SB Nation - Houston Astros

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Cecil Cooper from take off to landing

DyingQuail — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:27 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

5 months ago: Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper walks in the dugout during a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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A one-hour plane ride and two torn out pages of the Bill James Handbook, that’s all I have. Perhaps it’s because I’m a grizzled veteran now, but probably because I know that I work best under a deadline (see: 3 AM the ~~night~~ morning before any important paper due in college); whatever the reason for this hare-brained idea, that’s what I’m working with to produce this post.

If you didn’t believe me when I said that I was going to be using the interesting things I’ve stumbled upon in the Bill James Handbook as fodder for 30 or so posts—believe.

Today’s topic: Cecil Cooper’s managerial statistics. The juicy details: after the jump.

James has a couple of pretty useful measures for us to talk about what we got with Coop in 2008 and 2009. Looking over the historical stats for various managers in the book, I noted how it seemed like a lot of these stats were driven by the kinds of teams that the managers could pull the levers with. But here’s the thing, Coop doesn’t really seem to fit that mold at all.

(Since I’m writing this in a bind, I don’t know that I’ll do the greatest job of holding onto my objectivity, but c’est la vie. I’ve now sat through an hour and half of delays and there will always be a part of me that will hold Coop in ire for 2009 being a second half nose-dive. My stasis is not the best for pure, rational objectivity.)

2008: The year that Coop drove us nuts with the running game

The Astros attempted 154 stolen bases, 81 sacrifices, and started the runners moving 112 times. Having loosely observed the various levels of these stats for other managers, this is a pretty high year for wasting outs. The stolen base has a negative run expectancy. A sacrifice obviously uses an out (and let’s be honest, Coop wasn’t using sacrifices in high leverage situations only), and I’ve never read anything on the statistical impact of sending the runners, but I imagine it’s probably not a wonderful statistical move.

Thinking about this team without the aid of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, or any of my statistical sanctuaries, this wasn’t a shrewd move on Coop’s part. Subjectively, let’s think about the bone headed stolen base attempts we saw that year: Ty Wigginton and Carlos Lee on several occasions. There was, of course, the well-publicized "green light" policy and the neglect of telling Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn that simply being fast doesn’t mean you’ll steal with a lot of success.

These numbers don’t capture their effect. They’re just a count of attempts, but just thinking about the number of attempts with the cogs that were cranking the wheels, it’s not hard to say that this wasn’t the finest piece of utility maximization in the history of managing.

2009: The year that Coop, seemingly, destroyed the bull pen

There are only two numbers I need to give you (four really, but get off my back): 116 and 449 (108 and 488). The first number is the number of times that a reliever was used in consecutive days and the second is the total number of relievers used. The non-parenthetical numbers are 2009’s totals and the parenthetical are 2008.

In twelve less games than he had to work with 2008, Coop increased the number of consecutive days, while using nearly forty less relievers. While this probably isn’t the most damning usage of relief pitchers ever, let’s consider who Coop was working with:

Chris Sampson: Coming off an off-season elbow surgery.
Geoff Geary: Coming off an off-season hip surgery.
Doug Brocail: Coming off a season where he’d just been abused in the 8^th inning all year long. And yes, he was over the age of forty in both instances and had a faulty ticker.
Jose Valverde: Coming off his shredded calf muscle in April.
Relief pitcher X: The guy I should have mentioned but have forgotten as I realize I’m running out of time.

Just like with the running game in 2008, this isn’t to say that Coop definitively killed the Astros bullpen because determining that would take a lot more evidence than I have. Both of these brief blurbs are to point out that Coop had bad tendencies as a manager. The usage pattern in 2009 for our relievers was bone-headed. There’s no other way for me to describe it. During all of our discussions of what helped the Astros out pace their Pythag record in 2008, we all came back to our successful late-inning relievers. The second of 2009: we were trying to plug the links as they sprang up; ultimately, our ship sank.

So what’s the overall point of this (besides the challenge of writing all this between takeoff and landing)? To say that these are the small changes in managerial tactics that I think can hopefully give the Astros a better starting point in 2010. Brad Mills, please take note.

