SB Nation - Minnesota Twins

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Thoughts From So Far

colintj — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:02:39 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Nice sute.

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1) The team is right when it says it's done its major acquisitions.

Kenny's bought 5 guys for the 25 man roster in Vizquel, Kotsay, Jones, Teahen and Pierre for about $9M. That's 1.5-2 expected WAR, which they'll probably get. But the Sox aren't leveraging themselves one way or another based on the performance of the supporting cast.

2) The 2009 White Sox opened the season with 3 very specific deficiencies: 3B, CF, and Starter Candidate #5

Consider: Last year's 79-80 win talent was basically without Rios, Beckham and Peavy and (though Rios didn't help much) the former two had collectively below replacement antecedents in Fields, Betemit, Anderson and Wise. Peavy meanwhile replaces the 4 starter amalgam worth probably 1.5-2 WAR in '09. So let's say Rios' value is 1-3 wins over '09 replacement, Beckham 3-4, and Peavy 1-3. That's 87-88 wins total.

3) True Talent In '10

Eyeballing it, CHONE has the Sox winning 87ish games, ZiPS a couple fewer while Bill James and the fans (perhaps expectedly) are the most optimistic. So the Sox right now are baseline in the 86-88 win range.

4) The Sweet Spot

Nate Silver, from Baseball Between The Numbers:

The most sensitive part of the graph--what we'll call the sweet spot--is between about 86 and 93 wins.

Kenny undoubtedly has his own team-specific version of this general calculation, but the suggestion from here is that it probably makes a certain amount of economic sense for Kenny to nab a DH now that he's set up his team right in the sweet spot. Beyond that, the hated Twins have set themselves up to compete having made an excellent addition to a solid squad in JJ Hardy. Again eyeballing CHONE and ZiPS, the Twins are within striking distance, largely canceling out the Sox' advantage in the rotation with Mauer and friends. As it stands, the Twins have a distinct advantage at DH in Jason Kubel, whom ZiPS and CHONE see as worth a very average 2 wins, which Cust or Thome could certainly take back.

[updated to include the following - colin]

5) Asinine Speculation About Prospects

It's always hazardous to guess at Kenny's thoughts, but...let's at least brush up on what kind of prospect package he'd be willing to put together. The only way to make it really count would be to include either or both of Tyler Flowers and Dan Hudson. The team seems to have treated Flowers and Hudson as pieces of the puzzle in turning this core into a long term contender. Hudson appears to be DJ Carrasco's replacement until he proves he's better than Freddy Garcia, which is a nice way of getting Hudson consistent low leverage multiple inning work and making sure Freddy stays focused on keeping his job.

For Flowers, the assumption is apparently that he has the backup backstop spot on lockdown. When I squint, I see where Kenny's going with it: it's a cheap stopgap that turns into a carrot for Flowers and puts him in a position to succeed in a platoon with AJ. His high K rate is going to bother him the most early on, so ABs against lefties will ease him in. But what really matters is him sticking as a defender. CHONE and ZiPS have him as better than 1 WAR per 150 games as long as his defense isn't atrocious. If that's the case, then it's a possibility Kenny, giving Flowers spring training and the first third of the season to show he's ready with the bat, flips AJ before he gains 5 and 10 rights. Of course since there is something to gain from bluffing that The Boogeyman might be that ready, it's not necessarily the case that Kenny's credible here. The conventional wisdom is to make sure your prospects get as many reps as possible.

Who Can Be Minnesota's Fourth Outfielder?

Jesse — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:12:49 -0000

It's been a slow couple of weeks for baseball fans in Twins Territory, as we wait for news of a third baseman sighting or maybe a Joe Mauer extension. But this is something of an under-rated question for the off-season check list: who will the Twins have as their fourth outfielder in 2010?

I'm already assuming that, left to right, Ron Gardenhire's outfield will be Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. You could jot Jason Kubel down as the fourth outfielder, but I'm happy to pencil him in as simply "DH". Right now there is no obvious answer for that fourth guy because there's nobody left to backup Denard in center field.

Corey Patterson

Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 175

Born: Aug 13, 1979

Remember this guy? He had a couple of decent offensive seasons with the Cubs a few years back but his value was in his defense. In 2004 he was one of the best center fielders around (33.8 UZR/150), and even outside of that season he was always a guy who fielded his position very well. It seems he should be a lot older considering how long he's been playing, but the guy just turned 30.

