SB Nation - New York Mets

Eminent Domain Applesauce - Mets keep Oberkfell, Willets Point rehabilitation, Todd Zeile for the HOF

Joe Budd — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:40:38 -0000

Hope everyone is enjoying their leftovers so far. Some pretty good stuff out there in the last few days. Take a look.

Meet the Mets

Doesn't this Jose Guillen rumor sound like exactly the sort of thing the Mets would do?

There are some strong performances to report in off-season play. Tobi Stoner is turning some heads and might be a consideration for the rotation. Josh Thole continues to rake and Lance Broadway has been strong.

Bob Klapisch thinks it'll take more than just one year to get the Mets back on track.

The Mets are keeping Ken Oberkfell in Buffalo.

The Wilpons are probably ecstatic that a federal judge just helped clear the way for development around Citi Field.

Omar has a really bad habit of using Carlos Beltran as a crutch to make up for mediocre corner outfielders.

Around the NL East

Jamie Moyer was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday in a setback from his earlier surgery.

Around MLB

There are new names on the Hall of Fame ballot: Alomar, Martinez, Larkin, McGriff, Zeile?

Yankee Stadium voice Bob Sheppard has officially retired.

Former Padres GM Kevin Towers is a hot commodity as a potential advisor.

Andruw Jones will join Omar Vizquel on the White Sox. If this were the late 90s, that would be a pretty amazing middle of the field defensively.

Mike Silva continues to look down on Florida baseball.

In a pretty amazing story, former Yankee reliever Ross Ohlendorf has become an intern at the Department of Agriculture.

Roy Halladay would waive his no-trade clause in a deal to the Yankees.

MLB Trade Rumors discusses the trades of the decade. It has to be A-Rod for Soriano, doesn't it? I mean as long as it wasn't Zambrano for Kazmir.

Sammy Sosa is facing some legal problems back in the Dominican Republic surrounding a real estate commission that Sosa has failed to pay.

Without a Catcher We'll Have a Lot of Passed Balls

Tom Dakers — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:33:33 -0000

With the shortstop signings of the last couple of last couple of days, the biggest pressing need for the team is a catcher. As Casey Stengel said, when asked why the expansion Mets used their first draft pick on a catcher, 'Without a catcher we'd have a lot of passed balls'. So I figured since it is the biggest shopping day of the US retail year, we'd put up a poll to see who folks thought the Jays should try to purchase.

Now some are catchers who, it is thought, their team is looking to trade (Shoppach, Buck, Pena, Doumit and Towles), the rest are free agents. Understand if you pick Miguel Olivo, I'm going to mock you, I love this post from Beyond the Boxscore.

Use the comments to campaign for the guy you like.

No Holliday Or Lackey? No Problem!

James Kannengieser — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 05:00:13 -0000

Bill Madden at the Daily News recently wrote that the Mets will be looking to cut payroll this offseason. If true, this is bad news for anyone hoping to see Matt Holliday, John Lackey or Jason Bay in a Mets uniform. Madden's estimate that there will only be $20 million available to spend on free agents seems a little low, but a $40 million estimate seems too high. If none of the big three free agents are signed there would likely be an uproar from the talk radio faction of the Mets fanbase. However, the offseason could very well be a success without signing any long term, ~$100 million contracts.

Working with a payroll around $15 million less than last year's ($147 million) I created an offseason plan. This is not a personal offseason plan, i.e. what I would do in fantasy GM world. There are several offseason questions which appear to have all-but-certain answers. Jeff Francoeur and John Maine will be back. Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan and Tim Redding will likely not be back (atleast on the major league Mets). Sean Green should and probably will be back but that's no lock. This plan considers all of these, as well as certain hot stove rumors, such as the team's desire to move Luis Castillo and interest in adding some power to the lineup. Here is the roster, including 2010 salary and conservative projected WAR:

The first move is trading Castillo for Milton Bradley, with the Cubs picking up some of Bradley's salary. His durability is a major issue but a corner outfield rotation of Bradley, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Eric Hinske (signed for 1 year, $1.5 million) and even Daniel Murphy would keep everyone fresh and allow for platoon opportunities.

Castillo's replacement at 2nd base is free agent Adam Kennedy, for 1 year and $3 million. This provides a defensive upgrade and a slight offensive downgrade. Adam Everett is the new backup middle infielder, for 1 year and $1 million. His UZR projection, per Jeff Zimmerman at BtB, is an outstanding +9 or +12 UZR/150. Should Jose Reyes have trouble returning from injury, Everett can be relied on to play everyday.

