SB Nation - Arizona Diamondbacks

Why baseball needs a salary cap - or, "How can we stop the Yankees?"

Jim McLennan — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 01:00:18 -0000

Baseball believes they have a good system, yet, when you look at the results each year, more often than not it's the 'haves' … those with the big payrolls. Those who have the large revenue streams are the ones who go to the postseason. Now they'll hang their hat on the fact that once in a while some small-market team comes through. Most of the same small-market teams are on the bottom of their divisions, year in and year out, which in itself says something about the system.
-- Jerry Colangelo

The triumph of evil, in the shape of the New York Yankees 27th World Series victory, once again has discussion surfacing on payroll discrepancy and whether baseball needs a salary cap in some form [and I truly recommend you read Joe Posnanski's blog linked above]. The Yankees spent over $200 million, which is $52m more than the second-placed Red Sox, a gap larger than the entire amount spent by the Marlins, Padres or Pirates on their playing staffs. Accusations that the Steinbrenners "bought" a World Series inevitably follow. However, critics of a salary cap point out the wide spread of teams to have won the title in the past few years, with the great majority of franchises having at least tasted playoff baseball.

After the jump, let's delve into baseball finances and parity, to see if we can find a way to prevent the Yankees from winning the World Series forever...

Major-league baseball is the only major professional sport in North America without some form of salary cap in place - the NHL was the most recent to add one, and it's contention over that issue which cost the sport the entire 2004-05 season. The exact amount varies, from $2.3 million per team for Major League Soccer, to $128 million in the NFL. It's important to note that most sports also have a salary floor, which teams must pay out in salary: for the NFL this year, it's a little above $112m, so the range of discretionary spending for owners is not much more than 10%.

Baseball's current contributions towards financial parity are the luxury tax and revenue sharing. The luxury tax is a surcharge paid by teams over a certain salary amount, using the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters, plus any benefits. In 2009, the limit is $162m, so the Yankees will be the only team due to pay anything to the commissioner's office. The rate charged depends on the frequency of the team going over the threshold. At the end of last year, the Yankees paid a 40% surcharge, costing them $26.9m, while the Tigers were only assessed at a 22.5% rate as 2008 was their "first offense".

In all honesty, you might rename it the Steinbrenner Tax: his team have paid a total of $148.5m over the six season it has been in effect (not including this year), more than 90% of the total. The Red Sox are next, down at $13.9m, while the Tigers and Angels are the only others to have hit the threshold, and hardly register on the financial radar, at $1.3m and $927K respectively.Then there's revenue sharing: the calculations involved are somewhat arcane, so I'll refer the interested reader to this article. While detailed numbers for this aspect are not publicly available, it was reportedly responsible for about $450 million being transferred from the richer teams to the poorer this year.

But is it enough or does baseball need an adjustment to improve parity? I'm unimpressed by the argument that the past nine World Series have been won by eight different teams. Not when the rankings by salary of the winner, since the Diamondbacks arrived in 1998, are: 2, 1, 1, 8, 15, 25, 2, 13, 11, 2, 12, 1. Half the time, it's gone to the team with the biggest or second-biggest payroll: only once to those in the lower-half. More generally, the chart below plots games won against salary, compared to league average for that season - a team paying out more will have a value on the bottom above one, less than average is below one.

The eight highest ratios - from 1.87 to 2.85 (in 2005) - all belong to the Yankees. The next highest was 1.84 by the 2004 Red Sox, who won the World Series that year, of course. Perhaps making things clearer, here are the percentage chances of a team posting various records, based on the amount they spend, along with the average number of wins for teams in that salary bracket.

Salary	<= 70	71-80	81-90	91+	Avg
< 0.50 (20 teams)	45%	35%	15%	5%	73.9
0.50-0.75 (70)	39%	26%	23%	13%	75.8
0.76-1.00 (75)	19%	33%	36%	12%	79.4
1.01-1.25 (62)	15%	32%	27%	26%	82.1
1.26-1.50 (48)	2%	15%	40%	44%	87.9
1.51+ (25)	8%	8%	32%	52%	89.6
Avg. Salary	0.77	0.90	1.05	1.27

Only three of 63 teams who outspent MLB average by more than 25%, ended up with 70 or less wins - the 2008 Mariners (131%, 61 wins), plus the 2003 (165%, 66 wins) and 2009 Mets (169%, 70 wins).
Conversely, the only team to have reached above ninety victories while spending less than half the average amount were last year's Rays (49%, 97 wins).
Teams with a winning record spent 38% more than those at or below .500 - 115.3% of average, compared to 83.6%.
In 2009, that 115.3% is a payroll of $102 million. The nine teams this year to crack nine digits averaged 88.4 wins, with the Mets and Astros having losing records.

However, a single year is a snapshot. To quote Posnanski, baseball "tends to equalize teams. That helps blur the dominance of the Yankees. If the New England Patriots were allowed to spend $50 million more on players than any other team, they would go 15-1 or 16-0 every single year. And people would not stand for it. But in baseball, a great and dominant team might only win 95 out of 160, and it doesn’t seem so bad." There's also the nature of the post-season: "a crap-shoot," according to Bobby Cox, or to quote the ever-quotable Billy Beane, "My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f_cking luck." This hides the fact that since their last World Series victory in 2000, the Yankees have had the best record in the AL four times, and made the playoffs every year but one.

So the picture gets even starker when you look at the totals over the entire decade. The graph below shows a team's average number of wins from 2000-09, against their expenditure over that time, compared to the MLB mean. The statistical correlation between payroll and wins jumps up from 0.43 to 0.67 [where zero would be no connection, and one would be a perfect match]. Even with the smaller number of data points, the association is obvious. While a team can hope to buck the odds and win for a season or two without spending money, if they want to do so on a regular basis, they simply have to shell out.

No prizes for guessing what team the spot in the far top-right of the graph represents, but if you need a clue, dress it in pin-stripes. The only teams to have managed 82 wins or better over the past decade, while spending below average, are the Twins (66%, 86.3 wins) and Athletics (70%, 89.0 wins). So it is possible to do well on a small-budget. It just isn't easy - especially in a consistent manner, rather than just for a season or two. The reason is obvious: free-agency, which means your best players will inevitably gravitate towards better contracts elsewhere. The Diamondbacks, incidentally, are almost in the middle of both axes: we've spent 102% of MLB average, and have won 80.5 games per season.

Another factor is that it's not just the size of the Yankees' contracts that is intimidating, it's the length of them. Jon Marthaler reports that there are only two teams in baseball which currently have a significant amount of cash (more than $30m) committed for the 2013 season. One is the Blue Jays, or as Jon calls it, "the Land of Bad Future-Inflated Over-Long Contracts." However, far beyond even them are the Yankees, who are already paying over $92.2 million in 2013 to just four players - A-Rod, Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett. That quartet alone will earn more than the entire payroll this season of eighteen major-league teams. The same goes for the 2012 season, with the Yankees already $40m ahead of the rest of the league.

