SB Nation - Mike Maroth

May the Smoltz be with us

chuckb — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

John Smoltz's carefully crafted plan to become a Cardinal is displayed here as he gives up another extra base hit to a Red Sox opponent. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson, File)

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I did a piece on this just a few days ago but we’re going to break it down a little more today. First, it’s important that we note that he was dfa’d for a reason – primarily, that his ERA was a robust 8.32. There’s, of course, a lot of bad in there to create an 8.32 ERA. Those aren’t accidents. He’d given up 59 hits in 40 innings. Batters are batting .341/.384/.584 against him this year. He’s given up 1.80 HR/9 this season. Lefties have annihilated Smoltz to the tune of .440/.490/.758. Ugh! His fastball is down from a career average 93.4 mph and 92.5 mph last year to 91.3 mph this year. As a result, Smoltz is more than 16 runs below average w/ the fastball this year. Imagine if he’d been throwing it more than 42.1% of the time! It’s not all terrible, however.

His BABIP is a whopping .390, unsustainably high for a guy w/ just an 18.1% LD rate. His LD rate (18.1%) is lower than his career LD rate – 20.1%. He’s having an unusually high percentage of fly balls leave the ballpark – 14.8%. Combine that w/ the BABIP and it’s not difficult to argue that he’s been a victim of bad luck. His K rate this year is pretty strong (7.43) and his BB rate is better than his career average. Perhaps most importantly, he’s only pitched 40 innings so far this year. As Dave Cameron argues, anything can happen in 40 innings so there’s no need to get worked up about the high homer rate and the reduced speed on his fastball. The terrible lefty splits? That’s in a grand total of 101 PAs. Talk about a small sample. It’s about 4 games worth of PAs. Would any of us contend that Carp was washed up based on 4 bad starts?

I mentioned a week ago that Smoltz has been fantastic in innings 1 and 2 and in his first 25 pitches of the game. Batters have splits of .250/.342/.313 the first time through the order against him. To me, that’s more comforting if he’s going in the bullpen but, in light of the news that Tony and Duncan want him starting games, it’s slightly less comforting. That said, he’s still seeing swinging strikes on 16% of his strikes – a percentage higher than any of our starters – including Wainwright and Carpenter.

It’s tough to know what to expect from Smoltz. As I said, he’s thrown just 40 innings this year and it’s difficult to place a lot of emphasis on what he did last year, considering the fact that he threw just 28 innings in ’09. In ’07, he was 40 and threw 205 innings. He had a 4.19 K/BB ratio and a 0.79 HR rate. He was pretty tough on lefties -- .262/.327/.382 – in 432 PAs. That’s more than 4 times as many PAs against lefties as he’s had so far this season. As you’d expect, he was much better the 2nd and 3rd times through the order and was very good through pitch number 75. Still, he is 2 years older now and you’d expect the drop-off from age 40 to age 42 to be pretty steep. While we shouldn’t place a lot of emphasis on what’s happened so far this season, it’s probably foolish to look to his #s in 2007 as any kind of barometer on what to expect either.

Here’s what we do know – until he went on the D.L., Duncan preferred that Todd Wellemeyer reclaim the 5th spot in the rotation. I, for one, don’t expect Smoltz to be the Smoltz of old and while I’m adamantly opposed to Todd Wellemeyer ever throwing another meaningful pitch for the Cards (at least until he proves he can handle a bullpen role!), if Smoltz pitches the way Wellemeyer has this season, we’ll at least have the chance to win some of his starts. He wouldn’t be good, but we’d have a chance if he gave up, say…4 runs in 6 innings. So let’s compare the 2 this year:

	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	LD%	GB%
Smoltz	4.94	7.43	2.03	1.70	18.1	42.8
Wellemeyer	5.23	5.67	4.07	1.36	21.3	36.5

and vs. lefties:

	BA	OBP	SLG	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
Smoltz	.440	.490	.758	3.78	6.48	3.24	8.06
Wellemeyer	.342	.421	.606	5.92	5.92	2.59	7.60

Is there really any reason to think Smoltz would be any worse than Wellemeyer? Granted, we’re not setting the bar terribly high but, for a 5th starter, it could be worse. It could be Mike Maroth circa 2007. Yeah, those homers against lefties are troubling but he had 3 starts in Boston and one each in Baltimore, New York, and Texas. A lot of homers fly out of those parks. In fact, 3 of his 8 homers came in 1 start in Texas and another 2 came in 1 start in Yankee Stadium. 2 of the other 3 came in 1 start in Baltimore and the last homer came in Fenway. The 8 homers could be a little misleading considering the teams against which he pitched and the parks where he pitched.