Astros' offense at 3d base and shortstop in the 2000's

clack — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:41:58 -0000

Let's look at what kind of offense the Astros have gotten from the left side of the infield in this decade. This idea for this post came to mind after I commented on HLP's article about Tommy Manzella taking over the shortstop position next year, making that position defense-first, like it was in the Adam Everett era. My comment pointed out that Everett generally was accompanied by a stronger offensive performance at 3d base than the Astros received last season. As I cogitated, I realized that the Astros generally have had "either / or" offensive performance from shortstop and 3d base. By that, I mean either the shortstop or 3d baseman is a good offensive player--but not both. That may be by design, or perhaps just the way things turned out.

To examine this tendency, I used Baseball-Reference's OPS+ for the Astros' third base and shortstop positions for each year 2002 - 2009. The stats are based on the offense of all the Astros hitters who played the position. As most of you know, OPS+ is a park adjusted index relative to league wide OPS. !00 is the base, with lessor and higher values reflecting above or below average OPS performance. I also calculate an average for the two positions to get an idea of the combined offense from the two positions.

OPS+
year	3d base	shortstop	average
02	122	91	107
03	110	89	100
04	99	93	96
05	140	77	109
06	101	75	88
07	82	95	89
08	85	105	95
09	76	116	96

Do you detect a pattern here? Generally 3d base was the stronger offensive position until 2007 (when Everett suffered a season end broken flbula), when the Loretta - Bruntlett offense at shortstop was better than third base, where coincidently Ensberg's offense fell off a cliff. With the trade for Tejada, the 2008 and 2009 shortstop position dominated offensively and the 3d base position became the weak offensive position. The combined offense of shortstop and 3d base was decent through 2005, but the positions' combined offensive contribution fell off in 06 and 07. Whatever faults one might see with the Tejada trade, the acquisition was successful in pushing the combined offense of shortstop and 3d base closer to the level which prevailed prior to 2006.

The only season in which the 3d base and shortstop were roughly the same in offense was 2004. Mike Lamb and an injured Morgan Ensberg shared time at 3d base, combining for league average offense. Adam Everett had his best offensive year, with a .706 OPS, but suffered a late season injury, and was replaced by Jose Vizcaino, who had a hot streak.

The best single seasons of combined offense were 2002 and 2005 (when the Astros went to the World Series). The 2002 season featured one of Geoff Blum's best season (OPS of .807) and a decent offensive performance by Julio Lugo (.710 OPS). The 2005 season featured an out-of-this-world offensive performance by Morgan Ensberg (.945 OPS), which more than made up for the first of several sluggish offensive seasons by Adam Everett (OPS of .653). Both of the highest offensive seasons at shortstop were associated with Tejada's two seasons in 08 and 09. Unfortunately, the Blum - Wigginton platoon in 2008 was only a slight improvement over the tumultuous 3d base situation in 2007. The 3d base performance declined further in 2009 when Keppinger replaced Wigginton in the platoon.

If Manzella takes over 3d base in 2010, and the shortstop OPS+ returns to the Everett levels of 05 - 06--perhaps an OPS+ of 75-- then the combined OPS+ is likely to be the worst of the decade for the Astros---unless the Astros retain Tejada at 3d base or acquire another offensive upgrade at 3d base. A return of the Blum - Keppinger platoon would likely put the combined OPS+ at 80 or lower, which would be even worse than the losing season of 2007, which cost manager Phil Garner his job. Although one can hope for a breakthrough season by rookie Chris Johnson, the more likely scenario is that he would produce an OPS+ no higher than the Blum - Keppinger platoon.

In case you are wondering about the photograph for this article, that is Adam Everett of the Detroit Tigers.

With Miguel Tejada most likely on his way out, Tommy Manzella is in as Astros Shortstop in 2010

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Tommy Manzella and Michael Bourn would give the Astros one of the best defensive SS-CF combos in the NL Central

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Straight from Eddy Wade's mouth:

At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop.

The possibility remains that Tejada could return as a third baseman.

Tommy Manzella grades anywhere from good to very good at shortstop. AstroAndy did a fine comparison between Manzella and former Astro Adam Everett a few months ago. Replacing this kind of defense with Manzella's defensive abilities at short would definitely be a boon.