Even at 38 years old, Gregg Zaun can likely be counted on for 1-2 WAR and a 1 year, $2 million contract should be sufficient to secure him. First base was tough to determine, with Carlos Delgado and a Murphy/Nick Evans platoon also considered. I'd like to avoid farm system draining trades for the likes of Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Adam LaRoche is almost a sure bet for 25 home runs, an .830 OPS and 140+ games played a year. The same can't be said about the other free agent options (Nick Johnson, Russell Branyan) so LaRoche's stability is welcome in a lineup featuring some risks (Bradley, Pagan, Francoeur). It would probably take a multi-year deal to sign LaRoche and 2 years, $16 million gets it done here.

Eric's post about free agent pitchers made me think a little more about Jon Garland, a pitcher I previously wanted no part of. For 2 years, $12 million Garland would likely be worth more than his salary and provide some consistency (yes, consistency) to a staff that lacked it in 2009. The other major pitcher signings are John Smoltz and Justin Duchscherer for relatively cheap. Each has experience pitching out of the bullpen as well as the rotation and considering their age and/or durability issues this would help limit injury risk. Duchscherer's listed salary might be a little low but keep in mind he hasn't pitched in a year and has some off-the-field issues. Ben Sheets is also intriguing, and might be a smart signing when paired with someone reliable like Garland. Will Ohman is included as a possible scrap heap signing but Adam Bostick is another option. Kevin Gregg and Bob Howry are two other free agent relievers worth tracking.

This looks like an 88-93 win team, depending on how Reyes and Santana rebound, and whether the Smoltz and Duchscherer signings pan out well. If the Mets reduce payroll this drastically there would be justifiable outrage from the fanbase. However, the main point of this exercise is to demonstrate that Omar Minaya and the front office can have a successful offseason without making any big splash signings. Taking risks on low-cost, high-reward players and not overpaying players coming off career years (see: Randy Wolf, Jason Marquis) are two ways an offseason without Holliday or Lackey can work.

Cost and Value: Economic Realities (Part 1 of 3)

jscape2000 — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 17:00:34 -0000

by Julie Jacobson - AP

View full size photo »

Two of my favorite writers on the web have posts up about baseball salary, so I've been thinking about Yankee salaries for 2010 and beyond.

First, Joe Posnanski* wonders whether Joe Mauer is the most valuable player in the game right now. While Pujols is the superior hitter, the big money teams already have significant investments at first base (though I think the Angels and Sox would put Morales and Youk in left field or at third), and (this is the cogent point) why spend $30M on Pujols if you can have a Tex or a Miggy Cabrera for just $20M? There's not really a $10M difference between the best and the second best.

I've thought for years he's been the best sports writer in the country, and one of the highlights of my tenure at Pinstripe Alley was when he emailed me to say he thought I did a good job with my pinch hitting piece over at LoHud.

But Mauer is different because there is a $10M difference and more. Every team needs Joe Mauer because no one has a great hitting catcher. The O's have a hope that Wietters will be that guy, the Yankees have a dream in the minor leagues. But every big money bidder would be in on a 3 time batting champ, MVP, led the league in everything important catcher.

Then Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs hit me with a little musing on why we don't spend more time evaluating a player according to what percentage of his team's budget he occupies. The Pirates could sign Mauer, but then they wouldn't field a team at the other 8 spots (in fairness, the last time I watched the Pirates I was pretty sure they only had 7 guys on the field anyway, so maybe it's not a bad idea).

So I've been thinking about what money means to the Yankees.

And here I'm going to argue that the Yankees are different from 25 or 26 of the teams in baseball because the Yankees are a brand. I think the Cubs, the Red Sox and maybe the Cardinals are in this same class (the Cubs and Sox because of their historic stadiums, the Cards because of the singularity of their fanbase).

People go to a Yankee game because it's a Yankee game. I don't know yet if new Yankee Stadium will positively or negatively effect this. But when a tourist takes a trip to New York City, after they cross off the Statue of Liberty and Times Square, at least some portion of the population will feel "I came all the way here so I should go to the Ballpark in the Bronx."

Second, winning is worth more to the Yankees than any other team in the league. The YES Network gives the Yankees a revenue stream that most other teams can't touch. The Mets and Red Sox have started to catch up, but that's really it. If the Angels or Dodgers have started their own networks I haven't heard about it yet, but I think they should. When the Yanks are winning, the commercials are worth more, the cable rights are worth more, and the Yanks can charge more to My9 or whomever wants the ratings boost of carrying a big game (tangent- how long until we see the MLB schedulers arranging name brand matchups according to sweeps week?).