One important thing is that competitive parity is not just about stopping the Yankees from steam-rolling their way to the playoffs, season after season. We also need to take a look at the bottom of the chart, because a salary floor is equally as important as a salary cap. This is where we find our expansion siblings in Tampa: for every dollar spent in the Bronx, they had less than a quarter to work with. Put another way, the Yankees spent $10m more on payroll in the past two years than the Rays did in the entire decade. Last year aside, the results have been dismal, with the team averaging below seventy victories per year. It does put them above Pittsburgh (68.1 wins) and Kansas City (67.2) - neither team spending even 65% of average.

That's why it's important to have a salary floor as well. Too often, owners basically grab the income from revenue sharing and pocket it, rather than investing it back into the team, as was the intent of the program. The Marlins reportedly take more in revenue-sharing than they spend on MLB player payroll. Of course, it's impossible to tell, since baseball franchises, being privately-held corporations, are under no obligation to open their books - even as some of them receive tens of millions of dollars in income from the commissioner's office every year. Accountability here appears to be strictly on the honor system: and we all know how well this works in big business.

The question of what, exactly, needs to be done is complex. An increase in the luxury tax, making it a good deal more punitive, since the Yankees apparently regard it as the cost of doing business, in the style to which they have become accustomed. An adjustment to revenue sharing, in particular, transparency to ensure that money intended to improve a team's on-field situation, is used for exactly that. However, the first step with any problem is to admit it exists. Bud instead trumpets, "We have certainly more parity than ever before," and compares baseball to the NFL, where they have full revenue sharing and a salary cap: "What about Oakland? What about Jacksonville? You could go on and on. What about Detroit, who hasn't made a playoff now in I don't know how many years?"

The difference really shouldn't need to be pointed out. In the NFL, it's smart, well-run teams win out, not those with the most money. If an NFL team keeps being stupid, and making bad decisions, they will keep right on losing. This is the American way. Those who decry the notion of a salary cap as "commie" are missing the boat: the US, and US sports, should be a meritocracy, with the best-managed and best-run teams rising to the top each year, rather than simply those which squat in the largest, most profitable markets and so possess the deepest wallets. Wait till Brandon Webb, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are all playing for the Yankees in 2015 or so...

Selig also said in September: "The Brewers are not a one-year wonder. Tampa Bay is not a one-year wonder. I still think we have enormous competitive balance." The Brewers ended 2009 with a losing record, while the Rays barely scraped above .500, finishing nineteen games back and in third-place. That's where the problem of baseball's lack of competitive balance starts: the refusal of the commissioner, who can do anything he wants "in the best interests of the game," to admit that the current system is badly-broken. And if it's ever to be corrected, that's where any solution will have to start too. I'll finish with a final quote from Posnanski:

That team that spent $50 million more than any other team, that team with three sure Hall of Famers and as many as four others, that team that bought Milwaukee’s best pitcher and Anaheim’s best hitter and Toronto’s No. 2 starter and Boston’s favorite Idiot and the most expensive player in the history of baseball and so on, that team will win the World Series, and spray champagne on each other, and they will tell you that they won because they came together as a group and kept pulling themselves off the ground and didn’t listen to the doubters.

And then, if you are a not a Yankees fan, you will want to throw up. If you are not a Yankees fan, you are left hoping that next year the randomness of a short playoff series will get the Yankees and allow some other team to win so we can celebrate the hope of Opening Day. And that’s baseball.

To which all I can add is: yes, that's baseball. But it doesn't have to be.

[The salary and wins spreadsheet used in the course of writing this article is available as a Google document here.]

Poll

Does baseball need restrictions on salaries?

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

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Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as one third of his total $8.3 million) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,766,667	$5,533,333	2

Total		$52,324,667	$77,816,333

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$28,875,060	141.14%

Grand Total Payroll: $84,524,567

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $87 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 567% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:20:18 -0000

by Brian Snyder - AP

Yes, Randy Wolf is a Brewer now.

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Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."

Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:

Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.

But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.

Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.

Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.

Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.

Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.

Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.

You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most ~~depressing~~ interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.

Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.

While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.

Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.

Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.

With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.

It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.

Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.

On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.

Drink up.

MLB Trade Rumors: Rafael Soriano and Brandon Lyon= 2010 Closers?

raygu — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:00:30 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

3 days ago: FILE - In this March 15, 2009, file photo, Atlanta Braves pitcher Rafael Soriano throws to a Houston Astros batter during a spring training baseball game in Kissimmee, Fla. Soriano made a surprise decision a on Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, to accept salary arbitration. The Braves last week signed closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito. The expectation was Soriano and Mike Gonzalez would decline salary arbitration offers and become free agents. Instead, Soriano is still with Braves and can't be traded prior to June 16 without his consent. (AP Photo/Rob Carr, File)

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Well, it appears the Rays and Astros have new closers for 2010. The Rays have traded reliever Jesse Chavez to the Braves for closer Rafael Soriano.

In addition, the Astros have signed Tigers reliever Brandon Lyon, after closer Jose Valverde elected to decline arbitration and losing out on signing LaTroy Hawkins. They also traded some prospects to the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom. I presume that Lyon will be the Astros closer in 2010 as he signed a 3-year $15 million deal with the 'Stros. But, I would draft Lindstrom as well, as Lyon is not the most consistent closer. Then again, Lindstrom's 2009 season was downright terrible.

Lindstrom saved 15 games in 2009, with an ERA of 5.89 and a WHIP of 1.64. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.64, walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings, and an extremely low LOB% OF 62%. Lyon, on the other hand, had a very solid 2009 season going 6-5 with 3 saves, a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

Lyon has never been a big strikeout pitcher as he had a 6.5 K/9 ratio, and a 3.5 BB/9 ratio. What worries me about Lyon is he had a extremely low BABIP of .229 and an extremely high LOB% of 80%. Should these ratios regress to his career averages of .305 BABIP and 71% LOB, his ERA and WHIP will suffer, and the blown saves will accumulate. Remember he lost his closer job in 2008 with the Diamondbacks by blowing several saves late in the season as the DBacks were battling for the NL West division title.

But the big question is, where is elsewhere for Valverde and Mike Gonzalez? In the National League, there are few choices-maybe the Phillies, or the Marlins if they want an upgrade at closer, or the Nationals, but they have prospect Drew Storen who is close to ready.

Poll

Can Brandon Lyon duplicate his 2009 season with the Astros in 2010?

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Four Pitchers Allen-Hale

Zephon — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:54:41 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Keith Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.

