, though, so let's focus elsewhere.

Equal pressure has come from outside the organization. By trading Julio Lugo and Mark Kotsay, the Red Sox acquired Chris Duncan and Brian Anderson. These acquisitions have of course required counter moves. Joining the ranks of the departed are outfielders Freddy Guzman, Jonathan Van Every (who left earlier due to a season ending injury, signing with Pittsburgh), and Paul McAnulty, as well as catcher Carlos Maldonado.

Two once highly-touted prospects whose careers had fizzled over the last few years, Duncan and Anderson now provide organizational depth at the AAA level with hopes of maybe reigniting the spark that a few years back had promised long successful MLB careers.

Major League success has always eluded Brian Anderson. Despite once being named a top-30 prospect in all of Baseball, Anderson has never batted well for average, has only once managed an OBP over .300 (this season at .322), and has only once slugged over .400 (last year and .436). His career average line in 782 professional at bats is an ugly .225/.288/.364. So far, in his short AAA stint, Anderson has been average. He's homered twice in 25 at bats, and has 7 hits for a .280 average. He's only walked once, however, leaving his OBP at a lowly .308, and that looks particularly ugly next to the 6 strikeouts. Earlier this year, with AAA Charlotte, he posted similar average and on base numbers, just without any power to back it up. It would be more than a little bit wishful to expect Anderson to turn it around at this point and live up to his 1^st round pick status, or anything close to it.

Chris Duncan, on the other hand, has experienced quite a bit of success in the majors. In his first season in the majors in 2006, Duncan was on fire, hitting 22 home runs in only 280 at bats en route to a line of .293/.363/.589. He followed this up with a solid, if unimpressive in comparison 2007, where he nearly matched his home run numbers, but in an extra 100 at bats. His high strikeout rate caught up with him somewhat, lowering his average to .259, but where he nearly doubled his strikeouts, he also nearly doubled his walks, keeping his OBP fairly consistent at .354. Duncan has been hampered by injuries in the last few years, though, starting with a hernia in late 2007, then a herniated disk in his neck in July of 2008. In recovering this year, Duncan posted a career low OPS of .687 in 260 career at bats. Duncan typically struggles tremendously against lefties, but has hit righties very well over the course of his career.

For the Red Sox right now, Brian Anderson is the one most likely to contribute, and could actually see time with the team reasonably soon. While Josh Reddick is more than making use of his time in the majors, the Sox are certain to want to make sure he gets ample playing time, so if the regular cadre of outfielders ends up healthy anytime soon, he could quickly be recalled to AA—or pro/demoted to AAA—to assure him a standard 4 at bats a game. In such a situation, the Sox would likely want to have a 5^th outfielder on the bench, and Brian Anderson can provide a solid glove at all three positions. Duncan lacks the range the Red Sox would be looking for, and so for now will most likely have to make the best with his opportunity in Pawtucket. If he can get himself healthy, his ceiling could be fairly high though, if unlikely to be reached. If he can also work out his problems with lefties to a point where he's at least respectable against them, Duncan has a slim chance of being a future contributor to the team. If not, he's more likely to be traded elsewhere to act in a platoon role. Still, at the moment he has quite a bit more long-term potential than Brian Anderson.

A Quick Peek At The Cards

Eric Stephen — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Stan "The Man" Musial.

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The Dodgers head to St. Louis for a four game series beginning tonight, in a place that has been a house of horrors for the Dodgers the last couple of years. The Dodgers have dropped 14 of their last 17 games at differing versions of Busch Stadium.

Analyzing the Cardinals up to this point is instructive to a point, but their recent acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday changes things quite a bit. The middle of the Cards' lineup now looks as formidable as any team in the National League:

Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
1B	Pujols	.325	.445	.693	1.138	.458
LF	Holliday	.297	.336	.471	.857	.378
RF	Ludwick	.275	.339	.500	.839	.366

Of course, having Albert Pujols makes any lineup formidable, but the team certainly looks much improved. Add in recent acquisitions Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo, and the offense looks even better.

The Cardinals pitching staff is led by brilliant yet fragile ace Chris Carpenter, who is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA so far in July. Carpenter is led at the top by Adam Wainwright, who is quietly putting together an outstanding season (11-6, 3.55), and a resurgent Joel Pineiro, who has a 2.95 ERA built on shockingly low amounts of walks, homers, and strikeouts. The Cardinals starting staff lead the National League in inning per start, at 6.2.

The bullpen is led by closer Ryan Franklin, who has been outstanding this season (2.97 FIP, 22 saves), with major contributions from lefties Trever Miller (3.25 FIP) and Dennys Reyes (3.88 FIP), and Kyle McClellan (4.15 FIP).

The Cardinals are coming off a 2-5 road trip, but Monday's game marks the first game at home for new acquisitions Holliday and Lugo, so expect a raucous crowd.

2009 Cardinals
Record	53-48, 2nd NL Central, ½ GB
Pythag Record	53-48 (5th in NL)
Runs Scored	4.40/gm (8th in NL)
wOBA	.322 (10th in NL)
Runs Allowed	4.20/gm (6th in NL)
FIP	4.00 (5th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency	.697 (8th in NL)

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Viva El Birdos is the SB Nation Cardinals blog. Here are some recent posts:

ChuckB takes a look at the Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan trade
A look at the potential of Troy Glaus playing the outfield (unlikely now with the Holliday acquisition)

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Pitching Probables

Monday: Randy Wolf (5-4, 4.24) vs. Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.70 FIP), 4:05pm

Tuesday: Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.50 FIP) vs. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.61 FIP), 5:15pm

Wednesday: Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 3.38 FIP) vs. Joel Pineiro (9-9, 2.99 FIP), 5:15pm

Thursday: Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.55 FIP) vs. Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.51 FIP), 5:15pm