SB Nation - Kansas City Royals

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

22 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Barton, Ka'aihue Could Be Cheap 1B Options

Satchel Price — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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Editor's note: Please welcome Satchel Price to Beyond the Box Score. He comes to us having written for MLB Daily Dish. He'll be contributing regularly, so please make him feel at home. -TBB

Note: This piece was written before the trade sending Brett Wallace to Toronto for Michael Taylor. It's less likely that the Athletics deal Barton now that they dealt away arguably the best 1B/DH prospect in their organization, but they do still need to find playing time for Barton, Fox, Carter and possibly Doolittle, and ideally Fox wouldn't be playing third base everyday.

Even in these depressed economic times, we’ve still seen solid contributors, but not star players, get pretty significant money on the free agent market. When guys like Placido Polanco and Brandon Lyon are getting three-year deals worth $5-6M guaranteed per season, then it becomes quite clear that there are still numerous opportunities for teams to find potential bargains, especially on the trade market.

While neither of the players that I’m about to mention has been openly discussed as being available in trade, presumably each of them could be pried for a reasonable price given that they don’t have established roles on their MLB teams and have competition for their positions going forward. Both players still have trade value, and each one was once a highly regarded prospect and has shown the ability to excel in the upper levels of the minors and/or in the majors. Given the circumstances, it seems likely that they could be dealt for the right price.

We’ll start the off with first baseman Daric Barton of the Oakland Athletics. A top prospect since being a part of the package that landed Mark Mulder in St. Louis, Barton hasn't quite taken hold of the first base job in Oakland as expected. He’s flashed the ability to get on base at a high clip with good gap power and played above-average defense, but he did not impress during an extended stint with the club in 2008.

Barton's biggest flaw has always been a lack of power for someone on his side of the defensive spectrum, but he makes up for it with excellent contact skills and a very developed, patient approach at the plate. Barton, 24, was given the everyday job in Oakland in 2008 and struggled, posting a .226/.327/.348 line (85 wRC+) in 523 plate appearances, but he still posted a strong walk rate, and was pretty unlucky with balls in play and HR/FB rate. He rebounded well in 2009, with a .261/.386/.458 line in 313 plate appearances with AAA Sacramento, and an improved .269/.372/.413 line (112 wRC+) in 192 plate appearances in Oakland.

While it would be unsurprising to see Barton as Oakland’s first baseman on Opening Day 2010, it seems clear that Oakland doesn’t expect him to hold that position long term, considering that top prospects Brett Wallace, Chris Carter and Sean Doolittle all project as first baseman. Currently, Wallace is working at third base, and the latter two are attempting to make transitions to the outfield. Most scouts don’t believe that Wallace and Carter are capable of being adequate defensively anywhere but first base and their bats are essentially ready for the majors, so presumably each will get playing time in Oakland in 2010. Wallace and Carter could play their current respective positions of third base and left field, with Barton at first base, but each would be major liabilities defensively and Oakland likely doesn’t want consistently poor defense behind a young pitching staff.

Considering that the Athletics need to find playing time for Barton, Wallace, Carter, the recently added Jake Fox, and outfielders Ryan Sweeney, Scott Hairston, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis and Travis Buck between six positions (1B, 3B, OF, DH), I would inquire on Barton if I were a GM and I had a hole at first base. I'm not saying that the A's should shop Barton because he'll never be helpful to them, but it's not clear how he fits into their long-term plans and he's a guy that they would presumably consider moving. If Oakland is willing to deal Barton in order to get playing time for more highly touted young players (and they're not exactly a contender in 2010 anyway) Barton could be a great fit for a bunch of teams. He's not the 40-homer masher that you ideally want at first base, but he could definitely be a nice addition for someone with a hole there.

While Barton is likely to be an everyday first baseman in 2010, Kila Ka’aihue of the Kansas City Royals can’t say the same thing for himself. Ka’aihue is a first baseman from a mold similar to that of Barton: very good on-base skills, decent but unimpressive gap power, little value on the basepaths, and solid defense at first base.

Ka’aihue’s best skill is his approach as a hitter, he’s exceptionally patient with a consistent track record of huge walk rates. It seemed that he was in line to share first base and designated hitter duties with Billy Butler for the 2009 season, but GM Dayton Moore preferred to trade for Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins, a first baseman with much more power than Ka’aihue but essentially no other skills otherwise. Moore obviously couldn’t help but be tantalized by Jacobs’ combination of poor defense and low walk rates, the same traits that landed Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Yuniesky Betancourt, Miguel Olivo and others on the same roster of misfits.

