SB Nation - Jim Edmonds

Brendan Donnelley: Bullpen Help?

Al — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:28:26 -0000

Could the Cubs find some veteran bullpen help in Brendan Donnelly?

This MLB.com article mainly talks about how the market for veteran free agents (who aren't in the top rank) has dried up due to teams' budget considerations.

But the article also talks about 38-year-old reliever Brendan Donnelly, who was a key part of the 2002 Angels World Championship team, but declined after that and suffered injuries that led him to have Tommy John surgery before the 2008 season. He pitched briefly (and poorly) for the Indians in 2008, and then threw quite well for the Marlins in the second half of last year (30 games, 25.1 IP, 9 BB, 25 K, 1 HR allowed, 1.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 0.6 WAR).

Donnelly is not unfamiliar to the Cubs or Jim Hendry -- he pitched a year in the Cubs' farm system as a kid in 1993 and later, as farm director, Hendry reacquired Donnelly in 2000, when he threw half a season for Iowa, and not very well. But two years later he was in the World Series.

According to the article, Donnelly wants a major league contract. I'm not sure I would give him that -- and I don't think anyone else will, either. On a minor league deal with a spring training invite? Why not?

The article also has this interesting info on Jim Edmonds:

Paul Cohen, the agent for Edmonds, sat by in disbelief when his client -- who had hit 382 home runs, compiled a career .905 on-base-plus-slugging percentage, won eight Gold Gloves and made four All-Star teams in a fantastic 16-year career -- couldn't get a big league offer.

"And this was after he had hit 20 homers [for San Diego and Chicago] in the last four months of the previous season," Cohen said.

Edmonds didn't want to take a Minor League deal and ended up walking away from the game, presumably for good, although Cohen says Edmonds, "is in the best shape he's been in in 10 years," so never say never.

But for the veterans who might be forced to quit early before the 2010 season, it would serve them well to take a view similar to that of Edmonds when they exit the ballpark for that final time.

"Look, Jim made a lot of money in the game, and when it was his time to step away from the game, he moved on," Cohen said.

"There are no regrets. He's got a great life now."

Sure -- but as for Donnelly, if he wants to play in 2010 and all that's out there is a minor league offer with a spring training invite, I'd take it. And if I were the Cubs, I think I'd give it.

Torii Hunter Gold Glove #9

Rev Halofan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:42:05 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

G O L D (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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The Angels added some hardware Tuesday with Centerfielder Torii Hunter collecting his 9th career gold glove and his 2nd as an Angel in as many seasons with the club.

Suffice to say that shortstop Erick Aybar was absolutely robbed in the awarding of the prize to Derek Jeter. Angels 3B Chone Figgins at least lost out to Evan Longoria, a competent fielder.

The official announcement is at MLB.COM's website.

Angels Franchise Gold Glove Winners (Official Team Site Listings has not been updated since 2004)

Torii Hunter	OF	2009

Torii Hunter	OF	2008

Orlando Cabrera	SS	2007

Darin Erstad	1B	2004

Bengie Molina	C	2003

Darin Erstad	OF	2002

Bengie Molina	C	2002

Darin Erstad	OF	2000

Jim Edmonds	OF	1998

Jim Edmonds	OF	1997

J.T. Snow	1B	1996

J.T. Snow	1B	1995

Mark Langston	P	1995

Mark Langston	P	1994

Mark Langston	P	1993

Mark Langston	P	1992

Mark Langston	P	1991

Devon White	OF	1989

Devon White	OF	1988

Bob Boone	C	1988

Bob Boone	C	1987

Bob Boone	C	1986

Gary Pettis	OF	1986

Gary Pettis	OF	1985

Bob Boone	C	1982

Rick Milller	OF	1978

Ken Berry	OF	1972

Jim Spencer	1B	1970

Bobby Knoop	2B	1968

Bobby Knoop	2B	1967

Jim Fregosi	ss	1966

Bobby Knoop	2B	1966

Vic Power	1B	1964

Hall of Fame WAR Path: Center Field - Graph of the Day

Justin Bopp — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:00:30 -0000

Click to Enlarge.