Watch the stands in Mattingly's Yankeeography. When the Yankees are winning they'll lead the league in attendance- and therefore, concession sales- but when it gets ugly, there's too much else to do in NYC. The Yanks have to field a competitive team to keep the cycle rolling.

Third and finally, because the Yankees are a brand, and because they are a corporate giant always in search of fresh markets, there are certain players who function as assets to the non-baseball wing of the franchise. This reality is a large part of the argument to re-sign Hideki Matsui: he's worth more to the Yankees than his salary because of the exposure he brings them in the Japanese market. This same logic will apply to Derek Jeter; he's already the franchise hit leader, and his 3000th hit and any other baseball or Yankee milestone will be worth as much to the team as they would save by replacing him with another player.

Coming up next: Yankee Salaries and Future Commitments.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:00:13 -0000

In addition to the top 20 Prospect lists that SB Nation's John Sickels is writing up over at Minor League Ball, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are working on their top 10, or 11 in the case of BP, prospect lists for 2010.

Today, I give you the Baseball America top 10 prospect lists for 2010 for the National League East teams:

Marlins

1. Mike Stanton, of

2. Logan Morrison, 1b

3. Chad James, lhp

4. Matt Dominguez, 3b

5. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/3b

6. Ryan Tucker, rhp

7. Kyle Skipworth, c

8. Isaac Galloway, of

9. Scott Cousins, of

10. Jhan Marinez, rhp

More after the jump:

Nationals

1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp

2. Derek Norris, c

3. Drew Storen, rhp

4. Ian Desmond, ss

5. Danny Espinosa, ss

6. Chris Marrero, 1b

7. Jeff Kobernus, 2b

8. Justin Maxwell, of

9. Michael Burgess, of

10. Destin Hood, of

Phillies

1. Domonic Brown, of

2. Kyle Drabek, rhp

3. Michael Taylor, of

4. Travis D'Arnaud, c

5. Trevor May, rhp

6. Anthony Gose, of

7. Sebastian Valle, c

8. Jarred Cosart, rhp

9. Antonio Bastardo, lhp

10. Domingo Santana, of

Mets

1. Jenrry Mejia, rhp

2. Wilmer Flores, ss

3. Fernando Martinez, of

4. Ike Davis, 1b

5. Brad Holt, rhp

6. Jon Niese, lhp

7. Reese Havens, 2b/ss

8. Josh Thole, c

9. Ruben Tejada, 2b/ss

10. Juan Urbina, lhp

Braves

1. Jason Heyward, of

2. Freddie Freeman, 1b

3. Julio Teheran, rhp

4. Mike Minor, lhp

5. Craig Kimbrel, rhp

6. Christian Bethancourt, c

7. Randall Delgado, rhp

8. Zeke Spruill, rhp

9. Cody Johnson, of

10. Adam Milligan, of

Re-Signing Alex Cora

Sam Page — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:46:30 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

3 months ago: New York Mets' Alex Cora, right, follows through on a single as San Diego Padres catcher Eliezer Alfonzo, left, looks on during the third inning of a baseball game Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

Last season, Alex Cora was a replacement level player (literally 0 WAR), but earned $2 million. Many fans, myself included, came to loathe Cora, as he played horribly down the stretch. I didn't want him back at any salary. However, facing the very real possibility that the Mets will resign Cora, maybe for the exact same figure, I've reevaluated his play and slightly changed my position.

As a hitter, Cora looked pretty good at the beginning of the season. Many lauded his ability to work the count, and he did finish the year with a decent 8.4% walk rate. Through May 17, he had a .886 OPS, then missed 2 weeks on the disabled list with a torn thumb ligament on his left hand. Instead of opting for surgery, however, he played through the injury as an everyday shortstop until August 12th, when he tore the ligament in his other thumb. From May 17-August 12, he hit .232/.290/.277. While I'm not suggesting his true talent is an .886 OPS and an injury dragged him all the way down to his final .610 mark, gripping the bat with one working hand probably negatively affected his performance. Going forward, I'd expect last year's performance with a little more power, somewhere in between his 2008 and 2009, ~.300 wOBA. As James texted me at 3 AM, that doesn't really pass the gut check with his career-wOBA being .290. Looking at his component skills, however, I think his BB% rate, which fluctuated a bit during his career as a regular, has made a sustained improvement, typical of a player of his age:

In fact, he might have matched his 2008 rate if he didn't exhibit such an uncharacteristic free-fall toward the end of the season:

via www.fangraphs.com

Again, this kind of improvement is not unusual for a a player of his age and skill set, and all I'm projecting is a repeat of his 2009 BB% with a slight increase in power.