While giving up Leo Nunez and about $3M in salary to land Jacobs was a bad move in its own right, blocking Ka’aihue made the move that much worse. In 2008, the season before the Jacobs deal, Ka'aihue posted a .314/.463/.624 line in 376 PA in AA, with a 21.8% walk rate, and a .316/.439/.640 line in 114 PA in AAA, with a 17.4% walk rate.

Clearly, Ka'aihue was ready to get at-bats at the major league level, but the Royals chose to overpay in talent for a power threat that doesn't get on base and can't play defense. Jacobs would post a .305 wOBA and a -0.7 WAR on the season, reinforcing the poor evaluations within Kansas City's front office.

Turning 26 in March, Ka'aihue definitely deserves an everyday shot somewhere, whether that's with the Royals or somewhere else, like Cleveland, San Francisco, Atlanta, or New York. While he wasn't able to repeat his impressive power production and contact ability in AAA in 2009, he still had an impressive eye, with 102 walk and 85 strikeouts in 555 PA, a very impressive 18.8% walk rate and a decent ISO of .181, although that’s far below the .300+ ISO’s he previously posted in the upper minors.

Considering that the Royals essentially have two MLB-ready guys that are only playable at first base or designated hitter, Ka’aihue and Billy Butler, along with two other talented hitters without a clear position in Josh Fields and Alberto Callaspo (assuming that Getz is the everyday second baseman), it seems that Ka’aihue would be readily available if Moore received the right offer.

Numerous reports have already come out regarded potential trades for Callaspo, and it seems clear that the team is prepared to give everyday at-bats to Butler, Getz and possibly Fields, which doesn’t leave much room for Ka’aihue considering his lack of defensive versatility.

Each of these two first baseman haven’t gotten as much hype as other prospects who had more power potential, the ultimate trait of first base prospects, but they have some solid upside and logically should be relatively available. Considering that Adam LaRoche is reportedly looking for a three-year deal worth $31.5M and is essentially a good player for one half of each season, Nick Johnson is still Nick Johnson and that means injury questions galore, and the other options, guys like Jacobs, Ryan Garko, Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, Russell Branyan and Chad Tracy, are just flat-out underwhelming, it seems like looking at cheaper alternatives like Barton and Ka’aihue should be pretty popular this winter.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:16:15 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mark DiFelice hopes to pitch for the Brewers again in 2011.

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Some things to read while choosing carefully.

Well, this was bound to happen eventually: There's virtually no Brewer news today. Today's top story is the $100,000 minor league deal given to Mark DiFelice, who will spend the 2010 season rehabbing with Brewer trainers in the hope of returning to the mound with the Crew in 2011 (FanShot).

Elsewhere, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has a look at the last few Brewer drafts, from a somewhat pessimistic point of view. The Brewer organization is down a bit and there's certainly not a lot of depth to speak of, but I think they deserve a little more credit than that.

I recently contributed to a discussion on the NL Central's moves at the Winter Meetings over at The Nats Blog, along with seven other NL Central sites.

We're continuing to plug away at the BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to vote for our final starting outfielder, and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for our first bench infield spot. Geoff Jenkins has a pretty commanding lead in the former, but Craig Counsell's lead is much smaller in the latter. A new vote will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Royals: Are expected to sign former Twins pitcher Phil Humber to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Acquired Juan Pierre and cash from the Dodgers for two PTBNL.

Meanwhile, side deals are being struck to go along with the not-yet-official Mariners-Phillies-Blue Jays deal involving Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay: When/if the deal becomes official, the Blue Jays will send outfielder Michael Taylor to the A's for third baseman Brett Wallace, recently acquired in the Matt Holliday deal.

In a financially larger transaction, the Rangers are one large step closer to having a new owner, as Tom Hicks has selected a group of investors including current team president Nolan Ryan to begin negotiations.

Not much else going on, so I guess we can talk about a couple of former Brewers: The B-Ref blog has a look at some of the unique facets of Mike Cameron's career. He's in elite company on some relatively significant all-time lists. The Transaction Oracle projects him to hit .252/.349/.442 in 2010.

Meanwhile, I know I said I'd try to go the rest of the week without mentioning Jason Kendall, but this Transaction Oracle quote is a little too good to pass up:

Seriously, if the Royals gave me $1 million to me to kick Moore in the crotch, they'd be better off from both a financial and a baseball standpoint.

