SB Nation - Chipper Jones

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 3

raygu — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Here is part 3 of the 4-part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times:

Fake Teams: When evaluating hitters before a draft, I like to look at their previous year's stats and decide if the hitter can improve upon those stats or not. How do you evaluate hitters when preparing for a draft?

Derek Carty: My approach is a bit different and comprehensive, but here's the general gist of it. I look at a lot of different things for hitters. For power, I've created a statistic using HitTracker data which I call True Home Runs (or tHR). What this aims to do is take some of the luck out of home runs. You'll often hear people say something like "a home run is a home run", but that couldn't be further from the truth. A guy who pounds a 500-foot home run is much more likely to hit more home runs than a guy who squeaks one over a 320 foot fence, ceteris paribas. He's stronger, and if he can hit the long ones, he's only guaranteed to hit some short ones. tHR first neutralizes park and weather (obvious influencers ) and also accounts for the distance of home runs (not so obvious but very important influencer). The logic behind doing this might not be readily apparent, so you can read more in-depth explanations here and here (the articles are older and from the preliminary stages of development, but the logic is still relevant).

For batting average, I'll focus on the three things that it is comprised of: how often the batter puts the ball in play (strikeout rate), how often those balls clear the fence (home run rate), and how often the remaining balls in play fall for hits (BABIP). Strikeout rate is a very stable stat, so not much needs to be altered with it. For the HR component I'll use tHR and for BABIP I'll use xBABIP. This is not the xBABIP that some refer to, calculated as LD%+.120. I've found this to be worse than actual BABIP in predictive ability and should always be ignored for these purposes. Instead, I like using the xBABIP created by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix, which I've found to be very predictive (relatively speaking). In fact, I'm actually working with Dutton now on further improving the formula. That work should be published later in the off-season.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm also currently working on a form of CAPS for hitters, which I suppose will be called CABS (Context Adjusted Batting Statistics), so that'll be thrown into my evaluations. Eventually, it'll all boil down to my projection system spitting out a projection for every hitter, which will encompass all of the concepts I've described above and a few more. For some hitters, I'll probably supplement these projections with my scouting perspective as with the pitchers.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I have won a few NL-only 5x5 leagues by drafting just middle relievers and closers and focusing on drafting hitters early. Other than your LABR draft strategy, what other draft strategies have you used, and how successful were they?

Derek Carty: I believe it's crucial to create your strategies based on the specifics of the league: the settings, the opponents, and what you know about your own tendencies within the context of these things. In some leagues, I'll refuse to draft closers until the end. In others, I'll take a pair of them early. In some, I'll embrace risky players. In others, I'll play it safe for the first half of the draft or longer. There are some general rules for these things (i.e. the shallower the league, the easier it is to take risks) but every league truly is different and must be evaluated individually.

As one example from this season, I played in an expert league run by KFFL with some heavy competition (partnered up with fellow-THT writer Eriq Gardner, though he replaced Victor Wang after the draft, who left THTF to do some work for MLB clubs). It was a 12-team mixed Yahoo! League. We focused on hitters early, taking mostly guys with good health records and stable skill sets with just one pitcher in the single-digit rounds, then grabbed several SPs in the early teens (including Javy Vazquez - in 12-team mixed leagues, I've found that there's a treasure trove of good pitchers to be had in this area). After that we went for some high-upside guys (like Matt Wieters and Nyjer Morgan) or undervalued guys (like Cody Ross and J.D. Drew), and eventually took a couple of closer candidates towards the end.

