SB Nation - Todd Wellemeyer

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

The Mets' Advantage

Sam Page — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

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The local papers have come to their yearly consensus about the Mets offseason--it's a gap year. While the prospects of 2011 remain bright, the puppet Minaya regime are prisoners of circumstance, trapped in their bailout-funded stadium, recently painted red and blue in their latest failed attempt to appease fans. The evidence is irrefutable. The good free agent hitters won't sign because the park is too big. The good pitchers won't sign because the park isn't actually that big at all. Groundball pitchers are seeking teams with better infield defense, while the flyballs pitchers are just seeking employment. Unfortunately none of that matters, as the Madoff scandal has left the Mets with no budget at all. But we could only be that lucky, as the Wilpons actually made money off the ponzi scheme, and are prepared to invest considerable funds in the aforementioned "good" free agents, actually landmines--likely to fizzle out the second they cash their signing bonuses.

Fortunately, as is their nature, these writers have made the solution equally clear. The fundamental weaknesses remain minor league depth and fielding, so all the minor the leaguers should be sent post-haste to Toronto in a package for a pitcher who will likely walk after the season's end. Whatever money remains will be divided equally between paying-off some unwitting team to take our defensively-challenged secondbaseman and committing another four years to his similarly inept replacement.

In reality, however, the Mets have considerable advantages in this market. Many teams are still looking to shed payroll after sub-par attendance. Several talented free agents have been forced to hit the market after disappointing seasons. The Mets have payroll room and two more years of criminal-underpayment of Wright and Reyes to play with. Instead of signing Jon Garland for upwards of $10MM, they should be inquiring on Bronson Arroyo, a pitcher with better stuff and even more durable track-record, who the Reds are trying desperately to give away. The advantage here is that the Mets get their "innings-eater" on a one-year deal, while gaining leverage in a trade for a player they'd actually want to build around, like Brandon Phillips. Potentially, the Mets could even get Aaron Harang, a solid starter, not quite the caliber of John Lackey--but close enough, for little additional cost. That's $30.25MM dollars to solve their rotation issues and add another "core" player, with a cheap talent cost and without the uncertainty of negotiation, or temptation to overpay.

Or maybe the Mets will just notice that pitchers better than Jon Garland and Jason Marquis are being desperately ditched by other teams, and get the hint that multi-year, multimillion dollar commitments to pitchers with marginal stuff rarely--if ever--end well. In the never-ending myopia of the Mets brass (and some of their fans), though, the injuries of last season will create a premium on durability. Undoubtedly some nightmarish, Oliver-Perez-part-deux scenario will develop where Jeff Wilpon and John Ricco conference call with "Scott Boras," who is really just Omar Minaya in the other room, forging fake term-sheets between Jon Garland and the Brewers, which he might "accidentally" leave in the fax machine on his way out.

Get Doug Davis, Claudio Vargas, Odalis Perez, Todd Wellemeyer, whomever. They'll give you the desired 200 generic innings at virtually no cost. Get Brandon Knight back from Korea. Livan. What? Yea, Captain Rubber Arm himself. Pop quiz: who had better peripherals last season: Jon Garland or Livan Hernandez? The answer may surprise you.

Alternatively, the Mets could take Magglio Ordonez and his $18MM salary off Dave Dombrowski's hands for the inside track in negotiating a Edwin Jackson or Curtis Granderson trade. Same basic idea: rightfield is hardly a sure thing, whether you believe in Jeff Francoeur or not, and the Mets get to leverage their financial advantage to add a player for the long-term.

Both of those scenarios fill the Mets "holes," both now and in 2011-12, with a little extra cash to burn. Some have speculated that the Wilpon's budget for this season is closer to $20MM, but with so many contracts finally expiring and the luxury-tax threshold rising closer ~$160MM, they can really spend up to $50MM, if they so choose. Let's just take the first trade-scenario, the Reds one, and kind of speculate on a possible team. $31MM leaves $10MM, for the sake of being realistic, which the Mets can use to sign Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus. Those two are solid complements to Pagan and Murphy, who have middle of the order power, when healthy. If the Mets traded for Magglio and E-Jax they could add a Sheets/Harden tandem to the rotation, which gives them four players with ace-potential. Or they could negotiate a backloaded John Lackey contract, not my favorite idea, but definitely an improvement.

Ordonez, Harang, and Arroyo are basically solid-role players with ripcords for 2011. Adding another cheap "core" caliber player also seems more necessity than luxury with Wright and Reyes' costs rising. The Mets added many high-risk, high-upside players in the 2009 offseason, but did so without accounting for the risk. Oliver Perez has no buyout. Francisco Rodriguez will destroy the payroll in 2012. J.J. Putz had an buy-out, but was a waste of talent. Now faced with high-upside free agents available on the cheap, they seem resolved to do the only thing worse: invest long-term in high-risk, no-upside players. In the year 2011, the Mets graduate their best hitting prospects in 8 years, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, but are unable to complement them with a decent leftielder or bullpen, because no one will take on Jason Marquis' contract. Wait, I know how this ends. I'll take the gap-year, please.

