SB Nation - Jeff Francoeur

A Potentially Bizarre Lineup

Sam Page — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:28:00 -0000

A thought I just had: if the Mets sign Bay, Molina, and, for the sake of argument, Nick Johnson, this would be the lineup, sorted by 2009 walk rate:

Nick Johnson 17.8% (1st in MLB)

Jason Bay 15.0%

Carlos Beltran 13.2%

Luis Castillo 12.4%

David Wright 12.2%

Jose Reyes 10.9%

--League Avg: 8.89%--

Jeff Francoeur: 3.7% (fourth worst in MLB)

Bengie Molina: 2.6% (last in MLB)

Daniel Murphy, the more likely firstvbaseman, had av7.0% mark, although he could really range from Francoeur-esque discipline to above-average, depending on which Murphy shows up in 2010. Imagine facing that kind of dropoff as a pitcher. I predict: Jeff Francoeur, .305 OBP, 150 RBIs.

Ryan Church DFA'ed by Braves

gondeee — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:08:10 -0000

Outfielder Ryan Church was designated for assignment by the Braves on Tuesday. In all likelihood this is a move to make room for Rafael Soriano on the 40-man roster. Church was likely not going to be tendered a contract later this month anyway, this way they may get something in return for him as they have 10-days to trade him or release him. Church stands to make several million more than the minimum next year through arbitration, and that's several million more than the Braves probably want to pay him

If they release him, then that ends the trade lineage of Jeff Francoeur. I said when we got Church, that he was a guy we could release whenever we wanted to, whereas Francoeur was not.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

The Race To "In The Best Shape Of His Life"

James Kannengieser — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:00:17 -0000

One of the great clichés of spring training is the declaration that Player X is "in the best shape of his life." Usually a sportswriter conveys the message but it's not uncommon for the player to deliver it himself. We're far away from pitchers and catchers but this hot stove season is exasperating. A poll to determine who people think will be the first Met declared "in the best shape of his life" (or some variant) is more attractive to me right now then fretting over a rumor by some random dude who Tweeted that the Mets want to sign Johnny Damon. Here are some candidates, followed by the poll. Feel free to add other suggestions/justifications:

Oliver Perez - He has to be the favorite in this race. After about as disastrous a 2009 as possible, and reports that he let himself go during the World Baseball Classic, Ollie is spending the offseason in Arizona at the Athletes Performance Institute. For $12 million a year, he better be in the best shape of this life by March 2010 if he has any pride in what he does.

Francisco Rodriguez - I have no way of confirming this, but it appeared that Frankie put on a few pounds this past season, atleast compared to his Angels days. More importantly, and verifiably, his peripherals slipped across the board. Strange, factoring his switch from the tougher AL to the NL. His velocity didn't slip though, and in fact slightly increased from 2008. A fit Frankie would be pumped up and ready to earn that vesting option from hell.

Daniel Murphy - Discussion of Murphy's work ethic became banal awhile ago. He would contend for this crown in any year, if only because people seem to love writing about his killer drive for success. He also has something to prove next season, especially if the Mets don't sign a free agent first baseman.

Jose Reyes - Jose might be this year's version of Luis Castillo. He suffered an injury and seemed to draw the ire of the fans, for various reasons. A report of Jose being in the best shape of his life might be disconcerting - it implies that he trained like an animal. I'd rather hear reports that he was cautious and didn't train too hard or too early. He has million dollar legs and they need to be taken care of. However, given his intensity and love for the game it wouldn't be surprising to see him first to earn the "best shape" moniker.

Jeff Francoeur - Just because.

Dark Horse: Nick Evans - Nasty Nick couldn't do anything to grab Jerry Manuel's attention in late 2009 so he needs to make a splash this spring. His plan should be to become so ripped that no one, not even Professor Jerry, will be able to ignore his flawlessly toned pectorals, biceps and quads. Piazza-esque batting practice displays in Port St. Lucie will follow. Free weights and 50 Gram Slams are on the path to glory for young Nick.

Poll

Who will be first to be declared "in the best shape of his life"?

Oliver Perez

338 votes

Francisco Rodriguez

25 votes

Daniel Murphy

24 votes

Jose Reyes

99 votes

Jeff Francoeur

39 votes

Nick Evans

13 votes

Other

13 votes

551 votes | Poll has closed

Another Reader Poll: Blasto or Frenchy

Sam Page — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:49:59 -0000

While I work on some more real content, I thought of another potentially interesting poll. I know there isn't a real-life situation where this will become relevant; I'm just wondering.

Poll

Which player would you rather have on the Mets right now?

