SB Nation - Atlanta Braves

Braves' Soriano Accepts Arbitration

gondeee — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:55:40 -0000

The Atlanta Braves off-season just got a bit more interesting. Reliever Rafael Soriano has decided to accept arbitration and remain with the Braves for 2010, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Through arbitration, the Braves will likely end up paying Soriano anywhere from $6.5 to $8 million for next season. With $10 million plus already committed to Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, it is likely that the Braves will explore ways to trade Soriano -- something they would need his approval for from now until the middle of June.

With Soriano likely relegated to a setup role in the early innings, he and his agent may be inclined to ask for a trade. In fact this could have been the strategy all along -- to take the guaranteed money and let the Braves do the leg work in finding another team that needs his services.

Fitting his salary into the bullpen certainly seems outside of the budget of the Braves, so if they cannot trade him something else will have to give. This could affect who they tender contracts to next month, as someone like Kelly Johnson may no longer be affordable. They could also choose to trade both Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to free up salary space, attempting to land a cheaper starting pitching option in return for one.

Soriano also risks being cut in spring training and his salary not being guaranteed. There are some fancy baseball rules behind that (which I'm sure we'll learn in the coming days), but surely he and his agent gave that some thought.

Of course, if the Braves keep Soriano and are able to fit him into their payroll, then the Braves suddenly have the best bullpen in baseball -- a nice commodity for a manager who loves to use his bullpen.

The biggest impact here is how this move will affect the other moves the Braves may be planning. The next couple of days will be interesting, to see if Atlanta makes any trades to free up salary. The Braves other free agent who was offered arbitration, Mike Gonzalez, has apparently declined arbitration.

More Winter Meeting Headlines

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 01:56:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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The Orioles are making it known that they are interested in free agent reliever Rafael Soriano, in an apparent attempt to lure Soriano into free agency. Soriano is still considering accepting arbitration from the Braves.
The Cardinals were working on a deal with Brad Penny, and apparently agreed to a one year deal worth 7.5 million dollars.
The Diamondbacks are looking for starting pitching help and have their eyes on Tigers pitcher Edwin Jackson, free agent Justin Duchscherer, among others.
Carl Pavano will accept arbitration from the Twins, his agent confirms.
The Pirates are interested in free agent shortstop Bobby Crosby, according to Ken Rosenthal.
One AL source said the Yankees are looking at cheaper free agent options but still keeping tabs on premier pitchers like Roy Halladay. The source says Rich Harden and Kelvim Escobar are guys they are both watching.

Looking Back: Todd Zeile

Alex Nelson — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:03:42 -0000

After looking at Robin Ventura and Kevin Appier—two guys who, with a little better luck during their careers, might be solid Hall of Fame candidates—we'll next turn our attention to the guys I can't even pretend are realistic Hall candidates, starting with Todd Zeile.

Of all the Mets teams during my lifetime, the 1999 Mets were my favorite. With an infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Robin Ventura, and Rey Ordonez, and Mike Piazza behind the plate, those Mets were a rare offensive-minded team in Flushing. After the season, I was crushed when the Mets failed to sign Olerud to the three-year contract he wanted—Steve Phillips sort of gave up when Olerud expressed his desire to go home to Seattle. Instead, Phillips turned to veteran third baseman Todd Zeile to fill in the gap at first, signing him to a three-year, $18-million contract.

I thought it was a huge mistake at first, one that the Mets, competing with a dominant team like the Braves, might not recover from. Take a look at these WAR totals:

Year	Olerud	Zeile
1997	5.2	2.2
1998	8.1	2.7
1999	5.3	1.4

Those are not comparable players, folks. Then, when you consider that Zeile was shifting from third to first, was three years older than Olerud, and signed essentially the same contract, it really didn't look like a very smart move to me. And it wasn't, because Olerud was still the better player, both in 2000 and going forward.