Hot Stove kickoff: The Roster Matrix

DanUpBaby — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:00:52 -0000

2010 ROSTER MATRIX
2009 EDITION

STARTERS	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $4.25m	lugo ut $400K	carpenter rhp $14.5m	franklin rhp $3.25m
pujols 1b $16m	greene ut $400K	lohse rhp $8.9m	mcclellan rhp $400k
schumaker 2b $2.5m	mather of $400K	wainwright rhp $4.65m	motte rhp $400K
freese 3b $400k	jay of $400K	garcia lhp $400k	boggs rhp $400K
ryan ss $400k	pagnozzi c $400K	hawksworth rhp $400k	kinney rhp $750k
craig lf $400k	stavinoha of memphis	lynn rhp memphis	miller lhp $2m
rasmus cf $400k	hoffpauir 2b memphis	walters rhp memphis	reyes lhp $2m
ludwick rf $5.5m			scherer rhp memphis
TOTAL $29.85m	TOTAL $2m	TOTAL $28.85m	TOTAL $9.2m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$69.9m

This is, to borrow a phrase from my home state's recent deficit-wrangling, the doomsday matrix; no free agent signings—no minor league free agent signings, for that matter—no long-term deals for players inside our out, no state fair. Luckily for the Cardinals, this skeleton budget is the result of money coming off the books, not being wrung out of it—$17.5 million from Troy Glaus and Khalil Greene, $12 million from Christy Mathewson and Todd Wellemeyer. I borrowed the arbitration guesses from flim's Table of Commitments over in fanposts; other raises, accounting for around $7 million, are due Molina, Carpenter, Lohse, Wainwright, Franklin, and Reyes.

Obviously the team isn't going to look like this, but if the Cardinals pared all the way back this is what they'd get.

Things that won't stand:

The free bench. The infield looks good, though Thurston might take a spot from either Tyler Greene (thereby leaving, I don't know, Jason Motte as the second best defensive shortstop on the club [great arm]) or a middle reliever. The outfield—well, that gets to be a problem, especially if the Cardinals don't spend the bulk of their found money resigning Matt Holliday. Mather is coming off a serious wrist injury, and Jon Jay, who hit .281/.338/.394 in the PCL last year, only wishes he was. I imagine one of the spare outfielders will be making the league minimum, but not both. Catching... well, who knows; La Russa seems to prefer a backup catcher who is established in his mediocrity, but he's made room for a no-hit minor leaguer with an inexplicably good reputation in the recent past.
Allen Craig, starting outfielder. I get the love for Allen Craig, but I'm not sure I'd blame the Cardinals for this one; his MLE last year, in the best season of his career to this point, was still just .278/.319/.440. He deserves every shot at a bench role, and I'd imagine he gets one, but the Cardinals can't cry poor enough to justify going into the season with a converted third baseman whose MiLB slugger credentials are not fully established as their starter in left field, which is not exactly a tough position to fill.
Back-of-the-rotation man-stew. Jaime Garcia should be plugged into the fifth slot, but Hawksworth/Walters et al are just close enough to fifth starter material—fifth starter material being, generally, the stuff they made my Wal-Mart TV stand out of—that the Cardinals should take the chance to fill the fourth spot with one of the relatively high-upside plays Chuck outlined on Sunday. (My personal favorites are Harden [the obvious class of the class, I'd think] and, in lowercase for now, Ben Sheets.)

But this is a solid, cheap base from which the Cardinals can build. If anything, it shows that the Cardinals could theoretically build a team around two high salary guys (say, Pujols and Holliday) and stay above replacement level all the way around. The 2010 Cardinals have, at a glance, four non-bullpen starters who are potentially above average contributors; I have to think that's the baseline for any team employing both Pujols and Holliday. Getting Holliday in the first place made that a little more difficult, but how 2009's draft plays out will be extremely important.

It's All Mark DeRosa's Fault: MLB Division Series Day 5 Preview, Sunday 10/11

Al — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Matt Sayles - AP

We still love ya, DeRo.

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When you read this, keep in mind it is written with tongue planted firmly in cheek.

The Cardinals got swept out of their Division Series with the Dodgers and looked, in doing so, just about as bad as the Cubs did in a similar sweep a year ago.

Common thread? It has to be Mark DeRosa, the only former Cub on St. Louis' Division Series roster (Todd Wellemeyer wasn't on that roster). DeRosa played in 13 postseason games with the Braves from 2001-2003. His team won eight of them. But since DeRo became a Cub, his team has lost nine straight postseason games (ten, if you include the final game of the 2003 Braves/Cubs NLDS). It's got to be his fault. Even DeRosa himself joked about it:

"It might be me," former Cub Mark DeRosa said afterward as he saw Chicago media headed his way. "It better not be because I'm not retiring for a while."

Then he thought and added with a slight smile:

"This is three years in a row. It is me."

Gee, and the Cubs might think about bringing him back as a free agent?

Of course, DeRosa could more easily have blamed his teammates, because he had more hits in the series (five) than any other Cardinal, including Albert Pujols.

"It is what it is," DeRosa said. "I'll keep grinding."

