SB Nation - Scott Thorman

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Adam LaRoche

gondeee — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:00:24 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Adam LaRoche should be the guy manning first base for the Atlanta Braves next season.

Some of this will be a bit of a rehashing of a post I did earlier this week that was mainly about Adam LaRoche, but much of it is worth repeating. The Braves shocked quite a few people (including LaRcohe) when they re-acquired him at the trade deadline this year, and many people questioned the move, but it worked out pretty well for Atlanta. Here is a comparison of LaRoche's stats with Atlanta and Casey Kotchman's stats with Atlanta:

Player	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Casey Kotchman	87	6	41	.282	.354	.409
Adam LaRoche	57	12	40	.325	.401	.557

Quite an improvement, and I don't think it's any coincidence that the Braves made their run after he arrived and our production out of first base elevated to above league average. LaRoche is a key component to our offense. During his time this year with Pittsburgh, Boston, and Atlanta, when LaRoche hit well the team won. His OPS in team victories in 2009 was 1.089 and in team losses it was .595 -- quite a disparity. The biggest difference between wins and losses was his slugging percentage -- twice as good in wins (.655) as in losses (.325). This is much more of a stark difference than we see with Kotchman (.790 OPS in wins, .642 in losses). This split for LaRoche indicates that his power is a game changing commodity.

LaRoche is certainly the kind of first baseman that the Braves need in their lineup. It would be wonderful to call up Freddie Freeman and have him come close to the numbers that LaRoche put up, but let's not rush him and create another Scott Thorman. The Braves need LaRoche back and they should make re-signing him their first priority this off-season. Freeman only turned 20 this year, so if the Braves were to offer LaRoche a three-year deal, the young Freeman would still be young by the time that deal was over. He would be just 23 when he would be expected to become a starter in 2012. By signing LaRoche we don't rush Freeman, giving him ample time to develop, and if someone else comes along in the interim (RSF), then we have tradeable pieces, or we could trade LaRoche if Freeman proves ready in the next two years.

With LaRoche we know what we're going to get. A guy who hits 25 homeruns a year, drives in about 83 runners, hits about .275, gets on base at a .350 clip, and slugs at around the .480 mark. With only minor deviations that what he's done each of the last three years, with the notable exception that he does remarkably better when he's wearing a Braves uniform.

The bottom line is that we should not be afraid to re-sign LaRoche to a multi-year deal. He is not the cleanup hitter we seek, but he is a necessary complimentary piece in the middle of playoff lineup. Building a better offense for next season starts with him.

Coming up tomorrow, the top-5 minor league first basemen in the Braves system, and a first baseman's round table between the bloggers here at Talking Chop.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 13:50:28 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Hey, Willie Randolph! Remember when you used to manage the Mets? That was cool.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while your agent rants about Saved By The Bell.

The Brewers make their first visit to Citi Field tonight, opening a three game series against the Mets. It's also Willie Randolph's first game against the Mets since being fired as their manager last season.

It's also the first opportunity for R.J. Swindle to make his Brewer debut. Swindle was called up yesterday when David Riske was placed on the DL (h/t FanShot) with some "tightness" in his elbow. The folks over at Beyond the Box Score are pretty excited to see him.

Another former Brewer may make an unexpected appearance this weekend: Nelson Figueroa had his minor league start cut short yesterday, leading to speculation that he'll replace Mike Pelfrey in the Mets' rotation on Sunday. Pelfrey has been trying to pitch through forearm tendinitis.

Mark DiFelice hasn't cracked the Brewers' starting rotation yet, but he likely will before the season is out, so Keep Turning Up The Heat has beaten the rush to sponsor his B-Ref page.

What do you do next after being replaced in AAA by Joe Koshansky? Scott Thorman is playing first base in Oklahoma City and trying to get a fresh start with the Rangers organization.

Elsewhere across the league:

Angels: Vlad Guerrero is out indefinitely with a strained pectoral muscle.
Dodgers: Doug Mientkiewicz will be placed on the DL with a separated shoulder.
Mariners: Kenji Johjima has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Marlins: Cody Ross set the fight against smokeless tobacco back by a decade after an empty tin of Skoal protected him from getting hit by a pitch.
Padres: Walter Silva may miss his scheduled start Sunday with a bruised forearm.
Royals: Alex Gordon was diagnosed with torn cartilage in his hip and will require surgery that could keep him out for months.

Some people just haven't experienced good grit: DRaysBay discusses the adjustment period involved in watching Gabe Kapler play.

