SB Nation - New York Yankees

Battle Royale: Johnson & Granderson vs. Matsui & Damon

Travis G — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 16:00:18 -0000

The Yankee offseason so far has begged one obvious question: which is the better duo - Matsui and Damon, or Johnson and Granderson?

To find that out, we need to divorce ourselves from emotional attachments to Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui (assuming Damon does not return). They were very good players while in the Bronx, and helped end a decade-long title drought, but to continue to be a perennial powerhouse, emotions can't get in the way of sound baseball and business decisions. It's the job of GMs to look to the future, not the past.

2009 saw Matsui and Damon post impressive numbers: .274/.367/.509 and .282/.365/.489 respectively.

Johnson and Granderson put up lines of .291/.426/.405 and .249/.327/.453 respectively.

At first glance, it looks like this will mean a drop in production. But let's dig a bit deeper.

M & D played in the new Yankee Stadium, also known as the most homer-friendly park in baseball (26% more longballs than the average park). The newcomers, J & G, played in gigantic parks: Comerica Park, Nationals Park and Dolphin Stadium, all of which are known as pitchers havens. We can reasonably assume M & D's power numbers will drop, only because they're moving to less 'left-friendly' ballparks. Conversely, J & G's power numbers should see an increase hitting toward the famous 'short porch.'

Johnny Damon is coming off one of his best offensive seasons, but the Yankees should be wary of players (1) in contract seasons having career years, and (2) having career years at 35. We can naturally expect Damon to regress. On the other side, Curtis Granderson will be 29, coming off an unusually down-year. 2007 was a career best, 2009 was (nearly) a career worst: we can naturally expect something in between (like 2008: .280/.365/.494, nearly identical to Damon's 2009, only Grandy did it in a pitcher's park).

Matsui is less unlikely to repeat his year, which was closer to his 'norm' than Damon's was. However, Nick Johnson's ridiculous .426 OBP is immensely valuable. I expect both Matsui's SLG and Johnson's OBP to decrease, only because they're rather out of line with their career averages. But I do expect Johnson's SLG to increase, what with the short porch in rightfield and the protection of Tex and A-Rod - he should see more hittable pitches and fewer walks.

Then there's defense, where J & D have, and should, easily surpass the aging duo of M & D. Matsui didn't play one inning in the field this year. It was the condition of his knees, not his salary, that gaves the Yankees pause. The Angels promised to give Matsui a chance to play the field at least once or twice a week. That's something the Yankees could not do. Damon played a passable leftfield, but every other outfielder on the team could play a better leftfield (yes, even Swisher), and are a minimum of seven years younger.

Granderson is a natural centerfielder, and wherever he plays he'll provide average to excellent defense. He'll also be playing in a significantly smaller centerfield than he's used to. Johnson is a solid first-baseman and will fill in admirably when Tex needs a day off. If Tex is going to last another seven years (while still bringing quality production), he'll need consistent rest.

Matsui was almost worthless on defense. Joe Girardi didn't even play him during the World Series - that's how little confidence he had in Matsui's ability to play the field. Damon is a mediocre leftfielder at best; a fulltime DH at worst.

Then there's health. Johnson has suffered from countless injuries in his career. He's played more than 130 games just three times in eight years. What will hopefully keep him healthy is a fulltime DH role. He's been in the NL the last five seasons, so perhaps not having to dive for grounders more than once a week will keep him healthy and productive all year. Conversely, can you really see Hideki Matsui playing the outfield several times a week? If he does, it'll only increase his chances of injury. Johnson and Matsui are pretty much even on the 'injury risk' scale: Johnson is incredibly susceptible to 'freak' injuries, and Matsui has chronically aching knees. Which is worse?

Damon and Granderson are also roughly equal in terms of health. There are no worries about Grandy, who's averaged 154 games over the last four seasons, or Damon, who's averaged 144 games over the same span. And do I need to mention that J & G are six years younger than their counterparts?

In terms of WAR, which takes into account all aspects of a player's game (offense, baserunning, defense, position, playing time), M & D were worth 4.8 WAR/season over the last three years. J & G were worth 5.9 WAR/season, and that's after giving Nick Johnson a zero for 2007 when he didn't play one game. So even if he stays just moderately healthy, it should be a net gain in wins.

