SB Nation - Houston Astros

Let's Talk Lindstrom, The Newest Astro

davoag — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:29:23 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

This is your newest Astros closer, Matt Lindstrom. Make him feel welcome.

Okay, I know you've heard about the trade that sent Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for right-handed starter Robert Bono, shortstop Luis Bryan and a player to be named later. It's not exactly the deal you were looking for after Houston lost both Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins in the past three days. Both of those guys are considerable upgrades over Lindstrom. Let me try and make you feel a little better about this trade.

For starters, let's look at his contract. Lindstrom will be under club control for another three seasons. Granted, those are three seasons of arbitration, but they shouldn't have to spend more than 15 million at the most over those three seasons. He'll probably get 2 million in arbitration for next year.

If anything, this makes Lindstrom more attractive than anyone else on the trade market. Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Now, there's the little problem of Lindstrom's performance. He wasn't very good last season. At all. There is a great breakdown of Lindstrom's season performance here. Yes, he was unlucky, but he also didn't strand enough runners. His performance suggests he'll be a good closer, but probably not great. Over a full season, his Bill James projections show him with 26 saves, three losses and a 44/25 K/BB ratio. Not the best projection in the world, but it's workable.

What about this possibility? Chai-jen Lo starts the season as a late-inning reliever, pairing with Fulchino until he's used to pitching in high level situations in the majors. Then, if Lindstrom is struggling, they slot Lo into the closer's role and move Lindstrom into the eighth inning. Both Arias and Fulchino are also possibilities here, but Lo probably has the biggest upside of the three.

The other thing to consider is which prospects the Astros gave up to get Lindstrom:

Robert Bono, RHP — Bono is a 20-year old who was drafted out of high school as a catcher. He converted to pitching and has had a nice little career to this point. He's a nice prospect but isn't exciting. He does seem to have excellent control, but there is no evidence he's a hard thrower or can strike out enough people to be successful at higher levels. Remember, the South Atlantic League favored pitchers more than a little last season. Out of the five starters at Lexington (Lyles, Seaton, Dydalewicz, Greenwalt, Bono), he probably had the fourth-best upside. Plus, the Astros like righty David Duncan, who will probably slot into Bono's rotation spot at Corpus Christi.

Luis Bryan, SS — The 19-year old middle infielder made quite a few of Farmstros weekly best lists last season. He has one glaring hole in that he doesn't walk, at all. In 283 career plate appearances, Bryan walked 11 times and none last season with the GCL Astros. He is exactly the kind of player the Astros should be trading away for a guy like Lindstrom.

I completely agree with Baseball America's Ben Badler that neither of these guys could have been in the Astros Top 30 prospects next season. Since the PTBNL is actually the Astros top selection in the Rule V draft, this is a very easy trade to make and probably one of the reasons it came together so quickly.

There, did it work? Do you feel a little better about this deal? Well, good, that's what The Crawfish Boxes is here for. Just know that I don't like this any more than you do (especially since Wade apparently wants to trade for ANOTHER closer). I'm just putting on a brave face and soldiering on like a good fan. How about we pick out Lindstrom's entrance music? Wouldn't that be fun?

Astros close to Lindstrom deal...maybe...well...you know how it goes

DyingQuail — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:00:59 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

It looks like this man will be closing out our games in 2010. I just hope we don't give up too much.

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[UPDATE] Gammons is reporting that Lindstrom is flying to Houston for a physical with team doctors. Still no word on the players involved in the trade. (h/t) OremLK.

So the news has been spotty all day with this Lindstrom deal. There's absolutely no word on who the prospects would be. There's no word on if it would just Lindstrom from the Marlins. There's just knowledge that the Astros are trying to acquire Matt Lindstrom from the Florida Marlins.

One minute I read this from Ken Rosenthal:

Astros close on Lindstrom. Swapping medicals.

So that makes one think, I guess we'll know exactly what's happening in just a few minutes. But then McTaggart had this just a few minutes later from Wade:

"We may be back you guys with something by the end of the night. We hope so."

Then Footer got this from Wade a few minutes after that:

"We need someone who's closed games before. I think we'll accomplish that. We'll have somebody back there..."

