SB Nation - Braden Looper

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

Braden Looper hopes to pitch in Chicago

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:13:45 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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Free agent pitcher Braden Looper told FOXSPORTS.com that he hopes to pitch for the Cubs next season. The Cubs' rotation, already down one with Ted Lilly out till at least May, is in need of a back-end of the rotation starter.

One NL source said the Cubs have checked on the likes of Randy Wolf and Justin Duchscherer, but Looper could be an appealing alternative. Looper struggled mightily last season giving up 39 bombers through 194.2 innings, walking 64 to 100 strike outs and posting a 5.22 ERA.

"That would be appealing," he said. "You've got to see what your options are. I don't know if they're looking for a starting pitcher, since they have a new owner. But I'm living in Chicago, and I've got three kids in school here, so that would be nice."

The Cubs likely appreciate the gesture, but I don't see them making a move on him.

One source believes the Cubs may try to make a deal for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers. The Rangers have had talks with the Cubs about Milton Bradley, but likely would need to bring in a third team to make a deal happen.

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Felipe Lopez reacts after learning Doug Melvin has decided not to offer him arbitration, against the advice of roughly 90% of the BCB community.

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Some things to read while raising your expectations.

Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:

Felipe Lopez, 88%
Mike Cameron, 48%
Braden Looper, 7%
Jason Kendall, 3%
David Weathers, 3%

So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.

Here's some more reaction from around the web:

SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.

If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.

After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.

Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.

In the minors:

Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.

Around baseball:

Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.

With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.

At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.

Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.

There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)

Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.

No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.

Drink up.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:25:35 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Braves would love to unload Derek Lowe's contract, but don't sound all that interested in taking on Corey Hart in exchange.

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Some things to read while moving Christmas dinner.

When something shows up in two separate sections of the site, it's usually best to assume it's true, so the fact that there are posts about it in Rumorville and the FanShots must mean there's some truth to the rumor that the Brewers and Braves have discussed a trade that would send Corey Hart to the Braves for Derek Lowe. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the Braves aren't interested in Hart, which makes two of us. Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! reiterated a trade idea they mentioned a while back: Hart for Kenshin Kawakami.

As of 12:01 this morning, the market is officially open for free agents to negotiate with other teams. Tom H. has an overview of the market, with the Brewers tied to the usual names: John Lackey, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn. Randy Wolf's name was also mentioned.

The Pinstriper has predictions for all of this offseason's Type A and B free agents, and thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis and re-sign Jason Kendall. Meanwhile, they have Mike Cameron, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez and David Weathers signing with the Padres, Astros, Dodgers and Pirates, respectively.

While the BBWAA has left the Brewers out in their voting for most of their major awards, one pitcher still collected an award from another source: Manny Parra won Joe Posnanski's NL Les Sweetland Award for being the NL's worst pitcher in 2009, while Jason Kendall narrowly missed winning the NL LVP.

At least in this scenario, Kendall wouldn't be back: Wisconsin Sports Tap thinks the Brewers should step into the future and give Jonathan Lucroy the catching job in 2010. I've covered why I think it's a bad idea.

Two Brewer staffers, manager in the Brewers' media relations department John Steinmiller and manager of marketing promotions Caitlin Moyer have started a blog to keep fans updated on what's going on at Miller Park during the offseason, and they have a post on some planned renovations in and around the park, as well as the renaming of some parking lots (h/t Adam McCalvy). Miller Park Drunk took a look at the new parking lot map and wonders how Paul Molitor ended up getting the faraway lot.

As noted in today's Fall/Winter League Update, Alcides Escobar had a pretty good night in Venezuela last night, going 4-for-4 with a solo home run. If you're looking for more about it and happen to speak Spanish, here's a game story from ElImpulso.com.

For many Brewer fans, it's been a long few decades of waiting for the Crew to put a winning team back on the field, but we've held strong. A Girl's View of the Brewers tells the story of her Brewer fanhood.

Around the league:

Cubs: Re-signed John Grabow to a one year deal worth $3.75 million.
D-Backs: Acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for a pair of minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed pitcher Brad Thompson to a minor league deal.

I know I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm going to mention Lookout Landing's Faces series again because today's installment features former Brewer first round pick Dave Krynzel.