Taking my "facetious cap" off, obviously, the Cardinals had problems that started at the end of the regular season, losing 8 of their last 10 games. As the link above states, DeRosa had a fine series, hitting .385. In fact, he hit .333 in two division series for the Cubs (7-for-21 with two doubles and a HR) and overall in 58 postseason at-bats, he's hit .358/.414/.566, numbers any team would take over a total of 22 games. And yes, I'd take DeRosa back as a free agent if the price were right.

Speaking of the Cardinals, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan are free agents. Supposedly, the internal rift between them and Cardinals management has been healed, but Phil Rogers says the Reds might be interested in them; ex-Cardinal GM Walt Jocketty, of course, is now in charge in Cincinnati. Rogers also writes:

The Brewers are telling teams they don't plan to trade Prince Fielder. They hope to get pitching back in trades for shortstop J.J. Hardy and possibly third base prospect Mat Gamel, a .302 hitter in five minor league systems who has been made expendable by the emergence of Casey McGehee, claimed on waivers from the Cubs last fall.

J.J. Hardy? Would the Brewers take Sean Marshall and maybe a pitching prospect for Hardy? I'd do that. Hardy had a down year and wound up in Triple-A for a while, but he is only 27 and just one year removed from a fine offensive season.

Complete info on today's playoff tripleheader after the jump.

Angels at Red Sox, 11 am CDT. Angels lead series 2-0. TV: TBS. Announcers: Don Orsillo and Buck Martinez

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Please visit our SB Nation Red Sox site Over The Monster and Angels site Halos Heaven.

Yankees at Twins, 6 pm CDT. Yankees lead series 2-0. TV: TBS. Announcers: Chip Caray and Ron Darling

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Please visit our SB Nation Twins site Twinkie Town and Yankees site Pinstripe Alley.

Phillies at Rockies, 9 pm CDT. Series tied 1-1. TV: TBS. Announcers: Brian Anderson and Joe Simpson

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Once again, no overflows scheduled today. If you need one, post it in the FanShot section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Playoff Worrying In Particular

DanUpBaby — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:30:19 -0000

by Jeff Curry - AP

2 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus (8) leaps over Milwaukee Brewers' Alcides Escobar, as Escobar steals third during the 10th inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in St. Louis. The Brewers won 9-7 in 10 innings. (AP Photo/Jeff Curry)

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Anybody can, and does, worry about the playoffs in general. But worrying about particular parts of the playoffs, especially tangentially relevant ones? That's the blogger's job.

No playoff roster surprises yet—Khalil Greene in his second comeback was rendered basically irrelevant by Julio Lugo's arrival and Tony La Russa's reluctance to move past the put-him-in-good-situations point on the comeback trail. From the first of August to the end of the season he'd played fewer than forty innings in the field, which is fewer than Troy Glaus played as a September call-up. The current arrangement leaves the Cardinals without a real backup shortstop, but Greene probably wouldn't have helped matters there, either; his play-by-play numbers, as one would expect of a guy dealing with serious emotional problems, moving on and off the DL, playing sparingly, were... almost as bad as Julio Lugo's.

What it does do is leave the Cardinals—Cardinals fans, really, since there seems to be no real internal debate about it—with an odd positional controversy. How healthy is Troy Glaus?

I don't know if I had any logical reason to be as surprised as I have been, but Glaus's brief comeback has been as spotty as I expected but in a totally different way than I'd anticipated. Some combination of his long, unexpected layoff, his size and shape, and the shoulder problems that were apparently keeping him from throwing three months ago had me expecting a loping slugger, our homegrown version of the PH-only Jim Thome the Dodgers acquired from the White Sox. While his usage did sometimes shake out that way, the results—as with Thome, but not Jason Giambi—were not there.

But his defense, when he was made to play defense, was a revelation. I didn't realize it until Glaus got back—middle infielders have been at the hot corner all year—but when Mark DeRosa plays third base, he looks like a second baseman. He's nimble out there, but his reflexes, his first move in either direction, just aren't natural. Sometimes he just doesn't make them. Glaus is a big, slow, heavy guy, but he moves immediately and aggressively toward balls; that almost-play on a barehander Sunday was something I wouldn't expect DeRosa to make—but it was also, before I saw him play, something I didn't expect New, Sedentary Glaus to make.

Unfortunately, if we're extrapolating from subjective observation and small samples (his UZR/150 is 125.3!) there's also the matter of his slow bat and his 130 professional at-bats in 2009. During his long rehab Glaus struggled at three different levels, peaking in an encouraging-but-not-very .216/.369/.392 at AAA. In the bigs he didn't have much room to work through a slump, if it's a slump, but he certainly hasn't looked as capable offensively as he does defensively. (Not that Glaus has ever looked like a worldbeater.)

So now the Cardinals are in an awkward position, at least if they want to press the issue: Play Glaus for his defense, even though he might not be able to hit? I can't say I ever expected to say something like that.

II.