For this, the fourth part of the piece, we'll begin to look at the arms added to the system, eighteen in all. How to break up these picks was perhaps the biggest dilemma for this week's piece. It's impossible to know which guys will end up as starters and which will end up as relievers, so that distinction was a no-go. Lefty vs. righty would have resulted in two really lopsided articles, with the Snakes picking fourteen righties to just four lefties. So we got creative, and first split the article alphabetically, so that the first article will cover A-Hale, and the second article will cover Harvil-Z. Then, within each article, the prospects are organized from highest to lowest draft position. It's not a perfect organization, but it works well enough, especially when given the alternative options.

The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success. It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.

Baseball is one of those rare sports where the ultimate team mentality is directly clashing with one person's determination to dominate a contest on his own. No one offensive player, or even no pair of offensive players, can win game after game single-handedly, as Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton so aptly demonstrated last season. Offense is a team collaboration in baseball, and requires a stringing-together of multiple successful at-bats in order to effectively produce runs. Pitching, on the other hand, is completely opposite of this. Sure, a good defense can help a pitcher out, but the defense cannot affect the pitches being thrown. Even the best offenses can be effectively shut down by a dominant pitcher, and an amazing start can mesmerize a crowd. And, for Arizona, that has been a point well-made by some of the dominant starters to grace the mound for the Snakes.

The first four that will be, and should be, mentioned are the two duos, co-World Series MVP's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling from the marvellous 2001 season, and two guys on the roster today who, when at their best, are bona fide Cy Young contenders, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. However, what deserves to be noted about these two pairs of aces is how they were attained by the organization. Johnson was signed as a free agent after a late-season trade to the Astros, and Schilling was acquired from Philadelphia for three young but mostly big-league ready players (Travis Lee, Vincente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa) and Omar Daal. On the other hand, Webb was developed as a prospect after being an absolutely astounding find in the eighth round of the 2000 draft (which leaves us to wonder why we don't now take a pitcher every year in the eighth round out of moral obligation), and Haren was acquired in 2007 along with fringe-average reliever Connor Robertson (later traded for Scott Schoeneweis) from Oakland in exchange for six prospects (Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Chris Carter) who are just now starting to seep into the major leagues.

Sifting below the cream, you can also find a number of quality #3/#4 types who have hit the rubber for Arizona, including Brian Anderson, who is third on Arizona's innings-pitched list behind Johnson and Webb, Miguel Batista, fifth on that list after Schilling, Doug Davis at #6, Daal at #7, and Andy Benes at #8. As for relievers, we've had great luck with young, inexpensive back-of-the-pen options Byung-Hyun Kim, Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Mike Koplove, and Juan Cruz. Any way you slice it, pitching has typically been a position of strength for Arizona.

Next season, however, may be a different story. The rotation has one big hole at the #4 slot, one big question in whether or not Brandon Webb will be able to return close to his #1 form as our #2 starter, and one big competition amongst Billy Buckner, Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augenstein, and Cesar Valdez for the #5 slot. The discussion has been rampant on the 'Pit as to who the team will sign for that #4 slot, with Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Pedro Martinez, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Eric Bedard, and even Chris Capuano's scattered ashes all being tossed out (no pun intended... okay, yes it was) as signing possibilities. Perhaps the only certainty about this situation is that we will sign a guy, probably later on in the bidding process when some of the market has diminished and the guys who are left are scrambling to try to find a roster that needs them.

Further, the system has no real impact guys close to major-league ready now that star prospect Jarrod Parker is going to be shelved for all of 2010 recovering from TJ surgery, although the organization does have a fair number of #4/#5 potential arms in the upper ranks. In the upper levels of the system aside from the aforementioned foursome, amongst whom only Augenstein probably has the potential to be anything above a #4 guy (and even that will require some serious work on his secondary offerings), Tony Barnette could be ready to be a #5 guy in 2011, Matt Torra could see a rotation in 2011 or 2012, and while Barry Enright's ERA dropped across the hardest jump in the minors, his metrics need a major rebound year to get him back to being a top prospect as he was a year ago (K:BB fell from over 4:1 to 2.8:1). Tom Layne pitched well in the AFL and can be either a starter or reliever. Wes Roemer proved his dominance over the California League before having a solid season at Mobile. Further down in the system there is some promise, with both Trevor Harden and Pat McAnaney ending the season with decent numbers at Visalia. Bryan Shaw's metrics at Visalia indicate he was the victim of some serious bad luck, and he still had some moderate success as a starter. Wade Miley had a solid season at South Bend, and will start at Visalia next season.

Relief arms are also aplenty, and even after trading away Dan Schlereth, they still have a few lefties stashed away with Leyson Septimo and Jordan Norberto having.... interesting.... years in the minors, and Clay Zavada's big debut season solidifying the left-handed relief contingent to the point where the organization felt comfortable in trading away LOOGY-in-the-making Scott Maine in the Aaron Heilman trade. Roque Mercedes looks like another great piece added from the Felipe Lopez trade, and Bryan Henry had a good year at Visalia. Reid Mahon lost the ground-ball-inducing ability on his sinker, and needs to find it quickly if he's going to rebound and have major-league value. 40-man roster men Daniel Stange and Kyler Newby each have a lot of work to do in not a lot of time if they're going to reach the majors, in both cases involving the finding of lost K-rates. Bryan Woodall had a good season in South Bend, striking out ten per nine innings. Josh Ellis was lights out in Mobile, but while the wheels fell off in Reno, the lack of any metric spikes leads me to believe foul luck was a factor. Finally, Billy Spottiswood had a peculiar (and luck-filled) season, being promoted from Hi-A to AAA to provide rest for Reno's arms, and despite metric spikes and dips all over (K-rate drop, BB-rate spike, HR-rate spike), his WHIP fell, as did his ERA.

Yet, in drafting arms, there really isn't much of a pattern that can be adhered to. Teams look for a few things - projectionability (a tall body with wide shoulders that indicate the potential to add extra bulk and hence extra velocity on a pitcher's fastball - also an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury), smooth pitching mechanics (typically an indicator of a pitcher's ability to resist injury, although I've heard recent studies say mechanics have little indication on a pitcher's risk of injury), and, of course, what a pitcher already has - the stuff he posesses, his command, poise, feel for pitching, and production in high school and/or college. Even more difficult is knowing what role a pitcher will end up in. For an example that has already been covered to a slight extent, a guy who begins his minor-league career as a potential left-handed ace (Scott Maine) can wind up with LOOGY-upside by the time he reaches AAA (hence why we dealt him in the aforementioned Aaron Heilman trade). You just never know, as so much can go wrong with a pitching prospect, even the best of them (see - aforementioned Jarrod Parker).