Lastings Milledge

192 votes

Jeff Francoeur

482 votes

674 votes | Poll has closed

Wedge Applesauce - Mets look at Wedge for bench coach, Thole in physical danger?, Madoff's jacket sells

Joe Budd — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:35:54 -0000

Meet the Mets

I think I'll retract my desire to see Chone Figgins as a Met if it means him in left field and Castillo remaining at second.

MLB Trade Rumors also passes along a quote saying that the Mets are not a desirable destination for players.

Hot Foot argues that the Mets should take a flyer on Chien-Ming Wang.

Mets Merized has taken on the mantle of being Jeff Francoeur's primary defender and is starting to sound a little paranoid. Ted Berg concedes partly to this, but prays that the Mets don't extend the contract.

The Mets are considering former Cleveland manager Eric Wedge for a position on the bench.

New York is also thinking of bringing back Josh Thole from Venezuela after a rash of kidnappings.

Baseball America is impressed so far with Jenrry Mejia.

Bernie Madoff's Met jacket sold for $14,500.

Despite his amazing ability to take up Nick Evans' playing time, Fernando Tatis was a pretty valuable bench player.

Around the NL East

Elijah Dukes got ejected in a fall league game. Nicely done.

Would the Braves really think about giving up a first round pick for Billy Wagner?

Around MLB

NYBD's post regarding Carl Crawford's unhappiness (linked to as fact here; I'm hanging my head in shame on this one) has been widely discredited. More here. Silva, in response, even mocked the Tampa region.

More Tampa bay stuff. DRaysBay talks with GM Andrew Friedman. Compare this transcript to anything Omar has ever said.

Spit target and umpire John Hirschbeck calls Roberto Alomar a good friend and a sure Hall of Famer.

Would it make sense for the Pirates to unload Ryan Doumit now?

Jason Fry has some suggestions for improving beat writers' product.

Sam's 2010 Offseason Plan

Sam Page — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:30 -0000

Take this post for what it is, subject to change and wishful thinking. I intended this plan to be realistic in the sense that all the trades and signings are possible, but not realistic in that I think it's what the Mets will actually do--that's another post for another time. So without further ado:

The Major Moves:

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6/$110 Million contract, starting salary $17MM--Maybe he will only sign for five years, but I think at age 36 he would still be at least an adequate outfielder given his skillset. I already made most of the case for Holliday here, but especially in a year where the Mets have a protected first round pick, he seems like a perfect fit. Jason Bay will be a DH in a few years, given how precipitously his fielding has declined. He's an acceptable backup plan, only if he'll take significantly fewer years, which he probably won't. The way Mets fans deified non-entities like Xavier Nady makes me think a they'll go crazy having a legitimately great corner-outfielder for the first time in a long time
Trade Bobby Parnell and Wilmer Flores to the Rays for Carlos Peña--I don't understand why Mets fans think it is smart or even efficient to resign firstbase to being played by someone like Daniel Murphy, if we sign Matt Holliday. It's not like the Mets were just middle-of-the-pack offensively last year, they were bottom of the barrel. With the largest payroll in the National League, why not try and fill all the team's holes with at least players who are average or better at their position? The Rays are motivated to sell Peña, being in his walk-year and making $10.5MM. They have a few a infielders on their bench, who could start on most teams (Aybar, Rodriguez), so they'll be most interested in a cheap set-up caliber reliever. Parnell fits that description easily--he's still making league minimum and posted a 3.80 tRA in the bullpen his rookie season. Wilmer Flores makes up the difference in value; he's the kind of super-athletic shortstop prospect the Rays love to hoard. For the Mets, Pena solves the "not enough homers" problem; he tied Mark Teixeira for the AL homerun crown, despite missing nearly all of September with a fractured hand. He has elite plate-discipline and the batting average will probably rebound a bit. If healthy, Peña is also an above-average defender and could easily be worth 4 WAR over a full season.
Sign Rich Harden to a 1-year/$10 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for a second season--See the above link on Matt Holliday for why I also don't want John Lackey. The best way to not get locked into bad contracts is to not give them. A one year deal to Rich Harden is the type of gamble a team with the Mets payroll should take. He's injury prone, having pitched just 140 innings the last two seasons, but in just 140 innings he can be worth 4+ WAR. He was just 1.8 WAR this season according to fangraphs, but that was due to bad luck with homers, which is reflected by his xFIPs being extremely consistent from year-to-year. Any argument to sign Lackey instead of Harden proves how overrated past durability is with pitchers. Coupling Harden with a good above-replacement contingency plan(s) likely costs less than Lackey, is incredibly more valuable than Lackey, will likely provide more innings than Lackey, and doesn't carry the huge risk of giving an injury prone pitcher in his 30s a multi-year contract.
Trade Jeff Francoeur to the Cubs for Mike Fontenot.--The Cubs will eventually dump Milton Bradley, and will look to replace him with an "RBI-guy" in rightfield. RBI's are Jeff Francoeur's specialty. Mike Fontenot magically amassed 3 WAR in under 250 plate appearances in 2007. In 2008, the Cubs gave him more responsibility then leaned toward trading him when his batting average sunk. As mentioned in that article, they still view him as trade bait. With such high BABIPs in past seasons, his batting average will likely rebound. I'd bet his true skill is somewhere in between .296 wOBA player of last year, or the .395 wOBA player of the year before, maybe the league average hitter of 2006. Even if he is only an average hitter, though, his fantastic defense (9.6 UZR/150) will make him more valuable than Castillo. Having a good defensive secondbaseman will be even more important with the young groundball pitchers Pelfrey and Niese in the rotation next year.

