SB Nation - Mark Teixeira

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Washington Nationals: Hot Stove Update.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 10:39:22 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Where will the Nationals turn for the help their roster needs this offseason? Can Mike Rizzo pull off a deal to improve their pitching? (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

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DC GM Mike Rizzo's tone when he told Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell (in an early September '09 article entitled, "Time to Make Most of This Horror Show", where he listed fourteen of the top free agent pitchers on the market), that he knew, "Some of (the pitchers) have club options that may be picked up...But that's a long list. We're going to get one of them," seemed much more assured than that with which he addressed the Nationals' approach to the upcoming Winter Meetings in MLB.com writer Bill Ladson's 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", wherein he was quoted as stating:

"'We don't think that the free-agent class leads us to [pay big money]' Rizzo said. 'I believe the things we need or want the most are out there, and we are going to address it. I don't see us going after that super free agent like Matt Holliday or Jon Garland. I don't see us playing on that level. We don't think it's a fit for us.'"

Two weeks ago, MLB.com's Bill Ladson's "baseball source" said in an article entitled, "Nats interested in free agent Lackey", that the Nationals were, "one of several teams who have expressed interest in free agent right-hander John Lackey", and Mr. Ladson held Washington's pursuit, last winter, of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, (who, of course, signed with New York), up as an example of how, for "...the second year in a row...the Nationals have been players for a big name free agent," but two weeks later, Mr. Ladson's writing that DC fans should not, "...look for the Nationals to attempt to break the bank like they tried to do with first baseman Mark Teixeira during last year's Winter Meetings." Uh?...

• What made DC GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals change their minds?

• Should the Nationals be pursuing pitching talent via free agency?

• Did you seriously think that Washington would sign someone like John Lackey this winter?

• Will the Nationals and their new GM be able to trade for the talent they think they need?

• The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco? The Braves' Javier Vazquez? Someone in another division, please? Who should the Nationals be pursuing?

Around the Yankee Universe: Typical Jeter

Ed Valentine — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:30:48 -0000

More photos » by David Goldman - AP

New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter holds the 2009 Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year trophy after an award ceremony in New York on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2009.

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Derek Jeter's comments about winning the Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year award were typical Jeter. Classy and humble. In other words, I am sure they will provide fodder for the legion of Jeter bashers to find something silly to say about the Yankee captain.

Here is some of what Jeter said.

"I thought the cover came out nice. The only thing that I thought was missing from that were my parents on both sides," Jeter said. "Even if you don't see them, just know that they're there beside me at all times."

Yep. Exactly the type of thing you would expect him to say.

Yes, even the Yankees have a budget

And over the next couple of days general manager Brian Cashman will find out what that is.

By the time general manager Brian Cashman drops his bags near the door of a hotel suite in Indianapolis next week, the Yankees will have a better idea of just how much they can spend plugging the holes of a World Series-winning roster.

"Once I get some firm numbers, I can go ahead and start putting together some ideas," Cashman said.

The Yankees were set to gather in Tampa, Fla., on Thursday and Friday of this week to discuss the parameters of their offseason budget, which will be sizable but not as extravagant as it was last winter, when New York shelled out a combined $423.5 million to land CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira.

Yankees scouring reliever market

The Yankees have expressed interest in free-agent reliever Brandon Lyon, according to major-league sources. The Yankees likely will express interest in all of the top available late-inning relievers — lefty Mike Gonzalez, righties Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano and Jose Valverde — if they haven't already.

My take: It doesn't take a genius to figure out the Yankees will at least kick the tires on the reliever market. With both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain ticketed for the rotation, it's a no-brainer. Of course, it's also pretty easy to make the argument that the Yankees already have a ton of young, talented arms and don't need to bring in a veteran.