Did the Reds look half-hearted to you this week? Ken Rosenthal has a quote from a source saying the Reds aren't playing hard this spring. They'll need to go all out tonight against Roy Oswalt and the Astros: Oswalt has posted a 23-1 record against the Reds in his career.

Looking to do some analysis today? Purple Row has an in-depth look at salaries in baseball and Brooks Baseball has a great new Pitchf/x tool. (h/t Driveline Mechanics for the second one.)

Oh, and there are still plenty of great seats available in Pittsburgh.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:48:46 -0000

Some things to read while not watching soccer.

So, a quick stroll through Rumorville this morning revealed that there's renewed buzz around Mike Cameron, with the Yankees once again rumored to be seeking his services. Tom H. says nothing is imminent right now. Hopefully that'll be the end of it.

Of course, it's also possible Melvin has been too busy to answer the phone: Yesterday he was unable to work out a trade so Eduardo Morlan has been returned to the Rays. (Also noted in FanShot)

He also had to evaluate new Brewer Wes Littleton, who pitched a 1-2-3 inning in his debut. He's probably not the first Brewer to say something like this about his new surroundings:

As for those familiar faces, there were non-roster outfielder Jason Bourgeois and pitcher Sam Narron, who have neighboring lockers and were once teammates of Littleton in the Rangers' farm system.

Or he could just be holding his breath as Ryan Braun tests out his sore intercostal muscle to see if he can take batting practice and/or play in the WBC semifinals. The Brewers get to make the final call, so don't be surprised if Braun is held out.

This one probably didn't take too much time, but I'd assume there was also some paperwork involved in returning Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Lucroy and Scott Thorman to minor league camp.

Melvin may not have had time to talk to Ken Macha about his decision to try Jason Kendall in the leadoff spot. (Also noted in FanShot) Yes, Kendall takes some pitches and will draw a walk, but Two-Fisted Slopper notes that Weeks actually did both of those things better than Kendall in 2008. The Book blog has another conversation starter on whether any of this matters all that much.

Also, further down in that Journal Sentinel story is a note on Tony Gwynn, who is expected to play in the field for the first time on Saturday. Don't read too much into it, but there may be a note in there about who Macha likes among his outfield candidates:

The other thing is there are two (reserve) outfield spots. You've got four guys there: Nelson, (Trot) Nixon and the other two guys.

Speaking of Nixon, thanks to TheJay for spotting this note on his number change:

Former Tribe outfielder Trot Nixon has an uphill fight to make the Brewers' roster and thought he needed an edge.

Nixon wore No. 3 on the back of his uniform then abruptly changed to 93.

"I'm just trying to shake things up," he said.

Visual evidence of yesterday's game:

A ball snuck through the infield while J.J. Hardy was working on his belly flop.
Mike Cameron and a guy who should really put a shirt on both chase a fly ball - Cameron wins.
Cameron also did his best to break up a double play.
Was Prince Fielder congratulating Corey Hart for yet another spring training home run, or for reaching first base on his knees? We may never know.

After a tumultuous few seasons, it sounds like things have finally settled down in Nashville, with the Sounds getting new ownership and spending $2.5 million renovating Greer Stadium with the hopes of repairing a relationship with the city and fans that has been allowed to deteriorate.

Elsewhere in the minors, former Brewer Callix Crabbe and current farmhands Zelous Wheeler and Maverick Lasker are among the 64 players invited to MLB.com's Moniker Madness tournament.

In other camps:

Dodgers: Released Yhency Brazoban.
Giants: Are reportedly in the market for a backup catcher and relief pitching.
Indians: Former top prospect Adam Miller may require surgery to regain movement in his right middle finger, and could miss the entire 2009 season.
Mets: Have reportedly made an offer to Pedro Martinez.
White Sox: May be scouring the trade market looking for a proven center fielder.

Could the Brewers lose a divisional rival in Arizona? Jealous of new facilities built for the White Sox and Dodgers, the Cubs are threatening to leave Mesa if the city doesn't improve HoHoKam park. Sarasota, Florida is being named as an option.

Of course, when you train in Arizona you get spoiled sometimes, with so many things you don't have to worry about anymore. The Rays training complex in Florida, for example, has wild boars roaming the facility at night.

Being generous is a good thing. Forcing generosity onto others is a different problem: Apparently the Dodgers have decided that all new contracts must include a donation to the Dodgers Dream Foundation. Frank McCourt has set himself up for a bunch of $1 donations.