The Minor Moves:

Sign Carl Pavano 1 year/$6 million dollar contract--Pavano will likely half to accept another short-term commitment, because of his surface numbers and lingering injury concerns, but he actually pitched quite well last season. His 4.00 FIP reflects all-around good peripherals, consistent with his career numbers. Citi Field might help suppress his high HR/FB%, and a move to the National League can only help his strikeouts. At 3.7 WAR last season, he would have easily been the most valuable pitcher on the Mets. He'll likely be the best value on the market, and would solidify a rotation with a lot injury risk.
Sign Kiko Calero 2 years/$5 million dollar contract--Calero quietly posted a 2.38 tRA this season. Here's a pretty good summary on his attractiveness as a free agent, if 2.38 didn't convince you. He would be a definite upgrade over Parnell. I see him signing with the team that offers a multi-year deal.
Sign Adam Everett 1 year/$1 million--Here, I want a player that can step in and start, without dragging the whole team down with his poor play, if Jose's injuries become complicated. His defense isn't what it used to be but it's still great.
Sign Greg Zaun 1 year/$800,000--I waffled on this, but Omir Santos needs to go back to the minors. He's a minor league player who can't hit anything but fastballs, and pitchers will make the adjustment eventually. Zaun provides plate discipline and defense that is negligibly worse than Santos' and somewhat better than Bengie Molina's. Thole may be an adventure in the field, but if it gets too bad, Zaun has the bat to be a starter, without costing Molina-money.
Sign Endy Chavez 1 year/$1.5 million--Our hero. He's like Adam Everett for the outfield! He'll be coming off surgery, so it probably would not even cost this much to sign him. Even if he's lost a step, he's eons better than Francoeur in the field, so much better suited for a bench role.
Sign Shawn Hill 1 year/$400K--He was recently released by the Padres, but he's got a 4.11 career FIP. He's injury prone, but keeping both him and Maine around is a pretty good insurance plan for an already filled-out rotation.
Sign Mike Sweeney 1 year/$600K--Sweeney got his PhD in fixing fractured, mutli-cultural clubhouses from the 2009 Mariners (not that those things are necessarily related, or exactly describe the Mets). Anyone who liked Francoeur for his attitude will love Sweeney. His skills as a right-handed platoon bat are redundant with Nick Evans also around, but he'd be brought in just as much for his intangibles than abilities.
Sign Kelvim Escobar to a 1 year contract with incentives/max value $2.5 million--The former Angels ace is on the recovery path and would add dimension to the pitching staff as a cheap, worthwhile gamble in the bullpen.
Trade Luis Castillo to the Royals for virtually nothing--I'd bet they'd take him. Getting rid of Castillo is a priority, as I think he is a huge risk to totally bust in 2010. His continuing diminished range caps his value at ~1.5 WAR, and indicates his knees really aren't getting any better. He compensated for the lack of speed last year by taking an absurd amount of pitches and hitting a career-high percentage of line drives. There's no reason to expect him to repeat either of those feats in 2010. Sell high.

Overall thoughts:

On the hitting side, the lineup has patience, power, speed, and contact skills without any obvious holes. Never watching that squad would I think, "here's Santos-Cora-Valdez, 1-2-3." The bench re-emphasizes defense, something severely lacking from last year's backups, and features all players good enough to start on some team, but who aren't expecting starting jobs. Of the 26 players listed, 8 could be considered rotation candidates, which gives flexibility on who makes the opening-day roster and in case of an injury, no Pat Misches or Livan Hernadezes have to start. There's no obviously crappy reliever who fits in under the guise of "long man" but has no other usefulness or upside. Most importantly, this roster allows the AAA class of prospects (Davis, Martinez, Mejia, and Holt) to stay in AAA as depth options or emergency trade candidates, in case Harden, Pavano, Maine, and Hill all blow out their elbows. I could see 95 wins, and with good health, the upside for much more. Now go wild with your own proposals.

Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Right Fielders

gondeee — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:36:15 -0000

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

The round table for center fielders in the Braves organization is after the jump.

MG: Should the Braves give the right field job to Jason Heyward before spring training, or should they take a wait and see approach and see how his spring training goes before giving him the job?
MG: I'm of two opinions on this. One, I really want to see Heyward make the jump to the bigs and become all he can be. I wanted to see it last year, and I sure as hell want to see it as soon as possible next year. On the other hand, with the lost time in the AFL he just might not be ready, and the last thing we need is to bring up our brightest young star since Chipper Jones before he's ready. I have this idea that assuming the Braves get a "good" left fielder, they should plan on starting Matt Diaz in right (despite the defensive drop), and let him play right until Heyward is ready. Diaz can then spell both corner outfield spots and pinch hit.
CBW: I don't think they should give him the job before Spring Training, or even after Spring Training. I think they should do exactly what they did with Tommy Hanson, let him play in AAA for two months, until he proves without a doubt that he's ready, and also happens to bypass the possibility of becoming a Super 2 in arbitration, before they call him up June 1st. This scenario certainly will make some folks upset, as it likely means you have to go with a lesser player in RF for a few months (though if that guy is Matty Diaz, that's not too bad) and of course you'll run into the problem that if he does finally come up and dominate there will be people coming out of the woodwork, maybe even teammates, saying that he should have been there from the outset. But, this isn't about what makes people happy, or even really about what makes the team better for the first few months of the year, this is about what's going to be best for Heyward and the Braves long-term. My argument with Tommy Hanson has been that without those two months of AAA at the start of the year, he wouldn't have been ready and able to play well from the outset of his Major League career, and I'm taking that same argument with Heyward. The kid is 20 years old and he can learn a ton from a couple of months in AAA, enough to make him an instant force when he does reach the bigs. And, because he'd be skipping out on being a Super 2, the team would have more money a few years down the line to put pieces around him. To me, this scenario is the one that makes the most sense, and I'm betting it's the one that actually happens.
DH: Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson—good example of both scenarios. People will complain about the necessity to breathe air if they could, so complaining about some baseball decisions should be a given, no matter the path taken with Jason Heyward. People were unhappy when the league and an injury caught up to Schafer. People were unhappy when Hanson came out of the gate strong and that he should have been called up sooner—seriously I'd never expected to see so many people upset at seeing a young stud being 5-0? I am 100% in the camp that Heyward starts in AAA, or I'm not even going to rule out AA, regardless of how absurd his numbers in Spring Training might be. I've often felt that ST is nowhere close to gouging talent as much as it is a bunch of guys getting their bodies in shape for the rigors of the season. Pitchers are still trying to regain full arm strength, and a lot of people are coping with the cold in the early parts of the regular season; Schafer, who is a notoriously hard-worker might've (obviously) been in much better conditioning shape in ST, and blew away Blanco and Anderson, and forced the org's hand, before his stumble. Gauge the talent in games that have meaning—start Heyward in the minors, let him prove himself, save the money, and call him up at a good point where the team could use the adrenaline shot. As CB mentions, if "being stuck" with Matt Diaz, is the result in RF, we could do, loads worse.
MF: A couple of weeks ago I might have said yes, just let him do it because it is the simplest solution to our OF problems and I don't think, even if he were to struggle that he would produce less than Frenchy did last year. That said, with his recent injuries, I'd like him to get some time in AAA just to get his bearings. The X-Factor in all of this is Bobby Cox, because Bobby loved the guy last ST, and if Heyward comes in and pounds the ball this year he may say he wants him in Atlanta.

