SB Nation - Rafael Soriano

The Braves Were Right to Offer Soriano Arbitration

Tommy Bennett — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:40:48 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Tommy "Blogger on a Mission" Rancel has already done a nice write-up of the Soriano trade, but I wanted to look back at the decision that started the chain of events leading to the trade. The Braves decided to offer arbitration to both of their Type A free agent relievers: Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Before either player decided whether or not to accept, the Braves signed free agents Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito for a combined $10 million plus the compensation pick they will surrender to the Red Sox.

Mike Gonzalez declined the Braves' offer of arbitration, meaning the Braves are likely to recoup at least one draft pick. But Soriano surprised the Braves--and many fans--by accepting the Braves' offer. Some went so far as to say that the decision to offer arbitration to their departing free agents had blown up in their faces. Many see the return the Braves got on Soriano from the Rays (N*SYNC member reliever Jesse Chavez, acquired earlier this offseason from the Pirates for Akinori Iwamura) as evidence that the Braves were over a barrel and had to trade Soriano for pennies on the dollar.

The relevant question isn't whether the Braves got pennies on the dollar. It's whether they'd rather have pennies or nothing.

Last week, I formulated my theory of the arbitration offer. Here's the relevant bit:

[A] team should offer arbitration if the probability a player accepts arbitration times the expected surplus he offers (which can be negative) plus the probability the player does not accept (assuming he does not retire) times the value of the draft picks received is greater than zero.

I'm sure the Braves thought the probability of Soriano accepting arbitration was very low (I certainly did). And they likely thought, given their history of success in scouting and player development, the value of the draft picks received would be high. But here's the thing: even if the draft picks were basically worthless and Soriano was a near-lock to accept their offer, it would still have been a good decision to offer him arbitration.

To see why, we have to ask what the expected surplus was if Soriano were to accept. We have some evidence of that now, in the form of Jesse Chavez. The value Chavez represents is slightly different from the expected surplus the Braves could have expected from the ex ante perspective, but it is a good estimate.

CHONE projects Chavez as a one run pitcher, which is about as close as you can come to replacement level without actually hitting it (which is important if you're playing by Price is Right rules). Bill James has him pegged for a 4.29 FIP in 72 IP, which is probably closer to two runs above replacement. After checking my calculations, I can confirm that neither valuation is less than or equal to zero runs.

So let's balance the arbitration equation. On the one hand, the Braves could have offered arbitration to Soriano, which in the worst case scenario, would have netted them a run or two, and in the best case scenario would have scored them two top-50 draft picks in the 2010 draft. Or, they could decline to offer him arbitration and get bupkis. This is the kind of decision that is so mind-numbingly simple that it's easy to forget that teams mess it up all the time.

Now, I'm not entirely sure Soriano did the wrong thing by accepting. There's an argument to be made that, because of his Type A status, he would have gotten less money (and certainly a lower AAV) on the open market than he did by accepting arbitration (the Rays will pay him $7MM next year). But it should be very plain that not all decisions are zero sum. That Soriano accepted arbitration didn't hurt the Braves in any way except in relation to the world in which he declined and signed with another team. It certainly didn't hurt them relative to the world where they failed to offer him arbitration at all.

Braves at the Winter Meetings... Wha' Happened?

gondeee — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:02:29 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox was one of the main attractions when he gave a pres conference at the Winter Meetings.

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It was such a tumultuous few days, some of us may have forgotten what exactly the Braves did and got out of baseball's Winter Meetings. Here's a recap:

Rumors coming into the meetings had Rafael Soriano "leaning" towards accepting the Braves offer of salary arbitration, instead of declining like he should and netting the Braves 2 draft picks.
Those rumors increased once folks got to Indianapolis.
We had a fun first-day rumor about Yankees reliever Brian Bruney possibly heading to the Braves, but he ended up going to the Nats.
The Braves had interest in Nats outfielder Josh Willingham, but the Nats weren't willing to part with him.
There has been a lot of interest on the trade front in Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson, but nothing else was mentioned after that first day.
After a night of sheer agony and waiting, Soriano finally set the rumors right and accepted arbitration from the Braves.
Because of that decision, the Braves had to DFA Ryan Church, whom they still have not traded (nor likely will).
Like clockwork, Soriano's agent asks the Braves for a trade, thusly skirting the free agent compensation system.
There was some rumored interest by the Braves in free agent Xavier Nady.
But the trading of surplus pitching dollars was top priority over anything else, and our Meeting's were seemingly put on hold until the Soriano situation could be resolved.
Finally, in the middle of the night, we learned that Rafael had been moved to the Rays for a mighty return of... Jesse Chavez.
As if the Braves had not been slighted enough during the meetings, they lost promising lefty Edgar Osuna in the Rule 5 draft to none other than the Royals.