Patterson wouldn't have been a bad option, if he hadn't already signed a minor league contract with the Mariners. So who else fits the bill?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Coco Crisp	49	180	30	41	8	5	3	14	29	23	13	2	.228	.336	.378

Crisp is just 30 as well, and managed to perform a pretty solid disappearing act in Kansas City last year. He's played a lot of outfield over the years, and in general he's done it well. Like Patterson he's not really a threat with the bat in his hands, and he hasn't been able to duplicate the success of his 2005 breakout season, but his value is in his glove and his ability to backup a position that nobody on the major league roster could do for the Twins. At least, nobody that you'd want out there for any kind of an extended period of time.

Unfortunately it looks like Crisp will be off the market shortly, as the Athletics have been tied to him over the last few days.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Rocco Baldelli	62	150	23	38	4	1	7	23	11	37	1	0	.253	.311	.433

Baldelli just turned 28 at the end of the season, and again it's hard to believe after all he's been through. He's lucky to still be playing the game after his medical condition was mid-diagnosed, and he's a long time removed from finishing 3rd in rookie of the year voting (2003) and from his last solid offensive season (2006). In spite of those red flags there is some upside with Baldelli; he's younger than most of the guys on this list, he's versatile and he's likely to come at a bargain rate.

I like Baldelli. If only so I can cheer for a guy called Rocko (hey, no more Boof). But clearly there's got to be a guy out there who doesn't have that kind of a rap sheet on health.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Scott Podsednik	132	537	75	163	25	6	7	48	39	74	30	13	.304	.353	.412

Pods is coming off one of his best seasons at the dish, and in spite of turning 34 in March is probably one of the best free agent players of the profile we're looking for. That career .340 OBP isn't great, but there's a lot worse around. Traditionally his defense isn't a good as most of the guys on this list, but he has two things that play in his favor: he played all three outfield positions in 2009, and he's very fast. Anytime you can close a gap, that's a good thing. And like John Madden used to say, you can't teach speed. Actually he probably still says that.

Podsednik is not a starter. But he does have value as a fourth outfielder, and I think you could do a lot worse.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Endy Chavez	54	161	17	44	3	1	2	13	14	22	9	1	.273	.328	.342

Chavez turns 32 in February and, in spite of being a decent contact hitter, doesn't have a lot of value at the plate. He does have good speed, but (and you might be picking up on a trend here) his value lies in his defense. Over the course of his career he's logged hundreds of innings at all three outfield positions and, as a general rule, he's played all three at a high level.

Obviously because of his offense (career 75 OPS+) this isn't a guy you want to expose a great deal at the plate. Also, there should be some concern over how his knee is after tearing his ACL last June. But as far as defensive options on this list go, Chavez might be the best one.

Joey Gathright

Boston Red Sox

Height: 5-10

Weight: 185

Born: Apr 27, 1982

Gathright is one of those guys who has some good tools, and either hasn't learned how to use them or they just aren't as good as we were told they were. He had a great year in part time with the Royals in 2007, but in general has been underwhelming in terms of performance. But again, he's quick and he plays all three outfield positions. He's good at stealing bases.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Randy Winn	149	538	65	141	33	5	2	51	47	93	16	2	.262	.318	.353

This is a popular guy, and I don't really expect him to sign with a team that won't start him everyday, but at this point in his career I have to wonder if he's at a crossroads. He'll turn 36 in June and, although he put up good offensive numbers for the Giants in '07 and '08, he's clearly not the player he was in his prime.

Winn can play all three outfield positions, and if he's looking to sign with a team with a legitimate chance for October, if he's looking to sign with a good team for a lesser role to get that shot at a ring, then maybe this is something he considers. If the price is right, Winn would be my choice of anyone on this list.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

Then there's the internal option. Pridie is younger than anyone on this list, just turning 26 in August. He can backup Denard in center field, he has a little pop in his bat, and I have to believe he'll be playing with something to prove. But he strikes out way too much at the minor league level, is allergic to getting on base, and has no major league track record to show what he can bring to a club with any certainty.

Would you sign any of these guys? How much of a concern is a fourth outfielder to you at this point?

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

The Top 5 Winners in the MLB Off-Season (so far)

doron — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 18:35:35 -0000

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

Which teams rank as the top 5 winners in the MLB off-season, so far?