Really, the only thing a team can do is try to mix a combination of college arms with polish and shorter paths to the majors with higher-upside high school arms who have a bigger risk of injuries due to the need for a longer development time in the minors. However, the D-Backs' philosophy in the early rounds tends to lean towards college arms, with past arms such as Daniel Schlereth (University of Arizona - 1st round, 2008), Wade Miley (Southeastern Louisiana University - 1st round, 2008), Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton - 1st round, 2007), Max Scherzer (University of Missouri - 1st round, 2006), Brooks Brown (University of Georgia - 1st round, 2006), and Matt Torra (University of Massachusetts - 1st round, 2005) all being high picks from colleges. Not to say that the team will refuse to select a high school arm early, but typically if they're going to do so, they look for some polish in the player they're drafting, as was the case with Jarrod Parker (Norwell HS in Ossian, Indiana - 1st round, 2007), whose minor-league pitching career began in Mid-A South Bend, and who had made it to AA Mobile before elbow injuries ended his season in '09. This philosophy stems from the team's budget consciousness, as they look for safer bets to spend their money on in the early rounds of the draft so as to not have a complete disaster cost them a multi-million dollar signing bonus without any return. And, indeed, this philosophy remained intact for the '09 class, as the first four arms taken, Mike Belfiore, Eric Smith, Bradin Hagens, and Chase Anderson, were all from the college ranks. So, without further ado:

1/2 Sandwich Round, Pick 45 - Michael Belfiore
Born: October 3, 1988 in Commack, New York School: Boston College Height: 6'3'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Left
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 2-2 IP: 58.0 ERA: 2.17 FIP: 2.48 BABIP: .344 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 55:13 GO:AO: 1.85:1

Zephon: Michael Belfiore is a hard throwing left handed pitcher who'll hopefully rise through the system quickly, and looking at his excellent debut season, it looks he might just do that. Baseball America ranked Belfiore as our number seven prospect. Looking at his numbers, there's not a single thing that I don't like. He's got an excellent 2.17 ERA to go along with a mighty fine 1.24 WHIP. In addition, he's got an excellent almost 5:1 strike out to walk ratio. An excellent debut season all around. look for him in High A Visalia next season, or possibly AA Mobile by season's end. In my opinion, Belfiore is a top 10 prospect, and one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the Diamondbacks farm system. Grade A (Short term: A Long term: A+)

IHSB: Mike Belfiore cemented his status as one of the top-10, prospects in the D-Backs system with his absolutely ridiculous debut season in Missoula. There's so much to like. The first-half-Haren-esque ERA. The 1.24 WHIP. The K:BB. How often he induces ground ball outs with his heavy fastball despite definitely being a strikeout pitcher. Even the fact that he throwed left-handed, which seems to add an extra couple million dollars on a free-agent pricetag. The only things counting against Belfiore are that we expected a good season from a guy who was the 45th pick, was 20 years old after some time in college ball, and was in rookie-ball with a bunch of high school kids, but by all accounts Belfiore destroyed any expectations the team may have had for him, and was absolutely a man amongst boys. Consider this deeper look into the numbers: the team's plan involved Belfiore starting with a few relief outings before going into the rotation. In three relief appearances, he accumulated a 7.36 ERA. However, knowing his season ERA, you know where this is headed. In his 11 starts following the bullpen disaster, Belfiore absolutely dominated in the role he's more accustomed to, and will be in for his career, posting a 1.82 ERA. Expect him to certainly skip Low-A, and earn himself a promotion to Hi-A by mid-season if he lights up the Midwest League the way he lit up the Pioneer League. Or, perhaps the Jarrod Parker promotion track could be applied to Belfiore (second season begins in Hi-A, quick promotion to AA if performance merits it). As a side note, he also played first base in college and has drawn Micah Owings comparisons because of his ability to win more games than his ERA would merit due to helping himself with his bat, another tool that will keep him in a rotation. Grade: A (Short-term: A-, Long-term: A)

Round 6, Pick 186 - Bradin Hagens
Born: May 12, 1989 in Denair, California School: Merced JC (California) Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 23.2 ERA: 3.42 FIP: 2.99 BABIP: .350 WHIP: 1.48 K:BB: 13:6 GO:AO: 2.56:1

Zephon: Although I can't find a scouting report on Hagens, I do know that the Diamondbacks like his arm and the sink he gets on his fastball. Hagens is a groundball pitcher.The club saw him throw up to 94 mph and will hope he can develop his secondary stuff. 23.2 innings pitched doesn't give you that much of a sample size to work with, but I'll try my hand at grading this guy anyway. 3.42 ERA is below league average, the whip is a little high, and the strike out to walk ratio is decent, not great. He's got a nice GO/AO ratio as well. He does get extra points for being young, however. This is a guy I need to see pitch for a full season. Grade: B (Short term B, Long term B)

IHSB: Well, there are certainly two types of really successful pitchers: the first type is like Belfiore, where stuff leads to strikeouts, which leads to BABIP not resulting in a pitcher's demise. The second type is represented by Hagens - ground ball pitchers who rely on the fact that BABIP on a lazy ground ball to the shortstop is pretty close to zero to get outs. Hagens had a decent GO:AO ratio last season from the sink he gets on his fastball, and despite a pretty scary WHIP, a guy getting that many groundouts isn't going to have that high of a BABIP, leading me to believe that some bad luck bit at Hagens last year and that the scary WHIP will go down a little. His frame is a bit small for a pitcher, but if you're going to try to do it at 6'1'', relying on sink rather than overpowering stuff is probably the way to go unless you want to blow out an elbow (see: Jarrod Parker). He's got a few things working for him going into next season, likely at Yakima. Grade: B- (Short-term: C+ Long-term: B-)

Round 9, Pick 276 - Chase Anderson
Born: November 30, 1987 in Wichita Falls, Texas School: University of Oklahoma Height: 6'1'' Weight: 175 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 3-1 IP: 45.1 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.43 BABIP: .299 WHIP: 1.06 K:BB: 48:13 GO:AO: 1.43:1

Zephon: This is what I know about Chase Anderson outside of his stats: He doesn't have the biggest frame at 6'1'' and 175 pounds, but the Diamondbacks like the toughness and athleticism he brings to the table. He gets up to 92-93 mph and has three solid pitches. Personally I'd like to have seen him start off in Low-A Yakima, not rookie ball, as he's a little old for the level. Hopefully the Diamondbacks have him start out in Middle A South Bend next season. Looking at Anderson's actual debut season, he did very well. Anderson dominated the Pioneer League, holding opponents to a 2.38 ERA and an impressive 1.06 WHIP. His K:BB ratio was a very solid (almost) 4:1 and he has a slight groundball tendency. Overall, a very nice debut season, with room for growth. Normally, I'd knock down a grade for the potential for injury risk as in the case for Anderson, but technically that applies to every pitcher. Pitchers are fragile, and that's where the phrase TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) comes from. Grade: A (Short term A, Long term B+)