Lindstrom certainly has the experience, but are we really in a position to trade prospects for Lindstrom? I'm not sure what the Marlins would ask for, but I also don't think we have anyone we can even part with that won't cause us to flinch in agony when we read the name.

Now McTaggart is stating the following (I guess we'll know soon):

Lindstrom tells MLB.com Astros and Marlins exchanging medical records

Astros Winter Meeting, Day Three: Links, Thoughts and Idle Speculation

davoag — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:54:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Unless you have this man closing games for you, do you need a big-name closer? And yes, I was referring to Yogi...

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Look, I'm all for conventional wisdom. There is usually a reason it's conventional; it's worked for years and years. It's what people do. In baseball, it's what teams do to win. I don't mock all conventional wisdom in baseball. Some of it is very sound. One thing I can't figure out, however, is why this one fact has become so crucial to a team's offseason goals. Why do the Astros 'need' to find a closer this winter? Just because they lost their closer from last season?

Let's consider last season*. How many teams went into the 2009 season with unsettled or unproven closers? That would be 11. Here's the complete list, followed by some quick thoughts on the situations.

*This isn't the most scientific study, since I'm looking just at teams from 2009 and not expanding the data range past that. I acknowledge that. Let's move past it.

Tampa Bay (84-78) Had Percival ostensibly as closer, but pitched 10 innings in 2009 and was not used as closer much early. Still had six saves, but so did five other members of bullpen.
Toronto (75-87) Knew BJ Ryan would be back at some point, never signed anyone as replacement.
Detroit (86-77) Had a group of a couple players, sorted itself out during the season.
Seattle (85-77) Found David Aardsma off junk pile.
Oakland (75-87) Went with all-kids, Andrew Bailey emerged as closer
Florida (87-75) Went with unproven kid in Matt Lindstrom, moved to Leo Nunez halfway through season.
Washington (59-103) Went with Mike McDougal, had okay season.
St. Louis (91-71) Found Ryan Franklin after going through motions with several others
LA Dodgers (95-67) Broxton saved some games at end of 2008, but still unknown entity going into 2009
San Diego (75-87) Entered season with Heath Bell as closer, no prior experience
Arizona (70-92) Let Brandon Lyon walk,used Qualls as new closer
Atlanta (86-76) Traded for Soriano, but also had Mike Gonzalez

Obviously, there were some teams that were going to be bad no matter what. They'd made the decision to rebuild and thus, didn't invest heavily in a closer. Those teams (Washington, Oakland, San Diego) finished with losing records. The Padres found Heath Bell could be a successful closer and the A's had the same thing happen with Andrew Bailey.

The rest of the teams? 7 of the 11 had winning records. There are numerous examples of teams being killed by not having a late-inning guy. That's the 2008 Mets excuse, anyway (forcing them to spend ungodly amounts of money on JJ Putz and K-Rod). I think, however, that a large majority of teams don't necessarily need to focus on getting a closer as part of their success. Finding good players and putting them in the bullpen will work itself out. Why spend the money on a luxury item when you can win without one?

Maybe this is all rationalization since the Brewers are going to swoop in and sign both LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf in the same day. I really believe that the Astros success in 2010 won't hinge on who pitches the ninth inning. Houston will be an average-to-below average team no matter who the closer is.

Onto the links:

