SB Nation - Baltimore Orioles

Tuesday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:00:41 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Felix Pie, aka Mr. Adorable. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Orioles News

Atkins on the way
Garrett Atkins should be taking his physical in Baltimore today, which means he'll officially be an O by this evening. Try to contain your excitement. -Stacey

Orioles taking steps in the right direction
USA Today has nice things to say about the Orioles. It's good to hear but consider me skeptical of a writer who says, "Kevin Millwood isn't going to win another ERA title like he did in 2005 with the Indians, but he will give the O's a genuine No. 1 starter to battle the rest of the aces in the division." -Stacey

Trading Places
Per ACTA sports, the Orioles are the fifth best trading team of the 20th century. Check out Roch's post for the five best and five worst O's trades of the 20th century. -Stacey

Hot Stove Action

Ryota Igarashi to the Mets
The Mets signed the Japanese reliever to a 2 year, $3M contract. Igarashi hopes to be Frankie Rodriguez's setup man. -Stacey

Nats agree to two-year deal with Jason Marquis
The Nats signed Marquis for two years, $15M. So...good for them? I don't know. It's the Nats. -Stacey

Darren Oliver close to signing with Texas
The deal is for 1 year, $3.5M with an option for 2011. -Stacey

Indians Acquire Mitch Talbot; Sign Saul Rivera
The Indians received Mitch Talbot from the Rays for Kelly Shoppach and signed Saul Rivera to a minor league deal. -Stacey

Pitching options dwindling for Mets | MLB.com: News
Woe are the Mets! Nobody wants to play for them other than the deluded Japanese guy who thinks they're good. I'm sorry but the Mets crack me up. -Stacey

Yanks hit with $25.7M luxury tax
The Yankees are the only team to have to pay the luxury tax this year. The tax, combined with their payroll, means that the Yankees paid $245.7M for their World Series winning team in 2009, which is over $100M than the next closest team. -Stacey

I never thought it was such a bad little Open Thread. It's not bad at all, really. Maybe it just needs a little love.

Mythbusters: Would the O's be Contenders in the AL Central?

Stacey — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:42:46 -0000

You hear it from time to time here on Camden Chat as well as various other outlets: the Orioles are victims of their division. If only they could spend some time in AL Central they'd be contenders. If not contenders, they'd at least be able to tally enough wins to avoid being an embarrassment. It actually just came up a few days ago in one of our daily open threads. I don't think anyone says it as an excuse for the team the Orioles have been for the past decade-plus. Rather it's a way to vent frustration at the idea that it'll be tougher to build a contender in the AL East than anywhere else in the league. That may be the case, but WOULD the Orioles be competitive in the AL Central? Would they have any more success? There's no way to accurately determine exactly how they'd do in the AL Central; there are just too many variables. But there are few ways to get a ballpark idea.

The simplest way to make a comparison seems to be taking the winning percentage the Orioles had against each division and swapping the number of games played between the AL East and Central. I know the teams and number of games played in the AL West and interleague would also be modified slightly, but this is just for fun, and while math_geek might disagree, too much math just takes the fun out of things. And before the sample size police come after me, I also know that just 37 games against a division doesn't necessarily indicate how they'd do in almost twice as many games.

Anyway, if the Orioles were in the AL Central in 2009, it'd look like this:

Division - Winning %	2009 AL East Orioles	Bizarro AL Central O's
vs. AL East - .333	24-48	12-25
vs. AL Central - .459	17-20	33-39
vs. AL West - .342	12-23	12-23
vs. Interleague - .611	11-7	11-7
Record	64-98	68-94

Hm. Well that's not very encouraging. Here are the Orioles hypothetical records with the same formula applied to the Orioles in each year from 2001-2008 (2001 is the first year of unbalanced scheduling).

	Actual O's record	Bizarro AL Central O's record
2008	68-93	76-85
2007	69-93	68-94
2006	70-92	74-88
2005	74-88	69-93
2004	78-84	82-80
2003	71-91	72-90
2002	67-95	77-85
2001	63-98	67-94
Totals	560-734 (.433)	585-709 (.452)

Yep, still pretty embarrassing. Just a 25 game difference over 9 years. And that doesn't even factor into this fantasyland that one of the AL Central teams would probably have to go over the AL East. Otherwise there would be a 6 team AL Central and a 4 team AL East. So if in this exercise you swap the two worst teams and send the Royals over to the AL East (sorry, KC!), you'd have to take out their portion of the overall AL Central record. I won't redo the math, but from 2001-2009 the Orioles are 65-46 (.708) against KC. Yikes.

