SB Nation - Troy Percival

Can Rafael Soriano Top The Greatest Closing Season In Rays History?

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Kind of a loaded question, but we hope so. We can argue about designated roles, and who is really the Rays best relief pitcher, but Rafael Soriano will hold the title. The team, as well as the other relievers, should benefit from that fact. That also means that he'll get a chance to answer the question posed in the title.

Like catcher and right field, the Rays search for a closer more often than not has come up empty handed. While Mariano Rivera has racked up 478 saves since the (Devil) Rays debut in 1998, 39 different Rays' relievers have comprised the franchise's 427 saves. We now turn to Soriano and hope #40 is the charm.

Looking back on Rays closers, the list is a mixed bunch. Ranging from one of the all-time save kings in Troy Percival down to Lance Carter, the list is hardly a picture of relief aces. Since we know a closer shouldn't be limited to, or just measured by, saves, I decided to set the criteria for a closer as such: The reliever must have pitched at least 40 relief innings in a season with a pLI minimum of 1.60. Here is the list:

Year	Player	IP	pLI
2009	J.P Howell	66.2	1.82
2008	Troy Percival	45.2	1.79
2008	Dan Wheeler	66.1	1.72
2007	Al Reyes	60.2	1.66
2005	Danys Baez	72.1	2.16
2004	Danys Baez	68	1.7
2003	Lance Carter	79	1.73
2002	Esteban Yan	69	2.05
2001	Esteban Yan	62.1	1.82
2000	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	1.95
1999	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	2.21
1998	Roberto Hernandez	71.1	1.73

You'll notice that 2006 is missing; that's because there was zero qualified candidates. No reliever with a minimum of 40 innings even topped a 1.2 pLI. Depending on which part of that season you're looking at, the Rays "closer" could've been any one of the following: Tyler Walker, Dan Miceli, Brian Meadows, Seth McClung, or Shawn Camp. Atrocious.

Now that we have our list, here is how those pitchers performed by FIP:

Year	Player	FIP
1999	Roberto Hernandez	2.94
2001	Esteban Yan	3.23
2009	J.P Howell	3.71
2000	Roberto Hernandez	4.13
2005	Danys Baez	4.2
2004	Danys Baez	4.25
1998	Roberto Hernandez	4.44
2008	Dan Wheeler	4.49
2003	Lance Carter	4.69
2002	Esteban Yan	4.7
2007	Al Reyes	4.85
2008	Troy Percival	5.87

Going with this quick and easy method of analysis, Roberto Hernandez's 1999 season is the golden standard for all Rays' relievers. Hernandez not only had the highest pLI in Rays history, but also the lowest FIP for a closer. A quick check of CHONE's historical WAR database says Hernandez was worth 3.1 wins above replacement that season. Nonetheless, the D-Rays finished in last place that season with a record of 69-93.

The surprise on the list has to be Esteban Yan in 2001. More famous for being referenced in the Simpsons than anything on the field, Yan had the second best closing season according to FIP. Despite what some believe, save percentage does not tell you the whole story. 2009's version of J.P. Howell finished third on the FIP list, and had the Iceman not melted late in 2009, he probably would've given Yan and Hernandez a run for their money.

While the older, oft-injured closer approached has worked in short doses, Troy Percival and his predecessor, Al Reyes, are among the worst closing seasons in the franchise's history.

In 2009, Rafael Soriano posted a pLI of 1.66 for the Braves. He finished with 75.2 innings pitched and a fantastic FIP of 2.54. If he can some how duplicate last season's success in 2010, we will witness the greatest closer season in Rays' history. Not to put to much pressure on the man's right arm (it's fragile, after all), if Soriano can give the Rays 65 high leverage innings and maintain an FIP in the 3.5 season, I'll gladly take that.

Morning Prowl: Winter Meetings, Suitors For Adam Everett and Brandon Lyon, and Multi-Year Deals For Relievers

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:00:16 -0000

by Charles Krupa - AP

Is Edwin Jackson the most likely Detroit Tiger to be traded at next week's Winter Meetings?

View full size photo »

In his latest column, CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler (former Tigers beat writer for MLive.com) believes the Tigers will be a team to watch at next week's Winter Meetings, and perfectly sums up their will-they-or-won't-they offseason. Besides clearly explaining Detroit's payroll issues and why Edwin Jackson is the most likely Tiger to be traded, Knobler also lends some insight into what the team's budget could be.