Add the Cardinals to the list of Miguel Tejada suitors. Well, maybe not...it's just that Tony LaRussa likes him. Which he revealed for the sole purpose of driving me crazy. Would St. Louis play Tejada at shortstop or third base?
Could the Tigers end up being Jose Valverde's landing spot? The Granderson/Jackson deal saved them about 10-12 million dollars, depending on how much Jackson gets in arbitration. That puts them in perfect position to pick up a player like Valverde for the back end of the bullpen. It would also give the Astros the 19th pick in the 2010 draft. Apparently, the Nationals had interest but pulled back due to his cost. Did Valverde's agent overestimate his market?
Here's a nice defense of the Pudge Rodriguez signing. While I agree the human aspect of baseball decisions is often minimized by everyone, this seems a bit much. For one, it was widely reported when Pudge joined the Astros that he really doesn't prepare for the mental side of the game very well and is mostly concerned with hitting. Sure, he may provide moral support out there on the mound, but don't look for him to tell Strasberg what kind of pitches this guy doesn't want to see.Aaron Gleeman seems to agree with me, too.
I don't know what's more disturbing; that the White Sox could beat us out for Putz's services (and that that would be considered a bad thing) or that Matt Thornton uses the term 'bromance.' I have nothing more to say.
One of the better Twitter feeds during the Winter Meetings has been Will Carroll's. The Baseball Prospectus writer was profiled by his hometown newspaper and has apparently been one of the stars of the Indianapolis show. As someone who purchased his Carroll Guide to Sports Injuries, just so I could sound smart when I talk about Lis Franc-type injuries, I am very appreciative he's in the business.
Finally, here's a little prospect talk for those minor league nuts in the audience:
Some data on player speeds out of the box in the Arizona Fall League. The guys at Project Prospect only timed Castro twice and he fell into the below-average category, but he may have suffered the same fate as Buster Posey: fatigue. From what I'd heard to that point, Castro should have average speed in the majors.
We were recently contact by a site with some great prospect video (though it is a pay site). One of the profiles is on Henry Villar. Some very good video here with lots of pitches thrown. I didn't see any closeups from the side to tell how his arm mechanics looked, but could see some other things. His delivery is relatively smooth, but the fact he falls off to the first base side so heavily means it might not be as repeatable as you'd like. He's also not in great fielding position when he finishes. His arm slot doesn't look to put too much stress on his delivery and for a hard thrower, he certainly has a free-and-easy motion. Not too many warning signs for injury down the road.
Here's a video of Ross Seaton. I have to say, this was pretty encouraging. While Seaton did struggle with command issues in this particular start, it was a TON of video on his delivery. I can see why scouts would like him; Seaton has a very smooth delivery throughout. He lands in a balanced position, it's not too violent of an arm motion. His arm slot seems comfortable, though he does tend to miss the same slot sometimes. His elbow does not seem to fly forward before the ball and he seems perfectly balanced to field after the play. In fact, the end of his delivery reminds me a little of Greg Maddux. Now, he definitely didn't show Maddux-like control, but if his effortless delivery can really bring 92-93 MPH heat? He's a lot more interesting. Here's my end of the season scouting effort on Seaton, based on his numbers.
There's also video of Jordan Lyles on Baseball Intellect, but I won't bore you any more with prospect talk. At first blush, it's some of the longest video I've seen on prospects and a good source for first-hand scouting reports.

Astros Hot Stove Noise 12/09: Hawkins could be a Brewer? Wade talking trade for Lindstrom? and a hefty surprise, too

DyingQuail — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:02:30 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

This is not who you want to trade for to close out baseball games.

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The winter meeting this year have been phenomenal to follow via Twitter. Unfortunately, the tweeting yesterday was primarily about a lot of non-news—save the Yankees/Tigers/Dbacks blockbuster. Today, for Astros fans, things have heated up on the stove.

The first chunk of news this morning is that the Brewers are having "fast-track" talks with LaTroy Hawkins. Per our discussion about the closer situation yesterday, I'm cool with the Brewcrew over paying for Mr. Hawkins' service. The more I've thought all of our options out, the more I've fallen in love with idea of a Alberto Arias / Mike Gonzalez platoon. Whether any of the news about Hawkins and the Brewers actually means the Brewers will ink Hawkins, or if Hawkins has interest, remains to be seen. I just hope this doesn't mean we're raising our bottom line on Hawkins.

The more surprising bit of news from this morning is that the Astros are apparently in extensive talks with the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom. Yes, Matt Lindstrom of the 4.47FIP/4.65xFIP/5.04tRA in 2009. The same Lindstrom of the non-impressive 2009 and not projected to be too much improved in 2010, either (CHONE and Bill James). Say it ain't so Eddy.

There's no word on who would be involved in this deal, but I don't think anyone here would be too pleased. We're not a team in a position to trade for big-league talent, we're a team in a position to either purchase it on the market, or unload a veteran contract for youth. That's it.