The deadline has passed for players to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, so we can start looking at players who might be available. One such player is former Brewer farmhand Cole Gillespie, left unprotected by the D-Backs. Gillespie hit very well in AAA for the D-Backs after being acquired as part of the Felipe Lopez deal, and will probably get a shot to make a team as a fourth outfielder next spring.

We spend a lot of time discussing minutiae during the offseason and most of it doesn't amount to much in the end, but this is why we do it: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has a look at players who have gone from minor league free agent to big league contributor. It doesn't happen often, but it is possible to strike gold.

Miller Park Drunk is starting a season-by-season review of the decade that was for the Brewers, but you're forgiven if you're not too excited about reliving the 2000 season. It's about as exciting as Ryan Braun modeling more Remetee stuff.

Does a change up lose its effectiveness when a batter sees it multiple times? That's the question Max Marchi of The Hardball Times is taking on, by looking at batters who see multiple change ups, both in the same AB and over multiple ABs, and the pitchers who throw them.

On this day in 1969, the Seattle Pilots fired Joe Schultz, the first manager in franchise history, after just one season. Dave Bristol took over and managed the club for their first three seasons in Milwaukee.

Also, on this day in 1989, Robin Yount won his second American League MVP Award, this one as a center fielder. Yount received just eight of the 27 available first place votes but edged out Ruben Sierra by 28 points.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday again today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Rick Monday, who turns 64. Thanks in advance to FtJ, who will likely point out a birthday I missed in the comments.

And finally, a programming note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go deer hunting for a few days. I'll still be writing the Mug next week, but I'm moving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's Mugs to the afternoon so I can still hunt in the mornings. I'll be back with a regular Mug a week from today.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:28:20 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

John Lackey is not a future Brewer.

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Some things to read while cleaning your spit valve.

The Rookie of the Year awards will be announced in a few hours, but Casey McGehee isn't sitting by his phone waiting for a call. He seems to understand that he's a long shot at best for the award. He finished eighth in the SBN balloting for the award.

I keep expecting to hear an announcement, but instead we have more reports that their might be an announcement someday: Doug Melvin has been in contact with Gregg Clifton, who represents Mark Mulder, about signing a deal to attempt to resurrect his career. The Brewers still seem like the most likely candidate to sign him, but it's not done yet.

Melvin has also been in touch with Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski about the possibility of acquiring Edwin Jackson, but said the Tigers are "in charge of that one," and "they'll identify which clubs are matches and they'll call them." Clearly, Melvin is hard at work on this one.

Over the weekend, I put together a hypothetical deal that would put Jackson and Curtis Granderson in Milwaukee and Casey McGehee and Carlos Gomez in Detroit. Roughly 31% of voters think I'm an idiot for suggesting it, but by virtue of making an offer I might be one step ahead of the front office. By the way, at least one AL Exec doesn't think the Tigers are looking to move Granderson. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times suggested a Gamel-for-Jackson swap, but said the Tigers would need to add more to their side.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the Brewers will end up with Rich Harden. (h/t Baseball Musings) Rumors about Harden seem to be coming from everywhere but the front office.
MLB Daily Dish thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis, and Mike Cameron will sign with the Cubs.
Walkoff Walk wants to know why Cameron isn't drawing more attention from pundits this offseason.
The Brewers may have competition for Jarrod Washburn: Aaron Gleeman notes that the Twins have expressed interest.
Still think the Brewers will make a run at John Lackey this offseason? Then here's some disheartening news: Lackey turned down $72 million from the Angels, which is almost certainly more than the Brewers would consider (or should consider) offering him.

In the wake of the recent decision to decline Braden Looper's option for 2010, Rob Neyer painted a picture of the Brewers' situation that's mostly gloom and doom. Similarly, Fire Doug Melvin wonders if the Brewers have missed their window.

Meanwhile, Adam Thompson of the Sheboygan Press thinks the Brewers have already made themselves better this offseason. That's as good a reason as any to stop paying attention to Adam Thompson of the Sheboygan Press.

I'd like the Brewers to improve the team a little more before I even start thinking about it, but when you're ready to start looking ahead to 2010, CHONE projections are out.

How'd you spend your weekend? Doesn't matter. Ryan Braun one-upped you by spending his weekend at actress Jessica Lowndes' birthday party. Oh, and Seth McClung spent his promoting a charity basketball tournament.