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After this memorable Hot Stove week, I figured it would be a great time to take a look at the big winners thus far in the MLB off-season. Which teams have made big splashes already, and which teams should be focusing on those remaining free agents? With that in mind, here are my picks for the top five winners thus far in the off-season.

5. Minnesota Twins

While by comparison to the names ahead on this list, the Twins off-season might seem quiet thus far, they’ve been helped by circumstance as much as they’ve helped themselves. The Twins made the first big acquisition of the off-season trading for shortstop JJ Hardy, and relinquishing Carlos Gomez, a trade that most believe favors the Twins. So long as JJ Hardy can recover from a down year in 2009, the Twins will be adding a great bat, with average, power and defense, at a premium position. Add to this the rumors that a Joe Mauer extension is in the works, the loss of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco by the Tigers, and the risky moves we’ve seen from the White Sox, and it seems that the Twins are a clear favorite to take the AL Central even with these small moves.

Next Steps: Extending Joe Mauer, and perhaps upgrades at third-base (Adrian Beltre?) or a mid-level starting pitcher.

4. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have made some great baseball decisions this off-season. For starters, they declined their option on Pedro Feliz and replaced him with a better-defensive player who gets on-base at a better rate in Placido Polanco. Their other big move of course was upgrading staff aces by adding Roy Halladay, despite the loss of Cliff Lee. They gave up some great prospects in the deal, but were at least able to replace them with similar talents. Phillippe Aumont, in particular, may not be far away from being able to help the bullpen of the Phillies, if they decide to keep him in a relief role in the minors. With Doc under contract for the next four years, the Phillies are in a great position to start off the next decade with success.

Next Steps: Bullpen help for Brad Lidge

3. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox off-season seems to have taken hints from the Seattle Mariners with their defense focus. They added Mike Cameron, who will be a gigantic defense upgrade over Jason Bay. They’ve also added solid shortstop Marco Scutaro, who is a versatile defender and, if he can replicate his 2009 season, will be a big offensive boost at the shortstop position that’s hurt them for years. They are also looking to move Mike Lowell to Texas, and rumors tell us that Adrian Beltre, one of the best defensive third-basemen in the game, would be their main target for third base in that case. On top of that, they added the markets best free agent pitcher in John Lackey, which gives them a very dominant looking rotation.

Next Steps: Perhaps signing Adrian Beltre if Lowell is traded, and those never-ending Adrian Gonzalez rumors.

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees have essentially made two substantial moves this off-season, and they’ve both been excellent. They made a massive splash by trading for Curtis Granderson, who will allow the outfield positions to shift and create a huge defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon. On top of that, his lefty-handed bat and power to right field will play perfect in Yankee Stadium, allowing most to think that he’ll have a terrific season in 2010. He’s also got the reputation of being a great guy, and that never hurts. This week, they also added Nick Johnson, who will likely replace DH Hideki Matsui. Johnson is what I like to refer to as an "OBP Monster", and while the 2-spot is unconventional for a DH, his propensity to take walks would look great in front of Mark Texeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Next Steps: It’s hard to imagine any, really. Unless they get crazy and try to add Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, their lineup of all-stars looks complete.

1. Seattle Mariners

At the beginning of the off-season, there were rumblings that the Mariners had a ton of cash to spend, but many dismissed that rumor. I don’t think anyone expected this type of off-season from Seattle. They picked up speedy Chone Figgins to provide great defense and get on-base with Ichiro at the top of the lineup, acquired Cliff Lee to give them baseball’s best one-two pitching punch, and now added Milton Bradley, who will give them a very good bat, so long as his attitude doesn’t get in the way. The man they call "Jack Z" is being essentially universally-praised these days, and with good reason. In less than two years, he’s taken the Mariners from a train-wreck to the clear-cut favorites to win the AL West. With the pitching they have, they may even be able to make a great run through the playoffs.

Next Steps: A power-bat in the middle of the lineup, though Jason Bay doesn’t fit their defense-minded approach. A slugging first-baseman should do the trick.

Poll

Who do you think has won the MLB Off-Season so far?

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:03:38 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

It appears Claudio Vargas was never photographed as a Brewer. He'll get another chance to show up in an AP photo in 2010.

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Some things to read while simulating a sunrise.

