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Looking back at community projections: Second basemen

KLSnow — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Rickie Weeks tosses his bat to one of the five other Brewers to play his position in 2009. The bat was later stolen by Prince Fielder, who used it to win the Home Run Derby, if I recall correctly.

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Ok, after a day off for The Thinker, let's jump back into this with a look at second basemen:

Take a moment to think, once again, about what happened at second base for the Brewers, and the somewhat miraculous results. Early in the season, Rickie Weeks went down for the year and the Brewers were left with turmoil at the top of the order and at second base. Six players played second at one point or another for the Brewers, yet somehow the position was one of the team's most productive.

Projections:

Rickie Weeks
Projected: .257/.362/.425
Actual: .272/.340/.517

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Casey McGehee
Projected: ..279/.334/.393
Actual: .301/.360/.499

TheJay, while refusing to predict exactly who would end up playing in Weeks' place, nearly nailed a 2009 prediction for Weeks, saying: "Hey, someone has to figure he’ll both bash up his wrist again and hit about what he’s done so far in his career." Wekks was ahead of his career numbers at the time, but sure enough, a wrist injury ended his season significantly early.

Craig Counsell's playing time projection at this and the other infield positions will probably seem low, but keep in mind, Counsell wasn't actually re-signed for 2009 yet when we made these projections.

Finally, there's probably not a single player at any position we missed on more than Casey McGehee. Back in January, we collectively projected him to get roughly two and a half percent of the plate appearances at second base, and didn't project him to play third at all.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Rickie Weeks	80.2%	21.2%	-59%
Jason Bourgeois	6.1%	0%	-6.1%
Hernan Iribarren	5.6%	.4%	-5.2%
Alcides Escobar	2.7%	0%	-2.7%
Casey McGehee	2.7%	12.1%	+9.4%
Craig Counsell	2.2%	27.1%	+24.9%
Bill Hall	.5%	0%	-.5%
Felipe Lopez	0%	38.6%	+38.6%
Frank Catalanotto	0%	.5%	+.5%

Wow, look at that mess. I didn't even know how to sort this table to appropriately display the chaos. And yet somehow, it worked.

At this point in January, Jason Bourgeois had just wrapped up a long hitting streak in Mexico, and if you had told me the Brewers would use six second basemen in 2009 and he wouldn't be one of them, I would have been shocked. In a world where Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign, Bourgeois projected to be Weeks' top backup. Instead, he spent most of the season patrolling the outfield in Nashville.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.258	.354	.413	.767
Actual	.302	.378	.475	.852
Difference	+.044	+.024	+.062	+.085

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

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Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Probably misusing MLE: Where could the Brewers have done better?

KLSnow — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Looking for some idle speculation on the first Brewer-free Sunday afternoon since February? Here's something to play with.

Because of Jeff's brilliant work over at Minor League Splits, we can take any Brewer above rookie ball's minor league stats and get their MLE (major league equivalent), a baseline estimate of how they would have performed in the major leagues this season.

So without further adieu, here's a look at how Brewer minor leaguers might have performed in the majors in 2009, and how it compares to the players the Brewers actually used in their place.

Catcher

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Jonathan Lucroy	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.377/.416	.219/.307/.327	.634
Angel Salome	Nashville (AAA)	.288/.338/.420	.249/.285/.342	.627
J.R. Hopf	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.318/.363	.206/.258/.291	.549
Corey Kemp	Wisconsin (A-)	.269/.364/.379	.182/.239/.245	.484
Carlos Corporan	Nashville (AAA)	.217/.262/.285	.192/.230/.250	.480

Brewers used: Jason Kendall, who hit .241/.331/.305 (.636 OPS), and Mike Rivera, who hit .228/.326/.342 (.668 OPS)

This is likely the most obvious position where you can make a solid argument that one of the minor leaguers should have played over the guy the Brewers trotted out there. Kendall had a nice finish to 2009, batting .271/.370/.391 after August 7, but still only out OPS'ed the hypothetical performance of Jonathan Lucroy by two points, with Angel Salome not far behind him.

Beyond Lucroy and Salome, it's a long way down to the next level, though. Corey Kemp's 2009 performance was pretty impressive in Wisconsin, but he's easily the third best catcher in the system above rookie ball right now, and he's still a long way away.

Follow the jump for the other positions!

First Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Joe Koshansky	Nashville (AAA)	.218/.319/.441	.189/.267/.358	.625
Erick Almonte	Nashville (AAA)	.295/.367/.365	.253/.307/.301	.608
Kevin Melillo	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.344/.392	.207/.280/.309	.589
Steffan Wilson	Brevard Co. (A+)	.272/.352/.420	.208/.266/.308	.574
Brock Kjeldgaard	Wisconsin (A-)	.248/.340/.454	.167/.221/.278	.499

Clearly, none of these guys are even comparable to Prince Fielder, who posted a 1.014 OPS this season.

In fact, the complete lack of a viable first baseman in the upper levels of the minors is a little startling. If something were to happen to Fielder, the best internal options to replace him would almost certainly be in the big leagues now: Mat Gamel and/or Casey McGehee.

With that said, Steffan Wilson's performance in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is notable, and Brock Kjeldgaard had a decent offensive season overshadowed by the fact that he led his league in strikeouts for the second straight season.

Second Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Hernan Iribarren	Nashville (AAA)	.307/.360/.396	.269/.310/.335	.645
Shane Justis	Huntsville (AA)	.271/.339/.376	.225/.278/.309	.587
Eric Farris	Brevard Co. (A+)	.302/.344/.388	.238/.270/.304	.574
Brett Lawrie	Wisconsin (A-)	.275/.342/.438	.192/.232/.282	.514

These are the only four players above rookie ball who played a full season with second base as their primary position. The Brewers used Rickie Weeks (.857 OPS) and Felipe Lopez (.810 OPS) primarily at second, and obviously there's no comparison.

The upside is pretty low among the upper level guys: Iribarren had a nice season in AAA, but likely projects as little more than a utility/backup type in the majors. 2009 was Justis' first season as a Brewer. He's 26 years old in AA.

With that said, there's a lot of upside in the lower levels. Eric Farris had a very good season for Brevard County, and added 70 steals in 76 attempts. With that said, he's been leapfrogged in the organization by Brett Lawrie, who continues his rapid ascent toward the big leagues.

Third Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Adam Heether	Nashville (AAA)	.300/.398/.506	.256/.334/.409	.743
Mat Gamel	Nashville (AAA)	.281/.368/.479	.242/.309/.388	.697
Taylor Green	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.344/.372	.220/.276/.308	.584
Zelous Wheeler	Brevard Co. (A+)	.263/.365/.383	.199/.273/.283	.556
Juan Sanchez	Wisconsin (A-)	.249/.308/.318	.172/.207/.221	.428

The Brewers used Casey McGehee (.859 OPS), Craig Counsell (.766 OPS), Bill Hall (.606 OPS) and Mat Gamel (.760 OPS) at third.

Behold Adam Heether. While most of the talk about Brewer minor leaguers this season revolved around guys like Alcides Escobar, Gamel, Salome, Lucroy and Lawrie, Heether quietly outhit all of them. And while Craig Counsell had an incredible and unlikely bounce back season, Heether's MLE line is nearly comparable. He also played five positions this season to keep his bat in the lineup while Mat Gamel played third.

Behind him and Gamel, Taylor Green had a season to forget, and Zelous Wheeler's ability to get on base made him valuable in the Manatees' lineup. Sanchez was one of the last players drafted in the minor league phase of last year's Rule 5 draft, and played all over the diamond for Wisconsin and Brevard Co. despite never having played above the Gulf Coast League.

Shortstop

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Alcides Escobar	Nashville (AAA)	.298/.351/.411	.259/.301/.345	.646
Sergio Miranda	Brevard Co. (A+)	.297/.355/.380	.229/.272/.292	.564
Yohannis Perez	Huntsville (AA)	.262/.314/.353	.221/.259/.287	.546
Michael Garciaparra	Huntsville (AA)	.216/.302/.261	.184/.249/.223	.472
Brent Brewer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.226/.290/.291	.176/.224/.231	.455

The Brewers used J.J. Hardy (.659 OPS) and Alcides Escobar (.701 OPS)

Alcides Escobar's AAA performance and J.J. Hardy's service time status combined to be just enough to get Escobar into the big leagues for good back in August, and we'll see what happens from there.

Meanwhile, there's not much in the system behind Escobar. The next viable shortstop prospect behind him may very well be 2009 draft pick Josh Prince, who hit .263/.373/.313 between Helena and Wisconsin this season and stole 38 bases in 50 attempts. The Brewers have to be close to running out of patience with Brent Brewer, who repeated Brevard Co. in 2009 and was actually significantly worse in his second attempt.