Only one transaction to report today, but it might be significant to some:

Rays: Signed R.J. Swindle to a minor league deal.

In a somewhat surprising move, former Brewer Marquis Grissom is parting ways with the Nationals. 2009 was Grissom's first season as first base coach for the Nats. As of a few weeks ago, he was giving quotes about being excited about coming back, so I'm not sure what happened.

If you're looking to learn more about Sabermetrics today and have some time to kill, Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a primer on Linear Weights.

Or, if you're looking to help refine a new stat, In-Between Hops is working on a replacement for the Quality Start. Not surprisingly, 51 pitchers ranked ahead of the first Brewer in his new stat in 2009.

No Brewer birthdays today, but happy belated birthday to 2009 Timber Rattler Efrain Nieves, who turned 20 yesterday.

A quick programming note: I'm out for at least the rest of the day today, as I'm headed back to the dentist to see if we can't figure out some complications related to having my wisdom teeth removed a week ago. Depending on what I find out today, I'd say I'm probably questionable for tomorrow: I'm still in enough pain today that it's difficult to focus. Let this be a lesson to you, young readers: If your wisdom teeth don't hurt, leave them alone. I've been significantly more miserable for the last week than I ever was before I had them removed.

Drink up.

Weekend Mug 11/15

Fatter than Joey — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 06:50:01 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

This dude hates Spaghettio's, and hates that you love them.

View full size photo »

Hello Kids!

I see your Regular Dad has dropped you off at your Weekend Dad's doorstep. Apparently Mr. Fancypants has better things to do, than keeping you kids up to date about the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend. I have no idea what happened to your Regular Dad, one can only guess... in any case, let me turn off the Carmen Electra workout tape, put on some fresh sweatpants, open up a can of Spaghettio's and tell you all about the Brewers.

One thing my therapist encourages me to do every morning, is to google Ned Yost, and then reassure myself that Ned Yost, or his evil offspring, Ned Yost IV, can no longer hurt me. I thought it was interesting that this quote from Ned Yost, was produced by the google engine.

The Atlanta Braves were in last place for years and years before I got there.

The fact that Yost didn't make the finalist stage, and that the Astros eventually hired Brad Mills, is probably evidence that someone in Houston can muster up enough brain activity to fog a mirror, contrary to previous reports of a flatlining front office.

Doug Melvin showed his own mirror fogging prowess by declining the option on Brewer souvenir generator Braden Looper. The Brewers will have to pay Looper $1M for the opportunity to decline his option, however they will save $5.5M in salary for 2010, and probably another $400K in lost baseballs. Looper is a type B free agent now, and while the Brewers could offer Looper arbitration, it is unlikely, since Looper stands to make as much money in the arbitration process as his declined option would have provided.

Bleacher Report thinks Melvin did the right thing in declining Looper's option, however argues that unless the Brewers dump Jeff Suppan, the Brewers will still suck at pitching.
Along the same lines, Rob Neyer snips TH, and rips Looper, and wonders why Melvin just can't DFA Bush, Parra and Suppan. (TH story)
FireDougMelvin.com reminds us, that while we put new Hefty bags on the windows on our double-wide by releasing Looper, we are still living in the trailer park.
Quick! Name the only 4 pitchers in the history of MLB that were able to give up 39 or more homeruns in under 200 IP. (Answer: Jose Lima 48/196.1; Eric Milton 40/186.1; Shawn Boskie 40/189.1; Braden Looper 39/194.2)
Quote from Braden Looper:

"I tried the best I can to get the ball down because that's my whole game"

In other Brewer News:

The Brewers passed on RyDo to get CarGo.
Former Brewer draftpick Andrew Bailey, went from TJ surgery to potential ROY winner
Is Edwin Jackson a good fit? Is he worth a Mat Gamel?
I did not know Ken Macha was 1st cousins with Hal Newhouser, I am guessing through marriage.
Deputy Braun is opening a grill, and scored his 2nd Silver Slugger award
Ben Sheets is awaiting offers from all 30 MLB teams.
Mark Mulder and Doug Melvin are talking
Seth McClung was interviewed about Twittering, and is generous with his High School.
Eric Gagne wants to pitch in MLB again... as a starter... he developed a cutter, which apparently is helping his batted balls adhere to the laws of physics.
What's dumber than signing Doug Davis? Answer: Getting into a bidding war for Doug Davis