Today, a graph by numbers. (continued)

*UPDATED*

#. Name (Lifetime WAR) - Years through 2008

1. Kenny Lofton (67.2) - 17 - Makes an excellent case for himself, following the path of an HoFer to the end.

2. Jim Edmonds (67.7) - 16 - This chart says he should be in the HoF. Do you buy it?

3. Andruw Jones (57.8) - 13 - A nice, non-HoF arc.

4. Carlos Beltran (50.8) - 11 - If he played in KC for his entire career, he...no. I will not finish that thought.

5. Mike Cameron (42.6) - 14 - I really just wanted to add green to this chart. It offsets the other colors and pleases me. Seriously though, Cameron's career has been long and productive. But not HoF-worthy (according to this)

Make your case below.

Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Sky Kalkman | Data Source: BaseballProjection.com

Special thanks to Jeff Zimmerman and TangoTiger for providing the HoF Zone data.

Updated Chart before the jump. Here's the original, pre-suggestions:

At Least They Can't Clinch This Weekend: Cubs vs. Cardinals, Friday 9/18, 7:15 CT

Al — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

That about sums up the season, doesn't it?

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The Cardinals' magic number to clinch the NL Central is 8. (It's the lowest of any of the magic numbers, division or wild card, right now.) Even if they sweep the Cubs, they won't get to celebrate this weekend. Small consolation, I know.

If the Cubs can rise to the occasion and sweep the Cardinals, it may not make any difference in the final standings, but it's always nice to beat your biggest rival, and that would also even up the season series. So there's definitely something to shoot for in a series that, several months ago, looked to mean a lot more than it does right now.

It's been suggested that So Taguchi wouldn't get a good reception returning to St. Louis. I beg to differ. When Jim Edmonds made his first appearance in St. Louis last year in a Cub uniform, he got a standing ovation. Taguchi, who was a good contributor as a bench player to two Cardinals World Series teams (and another WS winner last year in Philadelphia), would probably get warmly welcomed. He's not part of the Cubs' future, obviously, but maybe he can give the slumping Kosuke Fukudome a break by playing one of these games in CF.

Here's a different take on Milton Bradley -- this one from Athletics Nation, where they discuss the deal made by the A's after the 2005 season, where they sent Andre Ethier to the Dodgers for Bradley. It's food for thought. I'd like to see the Cubs deal Bradley and maybe, just maybe, if their scouting is good enough, they can steal someone like Ethier from another team. Pipedream? Maybe. But worth discussing.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	John Smoltz Cardinals

12-8	W-L	3-6
3.05	ERA	6.53
137	SO	61
34	BB	10
22	HR	10
vs. StL	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	12-8	25	25	0	0	0	0	162.1	141	60	55	22	34	137	3.05	1.08

Note: Smoltz's stats below are with the Cardinals only. See the pitcher box above for his full-season stats.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - John Smoltz	1-1	4	4	0	0	0	0	22.0	19	8	8	2	1	28	3.27	.91

It's really impossible to tell what John Smoltz will do against the Cubs tonight. He has started four times for St. Louis -- two really good ones and two average starts. He is 15-5 in 39 career appearances (29 starts) vs. the Cubs, but most of that was in his prime with the Braves. His last two starts for Atlanta vs. the Cubs were in 2006, and he got pounded twice by that really bad Cubs team. Aramis Ramirez is 4-for-12 with a pair of homers off Smoltz and Derrek Lee has also homered off him. Incidentally, that's not a typo above -- he really does have only one walk for St. Louis in 22 innings.

Ted Lilly is 1-1, 2.40 vs. the Cardinals this year, losing on May 19 despite pitching well, in that series where the Cubs refused to score, and holding them to one run and four hits on July 11 in a 5-2 Cubs win. Current Cardinals are hitting .200 (44-for-220) off Ted. Lifetime he's 7-3, 2.89 in 13 starts vs. St. Louis.

Today's game is cable-only, on CSN Chicago and FSN Midwest. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

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Once again, just two overflow threads today -- 8:15 pm and 9:30 pm CDT. If there's a need for another one, please post as a FanShot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

A Numerologist's Dream -- 09/09/09: Cubs vs. Pirates Preview, Wednesday 9/9, 11:35 CT

Al — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:00:23 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Hey, Z. Remember this game against the Pirates? Try to stay calmer today.

View full size photo »

PITTSBURGH -- If you are into such things, here are the Cubs' results for the four "numerologist dates" in this decade (they didn't play on 04/04/04):

08/08/08: Defeated Cardinals at Wrigley Field 3-2. Jim Edmonds hit two homers.