Defensively, UZR rated Cora as below average at both SS and 2B, but we know in such small sample sizes, UZR can be an unreliable indicator of future performance. Jeff Zimmerman's age-adjusted UZR projections project Cora as a -1 UZR/150 defender at both SS and 2B. Given back-up duty, that would make Cora's fielding mostly neutral over the course of the season. As corroboration for that projection, check out Cora's defense according to John Dewan's +/-:

Plus/minus particularly likes his shortstop defense, ranking him as positive last year.

Considering the above, Cora's true talent as a back-up middle infielder is in the 0.5-0.7 range. While there are some utility infielders of arguably equal or better talent that get paid less, I won't complain if the Mets want to pay a slight premium for a player they think has an added intangible value.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Replacement Level Mets Update: Elmer Dessens and Wilson Valdez

James Kannengieser — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:33:51 -0000

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports (via MLBTR), the Mets are close to re-signing 38 year-old right-handed pitcher Elmer Dessens. Next logical question: why? Dessens posted a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 32.2 extremely low-leverage innings in 2009. Fortunately, we know not to look at ERA and WHIP as useful statistics for pitcher evaluation. The numbers that matter (3.86 K/9, 5.33 FIP, 4.93 tERA) tell a much different story, a story of luck fueled by an unsustainable .196 BABIP. Given his underwhelming stuff and 89 mph fastball, there's really no reason to bring him back for a major league or even a minor league deal. Meanwhile, Adam Bostick is a free agent.

The Phillies signed 31 year-old shortstop Wilson "The Spill" Valdez to a minor league contract (via MLBTR). He's a defensive specialist, to put it mildly, and the Mets would have been wise to bring him back if only for depth at AAA. Although he was a personal favorite there won't be many tears shed over this. The tears, and a change in my Omar Poll vote to "under no circumstances", will come when Alex Cora is signed for $2 million. These aren't "impact transactions" but it would've made for a slightly more enjoyable night-before-Thanksgiving if the Phillies were pursuing Dessens and the Mets re-signed Valdez.

Another Reader Poll: Blasto or Frenchy

Sam Page — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:49:59 -0000

While I work on some more real content, I thought of another potentially interesting poll. I know there isn't a real-life situation where this will become relevant; I'm just wondering.

Poll

Which player would you rather have on the Mets right now?

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round One Completed

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:00:21 -0000

Here's a look at the Fake Teams mixed league early mock draft results for Round 1. This early mock draft is a two round mock, and Ian posted the first pick in Round 2 last evening-Tim Lincecum.

1. Hanley Ramirez

2, Matt Kemp

3. Albert Pujols

4. Alex Rodriguez

5. Chase Utley

6. Ryan Braun

7. David Wright

8. Ryan Howard

9. Joe Mauer

10. Prince Fielder

Quiet Applesauce - New Met uniforms, Omar very intrigued by Molina, Pujols is NL MVP

Joe Budd — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:45:40 -0000

Enjoy your holiday everyone.

Meet the Mets

Ken Davidoff gives us an update on the Mets' offseason to date and goals for the future. Two scary things to note in the article. One: the Mets point to the Francisco Rodriguez contract negotiations as their ideal. Two, Bengie Molina is the free agent who intrigues the Mets the most.

The Mets introduced new uniforms. And there was much rejoicing.

Around the NL East

The Phillies came to terms with utility player Juan Castro.

Former Marlins/Nationals/Expos/Yankee first baseman Nick Johnson is getting a lot of attention so far this offseason. When he did play for the Marlins this year, he racked up an OBP over .470.

Around MLB

In what proved to be an even surer thing than the AL voting, the NL MVP award went to Albert Pujols. Joe Posnanski writes that Pujols is ALREADY a Hall of Famer. He also looks at David Wright as getting there some day.

A-Rod's ex-wife Cynthia has a new man in her life who apparently is not as good looking as Alex.

SB Nation - New York Mets

Eminent Domain Applesauce - Mets keep Oberkfell, Willets Point rehabilitation, Todd Zeile for the HOF

Without a Catcher We'll Have a Lot of Passed Balls

Who should the Jays pick up to play catcher this season?

No Holliday Or Lackey? No Problem!

Cost and Value: Economic Realities (Part 1 of 3)

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

Re-Signing Alex Cora

Replacement Level Mets Update: Elmer Dessens and Wilson Valdez

Another Reader Poll: Blasto or Frenchy

Which player would you rather have on the Mets right now?

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round One Completed

Quiet Applesauce - New Met uniforms, Omar very intrigued by Molina, Pujols is NL MVP