In other MLB news:

Jack Wilson signed a 2 year deal with the Mariners. The Fielding Bible says Wilson is the best fielding SS in MLB. The Home & Garden Bible says Wilson is an above replacement yard gnome.
RJ Swindle signed a minor league deal with the Rays.
Justin Huber has a weekend dad in Japan
Carl Crawford is pissed beyond belief
Rafael Betancourt needs a new Regular Dad

Your Regular Dad is always making you take quizzes, where you have to do math, and are required to spell names correctly. What is wrong with him? -- Weekend Daddy just wants you to match up these Weekend Grannies with the crimes they committed, isn't that more fun?

This is generally the place in the Mug where Regular Dad generally wishes some (but usually not all) former Brewers a Happy Birthday. Instead of doing that, why don't we join the greatest Brewer of all-time, Sixto Lezcano, in wishing young Jimmy Salladay a happy birthday.

A gathering of Angels appeared above my head
They sang to me this song of hope and this is what they said:
Weekend Dad is greater than Regular Dad

Daily Roundup

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:57:32 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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Several decisions on club options were made today, let's get right to it:

The Brewers declined Braden Looper's 5.5 million dollar club option, buying him out for one million dollars instead. The Brewers are unlikely to bring him back, focusing that money instead on one of the premier pitchers available. I expect to see the Brewers make a play for John Lackey.
After failing to work out a multi year deal, the Rockies declined Rafael Betancourt's 5 million dollar club option. The Rockies still plan to negotiate with the reliever, who posted a 2.73 ERA this past season.
The Mariners and shortstop Jack Wilson agreed to a two-year deal through 2011. Wilson was acquired from Pittsburgh on July 29th with Ian Snell, only to hit .224 with a home run. The Mariners hope he can return to his .268 career line.
The Red Sox met with the agent of pitcher John Lackey, the Boston Herald is reporting. The Red Sox are smart to gauge his value, but I don't see them spending big on pitching in a year where the priority is landing a corner outfielder.
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins have some interest in bringing back third baseman Joe Crede. Crede appeared in only 90 games this season to hit a disappointing .215. The Twins could probably get him on an incentive-laden deal.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:09:52 -0000

by Kathy Willens - AP

John Lackey still probably won't be a Brewer, but that didn't keep his agent from having a beer with Doug Melvin.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while reserving a campsite near the half-pipe.

Yes, this morning's Mug is late again - my apologies. Here's a quick microcosm of what this week has been like for me: At one point while gathering links this morning, I woke up at my desk, holding the dog. I have no idea how long I was asleep. I don't remember picking up the dog. Let's see what I found to write about:

Apparently the list of people who stopped by for a Molson while Doug Melvin was at the GM meetings also includes Steve Hilliard, who represents John Lackey. It's hard to tell if it was a serious conversation or just an effort to "check in," but one can safely say the Brewers have expressed interest.

Here's a stat that's not very encouraging: Fungoes has a graph ranking free agent pitchers by the difference between their FIP and ERA, which is largely attributed to their team's defensive ability and/or luck. Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, Jon Garland and John Lackey were among the six luckiest. You know what else they all have in common? The Brewers are rumored to have shown interest in them.

Technically, we're still in the "exclusive negotiation period" of free agency, where teams are not allowed to negotiate contracts with other teams' free agents. With that said, the OC Register has a deeper look at those rules, and they're pretty loose. For example, a conversation like this one, reconstructed in yesterday's Mug comments by TheJay, TSSC and Yar Nivek, could probably happen:

I don't think you can offer specific amounts, but you can say, "Hey, it just so happens we need someone at your position [wink wink]" and hear back, "I don’t want to play for Mudville [glare glare]."

"You know, the other day, I was so hungry I thought I could eat 20 MILLION HAMBURGERS an HOUR for 4 HOURS. That's 80 MILLION HAMBURGERS."

"I’m looking for my friend BILL. Have you seen any BILLS around here?"

The Brewers have until sometime tomorrow to make a decision on Braden Looper for next season. They can either agree to pay him $6.5 million to return, or pay him $1 million to leave. After having conversation with the agents of at least four free agent pitchers, Doug Melvin probably has a pretty good idea of what the market will look like this offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if a decision is announced today.