07/07/07: Defeated Pirates at Pittsburgh 7-1. Ted Lilly threw 7.1 strong innings.

06/06/06: Lost to Astros 7-1 at Houston. Nuff said, except that the 2006 team was horrible and probably would have lost no matter what the date was.

05/05/05: Lost to Brewers 6-5 at Milwaukee. Two words describe this game: LaTroy Hawkins.

Lou held a team meeting last night. Which raises two questions: 1) Why didn't this happen two months ago? 2) Why haven't the players called a meeting before now? (Answer to the latter question may be: "Because there aren't any player-leaders on this team.")

[Lou] talked about pride -- "personal and team pride," he said.

"I told them it's been a struggle this year," he added, "but we've still got [25] games to go, and we've got to play as well as we can and as hard as we can until the end of the season, and win as many games as we can."

Well, Lou, that's a great message. Did someone just wake you up? Where was this attitude when the Cubs were going through their 11-17 month of August?

And more reminders that things can always be worse: Yahoo's Gordon Edes lists 17 things about the Pirates over their 17 consecutive losing seasons. My favorite (and you should take note of this one if you think the Cubs have had a lot of losing seasons in your lifetime):

Number of seasons in which a Pirates team did not spend a single day over .500 or in first place: 5. An additional six teams were never more than three games over .500 an entire season.

Site note: I am leaving right after today's game to drive back to Chicago. I am once again going to try to find wifi on the road to post a recap, but if not, today's game recap may be delayed until Thursday morning.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Kevin Hart Pirates

7-6	W-L	4-5
3.80	ERA	4.67
115	SO	37
63	BB	30
10	HR	9
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	7-6	30	23	0	0	0	0	137.1	131	65	58	10	63	115	3.80	1.41

Note: stats below are for Hart with the Pirates only. See the pitcher box for his full-season stats.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kevin Hart	1-4	6	6	0	0	0	0	34.0	47	27	24	6	12	24	6.35	1.74

When last we saw Kevin Hart, he was pitching six good innings for the Cubs against the Astros on July 30 at Wrigley Field, after which he was traded to the Pirates. Since then he's been... not so good. He's piled up innings for Pittsburgh, but given up a lot of hits, walks and homers. This will be his first appearance against his old team; let's light him up.

The only time Z has faced the Pirates this year so far was memorable, and not for his pitching; it was on May 27 at Wrigley Field. That was the day he melted down after a close play at the plate and wound up, among other things, flinging a baseball 300 feet into left field. Needless to say, he was ejected. (The Cubs came back and won the game anyway.) The current Pirate who hits him best is Ramon Vazquez (5-for-12); the only current Pirate to have homered off Z is Brandon Moss.

Cable-only for TV today, and Chicago-only (CSN, no Pittsburgh TV). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

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Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

I'm going to stick to two overflow threads again today; they will post at 12:45 and 2 pm CDT. If things get too busy, please post a FanShot overflow; if I see there's a lot of activity the next couple of days, I may go back to three.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Should The Cubs Sign John Smoltz?

Al — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 14:54:21 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

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When John Smoltz was pounded by the Yankees on August 6 at Yankee Stadium, and subsequently designated for assignment by the Red Sox, some here wondered whether it might be a good idea for the Cubs to take a flyer on him.

On August 6 the Cubs were tied for first place, were two games ahead of the Cardinals in the loss column, had just gotten an outstanding first outing out of Tom Gorzelanny, and things looked pretty good. So I said, "Why bother?"

Since then -- not so much. The Cubs are 3-7 since August 6, the bullpen is in full-time meltdown mode, and Lou Piniella says the Cubs are going to make a change at closer.

So -- why not John Smoltz? His eight American League starts for the Red Sox this year were, overall, pretty bad -- that 8.32 ERA is horrendous. He allowed no homers in the first four starts, then nine in the last four. But the Cubs would not be looking to use Smoltz as a starter -- with Carlos Zambrano coming back next week, they have six capable starters already.