Claudio Vargas is expected in Milwaukee for his physical late in the day today, so we can expect an official announcement on his contract sometime late this afternoon. Vargas had to return from the Dominican Republic, where he just reported to winter ball a few weeks ago and has yet to allow an earned run in four relief appearances, including two saves. Since he's only logged 6.1 innings of work, he might head back down there after the physical.

Until last season, Vargas had thought of himself as a starter temporarily pitching out of the bullpen, but Adam McCalvy has the story of how a late-season matchup against Albert Pujols changed his mind and caused him to embrace his new role.

Once the Vargas signing is official, the Brewer 40 man roster will be full. Tom H. engaged in a little rosterbation and notes the team is pretty much set going into spring training, barring an injury or trade.

With a tight roster, apparently there's no room for Seth McClung. McClung tweeted that the Brewers sent an email to his agent letting him know they're not interested in pursuing a deal to bring him back as a free agent. He's also looking to sell his house in Florida, if you're in the market.

Meanwhile, Adam McCalvy posted a correction to an earlier report on the incentives in LaTroy Hawkins' contract: they're actually tied to appearances and games finished, not saves. As TheJay noted, the collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tying incentives to "skill" stats, but allows them for playing time.

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Chuck Lofgren's hometown paper has a story about his opportunity to pitch for the Brewers this spring. They also have this quote, which might remind you of another former Brewer reliever/pinch hitter:

"I don't prepare for spring training like a hitter would, but I do still get in the cage,'' Lofgren said. "I can still hit. I never really lost it.''

Months into the offseason, the market hasn't heated up quite as much as one might have expected for second basemen. FanGraphs has a look at the guys that still remain on the market, including Felipe Lopez, and the possibility that they'll have to change positions to find work this offseason. I still think Lopez would have turned down arbitration in search of full-time work, but perhaps the Brewers knew something we didn't in terms of the market for his services.

Adam McCalvy also picked up on that note, and his ensuing post on Lopez included this note regarding the Brewer payroll for 2010:

Melvin says he still has some flexibility left over to troll the market in January and February for bargains. If he doesn't find any deals to his liking, Melvin could retain that flexibility into June and July to make a pre-trade deadline deal.

I guess the possibility of another signing shouldn't be ruled out.

Have the Brewers done enough to improve themselves this offseason? Reds Blog handicapped the 2010 NL Central, and said the Brewers "may be slightly better than the Reds, but not much."

John Steinmiller and Caitlin Moyer continue to give us looks into the offseason jobs of the Brewer front office staff: Today they have a look at the work being done by Aleta Mercer, Brewers Senior Director of Entertainment and Broadcasting.

Meanwhile, the Timber Rattlers' front office staff still has some time on their hands, as demonstrated by the five minute battle for superiority between ketchup and mustard in this week's episode of The Offseason.

The Timber Rattlers are also looking for your help to select a shortstop for their 15th anniversary team. Follow this link to read about the candidates, then click over to the front page to vote.

Speaking of voting, we have two of the closest races to date for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to cast a vote for a backup catcher, where Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 13 votes. You also have until 4 pm tomorrow to cast a vote for our fourth outfielder, where Carlos Lee leads Scott Podsednik by 28 votes, with Jeromy Burnitz lurking over his shoulder.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Signed infielders Doug Mientkiewicz and Angel Berroa to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed Ricky Nolasco to a $3.8 million, one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Mets: Signed Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi to a two year deal worth $3 million.
Padres: Signed outfielder Chris Denorfia to a minor league deal.

Here's another research project for a reader looking for something to do: Max Marchi of The Hardball Times looks at the difference in pitches CC Sabathia threw to three Yankee catchers in 2009, showing he appeared to prefer to throw sinkers to Jose Molina. I'd be curious to see if there are any disparities in pitches thrown to Mike Rivera and Jason Kendall last season.

There seem to be enough sites discussing it so I'm not going to turn the Mug into a daily receptacle for notes on Hall of Fame voting, but I did find these notes interesting:

Tom H. submitted his ballot yesterday, and had nine players on it. He didn't name them but based on this argument for Bert Blyleven, it's safe to assume he's one of them.
Followers on Twitter convinced Jeff Fletcher of AOL to change his mind and vote yes for Tim Raines.
Rob Neyer reminded us that some Hall of Fame voters still don't get it.