How about a note about a former Brewer catcher that was actually pretty good? Cardboard Gods has a post where at least a couple of paragraphs are about Darrell Porter.

Here's a study I'd like to see someone duplicate for the Brewers: DRaysBay has a look at variations in the 2009 Rays' attendance based on starting pitcher. There's a lot of factors to consider (opponent, day of the week, position in the standings), but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers lost a fair chunk of attendance on days when Jeff Suppan or Braden Looper pitched down the stretch last season.

Speaking of things someone could duplicate for the Brewers, FishStripes has a Marlins add-on for Firefox. I'm not sure what exactly that entails, but if someone made a Brewer one and it didn't get in the way while I'm trying to work, I'd use it.

It's possible it's just something to do for the sake of pretending to do something, but Bud Selig has formed a committee to consider and address on-field improvements for the game, and one writer (Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune) thinks it might be the first step towards a legitimate challenge of the DH rule. (h/t BBTF) Craig Calcaterra, however, threw some cold water on the theory.

On this day in 1999, the Brewers signed Jose Hernandez to a three year, $10 million deal. Hernandez had one very good season as a Brewer and made the All Star team in 2002, but also struck out 498 times in three seasons, leading the NL in two of his three years.

On this day in 2002, the Brewers traded Ray King to the Braves for Wes Helms and John Foster. Helms spent three years as a Brewer, hitting .268/.335/.425. Somehow, I remember him being much worse than that.

Happy birthday today to:

Alcides Escobar, who turns 23.
2003-2004 Brewer Matt Kinney, who turns 33.
Former Brewer first round pick and 1975 Brewer Tommy Bianco, who turns 57.

Drink up.

Blue Jays Acquire...John Buck.

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:15:08 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

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The Blue Jays finally made their move. Oh I don't mean the rumored earth shattering blockbuster that involves two of the Major Leagues top 10 pitchers in Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. I mean signing John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million dollars.

Less than a day after being non-tendered by the Royals, Buck will likely be the backstop on most days for the Toronto squad. Buck was non-tendered in part to the Royals signing of Jason Kendall, who was given a $3 million dollar annual salary from the Royals over two years. Why the older, more expensive Kendall over Buck? That's just Dayton Moore.

Buck isn't an offensive dynamo, but has flashed some power (.171 career ISO). He did have a .332 wOBA during limited action in 2009 (202 PA) mostly due to his power. Overall, he compares well with the recent group of catchers, who have signed for two-year deals at a greater guranteed paycheck.

Defensively, I haven't heard much about Buck being a butcher behind the plate and his ~26% caught stealing percentage is just below Kendall's 27%. Of course he isn't as gritty, or as veteran-ny as Kendall, so that probably justifies the $4 million more in guaranteed money as well as the six-year difference in age. Just proof that the hopes for a replacement level team in Kansas City is still alive.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

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Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

A John Buck Scouting Report From Royals Review

Tom Dakers — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:37:59 -0000

I sent a note to Royalsreview from Royals Review (what are the odds?), SB Nation's Kansas City Royals blogs, asking for a scouting report on John Buck. Here is what he had to say:

Offensively, he's exactly what his numbers suggest: he's willing to take a pitch or work a count, and he has some power. The batting average is always going to be so low that it drags down a lot of his production, but for a catcher, he's not a bad option.

People are generally pretty down about his defense, specifically his ability to throw out baserunners. He's below average in that regard, but his numbers the last few years have been especially bad. Maybe that's something that will move closer to his career average, maybe he's declining. He threw out 33% of basestealers his first three seasons, then went under 20% the next three. My sense is that he's not great at it, but it's also not a situation where it was so bad that opposing teams gameplanned around it.

He slugged .484 as a backup last season, so its both a small sample, but also an impressive number. He's going to look very bad at times because thats what low batting average guys do. You'll be watching a game in July and a graphic will pop up that he's 1 for his last 32 or something. But I also think that he could be ready for a .250/.310/.480 career year.

As a personal thing, I think there is more to a catchers defense than throwing out baserunners, so if he handles pitchers well, I'll live with a poorer arm. If he pulled off that 'career year' I'd be thrilled. It compares very favorably to Rod Barajas .226/.258/.403. In fact he has never had a OPS+ as poor as Rod's 73 from last year. They seem fairly similar offensive players, Buck gets on a bit more, Rod might hit a couple more homers. Buck is younger, I would guess he'd have the better year next year. I'd also guess that Rod will get a bigger contract.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:11:17 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

This week turned out to be all about Rafael Soriano for the Atlanta Braves.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 13th:

In the Press...