Last year, the Padres were bad. This year, the Padres may also be bad, but Geoff Young says they'll at least be bad in an interesting way.

Oh, and if you're lobbying at the Capitol and you want to have any kind of success, you probably shouldn't snatch wallets while you're there.

Drink up.

Twenty-two guys, four spots - Who's on your roster?

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 21:00:09 -0000

So, with Braden Looper in the fold, we know most, if not all of the following:

Barring a trade, Jason Kendall, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Corey Hart will all be on the opening day roster, likely in starting roles.
Ditto for Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan.
In the bullpen, Trevor Hoffman, Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske are virtually guaranteed spots. One more will almost certainly belong to a lefty, either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle.
Craig Counsell, Mike Lamb and Mike Rivera are all back and very likely to be on the opening day roster in bench roles.

Given all of those assumptions, 21 of the 25 opening day roster spots are already decided. So what's left?

In the bullpen, two or three spots remain for all of the following players:

Todd Coffey. He still hasn't allowed a run as a Brewer and signed a major league contract to avoid arbitration. He's out of options.
Jorge Julio. Signed to a major league contract, making just under $1 million plus incentives.
Either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle - whichever doesn't win the LOOGY job listed above. Throwing left-handed increases both pitchers' value, but Stetter posted a 3.20 ERA as a Brewer last season and Swindle posted a 1.98 ERA in AAA last season, so both guys already have some value.
Eduardo Morlan. Rule 5 pick has to be offered back to the Rays if he doesn't make the roster.
Mark DiFelice. 1.50 ERA in his last 14 outings as a Brewer (18 innings). Could be sent back to Nashville to work as a starter, but the Nashville rotation may already be full with Narveson, Gulin, Narron, Wright, and eventually Capuano.
Tim Dillard. Likely to be returned to AAA just because he has options remaining.
Joe Bateman, Luis Pena, Ramiro Mendoza, Omar Aguilar, Chris Narveson, Lindsay Gulin, Sam Narron and Chase Wright. Thanks for coming, guys. The eight of you and two or three of the guys above will likely pitch most of the innings for a nice staff in Nashville.

The Brewers could opt to go with a 13 man pitching staff and keep three of those guys, but then they'd have just one bench spot left. Instead, they'll likely keep 12 pitchers and pick two position players from the following list:

Tony Gwynn, Jr. Out of options, Gwynn either has to make the opening day roster or be exposed to waivers. However, he'll have to prove he's better than his .248/.300/.298 career MLB line and .243/.286/.286 major league equivalent from 2008, or he won't have much value. Also, his defense doesn't project well enough to help his chances: CHONE has him 11 runs below average in center.
Chris Duffy. Likely Gwynn's primary competition for the backup center field spot, Duffy's offensive numbers aren't earth-shattering (.269/.328/.361 in his major league career), but he's a plus defender (UZR/150 has him 6.2 runs above average in center).
Jason Bourgeois. Will likely have to win a spot as an outfielder, with Counsell and Lamb both occupying backup infield spots. Bourgeois hit .342/.404/.429 in Mexico this winter, but FanGraphs' 3 projections all have his 2009 OBP under .343.
Hernan Iribarren. Likely hurt by playing the exact same set of defensive positions as Bourgeois. Hernan also had a nice winter, hitting .306/.388/.451 in Venezuela and detonating two indisputables. Projections are similar, if not a little worse, than Bourgeois'. Likely a long shot to make the roster in the first place, he's hurt even more by having an identical player in camp with him.
Trot Nixon. If the Brewers go with 13 pitchers, Nixon and all the others below this point are already eliminated, as the last bench spot would have to go to someone who can play center. As a story, Nixon is very similar to Gabe Kapler at this point last year, but Kapler was three years younger.
Brad Nelson. He'll have to prove he can play a corner outfield spot to have much value, as Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell already have the infield covered. Likely has a higher long-term upside than Nixon if he's not a defensive liability, which he very well may be.
Casey McGehee. The Brewers insist they're eager to see what he can do, but unless he unseats Mike Lamb to platoon with Bill Hall, it's hard to imagine him making the roster. He has caught a little in the minors (including 17 games in 2008), so he could provide some value as a third catcher, but has never played the outfield, so if Lamb and Counsell are in, he's likely out.
Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome. Unless the opportunity for one of them to play full time arises, all three are likely ticketed for Nashville, where they can continue to develop their skills.
Scott Thorman, Vinny Rottino and all of the extra catchers invited to camp. Again, thanks for coming, guys. Enjoy the improved post-game food while you can.