Smoltz has 154 career saves, posted between 2001 and 2004 with the Braves while he was trying to get his elbow back and stretched out so he could return to starting, which he did for four successful years in Atlanta from 2005-2008. As a Cub, he'd be slotted in to close, not start, however. The key stat to look at, then, is to see what Smoltz has done this year the first time he faces a batter in a game. The answer is: .250/.342/.313 in a total of 74 plate appearances by such batters. None of the nine HR allowed by Smoltz were given up the first time he faced a batter in a game.

In his eight starts, he faced the Orioles three times, the Royals, the Rangers, the Yankees, the Athletics, and the Nationals. All of those teams have pretty good offenses. The NL teams remaining on the Cubs' schedule don't, with the exception of the Dodgers and Cardinals. Smoltz is more familiar with the NL than the AL (which makes it a puzzler why he signed with the Red Sox in the first place) and he has been a successful closer.

This would be a Jim Edmonds-type move, signing a player who appears to be, as I put it last year, "D-O-N-E done", for a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum salary -- with about 1/4 of the season remaining, it would be a little over $100,000. That's less than half of one bleacher crowd.

So, I say, using the time-honored BCB phrase, "Get it done, Jim!" Via MLB Trade Rumors, there's a report that the Cardinals are interested in Smoltz to be their fifth starter.

He's more valuable to the Cubs as a closer. Let's do it. Now.

Who ARE These Guys? - Cubs vs. Pirates Preview, Friday 8/14, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Write your own caption.

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A little over a year ago -- on July 24, 2008, just before last year's trading deadline -- the Pittsburgh Pirates began a trading spree that I think is nearly unprecedented in recent baseball history.

Today, August 14, 2009, as the Pirates come to Wrigley Field for a three-game series, know how many players are left from the 25-man roster on 7/24/2008?

Three. Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. (Four, if you count Matt Capps, who was on the DL on 7/24/2008). All the rest are gone. Some of the players they have acquired or promoted are decent players; Andrew McCutchen is a real talent. Lastings Milledge has some talent, if he could ever actually put a full season together. Some of the pitchers have good arms. But basically, it's a Triple-A visiting team coming to Wrigley Field this weekend. The Cubs took two of three in two series earlier this year from the Pirates, one at Wrigley and one at PNC; this time, they both need to sweep, and should sweep. Aramis Ramirez returns today; that should help.

Courtesy of John Lewis' research on a SABR mailing list to which I subscribe, here's where the departed Pirates went:

LF Jason Bay              traded to Red Sox 2008
CF Nate McLouth           traded to Braves 2009
RF Xavier Nady            traded to Yankees 2008
OF Jason Michaels         free agency 2008
1B Adam LaRoche           traded to Red Sox 2009
2B Freddy Sanchez         traded to Giants 2009
3B Jose Bautista          traded to Blue Jays 2008
SS Jack Wilson            traded to Mariners 2009
1B-3B Doug Mientkiewicz   free agency 2008
2B-SS Luis Rivas          free agency 2008
INF Chris Gomez           free agency 2008
C  Raul Chavez            free agency 2008
P John Van Benschoten     free agency 2008
P Franquelis Osoria       free agency 2008
P Damaso Marte            traded to Yankees 2008
P John Grabow             traded to Cubs 2009
P Sean Burnett            traded to Nationals 2009
P Ian Snell               traded to Mariners 2009
P T.J. Beam               on waivers to Blue Jays 2009
P Denny Bautista          to AAA Indianapolis
P Yoslan Herrera          to AA Altoona
P Tyler Yates             on disabled list

Lewis also notes that:

The Pirates' record was 48-54 (.471) on July 24, 2008. Since then, it is 64-103 (.383).

Today's Starting Pitchers


Randy Wells Cubs	vs.	Charlie Morton Pirates

8-5	W-L	2-5
3.01	ERA	3.81
68	SO	33
25	BB	18
9	HR	4
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wells	8-5	17	17	0	0	0	0	107.2	102	39	36	9	25	68	3.01	1.18

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Charlie Morton	2-5	10	10	0	0	0	0	49.2	53	21	21	4	18	33	3.81	1.43

Charlie Morton will be making his second career start against the Cubs. He started a game for the Braves against the Cubs a year and a day ago on August 13, 2008. He didn't make it out of the third inning. The big blow off him was a home run by Jim Edmonds -- remember him? Geovany Soto hit a two-run double off Morton.

Randy Wells started and defeated the Pirates on July 1 in Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have remade their team since then. Three of the starting eight that day aren't on the Pirates any more.