But you know what? It really didn't cost the Mets anything in 2000. Almost the same team from 1999 returned in 2000—the notable differences were no Johnny O. at first base and Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel were swapped for Mike Hampton—and despite some players letting down the team (Darryl Hamilton, Rickey Henderson, Ventura), the Mets made it to the World Series anyway. Olerud had something of a down year, hitting .285/.392/.439. Meanwhile, Zeile hit pretty well, producing a .268/.356/.467 line with 22 homers, 36 doubles, and 79 RBI in a lineup that otherwise struggled.

And the biggest surprise, to me at least, was how good a defender at first base Zeile was. He was pretty brutal at third, but he was a mobile first baseman with more polish than I expected from the guy who committed more errors in the 1990's than anyone. Total Zone has him at +12 for the 2000 season, which is actually a couple runs more than Olerud was worth with the glove. Olerud was still the better player, overall, but Zeile didn't represent enough of a drop-off to really cost the Mets anything, at least not in 2000.

2001 was another matter, unfortunately, when Zeile was pretty much done—his power vanished, although his on-base ability remained—and the Mets were forced to trade him for Jeromy Burnitz's bad contract in a three-team deal with the Brewers and Rockies. In the long run, Zeile was an error; however, the move was made with the short-term in mind first and foremost, and in the short-term it was close enough to a success for me.

The Mets, of course, brought him back for his final big-league season and even let the veteran return to his original position for a couple games: catcher. There was more than a little desperation involved, but it was also at Zeile's request. Manager Art Howe also took him out early in his final game, so that his final plate appearance could be a homerun.

Player	Career	Top 3	Top 5	Per 162
Todd Zeile	15.1	7.2	8.6	1.13

Nowhere near a Hall of Famer, but he did play well enough to enjoy a long career. Back in 2001, Bill James ranked him 81st among all third basemen, writing "A Brooks Robinson clone as a hitter, but more of a Larry Parrish at third base." Sounds about right.

Braves' Kelly Johnson in High Demand

gondeee — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:46:09 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson is apparently a coveted commodity this off-season.

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The Winter Meetings are most definitely under way. We've already had our first crazy rumor that lasted less than half a day before another team acquired the player in question. Bobby Cox held a press conference at 2pm today, and despite my hopes they did not show it on-line on the MLB channel. Luckily Bill Shanks is there and knows the value of live-tweeting such an event. Among his updates this one stands out:

Cox: clubs knocking on the door for Kelly Johnson

Bobby doesn't usually give up much in the way of trade or free agent info, so for him to say that must mean that regardless of what he says there's still tons of value on KJ. Suddenly the Braves have a ton of tradeable pieces. Here are some other highlights from Shanks' tweeting of the Cox presser:

Cox: we'll give Heywatd a chance

Cox: Braves not in on Bay

Cox: Wags the closer "no matter what"

Cox: Martin Prado could play anywhere

Some of that is very Bobby Coxian, in that it's just simple praise of his players, like the quotes about Martin Prado and Jason Heyward. Of course Billy Wagner will be the closer, he's the veteran and is a much better closer than Soriano or Saito. The price for Jason Bay seems to be going upwards quickly, so I can see why the Braves took themselves out of the running for him early on.

It was mentioned earlier, but until Rafael Soriano makes his decision, the Braves probably won't make any moves. So while there will still be rumors today, don't expect any moves. Soriano's agents arrived this morning and are expected to meet with all interested parties before conferring with Rafael about whether or not to accept arbitration. My guess is that they will receive enough interest to recommend he reject arbitration.

MLB Trade Rumors: Alfonso Soriano to the Braves for Derek Lowe?

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:00:16 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

4 months ago: Chicago Cubs' Alfonso Soriano launches a grand slam off Houston Astros relief pitcher Chris Sampson during the 13th inning of a baseball game Monday, July 27, 2009, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Everyone knows that the Braves are looking to deal one of their excess starting pitchers, starting with Derek Lowe. We all know they will deal either Lowe or Javier Vazquez. How about dealing one bad contract for another? Alfonso Soriano to play left field for Derek Lowe?