I still say that we’ve got a hole in right-handed relief but maybe Hawksworth can fill it or maybe Smoltz can shift to the pen in the playoffs and fill the hole. Regardless, I think we’re better – if only by a little bit – w/ Smoltz on the roster and I think there are many reasons to believe he’ll be better than he was w/ the Red Sox. As Dave Cameron said (in the fangraphs article linked above):

A bad ERA over 40 innings, driven by a high BABIP and HR/FB rate, does not mean that Smoltz is finished any more than it means that Weaver is finished. And, of course, no one thinks that Jered Weaver is washed up. Cardinal fans just picked up a pretty good pitcher for the league minimum, thanks to the continued overestimation of the usefulness of ERA. The sooner people realize that it's an obsolete pitching statistic, the better off baseball will be.

Revisiting the Horror of the 2003 Detroit Tigers

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:00:12 -0000

If you need to feel better about this season's 0-2 start (and Big Al's already hovering over the panic button), perhaps it might bring you some solace to recall the 2003 Detroit Tigers. You know, the team that went 43-119? (I apologize if I'm bringing back any repressed memories or undoing any therapy with a mere mention.) With a starting pitcher, Mike Maroth, that carried 21 losses for the season?

Over at Fangraphs, Eric Seidman looks back at the '03 Tigers and who among them managed to persevere and carry on after that brutal season. Really, the only name mentioned that's faded away is Nate Cornejo. We know the fall that Dmitri Young has taken since then, but he's still in the majors, currently on the disabled list with the Washington Nationals. After suffering an elbow injury in 2006 and being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007, Maroth was released by the Blue Jays this spring, and is looking to catch on elsewhere.

That leaves Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman. And Robertson's barely hanging on for a job, though with a rather impressive inning of work on Monday night, maybe he'll manage to stick around. Will Bonderman, who took 19 losses himself that year, end up as the last man standing from that team?

Here's the Baseball-Reference page for the 2003 Tigers, if you care to reminisce or give yourself a shiver. Check out some of those names that were passed off to us as major leaguers. The horror. The horror.

Some Jay Minor League News

Tom Dakers — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 06:38:03 -0000

Over on Baseball America's web site that have a list of Minor League moves the Jays have made. The guys the Jays have released:

RHP Rick Bauer, RHP Mike MacDonald, RHP Dan Miller, RHP Jay Monti, RHP Seth Overbey, RHP Edward Rodriguez, RHP Orlando Roman, LHP Daryl Harang, LHP Brian Letko, LHP Mike Maroth, LHP Ken Takahashi, LHP A.J. Wideman, C Joel Collins, 1B Adam Amar, 1B Chip Cannon, SS Marcos Cabral, OF Jacob Butler, OF Chris Demons, OF Wayne Lydon, OF Cory Patton

The names that stand out for me are Joel Collins who is on our top 30 prospects and AJ Wideman, who I thought was a pretty good prospect but they know better. Chip Cannon hit 35 home runs in 2005 but hasn't done a thing since. Maroth never had a chance with the knee injury. Ken Takashashi was a mistake from the start. Wayne Lydon was prospect at one time.

A Few Sent Down

Tom Dakers — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:31:29 -0000

The Jays pared things down a bit today, sending Brett Cecil, Ken Takahashi, Adam Loewen, Brian Dopirak and Mike Maroth to their Minor League camp. Maroth has to decide if he wants to go down or if he wants his release. If I'm him I go down because no one is going to offer him a role off of what he has done this spring. Maybe he'll do well in Triple A and impress enough to get a job somewhere.

I'm a bit surprised by Cecil going down already, I thought he would get a couple more chances before being sent down. He's has looked really good this spring. I think we've got something in the future. Right now it looks like Doc, Litsch, David Purcey, Casey Janssen and Scott Richmond will be the rotation, though Matt Clement and Brad Mills are still in camp. Clements apparently can 'opt out' of his contract June 1 if he isn't with the Jays.

Doc starts for us tomorrow and is to pitch 5 innings. 21 days till the season starts.

Perfect Plans Cannot Be Made: Game Recap - Tigers 10, Jays 4

hugo — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 22:47:02 -0000

The Jays took a beating this afternoon at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, losing 10-4.

That said, the news wasn't all bad. Casey Janssen had a pretty solid outing - pitching 3 innings, and giving up just one run on 2 hits (he did walk two and hit another) while striking out one. Janssen tired in the third inning after a Brad Emaus error extended the inning, and that's when he hit a batter and walked another. But overall it was a good outing for him and you can't argue with the results either.

Mike Maroth, another hopeful for a Jays rotation spot, didn't fare as well. Maroth slipped out of the first two inings but things really derailed in his third. Overall, Maroth had an awful line, yielding 7 hits, including a home run, and 3 walks in 2 2/3 innings for 5 runs, 4 of which were earned. Maroth wasn't helped by two Brian Jeroloman passed balls in the same inning. Since I don't see any reason to send Maroth to AAA, let alone the Jays, I didn't mind seeing him get knocked around a bit.

