SB Nation - Gary Bennett

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

The Sweep: Choose Your Own Explanatory Adventure

DanUpBaby — Fri, 22 May 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Please, please—get it off me.

Browse more photos »

It's a great day in St. Louis, and you're trying to make sense of the Cardinals' inexplicable sweep of the Hated Cubs after a rough series in Milwaukee. If you think team momentum has shifted, flip to LEDE ONE. If you think the team played poorly last week, and really well this week, flip to LEDE TWO. If you want to leave Diane and Berk behind and explore the dark cave, flip to LEDE THREE.

LEDE ONE

Momentum has shifted, after that neutral-site series in the Slough of Despond, and it feels pretty good. I'm not a member of the pitching-wins-championships fraternity, and I never have been, and to be honest I'd rather see a 5-3 game than a 3-1 game. But I'll give the sportswriters of that esteemed group this: good pitching makes a team feel invincible in a way that good hitting doesn't.

I mean, travel back with me, if you will, to the last Cardinals-Cubs sweep, when Gary Bennett pulverized the Cubs and earned himself a lifetime pass with a two-out walk-off grand slam, which is really just dramatic excess, at that point. (Backup catcher hits game winner? Sure. Home run? Sure. Two outs? Well... alright. Grand slam? This is the part where the producer suggests you remove the baseball-following guardian angels from your screenplay.)

At any point in that series did you feel that they could not stop Gary Bennett? I might be wrong, here, but I didn't. I may have joked about it and then pretended I wasn't joking after I looked Eerily Prescient, but I was never honestly expecting Gary Bennett to put the team on his shoulders.

But after Joel Pineiro got going in game one—say, by the fourth or fifth inning—I felt good about the game, even after the nightmares visited on us by the series that wouldn't end. I'm skeptical of his season-long chance at success, and I don't normally feel confident heading into a Pineiro start, but at that point I began to think—that's a little too charitable. I began to feel: they can't touch Pineiro tonight. Then Carpenter after that, and Wainwright—new and improved Wainwright—after that? The Cubs didn't stand a chance. If the Cardinals had won that first game because Jason LaRue had hit three home runs I would have been able to make more cheap Camaro jokes, but I wouldn't have been nearly as confident.

If you're going to continue to watch the Cardinals now that they've righted the ship, turn to ENDING TWO. If you've had enough, turn to ENDING ONE.

LEDE TWO

This is exactly why team momentum is a bankrupt concept. The Cardinals came into this Cubs series looking like garbage. They couldn't pitch, they couldn't hit, and every move they made turned out poorly. One of their players more or less announced, in a heartbreakingly quiet way, that he wasn't ready to play baseball. The pitching was a catalogue of frustration.

And in the Cubs series—despite rolling into the most pressure-packed rivalry in the NL with no momentum at all—they pitched beautifully. Different pitchers but the same team, in the same clubhouse, with the same murky forecast. Pineiro threw the game that Dave Duncan has been waiting for his entire life, just six fly balls, just five strikeouts, and then Chris Carpenter came back and showed he was healthy, and Wainwright came back and showed that he, unlike the rest of the rotation, had gotten over his love affair with the base on balls.

And the team did the little things, even, the things that teams who are dogged by a losing streak are supposed to fumble. The important run in the Pineiro game was scored thanks to a sacrifice hit and a steal of third base by a player who wears his socks in the little-things fashion. The Carpenter game was sealed by a sacrifice fly from the player who needed it not just as an athlete but as a human being, and the dugout—which had to have been a morgue throughout the last series—greeted him with genuine affection, the kind that isn't quite captured in the concept of team chemistry.

If you're going with momentum, here, you can say that changed things—the mood shifted, things seemed possible once Ryan ran down third base. And they did seem possible. But if Lilly strikes out Molina instead of Duncan, what happened in the moment between the stolen base and the strikeout? Or if Khalil strikes out and his team has to pat him on the back and say he'll get them next time, where did the momentum go? If it's powerful enough to ruin a pitcher's command on a game-by-game basis, how can it shift on such a dime?

At this point, even if momentum exists, why write about it? It only means that they're not playing well right now, and that at any moment they might be ready to play well, often for an extended period of time. It can only be given to and taken away from a team in hindsight. It has no predictive value, and very little descriptive value, which makes one wonder what value it has at all.

These Cardinals are capable of wonderful things. They've got players with very particular skills, like Pineiro's control and Ryan's grace on the basepaths and afield, and when those skills are in effect it's a lot of fun to watch. And when the particular skills aren't in effect, it can be a nightmare. I'm sure this is true of a lot of teams, but these Cardinals have a lot of patched holes; there's not a lot of room for average on a team that starts Joe Thurston across the diamond from Albert Pujols.

If you're resigned to the ebb and flow of baseball, the frustrations and the ecstatic, fist-pumping, goatee-rattling victories, turn to ENDING TWO. If you're determined to find some order in this chaotic baseball world, flip to ENDING THREE.

LEDE THREE

You take the flashlight from Diane and head into the cave. "Be careful!" she says.