Then there's cost. J & G will make $11 million combined next year (plus potential incentives for Johnson). M & D will probably make about $15 million ($6.5 million for Matsui, probably about $9 million for Damon). That saved money can be spent on another starter (Sheets, Duchscherer, Bedard), which is more important, at this point, than another hitter. Also, not having to commit several years to Damon allows that money to be spent on the amazing free agent class of 2011 (Mauer, Lee, Beckett, Webb, Crawford,) and bring back fan-favorites Jeter and Rivera.

For a cost conscious club, which the Yankees are looking more like everyday, the recent moves make for a more efficient team going forward. Younger, cheaper, and at least as productive.

(With all that said, I do believe, for the record, that Cashman was surprised at how fast Matsui got snatched up. He didn't see much of a market for 36-year-old fulltime DHs. When Matsui signed with Anaheim, Cash had to act quickly or all the good hitters would be gone. There weren't many other options, but Nick Johnson was the best fit for the Yankees. I'm very happy he's with us and not against us (as in, on the Red Sox).

Regarding Damon, I believe part of the reason Cash traded for Granderson was (1) to get a good, young centerfielder allowing for the departure of Damon, and (2) to put pressure on Damon/Boras to accept a short-term deal. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough, and it took negotiating with Nick Johnson to get them to cave, only by that time it was too late.)

Which pitcher do you want?

Ed Valentine — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:08:25 -0000

Travis mentioned the probability the Yankees will be seeking another starting pitcher in this morning's notebook. So, which guy do you want?

I think everybody left on on the market comes with questions. It's just a matter of which guy is the best gamble. Let's look at the most often mentioned candidates.

Ben Sheets: Probably the biggest upside, but also a huge injury risk factor. He would likely also be the most expensive option. Missed all of last season with an arm injury, but he has won at least 11 games six times and has a career WHIP of 1.201. A big risk, but possibly the biggest reward.
Justin Duchscherer: Also missed all of last season with an arm injury. Has two All-Star appearances in his xis-year career, and probably a lower price tag than Sheets. Offers a few things Sheets doesn't. First, all of his experience is in the American League. Second, has proven that he can be effective as both a starter and a reliever so would offer Joe Girardi flexibility.
Erik Bedard: Talented and left-handed, which are two nice advantages in Yankee Stadium. But, also injury prone and has made only 15 starts in each of the past two seasons. Plus, his toughness has been questioned in both Baltimore and Seattle. That could be a problem in New York.
Jon Garland: I know 'jscape' loves this guy, but I don't. Sure, he is pretty much a lock for 200 innings, but he is also extremely hittable. With balls flying out of Yankee Stadium like they do, I just don't see him as an effective option.
Jason Marquis: A 10-year veteran coming off a solid 15-13, 4.04 season (1.38 WHIP). But, Marquis has never pitched in the American League and that is a huge red flag for me.
Joel Pineiro: Another 10-year veteran coming off a good season where he went 15-12, 3.49 for St. Louis. It was Pineiro's best season since 2003. He has lots of AL experience with Seattle and Boston. Personally, I'm not convinced he can come close to repeating his 2009 season.

I'm not including the young Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman. Even if the Yankees do land the 21-year-old lefty he is highly unlikely to be a major league option in 2010, so I'm keeping him out of the debate.

Poll

Which starting pitcher should the Yankees add?

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

View full size photo »

The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

Around the Yankee Galaxy: Joba, DeRosa and another pitcher?

Travis G — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 12:00:22 -0000

Joba Chamberlain celebrated an early Christmas in his hometown of Winnebago, Nebraska, where he spoke to children at his old grade school -

Each day I want to make someone smile... everyone sees nine innings of work on the mound, but not the work that goes into it... that's one of the reasons I'm here, to give something to the teachers of these children.

Enjoy a 3-D tour of the Polo Grounds, which has been non-existent since 1964.
Bill Madden says the Johnson signing ends any interest in utilityman Mark DeRosa. I don't necessarily buy that, but signing DeRosa would require trading one of the surplus outfielders.
Jorge Posada would like to see another starter added to the mix. That'll probably mean Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer or Erik Bedard.
A New Hampshire woman testified in court after being accused of killing a Red Sox fan (who taunted her for being a Yankee fan) with her car.

DiamondView: 2009 New York Yankees

Tommy Bennett — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 21:00:27 -0000

I am very pleased to announce our newest series, in which we will give you a peek at the hitting performances from 2009, team-by-team, division-by-division, using Justin Bopp's excellent DiamondView. The honor of going first falls to the World Champion New York Yankees. But first, let me explain what our data expert (Jeff Zimmerman) and our graphics expert (Justin Bopp) have cooked up for you all.