Outfielders

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Brendan Katin	Nashville (AAA)	.244/.306/.506	.214/.262/.413	.675
Drew Anderson	Huntsville (AA)	.290/.368/.439	.241/.303/.350	.653
Logan Schafer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.312/.374/.441	.242/.288/.335	.623
Caleb Gindl	Brevard Co. (A+)	.284/.366/.469	.217/.277/.345	.622
Adam Stern	Huntsville (AA)	.280/.350/.374	.233/.288/.303	.591
John Raburn	Huntsville (AA)	.263/.370/.345	.218/.301/.267	.568
Chuck Caufield	Huntsville (AA)	.248/.312/.337	.210/.259/.280	.539
Lee Haydel	Brevard Co. (A+)	.278/.307/.343	.219/.241/.262	.503
Freddy Parejo	Huntsville (AA)	.239/.280/.314	.204/.237/.259	.496
Michael Vass	Wisconsin (A-)	.240/.307/.384	.164/.204/.249	.453

The Brewers used Ryan Braun (.938 OPS), Mike Cameron (.795), Corey Hart (.753), Frank Catalanotto (.728) and Jody Gerut (.672) in the outfield this season. And if they'd had to dig much farther into the organizational depth, it likely would have been a problem. Brendan Katin can mash a mistake, but his exceptionally low plate discipline (35 walks, 164 strikeouts, .305 OBP) will likely keep him from ever being a serious prospect.

Meanwhile, the top two outfielders in the Brewer system might both have played for Brevard County this season, as Logan Schafer won the FSL batting title and Caleb Gindl provided the power behind the Brewers' most successful affiliate this season. Among the top prospects, Schafer is also the only true center fielder: Adam Stern also played primarily in center this season, but was terrible defensively.

Lorenzo Cain, meanwhile, had a terrible 2009 season, and didn't even make the top ten to appear on this list. Before suffering a knee injury and after returning, Cain posted a .213/.287/.317 line between multiple levels this season, posting a .448 MLE OPS. Hopefully Cain reports to camp healthy next spring and prepared for a huge bounce back season.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:15:04 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Jason Kendall is congratulated by J.J. Hardy as he crosses home plate after hitting a ninth inning three-run home run Tuesday.

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Some things to read while improving your dental hygiene.

If you went to bed early last night (or simply fell asleep on the couch, as I almost did), you missed one of the season's most unlikely events: a ninth inning, game-tying three run home run from Jason Kendall, just his second of the season and just the second home run he's hit away from Minute Maid Park since August 15 of 2007. The blast raised his slugging percentage over .300 on the season and gave the Brewers new life, even if it only lasted for two innings.

The home run was cool, but it still wasn't enough to make Kendall a viable option as a starting catcher next season. Brewers Daily has a list of potential free agents who could take his place.

Casey McGehee's meeting with a specialist Monday confirmed what the Brewers suspected: He will undergo arthroscopic surgery after the season to remove some loose bodies in his knee (FanShot). He seems reluctant to undergo the procedure and worried about the problem returning, but is scheduled to meet with team doctor William Raasch this week to discuss it further. Meanwhile, the Brewers are advocating for McGehee to be Rookie of the Year.

Also noted in that story: Mike Burns' MRI revealed damage to his labrum, and he's still in Milwaukee and likely done for the season. Frank Catalanotto is also not with the team in Colorado: he left the team before the trip due to a death in the family. He'll miss the Colorado series but might return for the final series this weekend.

Meanwhile, Jeff Suppan returns to the mound tonight for his final start of the season, and hopes to finish strong. Dave Bush might have been a candidate to have his final start skipped, but with Burns still out and Josh Butler having been sent home, he'll get one more start on Saturday.

If you're having a hard time getting excited for these final few games, Tyler Maas has some reasons for you to care. If nothing else, it's still baseball, and you're going to spend October-February missing it.

Here are some milestones to watch for, if nothing else: Ryan Braun needs six hits over five games to become just the fourth Brewer to reach 200 hits in a season, and as Seamheads notes, Prince Fielder is just a few points short of joining him in the .300-30-100 club. Assuming Fielder plays all of the remaining games and gets four ABs in each, he'd need to go 9-for-20 to reach .300.

How incredible has Trevor Hoffman been this season? MLB Trade Rumors has a look at closers who will be free agents this offseason, and Hoffman is clearly having the best season, leading free agents-to-be in ERA, BB/9, Hits/9, saves and fewest pitches thrown.

