SB Nation - Tim Hudson

Filling Out the Braves 2010 Lineup Card

gondeee — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:43:33 -0000

Troy Glaus is the final piece of the Atlanta Braves off-season puzzle -- a solidifying force in the middle of the order.

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With the expected signing of Troy Glaus, and the recent trade of Javier Vazquez for Melky Cabrera, the holes on the roster that the Braves entered the off-season with seem to have been filled. With that in mind, I fill out the lineup and the rest of the 25-man roster:

Lineup
1. Nate McLouth, CF
2. Martin Prado, 2B
3. Chipper Jones, 3B
4. Troy Glaus, 1B
5. Brian McCann, C
6. Yunel Escobar, SS
7. Matt Diaz, RF
8. Melky Cabrera, LF

Rotation
1. Tim Hudson
2. Derek Lowe
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Tommy Hanson
5. Kenshin Kawakami

Bench
1. David Ross, C
2. Omar Infante, IF
3. Brooks Conrad, IF
4. Brandon Jones, OF
5. Mitch Jones, OF

Bullpen
1. Billy Wagner, LH
2. Takashi Saito, RH
3. Peter Moylan, RH
4. Eric O'Flaherty, LH
5. Kris Medlen, RH
6. Jesse Chavez, RH
7. Mike Dunn, LH

That's a pretty solid lineup with Glaus in the middle. I'm assuming the Braves will take the Tommy Hanson approach with Jason Heyward and let him get some time at triple-A first, but if he does make the team I would expect him to hit 7th between the right-handers Escobar and Diaz. But I think it's more important for Heyward to get a first footing at triple-A before he's promoted to Atlanta. With the lineup above, there's really no reason to rush Heyward. Yes, he would make it stronger, but it's pretty solid the way it is and burying Melky in the 8th spot obscures his underwhelming bat.

The rotation is strong, and of course any of those guys could be swapped around. They're all right-handed, so order is not really that important.

The bench will probably have a lot of competition, and there's still a chance the Braves could sign someone else to fill out a pinch-hitter role. As it stands we would have to rely on young players like Conrad, Jones, and Jones who don't have much experience pinch-hitting. They are also all free swingers and the Braves would probably prefer at least one other pinch-hitter who is more of a contact hitter.

The bullpen is more than solid from top to bottom. Actually, this is likely the best I've felt about our bullpen in years, and there's still some other guys who could sneak into the mix like Luis Valdez, Jeff Lyman, and Lee Hyde. Too many bullpen arms is a good problem to have.

Overall I like our 25-man roster the way it is constructed above. Glaus really solidifies the lineup for me. He was the true missing piece and the right piece to add. Now everyone just needs to stay healthy so we can put that same lineup out there for 120-plus games.

Yankees Reacquire Javier Vazquez

Satchel Price — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:36:03 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

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Earlier this morning, a pretty big deal came together, as the Yankees agreed to acquire righty Javier Vazquez and lefty Boone Logan in exchange for outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitching prospects Arodys Vizcaino and Michael Dunn. This is the second time that Vazquez and Logan have been traded together in a single package, as last year they were sent to Atlanta from the White Sox in exchange for a package headed by Tyler Flowers.

The basis for the deal is pretty simple. The Braves needed outfield help, payroll flexibility and had a surplus of expensive starting pitching. The Yankees wanted another top tier starter and clearly have been willing to give up talent this offseason. The big question around baseball really seems to be whether the Braves got enough in exchange for Vazquez, who's coming off the best season of his career and one of the best performances in the game last season.

Vazquez, 33, has quietly been one of the best pitchers of the decade, culminating with a 6.6 WAR performance last year in Atlanta, his fourth straight year with a WAR of 4.8 or higher. But the Braves essentially cornered themselves into dealing either Vazquez or Derek Lowe after resigning Tim Hudson, and it appears that they found a very underwhelming market for the aging Lowe. This led to the apparent alternative, which was to extract as much value as possible from Vazquez's career year.

The deal obviously makes sense for the Yankees, who apparently have plans of established a new dynasty. Vazquez has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers of the past decade. He's pitched in at least 198 innings in every season since 2000, and he's posted FIP numbers below 4.00 in eight of those ten seasons. He's consistently been a 4.5-6.0 WAR pitcher in recent years, although it should be noted that his worst season as a full-time starter came in 2004- his one previous season with the Yankees, during which he posted a 2.2 WAR. Still, most projections put Vazquez into the 4-5 WAR range for next season, making him one of the better starters in the game. It's also worth mentioning that Vazquez has developed a bit of a reputation for pitching at his best in low leverage situations, which is a big part of why he's never really gotten the Ace label before.

