SB Nation - Kip Wells

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Reds Have Some Work to Do with the 40-man Roster

Slyde — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:28:28 -0000

Travis Wood (Photo by BubbaFan)

View full size photo »

When the season ended, the Reds had a full 40-man roster plus 4 players on the 60-day DL who did not count toward the 40-man roster. In the next couple of weeks those 4 players (Mike Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar) will lose their 60-day status and will have to be moved back to the 40-man or put through waivers. As far as I can tell, the only player on the roster who is a straight up free agent at the end of the season is Kip Wells. The only contract option the Reds have to consider this off-season is Ramon Hernandez's $8.5 million option, which one would think will be turned down. So, that opens up 2 roster spots, likely for Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln (since the Reds still owe him $2.5 million). Every other player appears to be under contract or under control because of Major League service time So, what do they do with the remaining two players, Castillo and Richar?

Before we figure that out, let's throw another wrench into the mess: The Rule 5 Draft. The Reds have several players in the minors who could be available for the Rule 5 Draft in December if they are not protected on the 40-man roster before the end of November. According to Wikipedia, here are the rules for eligibility:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Basically, this means that any players that were drafted or signed at the age of 19 or older in 2006 are eligible for the draft, and anyone younger than that must have been signed in 2005 or earlier. Who does that give us?

Well, the list of eligible players in the organization is actually quite long, but not every player is at risk of being drafted because of their skill or performance (remember, rule 5 draftees have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season). Some of the names though are obvious keepers. Chris Heisey, Chris Valaika, and Travis Wood will likely be protected because of their prospect status. There are a couple of other names that could potentially get drafted if the Reds don't protect them as well. Someone like Daniel Dorn may have enough pop in his bat to sit on a team's bench all year as a left-handed pinch hitter. Enerio Del Rosario moved up 3 levels last year and posted a 1.68 ERA for the season. He's not really a power pitcher, which is typically the type of pitcher that gets drafted in the rule 5, but his control was outstanding last year and that may draw some eyes his way.

The Reds can't protect everyone, so they are going to have to make some choices. There is little doubt for me that they will find spots for Heisey, Valaika, and Wood. The question is, do they hold on to Castillo and Richar? Will they feel it necessary to protect any other minor leaguers such as Dorn or Del Rosario? And who do they drop? I'll put the 40-man roster after the jump. Let's hear who you think should stay and who should clear out some space.

**Reds Current 40-man roster**
Bronson Arroyo Homer Bailey Bill Bray Jared Burton Francisco Cordero Johnny Cueto Carlos Fisher Aaron Harang Daniel Ray Herrera Sam LeCure Justin Lehr	Mike Lincoln Matt Maloney Nick Masset Micah Owings Ramon Ramirez Arthur Rhodes Daryl Thompson Pedro Viola Edinson Volquez Kip Wells# Wilkin Castillo **	Ryan Hanigan Ramon Hernandez # Corky Miller Craig Tatum Yonder Alonso Kevin Barker Juan Francisco Paul Janish Brandon Phillips Danny Richar ** Scott Rolen	Adam Rosales Drew Sutton Joey Votto Wladimir Balentien Jay Bruce Chris Dickerson Jonny Gomes Darnell McDonald Laynce Nix Drew Stubbs Willy Taveras

#-Free Agent; **-60-day DL

That's a mistranslation of the Bible. Jesus actually wore a Carpenter jersey. Reds lose 13-0.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:44:14 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Laugh it up, chucklehead. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Chris Carpenter. Not only did Carpenter pitch five innings of shutout ball, not only did he allow a mere three hits, not only did he strike out six, but he also went 2-3 with 6 RBI, including a grand slam. Albert who?!