IHSB: The small frame and lack of ability to collect ground-balls scares me with Anderson, as reaching back and pulling 93 mph out of a 6'1'' body can't be easy on the arm. However, if the injuries manage to stay away, the numbers on Anderson look good. He doesn't walk a whole lot of guys, and K's over one per inning. He's a guy the organization is going to have to handle well, but is a high-risk, high-reward potential. Grade: B+ (Short-term: A, Long-term: B)

Round 11, Pick 336 - Scott Allen
Born: July 3, 1991 in Lyman, California School: Lyman HS Height: 6'1'' Weight: 165 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-0 IP: 17.2 ERA: 0.51 FIP: 2.58 BABIP: .210 WHIP: 0.91 K:BB: 16:7 GO:AO: 0.89:1

Zephon: One of the two high school arms taken by the Diamondbacks in the draft, Scott Allen dominated in his brief stint with Missoula, holding his opponent to a 0.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. I don't think any one can maintain that kind of performance over any length of time, and his 2.58 FIP, suggests that he's clearly due for some regression next year. But he does have a nice 2-1 K:BB ratio, and he's got a 8.15 K/9. I think once we see him pitch in a full seasons worth of games, we can get a more accurate judgement of his potential. He did have nice little run in Missoula. Grade: B+ (Short Term A, Long term: B)

IHSB: The BABIP is definitely going to regress against Allen, but a 0.51 ERA is always something nice and flashy to look at. If these seventeen innings are any indication, Allen is a strikeout guy, as his GO:AO suggests that reliance on his ability to induce ground balls is foolhardy. He'll need to reduce his walk rate, but given that he's an eighteen-year-old high school kid, Allen definitely has time to develop his command of the zone. A flashy and solid, but not great, year, with a bright future if he can cut back on his walks and continue to develop his stuff. One other concern, which drops his grade down a bit, is the 6'1'' frame, as it leads to questions as to just how much projectionability and velocity he can add to his fastball over the course of his development. Grade: B (Short-term: B-, Long-term: B+)

Round 12, Pick 366 - Charles Brewer
Born: April 7, 1988 in Paradise Valley, California School: UCLA Height: 6'4'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-level Missoula: 7-2, 54.2IP ERA: 2.47 FIP: 2.96 BABIP: .295 WHIP: 1.06, K:BB: 61:15 GO:AO: 1.62:1

Zephon: Brewer is a big right handed pitcher who can pitch 90-94 MPH. There was some talk that he didn't really "fit in" at UCLA, and they made changes to his arm slot and delivery from his days pitching in high school. Brewer had a very nice debut season, with a dominant 2.47 ERA, and a first half Dan Haren-esque WHIP. His strike out to walk ratio is a very impressive 4:1, and he has a slight groundball tendency. Brewer is a possible sleeper candidate going into next year, especially if he finds the right groove in his arm slot and delivery. Grade: B+ (Short term: A Long Term: B)

IHSB: Zephon covered all of the questions revolving his days at UCLA, so all that's left is to deal with the great season the kid had. He worked as both a starter and reliever, although with much better raw results out of the 'pen (1.59 ERA in 10 appearances) than in the rotation (3.09 ERA in 7 starts). Nonetheless, the kid is big at 6'4'', has a great K:BB rate of 4:1, gets a little bit of help from ground balls, and actually walked batters at a less frequent rate as a starter (just 4 in 32 innings) than as a reliever (11 in 22.2 innings) with just a slight dip in strikeouts per inning (33/32 as a starter, 28/22.2 as a reliever), so my bet is that they'll try to keep sending him out there every fifth day due to the value of a starter being greater than that of a reliever. Great start for a 12th round pick. Grade: A- (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B+)

Round 24, Pick 726 - Brad Gemberling
Born: 12/09/1986 in Swarthmore, PA School: Princeton University Height: 6'1'' Weight: 205 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 0-1 IP: 42.0 ERA: 6.43 FIP: 3.53 BABIP: .416 WHIP: 1.81 K:BB 44:20 GO/AO 1.71

Zephon: Another victim of bad luck and bad defense, Gemberling did not pitch nearly as bad as his 6.43 ERA suggests. Yeah, his BB/9 was a pretty high 4.29, but his K/9 is a pretty darn good at 9.43. His FIP is a full 3 runs lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is an outrageously high .416. I would expect in the long term for the BABIP to drop and his ERA to follow suit. Expect this guy to improve next season. Grade: I can't really give this guy a grade. If I absolutely had to, it would be a C- overall.

IHSB: The strikeouts are sure nice, as is the case anytime you strike out more than one guy per inning, and the GO:AO also helps a little, but the walks have to come down. 2.2:1 isn't a great K:BB ratio for a relief arm, especially one who racks up as many K's as Gemberling did, and while bad luck certainly hurt Gemberling last year, you're asking for bad luck whenever you walk that many guys. But, of course, the BABIP will likely drop by at least 100 points, and the rest of his numbers will adjust accordingly. Next year will be the year where we really get a good feel for Gemberling and what he can really do, both in terms of luck and in terms of what he can do about reducing those walks. Also, given his propensity for K's and short frame, injuries always loom as a question. It's crazy to say this about someone who threw 42 innings this season, but... Grade: Incomplete

Round 27, Pick 816 - Jake Hale
Born: 12/11/1985 in Athens, OH School: Ohio State Height: 6'7'' Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 2-2 IP: 17.0 ERA: 5.29 FIP: 3.09 BABIP: .438 WHIP: 1.47 K:BB 14:6 GO/AO: 1.92
Rookie-level Missoula: W-L: 1-1 IP: 9.0 ERA: 6.00 FIP: 4.32 BABIP: .334 WHIP: 1.67 K:BB 10:2 GO/AO: 1.13

Zephon: All though his numbers at first glance look pretty ugly with the 5.29 ERA in Yakima and the 6.00 ERA in Missoula, once you dig deeper, this guy didn't pitch that bad, and was the victim of some extremely bad luck. His FIPs at both levels are a good 2 runs lower at each level. In addition his .428 BABIP in Yakima is just down right unlucky. His K:BB ratio combined at both levels is a pretty decent 3 to 1. Overall, I'd say this guy is a victim of bad luck, and I would expect his numbers to regress to the mean. Grade: Incomplete (not enough innings)

IHSB: Bad luck bites Hale as Zephon noted, especially at Yakima. The K/BBs are good, and everything else checks out. My buggest question is which of the GO/AO ratios are going to be the one Hale follows for his career. Regardless, though, he has a good frame, good metrics, and appears to be a decent relief arm to have stashed away. Grade: Incomplete