The Cubs are on WGN today -- that's the only TV; there is no Pirates telecast. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

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Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 2:15 pm, 3:15 pm and 4 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Baseball Stadiums And You

Eric Stephen — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:06:54 -0000

Watching the Dodgers at another stadium is fun, especially when they win.

View full size photo »

Yesterday, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts took his first trip to AT&T Park in San Francisco, and what followed from that in the comments was a nice discussion of various ballparks people have attended. It made me do some digging and reminiscing about the stadiums I have been to. What better way is there to spend the off day today than to look back at all the stadiums you have been to? Feel free to give us your ballpark memories in the comments.

Outside of Dodger Stadium, here is my list:

Angels Stadium

I have been here on numerous occasions, but the few that stick out for me are these:

July 18, 1991: This game was one of the reasons I almost never leave early. I was 15, attending the game with both of my older brothers, and thus not exactly in full control of the transportation opportunities. Once Albert Belle broke a 1-1 tie in the top of the ninth off Bryan Harvey, my brothers started to get up and leave. Stunned, and without a ride home if I stayed, I had to leave too. By the time we got to the car, it was 4-1 Indians, which had justified the decision by my brothers...until, that is, the Angels stormed back for four runs off four Indians pitchers (including former and future Old Friends Shawn Hillegas, Jesse Orosco, and Jeff Shaw) to win, 5-4.

August 8, 2000: Sitting one deck up behind home plate, I got to see the tremendous movement on the pitches from Pedro Martinez at his peak, which was a treat. The Angels somehow scratched together two runs to beat Pedro that night.

October 16, 2005: The White Sox won the pennant by taking Game 5 of the ALCS, as Jose Contreras pitched the fourth straight complete game of the series for Chicago. The final out of the series was an unassisted groundout to Old Friend Paul Konerko. The highlight of the game for me was seeing a family friend -- a huge Notre Dame fan -- at the stadium and showing him my USC shirt one day after the Leinart Sneak / Bush Push game.

Petco Park & Qualcomm Stadium

I lived in San Diego for the better part of 14 years, and saw numerous games here. The Dodgers never seem to do well with me in attendance in San Diego, as they are 7-19 lifetime (they did win on July 3 this year though, so I'm on a hot streak). Two games that stood out:

June 11, 1993: The very first game I went to in San Diego. Kevin Gross pitched eight scoreless innings, but the Dodgers -- including rookie Pedro Martinez -- blew a 4-0 lead in the ninth, and the Padres won 5-4.

September 30, 1995: This was the first time I saw the Dodgers clinch anything, as they won 7-2 behind Hideo Nomo to clinch the NL West over the Rockies (who would win the Wild Card). There were quite a few Dodger fans at the park that night.

Coors Field

July 27, 2000: I have only been to one game in Denver, and it was during a family reunion in Colorado. My cousins and I got picked up at the airport and went straight to the stadium. This game was nearly four hours long, yet only nine innings. The Dodgers won 16-11, behind the greatest game of Alex Cora's life. Cora had two home runs, and a double that hit high off the wall.

Chase Field (Bank One Ballpark)

I have been to three games here, only one of which was against the Dodgers.

July 24, 1999: I made the unwise decision to drive to Phoenix from San Diego and back in one day, and was rewarded with Brian Anderson outdueling Darren Dreifort. The D-Backs rode home runs by Steve Finley and Bernard Gilkey to a 3-0 win.

August 22, 2003: The only no-hitter I ever saw, only it wasn't a no-hitter. Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs allowed no hits into the eighth inning, then with two outs future Old Friend Shea Hillenbrand was awarded an infield single even though it was painfully clear from my nosebleed seats that he was out at first base. Zambrano got the next three batters out, so he has a no-hitter in my mind.

AT&T Park

September 30, 2006: I took a detour on my way home from a business conference to see my first two games in San Francisco. The first game was the next-to-last day of the season, and Greg Maddux beat the Giants to clinch a playoff spot for the Dodgers (they would end up as the Wild Card, although at this point that was undetermined). Thanks to Stub Hub, I was sitting in the same row as many of the Dodger family section, including Mia Hamm, Russell Martin's dad, and Carolyn Hughes (who is stunning in person, by the way).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

August 23, 1996: I have been to a total of four games at Camden Yards, and truthfully none of them really stand out as memorable games, but the park is awesome. This game was a 2-0 Angel win, behind home runs from Chili Davis and Jim Edmonds, but I mostly picked this game because I forgot David Wells was once an Oriole.