The Cubs have been rumored to deal Milton Bradley to the Rays for Pat Burrell, but where would Burrell play? He can only play LF or maybe 1B, but the Cubs have Derrek Lee at 1B. It would make sense for the Braves as they need a power bat in their lineup, and they aren''t going to get alot if they deal Lowe, so why not take on another bad contract in Soriano.

Soriano will make $18 million in each of the next 5 years through 2014, while Lowe will make $15 million in 2010-2012. If the Cubs eat some of Soriano's contract, or throw in a prospect or two, it might even out the deal.

The Cubs would use Lowe to replace free agent starting pitcher Rich Harden, and team him up with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells in the Cubs rotation.

Does this deal make sense for both teams?

Poll

Who would hang up first in a proposed deal of Alfonso Soriano for Derek Lowe?

Rumor: Yankees Bruney to the Braves?

gondeee — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:42:01 -0000

Perhaps we can file this under "first official crazy winter meetings rumor of the day." Here is the interesting rumor in question, regarding our bullpen no less:

According to a team that talked to the Yankees about acquiring Brian Bruney, the right-handed reliever could be headed to Atlanta.

"We asked about him but hear he is going to the Braves," the source said.

Because the Yankees asked for prospects from the first team, they likely are looking for the same thing from Atlanta. Bruney, who made $1.25 million last year, is eligible for arbitration.

Say whaaat? I mean, I like Brian Bruney... some... but we seem to be fetishizeing on our bullpen a bit too much. Perhaps this was one of our backup plans before we acquired Saito last week. Or perhaps we really want another million$+ arm in the bullpen.

Here are Bruney's stats from last year:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Bruney	5-0	44	0	0	0	0	1	39.0	36	17	17	6	23	36	3.92	1.51

[UPDATE: 11:00AM]

The other side of this Bruney rumor, is that it could be a part of a greater Derek Lowe deal. Here is ESPN's Buster Olney on the general rumblings of the meetings this morning:

Last week, we saw quick movement in 3B market. Today, a lot of talk from agents and teams that starting pitcher market is intensifying.

If you're talking about the starting pitching market, you almost have to be talking about the Braves, who clearly have a starter they need to deal.

[UPDATE: 12:57PM]

According to the New York Posts Joel Sherman, the Yanks have traded Bruney to the Nationals. So much for that rumor which had him headed to Atlanta. That seemed far-fetched from the beginning.

More Sources Say Soriano Likely to Accept Arbitration from Braves

gondeee — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 03:40:25 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

Atlanta Braves' closer Rafael Soriano's future is up in the air.

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I guess the Atlanta Braves should be flattered that Rafael Soriano wants to remain in a Braves uniform, but with the recent signings of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, the Braves seem to be saying they would rather Soriano not return. Atlanta has presumably spent all of its allocated budget on the bullpen, so Soriano's presence, if he were to accept arbitration, would likely not last long, as the Braves would be inclined to trade him rather than pay him.

SI.com's Jon Heyman is reporting that Soriano is leaning towards accepting arbitration. This flies in the face of what he reported earlier in the week, that Soriano would certainly reject arbitration. Since then we've had different reporters referencing different sources about what Soriano's decision will be. By the way, he has until midnight Monday night to decide.

All this begs the question, why would Soriano accept arbitration? Is it purely because he thinks he can make more money in one season? The most he would get by accepting arbitration is around $8 million, but in the free agent market he could likely get close to that per year for three to four years -- ensuring much more guaranteed money. Furthermore, Soriano must know that the Braves may not be able to afford to keep him and will trade him. With the ability to more closely control what team he ends up with through free agency, why would he give away that control by accepting arbitration and allowing the Braves to trade him wherever they please?