(Hat tip to Mack Avenue Tigers)

The Tigers were bound to have some competition for Adam Everett this offseason. One of the teams in pursuit might be the Red Sox. According to WEEI.com, the Sawx have been in contact with Everett, though haven't made any sort of offer. Alex Speier also reports that the Red Sox were willing to offer Alex Gonzalez $3 million, so Everett could probably expect something similar.

Marco Scutaro appears to be the favored free agent shortstop for the Red Sox, however. That is, if they don't move Dustin Pedroia over there.

(via The Cutoff Man)

Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal report that the New York Yankees have shown interest in Brandon Lyon. But the Yanks are likely to show interest in virtually every free agent reliever (probably including Fernando Rodney). Those plans will depend on what the team does with Joba Chamberlain and/or Phil Hughes, however.

So we now know the Mariners didn't want to trade Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley for Jackson, but what's the take from the other side? Seattle Times beat writer Geoff Baker thinks the Tigers would've had to throw in another player, at least.

On the MLB.com Hot Stove blog, Jason Beck wonders if the Tigers might offer a multi-year deal to a reliever this offseason. That could be what it takes to re-sign Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney. And Dave Dombrowski has given two-year contracts to relievers (Rodney, Todd Jones, Troy Percival) before.

Two bloggers who think the Tigers should've offered arbitration to Placido Polanco: Brian Borawski at TigerBlog believes this shows the team is more interested in cutting costs, and could see season ticket sales affected by that. Baseball Musings' David Pinto thinks a second baseman who can hit is worth more than the relievers who received arbitration offers from Detroit. (Pinto also sees Polanco as a good fit in Boston.)

One reliever you can probably take off Detroit's shopping list - if he was ever on it - is Jose Valverde. The Astros offered him arbitration yesterday. Would the Tigers want him if they have to give up a first-round pick? (Not to mention the guy made $8 million this season.)

Remember how Kelly Shoppach killed the Tigers in 2008 (.333/.404/.905, six homers, 11 RBIs in 13 games)? But then he fell off the table this year (.214/.335/.399 overall), and was likely to be released. Now, he's out of the AL Central, after the Indians traded him to the Rays.

Two FanPosts to check out: john.kmiecik is asking for suggestions to replace his Polanco jersey, now that he'll likely be moving onto another team next year. And NCDee is looking to meet up with some fellow BYBers while she's in Michigan for the holidays.

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

View full size photo »

We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

MONDAY HALOLINKS: Scott Kazmir Still Looking

WiHaloFan — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 15:29:39 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Browse more photos »

Up next for Angels: Monday at New York Yankees -- latimes.com
Jered Weaver vs. Joba Chamberlain

Torii Hunter, Scott Kazmir lead Angels past White Sox -- latimes.com
"He's our closer," Scioscia said of Fuentes. "The situation today, when Jepsen starts the ninth, it's purely matchups. The matchup leading off the ninth was good for us. "And as soon as those lefties started coming off the bench, it was a good time for Brian." That's a new approach for Scioscia. When Francisco Rodriguez saved a record 62 games for the Angels last season, only seven of those came in games in which he pitched less than an inning. And in Troy Percival's last full season as the Angels' closer in 2004, only four of his 33 saves lasted fewer than three outs.

Angels-Yankees Preview - FOX Sports on MSN
The two best teams in the AL meet Monday night when the New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels in a makeup game that could help determine home-field advantage throughout the postseason. New York (92-52) leads the AL East by seven games over Boston while Los Angeles (86-56) is six ahead of Texas in the West. The Yankees hold a five-game lead over the Angels for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the right to choose whether they want an extra off day in an AL division series.

Team Reports - CBSSports.com
Sunday's matchup between Angels LHP Scott Kazmir and White Sox LHP Mark Buehrle was a repeat of the matchup from Buehrle's perfect game on July 23 in Chicago. Kazmir started for the Tampa Bay Rays and took the loss after allowing five runs on five hits and three walks in six innings.

Video highlights from 9/13/09:

Angels sweep the White Sox - angelsbaseball.com
Rewind Recap: A seventh-inning solo jack from Torii Hunter ended up being the decisive stroke as the Angels took the three-game series (didn't the Angels lose on Saturday?)