Of course, Maroth looked better when Rick Bauer really let things get out of hand, giving up another 4 runs in just an inning and a third on four hits. He wasn't fooling anyone. Robert Ray, though, turned in a quality ninth inning.

At the plate, the top of the Jays order fared quite well, particularly against Tigers starter Dontrelle Willis. Adam Lind plated two runs with a well-hit triple to centre field in the first inning, while Aaron Hill was 1-2 with an RBI double and a walk. Russ Adams walked and reached on an error to score two runs. That was most of the Jays offense, to be honest, though I'm leaving out singles by Lyle Overbay, Jose Bautista, John McDonald (bringing his batting average up to .130, to Alan Ashby's delight), and Brad Emaus. Hill also made what sounded like a great jumping catch to save the third inning for Janssen.

Tomorrow, the Jays return to Dunedin where Brad Mills will take the mound for our heroes.

Spring Training Game Recap: Jays Beat Rays

Tom Dakers — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 20:25:01 -0000

Rays 1 Jays 3

That makes us 7 and 5 this spring. I know spring games mean nothing but for this team that keeps hearing how there weren't going to be good this year, a little confidence isn't a bad thing.

Anyway today Brett Cecil went 3.2 giving up just 1 hit, 4 walks, striking out 2 without giving up a run. The 4 walks is a worry but I am impressed. I really didn't see him making the team out of spring but now I almost think he has to. Jeremy Accardo wasn't as good in his 1.1 innings; 3 hits, a run and a strikeout. His ERA this spring is 11.37. I'm not too worried about him, he is coming back from a season long injury, might take him a little while longer. David Purcey pitched the last 4 scoreless innings with 4 hits and 2 k's. He hasn't given up a run yet this spring. I'm trying not to get ahead of things, but the pitching does look good.

Offensively Brad Emaus was 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, a run and 2 RBI. He has been impressive this spring. He won't make the club but is looking like someone that could come up if we run into injury troubles. Adam Lind was also 2 for 3. Kevin Millar was 1 for 3 with a RBI. Michael Barrett got his first hit of the spring, a walk and a run. And everyone's favorite, Howie Clark got into the game and was 1 for 1. Scoot Rolen was 0 for 1 with 2 walks.

Notable 0fers? Jason Lane, Travis Snider and Johnny Mac were 0 for 3. Some of the bloom seems to be coming off the rose for Lane though he is still hitting .357, Snider's at .379 and none of his outs were strikeouts. On the other hand McDonald is batting just .100. I guess this isn't going to be the year he learns to hit. He has gotta be running out of years to do that.

Tomorrow Jays play Tigers, Casey Janssen is to start and Mike Maroth is to pitch and the game will be on MLB Gameday Audio if you care to listen.

Highway 19 Revisited: Spring Training Week in Review, Pitchers Edition

hugo — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 03:03:00 -0000

Another week gone, and the Jays' pitching continues to look good. Doc looks scary good, Litsch is pink, round, and efficient as ever, Purcey has been effective if a little erratic, and it's actually something of a battle for the last two spots, with Janssen, Richmond, Mills, Cecil, and Clement all looking worthy of a spot and Romero turning a much better performance in his most recent appearance. Here's the rundown:

The Ice Is Getting Thinner: Spring Training Week One in Review - Part I, Pitchers

hugo — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 01:17:05 -0000

Here at Bluebird Banter, we'll be following the hopefuls at spring training in their attempt to make the Jays. Here's how your corvid hurlers did in the first week of spring training. For brevity, I've not included every single player in Jays' camp, but have enough of them to make things interesting, I hope. And we haven't included players who are guaranteed a spot, barring unforseen injury. Tomorrow we will take a look at the hitters!

Game Recap, Jays Lose to Team Canada

Tom Dakers — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:09:28 -0000

In a game that made it hard to figure out who to cheer for Team Canada beat the Jays 6-4. Maybe let's talk about the two teams separately.

Team Canada:

It looks like the Canadian team will have a really good offense, maybe leaning a little too much on the lefty batters. Is it a Canadian thing that most of our best batters swing left-handed. I know that there are far more lefty golfers in Canada than there is in the US. In Canada about 25% of us swing lefty while in the states it is less than 5%. The explanation I agree with is it is a hockey thing, most of us on this side of the border swing a hockey stick long before we swing a golf club and many (half?) hockey players are left-handed shots. So it is natural for us to pick up a golf club the same way. Maybe the same is true with a baseball bat.