One smaller strategy we really looked to employ focused on deliberately getting a few injury risk players. I feel that the market does not value these players properly, leaving excess value ripe for the picking. I explained last year that if you combine the stats of a high-skill, injury-prone player with those of a replacement level player (when he's injured), you end up with a stat line well-worth the reduced cost of the so-called "injury risk" player. This is a strategy that will only work in shallower leagues like this one, though, because the static production of the replacement level players is much higher than it will be in deep leagues. In an AL/NL-only league, this would fail miserably because replacement level is someone like Juan Castro. In KFFL, we looked to use it with Chase Utley (whose status was unknown at draft time), Chipper Jones, Rich Harden, Matt Wieters, J.D. Drew, and a couple others. We were also very active on the waiver wire (over 200 transactions), keeping several rotating bench spots and streaming extra hitters on Mondays and Thursdays and elite relievers on the other days. We didn't start this until June, though, which likely cost us the league. We ultimately finished 3^rd, though it was very close and we were in 1^st just a few days before the end of the season.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

View full size photo »

Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:25:20 -0000

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 8th:

In the Press...

Baseball America released their top-10 Braves prospects for 2010.
SI.com reported that the Braves might make a play for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, but then Frank Wren shot down that rumor.
Talking Chop was one of the first to report that the Braves signed reliever Scott Proctor to a very affordable minor league contract.
Tim Hudson says his contract extension is essentially done, but we are still waiting on the MRI result on his right elbow before the Braves officially announce the deal.
Four Braves players filed for free agency.
Mike Minor got roughed up big-time in his start in the AFL Rising Stars game.
The blog, Stadium Journey, reviewed their visit to Turner Field.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence continued to rise this off-season.
We reviewed the 2009 seasons of the Braves starting pitchers, Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Kenshin Kawakami.
Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg was named the Topps Appy League Player of the Year.
I asked if J.J. Putz could be an option at closer for next year.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

jmorris811 shared a bunch of his Braves photos with us.
ryan c thinks Chipper Jones should be moved into the number-2 spot in the batting order.
arnec reprints a nice story about Ralph Garr and the Richmond Braves.
rbravesfan shares some pictures of the Rome Braves.
justincredubil02 cannot bring himself to believe that the Braves would trade Javier Vazquez.
mvhsball takes issue with columnist Mark Bradley's suggestion to make Tommy Hanson a closer.
PWHjort passes along a comment about Mike Minor from BA's Jim Callis.

Upcoming Events...

The first ever Brian McCann Celebrity Softball Game is set for November 13th... details here. We're making this a bit of a Talking Chop outing, so everyone get your tickets!
The Gwinnett Braves have a whole slate of off-season events planned at their ballpark, the list is here.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:39:17 -0000

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 1st:

In the Press...

John Sickels released his top-20 Braves prospects for 2010.
The Braves hired former major league pitching coach Dave Wallace as their minor league pitching coordinator.
Chipper Jones was interviewed by Forbes.com.
It was reported by several different sources that Tim Hudson was close to a contract extension with Atlanta.
David O'Brien gave us an update on how our prospects are faring in the Arizona Fall League.

At Talking Chop...

Talking Chop was the first to report that Jason Heyward would return to Atlanta to have his injured hamstring examined. It was later learned that he would not be returning to the AFL, and will instead use the winter to recover.
We reviewed the 2009 season of center fielders Nate McLouth and Jordan Schafer and outfielder Matt Diaz.
CB reviewed the top-5 minor league center fielders and the top-5 minor league right fielders in the Braves organization.
The bloggers of Talking Chop conducted two round tables about the state of the left fielders, center fielders, and right fielders in the Braves system.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

royhobbs gave us a pictorial recap of the 2009 season.
Sid Bream's Moustache shared a link about the source of baseball's magic mud.
TradeAndruw linked to MLBTR's off-season outlook for the Braves.
traphicg thinks that the hiring of Mark McGwire as the Cardinals hitting coach paves the way for Chipper Jones to one day be the Braves hitting coach.
schaef888 was nice enough to recap a fan chat by prospect guru Jim Callis.

Who Would You Rather Have: Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

raygu — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

Time for the World Series edition of Who Would You Rather Have? CBS Sportsline recently completed a 5x5 mixed league mock draft, and Chase Utley was selected 4th overall before Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez to name a few. After Utley went deep twice on Wednesday night do you select him before ARod? Or is ARod still a more valuable fantasy player?