Round 28, Pick 846 - Brian Budrow
Born: 11/12/1986 in Glendale, Arizona School: University Of Utah Height: 6'3'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Low-A Yakima: W-L: 3-3 IP: 34.0 ERA: 2.38 FIP: 2.70 BABIP: .306 WHIP: 1.24 K:BB: 28:12 GO/AO: 1.84

Zephon: This is a guy who put up some pretty impressive numbers for a guy who was drafted with the 846th pick. He's got a great ERA and there's not much of discrepency between it and his FIP. His WHIP is excellent, and his GA/AO is pretty nice. The K/BB is a solid 2.33, and would be even better if he could cut down the walks just a shade. He's right on track for age. Grade: B (Short Term: A- Long Term: B-)

IHSB: Some good numbers from Budrow, but my biggest question is what is he? The K-rate, 7.4 per 9 innings, isn't great for a power bullpen arm, while the GO:AO ratio isn't good enough for a sinkerballer bullpen arm. Also, walks too many guys at 3.2 per 9 innings. However, even with the walks, combining those two other numbers produces good results, as noted by Budrow's good season. It's just a matter of him being able to keep up his hybrid act, and if he can't, what he is going to be. Grade: B (Short-term: A-, Long-term: B-)

Round 31, Pick 936 - Keith Cantwell
Born: 09/09/1987 in Tinton Falls, New Jersey School: Seton Hall University Height: 6'5'' Weight: 215 Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right
Rookie-Level Missoula: W-L: 4-0 IP: 35.0 ERA: 4.11 FIP: 1.74 BABIP: .390 WHIP: 1.17 K:BB 44:5

Zephon: Although Keith Cantwell is a late round pick who's a little old for Rookie Level ball, This is a guy who has an 11.31 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, and an almost 9:1 strike out to walk ratio. Oh and his HR/9? It's 0.26. Those are some serious video game numbers, yet somehow this guy has a 4.11 ERA. Once you look up his 1.74 FIP and .390 BABIP, it's clear this guy was the victim of some terrible bad luck. And to top it off, dude was drafted with the 936th pick of the draft. The only real knock is his age, which at 22 is a bit old for rookie ball. I'd expect him to skip a level and start out at Mid-A South Bend next year. I'm not sure about the long term future of this guy, but i think he could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft. Grade: A- (Short Term A-, Long Term B+)

IHSB: Cantwell's a guy with some really frightening metrics. A K:BB ratio of 8.8:1 is something I've never seen. It's really a shame that BABIP decided to screw him, because the average fan wouldn't recognize how great of a season Cantwell had because his ERA is so mediocre. But this is a guy who really belongs in either South Bend or Visalia to start 2010, a level more appropriate with both his skill level and his age. Also has a great frame at 6'5'', meaning he could easily continue to develop and be a major-league bullpen piece someday. For where he was drafted, it's impossible not to say that this was an absolute heist. Guys taken in the 31st round aren't supposed to have any chance of a future in the majors, and this guy has a pretty legitimate one, which is all you could hope for. Grade: A (Short-term: A, Long-term: A-)

We'll continue our look at the remaining pitchers taken in the draft with pitchers Harvil-Wilson. No real conclusion on the pitchers this week, for that you'll have to wait until next week. Thanks to IHSB, and everyone involved in the making of these articles. In addition, a special thanks goes out to you, the reader for your comments and constructive criticism.

How Arizona's Josh Byrnes Fueled the Three-Team Trade

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:15:06 -0000

If you want to get an idea of how yesterday's three-team trade between the Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and New York Yankees came together, the New York Post's Joel Sherman passes along the details he heard.

The way I heard how the Granderson trade began was that Arizona was trying to get Edwin Jackson at the GM Meetings and was told Max Scherzer was too little of a return, but felt Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth was too much. So Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes' first call was to Cashman because he assumed Granderson fit the Yankees' needs so ideally, and that the Yanks had resources that Detroit wanted.

That basically falls in line with what we'd heard previously, that the Tigers didn't think Scherzer alone was enough for Jackson. But it's interesting to see how one GM calls another one up with an idea that could get a deal done. We saw much the same thing last year in the three-team J.J. Putz deal, with Omar Minaya knowing he could get Franklin Gutierrez from Cleveland, which filled the centerfield need in Seattle.

(In a different article, Sherman explains that the Yankees jumped at the chance to get Curtis Granderson because they'd become quite familiar with him. Remember, it looked like the Tigers would be the Yanks' first-round playoff opponent, so they had a wealth of scouting material to consult when Granderson went on the trading block.)

Sherman also confirms what had been reported by several other outlets, that Dave Dombrowski was looking for players who either hadn't accumulated much major league service time (and a few seasons away from eligibility for salary arbitration) or were ready to play in the majors. (No three-to-four-year waits for prospects, thank you very much.)

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:51:04 -0000

by Keith Birmingham - AP

Another day, another picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while making your pitch to Gatorade.

It's been roughly 24 hours since we were told the Brewers were "very close" to a deal with Randy Wolf, but said deal has yet to materialize. Both Tom H. and Buster Olney are saying the Brewers are expecting a response today, now that Arn Tellem has had a day to shop the offer around, but reportedly hasn't found anyone willing to match it. Other notes on Wolf:

Tom H. says he "gets the feeling that the Brewers are suprised that Randy Wolf hasn't accepted their three-year offer yet."
Jayson Stark heard that the Brewers' offer to Wolf was bigger than the three year, $28 million deal the Braves recently gave Tim Hudson.
Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mets don't appear likely to land Wolf, and while MLB Trade Rumors lists them as showing interest in five other pitchers, Heyman says the price of mid-level pitching might drive them to spend a little more in pursuit of John Lackey.
The Junkball Blues has a look at the average return teams get on three year contracts to starting pitchers. There are some good ones (Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett), but also some disasters (Adam Eaton, Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano).
Jorge Says No! wonders about the wisdom of offering Wolf a third year, but says the Brewers' willingness to do it implies they don't think they can sign Prince Fielder to a long term deal.

By the way, over two months ago Jorge Says No! predicted Wolf would get three years, $31 million on the open market. Impressive.

I feel the need to clarify my position on the Wolf rumor a bit, because I feel I was a little hard on the front office in this one act play last night. I still don't think Wolf wants to play in Milwaukee, which is why Arn Tellem has spent the last 24 hours searching for anyone on a coast willing to match the Brewers' offer. With that said, I'll give credit where credit is due to the front office for finding the guy they wanted and being aggressive in an attempt to get him here. If it turns out that the scenario I laid out is true and Tellem was just using the Brewers to raise the price for someone else, so be it. At least we're talking about the Brewers making an effort, and not hearing the reasons why they can't.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are close to a deal to bring Claudio Vargas back for another season, and are just waiting for formal acceptance from Vargas and his agent (FanShot). Conversation on the deal is probably complicated a bit by the fact that Vargas is currently in the Dominican Republic pitching in winter ball.