Unfortunately, it looks like Eddy is in the works on a trade. Footer tweeted that Wade's had a lot of discussion about a possible trade. Judging by the rumor mill, this trade sounds like it's either Lindstrom, or Rafael Soriano. Of course, the later is just something more speculative by JJO, who I don't even believe is at the winter meetings, but those are the only two trades that have any legitimate basis tagged to the Astros. JJO's reasoning on the trade is basically that one team has too many closers, one team has too few, and that Ed Wade likes Soriano's agent. This doesn't exactly make a ton of sense. That's not exactly why a trade would get done, seemingly—I hope.

The only way I'd like the Soriano deal, is it involved this ridiculously far fetched rumor about Carlos Lee being a trade candidate for the Braves. I would take Soriano for Lee straight up. It would make my entire life 2009-2010 winter.

Since that's not happening, I will continue to cross my fingers all day and wait for the news that the Astros have inked Mike Gonzalez and that LaTroy Hawkins got over paid by the Brewers.

[UPDATE] It's looks like Ed Wade really might being trying to trade for a closer. He indicates in this McTaggart interview that we have pieces that make sense for a trade. Hopefully Bobby Heck chokes him out before he can pick up his cell phone and tell some other GM "deal."

Braves: Trades First, Then Free Agents

gondeee — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:49:04 -0000

The Braves probably realize that they may have jumped the gun when the signed two free agent relievers in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito last week, before their own free agents made up their mind about whether they wanted to accept salary arbitration. As most of us already know, Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration and threw the Braves plans for the off-season and the winter meetings into disarray.

Instead of GM Frank Wren only having to move one starting pitcher (likely Derek Lowe), he now needs to move a reliever as well. Soriano has asked to be traded and several teams are in the mix, including the Orioles and Angels, and if money were less of an object, the Astros. It's important for more than one team to be in the fray so that the Braves can drive up the price a bit and get a better return, and possibly a useful piece they can plug in to their roster for 2010.

The urgency to move Soriano has led to the Braves putting other free agent options for position players on the back burner, according to Mark Bowman. This is out of a necessity to clear salary space before committing any more money to players for next season.

While Wren continues to say that the Soriano Surprise will not deter the Braves from their off-season plans, it has certainly slowed those plans until the more immediate situation of trading their former closer concludes. With multiple sources saying we should be able to trade Soriano easily and quickly I certainly hope they are correct. One thing going for us here is that the Braves seldom demand more value in return in a trade than the player they're trading is really worth. This is not the Blue Jays trying to deal Roy Halladay. There is a need for Wren to get Soriano, and to an extent Lowe, traded as soon as possible, so that he can focus on the never ending pursuit of hitting.

[UPDATE: 3PM]

Ken Rosenthal says the Tampa Bay Rays and the Astros are the two teams trying to trade for Soriano. Earlier in the afternoon we learned that the Angels and Orioles were out of the running. The Astros may fall out of contention, as they instead may land Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Some thoughts on the Astros' closer situation

DyingQuail — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:59:17 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

I'm going on record as stating I want this man to be the guy we sign as our closer...and then immediately platoon him.

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With yesterday's news that Jose Valerde would be walking away from the Houston Astros—most likely—and the news that LaTroy Hawkins is in Indy this afternoon meeting with the front office, the faint buzz surrounding the Astros is what are they going to do about closing out ballgames in 2010. Now, this would normally be the time I'd bust out a bevy of various projections about each option we have, but there are only two major projection systems that have been released: CHONE and Bill James. That didn't stop me from busting them out, however.

When we get down to brass tacks, what we look for in a closer is someone who will a) create outs and b) minimize the other team's run expectancy. I've tried to capture that in the four options I can see the Astros front office considering as closer-capable. I averaged the two projection systems' projections in an effort to curb overly negative or overly positive trends amidst the skill sets. I know that this isn't the most efficacious methodology, but these are meant to serve more as a launching pad for more nuanced discussion.