Kazmir's pickoff nabs Nix to end the inning - angelsbaseball.com
Scott Kazmir starts the pickoff by throwing to first, Kendry Morales throws to second to get Jayson Nix to end the inning

Izturis brings one in to tie it at two - angelsbaseball.com
Maicer Izturis hits a single to left field, bringing in Howard Kendrick to tie the game at 2 in the third

Hunter's hammering homer puts the Halos up - angelsbaseball.com
Torii Hunter slaps a leadoff homer in the seventh inning to put the Angels in front

Angels Extra: Scott Kazmir - MLB.com
MLB.com takes a look at Kazmir's performance since arriving in Los Angeles from Tampa Bay

Team Reports II - CBSSports.com
3B Chone Figgins "has been an Iron Man for us," according to manager Mike Scioscia, but he gave the iron man a day off Sunday. It was just the third time in 142 games this season that Figgins has sat out. But there have been signs that he is wearing down recently. He is 8-for-38 (.211) in September and was thrown out in his three previous steal attempts before getting his 40th of the season Saturday.

Scioscia and Fuentes have closed-door meeting - OCRegister.com
Manager Mike Scioscia met with closer Brian Fuentes in his office with the door closed for 25 minutes before Sunday's game. Afterward, Scioscia said the discussion centered on Fuentes' mechanics and he dismissed the notion that they talked about the veteran reliever's role.

Previewing The Vladimir Guerrero Market - MLBTradeRumors.com
Vladimir Guerrero earned over $80MM over the course of his last contract. He won't sign for nearly as much when he hits free agency again this winter, but he could appeal to clubs looking for a veteran bat. After all, Vladdy hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since 1996. This year, he's hitting .298/.338/.467, but his strikeout rate has risen and his walk rate has fallen. Guerrero remains the free-swinger he's always been; in fact, he swings at a higher percentage of pitches than any major leaguer with at least 250 plate appearances.

Metamorphosis is complete - Angels Unplugged - Los Angeles Times
It is as if the metamorphosis is complete. From pitching strong, to struggling to put together a rotation, back to having one of the best five-man staffs in the game. From creating runs, to scoring in bunches, back to winning with low run totals again.

Angels embark on crucial trip - angelsbaseball.com
It's a difficult trip, travel-wise, as the Angels have no days off before or after their road trip due to the makeup game with the Yankees on Monday. But Scioscia said his club should be fine despite playing 50 games in 52 days, going back to Aug. 14.

Angels: Hunter still errorless in CF - PE.com
Hunter hasn't committed an error in centerfield in a regular season game since Aug. 31, 2007 vs. Kansas City, a span of 259 games.

Versatile Izturis takes spin at hot corner - angelsbaseball.com: News
"The fact that he's moving around for us a lot isn't a utility role, it's more of a versatility role," Scioscia said. "He's getting a lot of playing time at a lot of positions and he's playing very well."

Q&A with John Lackey, who recently won 100th MLB game - Abilene Reporter News
Q. You’ve now had eight major league seasons and your a free agent after this one. Is that something that weighs on you at all? A. Honestly, I had thought about it a little bit early on in the season and it might have affected me a little bit. But I came to a point where I’m just going to help this team win this year and just worry about what I can handle this year and let the offseason take care of itself.

Abreu has made Angels more patient - angelsbaseball.com: News
t's impossible to quantify Abreu's exact effect on the other hitters, but Angels manager Mike Scioscia did say he noticed that players seem to flock to Abreu for advice. "Players gravitate toward Bobby," Scioscia said. "They're aware of his knowledge, what he's accomplished in the game, and they want to absorb what they can from him."

2009 Postseason Ticket Information - angelsbaseball.com

September 14 - BR Bullpen
Events, births and deaths that occurred on September 14.
1978 - The Angels score 13 unearned runs in the 9th inning to cap a 16 - 1 win over the Rangers.
1994 - The remainder of the baseball season is canceled by acting commissioner Bud Selig after 34 days of the players' strike. There will be no World Series for the 1st time since 1904.
2003 - Homering in his final at-bat, Vladimir Guerrero hits for 'Le Carrousel' at Montreal's Olympic Stadium. Facing Mets' southpaw Tom Glavine, the Expos right fielder doubled (2nd), singled (3rd) and hit a triple (5th) and completed the sixth cycle in team history going deep off Dan Wheeler (7th).

Magic Number: 15

Poll

Who's been more valuable to the Angels this season?

Jeff Mathis

33 votes

Maicer Izturis

336 votes

Gary Matthews Jr.