So, assuming everyone stays healthy, four of the 22 players listed above can make the opening day roster. Who do you want, and why? Also, if you were building this roster, would you keep 12 pitchers or 13? Discuss.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:20:54 -0000

Some things to read while reacting to Russell Branyan's departure.

Pitchers and catchers report in 72 days...or so.

I'll open today with Russell Branyan, since I already mentioned him. As noted in the FanShots, Branyan is a Mariner now. The Yost Infection has a list of their favorite Branyan moments. Lookout Landing notes the difference between new and old Mariner management, and Bucs Dugout notes that Branyan chose the M's over the Pirates. Instead, the Pirates may have to settle for Derrick Turnbow. (noted in FanShots)

While Russell Branyan looks for ways to spend his $1.4 million, Ben Sheets appears ready to turn down arbitration to go out and pursue a multi-year deal. As I write this, 70% of voters are ok with the Brewers offering Sheets the contract I outlined here.

I'm not entirely sure I get it, but Kerry Whisnant of Dugout Central says Sheets and the Brewer defense combined to give the team a projected winning percentage of .549 in his starts. Follow the link to see where CC Sabathia, Manny Parra, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan rank.

Meanwhile, Beyond the Box Score wants to teach bloggers how to be more Saber-Friendly. In their first installment, they take a look at BABIP. The news is good for Manny Parra, but not as good for Dave Bush.

Every time I see a story like this, I feel like Doug Melvin is doing a good job: The Giants are reportedly interested in acquiring J.J. Hardy to play third base, but haven't made a good enough offer to pry baseball's best defensive shortstop away from Milwaukee.

MiLB.com continues to release their top 50 prospect list ten at a time. 21-30 came out yesterday, with Mat Gamel checking in at #23.

Of course, not everyone in the minor leagues is a prospect. Transaction Oracle takes a look at new Brewer Scott Thorman's 2009 MLB projections. ZiPS gives him an 82 OPS+ at first base, and a 35% chance of even reaching replacement level.

All the enjoyment of coaching Scott Thorman and the rest of the 2009 Nashville Sounds will go to former Brewer and Huntsville Stars manager Don Money, the biggest name in yesterday's announcement of 2009 coaching staffs. Others of note:

Former Brewer Chris Bosio will be the pitching coach in Nashville.
Bob Miscik is the new manager at Huntsville.
Former short-term Brewer Matt Erickson will be the hitting coach for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.

On the hot stove:

A's: Signed P Kevin Cameron and 1B Tagg Bozied.
Braves: Will reportedly be the first team (and perhaps the only team) to offer a five year deal to A.J. Burnett. They also signed C David Ross and are not interested in Adam Dunn.
Cardinals: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire Khalil Greene from the Padres. Terms are unknown, but it's believed the Cardinals are sending a pitching prospect to San Diego. The team also finalized their deal with Trever Miller.
Cubs: Re-signed Chad Fox for 2009.
Dodgers: May be a potential suitor for Trevor Hoffman.
Giants: Signed Bob Howry to a one year deal, may be looking to trade for Jorge Cantu and could sign Edgar Renteria this week.
Mets: Signed former Brewer Nelson Figueroa and three others to minor league deals.
Red Sox: Bought three arbitration seasons and the first three seasons of free agency from Dustin Pedroia for $40.5 million.

So some free agency time has passed, and it's passed pretty quietly for Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell, among others. Rob Neyer asks if the time has passed for all-bat, no-glove corner outfielders.

Oh, and all those empty beer cans and liquor bottles in your garage may have a use after all.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:31:08 -0000

Some things to read while watching out for giant inflatable bears.

If you're wondering where today's Winter League Update went, there isn't one. Everyone was off yesterday. The Update will be back tomorrow.

There are 74 more days until pitchers and catchers report, but only four more to vote in the BCB Reader Survey. Please take a moment to do so, if you haven't already.

As noted below, the Brewers offered arbitration to CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse yesterday, but declined to offer it to Eric Gagne. If Sabathia or Sheets sign with another team, the Brewers get one of thier draft picks (either in the bottom half of the first round or the top of the second), and a pick between the first and second rounds. If Shouse signs with another team, the Brewers just get a pick between the first and second rounds. Gagne is free to sign with anyone, no compensation required.