MG: Does anyone think we'll keep Ryan Church around next year? I have a feeling the Braves will non-tender him. Should we keep him around? Is there any reason to? Doesn't Brandon Jones fill that role if Atlanta needs him to?
DH: The question I have is, are there any other teams who would want him? He can play all outfield positions, adequate with the bat, and has some patience. I'm not necessarily convinced that Brandon Jones could produce at the Major League level as Ryan Church could offensively, and I like Church defensively a lot more than Bjönes. I make no assurance to knowing exactly how the process works, but whether or not any other team really wants Church or not, I don't see any harm in floating him a minor-league deal, and see what happens.
CBW: Personally, I'm a huge fan of Ryan Church, and as inneffective as he seemed to be for the Braves, he was still a ridiculous upgrade over Jeff Francoeur. Seriously, check the stats again, Frenchy was that bad. But, I don't think I love him enough to see him make 3 millon dollars as a backup outfielder. He's a smooth outfielder with the ability to play all three positions and he's got enough double power to see him being useful off the bench, where the fact that he swings from the left side is a huge plus, but that's a lot of money when the Braves need to bring in a real slugger, and I just don't see being able to tie it up. Also, Church seems to be hitting a huge downswing, possibly caused by injuries. Now, I don't neccessarily think Brandon Jones is the answer either, cause I don't think he'd be effective as a bench player, but there are any number of guys that could be signed as a free agent, even a minor league free agent, to come in and be a worthwhile backup outfielder. If they can non-tender Church and re-sign him to a Minor League deal, one that has a much cheaper salary for him should he make the team, I'd love to see him back.
MF: I think if we don't plan on bringing up Heyward as our opening day RF then keeping Church makes a lot of sense. Last year the reason why we didn't have a winning record in the first half of the season is because our entire OF was putting up sub .700 OPS. If we get the same production from the guys we have now whether it be Heyward or Church in RF and Diaz and McLouth (or even Schafer) in the other spots, I don't think we will get any guys putting up sub .700 OPS. If that happens we could be battling with the Phillies for the division lead. The real question is whether we want to pay Church or not, and if we do pay him his Arb raise, will we be able to move him when Heyward is ready.

MG: After Heyward I don't have a lot of faith in any of the Braves right field options. I went with Daniel Falcon as my number-2 RF prospect because at this point he has the most upside.
CBW: But really, after Heyward, what else do you need? When you've got a guy who could be a once in a generation star it's hard to expect the team to have much else at the same position. The fact that we have Cody Johnson and Adam Milligan in left field (as well as Robby Hefflinger, who I think is goig to be right with those two this time next year) and lesser, but still interesting prospects like Cory Harrilchak and Kyle Rose in center field, makes me think Atlanta's minor league outfield situation is pretty great. I don't think much of Falcon, or Anthony Feliz. In doing the writeup, I had a hard time finding much positive to say about them. Even if they both went to Rome in 2010 and had outstanding seasons, they'd still be a little old for me to be too excited about it. Heck, Falcon is the same age as Luis Sumoza, and Felix is older, and even though he had a down year, at least he's dominated short season ball, something neither of them have done. Chris Shehan is a decent player, and he might be able to rebound, but he's older and at best I really see him as a platoon/backup player. All of this makes me wonder why you guys were so willing to discount Jon Mark Owings. He had a bad year, but that was pretty much entirely due to the partially torn rotator cuff he suffered last year in the Carolina League playoffs. Ernesto Mejia didn't have a great year and only played in 36 games, but we had him 3rd on our 1B list. If you look at their 08 seasons in Myrtle Beach, they're pretty close, and while JMO loses some for being a year older than Ernie, he also isn't a complete defensive liability, in fact, he's an excellent outfielder. JMO is probably a better prospect than Shehan, Falcon, or Feliz, and maybe even better than Sumoza.
MF: CB's point is valid, just like what I was saying in the last roundtable. So what if our depth isn't great if we have a RF for the next 6 years? I'm not saying you don't need depth, but its not nearly as important when you don't have many glaring holes in the majors for the next couple of years. Concepcion Rodriguez played this season as a 22 year old in AA which is fine by me if you are looking for a backup OF. Sure he was pretty bad for most of the season, but he wasn't fall off the map bad and he was playing in Mississippi which can kill hitters. I will say I am not a fan of anyone else on the list really. Sumoza still has a chance, but he really needs to start harnessing his tools.

MG: To me, Luis Sumoza has fallen out of prospect status.
CBW: I guess it all depends on your definition of prospect status. He certainly wasn't considered for the Top 25 anymore, that's for sure, but I don't think he's done as a player or anything. He's only going to be 21 going into next year, so there's plenty of time for him to get better and this is the first time since his first go-round in the US (as a 17 year old) that he's struggled. The fact that he had trouble taking a walk is a huge concern and the massive amount of outfiled errors make me wonder how bad he really is in the field, but there are things to like. Even with the poor season, 28 is a ton of doubles to hit, and he's got a little bit of speed. I don't think he's a big time prospect, but I didn't really think that when we got him, and he's going to have to repeat Rome and prove something, but I'm betting he has a much better 2010.
MF: He still needs to walk more and he needs to tap into his raw power. It is all there, but he is becoming more of a tease than a real prospect in my eyes. I give him one more year.