Another common complaint, and one that I agree with whole heartedly, is the unbalanced schedule. It makes no sense to me. I don't even get the argument for it. Well, I don't know what the argument for it is but if I heard it I'm sure I wouldn't get it. The baseball season is 162 games long, there is plenty of time to play each team an equal amount. It's not football where there are only 16 games. I'm of course under no delusion that a balanced schedule would have put the Orioles in the playoffs or anything, but still. I personally think the MLB is so desperate to pimp the Red Sox vs the Yankees that it's the entire reason for going unbalanced.

(by the way, if you're interested in the guts of the math, here's my worksheet, including what a balanced schedule might look like)

I don't think anyone would argue that it's easier to compete in the AL Central than the AL East, but the Orioles can't use that as any sort of excuse because they are just straight up awful. I think the team with the most legitimate complaint regarding the division in this decade is the Toronto Blue Jays. In the past 10 years the Blue Jays have won at least 80 games 7 times and have only finished above third place once. I'm willing to bet this sort of exercise with that team would show very different results as they've had teams with talent in the recent past. The O's have no such excuse.

Monday Bird Droppings: Post Snow Edition

Stacey — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:50:38 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Jolly Old Saint Nick 'kakis.(AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Not much O's news today, I'd expect it'll stay that way pretty much until the end of the year with Christmas and New Years right around the corner. Did everyone on the east coast enjoy their snowy weekend? I for one am annoyed that my work told me I have to go in today. Jerks. It was a good Sunday, though, other than the shoveling. The Ravens won, Miami, Denver, and the Jets lost. If only the Steelers hadn't pulled it out at the last second it would have been the perfect football day, don't you think? Although anyone who watched that last drive had to admit it was very exciting. Anyway, to baseball:

Brad Komminsk reviews Bowie's pitching
He talks about Arrieta, Bascom, Erbe, Steve Johnson, Lebron, Patton, Perrault, Tanaka, and Chad Thall. -Stacey

Two-minute drill - EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA
This doesn't have to do with baseball, but this dude called the Buffalo Bills "a laughingstock, the Baltimore Orioles of the AFC East." Nice. -Stacey

A's close to deal to acquire Crisp - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
The A's and Coco Crisp have agreed on a one year deal with an option for 2011. Yes, this is considered news on a slow day like today. -Stacey

Saber-Slanted Last Minute Xmas Gifts - Beyond the Box Score
BtB offers some Christmas ideas for the baseball fan in your life. -Stacey

Six Baseball Books Worthy of Christmas Wrapping Paper - DRaysBay
DRaysBay offers some books for the baseball fan in your life. -Stacey

Edit (10:39 a.m.): This was posted on ESPN insider about an hour ago. I hope it will put all of the Adrian Gonzalez talk to bed:

Once the Red Sox landed free agent John Lackey last week, the rumor mill quickly had Boston looking into a deal for Adrian Gonzalez in which Clay Buchholz would be sent to San Diego.

There might be other teams able to put a package together for the star first baseman. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Baltimore Orioles could be players at some point since "they were in on Mark Teixeira last offseason and have the prospects to make it happen."

One executive cautioned that the Padres would ask for Matt Wieters or Brian Matusz, which would be too high a price for the O's.

Keep dreaming, Padres!

Only one thing in the world could've dragged me away from the soft glow of electric sex gleaming in the Open Thread.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap: Lowe, Gonzalez, Vazquez, and more

gondeee — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:06:42 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Former Atlanta Braves' closer Mike Gonzalez took his services to the Baltimore Orioles, along with the Braves' hopes for a first round draft pick in 2010.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 20th:

In the Press...