While we're on the topic—I don't expect this to prove either really important or, in the end, determined in such a way that antagonizes the Viva El Birdos contingent. But B.J. Rains of the mothership knows how to make us worry: suggest that Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer are both candidates for the playoff pen:

The decision to go with 12 pitchers means that two of the four among Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson will be on the playoff roster. Hawksworth and Boggs, both rookies, are the likely choices to make the cut based on their performances and the number of their appearances down the stretch in relation to Wellemeyer and Thompson.

He's right: Brad Thompson hasn't appeared in a leveraged decision since the end of July, and Wellemeyer—well, no. Not Wellemeyer. Hawksworth has shown up twice as often as either of them in the second half of the season, and Boggs's startling bullpen fastball—I haven't seen a bullpen transformation as complete and abrupt as his in some time, no matter where he ends up permanently—is certainly a higher upside play than WonderBrad.

But mentioning it at all, even as a theoretical possibility... it gives me the shakes.

III.

I've saved the most worrisome for last; so finally we've gotten to Joel Pineiro's tentative transformation back into Joel Pineiro. The strikeouts are fine; they're up, actually. The home run rate had to come up eventually, though I didn't expect him to give up 46% of his seasonal home run total in the last month of the year. But his command, the supernatural aversion to walks that characterized the first five months of the Joel Pineiro Comeback Spectacular—gone. Four strikeouts and less than one walk per nine is Christy Mathewson; Four and a half strikeouts and two walks is last season's version of Braden Looper.

That guy is a useful pitcher, even in the playoffs, but for now that's what I'll be expecting, so that when Joel Pineiro turns in a shutout and the Cardinals advance to the NLCS I will be pleasantly surprised.

Brewers 9, Cardinals 7

KLSnow — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:08:45 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Chris Narveson throws during the fourth inning Sunday.

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W: Trevor Hoffman (3-2)
L: Todd Wellemeyer (7-10)
S: John Axford (1)

HR: Prince Fielder 2 (46)

MVP: Prince Fielder (+.482)
LVP: Chris Smith (-.329)

Win Expectancy Graph
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They certainly made the last one interesting.

Powered by Prince Fielder's two home runs, including a go-ahead shot in the ninth, the Brewers appeared to be ready to complete a three game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis, and untuck one final time for 2009. Fielder's three hits in the game left him with a 2009 batting average of .2994, but also in sole possession of second place on the franchise list for most home runs in a season, with 46.

Alas, it was almost all for naught, as the Cardinals rallied to tie the game on Chris Smith in the eighth and again on Trevor Hoffman in the bottom of the ninth, costing him his 38th save and sending the game to extra innings. Then, in the tenth, Jody Gerut drove in the winning run on an infield single, scoring Alcides Escobar with the winning run. Ryan Braun's RBI double drove in another run as the Cardinals imploded defensively,

Jeff Suppan started today's game and went just two innings, allowing one run on two hits, but Chris Narveson picked things up from there, allowing just one additional run over 4.1 innings of work, giving the Brewers an opportunity to run out to a 6-1 lead. With Hoffman already having pitched, John Axford pitched a scoreless tenth to pick up his first major league save.

May the Smoltz be with us

chuckb — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

John Smoltz's carefully crafted plan to become a Cardinal is displayed here as he gives up another extra base hit to a Red Sox opponent. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson, File)

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I did a piece on this just a few days ago but we’re going to break it down a little more today. First, it’s important that we note that he was dfa’d for a reason – primarily, that his ERA was a robust 8.32. There’s, of course, a lot of bad in there to create an 8.32 ERA. Those aren’t accidents. He’d given up 59 hits in 40 innings. Batters are batting .341/.384/.584 against him this year. He’s given up 1.80 HR/9 this season. Lefties have annihilated Smoltz to the tune of .440/.490/.758. Ugh! His fastball is down from a career average 93.4 mph and 92.5 mph last year to 91.3 mph this year. As a result, Smoltz is more than 16 runs below average w/ the fastball this year. Imagine if he’d been throwing it more than 42.1% of the time! It’s not all terrible, however.

His BABIP is a whopping .390, unsustainably high for a guy w/ just an 18.1% LD rate. His LD rate (18.1%) is lower than his career LD rate – 20.1%. He’s having an unusually high percentage of fly balls leave the ballpark – 14.8%. Combine that w/ the BABIP and it’s not difficult to argue that he’s been a victim of bad luck. His K rate this year is pretty strong (7.43) and his BB rate is better than his career average. Perhaps most importantly, he’s only pitched 40 innings so far this year. As Dave Cameron argues, anything can happen in 40 innings so there’s no need to get worked up about the high homer rate and the reduced speed on his fastball. The terrible lefty splits? That’s in a grand total of 101 PAs. Talk about a small sample. It’s about 4 games worth of PAs. Would any of us contend that Carp was washed up based on 4 bad starts?

I mentioned a week ago that Smoltz has been fantastic in innings 1 and 2 and in his first 25 pitches of the game. Batters have splits of .250/.342/.313 the first time through the order against him. To me, that’s more comforting if he’s going in the bullpen but, in light of the news that Tony and Duncan want him starting games, it’s slightly less comforting. That said, he’s still seeing swinging strikes on 16% of his strikes – a percentage higher than any of our starters – including Wainwright and Carpenter.