Interestingly enough, LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez, and Alberto Arias are equally valued by CHONE's projection system (click here and here). The caveat here is that if you rank them by projected value per projected IP, then list goes Arias (44pIP), Gonzalez (51 pIP), and Hawkins (57pIP). Looking at it all, Alberto Arias becomes my favorite. Strong enough strikeout numbers, and control that will likely improve with age, could result in an extreme-ground ball pitcher who still gets the Ks; the walks are troubling, though, but I think the ground balls minimize them.

Clack threw out an idea earlier today that the Astros sign Gonzalez and platoon he and Arias in the 8th and 9th innings based on match-ups. Upon hearing the news I instantly began to wonder whether Ed Wade was savvy enough to pull of this move. It involves spinning the deal in such away that it doesn't scare off Gonzalez, but not bringing him in under so false a pretense that he shuts down mentally once he realizes his plight.

After trying to think of the appropriate spin, I realized it was just time to bust out some numbers and think of it that way. Based on their splits between LHB and RHB, we'd certainly see some upside from Mike Gonzalez, who is dramatically more effective against lefties (as measured by K:BB). Arais, too, would see a bump in his performance, but the swing isn't as dramatic as Gonzalez's.

I'm not as sure of what Gonzalez is seeking on the open market. But as a former Houstonian, you have imagine he'd take a pay cut, and at age 31, two years wouldn't be a bad call at all. That would be two years of maximizing the production of two key assets, and a relatively cheap price (when you average the two salaries).

In truth, I think that the only chance the Astros have over the next few years is going to be through outside of the box thinking and wonky solutions like this one. The good news is that there appears to be evidence that analysis plays some role in the decision making process for us. Which is good news, considering I thought we might have been one of the two teams who have yet employee anyone who specializes in baseball analysis. Then again, looking at this trade, it appears the Dbacks are probably one of those two.

The New Astros Game Plan

davoag — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:55:18 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Hawk and Puma...the perfect 80's detective show!

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With Jose Valverde's decision to decline arbitration with the Astros, that leaves them with an upper limit of 15 million to spend this offseason. Of course these comments related to Jose de Jesus Ortiz for the Houston Chronicle make it seem like accepting arbitration was never an option:

"Houston had a chance," [Valverde] said. "Another arbitration wasn't for me. If they want to win with young players, that's good. But a team like that has to invest to win. The GM said he wanted me, but if he really wanted me, he would have offered something. He never offered me any type of offer or anything. They had a chance to make an offer, and they never made it. It was always, ‘Well talk tomorrow.' Then when the time ended for the first offer, they said we'd talk later. They never, never made me an offer."

So let me get this straight, the Astros had no intentions of of re-signing Valverde and they offered him arbitration. They wanted Hawkins back, so they didn't offer him arbitration. At what point did arbitration become such a sign of bad faith in negotiations. I thought it was about getting compensation for losing free agents. Silly me.

At any rate, with that 15 million, Houston GM Ed Wade will set out to fill these main positions of need: closer, offense, eighth inning reliever, bench.

What's that mean for the rest of the winter? Look for the Astros to check in on these kinds of players:

LaTroy Hawkins will be re-signed, maybe as early as today, for about 5 million. I'd like it to be a one-year deal, but wouldn't rule out his agent pushing for an additional year. 2009 Cost: 5 million
The Astros will also make a push to bring back Miguel Tejada now. He will provide both offense and another option at third base for new manager Brad Mills. This probably won't happen until January, since Tejada wants a long-term deal. 2009 Cost: 4 million
Look for them to also pursue a guy like JJ Putz or newly-released Boof Bonser as a possible late inning setup man. Putz could come on a relatively cheap, one year deal while Bonser may get signed for less than a million guaranteed with incentive escalators. Bonser missed the 2009 season after tearing his rotator cuff and labrum. Cost: 3 million
That leaves a couple of million to spend on one or two bench guys. One of those will definitely be an infielder that can play multiple positions, but mainly will back up Manzella. They'll probably add another outfielder too. Maybe Ryan Church? Cost: 2 million

We just spent 14 of that 15 million, with some change to spare. A roster with that bullpen, Tejada at third and Church spelling guys like Pence and Lee isn't bad at all, but still won't be a winner. The only way that happens is if the Astros add two starters and that's just no in the cards.