The Braves officially released their spring training schedule.
With John Lackey signing, that officially opened the door for the Derek Lowe rumors to get hot and heavy.
For his part, Derek Lowe is unhappy about the Braves rumored intention to trade him, and he may have talked his way out of the Braves' favor.
Mike Gonzalez signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Orioles, and the Braves lose any hope of getting a first round pick in 2010's draft.
The Hardball Times released their version of the Braves top-10 prospects.
There was some minor buzz about the Braves adding minor league slugger Mitch Jones.
The Angels were rumored to be interested in Javier Vazquez, but Talking Chop debunked that rumor, and then Mark Bowman officially debunked it.
The Braves signed utility infielder Joe Thurston to a minor league contract.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence dropped for the second straight week.
We released the Talking Chop Community Top-25 Braves Prospects.
I said that the Braves draft pick situation is not that bad, despite the team missing out on any first round picks next year.
Anyone need some last minute gift ideas for the baseball fan.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

ATLandUNC passed along a story about Chipper Jones being the 7th-best player of the decade.
cbwilk shared some of his pictures of former Braves players.
bbxxj ran down the Braves salary situation.
unite8 took the salary situation a step further by suggesting a course that the Braves should take this off-season.
secondbass passed along the information for the Rome Hot Stove gathering in January.

Sunday Bird Droppings

Stacey — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 12:00:28 -0000

by Jeff Roberson - AP

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Spring Training Matt Wieters (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

View full size photo »

MacPhail satisfied for now | orioles.com: News
Andy MacPhail likely made his biggest splashes of the offseason over the last couple of weeks, when he traded for Kevin Millwood, signed Mike Gonzalez to a two-year deal and reached agreement on a one-year pact with Garrett Atkins. Now he rests. - zknower

Andy MacPhail talks about Billy Rowell
I almost wish Billy Rowell would just get traded to another organization so that I can stop hearing about him. -Stacey

For Orioles, all the right moves just aren't all that exciting
Peter Schmuck says things, most of which annoy me. -Stacey

Guts' spot in the rotation
Roch Kubatko ponders the order of the rotation, speculating Millwood will be the #1 and Guthrie the #2. My opinion? Put them in whatever order you want, Matusz will be the ace of the rotation by the all star break. -Stacey

Red Sox 3B Lowell to have thumb surgery
The rumored trade between the Rangers and Red Sox has been halted with the news that Mike Lowell needs surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The Red Sox just can't get rid of this guy. -Stacey

Reds give 3B Scott Rolen 2-year extension
Scott Rolen signed a 2 year, $13M contract extension with the Reds. Funny move for a team trying to dump payroll. -Stacey

Camden Chat HoF Vote
Last chance to submit your ballot for the CC HoF vote. The results will be released in the first week of January. -Stacey

Hey! I tell you what I'm gonna give you, Snakes. I'm gonna give you to the count of 10 to get your ugly, yellow, no-good keister off my property before I pump your Open Thread full of lead! One, two, ten!

Saturday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 12:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Mike Gonzalez (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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SNOW!!! SNOW!! OMG SNOW!! TURN ON THE LOCAL NEWS AND SEE ALL THE PANIC!!!

Hot Stove Around the League: The Cubs are sending that pesky Milton Bradley to the Mariners for Carlos Silva, Nick Johnson is going to the Yankees on a one year deal, the Nationals aren't interested in Johnny Damon because they want good defense (I'm sure Johnny is crushed), and n ot many teams want Miguel Tejada as a SS so he may have to be willing to move to third.

Orioles get great value in Mike Gonzalez
The Hardball Times thinks the O's got good value for their new closer. silverstadium posted this as a fanshot but people never look there so here it is again. -Stacey

Garrett Atkins to the Orioles | FanGraphs Baseball
FanGraphs evaluates the Garrett Atkins signing. Verdict? "Baltimore isn’t paying excessively for Atkins, and he won’t be blocking any prospects who might be ready for 2011. Way to bridge a gap, Mr. MacPhail." -Stacey

Did The Orioles Reach On Garrett Atkins? - Beyond the Box Score
BtB is of a slightly different opinion than FanGraphs on Mr. Atkins. -Stacey

MASN star search continues
No word on who will replace Buck Martinez, but rumored names of interest are Mike Flanagan, Billy Ripken, Brady Anderson, and Ken Singleton. Brady Anderson? Has he ever done that sort of thing before? -Stacey