You shine the light down the center of the cave. That bat's in there, alright, and he has Diane's necklace! But by the time you two make eye contact, he's gone. Does that mean—could it mean—

If you're pretty sure the necklace isn't worth all that much, anyway, and want to leave the cave, go to ENDING ONE. If you're ready to move further into the cave, turn to ENDING THREE.

ENDING ONE

"Hey!" Berk shouts. "Remember what the bat did to Mr. Whillicker's dog!"

You remember—how could you forget? Your hands are shaking pretty badly, but by the time the bat's cries begin to echo louder and closer you've found some solid footholds and begin your climb back up to the mouth of the cave.

Light and fresh air greet you at the top, and as you pull yourself up by the tree stump you walk back to Diane. She'll be alright—you and Berk mean more to her than some old necklace, anyhow.

ENDING TWO

Baseball lends itself to patterns because it's so long and daily a grind—players do incredible things one month, teams seem to fall apart the next. And the whole thing can be read down the columns of a box score or Baseball-Reference's game logs and encapsulated in moments like Bennett's grand slam or Pineiro's shutout.

I can't honestly say whether it's a cause or an effect of some amalgam of factors, but sometimes team just Come Together. The Cardinals had several things in their favor heading into this series—Carpenter's return, Wainwright's one-start return to form, Rasmus's blossoming power—and they managed to cash in every single positive chit in their favor, along with plenty that nobody could have expected. Whether it was a confluence of those circumstances and luck or a team-wide desire to turn things around I can't say. But I'm glad it happened.

ENDING THREE

As you climb deeper into the cave things get so dark that the flashlight can barely show you the edges of the big bat, which seems to be leading you someplace. Its squeaking gets so quiet that you remember what Diane's mom said when you first saw it in the neighborhood: It's probably as afraid of you as you are of it.

But as the cave opens wider all of your empathy vanishes—the bat charges toward you, Diane's necklace glinting in your flashlight, so quickly that you hardly realize what's happened when it's got you in its talons. Before you can fight it off it's flying you off of the ledges and into the open center of its lair!

This must be how Mr. Whillicker's dog felt! You don't know whether the bat is really a vampire or not, but now that's hardly your most pressing concern. A particularly rough flap knocks the flashlight from your hands, and it seems to fall forever before it splashes into an underground lake and the big hall goes completely dark. You're afraid of heights.

THE END

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:25:11 -0000

So the morning after election day used to be a huge hangover day for me. This year, I didn't drink and I'm still sick. That's just not fair.

Let's start with awards today. We all know Jason Kendall had a pretty good season defensively, but would you have guessed he was the second best catcher in all of baseball? The Fielding Bible Awards ranked Kendall second at catcher.

They also ranked J.J. Hardy second at shortstop, which fits in nicely with Beyond the Box Score ranking him as the fourth best shortstop overall.

Some other rankings, while I'm on the subject:

Walk Like a Sabermetrician ranks Brewer leadoff hitters (mainly Rickie Weeks) 20th in all of baseball in 2008.
Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranked the Brewers as the 8th best team in baseball defensively.
Want further proof that all free agents cost more than you think they should? Beyond the Box Score rates Ray Durham as the 20th most valuable free agent this offseason...and says he's worth $10 million.

Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has a review of the Brewer minor leagues in 2009. Players featured include Manny Parra, Jonathan Lucroy, Brent Brewer, Jake Odorizzi and Efrain Nieves.

Here's a quick walk around Rumorville: Bleeding Blue and Teal lists the Brewers as one of the four teams most likely to acquire Mariners closer J.J. Putz. There's also whispers out there about a trade involving Braves 2B Kelly Johnson and Ryan Ludwick, which Al thinks could evolve into conversations about Corey Hart.

Speaking of rumors, Jon Heyman of SI.com has one you almost certainly haven't heard every day for two weeks: the Yankees are interested in CC Sabathia.

He's not getting as much of an opportunity to play in the AFL as I'd like, but The Official Site has a nice profile on Lorenzo Cain and his efforts to be more patient at the plate.

If you're excited about the new MLB Network in January, here's reason to be even more excited: the lead studio host for MLB Network will be former Brewer TV guy Matt Vasgersian. Also, while I haven't seen this confirmed anywhere, Al says Trenni will be there too.

No Brewers filed for free agency Tuesday, but here are some players that did generate hot stove news:

Blue Jay A.J. Burnett officially opted out of his contract Tuesday, leaving him free to seek more than 2 years, $24 million on the open market.
Cardinal Mark Mulder filed for free agency.
Dodgers declined their option on C Gary Bennett and also may be willing to make Russell Martin available.
Marlin Luis Gonzalez filed for free agency.
National Dmitri Young was outrighted to AAA. He accepted the move and is due $5 million in salary in 2009 anyway. He could be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
Padre Jake Peavy is reportedly down to three potential teams for next season: the Braves, Cubs and Dodgers.
Yankees Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano both had their option declined for 2009.

Oh, and after three straight nights of waking me up in the middle of the night, I'm about ready to offer Gorman up as a tester for AirDog Hover Vests.

Drink up.