Jose Valverde Rejects Arbitration Offer- Who Closes Now?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:32 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Adios, amigo.

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The Astros and GM Ed Wade were handed a great piece of news on Monday night, as closer Jose Valverde declined arbitration choosing instead to remain a free agent. Valverde made his intent to test the market in free agency known early on, and despite the extension of an arbitration offer from the Astros, Jose has decided to take the plunge and see if he can parlay his strong recent seasons into a big money free agent contract.

Almost certainly this means the end of his tenure as the last man out the Astros 'pen. While he was certainly a positive contributor, he is a luxury that the organization cannot afford. If nothing else, we can remember Jose Valverde's as a rock of consistent, if not spectacular play, a welcome relief from the often turbulent ninths we saw from Brad Lidge. People jump all over Ed Wade and his penchant for bringing in relievers, often over cost, and rightfully so especially with a team lacking in talent like our Astros have been. At least we can say in Valverde's case that the big name reliever was as good as advertised once he got to town.

Now the question that need be answered is who will step into the vacated closer's position? Rafael Soriano, whom the Astros had reported shown interest in, has accepted the Braves' offer of arbitration, while set up man Mike Gonzalez has chosen to take the opposite route in rejecting the Braves' advances. On the Braves' front, the back end of their bullpen will be full of former and current closers, with Soriano joining Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner after the latter two recently joined Atlanta in free agency. I don't know if Braves' GM Frank Wren anticipated that Soriano would decline arbitration, but he will have a large sum of $ invested in three men who will pitch at most 190 innings combined. That's an almost Astro-like utilization of resources. To the point, Gonzalez will be an option for Ed Wade to check in on. A multi year deal would most likely be what it takes to reign in the man with the awesome windup.

Of course, LaTroy Hawkins is an option, but he has been sought after by more than just the Astros. If anything, I would expect Ed Wade to amp up his charge to sign Hawk to a one year contract for 2010. If I had to place a wager, I believe he will be re-signed and given the opportunity to be our closer. Without great strikeout stuff, Hawkins will have to overcome his lack of a killer fastball to get hitters out. Our budget may necessitate this more than anything else.

Kevin Gregg, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are out there, and I hope the Astros do nothing more than kick their tires and pass. J.J. Putz, however, would be an interesting sign, and could probably be had on the cheap after coming off injury and poor performance.

The Astros were given a gift last night. Who knows what can be done with it. A free agent starting pitcher and/or an affordable third base option are more realistic than last week, in terms of ability of the Astros to sign a player or two. In the long term, Bobby Heck has produced a solid draft class from 2009, and if Valverde as expected does not re-sign with the club, two draft choices will come his way. All in all, a good night for the Astros. The next couple days could be even better as a result.

(Former) Astro Valverde Declines Arbitration

davoag — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 05:02:55 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Goodbye, Papa Grande, you will be missed...

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According to Ken Rosenthal, Jose Valverde declined the Astros offer of arbitration, meaning he will cost a first-round draft pick for any team who signs him. Alyson Footer and Brian McTaggart reported at various times during Monday evening that the decision was weighing heavily on his mind and he went back and forth.

Of course, as I detail below, Valverde becomes the best reliever on the market currently and probably will get a multi-year deal. I'm not sure the Astros will retain him now, but this is most likely a good thing long-term for the Astros. Give Bobby Heck another two draft picks to work with and he'll do magic.

In other news:

Rafael Betancourt accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration from the Braves. This is yet another sign that the relief market is not what it appears to be. On the other side of that coin, however, is that Brandon Lyon declined arbitration as did Mike Gonzalez. Lyon wasn't staying in Detroit no matter what, but he and M-Gone form the line behind Valverde.

Mark DeRosa declined arbitration with the Cardinals. That means draft pick compensation for St. Louis if he signs elsewhere, but since they gave up young players to get DeRosa last summer anyhow, this isn't really a win for the Cards.

Jason Bay also declined arbitration. This does nothing for the Astros, but was one of the few noteworthy happenings last night.

***DQ Insert***

With this news, Ed Wade is now free to start working the hotel lobby and find us the following things (this list is per a McTaggart tweet earlier today):

Astros GM ranks team needs in this order: Closer, offense, eighth inning reliever and bench.