There are four categories per player: defense (UZR/150), speed (EqBRR), power (ISO), and on-base (OBP). Each category is scaled as a percentile of the major league totals (for more details, see the original article linked above). Also included on each chart (in dark tones behind the image for the player) is the positional average at the player's dominant position. Justin then sprinkles his magic graphics dust (I really have no idea how he does it), and the results are like you see here.

Three caveats before we begin. First, we have excluded the DH because it's abhorrent to the spirit of baseball since there is no meaningful way to rate their defense. Second, the data used include only last year's performance. Finally, catcher defense remains problematic, so each catcher is given the same defensive mark. This is certainly not optimal, and we'll see if we can't come up with a better way to do things going forward. If you have a suggestion, please leave it in the comments.

Without further ado, here are the 2009 New York Yankees.

1B Mark Teixeira

UZR didn't like Teixeira's 2009 season one bit, but Yankee fans tell a different tune. In all likelihood he'll bounce back with the glove next year. That'll make him a nearly all-around player, as you can see his hitting is phenomenal. I think he likes his new home park.

2B Robinson Cano

Cano put together a nice season with the bat for just about any position, but especially for the keystone. He's not a great baserunner and his fielding is below league average, but so long as the bat plays, Cano plays.

3B Alex Rodriguez

The fielding is the only thing that keeps ARod from retaining "complete player" on his list of titles (which now, thankfully, includes "The Man Who Destroyed the Myth of Clutch"). It makes me wonder about the accuracy on an individual basis of the fielding spectrum, at least insofar as players can move fluidly across it. Imagine a world where ARod stuck at short.

C Jorge Posada

Posada versus the aging curve! Sometimes, the best way to win a race against time is to start late. Since Posada didn't become a regular until age 26 in 1998, he is able to put up an ISO that is in the 90th percentile of all players at age 37. He's death on the base-paths and may see considerable time at DH over the coming seasons, but there's still a lot of color on that chart.

CF Melky Cabrera

The number one way to get a rise out of a Yankee fan is either to praise or disparage Melky Cabrera. I'm not sure why a player who is so close to league average causes so much disagreement, but it may be because it is sometimes hard to look at league average and appreciate it. He might have been over his head in '09, but he's earned an every day job.

LF Johnny Damon

He's flying that kite-shaped set of tools to free agency, and likely won't be Bomber in '10. His fielding, never world-beating, is approaching liability status. His bat has turned out to be quite the asset, and he still turns it up on the bases. He'll fall back on offense and bounce back on defense and will provide moderate value somewhere.

RF Nick Swisher

Not to be confused with the rap collective that frequently finds itself posted up in a parking lot, Swisher's house is built on a foundation of plate discipline and prodigious power. Tough to believe that he was traded for peanuts a year ago. Anyone heard from Jeff Marquez or Wilson Betemit lately?

SS Derek Jeter

Praising Jeter's tangible skills is the new hating on Jeter's intangibles and defense.

There are two camps in the sabermetric world: those who believe leadoff skills are unique and those who believe batting order is a Triassic relic. I happen to fall into the former group, and Patriot has demonstrated Jeter's excellence at the essential leadoff skills. His 96th percentile on-base skills are the best thing you could have getting five plate appearances a game, and his base running acts like a force multiplier.

Next up: Boston Red Sox

The Top 5 Winners in the MLB Off-Season (so far)

doron — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 18:35:35 -0000

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

Which teams rank as the top 5 winners in the MLB off-season, so far?

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After this memorable Hot Stove week, I figured it would be a great time to take a look at the big winners thus far in the MLB off-season. Which teams have made big splashes already, and which teams should be focusing on those remaining free agents? With that in mind, here are my picks for the top five winners thus far in the off-season.

5. Minnesota Twins

While by comparison to the names ahead on this list, the Twins off-season might seem quiet thus far, they’ve been helped by circumstance as much as they’ve helped themselves. The Twins made the first big acquisition of the off-season trading for shortstop JJ Hardy, and relinquishing Carlos Gomez, a trade that most believe favors the Twins. So long as JJ Hardy can recover from a down year in 2009, the Twins will be adding a great bat, with average, power and defense, at a premium position. Add to this the rumors that a Joe Mauer extension is in the works, the loss of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco by the Tigers, and the risky moves we’ve seen from the White Sox, and it seems that the Twins are a clear favorite to take the AL Central even with these small moves.