It’s tough to know what to expect from Smoltz. As I said, he’s thrown just 40 innings this year and it’s difficult to place a lot of emphasis on what he did last year, considering the fact that he threw just 28 innings in ’09. In ’07, he was 40 and threw 205 innings. He had a 4.19 K/BB ratio and a 0.79 HR rate. He was pretty tough on lefties -- .262/.327/.382 – in 432 PAs. That’s more than 4 times as many PAs against lefties as he’s had so far this season. As you’d expect, he was much better the 2nd and 3rd times through the order and was very good through pitch number 75. Still, he is 2 years older now and you’d expect the drop-off from age 40 to age 42 to be pretty steep. While we shouldn’t place a lot of emphasis on what’s happened so far this season, it’s probably foolish to look to his #s in 2007 as any kind of barometer on what to expect either.

Here’s what we do know – until he went on the D.L., Duncan preferred that Todd Wellemeyer reclaim the 5th spot in the rotation. I, for one, don’t expect Smoltz to be the Smoltz of old and while I’m adamantly opposed to Todd Wellemeyer ever throwing another meaningful pitch for the Cards (at least until he proves he can handle a bullpen role!), if Smoltz pitches the way Wellemeyer has this season, we’ll at least have the chance to win some of his starts. He wouldn’t be good, but we’d have a chance if he gave up, say…4 runs in 6 innings. So let’s compare the 2 this year:

	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	LD%	GB%
Smoltz	4.94	7.43	2.03	1.70	18.1	42.8
Wellemeyer	5.23	5.67	4.07	1.36	21.3	36.5

and vs. lefties:

	BA	OBP	SLG	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
Smoltz	.440	.490	.758	3.78	6.48	3.24	8.06
Wellemeyer	.342	.421	.606	5.92	5.92	2.59	7.60

Is there really any reason to think Smoltz would be any worse than Wellemeyer? Granted, we’re not setting the bar terribly high but, for a 5th starter, it could be worse. It could be Mike Maroth circa 2007. Yeah, those homers against lefties are troubling but he had 3 starts in Boston and one each in Baltimore, New York, and Texas. A lot of homers fly out of those parks. In fact, 3 of his 8 homers came in 1 start in Texas and another 2 came in 1 start in Yankee Stadium. 2 of the other 3 came in 1 start in Baltimore and the last homer came in Fenway. The 8 homers could be a little misleading considering the teams against which he pitched and the parks where he pitched.

I still say that we’ve got a hole in right-handed relief but maybe Hawksworth can fill it or maybe Smoltz can shift to the pen in the playoffs and fill the hole. Regardless, I think we’re better – if only by a little bit – w/ Smoltz on the roster and I think there are many reasons to believe he’ll be better than he was w/ the Red Sox. As Dave Cameron said (in the fangraphs article linked above):

A bad ERA over 40 innings, driven by a high BABIP and HR/FB rate, does not mean that Smoltz is finished any more than it means that Weaver is finished. And, of course, no one thinks that Jered Weaver is washed up. Cardinal fans just picked up a pretty good pitcher for the league minimum, thanks to the continued overestimation of the usefulness of ERA. The sooner people realize that it's an obsolete pitching statistic, the better off baseball will be.

Brewers Pitching Philosophy: A Single Is Not Enough

TheJay — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:00:11 -0000

One week ago, roguejim wrote a post about just how lousy the Brewers starting rotation has been. Here are some more numbers showing just how hard Brewers starters have been hit.

Check out the fifteen highest slugging averages allowed by MLB pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched in 2009. Note: these numbers are through August 17, so Parra's start last night and those of anyone else on the list are not included.

Name	SLG	IP	ERA	HR	W-L
Josh Geer	.561	102.2	5.96	27	1-7
Jeff Suppan	.512	114.1	5.27	18	5-8
Trevor Cahill	.506	139.1	4.97	25	6-12
Jeremy Guthrie	.506	140.0	5.66	28	7-12
Todd Wellemeyer	.498	112.2	5.67	17	7-9
Braden Looper	.496	143.0	5.03	30	10-6
Brian Moehler	.495	113.1	5.40	16	7-9
Jamie Moyer	.491	123.1	5.47	22	10-9
Livan Hernandez	.491	135.0	5.47	16	7-8
Armando Galarraga	.487	129.0	5.16	21	6-10
Brad Penny	.482	127.2	5.22	17	7-7
Jason Hammel	.479	118.0	4.73	11	7-7
Joe Saunders	.477	136.2	5.33	24	9-7
Aaron Harang	.471	155.1	4.35	24	6-14
Manny Parra	.470	107.2	6.44	12	8-8

The Brewers are the only team with more than one pitcher on that list and they very nearly had four. Jeff Suppan has seen his reputation improve with time spent on the DL, but Dave Bush has made out pretty well, too. He only had 81 innings pitched when he was placed on the DL, but his .534 slugging average allowed would have placed him second. If you add nineteen perfect innings to his season line, his resulting .450 still comes in 27th. If you're curious, Yovani Gallardo's .371 is 79th out of 102 qualifying pitchers.