(Hat tip to MLB Trade Rumors)

Talking about Johnny Damon

The free-agent outfielder apparently thinks not being offered arbitration by the Yankees is a good thing.
River Avenue Blues says if Damon leaves, Mike Cameron would be the perfect short-term replacement. My take: We have heard Cameron's name connected to the Yankees for so long now I have to think that if Damon isn't re-signed this would be a strong possibility. And I guess I could live with it for a year.

A.J. Burnett makes pitch for Halladay

Here is Burnett talking about the Toronto ace.

"I think it's time for him to get a fresh start," Burnett said Monday. "He's paid his dues there, been the face of the organization, done everything they've asked him to do and more. At this point in his career, I think he just wants to win."

My take: I am on record as being in favor of bringing Halladay to the Bronx. In reality, though, I don't think there is much chance Burnett will get his wish.

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 2

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:20 -0000

by Danny Moloshok - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, right, comes into the dugout after scoring after Augie Ojeda was walked by Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher James McDonald with the bases loaded during the 10th inning of a baseball game, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks won 5-3. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

View full size photo »

This was not an easy pick for me, as I considered Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira and Mark Reynolds, but I couldn't get away from the upside of J-Up-Justin Upton.

Upton went 26-86-20-.300-..366-.532-.899 in 2009 while watching his K% drop from 34% in 2008 to 26% in 2009. His HR/FB% increased from 15.3% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2009 which coincided with a drop in his FB% from 41.9% in 2008 to 35.7% in 2009. Upton also increased his ISO, or isolated power, from .213 in 2008 to .232 in 2009. Should he be able to maintain his HR/FB% while increasing his FB%, he could easily hit 30 HRs in 2010. I think he can do better than that actually.

Upton not only provided fantasy owners with solid power, but he also contributed 20 SBs in 2009 after stealing only 1 bag in 2008. I think the speed is here to stay as the Diamondbacks struggled to score runs in 2009, and I think that trend continues in 2010. I expect Upton to steal between 20-25 bags in 2010.

Upton is capable of a 30-100-20-.300 season in 2010, and should be drafted accordingly.

11/25 - Spreading Ideas

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:00:12 -0000

Funny to see how similar opinions are starting to form on separate sites. Of course, some sites form the opinions more in the posts, rather than the comments. Could be a function of how the sites are set up though. Anyways, here's two quick, random links:

Rising star, prospect win Boston honors - redsox.com

Buch and Lavarnway are the best. Anyone have issues with these awards?

Projected WAR and Contract Values for Free Agent Position Players - BtB

Interesting - Beltre is projected almost equal with Figgins. Oh, and Holliday is far ahead of Bay (yes, UZR issues, but still).

Now I can show you how other sites are coming to the same conclusion as we have.

Will the Sox Acquire Adrian Beltre to Replace Lowell? - Fire Brand of the American League

Wow, that's a lot of writing. Pretty much consolidates all the stuff we've been saying.

Working out the Beltre Theory - Yawkey Way Academy

So it appears everyone agrees: this isn't an easy decision - especially when there's this option:

Report: Tigers' Miguel Cabrera Available Via Trade, Red Sox Listed as Prime Candidate - NESN.com

We discussed this shortly in the Mauer MVP thread, but here's the official story.

Miguel Cabrera? No thanks - Extra Bases

The Tigers are owned by pizza magnate Mike Ilitch and have a pile of money. If Cabrera is being shopped, it's not for budgetary reasons. It's because they decided they would be better off without him. That should give teams plenty of pause.

Oh snap.

Comparison shopping sluggers: Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira - Boston Herald

Okay... and your point is?

Some sites don't really come up with new stuff, and then some sites find random ideas that actually might work:

Have Homicidal Tendencies, Will Travel - Surviving Grady

Hmm... interesting. Not sure where'd he fit, but it's definitely worth looking into if we somehow manage to need MORE players.

After the jump, some coaching staff items, a bit of alarming news, and trying to get everyone caught up.