Next Steps: Extending Joe Mauer, and perhaps upgrades at third-base (Adrian Beltre?) or a mid-level starting pitcher.

4. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have made some great baseball decisions this off-season. For starters, they declined their option on Pedro Feliz and replaced him with a better-defensive player who gets on-base at a better rate in Placido Polanco. Their other big move of course was upgrading staff aces by adding Roy Halladay, despite the loss of Cliff Lee. They gave up some great prospects in the deal, but were at least able to replace them with similar talents. Phillippe Aumont, in particular, may not be far away from being able to help the bullpen of the Phillies, if they decide to keep him in a relief role in the minors. With Doc under contract for the next four years, the Phillies are in a great position to start off the next decade with success.

Next Steps: Bullpen help for Brad Lidge

3. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox off-season seems to have taken hints from the Seattle Mariners with their defense focus. They added Mike Cameron, who will be a gigantic defense upgrade over Jason Bay. They’ve also added solid shortstop Marco Scutaro, who is a versatile defender and, if he can replicate his 2009 season, will be a big offensive boost at the shortstop position that’s hurt them for years. They are also looking to move Mike Lowell to Texas, and rumors tell us that Adrian Beltre, one of the best defensive third-basemen in the game, would be their main target for third base in that case. On top of that, they added the markets best free agent pitcher in John Lackey, which gives them a very dominant looking rotation.

Next Steps: Perhaps signing Adrian Beltre if Lowell is traded, and those never-ending Adrian Gonzalez rumors.

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees have essentially made two substantial moves this off-season, and they’ve both been excellent. They made a massive splash by trading for Curtis Granderson, who will allow the outfield positions to shift and create a huge defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon. On top of that, his lefty-handed bat and power to right field will play perfect in Yankee Stadium, allowing most to think that he’ll have a terrific season in 2010. He’s also got the reputation of being a great guy, and that never hurts. This week, they also added Nick Johnson, who will likely replace DH Hideki Matsui. Johnson is what I like to refer to as an "OBP Monster", and while the 2-spot is unconventional for a DH, his propensity to take walks would look great in front of Mark Texeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Next Steps: It’s hard to imagine any, really. Unless they get crazy and try to add Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, their lineup of all-stars looks complete.

1. Seattle Mariners

At the beginning of the off-season, there were rumblings that the Mariners had a ton of cash to spend, but many dismissed that rumor. I don’t think anyone expected this type of off-season from Seattle. They picked up speedy Chone Figgins to provide great defense and get on-base with Ichiro at the top of the lineup, acquired Cliff Lee to give them baseball’s best one-two pitching punch, and now added Milton Bradley, who will give them a very good bat, so long as his attitude doesn’t get in the way. The man they call "Jack Z" is being essentially universally-praised these days, and with good reason. In less than two years, he’s taken the Mariners from a train-wreck to the clear-cut favorites to win the AL West. With the pitching they have, they may even be able to make a great run through the playoffs.

Next Steps: A power-bat in the middle of the lineup, though Jason Bay doesn’t fit their defense-minded approach. A slugging first-baseman should do the trick.

Poll

Who do you think has won the MLB Off-Season so far?

News Round-Up: The Tools of Ignorance

jscape2000 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 12:00:41 -0000

Tyler Kepner has the shake down on the Johnson-Damon drama:

Johnson is not precisely taking over for Damon. In the big picture, the Yankees are swapping two older left-handed hitters who made $26 million in 2009 (Damon and Hideki Matsui) for two younger left-handed hitters whose contracts average about $14 million in 2010 (Curtis Granderson and Johnson). They are replacing a speed guy and a slow guy with another speed guy and another slow guy.

I know some folks wanted Damon back; some think Cash made a wrong choice, and the Yanks' will regret it when they have a sore Johnson in June.

These are negotiations. I pretend that I'm not budging, you pretend that your not budging. Sometimes, one of us thinks we're not serious when we really are. The difference in real value of Damon/Matsui vs Granderson/Johnson is marginal, and this gives Cashman a little more leverage in future negotiations with Scott Boras. Next time Boras makes an outrageous demand to Brian Cashman, and Cash replies "That's unreasonable, so I'll go to my other options," Boras will be quicker to buckle.