I know including W-L records in anything is heresy these days, but it gives me an excuse to post this snippet originally found in the August 16 Elias Says column:

Braden Looper handed a 5-4 seventh-inning lead to the bullpen, but the Astros rallied against Brewers relievers to post an 8-5 win at Milwaukee. It was the fifth time this season that relievers relinquished a lead in a game in which Looper was in line for a victory. The only starting pitchers in the majors with more blown wins this season than Looper are Randy Wolf (7), Gavin Floyd (6) and Looper's mound opponent on Sunday, Roy Oswalt (6).

Strange to think that Looper could right now be the worst 15+ game winner in recent memory.

The October Team

DanUpBaby — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 06:17:11 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Harold Ramis, right, celebrates with teammate Brendan Ryan after hitting a walk-off home run in the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres in a baseball game, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009 in St. Louis. The Cardinals come from behind to beat the Padres 7-5. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Good to see He Who Shall Not Be Named Correctly hitting the baseball hard, walk-off or no walk-off. (But walk-off, if I have a choice.) Now that he's begun to hit again—.346/.393/.500 in his last seven games—we can try out the new narrative: he didn't hit anything for a while, then he began to pull the ball, in the accepted Smooth Home Run fashion, for a week or so, to no effect. It's too easy to attribute the lack of lift on his fly balls to his much-reported weight loss, because it is basically attribution by connecting the only two things we know about him... which is to say that my head said no, but my Scout's Gut said yes. And now, having begun the slow march back to playing weight, voila: his good swings become enough to make even Jay Randolph alert and excited.

It's so easy, which is why it probably doesn't mean anything. But there you are.

Anyway, Rasmus's bizarre splits, which almost explicitly defy foolhardy bloggers to see a pattern—two bad months to start the season that are almost identically valuable but do it in completely different ways, one great month with no walks, and now a July that follows the May pattern (low OBP/high power) and an August that follows April (high OBP/no power)—got me thinking about one of the best arguments put forth during the Tigers-in-Three moment of 2006: the team that won 83 games in the regular season was not the one that won 11 in October.

The team that, GOB willing, gets to the NLDS this October will—more obviously this time—not be the one that went 25-31 in May and June. But what does that mean?

THE GOOD

1. Matt Holliday >> Chrick Dunkiel

This, of course, is the big one: Matt Holliday replaces two guys who, luckily for this baseball writer, have sucked almost identically hard over the course of the season. What's he do in a short series that the Platoon of Despond wouldn't? For one thing, he gets them there; his extraordinary performance over the first 20 games of this deal has been worth an incredible 1.5 wins over a replacement player. One example of a replacement player is... Rick Ankiel, whose performance to this point in the season has put him exactly at 0.0.

Even in a brief series, and even accounting for Holliday's inevitable descent from Mount Olympus, that kind of boost is difficult to overestimate. Ankiel's MLVr—the fraction of a run, per game, that a team would gain from plugging him into a lineup of average hitters—is -.118. Holliday's number last season (with the Cardinals this year it's 1.1) was .320.

That's the difference between, say, Albert Pujols and, uh, Matt Holliday. If a series were to go seven games that difference would be theoretically worth three runs. Losing Brett Wallace is going to hurt, and it's going to hurt for quite a while. But the difference between the absurdity that was the off-season Matt Holliday discussion and the trade that actually happened last month is that Rick Ankiel's collapse has made what would have been worth less than a run per playoff series into something that could influence the outcome of the postseason.

2. The Infield Shuffle >> The Old Infield Shuffle

Over the first two months of the season it would be charitable to say that Skip Schumaker played second base badly—if the resounding agreement of UZR and Dewan's fielding runs was any indication, he played second base like no one who has been allowed to play second every day has done in the last five years. He played it like an outfielder, and not a good outfielder—Tris Speaker, the Gray Eagle, was said to play center field from just behind second base, so close that he was a factor on double play balls. Skip Schumaker just stood behind second base.

Around June, Joe Thurston found himself in a similar situation. After his surprise April, and his surprisingly decent May, he became the de facto starter and found himself hitting like Skip Schumaker played second base. He managed four extra base hits in two months of full-time starts, during which he hit .220. His OPS hung around .570 (but it's OBP heavy!)

As if that weren't enough, the Cardinals, through May, had committed themselves pretty thoroughly to Khalil Greene, who had seemed like a pretty thrifty upgrade in March. I don't know if you've heard about this, but he struggled with anxiety problems, and also the bat, hitting .171/.213/.220 in May before leaving the team. The My Name is Brendan, this is My Brother Greene, and This is My Other Brother Greene platoon split starts at the position for a few weeks until both Greenes fell out of the picture, and everyone realized suddenly that Brendan Ryan had used his time in Memphis to become Ozzie Smith.

Unfortunately, he's not an era-adjusted Ozzie Smith—shortstops can hit now, due to a 1992 Supreme Court decision on the subject (People v. Ordoñez), so .284/.324/.377 is not quite so impressive as it was in 1989. But the combination makes him an above average player, the likes of which the Cardinals thought they'd signed up for when they traded two bottom cards off their Inexhaustible Supply of righty relievers.