Key Plays

Kip Wells pitched a scoreless first inning.
Chris Carpenter hit a grand slam in the second. That's about as key a play as there is. When you give up a home run to the pitcher, it's bad. When it's his first home run of his career, it's bad. When it's with the bases loaded, it's bad.
Kip Wells gave up five runs, Micah Owings gave up four runs, Carlos Fisher gave up three runs, and li'l Danny Ray Herrera only gave up the one.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

After some whinging by the Cardinals after their loss last night, a beanball fest seemed inevitable. Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco got plunked for the good guys, while Kip Wells hit Brendan Ryan, one of the few Cardinals not hitting Kip Wells.
The last Cardinals pitcher to hit a grand slam was Kent Mercker in 1998.
The Reds only had five hits, but Adam Rosales had two of them. Their only extra base hit came courtesy of Micah Owings.
El Nino Destructor has a .500 OBP. Sustainability, schmustainability, that's just fun!
Chris Carpenter is really good when it comes to facing the Reds. Entering this game, he had a 0.846 WHIP against them, the second lowest of any team he's faced more than once. And now, it's a little bit closer to the 0.838 he has against Tampa Bay.

Reds lay four eggs in Denver. That's a helluva omelet. Cincinnati loses, 5-1.

Brendanukkah — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 00:17:04 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

The Giambornstar. -or- "We Greeks invented democracy!" "Yeah, and you also invented homos!" (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

View full size photo »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Juan Rincon. After starter Jose Contreras left the game after only three innings, Rincon pitched three innings of scoreless relief, giving up only two hits, striking out five and earning the win. Former Red Matt Belisle pitched the final two innings, giving up only one hit.

Key Plays

The Reds got off to a promising start. Paul Janish got a one-out walk in the first, and consecutive singles by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips brought him around to score. Jonny Gomes then walked, loading the bases. But the lineup's biggest weakness - an abundance of strikeout artists and a lack of RBI men - came to haunt us as Wladimir Balentien and Adam Rosales struck out to end the threat.
In the third inning, Votto hit a double, and one out later, Gomes hit a single to put runners on the corners. Once again, Balentien and Rosales struck out.
The Rockies didn't seem to have a problem bringing in their baserunners. Clint Barmes singled to start the bottom half of the third, but Jonny Gomes threw him out trying to stretch it into a double. Jose Contreras grounded out (and strained his quadricep), and Kip Wells was one out away from being in the clear. But Eric Young, Jr. bunted for a hit and then stole second. Dusty pointed excitedly and insisted that was what he wanted when he got a Colorado centerfielder. Carlos Gonzalez walked, then Seth Smith hit an RBI single. Jason Giambi smashed a ball to centerfield that made Drew Stubbs look foolish and drove in two more runs with a double. Then Garrett Atkins smashed a two-run homer. Five runs in one inning, and that was all Colorado needed.
Jhoulys Chacin relieved the injured Contreras. You may not believe this, but he is the first player named Jhoulys to play in the majors.
Drew Stubbs somewhat made up for his miscue on Giambi's ball in the third inning by stealing a home run from him in the eighth.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Jose Contreras does not have a hit in the majors in 32 regular season plate appearances. He pitched in two World Series games, but one was in an AL stadium, and the other was a relief appearance and he was pinch hit for.
Balentien and Rosales both struck out three times. Rosales has 43 strikeouts and 19 RBI, and Balentien has 65 strikeouts and 21 RBI. Clearly, those numbers need to be reversed.
This was Ramon Ramirez's first appearance since May 21.
It was Joey Votto's 26th birthday. And he smells like one too!
Colorado finished the season a perfect 7-0 against Cincinnati. That's part of the reason they're now only two games behind the Dodgers, despite starting the season 18-28. Since firing Clint Hurdle, they've gone 63-32 under Jim Tracy. That's damned impressive.
Eric Young, Jr. stole two bases, the first two of his career.

Final - 9.10.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	0
Colorado Rockies	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	X	5	7	0
WP: Juan Rincon (3 - 2) LP: Kip Wells (1 - 4)

Complete Coverage >

Rockies ride five run third inning to seventh straight win, but Jose Contreras joins list of injured.

Rox Girl — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:55:14 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Jose Contreras pitched well with the Rockies, but his stay already seems in jeopardy after he strained his right quadriceps while batting on Thursday.