Erbe gets a clean bill of health
Brandon Erbe's sprained pinky is healed and he's ready to get going on winter workouts. He hopes to start 2010 at AAA. I love a local kid, don't you? -Stacey

Mike Gonzalez was officially announced on Friday and had his first press conference. Subsequently, MASNsports.com was a veritable Gonzopalooza: Gonzalez Meets the Press, Meet the Newest Oriole, More Gonzo, and Trembley Chimes In. Requisite feel good quote from your newest Oriole:

Looking at the lineup, seeing the core, these guys are not just young, but very talented guys. You look at the defense. I've got a great middle defense up in the front, the middle infield and the outfield. As a pitcher, that's what you want, that's what you look for. It seemed like a good fit for me.

They're exciting, they're young, they're very talented. And it's going to be a pleasure to work with these guys and be a part of it.

Oh the weather outside is frightful,
But the fire is so delightful
And since we've no place to go
Open Thread! Open Thread! Open Thread!

On the Gonzalez signing: What is the real value of a 2nd round draft pick?

Stacey — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:59:30 -0000

When the Orioles signed Type-A free agent Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12M contract on Wednesday, one of the major concerns of many was the loss of the Orioles 2nd round draft pick in 2010. My first inclination was to agree, but after thinking about it for awhile I realized I had no idea the actual value of a second round draft pick. What is the likelihood of a 2nd round draft pick not only reaching the majors but having a significant impact? How does a team leverage that against the value they can get from the free agent, in this case "just" a relief pitcher (albeit one with a very good track record)?

To find some answers, I did what I usually do: I went to Baseball Reference. Using their draft section, I looked at every 2nd round draft pick from 1985 to 2001. I'd planned on using 20 years of data but frankly, once I got to 17 it seemed that I had enough (read: I was tired of looking at it).

From 1985 to 2001 there were 506 second round draft picks. Of those, 262 (51.78%) never saw a day in the MLB. Of the remaining 244, 14 didn't sign but were re-drafted in the future and eventually made it to the MLB. That leaves 230 (45.45%) of the draftees who signed and eventually had an appearance in the MLB.

45% is a decent chance, but that includes players who possibly spent just 1 day on a big league team. When all players who played less than 100 games are removed, the total drops to just 22.92%, 49 pitchers and 67 position players. The list includes a few great players (Randy Johnson) and a number of solid players (Carlos Beltran), but also plenty of the Freddie Bynum variety.

So at what point is the trade-off worth it? Is it ever worth it for a relief pitcher? And if the Orioles aren't intended to compete in 2010, does it even matter? The argument could be made that a 2nd round draft pick with even just a 23% chance of making 100 major league appearances is more beneficial to the future of this team than a reliever who might be gone after 2011.

I'm not sure I buy that, though. If 2011 is indeed the year that the Orioles are supposed to make their big move into the pennant race, winning in 2010 is important as well. It's important for the young players who are developing, it's important when trying to land free agents, it's important to show the players that 2010 isn't another year to roll over. Opponents of this thought process will counter with the fact that adding Gonzalez might get the Orioles a few wins, but that's it. And what good will that do?

I think it all comes down to philosophy. The Gonzalez signing and the Millwood trade are, to me, a sign of a different Andy MacPhail. With phase one over, this is how he is tackling phase two. He decided that the benefits of Mike Gonzalez outweigh the potential of next year's 2nd round draft pick. And given the numbers, I can see his point.