Meanwhile, at second base, Schumaker's UZR/150 began its slow ascent from the Mariano Duncan Trench. In April and May it hovered around -30; in June, -19; now, as of the most recent Fangraphs update, it's -11. All the while his raw UZR has stuck between -8 and -9. I don't know if this makes him average, but even mediocre is a major improvement. The trade for Julio Lugo, and the return of Khalil Greene, also means that he never has to face a left-handed pitcher again.

Finally, at third base, the Cardinals replaced Joe Thurston with Mark DeRosa, who managed to avoid Cardinals infamy by not missing the second half of the season with a wrist injury. The Lugo and Holliday acquisitions mean that DeRosa's versatility (he was originally cast as a solution in the outfield, too) no longer makes him uniquely suited for the Cardinals, and his fielding at third is erratic as advertised, but the combined acquisitions have meant that Thurston's done little but replace Schumaker at second base, something his above average glove there warrants.

This total recasting of the infield is Mozeliak's secret coup of the year; he came into June with a catastrophic loss of third base depth and a bizarre experiment at second. In two moves he managed to fill third base, provide some insurance at short, and hedge against Schumaker's poor defense and complete inability to hit left-handed pitchers. That makes a huge difference now, and it will in Hypothetical October, too.

3. Fifth Starter Question Mark

Yes: a question mark for the fifth starter is good news. Todd Wellemeyer has spent most of the season being an emphatic exclamation point. Q: Will the Cardinals starter give up as many runs as innings pitched? A: Wellemeyer!

But his eclipse means a few things. For one thing, the Cardinals might get better-than-replacement-level performance out of his replacements down the stretch, which could make a difference in the still-tight standings. For another, having no set fifth starter means that La Russa won't be tempted to tinker with what are obviously the best four pitchers in his playoff rotation.

THE QUESTIONS

1. The right-handers

Watching Jason Motte pitch has become a terrifying proposition to me. It's not that I don't have faith in him, though I don't, at this point—it's that I'm sure there's still an excellent reliever lost somewhere in his career, and with every stomping mop-up outing I'm watching him on eggshells, hoping that he shows that 2008 form for one inning at a time.

His bad mop-up inning and his excellent partial inning over the weekend did a little rationalizing of his days-of-rest splits, which have, to this point, been held up as a beacon of hope. Unfortunately, when each is moving, even in a different direction, toward 6.00, that's not a good thing; after those mediating innings he's at 11.42 with no rest and 4.55 with. He's been bad on no days rest, not very good with it; he's sucked in a box, and with a fox, etc. etc.

But if it were just Motte struggling, the Cardinals would be in fine shape. But over the course of the season they've traded Chris Perez and Jess Todd and found out that Kyle McClellan has a serious control problem, one he simply does not strike out enough batters to overcome. If Ryan Franklin were to begin sucking (that is, more than he does now) any start that does not go past six innings will become Chinese-curse interesting in a hurry.

With Smoltz and Eduardo Sanchez both in the dismissive-response stage of the Elusive Mozeliak Answers continuum, the only hope for the right-handers is that Blake Hawksworth continues to pitch well—so far, so good—or that Jason Motte starts to. After all the activity it's a little difficult to watch a question be answered so passively, but the Cardinals are fresh out of excess faberge.

2. Kyle Lohse

I don't know what's wrong with Kyle Lohse, and westcoastbirdwatcher being banned and all I can only speculate, but since his lost June he's been occasionally effective but noticeably dull, in the opposite-of-sharp sense; his command is gone, his fastball is lost, and after his told-you-so April has come a told-you-so May, July, and August, as his season-making walk rate from 2008 has fallen almost perfectly to his career numbers.

Even if he continues to struggle, or just continues to be Kyle Lohse, this isn't a season-ender. In the playoffs, the Cardinals need either Pineiro or Lohse to look like a third starter. Joel appears to have that covered.

Unrelated, underreported note: those of you who join me in checking Gulf Coast League scores every so often will have noticed that one Joe Mather doubled in Quicksilver Jr. in their afternoon beatdown at the hands of the GCL Astros.

The GCL is just barely a minor league; nobody cares about the score, nobody watches the game, and were it not for the other group of differently-affiliated teenagers at the other end of the field there would be no stats kept at all. But it's good to see Mighty Joe/Joey Bombs/Bizarro Duncan taking some swings on his way back to earning those nicknames. This is step one to making the roster in 2010, though probably not as a third baseman.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:58:38 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Alcides Escobar talks with Willie Randolph during the first inning Wednesday.

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Some things to read while searching for a signature sign-off.