If you're looking for a reason why Brewer pitchers are so hittable this season, you could blame the fact that they're dead last in baseball in average velocity. With that said, the Angels, Twins, Phillies and Cardinals are all also ranked in the 20s, so maybe it's not everything.

On Power Rankings and whatnot:

WhatifSports dropped the Brewers one spot to #17.
The Hardball Times has the Brewers at #19.
Andy Seiler has the Brewers drafting 14th in his 2010 draft projection. There's little to no risk of the Brewers dropping too far by winning this week: The next team behind them is the Mariners, who are 4 games better than the Crew.

Today's (mostly) non-Brewers section has something for everyone:

Do you love complaining about the Brewers and also find the act of composing a haiku to be strangely relaxing? If so, Babes Love Baseball has a contest for you.
Do you enjoy spending seven minutes trying to force your brain to work, then banging your head against the desk when you miss obvious answers? Sporcle challenges you to name the wins leaders from the 1990s. (I got 12/24, which will almost certainly win the "before 7 am" division.)
Do you enjoy pointless speculation about a player whose future won't be determined for months? DRaysBay thinks the Rays may non-tender Gabe Gross this offseason.
Are you looking for an alternative to the real Hall of Fame, as an opportunity to continue to debate the merits of a player whose Hall eligibility has passed? More Hardball has inducted Ted Simmons into theirs.
Are you looking for an opportunity to feel better about your pathetic life by doing something small to improve someone else's? Miller Park Drunk wants you to help replace someone's stolen grill.

I mentioned Rob Deer's 49th birthday yesterday, but my tribute was nothing compared to this one at The Daily Something. As such, I feel perfectly comfortable using their link to cover the fact that I don't have any Brewer birthdays today.

In fact, that's all I have for you today, unless you'd like to witness The Running of the Quevedo.

Drink up.

Just Win, Baby: Cubs vs. Brewers Preview, Wednesday 9/16, 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 21:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Geo has started hitting. Keep up the good work.

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Alfonso Soriano's knee surgery was successful, and:

Soriano is expected to join the Cubs in Milwaukee next week to begin his rehab. He will spend three weeks with the team, then work out another three weeks at the Cubs' academy in the Dominican Republic when he returns home for the offseason.

Soriano was placed on the 15-day DL. Can anyone explain why a team would bother to do that after the rosters expand on September 1? There's no need to make room for another player, so why put him on the DL? Also from that link:

[Sam] Fuld showed up at Wrigley Field wearing a protective brace after he injured his wrist making a diving catch of Frank Catalanotto's fly ball to end the Brewers' fifth inning in the Cubs' 2-0 win Monday night.

Fuld may be out for a while, or, as he says later in the article:

"I could be ready to play in a couple days," Fuld said. "We'll just wait to see what happens. I'm not ready to give up on the season by any means."

If he can't come back:

[Lou] Piniella said if Fuld is going to be sidelined for an extended period of time, the club will call up another outfielder. However, the only Minor League team still playing is Double-A Tennessee, which is in the Southern League playoffs. Two possibilities are Tyler Colvin, the Cubs' No. 1 pick in the 2006 First-Year Player Draft, and James Adduci.

Thankfully, the Cubs didn't listen to Carrie. As first posted in dat cub fan daver's FanShot earlier this afternoon, the Cubs have called up So Taguchi and he'll be in town in time for tonight's game. Taguchi is no superstar, and he hit only .248 this year at Iowa, and he's 40. But he can still play the field and pinch-hit. He'll be helpful.

Per Twittermyer, same lineup as yesterday:

Theriot, ss; Fukudome, cf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Soto, c; Bradley, rf; Fontenot, 2b; Scales, lf; Harden, p

Oh, and this is fun.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Rich Harden Cubs	vs.	Braden Looper Brewers

9-8	W-L	12-6
4.04	ERA	4.77
168	SO	90
64	BB	58
23	HR	34
vs. Mil	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-8	26	25	0	0	0	0	138.0	117	69	62	23	64	168	4.04	1.31

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Braden Looper	12-6	30	30	0	0	0	0	173.2	190	100	92	34	58	90	4.77	1.43

Braden Looper has had a strange year. He's 12-6, but with a high 4.77 ERA. That's because the Brewers have given him 5.6 runs of support per start, which is fourth-most in the National League. He's pitched well twice against the Cubs this year, both times facing Rich Harden, with a win and a no-decision, but has also allowed 34 home runs, which is the most in the major leagues (by four). Only two of those HR were hit by a Cub -- both by Milton Bradley. So, step up tonight, Milton, and hit Looper hard again. Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto have also homered off Looper.