They're also expecting an answer sometime today from Craig Counsell, who may or may not be seeking a two year deal for next season. It sounds like Counsell and his agent spent the day yesterday checking out other options. Don't be surprised if a deal gets done relatively quickly.

Ken Macha told reporters yesterday that Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are the only pitchers guaranteed a spot in the Brewer rotation next season, implying that Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will have to compete to earn an opportunity (FanShot). Open competition should be good for all involved, especially if the Crew manages to bring in some high-upside pitchers to compete.

Tom H. has all of those notes (and a terrible headline) in his roundup piece today, along with this note: The 40 man roster is starting to fill up, so don't be surprised if the Brewers decide not to take a chance on a Rule 5 pick in tomorrow's draft. I think that's a poor decision. Among others, Tim Dillard and Luis Cruz could probably pass through waivers without much notice. Passing on a cheap lottery ticket to protect one of those guys doesn't seem to make sense.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has a look at the speed of several Brewers who recently performed in the Arizona Fall League. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be in about the middle of the pack, while Taylor Green rated out way on the low end. They mustn't have had enough data to publish a ranking for Lorenzo Cain.
Angel Salome will be the next Brewer prospect to head out for winter ball: He's reportedly leaving at the end of the week to play for Este in the Dominican League. You can keep up with him and all the Brewer winter leaguers in our Winter League Updates.

We're continuing the effort to put together a BCB All Decade Team, and if you haven't cast your first votes yet, there's still time. Voting at first base will remain open until 4 pm today, and voting at second base runs until 4 pm tomorrow. Check back later today to vote for a shortstop.

Around baseball:

Braves: Designated outfielder Ryan Church for assignment.
D-Backs: Acquired pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three way deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and outfielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke to the Tigers.
Mets: Signed 1B/3B Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed outfielder Jerry Owens to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Signed Ross Gload to a two year deal.
Pirates: Are expected to sign Bobby Crosby to a one year deal.
Tigers: Signed catcher Robinzon Diaz, who was recently released by the Pirates.
Twins: Designated Boof Bonser for assignment.
White Sox: Signed Mark Teahen to a three year, $14 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Yankees: Will receive the #1 pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft as the PTBNL in the Brian Bruney trade.

Meanwhile, ~~Gritty von Canthitalick~~ Jason Kendall continues to search for work, but there's more suitors than you might think: The Rangers are reportedly strongly considering Kendall, now that Jarrod Saltalamacchia injured his shoulder playing winter ball. The Royals have also expressed interest.

From surprising news to what might possibly be the week's least surprising news: John Lackey is having a hard time finding a team willing to offer him a six year deal.

Actually, this might be the most surprising news: Kudos to the BBWAA for their decision to allow Sean Forman of Baseball Reference to join their organization.

We could have used this days ago, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a guide to deciphering sources in Winter Meeting rumors. Again today, the meetings provide us with some things you might never have known without the internet, and wouldn't have missed:

Michael Tucker, who hasn't played in the majors since 2006, is in Indianapolis and wants to play next season.
Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson heard about a trade offer the Diamondbacks made for him and was offended by it.
C. Trent Rosecrans gave the Meetings' Best Hat Award to Manny Acta.
Blue Jays beat reporter Jordan Bastian gives us a look at the hotel lobby, complete with Christmas tree.
Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com had to step away from the meetings for a moment to help his mom figure out the TV.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The 29 year old Panama native would spend the last nine years of his career as a Brewer, hitting .277/.345/.461, leading the AL with 41 home runs in 1980, and appearing in three All Star games.

Happy birthday today to:

Doc Medich, who made the final ten starts of his major league career for the 1982 Brewers, and turns 61.
Ed Romero, who spent parts of eight seasons as a Brewer in the late 70's and 80's and later served as a minor league infield coordinator and manager. He turns 52.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some snowblowing to do.

Drink up.

More thoughts on Granderson

Ed Valentine — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

No doubt by now you have probably devoured just about everything you can find about the New York Yankees acquisition of Curtis Granderson from Detroit via a three-team trade. Well, when it comes to trades you can never get enough opinions, so here is a little more.

I thought I would start by getting thoughts from the writers here at PA, so below are a variety of opinions from us -- and from some other sources.

Here is my take.

Initially, I thought the Yankees were nuts to give up so much for Granderson. I said as much Tuesday morning. In retrospect, I was hasty. I really don't think the Yankees are giving up that much at all.

Jackson could someday be what Granderson is now. But, I doubt it. He doesn't hit with any power, and I think it's hard to project him as a 20+ home run player in the big leagues. It's just as likely that Jackson will be Ricky Ledee, or not as good as Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. We'll see.

Kennedy? Nothing more than pitching depth. He will never be a front-line guy. Coke? He's an average lefty, not really difficult to replace.

As for Granderson himself, I know all about the lefty/right splits. I don't care. He's a good player with a perfect Yankee Stadium swing, and he is younger and more cost-effective than Johnny Damon. If Damon comes back to the Yankees now, he will come back at a reduced rate.

So, all in all, from purely a Yankee perspective, I have no problem with this move. And if it saves them money and resources to go chase Roy Halladay, all the better.

From '3460Kuri.'

If Curtis Granderson was a free agent, he would probably rank #2 behind Matt Holliday on the list of best available position players. Admittedly, comparing him to Holliday or Jason Bay is comparing apples to oranges, but Granderson has been worth 14.4 WARP over the past three seasons, compared to 18.7 for Holliday and 6.5 for Bay. And let's not forget that he's signed for about half of Bay's price tag and a third of Holliday's pipe dream/asking price.

For the Yankees, it now frees up the Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner combo for fourth outfielder duty, or trade bait, either of which makes sense. Neither hits well enough to start in any outfield position but center, but would make for a useful bench player.

It's hard to say how good Austin Jackson might become, but even if everything breaks right it's probably going to be a few years until we know for sure. Jackson's real value at the moment is that he's probably ready for a major league job but doesn't make much; money being a non-factor for the Yankees, it's a stretch to project anybody to develop into a top-5 center fielder like Granderson. So they've essentially swapped the long-term future for the near-term future. I don't mind it.

I hate to see Kennedy go as well, but it was probably going to take two significant injuries to better pitchers for him to see significant action out of the rotation this year, so perhaps this change of scenery will give him the opportunity to reach the majors, for good, faster.