Network Associates Coliseum

May 12, 2000: This is a late-inning Matt Stairs home run of which I actually have fond memories, and the only reason was that there are few things better than calling the guy who has a closer who just blew a save in your fantasy league -- in this case Kaz Sasaki of the Mariners -- and letting the crowd noise do the talking.

Safeco Field

October 1, 2004: This game was memorable because Ichiro Suzuki broke the single-season record for hits in a season with his 258th hit, in the first inning. Ichiro, who broke George Sisler's xx-year old record, added two more hits in this Friday night game, and went on to collect two more over the season's final weekend to settle the record at 262 hits.

Wrigley Field

June 4, 2003: My only trip to Wrigley was for a night game, but it was still a great experience. There are really only a few lights there, so it has a surreal effect of having the stands dark and basically only the field lit up. Its almost like watching an outdoor play. This game was the day after Sammy Sosa got ejected for having a corked bat, and the Cubs' faithful, including Jesse Jackson, gave Sosa a rousing ovation before his first at-bat. Five future Old Friends started this game: Julio Lugo, Marlon Anderson, and Toby Hall for Tampa Bay; Hee Seop Choi and Paul Bako for Chicago.

That's my list. A total of 10 stadiums (including Dodger Stadium, and counting both San Diego parks as one). What's yours?

C'mon, Rob! Win Shares? On Rob Neyer, Todd Helton, Jeff Kent, Jim Edmonds, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, and the 2000 NL MVP

devil_fingers — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:53:14 -0000

Usual caveat: Rob Neyer is great. Really -- I'm among the many people out there who was first exposed to sabermetrics through his ESPN columns and "Rob and Rany on the Royals." He generally does a good job of keeping up with the latest stuff and getting it across in an easily-digested manner for his readers.

Moreover, MVP races are what they are -- a good idea for an award that often ruined by voters who seemingly don't have the faintest idea of what makes a baseball player valuable.

Still, I was a bit put off by Neyer's recent blog posting responding to a reader's claim that Todd Helton, not Jeff Kent, should have won the 2000 NL MVP (Helton placed seventh). Much of the debate, of course, is about the way Coors Field inflates hitters' numbers. The reader points out that Helton also had great numbers on the road. Let's skip to Neyer's conclusion:

Edmonds just edged Helton for fourth place. Maybe he shouldn't have. I certainly should not have dismissed Helton's road production, which was obviously considerable. But do you really want to argue -- with his road stats, anyway -- that Helton was better than Kent, Bonds, and Piazza? After including defense and baserunning?

Helton finished that season with 29 Win Shares. Kent finished with 37. The right man won the award.

Win Shares? Look, I'm not here to rip on Win Shares. Like Range Factor, VORP, skinny ties, and a geocentric cosmology, Win Shares had its time and place. But shouldn't a worldly guy like Rob Neyer (who, let's be honest, goes out of his way to flaunt his "progressiveness" every chance he gets) be a bit more circumspect when it comes to stuff like this? Who really should have won the 2000 NL MVP? Let's check in with Rally...

I'm not going to get into the ins-and-outs of Win Shares. Heck, I barely understand it -- and that's most of the problem. I think it's a great idea give the time in and purpose for which was conceived. If you want good criticisms of Win Shares, click here. But again, this isn't about Win Shares, it's about the 2000 NL MVP: How should we determine who "really" deserved it? Neyer's discussion (spurred by this reader's point that Helton wasn't just a Coors creation) focuses on the road stats of give players who finished high in that years MVP balloting, and so Neyer gives us this chart of road performances:

Player	Pos.	BA/OBP/SLG	Runs/RBI
Jeff Kent	2B	.333/.429/.624	61/65
Barry Bonds	LF	.291/.431/.633	65/48
Mike Piazza	C	.377/.459/.701	49/60
Jim Edmonds	CF	.295/.400/.556	66/51
Todd Helton	1B	.353/.441/.633	46/59

Again, seriously? We're going to go by by three-slashes (great for description, not so much for evaluation), runs scored and RBI? This is even worse than Win Shares. If only there was some "linear" fashion of "weighing" the relative offensive contributions of players that could include "adjustments" for "parks." I think we'd call it "location-sensitive relative massification" or something...