Browse more photos »

The Colorado Rockies rallied to score five runs with two outs off of Kip Wells in the third inning on Thursday afternoon and wound up beating the Cincinnati Reds, 5-1 and improve to 81-60 on the season. With the win, the Rockies draw within two games of the idle Dodgers and move 4.5 games ahead of San Francisco in the NL wild-card chase. The Rockies dominated three of the National Leagues trailing teams during their just completed homestand, finishing 9-1, including sweeps over Cincinnati and Arizona.

After Clint Barmes singled but was thrown out by Jonny Gomes trying to stretch the hit into a double, and Jose Contreras strained his right quadriceps while running to first on a groundball to shortstop, the next five Rockies reached base safely, culminating with Garrett Atkins two run home run before Brad Hawpe broke the string. Eric Young Jr. started the rally with a bunt single and stole second for the second time in the game. Carlos Gonzalez walked and was moved to third when Seth Smith singled in Young on a hanging change-up from Reds starter Wells. Both Gonzalez and Smith scored when Reds center fielder Drew Stubbs couldn't quite catch up to a deep fly ball by Jason Giambi, a missed opportunity to get out of the inning that would get exacerbated moments later when Garrett Atkins launched his ninth homerun of the season.

Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Rincon and Matt Belisle picked up for Contreras by keeping the Reds scoreless for six innings after he left, with Rincon pitching three shutout innings and striking out five to earn the win. With several starters (Contreras, Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez) going through injury issues, keeping up the winning ways on the nine game road trip that the Rockies start tomorrow night in San Diego might prove difficult, but the Rockies have built themselves a buffer over their wild card competition with the strong homestand.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Red hot Cincy in town to close homestand

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:00:22 -0000

If the Rockies want an 8-2 homestand, they'll need to at least win a series against a very hot team. You want optimism for reaching that? Then know that the Rockies draw the ~~exact three starting Reds pitchers~~ they faced and swept on the road five weeks ago. PLUS KIP WELLS. UPDATE: Justin Lehr suffered a strained groin and will be replaced by Matt Maloney. Maloney and Homer Bailey swap days.

So there's optimism and then there's reality. The starting pitching for Cincinnati has started to perform far better, and with that, so have their results in the W column. Cincinnati has won seven straight and and 12 of 14 with their extra innings win yesterday. They did Colorado a favor by sweeping the Braves on the road this last weekend - and allowing just 4 runs in the series, though both losses in the 14-game streak came against the Dodgers (thanks a lot...).

In other words, the Rockies are the hottest team in the majors. In 7 of 8 games, the Reds have held their opponents to three or less runs. They will also have a mind for revenge after the Rockies swept them five weeks ago. Basically, have the Reds turned a corner to be legitimate threats, or will the Rockies expose their "cute little streak" as a farce? I project the latter, with the Rockies taking the series on the way to a satisfying 8-2 homestand.

Red Reporter is the Reds SBNation blog, if you're interested.

Cincinnati Reds (63-73, W7, 5th, 18 GB Div)

Monday-Thursday: 4-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: F

Only the Giants have had a worse team wOBA than the Reds this season, and only the Giants have had a worse team batting average. That should tell you all you need to know. The aforementioned NL West offenses represent the only two clubs with less runs scored than Cincy, they trail only the Padres in SLG and just the Giants and Royals in OBP. They have experienced a lot of turnover in their lineup, but in truth, the replacements aren't helping much at all. The top two in their lineup have been terrible all year, although several different players have filled those spots. Rookies Paul Janish and Drew Stubbs now frequent the top of the lineup:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Drew Stubbs - CF	.253	4	7	.280	.430	.309
Paul Janish - SS	.220	1	13	.303	.304	.276
Joey Votto - 1B	.304	21	67	.395	.538	.397
Brandon Phillips - 2B	.276	19	67	.333	.464	.343
Scott Rolen - 3B	.313	9	51	.369	.458	.359
Jonny Gomes - RF	.285	17	43	.357	.566	.391
Wladimir Balentein - LF	.232	6	21	.301	.382	.299
Corky Miller - C	.180	0	7	.286	.230	.246

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features two hitters performing at strong All-Star levels (Votto and Gomes) though neither have been starters all year, two above average hitters (Rolen and Phillips), one below average hitter (Stubbs), and three hitters who should theoretically be easily replaces (Janish, Balentein and Miller).