Speaking of Neyer, earlier this week I mentioned his post on the top 100 players of the decade, which included Corey Koskie (among others), but not Prince Fielder. Tangotiger has a look at Koskie's career, and his somewhat surprising route to 22 WAR in slightly more than five full seasons.

If that's not enough stat content for you today, Big League Stew has everything you always wanted to know about WPA.

There may be snow on the field on or near Opening Day, but at least Target Field will have functional bathrooms. Hall of Famer and Twins exec Tony Oliva was recently trapped in a Metrodome bathroom when the handle fell off the door.

I've heard of players doing all kinds of things to break slumps, but Hee Seop Choi might have topped them all by climbing Mount Seorak.

On this day in 1985, the Brewers traded two minor leaguers to the Giants for Rob Deer. Long before Russell Branyan was king of the Three True Outcomes, Deer was a 3TO Pioneer, hitting .229/.329/.450 with 333 walks, 137 home runs and 823 strikeouts in five seasons as a Brewer. Those 137 home runs were the tenth most in baseball during that stretch.

Happy birthday today to 2009 Nashville Sound Patrick Arlis, who turns 29.

Oh, and I'm hoping Garrett Broshuis will eventually share the plans for his Radioactive Cardboard Catcher.

Drink up.

Baseball Prospectus View of the Trade

Tom Dakers — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:41:11 -0000

More photos » by FRANK GUNN - AP

Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos makes his first big trade(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn )

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Baseball Prospectus has their opinion of the big trade up on their site. A couple of bits I thought I'd steal:

As good as the Mariners did, though, the big winners here were the Blue Jays. Behind the eight-ball with a pitcher they could not sign and could not trade without his permission, which likely meant a value-killing contract commitment, they were able to bring in three prospects who could all be part of winning teams in the middle of the decade. What Alex Anthopolous brought back dwarfs what the Twins got for Santana two years ago. It’s too easy to say that Drabek could grow into a Halladay replacement, but he has that kind of ability. Remember that the Blue Jays have shown a facility for turning lesser pitchers into league-average starters. Drabek has more talent than any pitcher in their system. D’Arnaud is a polished hitter with a strong enough arm to remain behind the plate, and while he doesn’t have the star potential Drabek has, he projects as an inexpensive, good player at a key position.

No pressure there on the poor kid. Could be a Halladay replacement. But I agree that Anthopoulos got far more that the Twins got for Sanatana. And under a bigger microscope.

Anthoplolous traded the third prospect, Taylor, to the A’s for Brett Wallace. This is an interesting challenge trade, dealing the more complete player for the player with one dominant skill. The Jays’ advantage in acquiring Wallace is that they will be able to develop him as a first baseman if need be, as they have only Lyle Overbay in his way, and that only for a year. Wallace isn’t as bad a third baseman as he looks to be on first glance, lacking lateral range but having acceptable hands and moving fairly well back and forth. An eventual move off of third has long been assumed inevitable, and if that is necessary, the Jays can fade that. Wallace joins Travis Snider and Adam Lind for what could end up as a championship-caliber middle of the lineup. For the A’s part, they get the player with the broader skill set who may fit their situation a bit better; the A’s need outfielders who can cover ground, and Taylor is a good right fielder who could make their team out of spring training.

This is the real interesting part of the trade to me. Michael Taylor is a good prospect and I was pretty happy when we thought the Jays were going to get. He would fill in the gaping hole in RF and if he didn't turn out to be great, Alex could have just said 'well we all thought he would be good'. But trading him like this shows guts. For the rest of each of their careers we'll be comparing the two of them. If Wallace turns into the better player, Alex is a genus. If Taylor turns out to be the better player, he'll never hear the end of it.

You do have to like that he has the guts to do it. Right or wrong a GM has to make the moves he believes in. If he thinks Wallace will be the better player, he can't be afraid of the reaction if he is wrong. If you worry about what happens if you are wrong, you won't do anything.

I hope it works out but more than that, I'm happy Alex has shown the guts needed to be a GM.

Looking Forward: Projecting the 2010 Twins

Adam Peterson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:00:28 -0000

As the rumor mills fly, optimism abounds for the upcoming 2010 season. Just how good are the Twins going to be in 2010? What are the biggest holes that need to be filled during the off season? And just as importantly, how can we assess the effect that potential moves could have to improve the ball club? Many of you have probably heard of using "Wins Above Replacement", or "WAR" as a method to evaluate a player's total value to a team, compared to a "replacement" player, one who is freely available at no cost from AAA, in season free agents, etc. For the last couple of years, the website Beyond the Boxscore, and more recently on a Twinkie Town Fan Post by Jon Kammerer, fans have compiled a list of player by player WAR projections to project an estimated number of wins for entire teams, divisions and leagues.