Players drafted in the 2nd round, 1985-2001, with at least 100 games played

Player	Years Played	Total Games	Career OPS+	Player	Years Played	Total Games	Career ERA+
Tim Jones (INF)	1988-1993	252	68	Bruce Ruffin	1986-1997	469	98
Kirt Manwaring (C)	1987-1999	1008	69	Mike Schooler	1988-1992	260	136
Milt Cuyler (OF)	1990-1996, 1998	490	71	Randy Johnson	1988-2009	618	136
Dave Hansen (SS)	1990-2005	1230	99	Dave Otto	1987-1994	109	80
Todd Zeile (C/3B)	1989-2004	2158	103	Kevin Wickander	1989-1996	150	108
Todd Hundley (C)	1990-2003	1225	102	Roger Pavlik	1992-1998	131	103
Terry Shumpert (2B)	1990-2003	854	80	Erik Hanson	1988-1998	245	105
Albert Belle (OF)	1989-2000	1539	143	Kevin Tapani	1989-2001	139	99
Derek Bell (OF)	1991-2001	1210	99	Jeff Tabaka	1994-1998, 2001	130	96
Jeff Branson (SS)	1992-1998, 2000-2001	694	77	Dave Burba	1990-2004	511	99
Bob Hamelin (1B)	1993-1998	497	109	Richie Lewis	1992-1998	217	93
Dave Silvestri (SS)	1992-1999	181	65	Jeremy Hernandez	1991-1995	133	114
Scott Livingstone (3B)	1991-1998	673	86	Eric Grunderson	1990-92, 94-00	254	93
Brian Hunter (OF)	1994-2003	1000	72	Pete Schourek	1991-2001	288	91
Clay Belllinger (SS)	1999-2002	183	57	Arthur Rhodes	1991-2009	780	107
Andy Fox (3B)	1996-2004	776	73	Joe Slusarski	1991-93, 95, 99-01	118	81
Darrell Whitmore (OF)	1993-1995	112	44	Chris Nabholz	1990-1995	141	97
Jayhawk Owens (C)	1993-1996	130	73	Joe Grahe	1990-1995, 1999	187	100
Aaron Ledesma (SS)	1995, 1997-2000	283	81	Frank Rodriguez	1995-2001	184	88
Tim Hyers (1B)	1994-1996, 2000	133	55	Bob Wickman	1992-2007	835	125
Kevin Stocker (SS)	1994-1996, 1999-2004	846	79	Chris Haney	1991-2002	196	108
Herb Perry (3B)	1994-1996, 1999-2004	529	96	Bill Pulsipher	1995, 98-01, 05	106	63
Terrell Lowery (OF)	1997-2000	123	99	Mike Matthews	2000-2005	230	92
Bobby Hughes (C)	1998-1999	133	75	Jon Lieber	1994-2008	401	103
Jason Giambi (1B)	1995-2009	1952	143	Tim Crabtree	1995-2001	342	116
Brian Banks (C)	1996-1998, 2002-2003	273	83	Jeff Suppan	1995-2009	412	98
Scott Rolen (3B)	1996-2009	1748	124	Jay Witasick	1996-2007	405	97
Chris Singelton (OF)	1999-2003, 2005	704	87	Scott Sullivan	1995-2004	558	113
Greg Norton (3B)	1996-2009	1107	93	Bryan Rekar	1995-2002	131	87
Brad Fullmer (3B)	1997-2004	807	111	Jarrod Washburn	1998-2009	312	109
Mike Darr (OF)	1999-2001	188	93	Brett Tomko	1997-2009	389	92
George Lombard (OF)	1998-00, 2002-03, 06	144	68	Buddy Carlyle	1999-00, 05, 07-09	104	76
Mark Bellhorn (SS)	1997-2007	731	92	Randy Wolf	1999-2009	279	103
Ben Petrick (C)	1999-2003	240	88	Scott Linebrink	2000-2009	491	122
Marlon Anderson (2B)	1998-2009	1151	83	Tyler Walker	2002, 2004-09	262	101
Craig Wilson (C)	2001-2007	698	113	Chad Harville	1999, 01, 03-06	175	85
Carlos Beltran (OF)	1998-2009	1562	119	Aaron Cook	2002-2009	197	111
Sean Casey (1B)	1997-2008	1405	109	Matt Belisle	2003, 2005-2009	156	89
Henry Mateo (SS)	2001-2006	190	50	Gary Majewski	2004-2008	229	93
Jacque Jones (OF)	1999-2008	1302	98	John Lackey	2002-2009	234	117
Milton Bradley (OF)	2000-2009	941	115	Jack Taschner	2005-2009	202	88
Mike Caruso (SS)	1998-1999, 2002	281	66	Brian Tallet	2002-03, 2005-09	189	102
Brent Abernathy (SS)	2001-2003, 2005	232	67	Joel Hanrahan	2007-2009	148	89
Jimmy Rollins (SS)	2000-2009	1406	97	Manny Delcarmen	2005-2009	241	125
Josh Paul (OF)	1999-2007	321	68	Chad Qualls	2004-2009	241	125
Michael Restovich (OF)	2002-2007	152	79	Andrew Sisco	2005-2007	151	88
Rick Ankiel (OF)	1999-01, 2002, 07-09	342	98	Brandon League	2004-2009	168	108
Jason Grabowski (C)	2002-2005	190	62	Neal Cotts	2003-2009	284	100
Gerald Laird (C)	2003-2009	509	75	Danny Haren	2003-2009	196	123
Adam Dunn (OF)	2001-2009	1290	132
Brandon Inge (C)	2001-2009	1153	84
Jody Gerut (OF)	2003-2005, 2008-2009	542	105
Chris Magruder (OF)	2001-2005	270	66
Carl Crawford (OF)	2002-2009	1081	103
Rob Bowen (C)	2003-2004, 2006-2008	216	71
Brandon Phillips (2B)	2002-2009	736	90
Ryan Doumit (C)	2005-2009	410	104
Ryan Ludwick (OF)	2002-2009	515	117
Ben Broussard (1B)	2002-2008	705	105
Bobby Hill (2B)	2002-2005	249	83
Xavier Nady (OF)	2000, 2003-2009	679	108
Freddie Bynum (SS)	2005-2008	188	68
Lance Niekro (3B)	2003, 2005-2007	194	81
Kelly Shoppach (C)	2005-2009	571	95
J.J. Hardy (SS)	2005-2009	571	95
Dallas McPherson (3B)	2004-2006, 2008	128	102