15 votes

384 votes | Poll has closed

Kendry Morales Clears the Bases, Jered Weaver Cleans the Plate, Angels Win

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:54:47 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Does the dude in the Yellow shirt look just a little bit jealous?

Browse more photos »

9 run game (Angels Win 6-3 in 9 innings) on 9-9-09. Winning Pitcher was Jered Weaver (jersey number 36, 3+6=9)

Final Score in Anaheim: Los Angeles Angels 6, Seattle Mariners 3

After walking in a run in the first inning, Seattle pitcher Ian Snell found the strike zone when facing Kendry Morales. After K-Mo's At-Bat, the Angels were still the only team in the majors without a grand slam in the 2009 season, but the score was 4-0 nonetheless. Morales had cleared the bases with a double to the LF gap and the Angels never looked back.

Jered Weaver looked playoff ready as he put away hitters, pitching into the 7th inning on 111 pitches. Darren Oliver and Kevin Jepsen shut it down in the 7th and 8th innings. Juan Rivera bought a big time insurance policy when he smashed a 2-Run homer off of the rockpile (a fountain, not a construction zone) beyond Anaheim Stadium's Centerfield fence. Brian Fuentes got his 40th Save of the season after Trevor Bell allowed two hits to start the 9th. Fuentes let one score, but all in all a good recovery after blowing last night's affair.

Angels Starting Pitchers have a 1.59 ERA since the acquisition of Scott Kazmir and Weaver's 2 ER, both on semi-harmless solo homers, were 2 of 7 hits allowed and were balanced with 8 strikeouts and no walks. Weaver is now 15-5 on the season. Funetes' 40th Save ties him with Troy PErcival's 2002 total and Francisco Rodriguez' 2007 total for 6th Place All Time in Angels single season marks. Fuentes is already 9th All time in Angels Saves in only 47+ innings pitched.

Poll

Panther of the Game

Kendry Morales

138 votes

Jered Weaver

173 votes

311 votes | Poll has closed

Minor League Report: Sean Rodriguez. Mashing. Waiting.

rghan — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 18:51:08 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Browse more photos »

AAA Salt Lake Bees, 62 and 66

Sean Rodriguez, 2B, SS, OF - (32 AB's) .375/.512/.813 with 3 Dbls, 3 HRs, 8 RBIs, and 2 SBs

The stat line above really boils down to three unbelievable games, where S-Rod went a combined 10 for 11 (.909) and accumulated every double, HR, RBI and SB of the period. His other 7 games were notable only for the 7 walks he accrued. He remains a talented but very streaky player, difficult for both scouts and sabermetricians to value.

Freddy Sandoval, 3B - (29 AB's) .448/.543/.621 with 2 Dbls, 1 HRs, 6 BBs, and 1 SB

Sandoval raked in his AAA return, despite managing only a paltry .263/.417/.316 in his ASL rehab stint. He continues to put up great numbers - he's compiled a 129 and 136 OPS+ over the past two years while batting third on offensively-talented Bees clubs - but is still awaiting a legitimate big league opportunity.

Rich Thompson, rhrp - (5 appearances) 1 W, 8 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9 K/3 BB

It's just a matter of time before Thompson and his blogging wife, Ashley, are back in So Cal. I know the man's put up an unpromising 8.17 ERA in 25 big league innings so far, but his fastball/curve combo is reportedly as legit as Jason Bulger's stuff, so hopefully the 25-year-old Thompson gets another chance to stick.

Tommy Mendoza, rhsp - (2 starts) 10 IP, 12 hits, 4.50 ERA, 6 K/2 BB

The shellacking Mendoza received in his August 18 Pacific Coast League debut - which took place on his 22^nd birthday - was not as bad as the boxscore reads: he coasted through four innings, yielding just a walk and a knock before getting hammered for 5 hits, including an HR, without recording an out in the fifth. Maybe we can chalk it up to the New Orleans heat and humidity? At any rate, Mendoza put together a season in AA broadly similar to Trevor Bell's, who provides a good comp in terms of stuff and ceiling.

AA Arkansas 24 and 30 (second half)

Here's one blogger's frustrated summation of the Travs' season.