Greg Fertel of Pending Pinstripes thinks that Brett Gardner could be a better left fielder than Jason Bay next season when we weigh offense, defense and baserunning.

I call malarkey because Joe G. proved in September and the postseason that he doesn't think Gardner gives him the best chance to win. If Joe G. has someone else, anyone else to run out there, he will use the other guy. Whether it's an ice-cold Melky or Nick Swisher having a Soriano-esque bout of futility at the plate, Joe G. thinks that GGBG's speed can only be a weapon off the bench.

Gardner has the potential (assuming no regression in the notoriously fickle UZR), but I don't think he'd ever get the opportunity.

Who's the greatest Yankee to ever wear #14? YankeeNumbers gives you the full run-down. My short list is down to Lou Piniella, Bill Skowron and Miguel Cairo. Grand Central has some work to do to put himself in that company.

The most important baseball man to ever wear 14 as a Yankee is easy, though: Bobby Cox.

Donnie Collins replaced Chad Jennings at the SWB Blog, and he's doing a fine job. He notes that former Yankee farmhand Eric Hacker has signed a minor league deal with the Giants- Hacker was DFA'd and traded to the Pirates for Romulo Sanchez, who is currently on the Yankees' 40-man and has an outside shot at making the bullpen out of Spring Training.

This is something else that Cashman has done well lately: holding on to the right guys, and flipping the marginal guys for other marginal guys he can have an extra season or two to develop.

Pitchers and catchers report in the longest 8 weeks of the year.

I try to always cite my sources. I think I link to one of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs every single day. And there's a reason: they're awesome. The work they do updating and sharing their respective information is as important as anything happening on the internet (from a baseball standpoint).

In the spirit of the season, I want to say a huge thank you to the folks who run each of those sites. What I do would be impossible without what they do.

Braves Sign Joe Thurston; Vazquez Won't Cross the Rocky Mountains

gondeee — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:18:30 -0000

More photos » by Bill Boyce - AP

Utility man Joe Thurston, formerly of the Cardinals, has signed a minor league deal with the Braves.

Browse more photos »

A few tidbits of information today. First off, from Mark Bowman we learn that the Braves have signed light-hitting utility man Joe Thurston, who last year was with the Cardinals, to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Thurston is mainly a second baseman, but he's made himself more valuable in recent years be learning to play the outfield and most recently learning to play third base (though, not that well). He's played a tad bit of shortstop in the minor leagues, but mainly he'll be in camp competing for the second utility infield position.

In the same blog post, and later in a front page post, Bowman quotes a source who confirms that it is highly unlikely that Javier Vazquez would waive his no-trade clause to go to a West coast team. I tackled that rumor and debunked it last night, albeit with out a "source," I instead used logic. It's good to know that Javy is still interested in remaining in Atlanta beyond next season. I'd like to see that happen, but of course, all of this is predicated on the Braves moving Derek Lowe.

Speaking of Lowe, I expect that we'll begin to hear another team mentioned more frequently in trade rumors with Lowe -- the New York Yankees. They seem to be tackling one off-season priority at a time, and after acquiring Curtis Granderson and now signing Nick Johnson, many people expect them to focus on starting pitching. The Braves are rumored to have long been interested in Nick Swisher. If they can swing Lowe for Swisher, then that may free up the Yankees to go back and try to re-sign Johnny Damon, another move that is seemingly in the Yankees interest.

Another team that may be looking for more starting pitching is the Cubs, who just freed up a bunch of money by trading Milton Bradley. I'm not sure how they would match up in a trade with the Braves, though, as they don't seem to have any surplus at a position the Braves need to fill.

I also continue to hear that free agent Xavier Nady and the Braves are close to a deal, and that only lingering medical questions about Nady are holding up the deal. Getting Swisher and Nady would seem to wrap up the principal needs of the Braves off-season, and set us up with a good and deep team heading into spring training. One name that I haven't heard mentioned with the Braves, but one I'd like to hear mentioned is Troy Glaus. He's a year removed from a fantastic season, and while he would primarily play first base, he would be an excellent third base insurance policy against Chipper Jones getting injured.

The Braves front office also officially announced, via a press release, that the team has signed six minor league free agents this off-season. The list includes left-handed pitcher Mariano Gomez, catchers Orlando Mercado and J.C. Boscan, infielder Joe Thurston and outfielders Brent Clevlen and Mitch Jones. They join right-handed pitcher Scott Proctor, who signed in November.