Friday Bird Droppings

duck — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:00:52 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Brian Roberts (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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Gonzalez ready to fight for closing job
Mike Gonzalez expects to be the Orioles' full-time closer in 2010, but he's taking the same approach he has had his entire career. He's prepared to fight for it. -duck

After flurry, Orioles likely to wait awhile
On Thursday, a team official shot down a report that the Orioles are pursuing St. Louis Cardinals slugger Matt Holliday, who the club believes would be too costly to acquire, and denied that they have made a significant effort to trade for San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. -duck

Holliday Intrigue: Orioles in, and a "mystery team" arrives
The connections between the Orioles and Holliday go from his friendship with Roberts, to Baltimore’s recent signing of Holliday’s former teammate Garrett Atkins to even, as Zrebiec points out, pitching coach Rick Kranitz past life as an Oklahoma State coach and his ongoing friendship with Holliday’s father, Tom. The real connection driving this story however is this: The Orioles had reason to talk to Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, in the past few days as they finalized the deal with reliever Mike Gonzalez. -duck

Mets, Angels, Braves, Giants, Mariners still have moves to make - Jon Heyman
More proof that Jon Heyman is not good at his job. Sure, we're biased towards the Orioles, but no mention of the team's moves at all while focusing on the Mets' pursuit of Matt Holliday. Every other media outlet is reporting the O's are in the mix, but to Heyman? We don't exist. And Adam Jones was one of the biggest busts in baseball his rookie year. Don't forget that gem, too. -duck

Look back at Bowie in 2009
Today we continue our look back at O's minor league teams from the 2009 season with a feature on Double-A Bowie of the Eastern League with comments from Baysox manager Brad Komminsk. -duck

O's on Deck: Orioles making all the right gambles
How do the Orioles reverse the slide of 12 consecutive losing seasons? Obviously, the answer isn't simple or the Orioles wouldn't be facing the question. However, the team is doing what it needs to do in order to win in the always competitive American League East. With their moves so far this offseason -- trading for Kevin Millwood and agreeing to deals with Garrett Atkins and Mike Gonzalez -- the Orioles are addressing their weaknesses heading into 2010. -duck

Garrett Atkins and Mike Gonzalez: A closer look
Snapshot looks at each player. -duck

Mets Sign Igarashi, a Reliever, in 2-Year Deal
The Mets agreed Thursday with the Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi on a two-year, $3 million contract. The Mets want Igarashi to be the eighth-inning setup man for the All-Star closer Francisco Rodriguez. -duck

Trade to Mariners leaves Lee in ‘shock'
Cliff Lee thought he was staying in Philadelphia — for the rest of his career. -duck

Grandma got run over by a Open Thread
Walking home from our house Christmas Eve.
You can say there's no such thing as Santa,
But as for me and Grandpa, we believe.

Did The Orioles Reach On Garrett Atkins?