MG: You guys seem to think pretty highly of Concepcion Rodriguez... why?
CBW: Well, he's a pretty prototypical outfield athlete and he had a great 2008, so there was some good reason to be excited about him coming into the year. And, frankly, he's fun to watch play. He's a natural athlete and he just looks smooth. I'd never see him becoming a star outfielder, but he could become a pretty good one, something like a David DeJesus. Once you look at his splits, you see that the biggest problem he had this year was dealing with Mississippi's park. It victimized a number of guys and made their years' look terrible; he hit .229 with a .534 OPS at home, compared to . 295 and a .753 OPS on the road. That's just a sign that he's not as bad as his totals make him look. (For reference about just how good Jason Heyward is, Mississippi's park didn't affect him at all; on the road for Mississippi he hit .342 with a 1.062 OPS compared to a .360 average and 1.055 OPS at home. Wow.)
MF: Why not? When compared to everyone else on this list he is the most advanced guy we have not named Heyward and he posted an .800+ OPS in 2008 in a league with an average .712. Ok his 2009 was pretty bad, but he was still only about 50 pts below the league average OPS and it was his first run through AA. I'm not saying this guy will ever be an every day RF for anyone, but I think he has the best shot out of the guys we have. He probably needs to walk some more and he needs to find that power that Mississippi took from him this year. And I would also like to point out that his OPS on the road this season was .752 which is about the league AVG in the southern league. We aren't looking at a star here, but he will be just 23 next season which is far from the end of the road for a prospect in the upper minors.

Braves Top-5 Minor League Right Fielders

cbwilk — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 13:00:21 -0000

Jason Heyward was named the top prospect in baseball by Baseball America and will enter the 2010 season as a 20 year old.

View full size photo »

It wasn't long ago that the Braves felt they were set for years with Jeff Francoeur in right field. But declining and outright poor performances by him over the last few years finally caused the team to cut ties in the middle of the 2009 season, forcing them to play Matt Diaz out of position in right field for the remainder of the year. While this transition has been unsettling, right field looks to be locked up again for the forseeable future very soon, as the top prospect in all of baseball looks poised to claim the starting job at some point in the 2010 season.

1. Jason Heyward B/T: L/L Born: 8/9/1989 Ht: 6'4" Wt: 220

What's not to love about Jason Heyward? Even before he grabs a bat or puts on a glove, you can simply marvel at his sheer size. He's blessed with a massive, strong frame, oozing with athleticism. Defensively, he's able to cover an outstanding amout of ground in right field, enough that he hasn't been overmatched the few times he's played centerfield in his career. Combined with his absolute laser beam of an arm, Heyward is a game winning force on defense alone. But then he steps up to the plate, where he not only has immense power, but and advanced idea of hitting that allows him to hit for average and take walks, making him an OPS machine. Add in a burgeoning knack for stealing bases, and he's showing himself to be a true five tool prospect, or, at worst, a four and a half tool prospect.

Over the years, many prospects overflowing with tools like Heyward have been unable to put up statistics to match their potential. That's not a prblem for him though, as he followed up an outstanding 2008 season that saw him put up a .316 average and .854 OPS, along with 29 doubles, 11 homre runs, 15 stolen bases, and 9 outfield assists, playing mostly for Rome, with a pheomenal 2009, split almost evenly between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi with a handful of games for Gwinnet, where he hit .323 with a .963 OPS to go with 25 doubles, 17 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and 14 outfield assists.

What's more impressive about those number is that he was able to put them up in 28 fewer games than in 2008, which leads to the only real knock on Heyward so far, that he seems prone to nagging injuries. He was forced to miss stretches of time with Myrtle Beach for minor oblique and leg injuries and was just forced to prematurely end his run in the Arizona Fall League due to an upper leg injury. Whether or not this is a trend or simply a fluke, perhaps created by his still growing body, remains to be seen, but if this is the only chink in his armor, it's a minor one, and it actually makes his production even more impressive when you consider that he might never have been fully healthy this season.

Heyward will enter 2010 as a 20 year old, not turning 21 until August. There are many who want to see him begin the season as Atlanta's starting right fielder, with just 52 games of experience above A ball on his resume. While it's possible, in fact likely, that Heyward could put up an outstanding Spring Training and force the Braves to make this hope a reality, it's more likely, given his age, experience, and the financial realities of baseball, that the Braves start him out at AAA Gwinnett like they did with Tommy Hanson, allowing him to dominate and hone his game, before calling him up June 1st, after he's avoided the possibility of reaching Super Two status down the line.

2. Concepcion Rodriguez B/T: R/R Born: 9/19/1986 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 170

After an impressive 2008 season spent mostly with Myrtle Beach that saw him hit .278 with a .806 OPS to go with 28 doubles, 14 home runs, and 10 stolen bases, Rodriguez looked poised to assert himself as a top prospect as a 22 year old with Mississippi in 2009. But, like Travis Jones and Brandon Hicks, he saw his power evaporate this season, mostly due to his home ballpark, and put up a total line with a .263 average, .651 OPS, 19 doubles, just 3 home runs, and 9 stolen bases. Like Jones and Hicks, he suffered from a slight drop in his number of doubles, but saw his number of home runs plummet. In 209 home plate appearances he was terrible, hitting just .229 with an awful .534 OPS, but looked like himself on the road, where in 225 plate appearances he hit .295 with a .753 OPS.