Accepting arbitration just doesn't make any sense. This is why I have a hard time believing some of this hype. It feels like a technique that his agent is using to stir up more interest in his client, or to get his client signed sooner rather than later, though I don't see him signing with another team tomorrow (but you never know).

Ken Rosenthal is supposed to have something on Soriano shortly, so we'll see if his info is any clearer about our reliever's course of action.

[UPDATE: 12/7 @ 11am]

Something I just learned about the Braves flexibility to trade Soriano were he to accept arbitration, under MLB rules Soriano could not be traded until June 1 without his permission. This certainly would complicate things, unless Soriano is simply looking for an arbitration pay day and doesn't care where he ends up. Mark Bowman and others have also mentioned that the Braves could release him in spring training because his contract is non-guaranteed, but that scenario makes my head hurt, as the Braves would have to to show just cause in doing so.

Orioles interested in Kevin Gregg?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 23:19:35 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

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INDIANAPOLIS - The Orioles are interested in free agent closer Kevin Gregg, who pitched under Orioles pitching coach Rick Kranitz in Florida. Gregg struggled mightily in Chicago, posting a 4.72 ERA in 72 games.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kevin Gregg	5-6	72	0	0	0	23	7	68.2	60	38	36	13	30	71	4.72	1.31

The Orioles are in need of a veteran late inning reliever, and Gregg - with a career 4.10 ERA - would be a low cost option who could help stabilize their bullpen.

The Orioles are also looking to add a starter and potentially a corner infielder. In terms of a starting pitcher, one NL source said the Orioles could look into trading for veteran Derek Lowe, but the Braves would have to take on the majority of his salary so there may not be a match.

Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo of the Reds could also be options as well.

For a corner infielder, the Orioles aren't looking for anything long-term. With Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder a year or so away from playing everyday in Baltimore, a one-year stop gap like Troy Glaus or Pedro Feliz could improve the middle of their order.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:58:22 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

The Atlanta Braves began the revamping of their bullpen for 2010 with the signing of veteran closer Billy Wagner.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 6th:

In the Press...

Without too much surprise, the Braves offered arbitration to both relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, while declining to offer arbitration to Adam LaRoche and Garrett Anderson.
Only a day after the arbitration decisions on both Soriano and Gonzalez, the Braves moved quickly to secure their closer for 2010 by signing Billy Wagner to a one-year contract with a vesting option.
Talking Chop was one of the first sources for Billy Wagner press conference notes and pics.
Before we could fully digest the Wagner signing, the Braves signed a setup man and capable closer in his own right, Takashi Saito to a one year contract.
Once again, Talking Chop was one of the first sources for Saito press conference notes and pics.
There was some hubbub earlier in the week about whether or not Soriano would accept or reject arbitration, with several national reporters having differing info. That impending decision on Soriano's part was apparently still up in the air late in the week.
Freddie Freeman ranked as the 7th-best prospect in the AFL.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll experienced some static, but remained unchanged.
Fan House did a good job of reviewing some Braves prospects.
I once again made the argument for Dale Murphy for Hall of Fame!
Talking Chop got some exclusive notes on a Sirius XM interview with Frank Wren.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

Sid Bream's Moustache passed along the news of Chip Cara parting ways with TBS.
The Keith Lockhart Era linked to a good Frank Wren interview.
PWHjort tried to get all technical on Derek Lowe's numbers. He came to a similar conclusion that I came to in my season review... that Lowe wasn't really that bad.
Zeus12888 shared with us his conclusions from a project he conducted in statistics class about the effects of sacrifice bunting. It's good stuff, and well put together... well worth a read.

Should be a fun week this week with the Winter Meetings getting under way in Indy.

The Weekend Mug, now with more Australians! And another Canadian!

NoahJ — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:12:07 -0000

After trading J.J. Hardy, Doug Melvin realized he had to win back the hearts of Wisconsin women everywhere. Enter Oeltjen.

