SB Nation - Philadelphia Phillies

SBN Baseball Postseason Awards -- National League Rookie of the Year

WholeCamels — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:27:18 -0000

Can J.A. Happ snare the SBN National League Rookie of the Year Award? (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr)

The SBNation bloggers voted on the BBWAA postseason awards, and we're rolling out the results! Today: National League Rookie of the Year. Results after the jump...

Atlanta Braves starter Tommy Hanson narrowly defeated Phillies lefty J.A. Happ, garnering 78 points and nine total first place votes, to Happ's 64 points and six first place votes.

The Pirates Andrew McCutchen and the Marlins Chris Coghlan tied for third place, with 54 total points.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

SBN Awards: NL ROY

DyingQuail — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:00:54 -0000

by Tony Tribble - AP

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This was, by far, the most difficult category for me to make my selections and I believe it was the same for HLP. Although we ended up texting out a resolution, I know that we ended up with different picks.

At some point during that insanely depressing text conversation, I realized that I didn't have as firm of grasp of the ROY pulse because there were no Astros with possible hopes of claiming the title. Apathy really got the best of me in this incident. I guess next year we could have Gervacio, Jason Castro, and someone I'm not thinking of at this second.

The fun part of this vote is playing: can you spot the homer-ism? Not that I'm lambasting anyone for it, but there a couple that jumped out at me and made me snicker a little.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

MLB Trade Rumors: Adrian Beltre to the Phillies??

raygu — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Kevin P. Casey - AP

2 months ago: Seattle Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre awaits a batter during his first baseball game back from an injury, against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Kevin P. Casey)

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I just finished reading Buster Olney's Monday afternoon chat over at ESPN and a chatter asked him the following:

Brian (Ann Arbor)

Buster, Pedro Feliz's option wasn't picked up. Who do you see replacing him: Beltre, Derosa, or is there someone else?

Buster Olney
(1:30 PM)

Brian: Beltre is a great, great fit -- so long as the price is right. We'll see what Scott Boras asks for ...

I agree with Olney, and Beltre could have a bounce back season hitting in Philly in 2010. He would actually be an upgrade defensively as well. His 2009 season was downright terrible, as he went 8-44-13-.265-.304-.379-.683.

His .683 OPS was the worst of his career, and his OBP was pretty close to being his worst. Beltre's BB% dropped from 8.3% in 2008 to 4.1% in 2009, and he hit alot more ground balls in 2009-45.6% vs 39.8% in 2008. His FB% dropped slightly, but his HR/FB% dropped significantly from 13.8% in 2008 to 5.6% in 2009. Beltre's career average HR/FB% is around 13.1%, so he should rebound in the power category. One can attribute Beltre's drop in power to the surgery he had on his right shoulder in June.

If the price is right, and it very well could be, I could see Beltre playing in Philadelphia in 2010, as this team is built to win now.

Poll

Should the Phillies sign free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, or go after a closer?

Arizona Fall League: Matt McBride Homers, Aaron Crow Hit Hard Again

raygu — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:00:40 -0000

The AFL was back in action on Monday following a day off on Sunday. The Rising Stars game was very exciting for those who watched as the Indian's catching prospect Matt McBride hit a two-run homer off of Nationals pitching prospect Drew Storen.

Let's take a look at the performances from Monday's games:

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-0-4, (.349)

Buster Posey, C, SFG-1-3, BB, K (.224)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-1-4, K (.167)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-1-4, 2K (.256)

Thomas Neal, 1B, SFG-0-4, RBI, BB (.288)

Hector Gomez, SS, COL-2-3, RS, 2B, HR, RBI (.271)

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC-1-4, RS, SB (.414)

Bryan Peterson, OF, FLA-2-3, BB, RBI (.400)

Jay Buente, RP, FLA-2 Inn, 5 K (3.86)

Matt McBride, C, CLE-2-4, 2 RS, 3B, HR, RBI (.420)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN-3-4, RS, RBI (.293)

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL-0-3, 2 K (.267)

Jonathan Gaston, OF, HOU-1-3, HR, 3 RBI (.226)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM-2-4, RS, (.339)

Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX-0-3, BB, 2 K (.240)

Aaron Crow, SP, KC-4 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K (7.94)

SB Nation Writers Vote: NL & AL Manager of the Year

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:04:11 -0000

More photos » by Will Powers - AP

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Here are the results from the SB Nation's writers poll regarding the NL Manager of the Year award:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

And below are the results from the AL Manager of the Year vote:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Let's hear some reaction from these results in the comment section below.

Congratulations ScottAZ -- Winner of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:46:07 -0000

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in. Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context. FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won. I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

Cliff Lee wins: 2
Ryan Howard home runs: 1
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total): 3
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances: 1
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez: 10.3
Brett Myers innings pitched: 1
Jimmy Rollins walks: 5
Brad Lidge saves: 0
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position: 2
Mariano Rivera runs allowed: 0
World Series outcome (victor and # of games): Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting. Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series. (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.) And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing. Let's do this again next October!

SBN Baseball Postseason Awards -- National League Manager of the Year

WholeCamels — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:43:06 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

A second consecutive National League Pennant was gratifying, sure, but the real measure of Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel's season? Finishing a solid fifth in the SBNation Postseason Award balloting. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Once again, the SBNation baseball blogging team got together to vote for the traditional postseason award winners. Each blog got two ballots for the editorial staff to complete (in our case, jonk and myself). First up, National League Manager of the Year. See the results below...