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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In addition to Mike Gonzalez, the Orioles have reportedly inked corner infielder, Garrett Atkins, to a one-year deal believed to be in the neighborhood of $4 million dollars. Andy MacPhail is easily one of my favorite GM's after Andrew Freidman, but in a market that has multiple cheaper alternatives, I question the signing of Atkins at $4 million dollars.

It's no secret that Atkins's numbers have declined in each of the last four seasons. It's also not a secret The Rockies have been trying to ship him out of Colorado for quite some time before finally non-tendering him last weekend. After posting a career high wOBA of .410 in 2006, Atkins bottomed out last season and finished with a .291 wOBA. Accompanying that wOBA dip, is a dip in ISO. Once again, after a career high in 2006 of .228, Atkins' ISO was a dismal .116 in 2009. It's true, his HR/FB rate was down around three percent from his normal 10%, but for a player that just recently turned 30, a rapidly declining ISO is not a good sign.

His 2009 BABIP shows there is some regression due for Atkins, but that wouldn't explain all of the power outage. It might produce some more doubles, but hard to see it justifying the major collapse. The good news is Atkins does show a decent batting eye. He will collect a walk nearly 10% of the time while keeping the strikeouts around 15%. Defensively, he is on a rare upward UZR swing for a player headed into his thirties, but a sample size warning; he has played less than 1,000 innings in the field each of the last two seasons.

Much like the Gonzalez deal, the Orioles aren't taking a big risk here; however, is this move really necessary? We know Joshua Bell isn't ready, but I don't see the reason to pay Atkins $4 million dollars to be the stop gap; especially in this market. The going rate on a win in this early market seems to be around $3-3.5 million. Nick Johnson, a likely 2-win player, is about to sign a one-year deal worth around $6 million. For five or six potential wins, the Orioles have spent at least $19 million dollars on Atkins, Gonzalez and Kevin Millwood. That is not much over the market's current rate, still given their likely standing in the division, I don't see the need to pay sticker price in what is shaping up as a buyer's market.

If the Orioles really wanted a corner infielder who could impact them winning the pennant in 2010, this guy is a free agent and can be had for less than $4 million.

Attempting To Understand The Orioles Signing of Mike Gonzalez

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:14:33 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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Being a fan of the Rays, I'm used to Yankees and Red Sox being the top competitors in the division. Yet, the Baltimore Orioles are quietly becoming a team that is starting to scare me. Maybe not in the 2010 season, but come 2011 there could be a serious battle from first to fifth in the AL East.

The Orioles have a deal in place to acquire the services of Mike Gonzalez to become their closer. The deal is reportedly for two years and $12 million dollars with incentives that could push it to $16 million. Despite his type-A status, the Orioles first round pick is protected meaning they'll lose a second-round pick for him. While I'm some what confused by the signing, I don't think it is a bad deal.

I do like Mike Gonzalez, although the price tag still might be a bit high. Despite owning some above average seasons, Gonzalez has never crossed the $6 million WAR dollar value. His career high of 1.7 WAR occurred in 2004, and that was many pitches (and DL stints) ago. As is the case with a lot of pitchers, especially ones with injury histories, health is the key.

Between the years 2007-2008, Gonzalez pitched a combined 50.2 innings. He came back strong in 2009 to throw in a career-high 80 games, and racked up a career-high 74.1 innings (way to ease back those relievers Bobby!). His velocity was back to normal, and he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. There isn't much fluke in his 2009 3.51 FIP; the mark falls just marginally lower than his 3.74 tRA and 3.70 xFIP. Talent isn't the question, but how will he respond to such a heavy work load the following year? Personally, I watched Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell seemingly run out of gas at the end of 2009 because of heavier than usual loads in 2008.

I don't follow the O's close enough to know exactly what the plan looks like. From the outside looking in, it seems they are trying hard to field a decent team in 2010, and an even better one in 2011. A few days ago, Dave Cameron talked about the marginal value of a win. For a team on the cusp of a playoff birth, slightly overpaying a Mike Gonzalez type is worth the risk if the potential reward is the difference between win number 93 and number 94. I think we can agree that Baltimore is not at that level. This is why I'm not sure the Orioles necessarily needed to make this kind of move right now.