As far as being able to retain Miguel Tejada as a third baseman, I don't know if that would be in the cards. His Bill James projection for 2010 is actually better in terms of runs created per game as compared to 2009. The million dollar-plus question will be if that production is worth spending X amount of dollars more on the veteran Tejada vs. some sort of platoon with Blum/Kepp/C. Johnson.

With Lance Berkman, Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui and Jeff Keppinger already assured of spots on the club in 2010, Ed Wade will have decisions to make on which other infielders to bring in. It seems as if Tommy Manzella will play shorstop, as a trade or free agent signing isn't likely. While Chris Johnson has shown promise, don't look past Jeff Keppinger as a good option to be a starter on this team. He's not going to get David Wright AB's, but he is right at the peak of his career and is looked at as being a solid contributor in 2010. A fairly cheap contract makes him nearly as attractive as Johnson for the cost conscious Astros.

Bottom line, this was the first real indication of what changes we can expect in our 2010 Astros. For those who missed having a superb defensive shortstop, your wish looks like it may be coming true. Tommy Manzella will need time to adjust to major league hitting, but he has shown the ability to approach Everett's level offensively. That may not wow you, but remember that the cost is right with Manzella. Get used to hearing that sort of rationalization from the Astros camp. Keep in mind as well that Gio Mier is drawing rave reviews as the best defensive shortstop from the 2009 draft and his bat has been better than advertised so far as a professional. View Manzella however you want- a defensive savant, a stopgap, Adam Everett, 2.0. He makes the league minimum, and when your team is dominated by three player's salaries, those are the sort of trade offs a team must make.

As for Miguel Tejada, it doesn't appear that he will be back as an Astro, despite the door being left open for his return. He turned in a nice offensive season and as stated earlier is supposed to be even better in 2010. It's probable that another club gives him a shot at third, and does so with a contract whose value is close to eight figures per season. The Astros have three serviceable to slightly above serviceable options at third base, which leaves Tejada as the odd man out in my mind.

AFL Rising Stars Game Rosters

raygu — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:15:11 -0000

The 2009 AFL Rising Stars game rosters are listed below for those of you who get the chance to see some of the best prospects in MLB in one game tonight at 8:15 on the MLB Network. Unfortunately, the Nationals pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg will not be making the start in this one with a "sore neck". What timing. But you will get the chance to see Buster Posey, Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters, Domonic Brown and Tanner Scheppers among others.


2009 AFL Rising Stars rosters
East Division						West Division

Position players

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	ORG	POS.	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	ORG
C	Hank Conger	Mesa	LAA	C	Jason Castro	Saguaros	HOU
C	Buster Posey	Scottsdale	SF	C	Lucas May	Javelinas	LAD
IF	Brandon Allen	Scottsdale	ARI	IF	Yonder Alonso	Saguaros	CIN
IF	Josh Bell	Phoenix	BAL	IF	Zack Cozart	Saguaros	CIN
IF	Starlin Castro	Mesa	CHC	IF	Ike Davis	Surprise	NYM
IF	Chase d'Arnaud	Scottsdale	PIT	IF	Daniel Descalso	Surprise	STL
IF	Matt Dominguez	Mesa	FLA	IF	Carlos Rivero	Saguaros	CLE
IF	Brandon Snyder	Phoenix	BAL	IF	Mike Moustakas	Surprise	KC
IF	Josh Vitters*	Mesa	CHC	IF	Lance Zawadzki	Saguaros	SD
IF	Jemile Weeks	Phoenix	OAK	OF	Dustin Ackley	Javelinas	SEA
OF	Domonic Brown	Scottsdale	PHI	OF	Jordan Danks	Javelinas	CWS
OF	Grant Desme	Phoenix	OAK	OF	Chris Heisey	Saguaros	CIN
OF	Bryan Petersen	Mesa	FLA	OF	Daryl Jones	Javelinas	STL
OF	Jose Tabata	Scottsdale	PIT	OF	Casper Wells	Javelinas	DET
OF	Rene Tosoni	Mesa	MIN
Pitchers