Overall I think the Yankees came out on top in this deal, and I'm also really not sure what the Diamondbacks were thinking.

From 'Travis', adding to the thoughts he posted last night.

I was surprised, because the Yanks seemed to think very highly of Kennedy and Jackson. But overall, I liked the deal. They got a very good centerfielder (with a reasonable contract) without giving up Joba, Hughes or Montero, and for that, we should be happy.

Jackson was rightfully a highly-touted prospect, but his ceiling essentially is Granderson.

Kennedy has lost a lot of luster in the past couple years, but his minor league stats show a dominant pitcher. If he ever translates that to the majors, he could be a very good starter (especially in the NL West). What we'll miss more in the immediate future is his addition to the bullpen, where I feel he would've been an asset in 2010. But in the long term, it's not a big loss. There are several other pitchers in the minors with higher ceilings (Banuelos, Brackman, Betances, Heredia), and it would've been tough for Kennedy to crack the rotation of an elite team like the Yankees who can sign a CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett in the same off-season.

It's actually hard to get a read on what we'll get from Granderson. He had his worst full season ever in 2009, so are the Yanks getting a declining player or merely 'buying low'? Considering an inordinately low BABIP and a very solid line-drive rate (right in line with his career average) makes me think Cashman is buying low. Throw in Yankee Stadium's 'friendliness' to left-handed hitters, and it makes the trade look even better.

The real question is what position he'll play. Unless he plays a markedly better centerfield than Melky/Gardner in spring training, I believe he should be the leftfielder. His defensive stats from the last couple years have been average at best, while Melky and Gardner have been solidly above average. Another question is whether he'll play against lefty pitchers. Melky has better career numbers against lefties, so will Granderson ride the bench on those days?

From 'jscape.'

All things considered, I dislike the deal. Austin Jackson and IPK represented two of our biggest trade chips; to deal them both and bring back only a position player in return seems like selling low to me, especially because the position player has questionable platoon splits.

Here's my take on it, giving as much credit to Cash and crew as possible:
Just like Cashman overspent on starting pitch last season because he saw the lack of options in the '09 offseason, Cash has looked at next offseason and he sees what its strengths and weaknesses will be. The top players who could be on the market include Mauer, Crawford, Beckett, Halladay, Webb, Lee, plus Jeter and Rivera. No centerfielders in the batch, and cost controlling now could leave more flexibility later.

The folks at SB Nation HQ, or SBNation.com, think the Yankees are the clear winners in this trade. Oh, and they think the Diamondbacks got hosed!

What does Damon think of the deal, since it might have knocked him out of New York? He still thinks he could be a Yankee in 2010.

"I think there’s still a window for me to come back," Damon said. "I don’t know why certain people say certain things about me. The bottom line is, I’ve been one of the best players in the league for a long time, and I’ve shown it the past couple of years. I think early on last season my defense was a little bit erratic, but once I figured out the ballpark and figured a few things out, I got better and I actually was a positive for us. That’s the thing I kind of don’t understand. I think our coaches liked the way I play defense. I know that I can do a lot of cool things."

Damon has to know, though, that the window is now a lot smaller. And it will put a lot less greenbacks in his bank account.

You guys also seem to have a mixed reaction, though the majority who have voted in our poll say they either like it or love it. If you haven't voted yet, be sure you do.

Other opinions

ESPN's Keith Law wonders what Arizona was thinking.
SI.com's Tom Verducci says the Yankees are not only rich, but extraordinarily smart, as well.
Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp is sad to see Granderson leave Detroit.

Evening Prowl: Granderson-Jackson Trade Reactions, Views on Scherzer, and Other Minor Deals Made Today

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Curtis Granderson looks ahead to a future in pinstripes, after being traded to the New York Yankees in a three-team deal on Tuesday.

Browse more photos »

As we did yesterday, let's do a little recap of Tuesday at the Winter Meetings thus far, if for no other reason than to catch some breath after the big three-team trade involving Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson. (Maybe you heard about it?)

The deal's still not official, pending physical exams. (Jason Beck mentioned that Granderson hadn't heard from the Tigers as of this afternoon, and hasn't heard from them in a while, which may have been an indication of their plans.) But that's apparently the only hurdle left to clear.

There's plenty to sort through, which I'm sure we'll be doing - both as a blog and community - in days, weeks, and months to come. I know there's already been a lot of that today at BYB, as this deal is viewed from several different standpoints and through a range of emotions.

As a baseball writer, I think the Tigers made a good trade and am excited about the pitching they've received in return. Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth should be fun to watch over the next few years. As a fan, I'm disappointed to see a popular, homegrown player like Granderson off to another team. And I really came to enjoy watching Jackson pitch this season.

For tonight, however, I'll leave the emotional reactions to The Detroit Tigers Weblog and Mack Avenue Tigers. Detroit4Lyfe rounded up a lot of the post-trade response thus far. Here's more from today:

Ken Rosenthal says the Diamondbacks viewed Scherzer as a reliever, not a starter, which is why he was on the trade block. His mechanics also raise some eyebrows among scouts.

That lines up with what D-Backs beat reporter Nick Piecoro wrote early this morning, after trade discussions had stalled. Lack of a consistent third pitch, an inability to pitch deep into ballgames, and - again - those mechanics were all causes for concern.

(Hat tip to Mike McClary)

Fangraphs' Dave Cameron believes the Yankees are the winner in this deal, as they're getting the best player in Granderson. But he thinks the trade "makes some sense" for the Tigers.

ESPN's Keith Law, however, thinks Detroit came out on top here, getting two power arms and a full-time, lower-cost centerfielder. Law especially likes Schlereth out of the Tigers' bullpen, and sees Jim Leyland handling him well. (Insider)

If you'd like to learn more about Austin Jackson, the centerfielder coming to Detroit in return for Granderson, check out this NY Times profile of him. Tyler Kepner writes about Jackson's lack of power, basketball skills that almost led him to Georgia Tech (and comparisons to Chauncey Billups), and his status as a top prospect in the Yankees' organization.

(Thanks to granderson28 - who might have to change that screen name - for posting that in comments.)

In a FanPost, Boney thinks Tigers fans will eventually learn to like this trade.

Long-time Tigers minor leaguer Mike Hessman signed with the Mets today. The agreement is a minor league deal, with a payout if Hessman chooses to play in Japan (the amount depends on when he goes). Hessman didn't get a call up to Detroit this year, batting .217/.324/.442 with 23 homers and 77 RBIs in 131 games with Triple-A Toledo.

Detroit also picked up a minor league catcher this afternoon, signing Robinzon Diaz. Diaz played with the Pirates this year, splitting time between the Triple-A and major league clubs. The Tigers were reportedly interested in Diaz before the trade deadline.