Thinking About Matt Capps

jscape2000 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Other guys would be called MattCapps as a nickname. MattCapps is just who MattCapps is.

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Aside from having the most assonant name on the free agent market, Matt Capps is one of the most attractive relievers available.

He's so sexy that his about half the teams in baseball want him to join their squad.

This might be surprising because Capps posted a 5.80 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, 12.1 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9. You're thinking, maybe he's that drunk sort of sexy.

But there's one thing I've learned about baseball, and based on their roster construction, I think the Yanks have learned it too: don't expect anything out of relievers. Don't expect them to be good, don't expect them to be bad. Unless it's Mo Rivera, you simply never know what you're going to get.

Part of this is statistical. Sample size is important in evaluations, and evaluating relievers year to year depends on a tiny sample size. Matt Capps threw 54 innings last season, 53 the season before. CC Sabathia threw 44 innings last May.

Another related piece is dumb luck. "The line drives are caught, the squibbles go for base hits. It's an unfair game." In a small sample size identical performance can produce disparate results. I already gave you Capps' numbers from 2009. Here are the numbers that stayed relatively the same: 7.6 K/9 (career 6.9), LD% 18.7 (career 20.2), GB/FB 1.00 (career 0.82). Matt Capps posted a .370 BABIP, up 70 points from his career average. For all these reasons, and no doubt more, the Yankees (and half the teams in MLB think Capps will return to being the guy who posted a 1.06 WHIP with 6.7 K/9 in his first 3 full seasons.

The Yanks have a slew of relievers and potential relievers who will do what they have done the last two season, mix and match the middle innings to ferry the ball to the great Rivera. Mark Melancon, Damaso Marte, Houdini Robertson, Aces Aceves, Mitre and Gaudin, Nova, Kontos, Jonny Albaledejo, Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez, Edwar Ramirez and Hector Noesi are all pretty much certain to see some time on the Yanks' roster. I picked Zach McAllister as the Yanks' top prospect because I think this will be his year somehow, someway, and I still think Alan Horne could make a charge. Plus there's always Joba and Phil should the Yanks sign another starter.

Matt Capps will make a decision soon about where he wants to play, and the Yankees will be on the list. They will be on because it is to Matt Capps' financial benefit for the Yankees to be involved. I will try my best not to pay attention, try not to think about what a valuable addition Matt Capps would be to our bullpen. He's probably only putting the Yankees on his list to drive up his price for whomever he will eventually sign with. The free agent dollars are in closers and that's the guy he should want to be if he's interested in securing his family's financial security through the next generation; being part of the Bridge to Mo should be the farthest thing from his mind.

But if he signs with the Yankees, expect the most exultant jscape post in a while.

MLB Trade Rumors: Johnny Damon to the Braves?

raygu — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Eric Gay - AP

about 1 month ago: New York Yankees' Johnny Damon breaks his bat grounding out to first to drive in a run in the fifth inning of Game 5 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, in Philadelphia. Philies catcher Carlos Ruiz watches. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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Last night, we heard that the Yankees were closing in on signing Nick Johnson to be their DH in 2010. That begs the question? Is Johnny Damon's career as a Yankee over now? Some seem to think so. His agent Scott Boras has his work cut out for him for sure.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff seems to this so in a tweet last night"

Yes, I think this is the end for J. Damon and #Yankees. Cashman seems serious re: budget, youth, payroll management/roster flexibility.

This seems to support my theory that Jesus Montero will make his debut in Yankee Stadium this year,

So who are the list of suitors for Johnny Damon? I guess the Angels could be looking at Damon as they have lost Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins this offseason. Damon could take Guerrero's DH spot, and play some left field on occasion.

Or how about the Braves? The Braves need a leadoff hitter, and a left fielder. Damon can do both. But he will cost them some money. I don't see Damon getting more than a two year deal from anyone this year. But he could fit in the Braves lineup nicely. Damon went 24-82-12-.282-.365-.489-.854 in 2009, but I don't see him hitting 20+ HRs anywhere but Yankee Stadium.

Poll

SB Nation - New York Yankees

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Which pitcher do you want?

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News Round-Up: The Tools of Ignorance

Braves Sign Joe Thurston; Vazquez Won't Cross the Rocky Mountains

Thinking About Matt Capps

MLB Trade Rumors: Johnny Damon to the Braves?

Is Johnny Damon a fit in Atlanta?