Let's take a look at their 2009 stats:

Name	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Utley	571	161	31	112	93	88	110	23	0.282	0.397	0.508	0.905
Alex Rodriguez	444	127	30	78	100	80	97	14	0.286	0.402	0.532	0.934

ARod had better overall numbers across the board in less ABs, but Utley is one of the few stud fantasy players at 2B, and there is more depth at 3B than at 2B, right? I am not so sure.

More after the jump:

Here are the third baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Mark Reynolds	44
Ryan Zimmerman	33
Evan Longoria	33
Alex Rodriguez	30
Kevin Youkilis	27
Brandon Inge	27
Pablo Sandoval	25
Mark DeRosa	23
Michael Young	22

And here the second baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Aaron Hill	36
Chase Utley	31
Ian Kinsler	31
Dan Uggla	31
Ben Zobrist	27
Robinson Cano	25
Jose Lopez	25
Clint Barmes	23
Brandon Phillips	20

One could make the case that third base is a scarce postion in 2010, especially if you think that Mark DeRosa is tailing off as a fantasy player and don't think Brandon Inge can hit 27 HRs again. Of course the Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez should hit 30+ HRs should he stay healthy in 2010, but can one count on Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen to hit 20+ HRs again?

Second base is not as scarce as it used to be with Aaron Hill having a breakout (career?) year in 2009, and Ben Zobrist coming out of nowhere to hit 27 HRs in 2009. I won't count on Clint Barmes hitting 20+ HRs again, especially with the AVG that comes with it. Could the Braves Martin Prado sneak into the 20+ HR range with regular playing time in 2010?

So, with all that said, who would you rather have?

Poll

Who would you rather have: Chase Utley or Alex Rodriguez?

ARod-he can hit 40+ in that ballpark

64 votes

Utley-he brings power and more speed.

92 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

Braves Third Baseman Chipper Jones talks with Forbes.com

gondeee — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:55:53 -0000

The financial magazine Forbes has an interview up online with Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones. Why Forbes is interviewing a baseball player I do no know, but here is possibly the best answer to a question like this I've ever heard:

[Forbes:] Near the end of the season, you mentioned that you were considering retirement after next season. Now that that the season is over, do you still feel the same?

[Chipper Jones:] I was really frustrated with how the middle part of the season went for me. I have such high standards for myself and I will never settle for being a mediocre player. I will work extremely hard to make sure that doesn't happen again this year.

I think we will see a Chipper Jones on a mission next season. I know he can get there mentally, let's hope his body cooperates with him. The rest of the interview is here.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 16:45:03 -0000

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on October 25th:

In the Press...

There were some suggestions by beat writers David O'Brien and Mark Bowman about the off-season direction the Braves will take.
Talking Chop first reported that Jason Heyward was sidelined with a leg injury, which was later reported by the Braves.com site.
The Braves "got the ball rolling" on contract extension talks with Tim Hudson.
The Braves hired another former member of the Orioles front office.
The AJC reported that Martin Prado is likely going to be the Braves 2010 opening day second baseman.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll showed that Braves fans are already feeling better about the off-season.
We reviewed the 2009 season of third baseman Chipper Jones.
The 2009 seasons of Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, and Garret Anderson were also reviewed.
Matt reviewed the top-5 Braves third base prospects and the top-5 left field prospects.
Matt Diaz chatted with fans on ESPN, we wrapped up the most interesting Qs & As.
The bloggers of Talking Chop conducted a round table on the third basemen in the Braves organization.
We continue to recap the Braves prospects' performances in the games of the baseball fall and winter leagues, here and here.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

GoBravesNY told us about prospect Jeff Lyman's Arizona Fall League blog, and cbwilk told us about L.V. Ware's blog.
justincredubil02 informed everyone how to get free Braves merchandise.
Dale Murphy for HOF gave us his top-5 best and top-5 worst Braves trades.
GoBravesNY asked everyone what their screen names meant, mine (gondeee) is a play on my last name, Gandy.
PWHjort expanded upon a link from the USS Mariner about roster construction theory.