Cabrera didn't really have a clear spot in the lineup after the additions of Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson, but he's good enough to play everyday somewhere so his value wasn't being maximized as New York's fourth outfielder, a spot that likely will be taken by Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann, unless the Yankees resign Johnny Damon. Cabrera's only 25, he's an approximately league average hitter, and he's an above average corner outfielder, making him a solid bet to give Atlanta solid production from right or left field at a cheap rate. And while Vizcaino and Dunn are two of the best arms in their farm system, neither is close to MLB-ready, they managed to keep both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and they still have numeous other quality arms like Dellin Betances and Zach McAllister. Between Vazquez, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Hughes or Chamberlain, the Yankees have put themselves in a position to have one of the best pitching staffs in the game.

For the Braves, the trade seems like a way to kill three goals with one move: free up payroll for a first baseman, free up a rotation spot for Hudson, and fill one of the holes in the outfield cheaply with Cabrera. Considering that they did a pretty solid job of completing those goals and added some great pitching talent to their system, I think that Atlanta actually comes out of this deal alright. Between Vizcaino, Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado, the Braves now have three of the best young power arms in the game, which is certainly something worth acknowledging. They still have a great rotation with Lowe, Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Kenshin Kawakami, and they likely can afford to retain Adam LaRoche now if they are interested. Certainly, being able to dump the three years and $45M remaining on Lowe's deal would've been ideal, especially considering the signs of decline that he showed in Atlanta, but that likely wasn't possible without eating a significant chunk of the contract, as indications out of Atlanta were that the Braves preferred to keep Vazquez.

Considering what the Phillies landed for one year of Cliff Lee, arguably a superior pitcher, at a cheaper salary, I think that Atlanta got a pretty solid return for Vazquez, even if it doesn't include the impact bat that Atlanta sorely needs. And with all of the moves that teams in that division have been making, it looks like the race for the AL East crown is getting really hot and Javy, eh?

Braves Re-Acquire Jeff Francoeur... in the form of Melky Cabrera

gondeee — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:32:36 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

For better or worse, Melky Cabrera is now a member of the Atlanta Braves.

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This is going to be a trade that's talked about for some time, along with the moves the Braves have made over the past year. If there is one constant in the moves the Braves have made in the past year, it is all about trimming money from the payroll.

In today's deal the Braves sent Javier Vazquez and his one-year $11.5 million salary to the Yankees along with Boone Logan and his $1.5 million likely arbitration figure. In return they get a rookie left-handed pitcher in Mike Dunn, an A-ball prospect in Arodys Vizcaino (two no-cost players), and outfielder Melky Cabrera, who will likely make around $3 million in arbitration. Ryan Church was scheduled to make around $4 million in arbitration, but by most accounts he's a better player than Cabrera. He's certainly not as highly thought of, but when healthy he hits for much more power than Cabrera likely ever will.

This begs the question, "did we trade away Jeff Francoeur (.743 career OPS) last year to acquire the better Ryan Church (.787 career OPS), only to release Church, and trade for Melky Cabrera (.716 career OPS), who is likely not as good as Francoeur?" Seems to me that the Braves end up on the short end of that outcome. Of course Cabrera is probably still "projectable" as a major leaguer, but how long did we say that about Francoeur?

There are two ways in which this trade will look good. First is in the money we will save and have available to potentially get a free agent bat that we've been needing. A rough total of the Braves salaries for next season currently comes to around $80 million (we only have one arbitration eligible player left, that's Peter Moylan). That would leave us with around $15 million to spend on a big bat... a nice sum, which should get us a good bat. The second way this trade will look good is if Arodys Vizcaino pulls his own version of Neftali Feliz in two or three years. We could also use him to acquire that big bat via trade, that would be an alternate way in which the trade would look good.

As it stands now, the Braves pattern the past year has been to strip salary. Kelly Johnson and Ryan Church were non-tendered, instead of being paid around $4 million a piece. Boone Logan was swapped for the cheaper Mike Dunn. Tim Hudson was re-signed at a more affordable salary than the now-traded Javier Vazquez. Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito will make less than Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.

All of this salary conservation has led up to this final purge from the books, and now the team must make a move that brings a big bat here, and they should have the salary room to do so. Perhaps with $15 million to spend, they can aim higher than Johnny Damon or Xavier Nady, and zero in on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. For some fans, that's the only way the team will win them back after another tumultuous off-season of questionable moves.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:51:04 -0000

by Keith Birmingham - AP

Another day, another picture of Randy Wolf.