For Red Sox, a Ray(s) of Inspiration - Full Count

Interesting to see how coaching staffs evolve.

Tim Bogar braces for the hot seat - Full Count

Catcher Luis Exposito Leads Five Red Sox Prospects in Arizona Fall League - NESN.com

The Blue Ribbon panel, 9 years later - Inside the Book

I've actually never heard of this. Sounds like it'd be a fun read for traveling, which is what I'll be doing today.

Source: Red Sox in on FA’s Scutaro, Escobar, R. Soriano - Boston Herald

NOOOOOO!!! The last two, sure, but NOT Scoots.

Cornering Some Offense in Boston - Sox Tea Party

At this point, it’s the general consensus that the Red Sox need a left-fielder, a shortstop and another power-hitting corner infielder. The hope is that the Red Sox will find a away to bring back Jason Bay and then move on to finding a legitimate bat at either first or third base. As for shortstop? Most fans I talk with are content with bringing back Alex Gonzalez, although I read a lot of other posts online that are against it, due to his low OBP.

Hahaha - good to see the opinion has presence.

Sox announce spring schedule, prices - Extra Bases

Tek Won't Catch Wake - Fenway West

Odd. I wonder why.

Falling to the Bottom of the Filter

Are the Smart Guys Hinting at Something? - YFSF

People are catching on!

Sox will think deeply about adding starters - The Boston Globe

No surprise.

Why Jason Bay Should've Accepted the Boston Red Sox' $60 Million Offer - Bleacher Report

He has been a crowd-pleaser and one of the best players on the Red Sox. His salary for 2009 was reported as $7.8 million, according to ESPN.com. It would be hard to support a claim that he be paid twice what he made when he batted .267 with 36 homers and 119 RBI, being among the league leaders in the latter two categories.

I don't support resigning Bay, but that's some faulty logic right there.

Feet of Clay: Boston Red Sox Should Part with Clay Buchholz - Bleacher Report

If that stops Eckstein [sic] from pulling the trigger, Red Sox Nation should initiate a coup d’etat.

Buchholz is a very talented pitcher, yes, and I would love to see him dominating opposing hitters in a Boston uniform. But why would the Red Sox choose an unproven prospect over an established slugger?

Oh, please, don't...

Comments, links, etc. Also, special request: If you want to say something about a specific link, rather than a general idea, don't be afraid to go to the source to voice your opinion. If you do, it'd be awesome if you could drop OTM's name, especially if you are expressing a view that you may have picked up by participating in OTM; it would keep the offseason fresh if we had a stream of new ideas coming in from other sites.

Joe Mauer wins AL MVP

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:39:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

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Twins catcher Joe Mauer wins the AL MVP in a near unanimous vote, taking 27 of 28 first place votes. Mauer put up career highs in average, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, OPS, and walks, his best season in his six year career.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Mauer	138	523	94	191	30	1	28	96	76	63	4	1	.365	.444	.587

Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira and Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter followed Mauer, with Miguel Cabrera taking forth, edging out Angels first baseman Kendry Morales by one point.

Mauer is set to become a free agent after the 2010 season, and is looking for MVP dollars. Still, Minnesota is expected to make a serious push to keep the 26-year old All-Star.

Joe Mauer Named AL MVP

GameFish — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:31:41 -0000

Well, Joe Mauer has yet another award to place on his crowded mantel. Today the Baseball Writers Association of America selected the Minnesota Twins catcher as the AL MVP:

Mauer was named the American League Most Valuable Player by the Baseball Writers Association of America for the first time in his career on Monday, receiving 27 of the 28 first-place votes to easily beat out the Yankees' duo of Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter for the honor.

Mauer finished with 327 points, well ahead of Teixeira, who had 225, and Jeter, who had 193. Detroit first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who received the only other first-place vote, was fourth with 171 points.

Mauer is one of just two catchers to win the MVP award since 1976, with our good buddy Pudge Rodriguez being the other.