Rich Harden has also had an odd season -- we have discussed his extreme home/road and day/night splits here on several occasions. He's done best in home games and night games, so you'd think tonight would be a good chance for him to redeem his last start, since it's a home night game. Harden beat the Brewers in a matchup with Looper on April 10 in Milwaukee (link above), but got hit hard in the rematch with him on July 4 at Wrigley (link above). Current Brewers hitters are hitting only .195 (17-for-87) against Rich.

Today's game is on WCIU, which means if you aren't in metro Chicago, you probably won't see it, unless you have MLB.TV or EI, in which case you'll get the FSN Wisconsin feed. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

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Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball.

Once again, just two overflow threads today -- 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT. If there's a need for another one, please post as a FanShot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Cubs 13, Brewers 7

KLSnow — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 03:28:46 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Mike Cameron provided a rare bright spot tonight. Everything else pretty much sucked.

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W: Aaron Heilman (3-3)
L: Yovani Gallardo (12-12)

HR: Geovany Soto (11)

MVP: Mike Cameron (+.185)
LVP: Yovani Gallardo (-.350)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

So much for the wind blowing in.

Despite hitting just one home run, the Cubs managed 13 runs on eleven hits, twelve walks and three hit batsmen tonight and, after keeping it interesting in the early innings, blew away the Brewers tonight. Perhaps tonight's biggest story was the game's painstaking pace: It was played in a brisk 3 hours and 17 minutes.

The Brewers fell behind 4-0 early, but managed to score five in the fifth, capped by a bases loaded single by Mike Cameron to take a brief lead at 5-4. The Cubs responded by scoring a run in the bottom half, five more in the sixth and two more in the seventh.

Yovani Gallardo didn't have much going for him tonight. For the sixth straight appearance, Gallardo threw 100+ pitches but couldn't last past the sixth inning, allowing seven runs on 12 baserunners in just 5.1 innings. Todd Coffey and Carlos Villanueva couldn't do much better. On the up side, John Axford made his major league debut in the eighth inning, and proceeded to load the bases and walk in a run, the Brewers' 19th of the season, one short of the franchise record.

At the plate, Alcides Escobar picked up his first major league triple, and Frank Catalanotto (who briefly played second base) also tripled in the ninth, but the Brewers managed just six other hits, with no Brewer collecting more than one. For the Cubs, two players finished the game with four walks: Derrek Lee and Ryan Theriot.

Cubs Ride Outstanding Starting Pitching To 2nd Win In Row, 2-0 Over Brewers

Al — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:36:57 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Great catch, Sam!

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One thing you cannot criticize about the 2009 Cubs is their starting pitching.

Cubs starters are riding 14 consecutive scoreless innings after Ryan Dempster threw eight superb frames in a 2-0 win over the Brewers. Combined with the Giants' 9-1 win over the Rockies, the Cubs crept to within 6.5 games of the wild-card lead with 20 games remaining.

Yes, I know it's still a longshot, uphill climb, whatever else on the cliché list you'd like to call it. But as long as there is still a chance for postseason play, I hope the Cubs play just the way they did last night -- because in general, outstanding pitching shuts down good hitting in October. The Cubs have had excellent performance out of their starting pitchers all year; last night's eight shutout innings from Dempster was the 86th quality start of the season, tied with the Braves for second in the NL, one behind the Rockies. (Comparison point: last year's 97-win Cub team had 84 quality starts the entire season.) And that's with having one starter (Randy Wells) play the first month of the year in Triple-A and the other four all having stints on the disabled list.

Carlos Marmol finished up with a scoreless inning for his 13th save. Though Marmol does have four blown saves this year, he has none since officially being named closer in mid-August. He did issue a walk, which appears typical for him this year; command and control will be things he'll have to work on in the offseason. I was reminded last night of the way Mitch Williams closed out games for the 1989 division champs; Williams walked 52 in 81.2 innings and saved 36 games despite a 1.51 WHIP (and ten blown saves!). Closing was a different animal in that era -- 20 of Williams' saves were more than one inning in length -- but maybe the Cubs have another pitcher who can close out games despite having imperfect command. Marmol, at least, rarely gives up hits, allowing only 38 hits (and only one home run) in 68.2 innings.