Marco Albano, rhsp - (3 starts) 1 W, 19 IP, 10 hits, 1.89 ERA, 19 K/8 BB

A L B A N O. Remember this name, because the buzz around him may start soon. He was an all-but-forgotten 33^rd round pick out of Boston College in 2005, who at best looked like a marginal utility player, but then the guy spent the past two years reinventing himself as a pitcher. His '08 High A stats were unimpressive - he had some control issues in addition to being hittable, a nasty combination - but this year he pitched well enough out of the Travs' pen to earn a rotation slot. He's been nails ever since his conversion to starting, throwing 4 quality starts in 7 tries, despite tight pitch counts, while sporting a 3.22 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 36 innings. He's only 5'11", so his future may still be in the pen, but he's a guy to watch. I'm still waiting for a decent scouting report on him.

Mark Trumbo, 1B - (50 AB's) .352/.375/.481 with 4 Dbls and 1 HR

Is Trumbo's .318/.351/.497 second half, which includes 6 homeruns, impressive enough to make the 23-year-old a top Halos prospect? You be the judge.

Alex Torres, lhsp - (3 starts) 1 W, 1 L, 14.1 IP, 16 hits, 3.77 ERA, 14 K/10 BB

Torres has found the going tougher in the Texas League. He continues to battle his command - his 14 walks in 20 AA innings is a huge red flag - and his GO/AO ratio has declined from an effective 2.66 in High A to a less dominant 1.50 in AA. As a result, his BA against has risen all the way to .280. His past two starts have been strong, however, so he appears to be making the necessary adjustments.

High A Rancho Cucamonga, 26 and 30 (second half)

Mike Kohn, rhrp - (4 appearances) 1 W, 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10 K/4 BB

Pitcher A Pitcher B

IP 86.2 84.2

ERA 3.12 1.81

Hits/9 7.37 4.57

Walks/9 5.19 3.72

K/9 12.36 14.88

Pitcher A is Troy Percival in his age 21-23 minor league seasons, and Pitcher B is Mike Kohn in his age 22-23 minor league seasons. While Percival was getting most of his outs in the upper minors and Kohn has only made it to High A, I think the comparison is indicative of Kohn's potential, to say the least.

PJ Phillips, CF, SS - (38 AB's) .342/.419/.477 with 1 Dbl, 1 HR, and 3 SB's

Just when you're ready to give up on the guy, he goes out and earns another look. Brandon Phillips' little brother and the Halos' second round ‘05 draft pick has hit .291/.333/.457 since the allstar break, quite possibly salvaging his career. His strikezone judgment remains abysmal - his second half 40 K's to 12 BB's representing an improvement over his first half numbers - but the power/speed tools are still there, tantalizing enough for the Halos to try Phillips in the outfield.

Abel Nieves, 2B - (38 AB's) .368/.478/.605 with 1 Dbl, 1 Trpl, and 2 HRs

Our 2005 50^th round draft pick continues to mash in his third stint at High A. He's a minor league vet at this point, though he did hold his own reasonably well at AAA in a brief look early in the season.

A Cedar Rapids, 24 and 18 (second half)

Roberto Lopez - (62 AB's) .371/.391/.597 with 5 Dbls, 3 HR and 14 RBI's

Lopez hit .341 in August, looking more and more like the guy who raked .400 last year in the Pioneer League. He battled through injuries and defensive experiments this spring, so his .798 OPS in a half season worth of A ball doesn't wholly reflect what he's capable of, but at nearly 24 he's got to keep hitting.

Andrew Taylor, lhsp - (4 appearances) 3 Svs, 5 IP, 1 hits, 0 ERs, 10 K/2 BB

Taylor has a 24 inning scoreless streak that goes all the way back to June 21^st. He's fanned the side in his last two appearances, while his last outing without recording a k was way back on July 5^th. His track record before this year isn't amazing: he's been relieving with only intermittent success in the minors and at North Carolina State since 2006, but his 14.8 K/9 for the Kernels just screams out for the lefty to get a look at the higher levels.

Tyler Chatwood, rhsp - (3 starts) 3 W's, 17.2 IP, 8 hits, 1.53 ERA, 18 K/7 BB

The opposition mashed Chatwood at a .338 clip in June and a .314 clip in July as his groundball percentages fell to 43% and 41% respectively. He's recovered in August, inducing groundballs on 60% of the balls in play while getting his K-rate back up to a batter an inning. He's still just 19 and he's making adjustments, so I'd say he's progressing reasonably well.