Granted, Neyer is writing for an audience with varyhing levels of knowledge of more recent (I hate the phrase "advanced metrics") stats and measures of player evaluation, so I understand this approach. But why bring up Win Shares? Outside of all the other objective criticisms, it's just so unnecessarily complicated.

So what would be a good way to decide which player was most valuable? What measure would account not just for offensive and defensive production, but also for position, and also the reality that runs at Coors are less valuable than they are at other parks... hmm... what could it be?

If you've been a reader here before, you know that the answer is Wins Above Replacement. It's been around in different forms for a while now. There are currenlty very good, freely accessible versions available at both FanGraphs (for 2002-2008, the seasons for which Ultimate Zone Rating is available using data from Baseball Info Solutions) and for all of baseball history at Rally's (AKA Sean "CHONE" Smith) incredible WAR database at Baseball Projection. You can read about the details behind the numbers here. Suffice it to say that Rally's database provides all the information we need: numbers for hitting (adjusting both for park and team context, so players don't get credit for more runs than their team actually scored), defense position, baserunning (not just steals, but also advancement), reaching on error, grounding into double plays, and playing time (replacement level adjusted for league and era). Sounds like exactly like the sort of "Uberstat" we're looking for. So what do Rally's numbers tell us about the five players mentioned in Neyer's chart duplicated above? The most important thing Rally's WAR tells us is that the list should be sorted differently.

Player	Hit	BsR	GIDP	ROE	Defense	Position	Replace	RAR	WAR
Todd Helton	61	1	0	2	18	-10	18	90	8.8
Barry Bonds	71	3	0	0	5	-6	16	89	8.7
Jeff Kent	65	-4	-2	1	1	2	18	81	7.9
Jim Edmonds	42	0	2	3	3	2	18	70	6.8
Mike Piazza	39	-2	-2	-1	-3	7	16	54	5.2

I didn't do a comprehensive search, I just took the five players Neyer listed. I think the chart speaks for itself.

The great thing about WAR is that, properly implemented, it takes all the "difficulty" and mystery out of comparing players in different run environments (parks/leagues), at different positions, of differing defensive skills, etc. It not only gets away from Runs and RBI (while still using replacement level as a playing time guide to avoid the limitations of pure rate stats), but also uses linear weights to evaluate offense in an objective way that the three slash simply can't do on its own (i.e., trying to figure out how to weight each of the components [1.75*OBP+SLG is a good start, by the way]).

Jeff Kent was probably less liked than Barry Bonds, but was still an outstanding player (and borderline Hall-of-Famer, but that's another discussion) who helped his teams a great deal. But he wasn't even the best player on his team that season, despite actually being okay on defense. WAR isn't terribly precise, so one could make a case for either Bonds or Helton, it seems to me. But getting back to context -- these guys are all in the same league in the same year, so those considerations are irrelevant. It all comes down to a guy as smart as Rob Neyer seemingly "overadjusting" for Coors Field so much that he focuses on "road stats" for some reason. Why not simply reference park-adjusted stats?

Neyer writes:

But do you really want to argue -- with his road stats, anyway -- that Helton was better than Kent, Bonds, and Piazza? After including defense and baserunning?

Defense: Let's see, even though he played the easiest/least valuable position of the five, after you account for defense+position, the only player close is Edmonds, whom Rob already admits wasn't as good. 18 runs is 18 runs even at first base. Baserunning: Bonds was the better baserunner, but Helton wasn't bad, and clearly better than Kent and Piazza.

This is clearly a two-horse race between Helton and Bonds. One could make either argument. But to imply that it's sort of crazy to think Helton should be in the race is way off, especially in comparison to Piazza and Kent (the actual winner, whom Neyer tells us is the "right man.")

My main point isn't about the 2000 MVP Race, which is undoubtedly forgotten by most of us other than Kent, Bonds (who wasn't very happy about the result), Helton, and Neyer's correspondant. The main issue is that Neyer, who continues to be an excellent writer and analyst, obfuscates the issue with. It isn't just the "road stats" red herring, which is at least understandable on the level of "this is something my readers might get." But if you're going to bring up a total value "Uberstat" like Win Shares, why not go with one that's simpler, more intuitive, and more publicly available like WAR? C'mon, Rob!