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Some things to read while making your pitch to Gatorade.

It's been roughly 24 hours since we were told the Brewers were "very close" to a deal with Randy Wolf, but said deal has yet to materialize. Both Tom H. and Buster Olney are saying the Brewers are expecting a response today, now that Arn Tellem has had a day to shop the offer around, but reportedly hasn't found anyone willing to match it. Other notes on Wolf:

Tom H. says he "gets the feeling that the Brewers are suprised that Randy Wolf hasn't accepted their three-year offer yet."
Jayson Stark heard that the Brewers' offer to Wolf was bigger than the three year, $28 million deal the Braves recently gave Tim Hudson.
Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mets don't appear likely to land Wolf, and while MLB Trade Rumors lists them as showing interest in five other pitchers, Heyman says the price of mid-level pitching might drive them to spend a little more in pursuit of John Lackey.
The Junkball Blues has a look at the average return teams get on three year contracts to starting pitchers. There are some good ones (Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett), but also some disasters (Adam Eaton, Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano).
Jorge Says No! wonders about the wisdom of offering Wolf a third year, but says the Brewers' willingness to do it implies they don't think they can sign Prince Fielder to a long term deal.

By the way, over two months ago Jorge Says No! predicted Wolf would get three years, $31 million on the open market. Impressive.

I feel the need to clarify my position on the Wolf rumor a bit, because I feel I was a little hard on the front office in this one act play last night. I still don't think Wolf wants to play in Milwaukee, which is why Arn Tellem has spent the last 24 hours searching for anyone on a coast willing to match the Brewers' offer. With that said, I'll give credit where credit is due to the front office for finding the guy they wanted and being aggressive in an attempt to get him here. If it turns out that the scenario I laid out is true and Tellem was just using the Brewers to raise the price for someone else, so be it. At least we're talking about the Brewers making an effort, and not hearing the reasons why they can't.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are close to a deal to bring Claudio Vargas back for another season, and are just waiting for formal acceptance from Vargas and his agent (FanShot). Conversation on the deal is probably complicated a bit by the fact that Vargas is currently in the Dominican Republic pitching in winter ball.

They're also expecting an answer sometime today from Craig Counsell, who may or may not be seeking a two year deal for next season. It sounds like Counsell and his agent spent the day yesterday checking out other options. Don't be surprised if a deal gets done relatively quickly.

Ken Macha told reporters yesterday that Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are the only pitchers guaranteed a spot in the Brewer rotation next season, implying that Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will have to compete to earn an opportunity (FanShot). Open competition should be good for all involved, especially if the Crew manages to bring in some high-upside pitchers to compete.

Tom H. has all of those notes (and a terrible headline) in his roundup piece today, along with this note: The 40 man roster is starting to fill up, so don't be surprised if the Brewers decide not to take a chance on a Rule 5 pick in tomorrow's draft. I think that's a poor decision. Among others, Tim Dillard and Luis Cruz could probably pass through waivers without much notice. Passing on a cheap lottery ticket to protect one of those guys doesn't seem to make sense.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has a look at the speed of several Brewers who recently performed in the Arizona Fall League. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be in about the middle of the pack, while Taylor Green rated out way on the low end. They mustn't have had enough data to publish a ranking for Lorenzo Cain.
Angel Salome will be the next Brewer prospect to head out for winter ball: He's reportedly leaving at the end of the week to play for Este in the Dominican League. You can keep up with him and all the Brewer winter leaguers in our Winter League Updates.

We're continuing the effort to put together a BCB All Decade Team, and if you haven't cast your first votes yet, there's still time. Voting at first base will remain open until 4 pm today, and voting at second base runs until 4 pm tomorrow. Check back later today to vote for a shortstop.

Around baseball:

Braves: Designated outfielder Ryan Church for assignment.
D-Backs: Acquired pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three way deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and outfielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke to the Tigers.
Mets: Signed 1B/3B Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed outfielder Jerry Owens to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Signed Ross Gload to a two year deal.
Pirates: Are expected to sign Bobby Crosby to a one year deal.
Tigers: Signed catcher Robinzon Diaz, who was recently released by the Pirates.
Twins: Designated Boof Bonser for assignment.
White Sox: Signed Mark Teahen to a three year, $14 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Yankees: Will receive the #1 pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft as the PTBNL in the Brian Bruney trade.