POS.	PLAYER	TEAM	ORG	POS.	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	ORG
RHP	Andrew Cashner*	Mesa	CHC	RHP	Phillippe Aumont	Javelinas	SEA
RHP	Brandon Erbe*	Phoenix	BAL	LHP	Michael Dunn	Surprise	NYY
RHP	Reidier Gonzalez	Phoenix	TOR	RHP	Josh Fields	Javelinas	SEA
RHP	Matt Gorgen	Phoenix	TB	RHP	Javy Guerra	Javelinas	LAD
RHP	Andrew Johnston	Scottsdale	COL	RHP	Danny Gutierrez	Surprise	TEX
RHP	Tommy Mendoza	Mesa	LAA	RHP	Craig Kimbrel	Saguaros	ATL
LHP	Danny Moskos	Scottsdale	PIT	RHP	Mike Leake	Saguaros	CIN
RHP	Toru Murata	Scottsdale	N/A	LHP	Mike Minor	Saguaros	ATL
LHP	Blake Parker	Mesa	CHC	LHP	Andrew Oliver	Javelinas	DET
LHP	Matt Reynolds	Scottsdale	COL	RHP	Mark Rogers	Javelinas	MIL
LHP	Dustin Richardson	Mesa	BOS	RHP	Tanner Scheppers	Surprise	TEX
RHP	Drew Storen	Phoenix	WAS
RHP	Stephen Strasburg*	Phoenix	WAS

Phillies will not re-sign Brett Myers

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:59:48 -0000

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The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that the Phillies have informed pitcher Brett Myers that they will not attempt to re-sign him this offseason.

`I officially won’t be a Phillie next year,’’ the 29-year-old pitcher told The Inquirer this afternoon.

Myers, who has been pretty open about wanting to stay in Philadelphia, will search for a new home.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brett Myers	4-3	18	10	0	0	0	0	70.2	74	38	38	18	23	50	4.84	1.37

The Astros could be an option for the right-handed pitcher, who owns a 4.40 ERA in 8 professional seasons.

Bill James' Projections for Selected Astros' Hitters

clack — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:18:37 -0000

Previously, I wrote about the Bill James Projections for selected Astros' pitchers. Today, I will look at the Bill James projections for selected Astros' hitters. Below, we compare the 2010 projection for OBP, OPS, RC/G with the player's actual stats from 2009. RC/G is "runs created per game," which is based on a Bill James' formula for estimating a player's total offensive contribution. RC/G is an interesting format because it is the theoretical runs per game a team would score if its lineup was composed only of players whose offensive performance is exactly like this player's.

OBP, OPS, RC/G

Michael Bourn

Projection .341, .701, 4.57

2009 .354, .738, 5.6

Hunter Pence

Projection .351, .860, 6.29

2009 .346, .816, 5.1

Carlos Lee

Projection .351, .853, 6.34

2009 .343, .832, 5.7

Lance Berkman

Projection .406, .924, 7.46

2009 .399, .907, 7.2

Miguel Tejada

Projection .342, .791, 5.45

2009 .336, .795, 5.0

Geoff Blum

Projection .297, .657, 3.54

2009 .314, .681, 3.9

Jeff Keppinger

Projection .348, .743, 4.98

2009 .320, .707, 3.7

Chris Johnson

Projection .300, .725, 4.49

2009 .130, .221, 0.00

Kaz Matsui

Projection .317, .696, 4.22

2009 .302, .659, 3.9

Humberto Quintero

Projection .286, .644, 3.4

2009 .286, .662, 3.1

Michael Bourn's performance is predicted to decline significantly, while Hunter Pence's offense is projected to increase sufficiently that he overtakes Carlos Lee. Despite the slight edge that Pence holds over Lee, it is interesting that the projections for Pence and Lee are so similar. Although the decline in Bourn's OPS seems relatively small, from a RC/G perspective, he is projected to sustain a 1 run decline. I think 2010 will be a critical year for Bourn and Pence. Will Bourn show that 2009 set a new level of performance for him or not? Will Pence develop into a legitimate slugger like James predicts? Are you satisfied with these projections of Bourn and Pence?