Jonathan Lucroy continues to draw positive reviews in the Arizona Fall League (FanShot), but another possibility has popped up for next season's catching vacancy, as Indians catcher Kelly Shoppach showed up in Rumorville yesterday. I've got a big post on catchers scheduled for later today: stop by around noon to check it out.

Here's a rather odd situation: Ben Sheets, who presumably has some interest in marketing himself to teams this offseason, is nowhere to be found, and at least one pundit is wondering if he may not come back after all. No one has heard from Sheets since his agent said he was throwing off flat ground several weeks ago. Jack Moore of FanGraphs says not to forget about him, though.

If you're feeling nostalgic and don't have anything else going on tomorrow, MLB Network is replaying Sheets' classic 2004 performance, when he struck out eighteen Braves in arguably the best outing of his career.

Larry Stone of The Seattle Times has the full list of arbitration eligible major leaguers for this offseason, so we can once and for all confirm that Carlos Gomez is on it. He qualifies as a Super Two this offseason by two days.

Beyond the Box Score has several visual aids ranking the free agent second basemen this offseason, and of the three graphs, Felipe Lopez leads two (WAR and wOBA), and Craig Counsell leads the other (UZR). Baseball Beat ranked Lopez as the fourth best free agent second baseman. They also rank Mike Cameron as the best center fielder, and Counsell as the fourth best shortstop.

Ryan Braun became just the third Brewer ever and the first since Paul Molitor in the 80s to take home back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards. Prince Fielder and Braun have combined to win the award three times in the last three seasons: Before that, the Brewers had only won one (Carlos Lee in 2005) since 1990.

There's a bunch of stuff in the minors today:

As Dan Walsh mentioned in yesterday's Mug comments, there's a rumor floating around that disappointing prospect Brent Brewer is considering quitting baseball to play college football. Brewer is reportedly planning a recruiting visit to Oklahoma State in the near future. Joshua Kusnick, who represents Brewer, said the report is just a rumor.
Brewer ranked fourth in Wisconsin Sports Tap's look at shortstop prospects in the organization. A 2006 draft pick, Brewer was ranked behind Josh Prince and Scooter Gennett. Both are 2009 draft picks, and Gennett has yet to make his pro debut.
Speaking of shortstops, Alcides Escobar was the shortstop on Topps' AAA All Star Team.
As the AFL season winds down, the Brewer who has gained the most in Arizona is almost certainly Zach Braddock, who has an ERA below 1 and hasn't allowed a hit in his last five innings of work. Braddock also shows up among the leaders in a couple of PitchF/x categories: getting called strikes and getting batters to swing and miss.
The Timber Rattlers have moved on to second base in the voting for their 15th Anniversary Team. Click here to read more about the nominees, including 2009 Rattler Brett Lawrie.
Baseball Intellect gave me a sneak peek behind their pay wall this week so I could take a look at some video and a nice scouting report on the delivery of Eric Arnett. They have a few paragraphs with some notes on Arnett's mechanics and velocity, along with a condensed video showing dozens of pitches from one of Arnett's recent outings. They also have a similar report on Jake Odorizzi. They're brief scouting reports and videos, but if you'd like to see these guys pitch for yourself, there are worse ways to spend $3.

I only have one transaction to note today:

Royals: Signed infielder Wilson Betemit to a minor league deal.

As I mentioned before, I've got a lot more on catchers later today, but here's a link to consider before then: Circling the Bases has a preview of the free agent market for backstops. With the exception of Bengie Molina, every catcher on the market is projected to make the same or less as what Jason Kendall made last season.

The Hardball Times has a look at the successes of the high, inside fastball. There's a lot of graphs, stats and considerations in there, but it seems like they're missing a bigger point: If a pitcher has the control to consistently throw a fastball over ANY corner of the strike zone, they're going to be successful.

I've heard others complain about this, and yesterday it happened to me: After checking the results on yesterday's Thinker, I blew an hour at Sporcle taking other quizzes. My favorites from the last 24 hours:

Name all the members of the NCAA FBS. (I got 107)
Name the conference of these D-I basketball teams. (I had somewhere in the mid-20's.)
This one is Mental Floss, not Sporcle, but name the 16 teams to appear in the most Final Fours. (I had 11.)

Mark Kiefer

Julie Scelfo of The New York Times

Amy K. Nelson