Darwin Perez, ss - .370/.431/.522 with 4 Dbls, 1 HR, and 3 SB's

The 20-year-old Perez endured an abysmal first half, hitting just .196/.307/.239 and very nearly losing his starting job. Since the allstar break, he's rebounded with a solid .297/.377/.392 line, basically replicating what he did last year in the Pioneer League. His main problem appears to be hitting right-handed pitching, which is a tough blemish to have if you make your living as a switch-hitter. He's still young enough to improve, but is just as likely to see the wheels come off entirely against tougher High A righties.

Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 07:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Browse more photos »

We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB
April	63.1	3.84	4.1	1.81
May	101	4.19	4.6	1.84
June	70	1.67	2.61	3.1
July	66.1	4.21	4.08	2.5
August	14.2	2.45	3.28	2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

	IP	ERA	FIP	Salary
Percival	11.1	6.35	6.86	$4.45
Bradford	4.1	2.08	1.69	$3.50
Isringhausen	8	2.25	4.2	$0.75
Shouse	16.1	5.51	5.95	$1.35
Nelson	40.1	4.02	5.62	$1.30
	79.4	4.042	4.864	$11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Browse more photos »

Buyers or sellers?

The Rays are probably going to be holders before anything, but if I had to label them with a short-term title I would say they are closer to being buyers than they're sellers. The Rays are only 4 ½ games behind the first place Yankees and still have a few holes they could fill prior to the deadline.

Short-term need

On the surface the Rays probably have one immediate short-term need, and that's catcher. The rest of their infield is pretty stout. They had all-stars at every infield position, excluding catcher. Dioner Navarro has been nothing short of a disappointment for the Rays this year .226/.253/.328. Additionally, his backup Michel Hernandez has been just as bad, if not worse .256/.291/.329. The Rays more than anything need some guys in house to start performing at a more consistent level. Players like B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann and David Price have been very inconsistent in their play throughout the entire season. If these players settle in and start performing at a more consistent level the Rays will be fine, and should find themselves right in the thick of the postseason race. However, don't expect the Rays to be very active. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays didn't make any short-term quick fixes.

Long-term need

The Rays probably have the most talented young team in all of baseball, so it's tough to say what exactly their long-term need would be. Probably more than anything the Rays long-term needs are more financially focused. They're going to have to begin the process of figuring out how to keep this team together. They already completed the first part, which was signing third baseman Evan Longoria to a long-term contract, but over the course of the next few years they'll have several stars ready to hit the free agent market. In the next two years alone the Rays have roughly 76% of their current roster up for free agency including Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Akinori Iwamura, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Jeff Niemann, Randy Choate, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Matt Garza, Ben Zobrist, and Joe Dillon. Things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa, the Rays bubble may be in jeopardy of bursting real soon.

Big leaguers on the market?

I don't expect the Rays to have any big leaguers on the market; they're in contention and really have no reason to deal anybody on their current major league roster. However, as we've said things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa soon, so maybe if someone blew them away with an offer they might trade someone like either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, but it's unlikely. Kazmir just signed a new three-year deal, where he is scheduled to make $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 and a club option for $13.5 million in 2012 (which has a $2.5 million buyout). Crawford's current contract has a club option for $10 million next year, which could increase to $11.5 million with escalators. Both contracts are pretty expensive for the Rays so it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Rays to listen to offers, but I wouldn't expect them to deal either player.

Minor league strength

The Rays minor league system has thinned out a bit, which is understandable given how many major league stars they have produced over the last few years. They still have a few young potential stars, which for the most part seem to be pitchers. Of course the cornerstone of their young pitching is former number one overall selection David Price. However, Price isn't the only young pitcher the Rays have. They also have two really good young pitchers in Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. John Sickels of Minor League Ball considers Davis a "Gil Meche" type, and Hellickson he says has "Excellent combination of command with solid stuff."

One area that the Rays probably need to address is looking to add some depth to their system with position players. They have one really good position player in shortstop Tim Beckham (2008 number one overall selection). Beckham has struggled a bit so far in his career, but he's only 19, and most scouts' think he will come around soon. He's regarded as an excellent shortstop with great bat speed, which should lead to average power in his future.

In an effort to begin adding to that much needed depth the Rays used their first five draft selections in the 2009 draft on position players, which includes their first round pick, high school second baseman LeVon Washington.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Rays could probably take on some money, but it could only be a very small amount. However, I doubt the Rays are thrilled about the idea of taking on additional money, but if a deal came along that made them considerably better they might take a shot.