The game flew by (2:15, one minute longer than the shortest nine-inning game of the year on September 2) on a flawless 76-degree September evening, with almost no wind. I had to laugh at the boxscore description of the wind as "1 MPH"; how do they measure something that small? The flags weren't moving at all either on the roof of the ballpark or on the flagpoles on the scoreboard. Both pitchers, Dempster and Jeff Suppan, were inducing ground balls in the pitcher-friendly conditions; in the combined 15 innings (45 outs' worth) they threw, 28 outs were registered on the ground, including a pair of bunts by Suppan which were attempts for base hits -- a peculiar strategy for a pitcher who has a decent .175 lifetime batting average.

One of the outs not recorded on a ground ball was an outstanding, Web Gem catch by Sam Fuld, diving after a ball hit by Frank Catalanotto with the tying run on third base and two out in the fifth inning. Fuld may not have all the tools to play more than part-time in the major leagues, but he is an outstanding defensive player. After that inning the Brewers only managed a pair of singles, and the Cubs turned a rare 6-5-3 double play when they had the extreme RF shift on against Prince Fielder in the seventh.

Incidentally, I thought it was strange that Ryan Braun, who is healthy and was hit by a pitch as a PH in the eighth, didn't start last night. And it wasn't as if the Brewers were trying out a prospect in his place, either; Frank Catalanotto, who started in LF, is 35 and about as far from prospect status as... well, as Jody Gerut, who started in RF in place of Corey Hart (who, admittedly, is just coming back from an appendectomy). If the Brewers want to start their B-lineup the rest of this series, though, that's fine with me.

The Cubs' offense was provided by Derrek Lee's 33rd homer of the year and a nice sequence in the eighth inning; a leadoff pinch-hit double by Mike Fontenot (curiosity: all four of his pinch-hits in 2009 have been doubles), followed by a perfect Ryan Theriot sacrifice bunt and a deep fly ball from Kosuke Fukudome.

The Cubs are now 9-4 in September, having one of their best Septembers in recent years. While there is still a postseason chance, I'll keep up hope. (And it's always nice to beat the Brewers.) Go Cubs.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:44:03 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Yadier Molina is hit by a pitch during the second inning Monday, extending Bush's lead on the franchise HBP list and moving him back into first place in the NL in 2009.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while being resourceful.

So, I took the day off yesterday to catch a game in Milwaukee, only my second of the season, but arrived to find a starting outfield of Frank Catalanotto, Corey Patterson and Jody Gerut, with Patterson, who has no business being on a major league roster, leading off. Rotoworld cited Patterson's presence in the leadoff spot as a suggestion that Ken Macha "either has no idea how runs are scored or he simply doesn't care any longer." Patterson went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and a GIDP in the ninth. Miller Park Drunk has ten links that should tell you everything you need to know about him.

At one point in the early innings, I turned to TheJay and said, "If ever there was a lineup begging to be no hit, it's this one." I think yesterday's lineup is right up there with the one Justin Verlander no-hit in 2007. Thankfully Jody Gerut was able to drop a double into left field. Brewer Paradise Lost thinks the Brewers should save a few million by allowing him to replace Mike Cameron in center field next season.

Of course, Carpenter hasn't needed much help to dominate the Brewers this season. As a team, the Crew has hit .173 against him and scored three runs in 23 innings.

At least Dave Bush pitched pretty well. He also hit Yadier Molina with a pitch, regaining a tie for the NL HBP lead.

Ryan Braun got a day off yesterday, but their appears to be a difference of opinion on the need and/or reason for it. Either way, expect Braun to start tonight against John Smoltz.

Fans in attendance tonight should also expect to see Corey Hart, who will be activated from the DL sometime today. After being held hitless in his first couple of days with Nashville, Hart collected five hits in the last two days, including a home run.

They should not expect to see Mike Cameron, however. Cameron strained his hamstring during a pinch hit appearance on Saturday and is expected to be out until Friday at the earliest.

Of course, the Brewers' reaction to Prince Fielder's walkoff home run on Sunday continues to pour in. If you haven't seen it yet (really?), here's a link to the video. I've added a new poll to the sidebar asking for your opinion, but here are some others:

D.J. Short of Circling the Bases says "don't be surprised to see Fielder catch one in the back or worse when he faces them next season."
Rob Neyer thought it was clever.
The Intricate Mess says "The Milwaukee Brewers might just be the coolest, hippest baseball team in the majors."
David Weathers said the Brewers were just trying to have some fun.
Giants bench coach Ron Wotus played the "disrespect" card.
Angels outfielder Torii Hunter spoke out against it, though why any of it is his business is unknown.
Giants beat reporter Andrew Baggarly has reactions from several people in the Giants' clubhouse.
MLB Notebook had no problem with it.