Colorado native Darnell McDonald (.234, 1, 6) is listed as the lone reserve outfielder, while Craig Tatum (.161, 1, 6) has been almost splitting time with Miller behind the dish. Adam Rosales (.200, 4, 19), Drew Sutton (.163, 1, 5) and Kevin Barker (7-for-19, 2B) are backup infielders.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: D+

Check out Cincinnati's starters on Statcorner. It's a big red mess. Their staff ERA is a respectable 4.33, but their staff Fangraphs value is 5th worst in MLB, 3rd worst among rotations. Their starting staff has more talent than that though, and lately, they've been showing it, so I'll give their grade an extra boost.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Francisco Cordero	2-4	59	0	0	0	33	2	58.1	49	15	14	2	27	52	2.16	1.30

Daniel Ray Herrerra, Pedro Viola and Arthur Rhodes are Dusty Baker's left-handed options out of the pen. Jared Burton, Nick Masset, Micah Owings, and Ramon Ramirez (no not that one) come at you from the right side of the bullpen. Herrerra, Owings and Ramirez are below average via StatCorner, though Owings might not make the trip after being hit by a pitch. The rest of the pen is solid, led by Cordero, who had five saves last week.

The D: C+

The Reds are ranked 4th in UZR/150 while also making the 82 errors, a 5-way tie for 16th-least in MLB. Fangraphs says they are the 7th best defense, though team stats aren't helpful with all their turnover. Janish and Phillips are plus fielders via Fangraphs, but the rest of the starting lineup has not been noteworthy this season.

Probable Pitchers:

Today, 1:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Homer Bailey	5-4	16	14	0	0	0	0	76.1	80	54	50	12	36	52	5.90	1.52

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-10	28	28	1	0	0	0	189.1	158	71	69	11	70	162	3.28	1.20

I have heard that Bailey has turned a corner. I'm not so sure about that. Admittedly, he has allowed just 4 ER over 21.1 IP his last three starts, but a closer inspection shows the bookend games of that stretch came against Pittsburgh. Before that stretch, 9 of his 11 starts had a sub-50 game score. He's among the worst at preventing home runs, so this is his chance to show he isn't a blind squirrel that found a nut and two Pirates. Ubaldo is on an elite roll, going 6+ IP in 24 straight starts, has won 6 of 7 starts, allowed 2 or less runs in seven straight, has 11 consecutive quality starts and has gone 8.0 innings in 4 of 6 starts. Favors: ROCKIES very strongly

Tuesday, September 8, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Maloney	0-3	5	4	0	0	0	0	23.2	26	17	17	8	7	19	6.46	1.39

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-10	30	27	2	1	0	0	182.1	181	82	76	12	57	88	3.75	1.31

Rookie Matt Maloney was sent to the minors last Monday after three subpar starts in the rotation. He has started four games for Cincinnati this year, allowing two home runs in each (lip your chops boys). He does decenty with strikeouts and walks, but those home runs give him a SSS FIP of 7.01 and tRA of 7.21. He throws the starter's traditional four, with only ahigh 80-s fastball tending to live above 80mph. Without looking, that ought to tell you he's left-handed. Jason Marquis has allowed 5+ ER in consecutive starts for the first time since early May. He had obvious mechanical flaws in his last start, so if recent trends continue Cincinnati stands a chance However, I adhere to larger sample sizes. Favors: ROCKIES strongly

Wednesday, September 9, 6:40 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Bronson Arroyo	12-12	29	28	3	2	0	0	183.0	188	93	86	28	60	101	4.23	1.36

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	28	25	1	0	0	0	143.0	174	79	70	12	37	99	4.41	1.48

Bronson Arroyo is on some kind of roll. He has a 1.17 ERA over his last five starts, allowing one or less in four of them. The right-hander has hurled 8 straight quality starts and 10 of 11. Contrary to Bailey, I think Arroyo hmay indeed be turning a corner, partially due to his larger body of work in his career. I love me some Jason Hammel. The Rockies have won 8 of his 9 Coors starts under Jim Tracy and he has allowed 3 or less runs in seven straight. And that's your fifth starter. Booya. Favors: DRAW.