For more coverage of the Rays check out DRays Bay.

Toxic sting of Rays' bats the first real challenge to the Rox rotation in weeks

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Who's the most valuable hitter in Major League Baseball? Hint: he plays for the Rays, but his name is not Evan, Carlos or Carl.

Browse more photos »

Rollin', rollin', rollin'. Though the Rays are golden. Keep those Rockies rollin'....

Are you scared of the Tampa Bay Rays?

You probably ought to be. Yeah, yeah I know. They got off to a tough start - just 9-14 in April in fact. But no team has underachieved like the reigning AL Champions, yet here they are, three games over .500 in easily the most difficult division in MLB. They have a five game winning streak - yes, three came against the Nationals, but they still deserve credit for actually winning the games.

They have been victims of an inordinate number of 1-run games, losing 13 of their 31 games alone by a single run. Moreover, that 8-13 barely squeaked past the Rockies' own abysmal one-run record this weekend when they took two one run games from the Nationals.

Any time a team has a poor one-run showing, it's interesting to see their run differential. And Tampa's is telling. They are 2nd in MLB, ahead of the mighty Red Sox Nation and trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by just 12 runs. This team is scary. As you'll soon see, their offense is astonishingly impressive while the arms that helped carry them to the ALCS have yet to pitch to their potential. Despite their record and the tough division, Baseball Prospectus gives them the best chance in the AL to make the playoffs outside of the Red Sox.

Also, check out DRaysBay, Tampa's SBNation site and home of RJ Anderson, who writes for Fangraphs as well. Here is their series preview. Go be nice to them.

Tampa Bay Rays (34-31, W5, t-3rd)

Tuesday-Thursday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: A+

This is where we can really evaluate the Rockies staff. We haven't allowed more than 4 runs in the eleven game streak, but of our last three opponents, there were really only five hitters to be afraid of - Ichiro, Russell Branyan, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Albert Pujols. Those were three pretty poor offenses as a whole. Tampa Bay is completely different.

You have Evan Longoria near the top of the AL in RBIs and the 2nd most valuable hitter in the majors via Fangraphs. Then there Carlos Pena, who leads the AL in HRs with 20. How about Jason Bartlett, who is coming off the DL today yet ranks as a top 20 most valuable hitter in MLB despite missing over three weeks? The dude has an wOBA of .460 and would lead MLB with his .373 average if he qualified - how's that for getting tossed in the Matt Garza/Delmon Young deal?

Then of course, there's this guy that leads MLB in Fangraphs value despite not even having enough qualifying at-bats. You need to know Ben Zobrist. He has played every position except 1B, C and P and is a legit 30/30 threat. That means the top two most valuable hitters in MLB play in Tampa, and Bartlett was #4 when he got injured.

Oh right, then there's Pat Burrell, playoff hero BJ Upton, who has not regained that magic - and Carl Crawford, who is by far and away MLB's best base-stealer. Are you surprised they rank #1 in runs scored and are second in wOBA? That's probably first with park adjustments. They are also #1 in speed and 4th in HR.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI
B.J. Upton - CF	.218	3	15
Carl Crawford - LF	.316	5	29
Evan Longoria - 3B	.305	14	58
Carlos Pena - 1B	.240	20	48
Ben Zobrist - RF	.309	13	38
Jason Bartlett- SS	.373	7	30
Willy Aybar - 2B	.274	5	20
Dioner Navarro - C	.205	4	19

That lineup is very much a guess. But in that lineup, there are three players that are ridiculously elite by wOBA standards (Bartlett, Zobrist and Longoria), two that are solid All-Stars talents (Crawford and Pena) and one comfortably above average (Aybar). Navarro and Upton fall in the below average category. I'll admit some of these players are playing over their heads, but I'm just reporting the facts. These guys have been very good this season.

Joe Maddon will need to get Pat Burrell (.241, 1 HR, 17 RBI) into games (maybe 1B against DLR tonight?) as well as the hot-hitting Gabe Kapler (.202, 3, 11). Gabe Gross (.272, 4, 22) has started in RF frequently and prospect Matt Joyce earned his callup a couple weeks ago ~~and is on the bench as well~~ and was sent down to bring Pat Burrell off the DL. Michel Hernandez is the backup catcher.