Anyway the Team Canada bats looked good today, get 8 hits and taking 7 walks. Of note, Corey Koskie looked good at the plate, he was 1 for 3 with a double, a walk, a hit by pitch and 3 runs. Leadoff hitter and shortstop Chris Barnwell was 1 for 3 with 2 walks. Justin Morneau was 2 for 3 with an RBI and Pete Orr was 1 for 3 with 2 RBI. Back-up catcher Luke Carlin hit a 2 run double.

The defense for Canada might be a problem. In the outfield we had Joey Votto in left, Jason Bay in center and Matt Stairs in RF. I'd like to think Adam Stern will play center in the tournament games, moving Stairs to DH and maybe Kosie (who DHed today) to 3B.

Pitching looks to be the weak link for the Canadian team, but it was pretty good today. Scott Richmond went 2.2, gave up 4 hits, a walk, a strikeout and 2 runs. Chris Begg followed him with a good 2.1 innings, striking out 4 while giving up just a run. First round draft pick Phillippe Aumont, Jesse Crain, Steve Green and David Davidson (what were his parents thinking) each pitched an scoreless inning except for Green. Green gave up a homer to Aaron Matthews (who?) but got lucky on a call where Mark Teahen, playing RF, trapped a ball against the RF fence but got credited with a catch.

Blue Jays:

Mike Maroth didn't impress, he walked 3, hit one batter but only gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Fabio Castro didn't have a great showing either giving up 2 hits and 2 walks in 2 innings. Bill Murphy also gave up 2 runs in 2 innings. Rick Bauer gave up 1 run in his 1 inning of work. But TJ Beam and Robert Ray looked good, pitching a scoreless inning each. Ray in particular has looked good this spring.

Batting wise Scott Campbell went 2 for 3 with an RBI. Johnny Mac, Inglett, Jason Lane and Adam Loewen each went 1 for 3. Russ Adams was 1 for 2 with a walk and run, but he didn't look good in the field, playing second base.

Doing less well were Michael Barrett (0 for 3 with 2 strikouts), Buck Coats (0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts), Ryan Patterson (0 for 2), Brad Emaus (0 for 2) and Kevin Ahrens (0 for 2).

Tomorrow the Jays play Team USA. Brad Mills is to start for the Jays and Casey Janssen and Lyle Overbay will get their first game action this spring.

I Love Spring Training

Tom Dakers — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 16:33:04 -0000

I've always loved Spring Training. For lots of reasons, I guess right up near the top is the word spring, a promise of the end to this cold. We have had a particularly bad winter this year, in fact it snowed all night and is still coming down though it is warm (just above freezing) so it is very wet. So the idea that spring could be coming sometime soon is a good thing.

Then, of course, there is baseball to watch. I really love watching baseball. Joe Morgan talks about stat guys that don't watch baseball and I always loved reading Bill James and I like reading the Baseball Prospectus each year. But I like watching the games. I like watching the shortstop get a ball in the hole. I like watching lefties swing and compare to my swing, which was never a work of art. I like watching pitchers with different windups or that throw from different arm slots. I even like watching guys bunt, even though I know it is a terrible strategy 95% of the time. I like the skill it takes to do it well and I like watching the different bunt defenses.

And I like watching the young players. I like that Brad Emaus hit one out yesterday, I like getting the first chance to see how Scott Campbell could do against major league pitching. I like seeing how Brett Cecil does, 4.2 innings with 7 strikeouts and just 2 hit and 2 walks given up.

I like seeing how the guys that aren't prospects do. I like seeing Wayne Lydon playing center field even if I think he's got no chance of making the team. I like seeing that Dirk Hayhurst has started spring training so well or that Jason Lane seems to be forcing the Jays to consider him for a role. I like guys like that, that are a little older and that keep at it even though the odds are long. Guys that hang around making bus rides in the minors just because the love the game. Every now and then it works out for one of them. Jesse Carlson was 27 last season when he made his first major league appearance and he came out of no where to do a great job for the team.

And I love stories like the one Hugo mentioned yesterday about Adam Lind putting on 20 pounds of muscle over the winter. Or Aaron Hill returning from his concussion and looking good out there. Or Casey Janssen who I can't wait to see pitch. Or Scott Richmond getting a chance to win a starting job after pitching in an Independent league 2 years ago. Or even reading about Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay trying to bounce back from poor seasons last year.

I guess I have read too many times in the last little bit that spring training games are meaningless. Well, I guess so, but in the grand scheme of things, all baseball games are meaningless, it's not like they are going to cure cancer or something. If you are a baseball fan why not enjoy the games for the experience of just watching good baseball played by good players.

Anyway, all this was a lead up to saying: Today's game is on Sportsnet! The Jays are playing Team Canada. So watch, and come join us in the game thread. Mike Maroth is to start for the Jays and Scott Richmond will start for Team Canada.