Upcoming Events...

The first ever Brian McCann Celebrity Softball Game is set for November 13th... details here. We're making this a bit of a Talking Chop outing, so everyone get your tickets!
The Gwinnett Braves have a whole slate of off-season events planned at their ballpark, the list is here.

Braves Top-5 Minor League Third Basemen

yondaime4 — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:00:27 -0000

While the middle INF depth chart for the Braves is filled with mostly non prospects, the corner spots are slightly better stocked. First Base of course has Frederick Freeman and a couple of big power guys behind him. Third Base falls somewhere between the talent of First Base and the middle INF positions. Even if they aren't all 'prospects' in the traditional sense, most of the guys here are interesting players with some value going forward. Two guys tied for the top spot in the combined TC rankings: Donell Linares and Jake Hanson.

1A. Donell Linares B/T: R/R Born: 10/28/1983 HT: 6'0" WT: 199

Donell Linares is one of those guys that isn't a prospect in the traditional sense of the word. He played this season at age 25 at High A Myrtle Beach which made him a full year older than anyone else on the roster and 2-3 years older than many of his teammates. Linares is a Cuban defector whom the Braves signed on June 20, 2008. 2009 was his US debut in professional ball as he just spent a couple of weeks staying sharp in the DSL last summer. With all that being said he put together a solid campaign for the Pelicans and was probably the best hitter down the stretch.

Linares skill set bears some resemblance to fellow countryman Yunel Escobar, but he sports an even lower K rate (14th most difficult to K in the minors this season) and a little bit more current pop. He posted a .772 OPS for the Pelicans, which isn't wowing, but when considered with the fact that this was his first year in the US it has to be considered a success. Another strong indicator for next season is how he improved late in the season. His OPS was 80 pts higher after the All Star break, which was mostly buoyed by a big August where he hit 6 of his 15 homers. Linares is excellent at getting the bat on the ball, which is great, but it also means that he may never walk a ton. His walk rate did improve significantly the last two months of the season but it still was not spectacular. If he can tap into his power for a full season and take a few more free passes he would actually have a bat that could play every day at the major league level.

Linares has little to no speed, going 5/10 in stolen base attempts this season and wasn't anything special in the field either as he committed 22 errors at 3B. He played a few games at 1B and wasn't bad, but without any eyes on data there is no way to make a real judgment on his defensive prowess other than the numbers. He also has very little room for projection being nearly 26 years old. For him to be valuable to the Braves he will need to be ready in the next season or so, but if he maintains his production as he moves up the ladder he could be a serviceable stopgap if Chipper plans to retire suddenly.

1B. Jake Hanson B/T: R/R Born: 11/20/1989 HT: 6'0" WT: 180

If Linares ranks at the top of this list because of his current toolset, Jake Hanson ranks up here because of future projection. Taken in the 14th Rd in the 2008 amateur draft, Hanson won't be 20 years old until November and still has plenty of room for projection in his body. He debuted in the GCL last season and posted .721 OPS (which is about 50 pts better than league average in the GCL). This year Hanson returned to the GCL and had a mini-breakout where he posted an .842 OPS ranking him in the top 10 in the league.

The biggest area that Hanson improved upon was his power production (Which is to be expected of someone who is a teenager!). In 2008 he slugged .345 with an ISOP of .090 which both would have put him around league average. In 2009 he improved that to .450 and .170 respectively (this year's league AVGs were .335 SLG and .097 ISOP). Another skill that Jake is already showing is the ability to take walks. He has walked in a little over 12% of his PAs since being drafted which is superb, especially for someone his age.