The Arms: C+

Joe Maddon has some very talented arms at his disposal, but they haven't been getting the desired results. You might be surprised to know that Jason Hammel, the Ray castoff, has not only been performing better the man who beat him out, tonight's starter Jeff Niemann, but he's been better than every Tampa starter if you go by tRA. In fact, the Rockies have five starters with better tRA's than Tampa's best starter James Shields. Only Cook fails to match Shields. By this method, the Rockies have the pitching advantage in each game of the series.

For a less sabermetric angle: they are ranked 16th in ERA (rotation 20th, bullpen 9th), 21st in runs allowed, 19th in FIP and 22nd in HR/9. They should get better, but right now, they are a below average staff. Prominent names in the bullpen are J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, and Dan Wheeler.

The D: C+

The Rays have made 44 errors, tied for 6th most in MLB, which has led to 24 unearned runs; however, they are a very athletic team that can make a lot of plays, as evidenced by their 5th ranking in UZR/150.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jeff Niemann	5-4	4.12	1.45	42	27

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	2-6	5.08	1.41	72	32

Wednesday, June 17, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - David Price	1-0	2.37	1.63	26	18

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	5-3	4.26	1.39	39	27

Thursday, June 18, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Matt Garza	4-4	3.63	1.19	73	34

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	5-6	3.92	1.38	69	35

Gabe Kapler has a home run in each of his last three games. Carlos Pena (9-for-23, 3 HR) has started to heat up the last seven days after cooling off a bit in May while Ben Zobrist (9-for-23, 2 HR) and Gabe Gross (7-for-20, 1 HR) are hot as well.

Evan Longoria (4-for-23, 1 HR) is actually not hitting well for what seems like the first time in his career, and B.J. Upton has managed just six singles in his past 30 ABs.

Akinori Iwamura (knee) went on the 60-day DL last month, and Jason Isringhausen just lost his season and possibly career due to Tommy John surgery. Chad Bradford (elbow), Shawn Riggans (shoulder), Scott Kazmir (quad), Troy Percival (shoulder) and Brian Shouse (elbow) are all on the 15-day DL.

Poll

How much Rays can the Rockies handle in June?

None. We'll completely melt down, season's hopes flooded with losing a series sweep

20 votes

Some - The Rays will expose our staff, but we'll still get one game

30 votes

Most of it - We probably can't sweep them, but we're too hot to lose a series, especially against a team with only 2 road series wins

60 votes

All of it - Bring on the Pirates in a quest for 17!

20 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed

Joe Maddon is Using J.P. Howell Correctly

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

I've beaten the tar out of J.P. Howell being used in the highest leveraged situations and Joe Maddon is really doing a brilliant job of doing just that since Troy Percival finally broke. Howell has appeared in 15 games the last 30 days, which dates back to when Percival was still pitching, and his average leverage index is 2.14; Percival's in those two games was 2.52. Howell's average pLI with Percival around was 1.21, and without is 2.18. Let's take a look at when Maddon is using Howell:

@ FLA entered bottom 7^th, ---, 0 out, ahead two, 2.91 aLI

@ FLA entered bottom 9^th, ---, 0 out, tied, 1.89 aLI

@ CLE entered bottom 7^th, ---, 0 out, down one, 0.53 aLI

MIN  entered top 8^th, --3, 0 out, ahead three, 2.35 aLI

MIN entered top 9^th, 1-3, 1 out, down one, 1.71 aLI

KCR entered top 9, ---, 0 out, ahead four, 0.21 aLI

KCR entered top 9^th, ---, 0 out, ahead one, 2.22 aLI

@ NYY entered bottom 8^th, 1--, 1 out, ahead one, 4.62 aLI

@ NYY entered bottom 8^th, 123, 1 out, ahead two, 3.88 aLI

LAA top 9^th, ---, 0 out, down one, 0.66 aLI

WSN entered top 8^th, --3, 2 outs, tied, 2.74 aLI

WSN entered top 9^th, ---, 0 out, ahead one,2.38 aLI

That's 15 appearances, two save chances, a 1.73 FIP, and the highest leverage on the team during that time. Maddon's not using Howell as a closer at all, he's using him as a relief ace, a fireman, the iceman, whatever you want to label him, Maddon is using him perfectly. Seriously. He could've easily said he was giving the set closers job to Jason Isringhausen or Dan Wheeler and most people would've bought into it, instead Maddon has done something far, far savvier and the Rays are a better team because of it.

Fantastic job, Joe.