So, yesterday morning I skipped out early for an appointment, got back home, ate some breakfast, mowed the lawn, then sat down at my coffee table to check the comments on the Mug and discovered what might have been the biggest news day of the season, as the Brewers demoted J.J. Hardy to AAA, promoted Alcides Escobar, fired Billy Castro, designated Bill Hall for assignment and called up Jason Bourgeois. Adam McCalvy has reactions from the clubhouse, and here are several more reactions from around the web:

J.J. Hardy has until Friday to join the Sounds, and says he's looking forward to a few days off.
Brewed Sports was not pleased with that response.
Brewer Paradise Lost is one of many who suspects this move might have been made to prevent Hardy from becoming a free agent following the 2010 season. Hardy would have to remain in the minors past September 1 for the demotion to count against his service time, and it seems unlikely the Brewers will leave him there once rosters expand.
R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs isn't sure the Escobar-for-Hardy swap helps the Brewers this season, or helps Hardy's trade value down the road.
Meanwhile, Cash Kruth caught up with Bill Hall, who seemed upbeat about his situation and expects to be on a team again soon. With that said, this is the same guy who still thought he was the best third baseman in baseball a few weeks ago.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that at least one NL team is interested in trading for Hall.
Cincinnati Reds Blog sees the Hall situation as "a big opportunity for the Reds to pick up a talented player."
Billy Castro, who had been with the Brewers as a coach for nearly 18 years, left with no regrets. He may not get another chance to be a pitching coach, but it sounds like he'll always have a spot in the Brewer organization, if he wants it.
A Girl's View of the Brewers wonders if these moves will be enough to get the Brewers back on track.
Big League Stew accused the Brewers of waving the white flag on the 2009 season.
PocketDoppler says the Brewers are pushing the panic button.
Aaron Gleeman of Circling the Bases says the move likely came too late for the Brewers' playoff hopes.
Keep Turning Up the Heat says "these are some dark times in the Brewers organization," and doesn't agree with the decision to call up Escobar or fire Castro.
Quevedo at the Buffet doesn't get the timing or the logic behind the moves.
The Bucky Channel wonders why Alcides Escobar was only used sparingly and Jason Bourgeois wasn't used at all last night.

Meanwhile, the Brewers did actually play a game last night, and lost their second straight to the Padres, dropping their playoff chances to 2.9%, the first time all season they've fallen below 3%.

Things could get worse today, as they play a day game against the Padres, who are sending Cesar Carrillo to the mound to make his major league debut today. The Brewers are 0-4 this season in games where the opposing pitcher is making his debut. And, of course, they haven't been good in day games either, or in games played in June, July or August.

Doug Melvin may not be done dealing. The Brewers claimed Doug Davis off waivers from the D-Backs (h/t FanShot), giving the two teams 48 hours to work out a deal to bring him back to Milwaukee. Davis says it would be fun to return to Milwaukee, but Tom H. says it's unlikely to happen.

A bunch of news got lost in the shuffle with everything else that happened yesterday. Here are the important notes that got buried in today's game preview:

Both Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan are expected back before September 1.
Jesus Colome was available to pitch last night despite his bruised pinky finger.
Nick Green cleared waivers after being DFA'd and will remain in Huntsville.

One other minor league note to pass along today: Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times nominated Jeremy Jeffress for most disappointing minor leaguer in 2009.

On power rankings:

The Brewers jumped from 23rd to 20th in WhatifSports' rankings.
MLB FanHouse has the Brewers holding steady at 19.

Around baseball:

Angels: Released reliever Justin Speier.
Cardinals: Placed Todd Wellemeyer on the DL with elbow inflammation.
D-Backs: Placed Scott Schoeneweis on the DL with depression and released Tom Gordon.
Giants: Placed Rich Aurilia on the DL with ankle tendinitis.
Indians: Claimed R.J. Swindle off waivers from the Rays.
Mariners: Erik Bedard is expected to undergo shoulder surgery and miss the remainder of the season.
Marlins: Signed Esteban Yan to a minor league deal.
Pirates: Placed reliever Evan Meek on the DL with an oblique strain and claimed reliever John Meloan off waivers from the Rays.
Reds: Placed Scott Rolen on the DL with a concussion.
Royals: Acquired pitcher John Bannister from the Rangers.
Twins: Placed Glen Perkins on the DL with shoulder trouble and released Mark Grudzielanek.

By shuffling the deck in the bullpen a little bit this offseason the Brewers created some new problems, but at least they're done with this one: Reflections of Blue has had it with Guillermo Mota, who posted a 0.26 ERA over one 35.1 inning stretch and a 10.32 ERA since.

Here's something to ponder for all of you who want to make the case that J.J. Hardy should be moved to second or third base, Rickie Weeks should be moved to center field and Mat Gamel should play first base or right field: Will Carroll says a player playing out of position has a 30 percent greater chance of getting injured, based on unfamiliarity with the position.

Brian Anderson wants your help to raise money for the I Back Jack Foundation. Follow the link for more info on how you can help Jack Bartosz, a young man fighting neuroblastoma.

Speaking of causes that could use your money, UW-La Crosse, alma mater of former Brewers Jerry Augustine and Vinny Rottino, has raised enough money to keep the program alive for one more season, but is still on the chopping block.

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor homered in the ninth to extend his hitting streak to 28 games, but the Brewers still lost to the Orioles, 5-4.

Happy birthday today to Corey Patterson, who turns 30, and former Milwaukee Brave Tony Cloninger, who turns 69.

Drink up.