Meanwhile, there's a debate going on about Fielder's "clutchiness." In a note on the walkoff, David Pinto of Baseball Musings mentioned that Fielder doesn't hit many home runs late in games. Cyril Morong responded by crunching the numbers to show that Fielder's home run rate in the late innings is about on pace with the rest of baseball.

All the hubbub over the celebration overshadowed the Brewers' first triple play since 1999, and a great effort from both Braden Looper (who allowed one run over seven innings) and the bullpen (five pitchers each threw one scoreless inning to take the game to the 12th). One would think Looper would have plenty to tweet about, but his Twitter page has been inactive since his first Tweet on August 6.

For the last couple of days, the Brewer pitchers have finally held up their end of the 2009 bargain. UmpBump has the Brewers' WAR Pie from 2009, and it's pretty light on pitching contributions. Adam McCalvy wonders how much the Brewers miss former pitching coach Mike Maddux.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have added another reliever to the bullpen, calling up John Axford from AAA (FanShot) and releasing Jesus Colome to make room for him on the 40 man roster (FanShot). Aside from getting hurt, I'm not sure what Colome did to merit his release. David Pinto says they're tempting eternal damnation.

For the next few days, the Brewers will only go as far as the bottom half of their rotation can carry them. Yovani Gallardo is going to skip a start in an effort to keep his innings down this season. Thursday's day off means the Brewers can use a four man rotation for two turns and bring Gallardo back on his regular day against the Cubs next week.

Alcides Escobar was one of many Brewers to have a rough day yesterday, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Has your opinion on his 2010 outlook changed at all? Brewers Daily doesn't think he's the right choice for this team.

Again, there's no excuse for cheering against the Brewers at this point, but there is an upside when they lose: Andy Seiler's updated draft projections have the Brewers picking 13th.

In the minors:

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a review of his top 20 preseason prospects in the Brewer organization.
FanGraphs has a preview of the AFL Peoria Javelinas, including Brewers Zach Braddock and Jonathan Lucroy. Also worth noting: AFL players will be required to wear the S100 helmets.
The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers closed out their season with a loss in Beloit yesterday, but several players are headed to instructional league.
The Appleton Post-Crescent has a look back at the Timber Rattlers' first season as a Brewer affiliate, which was successful pretty much everywhere except on the field.

On Power Rankings:

WhatifSports dropped the Brewers two spots to #18.
Baseball Digest Daily's ASTRO Rankings also dropped them two spots to #19.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Claimed pitcher Thomas Diamond off waivers from the Rangers.
Rockies: Released Russ Ortiz.
Yankees: Released catcher Kevin Cash.

Things could always be worse. Remember when the Brewers used to be consistently mentioned in the same breath as the Pirates? They clinched their 17th straight losing season yesterday.

I complained a lot about yesterday's lineup, and continue to do it today, but at one point BrewHaHeather turned to me and made an excellent point: "Would you really rather have Bill Hall in there?" Hall has looked a little better at times as a Mariner, but is still one of just five players in baseball this season with at least 200 at bats and more strikeouts than total bases.

Former Brewer farmhand Michael Brantley is having a pretty good September, and has hit safely in each of his first six games. The all time record for hitting streaks to start a career belongs to Juan Pierre, who hit in 16 straight in August of 2000. A hit in his next game would tie Trent Durrington and dozens of others for the 34th longest streak in major league history.

One more "could be worse" note: Aramark, the food services company that has found itself in hot water multiple times over labor issues, is also bad luck for several teams who use them. The Brewers do not.

On this day in 1999, three Brewer pitchers appeared in the game (Hideo Nomo, Mike Myers and David Weathers), and each allowed a home run to Steve Finley as the D-Backs beat the Brewers 9-1.

Happy birthday today to Mike Rivera, who turns 33. Hopefully he'll get the start tonight.

Drink up.

Reds 8, Brewers 6 (13 innings)

KLSnow — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:32:42 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

If you're Chris Bosio, what do you tell Jeff Suppan at this point?