The Soriano trade is not yet official, the two sides are apparently awaiting the medical files or pending physicals to consummate the deal. Tampa Bay got a steal of a closer for next season at a reasonable $7 million-plus. A condition of the deal was that the Rays agree in principal to sign Soriano before the deal was complete.

The good news for the Braves is that we apparently don't have to send any money to the Rays, and thus the whole Soriano Surprise was just an unpleasant distraction that netted us a durable middle reliever for our bullpen next year. Jesse Chavez won't blow anyone's socks off, but in a pen where Cox likes to run people out there day after day, Chavez seems to be a guy that can be abused in that way. He's also a childhood friend of Jo-Jo Reyes, and was good friends with Nate McLouth when they were teammates with the Pirates.

The Soriano Surprise may have been a sour point for some fans, but the original thinking was that the team would not offer him arbitration, and it was only a few days before the deadline that we learned they would. Wren knew the risks, and instead of not offering him arbitration and ending up with nothing, they rolled the dice and ended up with a serviceable and affordable major league middle reliever. As weird as that is, I'd call it a win. Especially since we likely needed another middle bullpen guy like Chavez anyway.

Osuna was not a huge loss in the Rule 5, and the Braves usually do one of the best jobs of any organization of scouting their own players, so while he has talent, the Braves obviously thought more of some of the other guys they protected.

We have to believe that the main goal accomplished at the Meetings for the Braves was to lay the groundwork for a future trade of Derek Lowe. They should know the full market by now, and whether they need to wait until after Lackey signs or not. Hopefully we'll see some movement on one of those fronts soon, and hopefully he can bring back some sort of more valuable return than a Jesse Chavez, though to clear payroll, I may be willing to accept such a return if it means we can sign a bat.

Rays & Braves Agree In Principal To Rafael Soriano Trade

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:20:33 -0000

Taking a quick timeout from other happenings, I get to cover a move near and dear to my heart. Somewhere between going to bed and waking up this morning, the Rays have all but completed a trade with the Braves that will bring Rafael Soriano to the Rays in exchange for Jesse Chavez. At post time the deal is pending medical approval and no money is expected to change hands.

Soriano looked like he was headed to the top of the free agent relief crop after posting stellar numbers as the Braves part-time closer. He finished the season with a sub 3 ERA as well as a sub 3 xFIP. His 3.43 FIP also shows his above-average-ness. Bolstered by a 93 mph fastball, and a 10 mile separation to his slider, Soriano's K/9 skyrocketed to 12.13 in 2009. Going forward he is more likely to settle around his career number of 9.87, but that's also impressive.

All this good stuff made Soriano a Type-A free agent. The Braves offered arbitration assuming he would decline and they would collect two draft picks. He doesn't throw much of a curveball, so I guess he tossed the Braves a slider when he turned around and accepted arbitration after the Braves had already handed out over $10 million dollars for 2010 to Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Soriano granted permission to the Braves to seek a trade and that's what they did.

Braves fans may be disappointed in the return of Jesse Chavez as vision of Reid Brignac danced in some of their heads. However, like the situation the Rays were with Akinori Iwamura when they acquired Chavez, the Braves didn't have much leverage. Chavez is a decent return. He is cheap, has a live arm, and is due for some regression in the home run category that plagued him (I did some work on Chavez/HR here).

With the back end of the Braves pen settled, Chavez gives them a middle relief option that can pitch multiple innings and on back to back days if needed. He also comes with minor league options. In addition to Chavez, the club can take the $7+ million Soriano is set to make in 2010 and spread that elsewhere.

For the Rays, it's hard not to like this deal. I do think Soriano will end up being just a bit overpaid, but not by much. He's unlikely to repeat his 2 WAR of 2009, but should definitely be in 1.25-1.5 area. This puts his estimated value somewhere in between $6-$7 million. As part of terms to complete the trade, Ken Rosenthal reports the Rays agreed to a one-year deal with the reliever for just at or above $7 million.