Thursday, September 10, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kip Wells	1-1	6	3	0	0	0	0	25.2	16	9	9	2	16	18	3.16	1.25

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jose Contreras	1-0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.2	8	1	1	1	1	5	1.35	1.35

How about a duel of castaways? Kip Wells has started three games for Cincinnati, all victories. In his last two games, he allowed a total of 2 ER and 3 hits in 12 IP. But we know who the real Kip Wells is. He has a 4.85 season ERA, 4.58 FIP and as a starter for Cincy, he has a 6.89 tRA. Jose Contreras will try to back up his solid debut in which he escaped a lot of traffic and high pitch counts. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

My take

Ubaldo will start the series off right this afternoon. The Reds are definitely on a nice streak, but it has mostly been built by good pitching, which is due for a jolt against a hot offense at Coors Field. Their streak is noteworthy, but so is the fact that they only faced two teams that are over .500, sweeping the Braves and losing to the Dodgers. Otherwise, five of the wins came against the Pirates and three against the sinking Brewers. That streak will carry less weight than the popitching matchups, which the Rockies are sitting pretty for all four games. There's no reason they shouldn't win three games in the series.

Francisco Cordero had five saves last week alone while Drew Stubbs hit .333 and 3 HR during the week. Darnell McDonald got a chance to start and went 5-for-15 with a HR and Brandon Phillips was 12-for-25 with 2 HR and 3 2B. Bronson Arroyo allowed 1 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, allowing just two in the outlier.

Joey Votto is had just two hits last week in 21 ABs, though he did hit a homer. Corky Miller has 20 straight hitless at-bats. Justin Lehr is coming off his worst three game stretch of the season.

The Reds are making their run in spite of a rash of injuries this season. Several key contributors are on the 15-day shelf, including OF's Jay Bruce (wrist - 7/12), Willy Taveras (quad - 8/19), Chris Dickerson (ankle - 8/24), Laynce Nix (neck - 8/21), RHP Aaron Harang (appendix - 8/21), and Cs Ryan Hanigan (concussion - 8/24) and Ramon Hernandez (knee - 7/17). That's just the 15-day DL. On the 60-day, there's RHPs Edinson Volquez (elbow - 6/2) and Mike Lincoln (neck - 6/13), IF Danny Richar (shoulder - 7/3) and C Wilkin Castillo (shoulder - 6/21).

Poll

How will the homestand shake out?

Extremely sour. 5-5 after a sweep

4 votes

Quite bitter. 6-4 after losing the series

3 votes

Acceptable. 7-3 after a series split.

14 votes

Very happy. 8-2 after winning the series.

44 votes

Perfect. Can't do much better than 9-1 after sweeping the Reds

28 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

In "The King & I," it's referred to as "The Small House of Carnal Pleasures of Uncle Thomas." Reds win, 4-2 in extras.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 22:45:29 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Micah Owings. Even though Micah cannot possibly be a starter [reasons for this pending], he stepped up with two shutout innings of relief, then got the win by being hit in the head to drive in the winning run. We hope that he's okay. Johnny Cueto also pitched six innings of one run ball and struck out nine. Drew Stubbs went 3-5 with a home run.

Key Plays

In the third inning of this pitcher's duel, Johnny Cueto led off with a single, followed by Drew Stubbs's single. Cueto came around to score on Darnell McDonald's single up the middle. With one run in, two runners on, no outs and the heart of the order coming up, the Reds looked poised to do some real damage. But Joey Votto struck out, Stubbs was caught stealing third, and Brandon Phillips grounded out.
Adam LaRoche's single in the fourth broke up Johnny Cueto's no-hitter, but he was immediately stranded.
Former Red David Ross helped level things with a one out walk in the fifth. Nate McLouth moved him to second one out later with a single, and Martin Prado doubled to bring him in.
After six stellar innings, Jared Burton came in to relieve Cueto. He immediately gave up a home run to David Ross, and a single to Kelly Johnson. Danny Ray Herrera came in and got a fly out from McLouth and a double play from Prado. Would this be the end of the Reds winning streak?
No! Drew Stubbs hit his fifth home run of his young season to tie the game with two outs in the eighth inning.
Bonus Baseball! Stubbs hit a triple in the eleventh inning, but was thrown out at the plate by Nate McLouth after he tried to score on McDonald's fly out.
In the twelfth inning, Votto drew a leadoff walk, and Scott Rolen moved him to third with a single. Wladimir Balentien also walked and the bases were loaded for Micah Owings. Kenshin Kawakami unloaded a pitch that hit Owings in the head. It was a scary moment, but the winning run came in. Corky Miller hit a sacrifice fly to bring in Rolen for an insurance run.
Not that it was needed. Francisco Cordero struck out the side for his 33rd save.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