Also, as noted in the FanShots, the Brewers signed former Braves 1B Scott Thorman to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. Barring some sort of emergency, he likely won't appear above AAA in 2009.

Are you craving more CC Sabathia links? Rob Neyer wonders if Sabathia's weight and the New York media's tendencies to make fun of overweight athletes might make the Yankees a bad fit for the 290 lb lefty. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons is suggesting the Angels may court him by taking him to Del Taco.

Now, a moment to focus on Jason Kendall's defense. Beyond the Box Score says he saved 4.86 runs this season by blocking pitches, the third most in all of baseball. Kendall's actual block percentage is lower than a handful of other catchers, but Kendall saved more runs based on increased opportunity.

Via Rattler Radio, I noticed that MILB.com has started their Top 50 prospects list, and Jeremy Jeffress is #44. There's a joke here about being high on Jeffress, but I'll pass. Prospects 31-40 are due out today.

This year's Hall of Fame voters will see the smallest ballot ever, with only 23 players eligible for induction. Among ten first time candidates are former Brewers Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac and Greg Vaughn.

Lots of arbitration news, and some other stuff on the hot stove today:

Angels: Offered arbitration to Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera, Darren Oliver and Jon Garland, but not Garret Anderson.
Astros: Signed Mike Hampton to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Offered arbitration to A.J. Burnett but not Gregg Zaun.
Braves: Declined to offer arbitration to John Smoltz.
Cardinals: Declined to offer arbitration to Russ Springer, Braden Looper and Jason Isringhausen.
Cubs: Declined to offer arbitration to Kerry Wood.
D-Backs: Offered arbitration to Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but not to Adam Dunn or Randy Johnson.
Dodgers: Offered arbitration to Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake but declined to offer it to Joe Beimel, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny and Jeff Kent.
Giants: Declined to offer arbitration to Rich Aurilia.
Marlins: Declined to offer arbitration to Luis Gonzalez, Paul Lo Duca and Arthur Rhodes. They may also be looking to trade Matt Treanor.
Mets: Offered arbitration to Oliver Perez but not Luis Ayala or Moises Alou. They also signed C Rene Rivera.
Padres: Declined to offer arbitration to Trevor Hoffman.
Phillies: Declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer. They also expressed interest in Mark Loretta.
Rangers: Offered arbitration to Milton Bradley.
Reds: Offered arbitration to David Weathers and extended an offer to Arthur Rhodes.
Rockies: Offered arbitration to Brian Fuentes.
Royals: Offered arbitration to Mark Grudzielanek.
Tigers: Declined to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria.
Twins: Offered arbitration to Dennys Reyes.
White Sox: Offered arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, but not to Ken Griffey, Toby Hall or Juan Uribe.
Yankees: Declined to offer arbitration to all eight of their free agents, including Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Chad Moeller.

If you want to check my work or see all this information nicely color coded, Amazin' Avenue has you covered.

Also, the Hanshin Tigers have reportedly agreed to a deal with Kevin Mench.

On a sad note, Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers has passed away. He was 75.

Fire Brand of the American League recently interviewed Peter Gammons, and of course they asked him what he thinks of blogs. His response is moderately incoherent and rambles off onto a tangent, but I think it's possible he likes blogs...maybe?

Oh, and it took Kirbir and I, working together, an hour and a half to beat this game yesterday. Can you do better? I never would have gotten out of the bathroom without her.

Drink up.

The Braves Minor League Free Agents

gondeee — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 16:52:00 -0000

Via Baseball America, here are the minor league free agents for the Braves this off-season:

Atlanta Braves (16)
RHP: Paul Bush (AA), Brian Lawrence (AAA), Gonzalo Lopez (Hi A), Ferdin Tejeda (Hi A)
LHP: Bryan Dumesnil (AA), Damian Moss (AAA), Royce Ring (AAA), Carlos Rivas (Hi A), Jonathon Rouwenhorst (AAA), Carlos Sencion (AA)
C: Jason Phillips (AAA), Ray Serrano (AAA)
1B: Scott Thorman (AAA)
3B: Enrique Cruz (AAA), Wes Timmons (AAA)
SS: Javier Guzman (AA)

No one to really shed a tear over here. It is strange seeing Thorman up there, as there were some high hopes for him just a couple of years ago. I still wish him luck if he can go somewhere else and get back to the majors and find some degree of Wes Helmsian success.

The real question is, how many of these guys will be signed by the Royals. I think the over/under is five.