Meanwhile, ~~Gritty von Canthitalick~~ Jason Kendall continues to search for work, but there's more suitors than you might think: The Rangers are reportedly strongly considering Kendall, now that Jarrod Saltalamacchia injured his shoulder playing winter ball. The Royals have also expressed interest.

From surprising news to what might possibly be the week's least surprising news: John Lackey is having a hard time finding a team willing to offer him a six year deal.

Actually, this might be the most surprising news: Kudos to the BBWAA for their decision to allow Sean Forman of Baseball Reference to join their organization.

We could have used this days ago, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a guide to deciphering sources in Winter Meeting rumors. Again today, the meetings provide us with some things you might never have known without the internet, and wouldn't have missed:

Michael Tucker, who hasn't played in the majors since 2006, is in Indianapolis and wants to play next season.
Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson heard about a trade offer the Diamondbacks made for him and was offended by it.
C. Trent Rosecrans gave the Meetings' Best Hat Award to Manny Acta.
Blue Jays beat reporter Jordan Bastian gives us a look at the hotel lobby, complete with Christmas tree.
Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com had to step away from the meetings for a moment to help his mom figure out the TV.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The 29 year old Panama native would spend the last nine years of his career as a Brewer, hitting .277/.345/.461, leading the AL with 41 home runs in 1980, and appearing in three All Star games.

Happy birthday today to:

Doc Medich, who made the final ten starts of his major league career for the 1982 Brewers, and turns 61.
Ed Romero, who spent parts of eight seasons as a Brewer in the late 70's and 80's and later served as a minor league infield coordinator and manager. He turns 52.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some snowblowing to do.

Drink up.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:49:17 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves hitter Brian McCann winning his third Silver Slugger award was just one of the highlights from this past week.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 15th:

In the Press...

Brian McCann won his third Sliver Slugger Award.
The Braves officially named Dave Wallace minor league pitching coordinator. They also named Garey Ingram hitting coach at double-A Mississippi.
The Braves signed a minor league shortstop as organizational depth.
After a couple of weeks of talking about it, and a week after it was signed, the Tim Hudson contract extension was officially announced.

At Talking Chop...

The SBN Awards were released, and Tommy Hanson won the SBN NL Rookie of the Year. Let's see if he can win the real thing this week.
CB presented the top-10 Braves right-handed starting pitching prospects in two parts, here and here.
Matt presented the top-10 Braves left-handed starting pitching prospects in two parts, here and here.
I think the Braves should sign Billy Wagner, simply because his agent is named Bean Stringfellow.
The bloggers at Talking Chop had round tables on right-handed and left-handed minor league starters.
Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents.
The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence continued to climb.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

royhobbs has a great review of the Brain McCann charity softball game.
tenesseejed1 shared some pictures of his trip to the AFL.
mvhsbball has a nice and nostalgic post about "Your first memory of the Atlanta Braves."

Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Climbs Higher

gondeee — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:21:38 -0000

There is a certain resiliency to the Braves, and their fans certainly feel the same way. After an exciting, then disappointing finish to the regular season, the Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Rating has climbed in each off-season sampling. The last in-season poll had the FCP at 64, then a climb to 70, then 72, and finally this week it reached 76 -- the highest the poll has been at any point since it was begun at the beginning of last season.

The signing of Tim Hudson certainly could have played a role in this turnaround, as the Braves and their fans now know that they will have the talented pitcher around for three to four more years, and that they also have the rotation flexibility to go out and trade one of their spare starting pitchers to fill other needs on the team.

The next poll will go up on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.

Tim Hudson's contract extension with the Braves is now official

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:38:45 -0000

The official announcement of Tim Hudson's contract extension with the Atlanta Braves has finally arrived. David O'Brien tweets that the extension is official, and that it is a three-year deal with a fourth-year option. More details here as they become available.

The financial details are in the Braves favor. Hudson took a hometown discount for his three-year with a fourth year option contract at $9 million a year. The club can buyout the fourth year for $1 million. Fantastic contract for the Braves, especially since Hudson is still in his prime.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:25:20 -0000

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 8th:

In the Press...