After getting hit in the batting helmet, Owings walked off the field under his own power.
The Reds have won their seventh straight and 12 of 14. It's not surprising that this is happening without Willy Taveras and Alex Gonzalez, though it is surprising that Justin Lehr and Kip Wells have been important parts of this hot streak.
Tim Hudson retired the last 14 batters he faced.
The Reds are now only three games out of third place in the NL Central.
Drew Stubbs has five home runs in 87 plate appearances.
The Reds have swept three of their last four series.

Final - 9.6.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4	7	1
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	0
WP: Micah Owings (7 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (33) LP: Kenshin Kawakami (7 - 11)

Complete Coverage >

Pirates Swept by Reds

Charlie — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:13:50 -0000

by Tom Uhlman - AP

View full size photo »

This was an ugly series. The Pirates managed to lose four games against Kip Wells, Justin Lehr, a guy who was fresh off the DL (Johnny Cueto) and a guy who's pitched well recently but still entered the game with a 6.04 ERA (Homer Bailey). Take yesterday's game, for example. Yes, it might have turned out differently if the Reds hadn't managed to squirt about six dozen ground balls through holes in the infield, but it's still ridiculous to lose against Lehr, who had absolutely nothing, couldn't find the zone and just generally looked like the worst pitcher the Pirates have faced all year.

There were bright spots to this series--No Relation McCutchen's good major league debut, Garrett Jones' continued mashing, Joel Hanrahan. But the fact remains that this was the Reds, who are almost as bad on paper as the Pirates are.

Dozens thrill to the adventure! Reds win a wild one, 4-3.

Brendanukkah — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:13:04 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Don't touch me. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Drew Stubbs. The rookie went 2-4 with a home run, two runs scored and a stolen base.

Key Plays

Drew Stubbs hit a home run in the bottom of the first inning, Cincinnati's first leadoff home run of the season.
Kip Wells made sure the lead did not hold up long. In the bottom of the second, he walked Lastings Milledge with two outs, hit Ronny Cedeno with a pitch, then gave up back to back singles to Jason Jaramillo and Daniel McCutchen. The Reds were down, 2-1.
The Drew Crew helped put the Reds back on top in the third. With one out, Drew Stubbs singled and stole second. Drew Sutton then singled to drive him in, and took second base on the throw. After moving to third on Joey Votto's grounder, Sutton scored when Scott Rolen singled. 3-2, Reds.
Carlos Fisher relieved Kip Wells in the seventh, and immediately gave up a triple to Ronny Cedeno, and a single to Jaramillo. The game was tied, and extras loomed.
Opening Day centerfielder Darnell McDonald wouldn't let that happen. He singled with one out in the ninth, moved to second on Craig Tatum's hit, and advanced to third on a fly ball by Paul Janish. Then, with JNMHSotG Drew Stubbs at the plate, Pirates pitcher Jesse Chavez uncorked a wild pitch, and McDonald scored the winning run.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Official attendance was 13,051. Estimates put the actual body count between 1,500 and 2,000.
This game was a make up game for one that was rained out on April 10. Only Ryan Doumit and ~~Adam~~ Andy LaRoche were left from the Pirates lineup. I can't find a lineup for the Reds from that day, but of the starting lineup this afternoon, only Joey Votto was with the Reds on April 10.
Johnny Cueto was the scheduled pitcher on April 10. He will start tonight's game.
There have only been two major league baseball players with the last name of McCutchen. They both played for the Pirates today.