There were early rumors, then more rumors, and finally Rafael Soriano decided to accept arbitration from the Braves.
Soriano was quickly traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for another bullpen arm, Jesse Chavez.
There were early reports at the Winter Meetings that Kelly Johnson was in high demand on the trade market, but apparently that was not the case as the Braves non-tendered Johnson yesterday.
Ryan Church was initially DFA'ed to make room for Soriano on the roster, and then he was non-tendered later in the week.
The Braves have shown some interest in free agent Xavier Nady.
Matt Diaz was re-signed for the 2010 season by the Braves.

At Talking Chop...

For a complete and detailed recap of the Braves happenings at the Winter Meetings, click here.
I penned a post hoping that the Braves stay away from Mike Cameron.
CB previewed the Rule 5 draft, and correctly called that Edgar Osuna would be the guy off the Braves roster who was selected. He was selected by, surprise, the Royals. Those Royals also signed two other ex-Braves players.
Talking Chop got the exclusive scoop on all the Braves minor league and international free agent signings.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

jdunk asks the if trading Derek Lowe will make the Braves better.
Meanwhile, JKowalek thinks the Braves and Cubs should make a swap involving Lowe.
And AndrewWK wants the Braves to swap Lowe for a speedster.

Coming up tomorrow on Talking Chop, the combined community top-25 Braves prospects.

Jays Sign John Buck

Tom Dakers — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:02:15 -0000

Don't the Jays know it is Sunday? After a couple of months of not doing anything, they choose the day of rest (and NFL Football) to start signing guys. Anyway, Jason Stark (any relation to Tony?) on ESPN.com, says that the Jays have signed former Royals catcher John Buck to a one year $2 million deal. I thought the MLB passed a rule that all free agent catchers get 2 year deals. Nice signing, but I'm sure the Jays will keep looking at improving at catcher. Click on his name to see his stats, he's not Johnny Bench, but he's not bad. He will be 29 next year. We've added two Bucks to the this week.

This Week in Twitter (T.W.I.T.): Getting one last laugh out of Jason Kendall

KLSnow — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Jason Kendall and Jeff Suppan: One down, one to go.

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So, as you've probably heard, Jason Kendall signed a two year contract with the Royals over the weekend, and shortly thereafter, the #jasonkendallfacts hashtag on Twitter was born. The movement can probably be largely attributed to Keith Law, but dozens of people have weighed in with their own Jason Kendall Facts. Here are a few of my favorites:

@matthewrjohnson Jason Kendall once collaborated with 50 Cent to make the hit song G.I.D.P.

@themattgalloway Jason Kendall collects more soft singles than the average full-time stripper.

@voteformelhuse 3/3 Molina brothers agree that Jason Kendall is the easiest catcher in MLB to steal off of.

@themattgalloway Jason Kendall is the reason Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN. He just couldn't stand covering him anymore.

@keithlaw Nihilism: The belief that life is just a series of Jason Kendall at bats.

@hardbraun Jason Kendall has infield fly rule power.

@juristblog Jason Kendall has never used performance-enhancing drugs - according to an ad campaign for performance-enhancing drugs.

@atmeiller Shaves with a cheese grater, and towels off with sand paper. #GRIT

@djpeck21 Jason Kendall is the inspiration for 2 cereals: Kendall Krunch and Cinnamon Toast Suck

@keithlaw Brian Wilson saw Jason Kendall hit and wouldn't get out of bed for a year.

@jposnanski Pujols, Mauer, Ichiro, Holliday and Jeter all have higher BATTING AVERAGES than JK's SLG PCT since 2005

@kevin_goldstein Spent some time looking for a reason to be contrarian and justify the Jason Kendall signing in light of the #JasonKendallFacts -- I failed.

@dempseysarmy Everytime Zack Greinke looks in for a sign, he will ruefully mutter "I can't believe this shit."

@markelderallen In wake of "transgressions," Royals GM Dayton Moore pleads for "privacy for the Royals family to have time to heal"

@abpow Someone watching Jason Kendall bat was the inspiration for Edward Munch's "The Scream"

@keithlaw Jason Kendall has so little power that when the Royals signed him, all the lights in Kansas City went out.

@robneyer Jason Kendall will not be the worst hitter in the Royal lineup.