He is a legit sub 4 FIP pitcher and scouts think his stuff will translate in the American League. He'll probably see some regression in the K/9 category (12.13 in 09, 9.87 career), but hopefully in the BB/9 (3.21 in 09, 2.81 career) as well. If he settles in the 3.5-3.75 FIP, I think the Rays would take that.

Soriano will also quiet the mainstream media's calls for the Rays needing a closer. Thanks to nice platoon split on both sides, he should be in the closing mix on most nights regardless of match up. For his career, he has killed righties to the tune of .168/.236/.284, but handles lefties as well .235/.303/.404. However, with J.P Howell available, the Rays could try and replicate the model Atlanta used at the end of games with Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. Soriano misses a lot of bats with a contact rate well below 80% and can strand runners with the best of them as evident in his 79.1% career LOB%.

Despite possibly carrying the title of closer, Soriano stands a chance of not even being the Rays best reliever. Once again, I expect that honor to go to Howell, who has put up slighly better numbers than Soriano over the past two seasons in the league's toughest division. Add in Grant Balfour and the Rays have a nifty back-end of the bullpen.

Bringing the right-handed Fuego to Howell's left-handed ice, Soriano will be a very good pick up for the Rays even if Stu Sternberg needed a bailout to finance his acquisition.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays to Sign Rafael Soriano for "$7M or Slightly Above"

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:16:53 -0000

From Ken Rosenthal:

Ken_Rosenthal

TB will sign Soriano for one year at 7M or slightly above. Deal will be official after usual exchange of medical records, etc.

That's a lot of money.

MLB Trade Rumors: Rafael Soriano and Brandon Lyon= 2010 Closers?

raygu — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:00:30 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

2 days ago: FILE - In this March 15, 2009, file photo, Atlanta Braves pitcher Rafael Soriano throws to a Houston Astros batter during a spring training baseball game in Kissimmee, Fla. Soriano made a surprise decision a on Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, to accept salary arbitration. The Braves last week signed closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito. The expectation was Soriano and Mike Gonzalez would decline salary arbitration offers and become free agents. Instead, Soriano is still with Braves and can't be traded prior to June 16 without his consent. (AP Photo/Rob Carr, File)

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Well, it appears the Rays and Astros have new closers for 2010. The Rays have traded reliever Jesse Chavez to the Braves for closer Rafael Soriano.

In addition, the Astros have signed Tigers reliever Brandon Lyon, after closer Jose Valverde elected to decline arbitration and losing out on signing LaTroy Hawkins. They also traded some prospects to the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom. I presume that Lyon will be the Astros closer in 2010 as he signed a 3-year $15 million deal with the 'Stros. But, I would draft Lindstrom as well, as Lyon is not the most consistent closer. Then again, Lindstrom's 2009 season was downright terrible.

Lindstrom saved 15 games in 2009, with an ERA of 5.89 and a WHIP of 1.64. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.64, walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings, and an extremely low LOB% OF 62%. Lyon, on the other hand, had a very solid 2009 season going 6-5 with 3 saves, a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

Lyon has never been a big strikeout pitcher as he had a 6.5 K/9 ratio, and a 3.5 BB/9 ratio. What worries me about Lyon is he had a extremely low BABIP of .229 and an extremely high LOB% of 80%. Should these ratios regress to his career averages of .305 BABIP and 71% LOB, his ERA and WHIP will suffer, and the blown saves will accumulate. Remember he lost his closer job in 2008 with the Diamondbacks by blowing several saves late in the season as the DBacks were battling for the NL West division title.

But the big question is, where is elsewhere for Valverde and Mike Gonzalez? In the National League, there are few choices-maybe the Phillies, or the Marlins if they want an upgrade at closer, or the Nationals, but they have prospect Drew Storen who is close to ready.

Poll

Can Brandon Lyon duplicate his 2009 season with the Astros in 2010?

Brandon Lyon Nears Deal With Astros, Bullpen Options Dwindling

Eric Simon — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

"Whoo Bessy. $15 million smackeroos!" (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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There goes another semi-attractive free agent pitcher, as Brandon Lyon is apparently close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros worth $15 million. It's way too much money for Lyon, a competent reliever who is effective against both lefties and righties. Lyon's upside is probably about a win above replacement, and while he'll nicely fill the hole left by the departing LaTroy Hawkins, $5 million a year is just crazy. Then again, Hawkins just signed a two-year deal with the similarly-daft Brewers worth $7.5 million, so I guess madness can only be measured relatively.