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Some things to read while on a social networking site far, far away.

So far this is my second week doing the weekend post. My first weekend was immediately after the Carlos Gomez trade, and this weekend comes after the Brewers announce signing Gregg Zaun. It's my turn again the weekend following Christmas, so maybe Brewers fans can be expecting a Christmas present from Doug Melvin and the gang.

About the Zaun signing:

Adam McCalvy tells us that Zaun was assured the starting catching spot. Zaun has played more than 110 games only once in his career and more than 100 games four times, and he's not getting any younger. There should be plenty of opportunities for whoever the backup catcher should be.
Right Field Bleachers thinks that backup will be either Mike Rivera or George Kottaras, with the idea being another year of minor league polishing for Angel Salome and Jonathon Lucroy.
In Between Hops likens Zaun to a cheaper Jason Kendall. Neither is very good at hitting (some would claim they are atrocious), but over the last three years, Zaun has been Kendalls slight superior in OBP and has been significantly better slugging. Zaun did this in close to half of the plate appearances of Kendall.
I think that View From Bernie's Chalet is more excited about the end of the Jason Kendall era than for the signing of Zaun.
Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turning Up the Heat! finds the signing to be strange and suggests that Milwaukee had enough readily available options. Personally, I prefer having someone like Zaun around. I don't think that Rivera would be a viable option to start the whole season, and the other options (Kottaras, Lucroy and Salome) are all younger and could really struggle, particularly Lucroy who would be skipping triple-A. I think that I would like Lucroy to either back up Zaun for the first couple months of the season (like I said, there should be plenty of opportunities) or for him to be called up sometime in June provided he isn't massively struggling in Nashville. Gradually working in what appears to be the heir apparent to the Catchers position seems like a much better idea than throwing him straight into the fire.
And the Grand National Championships thinks this is the most logical move in the history of sports.
Oh, and if I ever met Gregg Zaun, he does not look like a guy I would want to piss off.

Also from the Grand National Championships, they believe that re-signing Craig Counsell--who Doug Melvin has made an offer to--would be a bad idea and suggests signing someone like Esteban German instead. If we were to go with someone else, I think that going with someone in house (like Adam Heether) would be just as good as signing someone from outside the organization. I also think that a player like Craig Counsell is a boon to any team, though, and would serve as a very very good mentor to Alcides Escobar.

The Brewers also signed former Diamondback and full-time Australian Trent ~~Durrington~~ Oltjean...whichever. Brew City Sports tried to reach him for comment, but unfortunately, Oltjean was too busy doing Australian type activities. Oltjean is expected to provide protection for Ryan Braun in the cuteness batting order after the departure of J.J. Hardy.

For those hoping that the Brewers decide to pursue Brad Penny, the bad news is that he rejected a one year offer to stay with the GIants. So it looks like any team that wants to sign him would either have to offer multiple years or a pretty significant--and guarenteed--amount of money for one year.

In Between Hops reminds us again of the comparison that can be made between Casey McGehee and Bill Hall.

Around the Majors:
Atlanta Braves: Rafael Soriano is considering accepting their offer of arbitration.
Chicago Cubs: Could announce a signing of Mike Cameron as soon as Monday.
Houston Astros: Signed former Giant Ryan Sadowski
Kansas City Royals: Signed Cuban lefty Noel Arguelles
Minnesota Twins: Signed 16 year old Dominican Shortstop Miguel Sano.
Seattle Mariners and Jack Z: Signed Chone Figgins to a $36MM, 4 year deal.

If you were disappointed when they announced they were shutting down production, good news! A movie adaptation of Moneyball is going to be back underway!

Oh, and potentially the most exciting news of the day, Metsblog cites Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus as saying that there will be two big announcements at the winter meetings that will be way bigger than "any player signing or news made during". I don't have any idea what it could be, so feel free to speculate.