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W: Daniel Ray Herrera (2-4)
L: Todd Coffey (4-3)

HR: Felipe Lopez (8), Laynce Nix 2 (12), Joey Votto (19)

MVP: Felipe Lopez (+.194)
LVP: Mike Cameron (-.288)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

All told, that was a lot closer to a victory than I expected tonight, but still a loss.

On the mound, Jeff Suppan picked right back up where he left off. After missing nearly a month with a strained oblique, Suppan returned to the rotation tonight and lasted just 4.1 innings, retiring 13 batters and allowing 14 baserunners and four earned runs. As bad as it was, it could have been much, much worse: Suppan had a runner in scoring position with no one out in each of his first four innings of work. He threw 90 pitches, 50 of them strikes and remains winless since June 12.

The Brewer bats, meanwhile, waited until the last moment to wake up. Bronson Arroyo held the Crew to one run on six hits in seven innings, and struck out four. Felipe Lopez hit a solo home run to provide the team's only offense against him. Counting tonight's outing, Arroyo has now posted a 1.89 ERA in five August starts.

The Brewers came back to life in the ninth, as Frank Catalanotto reached on an error with one out, Jason Kendall drove him home on a double and Mike Rivera drew a pinch hit walk, before Dusty Baker brought in Arthur Rhodes to face Felipe Lopez, who reached on an infield single to load the bases. Craig Counsell drew a bases loaded walk to bring up Ryan Braun, who hit a two-run single to bring the Brewers within one. Prince Fielder hit a single through the left side to load the bases again, Casey McGehee drove home the tying run with a single, but Braun was thrown out at the plate trying to score on a would-be sac fly from Mike Cameron, sending the game to extra innings.

Lopez left the game after the ninth inning with what appears to be a reaggravation of his previous hamstring injury. The ensuing double switch left the Brewers out of position players, which would later force Todd Coffey to be left in to hit for himself.

After Trevor Hoffman pitched a scoreless tenth, Todd Coffey shut down the Reds offense in the 11th and 12th innings before allowing home runs to Joey Votto and Laynce Nix (his second of the game) while trying to close out a third inning. Daniel Ray Herrera retired Kendall, Alcides Escobar and Yovani Gallardo (pinch hitting) in order in the bottom of the 13th to end the game.

Milwaukee Brewers, 7-1 Over Washington Nationals To Take 3 Of 4 In DC.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 03:21:03 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

3 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers, from left to right, Jason Kendall, Mitch Stetter, Prince Fielder, and Casey McGehee celebrate after their 7-1 win over the Washington Nationals after a baseball game Monday, Aug. 24, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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3 Out Of 4 And 6 Out Of 7.

• In what our resident escaped physicist, the estimable Doghouse, accurately described as the, "Worst. Inning. Ever.", in last night's post game Fangraph, five solid innings of work by DC right-hander Collin Balester and a 1-0 DC lead were undone in the sixth inning of this afternoon's game when the Milwaukee Brewers put eight-straight batters on base and collected 6 hits, 2 walks and 6 runs, (a single, double, home run, 4 ER and a walk off Balester, and a walk, single and 2 ER off Nationals' reliever Jason Bergmann), for the third loss in the four game series with Milwaukee and the Nationals' sixth loss out of seven games in the week-long homestand.

• Coming off a 1.1 inning outing in his last start, Collin Balester began the late afternoon affair against Milwaukee with 5.0 scoreless innings over which he threw 66 pitches and gave up just 2 hits to the visiting Brewers, but it all went wrong when he gave up a leadoff double on an 0-2 curveball to Frank Catalanotto and followed that with a first pitch fastball to Ryan Braun that ended up in left field for a instant 2-1 Brewers' lead to start the top of the sixth inning that wouldn't end...Milwaukee righty Yavoni Gallardo earns his 12th win, (12-10, 3.51 ERA), with a 5.0 innings of work, throwing 108 pitches, 62 for strikes and allowing just 4 hits, 4 walks and 1 ER with 8 K's on the day and 179 on the season in 164.1 IP.

Brewers win, 7-1 final.

• Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

• Check Out The SB Nation's Milwaukee Brewers Blog: Brew Crew ball GameThread.

• "Game 125: Worst. Inning. Ever." by Doghouse

Coming Soon:

• Blogger Day Interview With The Nationals' Assistant Director Of Player Development, Mark Scialabba.

• Potomac Nationals Weekly Update: Washington Nationals' Prospect Tim Pahuta Stats.

Nationals now 44-81. (Countdown To 100 Losses Stands At...19)