On the infield, James projects a solid season for Berkman, with a small, but noticeable, increase in offensive performance over 2009. Tejada is projected to post another solid offensive season, with a predicted increase over a notable 2009. Tejada's RC/G is projected to rise almost a 1/2 run. This underscores the offensive "hole" which will be created if Tejada is not re-signed. It would be safe to say that James' projections don't like the Astros' recent re-signing of Blum. Blum' offensive performance is expeccted to decline to rather pathetic levels. Blum's predicted RC/G would be the lowest among starters, except for Quintero. And, speaking of the catcher, James has no projection for Towles, but the prediction for Quintero's offense is abysmal. The James' projections would suggest that Keppinger should get more playing time over Blum. Blum would have to put on a spectacular defensive performance to justify more playing time than Keppinger. Both Keppinger and Matsui are projected to show increased offensive performances next year. Surprisingly, James has an offensive prediction for Chris Johnson, and even more surprisingly, James is somewhat more optimistic about Johnson than most of us on this board (including me). Obviously, James' system believes that Johnson's minor league numbers indicate decent enough power to offset, at least in part, a paltry OBP. I have my doubts on that.

Since we've talked about possible free agent signings at 3d base, I'll conclude with similar (OBP, OPS, RC/G) projections for some of those names.

R. Branyan .336, .826, 5.53

A. Kennedy .332, .705, 4.23

F. Lopez .352, .755, 4.81

J. Crede, .302, .735, 4.33

Thoughts?

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:35 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Gerardo Parra tried to dodge a pounding after a walk-off hit in the 10th inning against the Dodgers on August 15th.

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Not quite as close a poll for the second of the 2009 'Pitties. The B-bullpen of Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada and Leo Rosales swept majestically to a collective victory, for their nine innings of no-hit ball in the marathon against the Padres. The same game is also nominated in this week's category.

One of the good things about baseball having a 162-game schedule is that, even in a disappointing year like the Diamondbacks experienced in 2009, there will still be contests which we remember with great fondness [contrast any 'Game of the Year' poll for the Detroit Lions last season, which I imagine made kinda wretched reading...] Arizona still won 70 games, and included among them were blowouts, squeakers, comebacks, slugfests, pitching duels and marathons.

After the jump, you'll find our selection of the five best games of the 2009 season described in detail - the link goes to the recap of the contest in question.

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

Only twice since 2002 has the team scored a dozen or more and shutout the opposition - oddly, both times were against the Braves. Here, a 12-0 victory was important, not just for the offensive outburst, but because it gave Max Scherzer his first career win, in his fourteenth start. However, it was only late on that it became a sure thing: when he was lifted for a PH in the seventh, after six innings of four-hit ball, it was only 3-0 to Arizona. However, the offense then piled onto the Atlanta bullpen, tagging them fror nine earned runs over the final seven outs, capped by Chris Snyder's grand-slam in the ninth. This was the largest winning margin for the Diamondbacks since 2006.
May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

Arizona had more than their fair share of opposition recoveries inflicted on them in 2009 (44 blown leads in all, ahead only of Washington in the NL), but this was our biggest comeback of the year. We trailed the A's 5-1 going into the eighth, having been stifled by, of all people, former D-back Edgar Gonzalez. However, another ex-Arizonan, veteran Russ Springer, was tagged for three runs without retiring a batter, and we tied things up on a two-run Chad Tracy double. We scored three times in the 11th, but Chad Qualls made it interesting, allowing two runs to score and putting the tying run on third with one out. A ground-ball double-play allowed him and Arizona to escape, 8-7.
June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

I think the fangraph is all we need here, as we blew a 6-0 lead, allowing five runs in the ninth, then traded zeroes with San Diego until the 18th, where Mark Reynolds' three-run shot off a utility infielder won it for the Diamondbacks, five hours and 45 minutes after the first pitch. Madness? This is Petco!
August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

Jonathan Broxton came into the ninth with 25 saves in 29 opportunities, and having allowed just two home runs in his previous 97 innings, going all the way back to June 2008. With a 3-1 lead - Hiroki Kuroda having out-duelled Doug Davis - things looked bleak for the home outfit, especially after Gerardo Parra's K reduced our WP to 5%. However, Mark Reynolds then deposited the first delivery he saw into the bleachers, and three pitches later, Miguel Montero followed suit, tying the game up. Parra then redeemed himself, driving in the winning run with one down in the bottom of the tenth, sealing the Diamondbacks' first series victory over the Dodgers for more than a year.
August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

Seven shutout innings from Jon Garland - not just his best start in a Diamondbacks' jersey, but also his last before getting traded to LA. Mark Reynolds became the first Arizona batter since 2001 to hit forty home-runs in a season. And Justin Upton hit his 21st blast, four days after no longer being 21 himself. On Luis Gonzalez Appreciation Day and in front of the fourth-biggest home crowd of the year to that point, the D-backs rolled to a 9-0 win over the Astros. This was SnakePitFest 2: Clay Zavada pitched a scoreless eighth in front of the mustached ranks of the Zavada Brigade and team president Derrick Hall stopped by to say hello. Yeah, not too bad a day, all told...