Right now Jake's biggest problem is what most young players struggle with: strikeouts. In his pro career he has struck out in about 24% of his PAs. He has time to correct this and with him already showing the ability to take a walk, even if the Ks stay where they are he could still be a valuable offensive player. His defense is rough around the edges since he was a SS in high school and has been making the transition to 3B, but there is no reason to believe he can't stick there long term. He just needs some seasoning. Hanson impressed the Braves in his pre-draft workout last year and is known to be an extremely hard worker. At this point he just needs to let his body mature and adds its natural strength and improve his already solid skill base. Jake Hanson could turn out to be another great find for the Braves scouting department. He has nothing left to prove in the GCL, so expect to see him start next year at Danville in the Appalachian league (unless he really impresses in spring workouts).

3. Jordan Kreke B/T: R/R Born: 03/21/1987 HT: 6'1" WT: 205

Jordan Kreke was taken by the Braves in the 13th round in the 2009 amateur draft. He made his debut in Danville as the everyday third basemen after being a shortstop in college. Kreke comes into the system with as a Louisville Slugger Third Team All American after he posted a .394 AVG for Eastern Illinois this season.

Kreke showed improvement every year in college going from a .567 OPS in limited playing time his freshman year to to being a 3 time player of the week (a record) in the Ohio Valley Conference. He hit for more power his Sr. season with 32 extra base hits (his previous high was 25) and hit 13 homers after only hitting 4 in his first three seasons. Jordan's pro debut wasn't quite as successful as his Sr. season as he posted just a .712 OPS for Danville at 22 years old. His power all but vanished but he did maintain a solid AVG and OBP. He shows a polished college approach that leads to a decent number of walks and low strike out totals.

Kreke needs to rediscover his power in order to become a viable 3B prospect. He also needs to make the most of his opportunities. At present his offense plays more towards the middle of the INF and less on a corner. He has never been much a stolen base threat and his defense is still developing at 3B after switching positions opon being drafted. Look for Kreke to start 2010 in Rome unless he wows the world and gets a bump to Myrtle Beach.

4. Edison Sanchez B/T: R/R Born: 11/01/1990 HT: 6'4" WT: 195

Edison Sanchez had one of the best seasons in the DSL this season posting a .921 OPS as an 18 year old. When looking through his profile there really isn't much to like about him. At 18 he is already an imposing figure on the diamond at 6'4" and stands to fill out his frame as he matures. Atlanta's front office also rewarded his great season by making him the DSL Minor League Player of the Year.

Sanchez flashed solid power in his second season in the DSL as he knocked 4 HR to go along with 4 triples and 7 doubles. His ISOP was a solid .175 (solid for the DSL at least) and he should add more power as he puts on muscle. The most impressive stat concerning this 18 year old is his walk rate. In two seasons in the DSL he has walked right around a 17% clip. That is absolutely phenomenal for any level. His 34/42 K/BB rate bodes well for his future success.

DSL stats are not always the easiest to interpret because it is difficult to gauge the level of competition and field conditions that players are competing in, so any time a guy puts up great stats in a complex league they have to be taken with a tiny grain of salt. That said the stats cannot really be ignored either. On the surface Edison Sanchez appears to be a very solid prospect going forward. The only knock on him long term may be that he outgrows 3B. Granted 3B is a position for big guys, but if he grows much more he could lose the mobility that allows him to stay there. Sanchez could move up to the GCL or Danville next season depending on the depth and his performance in spring training. If he gets off to a hot start there could be a lot of buzz surrounding him.

5. Van Pope B/T: R/R Born: 02/26/1984 HT: 6'0" WT: 200

Ah Van Pope, at one time the heir apparent to Chipper Jones. Alas, no more. Pope peaked in 2006 in Myrtle Beach where he posted a .783 OPS (when Myrtle Beach was still death to hitters) along with 15 homers (about 10 more than he has ever hit at any other level). Since then he has regressed in most facets of his offensive game though his one above average tool, his defense, has remained intact.