Baseball America released their top-10 Braves prospects for 2010.
SI.com reported that the Braves might make a play for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, but then Frank Wren shot down that rumor.
Talking Chop was one of the first to report that the Braves signed reliever Scott Proctor to a very affordable minor league contract.
Tim Hudson says his contract extension is essentially done, but we are still waiting on the MRI result on his right elbow before the Braves officially announce the deal.
Four Braves players filed for free agency.
Mike Minor got roughed up big-time in his start in the AFL Rising Stars game.
The blog, Stadium Journey, reviewed their visit to Turner Field.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence continued to rise this off-season.
We reviewed the 2009 seasons of the Braves starting pitchers, Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Kenshin Kawakami.
Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg was named the Topps Appy League Player of the Year.
I asked if J.J. Putz could be an option at closer for next year.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

jmorris811 shared a bunch of his Braves photos with us.
ryan c thinks Chipper Jones should be moved into the number-2 spot in the batting order.
arnec reprints a nice story about Ralph Garr and the Richmond Braves.
rbravesfan shares some pictures of the Rome Braves.
justincredubil02 cannot bring himself to believe that the Braves would trade Javier Vazquez.
mvhsball takes issue with columnist Mark Bradley's suggestion to make Tommy Hanson a closer.
PWHjort passes along a comment about Mike Minor from BA's Jim Callis.

Upcoming Events...

The first ever Brian McCann Celebrity Softball Game is set for November 13th... details here. We're making this a bit of a Talking Chop outing, so everyone get your tickets!
The Gwinnett Braves have a whole slate of off-season events planned at their ballpark, the list is here.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Kenshin Kawakami

gondeee — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:39:40 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Atlanta Braves' starter Kenshin Kawakami.

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Atlanta Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami took one month of the regular season to adjust to American baseball. His April starts produced a 7.06 ERA. While it was only four starts, including one really bad start, Kawakami made the adjustments and compiled ERAs of 3.03 and 3.33 the next two months, but because he still wasn't going deep in those games, he only won 3 of 10 starts in May and June. For the year he had the lowest quality start percentage of any of the Braves regular starters, as only half of his starts were considered quality starts.

The real theme of Kawakami's season was that his good games were really good, and his bad games were really bad. In his 12 losses he compiled a 6.24 ERA, giving up 74 hits in 57.2 innings; but in his 7 wins he had a 2.00 ERA and held opponents to a .196 batting average. He became known as the "dragon slayer" for his ability to pitch his best when his opposite on the mound was one of the top pitchers in baseball.

This "dragon slaying" started in Toronto when KK tossed 8 innings of 3-hit ball to best Roy Halladay. He out dueled fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka a month later with 6 strong innings. He matched Clayton Kershaw pitch for pitch with 7 scoreless innings as the Braves bullpen picked up the win. Then he took down Johan Santana and the Mets by tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball. And in his last start he knocked of the Marlins ace Josh Johnson.

In his final month as a starter (August), Kawakami pitched his best; compiling a 2.87 ERA and 5 of his 6 starts were quality starts. The Braves then made him a reliever for the rest of the year to allow Tim Hudson to join the starting rotation. Kawakami made a good adjustment to the pen. While he added two losses to his record, he did compile a 2.63 ERA as a reliever.

Overall KK finished with a respectable 3.86 ERA, but had a 4.21 FIP, so he may not have pitched as well as his ERA shows, or his bad games and his bad first month could have distorted the FIP number. He had the highest walk percentage and extra-base hit percentage of any of the Braves starters, but he received the lowest run support, so that 6-and-12 record looks bad, but it probably should have been a little better.

It's doubtful that the Braves choose to trade Kawakami this off-season, as they currently have 6 starters and one will likely have to go. He showed last year that he can be effective as a major league starter, and he showed that he can adjust to the challenges of the big league game. He knows now what it will take for him to pitch every five days (in Japan he pitched every 6 days), and what it will take to approach 200 innings as a starter. We saw that he was a tireless worker who takes pride in his craft, and he should arrive next spring ready to re-assume his role in the starting rotation and improve upon his positive games of 2009. Perhaps it would help if the Braves put him in the position in the rotation to face the other team's number-1 starter every time out.

Tim Hudson contract extension with the Braves essentially a done deal

gondeee — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:02:45 -0000

From MLB.com's Mark Bowman, here is the latest on the Atlanta Braves efforts to re-sign Tim Hudson:

Tim Hudson has passed his physical and essentially made his three-year contract extension a done deal. But the Braves may wait until the conclusion of the World Series to formally make this announcement.

Hudson and the Braves agreed to the terms of the three-year extension last week and then had to wait to find a doctor that the insurance company would approve.

David O'Brien reported a similar note this morning

The delay on Hudson extension resulted from the team having to find a doctor the insurance company approved of to do the physical. But they got the doc and Huddy passed the physical, from what I’m told. If so, it shouldn’t be much longer before they sign this deal and it gets announced.

Good. Signing Hudson is the right move. Now we get to endure a swirl of rumors about who the Braves will trade from the rest of the starting pitchers.