Rodriguez is a fine defender, blessed with the combination of enough speed and an above average enough arm to make him capable of playing all three outfield positions. He did so in 2008, playing 30 games in center field, 39 in left field, and 40 in right field, but he settled into right field for most of 2009, playing the majority of his games, 72, there.

With his wild splits, it's hard to judge Rodriguez's season. He's obviously not as bad as the total numbers, or the home numbers, would indicate, but they still show that he needs to work on keeping the ball down and hitting it in the gaps. While he does have a strong, athletic body, he's never going to be a big time home run hitter in the Majors, so this is certainly a lesson worth having him learn. The best place for him to do so is probably right in Mississippi's park, which has supplanted Myrtle Beach as the most unforgiving to hitters in the system, so look for Rodriguez to return to AA to start 2010, with a promotion to AAA likely if he's able to master his home park.

3. Luis Sumoza B/T: R/R Born: 7/15/1988 Ht: 6'0" Wt: 170

Sumoza is one of only a few players on the Talking Chop prospect lists who wasn't originally signed by Atlanta, having been acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for Mark Kotsay. It seemed like a great acquisition at the time, as Sumoza was having a fine year for short season Lowell (basically the equivalent of Danville), hitting .301 with a .915 OPS, including 15 doubles, 11 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 51 games. But, playing this season mostly as a 20 year old, Sumoza wasn't able to repeat his success, putting up a .271 average and .681 OPS for Rome in 494 plate appearances, along with a very poor showing in 40 plate appearances for Myrtle Beach, hitting just .189 with a .466 OPS. He was able to club out 27 doubles for Rome this year, but he also proved weak at taking a walk, complining just a .316 on base percentage for the team. He also found stealing bases more difficult, swiping just 8 while being caught 11 times on the season.

While he's played a little bit of center field in his career, Sumoza has settled better into right field, where his speed fits better and he's able to make use of his above average arm, which allowed him to collect 13 outfield assists this season. But, he's also shown himself to be a bit of a butcher in the field, as evidence by his 11 errors this season. While his arm is certainly well suited for right field, his defensive short comings create huge offensive opportunities for the opponet, so it's likely that he'll shift over to left field as he moves up the ladder.

Of course, that move is predicated on Sumoza finding himself at the plate again. He'll enter next season as a 21 year old, so if he's forced to repeat with Rome he'll be a little too old to garner a lot of excitement as a prospect, but it also means he's still young enough to hope he turns things around. He has a strong, thick body capable of producing power, so if he can make better contact and take more walks, he could develop into another high risk/high reward outfield prospect.

4. Chris Shehan B/T: R/R Born: 5/5/1987 Ht: 6'0" Wt: 205

After being drafted in the 30th round in 2008, Shehan had a more than solid debut, spent mostly with Danville, where he hit .281 with a .776 OPS along with 12 doubles, 4 triples, 5 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 283 plate appearances as a 21 year old. His full season debut was less successful however, as his numbers fell to a .253 average and .660 OPS with 24 doubles, just 3 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 382 plate appearances. Oddly enough he was actually better at the higher level this season, posting a .261 average and .683 OPS along with 15 of his doubles in 144 plate appearances for Myrtle Beach, compared to a .248 average and .644 OPS in 238 plate appearances for Rome. While his season numbers certainly suffered as he lacked the home run power that he seemed capable of, what really hurt him was an inabilty to work walks, as he posted just a .302 on base percentage for the season.

Shehan has shown himself capable of covering all three outfield positions, and he actually played more games in center field this season, 41, than he did in left field, 26, or right field, 36. But, because he's a little thicker than the average center fielder, and a little slower, he profiles better at one of the corner spots. His arm is slightly above average, and he was able to rack up 8 outfield assists this season, but, like Sumoza, he was also befallen by a propensity to make errors, with a total of 14 this year. So while he is a solid enough outfielder, he isn't a superb one.

He will turn 23 a month into the 2010 season, so Shehan really needs to get things moving quickly if he hopes to keep himself from becoming an afterthought in the Braves system. He'll likely return to Myrtle Beach to start the year, and will need to get his walks up and his power back to assert himself into the Braves plans.

T5. Daniel Falcon B/T: R/R Born: 12/27/1988 Ht: 6'1" Wt: 220

After playing for the Braves team in his native Dominican Republic, where he complied a .275 average and .784 OPS along with 23 doubles, 15 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and 138 strikeouts in 545 plate appearances over three seasons, Feliz made his American debut for the Orlando Braves in the GCL with a .257 average and .680 OPS in 156 plate appearances. Again, the strikeouts plagued him, as he whiffed 42 times, good for nearly one a game.