I've done similar projections for the Twins the last few years, with varying levels of success. This year, I'm taking my projections in a different direction. Starting with actual 2009 statistics as a baseline, can I track the Twins' WAR projections as moves are made throughout the off season? This article gives us a start for a move-by-move assessment leading up to opening day. First things first, where do I put the Twins as of today? Bottom line, I project the Twins at 84-85 wins as the team is currently constructed. I've posted the full WAR spreadsheet on Google Docs here. I'm sure many of you will immediately be up in arms at a projection of a 2 win drop-off compared to 2009, a full three wins below Jon's analysis. I'll get into much more detail after the jump, but before we get there, let's take a deeper look at the three 2010 projections I've done to date compared to the 2009 data.

Date	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	LF	CF	RF	DH	SP	RP	Hit	Pitch	WAR	Wins	Notes
2009 Season	7.2	3.2	(1.3)	1.4	0.8	0.9	1.9	2.2	3.1	12.6	5.1	19.4	17.6	37.1	82.1	Actual 2009 season data
01 Nov 2009	6.1	3.1	0.6	0.4	1.4	1.1	2.4	2.1	2.2	12.5	5.3	19.5	17.8	37.3	82.3	End of season. No free agents
06 Nov 2009	6.1	2.9	1.2	0.6	2.9	0.3	2.7	1.7	2.3	12.5	5.3	20.7	17.8	38.5	83.5	Hardy-Gomez, Buscher
10 Dec 2009	6.1	2.9	1.2	0.6	2.9	0.3	2.7	1.7	2.3	13.5	5.4	20.7	18.8	39.5	84.5	Pavano, Bonser

How do I get to my projections for each player? I don't use any single projection system out there, but I don't use my own home-grown system either. Since some projections are more conservative than others (for example, Bill James' is notoriously optimistic), I put a number of systems, including Bill James and CHONE, side by side along with the previous three years data and eyeball wOBA and FIP performance for a given player. I put a lot more thought into how I assign plate appearances and innings pitched for each player on the team. You probably notice that most of my PA/IP projections appear a bit low. This allows me to account for risk of injuries, as well as assess a team's depth in the projections. Projecting every position player and member of the starting rotation to play a full season will over-project by quite a bit.

What have I found so far? First of all, I was very surprised that plugging in the final 2009 season statistics into the WAR projection spreadsheets came out at 82.1 wins, five fewer than the Twins actually won (87), and around four fewer than the Twins Pythagorean win total (86.6). Does this mean the WAR projection system is fundamentally flawed when applying to entire teams? I don't think so. I've written on a number of occasions about how the Twins do the "little things" that don't appear in the box score (or wOBA or FIP), but help a team score or prevent runs. I suspect that this explains most of the five run difference and a little luck explains the rest.

Step by step this off season, how has the team improved? Surprisingly, the moment the season ended, my projections actually jumped slightly from 82.1 to 82.3 wins. How could this be, considering that free agents Carl Pavano, Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera and Ron Mahay were no longer on the roster? Looking at the table above, other than projected declines at catcher (-1.1) third base (-1.0) and DH (-0.9), other positions offset. Middle infield, in particular (+2.5) projected an improvement, primarily due to last season's second basemen (1.3 runs below replacement) being historically bad, and expecting some improvement from a Casilla-Punto-Tolbert-Tolleson combination.

Looking at the moves so far this off season in two chunks, by my projections the Twins have improved themselves by about two wins trading for Hardy and reinstating Pavano. As expected, the Hardy trade improved SS (+1.5) and 2B (+0.6, Punto being a better 2B option than Casilla). These gains were offset by a large loss in LF(-0.8, due to Delmon Young playing pretty much full time). In the end, just over a one win improvement due to the trade. Pavano accepting arbitration also improved the Twins by around one win by setting the #4 spot in the rotation. I only project 140 innings from Pavano, so while one marginal win may not be "worth" the presumed $6-7M he'll get in arbitration, those innings replace 140 innings from Swarzak, Manship and Perkins, which is an improvement over the above replacement value the others would have provided.