It's not a big deal, but hey, this is the blogosphere, where Little Things are a Big Deal.

NB: For another approach to MVP/Hall of Fame issues, see vivaelpujols' posts on Pennant and Playoff Probability Added.

Thursday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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Miguel Tejada has now been around long enough to have been a part of two golden ages of short stops.

As the August 17 signing deadline for draft picks approaches, Baseball Prospectus is featuring a two part installment on the draft and what can be done to fix it. As it stands, there are still 19 first round picks who are unsigned. The slotting system is partially to blame and the strength of the player's union stands in the way of any meaningful change. One interesting quote from an unnamed scout about the draft should hit home with Astros' fans

The good thing about baseball is that the system itself rewards preparation and intelligence and scouting, and punishes those who don't do a good job.

Joba Chamberlain is a tough guy to figure out:

In the Bizarro World that Joba Chamberlain inhabits, the better he pitches, the fewer times he'll get the ball, while the worse he pitches, the more starts he'll get between now and the finish line.

Come again?

TangoTiger looks at whether Pitcher Abuse Points actually work in determining the risk associated with pitch counts and starting pitchers. He basically shows that he can't prove that it does, and that people put too much stock into this theory.

I think it's safe to say that we have our fair share of free time on our hands. Do you ever think you'll have enough time to figure out the Astros' record based on the particular uniform worn? One guy did. It's amazing how little we wear our "primary" road unis: the grey uniform with black cap. I guess Drayton likes the red unis the most.

If Dustin Pedroia was the 2008 MVP, then Aaron Hill should be in the running this season. Oh, what's that? Pedroia plays for RedSawx Nation and Hill doesn't? Oh, well in that case. Yea, yea- I know Boston was a relevant team last season and the Jays are a middling club this season...but still.

***Trivia Question****:

I was listening to Mike and Mike in the Morning yesterday, and Jason Stark posed the following trivia question to the guys:

Can you name the six active major leaguers who have nine or more career seasons of 100+ RBI?

[**DQ Insert**]

Richard Justice checks in with Drayton McLane to see what this season's poor attendence holds for the 2010 Astros. What found isn't encouraging for anyone hoping for a splashy free agent signing:

Drayton won't say what his payroll will be in 2010, emphasizing only that the Astros likely will get younger and have a lower payroll. Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are signed for a combined $48.5 million in 2010, and Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez are going to get nice raises in arbitration. Jose Valverde and Miguel Tejada could be allowed to depart via free agency, and Bud Norris, Jason Castro, Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella could be on the opening day roster

With Chris Johnson showing little to actually no improvement in plate discipline at AAA this year and my inherient skepticism at Manzella's defensive ability at SS, I'm a little worried.

Miguel Tejada is apparently a tough cookie to bench. His argument is a valid one given that my inquiry into what an off day could do for Tejada at the plate revealed in December (that it really only helps his SLG); maybe he doesn't need one, provided the hits keep coming for Miggy. The article also notes that he's on pace to become the first Astro to collect 200 hits since Craig Biggio did it in 1998. There's also more explanation on Wesley Wright's trip to the DL. Note to Drayton: Please, please evaluate Coop's ability to manage his relief pitchers this year when considering whether or not to continue allowing him to manage the Astros.

Darin Erstad sings the praises of Michael Bourn's defense in this piece from Brian McTaggart. I was struck by Erstad's note that:

[H]ow Bourn is able to catch balls that are hit over his head. "In my opinion, that's the hardest ball to make a play," Erstad said. "He's been doing it with ease. Probably the biggest thing is his ability to throw out runners at home. You don't see guys get thrown out from center field very often. That is not an easy throw, and there are very few guys that can do that. Jim Edmonds and Andruw Jones are two that could."

Erstad's evaluation of Bourn's defensive ability is consistent with what has previously been hashed out here at TCB. This discussion even took place over at BtB recently, where it was concluded that yes, Bourn is better than his 2009 UZR would indicate.

With one in the win column last night, Richard Justice concurs with my opinion that our Vitamin Puma deficiency was causing our skid and is starting the bandwagon back up again. He's even going as far to assert his belief that the Astros could still hit the 90 win mark that Coop predicted.