Poll

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

Friday AFL Update; Tim Lincecum is your best friend; Giveaways at MMP Oprah-style

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:53:22 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Don't be frustrated, Hunter...it takes time to learn how to fold towels the "right" way. Long ways once, then fold the right side over towards the middle, and the left side over the right side.

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The Arizona Fall League hasn't exactly treated our farm hands all that well, but yesterday was a rare all around success for our boys, despite coming out on the losing end of things.

Jon Gaston, who is becoming the minor league Jack Cust, hit his second longball of the fall season and upped his SLG to a tidy .568. Speaking of Cust, if Gaston became like the A's DH: a low BA/high SLG/high K guy, I would probably be ok with that. Especially considering that Gaston appears willing and able to both play defense and steal the occasional base.

Jose Vallejo collected four hits in five ABs....I won't mention that he has only nine hits total in 39 ABs. Wait. What's that? I just mentioned it? Shit. But hey- what did Pudge Rodriguez do on Thursday? Count his millions? Play with his kids? Shine his Gold Glove Plaques? Maybe. Go 4/5 in a Fall League game? Nope. Advantage: Astros.

For what it's worth Dan Meszaros pitched well in an inning of work. Rejoice, for a run was not allowed.

Chalk this up in the..."now that I think about it, this makes complete sense" column: Tim Lincecum was pulled over on October 30th in his home state of Washington for speeding. Young guy, fast car, happens all the time. There's more: Tiny Timmy had 3.3 grams of marijuana in the center console of his Mercedes. I mean, can you blame him? Dude looks like your best buddy from high school. Difference being that he makes grown men look foolish every fifth day for the SF Giants. On second thought, maybe the Washington State Trooper pulled over this guy instead:

The question isn't what we're going to do, the question is, what aren't we going to do?

Folks, sit down in your chairs for this one. Of all the disheartening news we've posted on here, this may top the list: Oprah is taking her talk show from regular TV to her cable network in 2011. I know there are some of y'all who watch the show, so don't get all huffy because I posted this. It's a sad day when millions of people a day won't be able to comment on the best in girl-power literature, or Oprah's latest falling off the diet-wagon.

Brainstorm: what is Oprah most famous for? No, not The Color Purple. Not her friendship with Gail. Her giving away of free stuff! Cars, money, food, books, orphaned Asian children..scratch that last one. But she has proven ready and willing to give things away indiscriminately. It works for her. Hey- her shows are free to attend and she still gives things away.

Drayton McLane, I hope you're paying attention. Why don't the Astros take a page form the O-Dog's playbook and offer giveaways not just every once in a while, but every single home game. Make it creative:

-Take an Astro home and have him help with household chores. Every month, 25 lucky fans get to take home one of their favorite big leaguers to sweep the walk, scrub toilets and rake leaves. Can't you see Hunter Pence and Mike Bourn becoming even more of the fan's favorites based on their youthful exuberance with the mop or broom? If Lance and Roy were getting tired of playing baseball, imagine how upset they'd be having to fill Grandma's bath with epsom salts. Guarantee it: Roy would be like Sean Casey on the field, smiling and yucking it up with everyone, happy to be done with his indentured servitude.

-For the first 500 fans 25 and under: play for an Astros' minor league affiliate. The first 500 relatively young people will get a chance to play professional baseball for one of the Astros' farm teams. It's perfect, there's no pressure since we haven't fielded a winning minor league club since 2007, and what better way to clue the casual fan into just how poorly the lower realms of this franchise are run. On second thought: push the age limit up to 28. 30 if you're a lefty who's "slow developing, with good, raw stuff". Another can't miss.

What other give aways should Drayton put on the schedule? There are 81 home games. I suggested two. Let's see how many creative ideas we can get.