At one time Van Pope looked like he was going to develop into a power hitting 3B prospect with gold glove defense and a solid eye at the plate. Now at age 25, his career isn't over, but he is going to have turn things around soon or be passed up by other players, especially the way Frank Wren has been releasing veteran minor leaguers who may still have potential. In the three seasons since he hit 15 HR in Myrtle Beach Pope has hit just 14 total since then seeing his ISOP go from .167 down to .087 this season. He still doesn't strike out a ton, and his walks have actually improved since falling off a cliff after the 2005 season. He did suffer from a horribly low BABIP (.238) even though he had a really high line drive %.

There are still some things here to like about Van Pope. Obviously the Gold Glove caliber defense is worthwhile and could probably get him a roster spot somewhere. Unfortunately he just isn't going to stick anywhere until the bat comes around. There is still a little light at the end of this tunnel, but wherever his power has gone he needs to go find it again. His walk and K rates are solid enough to rate as average. Expect to see Van Pope back in Gwinnett to start the 2010 season and if things don't turn around, don't expect to see him after that.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Chipper Jones

gondeee — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:02:43 -0000

This is going to be a short review of the 2009 season of Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones. Not because he doesn't deserve a lengthy review, but because it's hard to extrapolate what really happened to Chipper this year. Was it as bad as his 2004 season -- his lowest OPS+ season outside of his rookie year? Maybe. Chipper's OPS+ was one point higher this year (117) than it was in 2004 (116). What was startling about Chipper's '09 campaign was the decline in his power output.

Chipper has a career .541 slugging percentage and in 2009 he posted the worst slugging percentage of his career at .430. That 111 point drop-off from his career number is eclipsed only by the 144 point drop-off from his 2008 slugging percentage of .574. What happened? Why did his power disappear?

While I don't think anyone, even Chipper, definitively has the answer to that question, we can see the decline of his power throughout the year, and from that infer that perhaps the rigors of the long season (his most games played in 6 year) on his now 38-year old body may be catching up to him... but maybe there's something else too...

Slugging by Month for Chipper Jones:

Month / Year	2009	2008	2007
March/April	.508	.690	.640
May	.494	.615	.600
June	.441	.552	.536
July	.494	.460	.556
August	.371	.452	.582
Sept/Oct	.315	.612	.693

In previous years Chipper started out with a higher baseline of slugging to begin the season, and even though he declined some throughout the year, he seemed to bounce back at the end. This year he just kept declining throughout the year, which wasn't good since he started out below his career slugging percentage to begin with.

When I look closer at these numbers, and when I take away his September numbers from 2008, what I see is the absence of a real power threat hitting behind Chipper Jones beginning to affect his power. Take September 2008 as an anomaly or a few lucky hits, but every other month since Mark Teixeira left, Chipper has struggled to come close to his career slugging average. This is no knock on Brian McCann, but we all know that McCann, as good as he is, is not really a cleanup hitter, at least not one that pitchers fear.

All season it seemed that Jones was reaching for pitches and swinging at balls outside of his normal zone. This was because he wasn't getting the pitches he's accustomed to getting inside the zone. Combine the lack of a supporting batter hitting behind Chipper with his aging body and slowing swing and perhaps a desire to go outside his strike zone to make things happen and the result is possibly the worst offensive year of Chipper's career in 2009.

This, more than anything, is why the Braves must go out and get a big bat this off-season. This is also something to point to as a large failure of last off-season. What if we had signed Adam Dunn? As many flaws as some say he has, pitchers don't want to face his power. So by signing Dunn or someone like him the Braves would not just be adding a hitter of that caliber, but they'd also be boosting the output that they would likely get from Chipper Jones.

I am excited to be exclusively displaying the work of artist Chris Speakman, who allowed me to use these two prints of Chipper Jones. Speakman is licensed by Major League Baseball to create and sell "1940's propaganda style" limited edition hand made screen-prints on paper. He is currently working on a a series of baseball cards with Topps featuring his art. If you like what you see, head to www.sportspropaganda.com to view more and purchase these prints.