He split his time pretty evenly between the corner outfield spots, playing 22 games in right field and 20 in left field, racking up 4 outfield assists and 2 errors on the season. But, defense isn't going to be what gets him to the Majors, or keeps him from there, it's his offense. Falcon will enter next season as a 21 year old, so it's time for him to get his career moving. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and take more walks, his .288 on base percentage this season was just unacceptable, if he wants to move up the ladder.

T5. Anthony Feliz B/T: R/R Born: 10/7/1987 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 195

2009 was Feliz's second year playing for the Orlando Braves inthe GCL and he put up strkingly similar numbers to the previous one. In 148 plate appearances in 2008, he hit .278 with a .679 OPS, including 9 doubles, 2 home runs, and 6 stolen bases, and in 154 plate appearances in 2009, he hit .261 with a .704 OPS including 9 doubles, 2 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. His improvement in OPS stemmed from hitting two triples this season, compared to none last year, and a dramatic increase in walks, from just 1 in 2008 to 8 this year.

Feliz spent the vast majority of his time in right field this season, gaining 6 outfield assists and 4 errors in 41 games. Like Falcon, his defense is neither good enough to make him a Major Leauger, or bad enough to prevent him from becoming one; his offense is what needs work. Feliz will enter next season as a 22 year old and the minimal progression he showed this year compared to last, though his improvment in walks was very impessive, leave little indication that he's likely to rise very high in Atlanta's Minor League stystem.

Non-Tender Candidate: Jeff Francoeur

James Kannengieser — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:00:25 -0000

When Jeff Francoeur was traded to the Mets, I figured he would play out the season and be non-tendered. A massive disappointment for his hometown Braves, this is a player who was one of the top 5 least valuable players in all of baseball in 2008. At the time of the trade, he was on his way to another sub-replacement level season. The previous 2 sentences are the main reasons why I was so befuddled by the effusive praise for the trade by the mainstream media, bloggers and my Met fan friends. How did people not realize just how bad a player he had been for a significant period of his career? Did the memory of a Sports Illustrated cover and a 1.21 gigawatt smile sufficiently hide the glaring warts on his game?

Naturally, Francoeur proceeded to perform well for the Mets, posting a decent .311/.338/.498 line. Combine production with an infectious personality and we're looking at a new fan favorite. Of course, his plate discipline remained terrible. He swung at a greater percentage of pitches out of the strike zone than any other Met and had the worst unintentional walk rate of his career. Sustaining a high batting average with such awful peripherals is a tough task. However, Francoeur has posted a BABIP in the .340 range in 2 other seasons (2005 and 2007), so who am I to say his .343 Mets BABIP is unsustainable?

His Fangraphs WAR with the Mets was just 0.4, but that seems a little low because of a seemingly fluky -8.6 UZR in just half a season. Another defensive measure, Plus/Minus, pegged his full season defense at +8. Considering these 2 measures have agreed on Francoeur's defense in the past, and the questions about UZR reliability for outfielders at Citi Field, a WAR of about 1.0 seems more likely. Extend to a full season and it's ~2.0 WAR, roughly league average. This kind of production would be acceptable given his expected salary, but counting on that kind of performance from such an unpredictable player would be silly.

Francoeur is still under team control, meaning it is not necessary to give him anything more than a 1 year contract in order to secure his services for 2010. Despite this, bizarre talk of an extension popped up towards the end of the season. The supposed benefit would be to buy out the arbitration years of a budding superstar. One problem: Mr. French hasn't shown any signs of adjusting his approach at the plate or becoming a star. Teams buy out arbitration years of players like Brian McCann, Cole Hamels and David Wright (also known as "good players").

Verdict: Bring him back next season but do not even think about an extension. Small sample size infatuation is a problem with the Mets' front office (see Daniel Murphy, Omir Santos), and if you have the opportunity to go year-to-year on a question mark like Francoeur, you take it. If arbitration* is necessary, hopefully the arbiter isn't as enamored with Frenchy's intangibles and fashion sense as most of the Mets fanbase is. A salary of $4-5 million seems likely. This is a player we can't easily project (although we can try), and there is a real risk he reverts to his disastrous 2006, 2008 or first half of 2009 form. Additionally, do not pencil him in as the definitive right field starter. Angel Pagan had an outstanding 2009 and has also earned the right to be considered for significant playing time, either as a starter or in some sort of platoon role.

* - For a fictional look at Francoeur's arbitration hearing last offseason, check out this classic Joe Posnanski post.