Looking forward, I'll continue to update this spreadsheet as the Twins make moves and roster spots are set leading up to opening day. According to the projections, the Twins biggest holes are in LF (Delmon Young slightly above replacement), 3B (Harris-Tolbert is not very good, and I don't project much from Valencia - although he projects better than Harris or Tolbert), and 2B (Punto). Same as the Twinkie Town consensus. In the meantime, I look forward to your comments. Where am I terribly wrong with the projections? What would you do to improve the ball club, and how much effect would it have?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:16:15 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mark DiFelice hopes to pitch for the Brewers again in 2011.

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Some things to read while choosing carefully.

Well, this was bound to happen eventually: There's virtually no Brewer news today. Today's top story is the $100,000 minor league deal given to Mark DiFelice, who will spend the 2010 season rehabbing with Brewer trainers in the hope of returning to the mound with the Crew in 2011 (FanShot).

Elsewhere, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has a look at the last few Brewer drafts, from a somewhat pessimistic point of view. The Brewer organization is down a bit and there's certainly not a lot of depth to speak of, but I think they deserve a little more credit than that.

I recently contributed to a discussion on the NL Central's moves at the Winter Meetings over at The Nats Blog, along with seven other NL Central sites.

We're continuing to plug away at the BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to vote for our final starting outfielder, and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for our first bench infield spot. Geoff Jenkins has a pretty commanding lead in the former, but Craig Counsell's lead is much smaller in the latter. A new vote will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Royals: Are expected to sign former Twins pitcher Phil Humber to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Acquired Juan Pierre and cash from the Dodgers for two PTBNL.

Meanwhile, side deals are being struck to go along with the not-yet-official Mariners-Phillies-Blue Jays deal involving Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay: When/if the deal becomes official, the Blue Jays will send outfielder Michael Taylor to the A's for third baseman Brett Wallace, recently acquired in the Matt Holliday deal.

In a financially larger transaction, the Rangers are one large step closer to having a new owner, as Tom Hicks has selected a group of investors including current team president Nolan Ryan to begin negotiations.

Not much else going on, so I guess we can talk about a couple of former Brewers: The B-Ref blog has a look at some of the unique facets of Mike Cameron's career. He's in elite company on some relatively significant all-time lists. The Transaction Oracle projects him to hit .252/.349/.442 in 2010.

Meanwhile, I know I said I'd try to go the rest of the week without mentioning Jason Kendall, but this Transaction Oracle quote is a little too good to pass up:

Seriously, if the Royals gave me $1 million to me to kick Moore in the crotch, they'd be better off from both a financial and a baseball standpoint.

How about a note about a former Brewer catcher that was actually pretty good? Cardboard Gods has a post where at least a couple of paragraphs are about Darrell Porter.

Here's a study I'd like to see someone duplicate for the Brewers: DRaysBay has a look at variations in the 2009 Rays' attendance based on starting pitcher. There's a lot of factors to consider (opponent, day of the week, position in the standings), but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers lost a fair chunk of attendance on days when Jeff Suppan or Braden Looper pitched down the stretch last season.

Speaking of things someone could duplicate for the Brewers, FishStripes has a Marlins add-on for Firefox. I'm not sure what exactly that entails, but if someone made a Brewer one and it didn't get in the way while I'm trying to work, I'd use it.

It's possible it's just something to do for the sake of pretending to do something, but Bud Selig has formed a committee to consider and address on-field improvements for the game, and one writer (Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune) thinks it might be the first step towards a legitimate challenge of the DH rule. (h/t BBTF) Craig Calcaterra, however, threw some cold water on the theory.

On this day in 1999, the Brewers signed Jose Hernandez to a three year, $10 million deal. Hernandez had one very good season as a Brewer and made the All Star team in 2002, but also struck out 498 times in three seasons, leading the NL in two of his three years.

On this day in 2002, the Brewers traded Ray King to the Braves for Wes Helms and John Foster. Helms spent three years as a Brewer, hitting .268/.335/.425. Somehow, I remember him being much worse than that.

Happy birthday today to:

Alcides Escobar, who turns 23.
2003-2004 Brewer Matt Kinney, who turns 33.
Former Brewer first round pick and 1975 Brewer Tommy Bianco, who turns 57.

Drink up.