After lnewcomer and I both made fun of the list, McTaggart clarified that starting pitching didn't make the list because it's too expensive and I guess also not...necessary?. I guess we can cross that wish off our list. It's going to be a long week, but at least tomorrow is the hottest day of the hot stove season, and we have that to look forward to.

Astros Winter Meeting Links

davoag — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:58:31 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I can save how much on car insurance?

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It's looking like the first part of my theory on the Astros bullpen plans are coming to fruition. Jose Valverde can't find a deal, so his best option is accepting arbitration with the Astros. That probably means his salary will fall somewhere around 9 million. Ken Rosenthal is reporting the possible salary number at 10 million, but from looking at the market, that seems high to me. At the same time, Valverde's salary was 8 million last season, so you can guess where it will end up through this negotiation.

Two points to remember: First, Valverde has until midnight Monday to decide whether to accept arbitration. Certainly, his agent has an idea how the market will shape up to this point. The fact that both Billy Wagner AND Takashi Saito both signed before rumors of Valverde have hit the market. Second, even if Valverde accepts arbitration, it doesn't mean he's locked into an arbiter deciding his 2010 salary. Check out AstroAndy's excellent rundown of the process for a refresher.

I say the first part of my theory looks sound but the second part, bringing Hawkins back, looks less likely. Maybe the Astros could have struck quickly and signed Hawkins to a modest deal a couple of weeks ago. Now, the market seems to be heating up for the soon-to-be 37-year old with the Rockies being the latest team to express interest.

Honestly, I'm less afraid of Valverde returning on a one-year deal than of the Astros working out a multi-year deal for him. Sure, it's probably not the best use of resources to lock up a closer for big money with a limited budget. But, what else were they going to spend money on? Ed Wade has made it clear he's not spending on a starter, that third base is pretty set and that he's happy entering the season with Towles, Q and possibly Castro in the catching mix. Bringing back Valverde will not only give the Astros a more solid bullpen, they won't be able to get a player of his talent on a contract that short. This is better news than it seems.

On to more of the weekend's best links:

This news is either depressing or somewhat hopeful, depending on how you look at it. Mier appears to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Lyles and Castro are both ahead of schedule. No winning records since 2007, though? Is it really important for minor league affiliates to win games? If the system can churn out one to two prospects a season, isn't that what matters most?
My analytical toolbox has been duly updated. Thanks, Dave Cameron.
Recent injuries have sidelined both Wesley Wright and Brian Bogusevic. Both might have an impact on the 25-man roster next season, so maybe it's time to shut them down until February.
Here's Brian McTaggart's take on the Winter Meetings. Not surprising that the Astros won't be movers and shakers. Richard Justice thinks the Astros woes lately are all because of Baylor. Personally, I'd blame that replay official up in Dallas. That game was clearly over. He owes us a TCU-Alabama national championship.
Worried about Roy Oswalt? Apparently, we shouldn't be. His best buddy, JJO, says he's rested and ready to go. He also is happy with his new pitching coach.
It's a bit of a stretch to think Bryce Harper may fall to No. 8, but man, can this kid play? This is one of the coolest videos I've seen in a while. As athletic as he sounds, maybe he switches to third base? A man can dream, can't he?
More distressing news from the NCAA about the draft process. I know there are some who would like to see an international draft, but honestly, do we need to give more power to organizations like this? After the NCAA settled with Andy Oliver, it seemed clear its intent was to move back to the status quo and that's exactly what they are doing.
A very illuminating profile on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. All those GMs saying he's the third- or fourth-best pitcher on the free agent market? They probably thought Kyle Farnsworth was also one of the best. I don't know what it is about a lefty with a fastball that makes scouts lose their minds. Doesn't his utter lack of control worry them just as much?
Boy, this Rangers sale is going to be fun to watch. Plus, there is the added intrigue on whether Nolan is sticking around with the team. Obviously, this worries me more than anything else about that debacle, since I like the idea of Round Rock being the Triple-A affiliate. If they leave, would the Astros bring back the Beaumont Golden Gators?