This is all good news for Mike Gonzalez, who is a much better pitcher than either Lyon or Hawkins -- and is a lefty to boot -- though his injury history is more troubling than the other two. Gonzalez's agent -- a Mr. Scott Boras -- will doubtless be using Lyon's deal with Houston as a jumping-off point in negotiations with other clubs. I don't know that the Mets are in the market for a big-ticket reliever, though I certainly don't care to see them spend $18 million over three years for Gonzalez plus forfeit a high draft pick to Atlanta in the process. Payback for Tom Glavine's defection two years ago, to be sure.

The two best free agent relievers -- Rafaels Soriano and Betancourt -- both accepted their former clubs' offers of salary arbitration, so consider them off the market for now. The Braves are fielding offers on Soriano, who has given the team permission to trade him, but don't expect him to end up on the Mets. Soriano made $6.1 million and could see a bump to $9 million or more in 2010. That's a lot of money, though the cost is mitigated somewhat by the fact that it would only be a one-year deal and that Soriano, if healthy, is a safe bet to be a Type-A free agent again next year. I'm not sure Atlanta would even consider trading him to New York, though it may be a moot point anyway as it looks like he's on his way to Tampa Bay.

Kiko Calero is the most attractive free agent reliever still available, and his price tag comes without the added encumbrance of draft pick compensation, which is not something you can say about Jose Valverde. Beyond those two you've got the likes of Russ Springer, J.J. Putz, and Chan Ho Park, the latter of which might actually be the most appealing of the three. At all events, the list of available -- and moderately attractive -- free agent relievers is now rail-thin, so anyone in the market for one should act fast or risk winding up with Luis Ayala et al.

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Braves' Reliever Soriano Traded To Rays

cbwilk — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:16:03 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Rafael Soriano will be pointing to the roof in St. Petersburg instead of the sky in Atlanta.

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The Atlanta Braves have traded right handed reliever Rafael Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays. The deal is pending Soriano passing a physical. The releiver put the Braves in a tough spot when he unexpectedly accepted their offer of arbitration, which was offered with the belief that he would leave as a free agent and they would be compensated with two high draft picks.

The deal isn't official yet, but it is rumored that the return for Soriano is fellow right handed reliever Jesse Chavez, who appeared in 73 games for the Pirates in 2009, collecting a 1-4 record, 4.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. If he is all the Braves are able to recieve in return for their 2009 closer this situation will have been a major loss for the organization, as Chavez isn't a lock to make the team and he certainly doesn't have the value of a late 1st round pick and a supplemental draft pick.

UPDATE: Soriano has agreed to a one year, non-guarnateed contract for around 7 million with the Rays, which was part of the contingency for this deal to go through. Additionally, Chavez, who Tampa Bay aquired recently in exchange for 2B Aki Iwamura, is the player the Braves will receive in return for Soriano.

A one year, non-guaranteed contract? How rough was the free agent market to Soriano? Brandon Lyon got three guaranteed years from the Tigers and he's not really as good as Soriano, definitely doesn't have the electric arm that the Dominican does. It seems like Soriano and his agent were betting that there will be more money available next year in free agency, but if he blows him arm out again not only will he not get money next offseason, he won't get money during 2010. Strange stuff.

Tampa Bay Rays Deal Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:01:54 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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After a full day of speculation, we finally reach resolution. Jon Paul Morosi is reporting the Rays will trade Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. In effect, the Rays will deal the ghost of Akinori Iwamura for Rafael Soriano, barring anything else being added to the deal.

As for Chavez, well, we barely knew ‘ya Jesse. Take care in Atlanta. He's a decent get for Atlanta considering they held little leverage in this situation. Almost the opposite of the original deal that landed Chavez with the Rays.

Now, for Soriano.

Let's start from the top.

Soriano will turn 30-years-old on December 19^th. He signed with the Seattle Mariners as an amateur free agent in 1996 and made his Major League debut on May 10^th, 2002. On December 7^th, 2006, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Horacio Ramirez. For his career, he's pitched 332.2 innings, struck out 365, and walked 104. All told, he has a career FIP of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.65. Soriano was eligible for free agency this season, however he decided to accept arbitration rather than testing the market, and gave the Braves permission to trade him immediately afterwards.