Random Weekend Question: Favorite/Least Favorite Non-O

Stacey — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

I saw this question posed as a FanPost on another site and thought it was a pretty good idea for a slow, pre-Thanskgiving weekend. So who's your favorite baseball player that's not an Oriole? Least favorite non-O? Why?

Some of my favorites:

Matt Garza - He seems a little bit insane, and I feel like he's going to be crazy good.
Roy Halladay - I just love everything about him. I saw a rumor the Dodgers are trying to trade for him. That'd be nice because, you know.
Joe Nathan - Once when the Orioles were playing the Twins, Nathan wasn't available because his wife was having a baby. He got to the stadium just as the game was ending and while the Twins were shaking hands on the field he was out on the field in his street clothes handing out cigars and I thought it was the best.
Curtis Granderson - Probably my favorite non-Oriole. I love the way he plays CF, I love how involved he is in the community, I love that he writes a column on Yahoo sports, I love his tall socks, I love it all.

Some Least Favorites:

Ian Kinsler - I feel like he steals Brian Roberts' thunder. And his face bugs me.
Khalil Greene - Remember when people would talk periodically about the Orioles trading for this guy? I never understood it at all and I think started to resent him a little because of it. Why would the Orioles want this guy?
Aaron Rowand - He's not even good! He dives all over the place, so what?
Mark Teixeira - You know why.

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League MVP

Jesse — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:50:09 -0000

Scioscia...Andrus...Greinke...and looky looky who completes the puzzle!

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Joe Mauer	Minnesota Twins	24	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	371
2	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays	-	10	6	2	2	1	-	1	-	-	172
3	Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	2	3	2	4	3	2	7	1	-	-	158
4	Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	1	5	3	4	4	2	1	1	2	1	157
5	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	-	2	4	1	2	3	2	3	2	1	106
6	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	2	3	2	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	92
7	Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	-	-	3	1	2	4	-	2	-	5	74
8	Kevin Youkilis	Boston Red Sox	-	2	-	-	1	3	1	8	1	-	69
9	Chone Figgins	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	3	4	1	-	1	3	1	60
10	Jason Bay	Boston Red Sox	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	1	-	2	54
11	Kendry Morales	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	4	-	-	1	-	-	1	-	39
12	Ichiro Suzuki	Seattle Mariners	-	-	1	-	2	-	1	2	2	3	37
13	Franklin Gutierrez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	1	2	34
14	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	-	1	1	32
15	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	3	2	-	31
16	Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	1	22
17	Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	-	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	18
18	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	16
19	Adam Lind	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	4	16
20	Dustin Pedroia	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	1	13
21	Bobby Abreu	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	12
22	Aaron Hill	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	12
23	Mariano Rivera	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	9
24	Torii Hunter	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8
25	Brian Roberts	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	7
26	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	6
27	Carl Crawford	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
28	J.D. Drew	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
29	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
30	Jonathan Papelbon	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
31	Robinson Cano	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
32	Victor Martinez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
33	Michael Cuddyer	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
34	Shin-Soo Choo	Cleveland Indians	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
35	Michael Young	Texas Rangers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
36	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
37	Jason Kubel	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
38	Alex Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
39	Nick Markakis	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

YES! Clearly there were five people who weren't watching the same baseball season as everyone else, but look at that point differential between first and second place. And nobody voted Joe lower than third place, so kudos to all voting parties for that.

Having to vote for ten candidates means this is a pretty large chart with a lot of stragglers, and after Mauer I can't honestly remember who I voted for. I know I voted for one of Cuddyer and Kubel, although I can't promise full homerism by saying I voted for both. Still, I'm positive that Longoria, Cabrera, Zobrist, Jeter and Youkilis were in there somewhere.

The only two AL teams not represented on this list? Oakland and Chicago.

Poll

Who gets your vote for American League MVP?

Joe Mauer

370 votes

370 votes | Poll has closed