He throws your garden variety power closer pitches. A 92-94 MPH fastball that reaches 96, a slider that sits in the low-80s, and -- in the rarest of instances - a low-80s change-up. His fastball produced a 12.1% whiff rate last season while his slider sat at 16.4%. For comparison, J.P. Howell's curve generated 19.5% empty swings, which is to say Soriano's stuff is filthy. Soriano is a career fly ball pitcher, which isn't desirable, but when you pack the heat he does, pitching up in the zone without getting slammed is an acceptable way of life.

Soriano isn't without his questions either. He has missed most of three seasons since 2004, including 2008 most recently with a mixture of injuries - some shoulder soreness, a groin strain, and a side strain. He's also dealt with a concussion, oblique strains, and Tommy John surgery. The exact costs in which he'll require are unknown as well. Yes, there's a strong chance he will repeat as a Type-A free agent next off-season, but as the Braves found out this year, that isn't always a guarantee; especially with non-elite free agent relievers.

So how good is he?

Over his last three healthy seasons (2009-6, minus 2008) he's posted FIP of 2.54, 4.17, and 3.43. Obviously a repeat of 2009 would be fantastic, but also unlikely. Of those, 3.43 is almost exactly in the middle and probably what most people will go off. If you apply the 5-3-2 weighing to his last three healthy seasons FIP you get an average of 3.2. Add in another 2 for league average adjustment - note: this is seriously just a league average reliever, so this projection is actually a bit more conservative than it could be - and you get 3.39 - or basically J.P. Howell's 2008, which is great.

League adjustment is going to be something I feel we'll discuss a lot. Scouts think he has the stuff to succeed in baseball's toughest division - and I would agree - and based on his previous AL seasons in the bullpen it would seem like he can step right in and post a sub-4 FIP, but those seasons were a long time ago and while they aren't 100% irrelevant, they shouldn't be weighed nowhere near as much as the most recent seasons. Below is a list of 2009 relievers who came from the National League and how they fared in at least 40 innings worth. This is FIP and xFIP so as to neutralize whether it was luck or worse pitching:

Pitcher	2008 xFIP	2008 FIP	2009 xFIP	2009 FIP	xFIP Net	FIP Net
Wuertz	4.35	4.3	2.61	2.37	-1.74	-1.93
Springer	4.32	3.51	4.62	4.06	0.3	0.55
Lyon	4.1	3.84	4.24	4.06	0.14	0.22
Wood	3.07	2.32	4.11	4.15	1.04	1.83
Saito	2.98	2	4.86	4.25	1.88	2.25
Fuentes	3.05	2.24	4.94	4.42	1.89	2.18
Cruz	4	3.62	5.52	4.92	1.52	1.3
Nelson	3.58	3.45	5.36	5.65	1.78	2.2

That's a small sample size, but the average shift in FIP is about 1. Soriano is a better pitcher than quite a few of those on the list, so let's say he only feels a little bit of the change and posts a FIP around 3.7. That would be Howell's 2009 season all over again, which is good. If Soriano pitched like that on last year's club, he would've given the Rays three relief pitchers under 3.8 FIP. The Yankees had four; the Red Sox two; and the Blue Jays three.

How's this for coincidence. The Rays have Howell, who's entry we've taken to calling chill time. Well, as best as I can find, Soriano enters to a song called Fuego - Spanish for fire.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays/Atlanta Braves Could Finalize Rafael Soriano Trade Thursday Morning

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:13:53 -0000

This Tweet from David O'Brien of the AJC:

Sounds like Braves-Rays could finalize a Rafael Soriano deal as soon as tomorrow morning.

There's not much else to add at this point. No names have been mentioned as a return and last I heard (which was hours ago, mind you) other teams were still talking to Atlanta. If it happens, we'll analyze the specifics then. Don't get too hyped up about this, but also realize the Rays could very well be on the verge of adding a good reliever without giving up a first round pick.

Let's take this time to address Milton Bradley as well.

There's nothing new on that front. There hasn't been anything new in months. The Cubs have tried and tried again to bluff the Rays into jumping on a deal or roping another team into the proceedings and nothing has worked. The ol' ‘mystery team' card was successful, if you also consider aiming for India and hitting America a successful voyage and well ... hey, history books do. Good going Cubs, this is the first thing you've done worthy of a parade in over a century.