Later this week: Rookie Of the Year, Cy Young Award, and Most Valuable ~~Pujols~~ Player.

Jim Tracy is a worthy winner. He took a team from the dregs of the division in the spring and made a spirited run at the NL West title, falling just short and settling for the Wild Card. His Rockies took the eventual NL Champion Phillies to four games in the NLDS, nearly forcing a fifth game in Philadelphia, but for a two out rally in the bottom of the ninth of Game Four in frigid Denver.

Phillies' skipper Charlie Manuel finished fifth.

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Gains

Tommy Bennett — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:32:07 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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I know faithful BtB readers would never fail to discount attrition risk or regress expectations to the mean. I know this because you're a smart group of people. But I also tend to accept the presumption that cognitive biases sneak up on us when we're least cautious. And the more "enlightened" we come to think of ourselves, the more we might potentially open ourselves to blind spots.

Take free agent valuations. These things aren't easy, especially when you consider that few of the publicly available prediction models have released projections for the 2010 season. So much of the commentary you see out there is relying on guess work. And can you fathom when cognitive biases might play their most prominent role? Could it perhaps be when the analysis is unmoored from rigorous statistical data?

Take Pedro Feliz (that's "Pete Happy" in English). The Phillies held a team option on his services for the 2010 season: they could exercise it and pay him $5 million to stay in the City of Brotherly Love, or they could decline the option and pay him a $500,000 buyout. Thus, the marginal cost of a year of sterling defense and head-desk inducing limp noodleism was $4.5 million. Yesterday, the Phillies declined Feliz's option and will likely seek to fill their hot corner needs from the hot stove.

How can we tell if this was a good move?

One place many have begun their analysis is FanGraphs. There, they have calculated each player's value in terms of WAR. They have also taken the extra step of multiplying each season's WAR figure by the price of a marginal win on the free agent market in a given year to get a sense of how much each player was "worth."

Here are Feliz' values for the previous five seasons:

	Team	WAR	Value
2005	Giants	2.6	$8.70
2006	Giants	1.9	$7.00
2007	Giants	2.8	$11.50
2008	Phillies	1.5	$6.70
2009	Phillies	1.3	$5.70

And because I know you like a good graph:

As you can see, Feliz has been in decline. However, he has never been worth less than $4.5 million in any season in the last five years. Thus, the Phillies were wrong to decline his option, correct?

Well, no. First, we have to come up with an estimate of Feliz' value if he plays 162 games. Then we have to discount that figure by the probability that he gets injured. Playing next season at age 35, and with this probability is increasing year-over-year at a faster rate than it ever has, it is likely that there is at least a 10% chance Feliz spends a month or more on the disabled list. There is also a non-zero chance he suffers a career ending injury, etc.

So if our original estimate is that Feliz' value will be approximately $5 million in the event that he is healthy, it is almost certainly true that the Phillies made the right decision in declining his option.

This conclusion is reinforced once we take the necessary step of evaluating the other options. The two most commonly discussed are Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre.

Here's a typical discussion of Figgins, who is rather difficult to value:

So with all this information at our disposal, I ask – what’s the value of Chone Figgins? Since 2007, FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth a total of $50.9 million, with a high of $27.4 million in 2009 (while getting paid a paltry $5.78 million). But with Figgins finally eligible for free agency, would you pay Figgins $50 million over the next three years?

Figgins' FanGraphs values are even more all over the map:

	Team	WAR	Value
2005	Angels	2.7	$9.20
2006	Angels	0	$0.10
2007	Angels	3.1	$12.50
2008	Angels	2.4	$11.00
2009	Angels	6.1	$27.40

And here's a graph:

Eyeballing that chart, you are likely willing to discount his outlier season of 2009, despite the fact that it is the most recent. It was fueled largely by a career high 16.3 fielding runs above average (by UZR), and perhaps you don't trust UZR's year to year fluctuations (motivated by good reasons).

So let's say you throw out his outlier 2006 and 2009 seasons, and expect him to be worth between $9 million and $12 million. We'll split the difference and say $10.5 million. Again, that is if he is healthy. He will play next season at age 32, so perhaps the risk there is lower than it is with Feliz.

But does the bigger fluctuation in value (think of a beta value) make Figgins worth less than his expected value? Possibly. If teams are looking for production certainty, they may be willing to pay a premium. However, we ought to wonder whether the fluctuations are related to something inherent about Figgins, or are simply a combination of luck and circumstances.

In any event, if the Phillies are going to pay what is essentially par for the third baseman, perhaps they would like to guarantee a higher level of production than that which Feliz can be counted upon to provide.

The important thing is not to allow the ready availability of FanGraphs numbers, which are evaluated in hindsight, color your expected valuations. To do so is to fall prey to a common set of cognitive biases.

And, of course, if they want to make the ballsy play, they'll go after the riskiest but also probably the best option: Adrian Beltre.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:01:31 -0000

by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Carlos Gomez makes the wrong kind of contact.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while realizing you left your credit card in your other armor.

Thanks to Dan, Tyler and Rubie for filling in for me last week while I took a quick break to experience life in New York for a few days. Writing the Mug is no small feat, and all three of them did admirable work in my place, so be sure to stop by their sites today to thank them. It's good to be home. With that said, I'm going in for oral surgery in roughly an hour so I'm off again tomorrow, and I've lined up another of my favorite Brewer bloggers to fill in. I'm hoping to return on Wednesday but that will depend on how I bounce back and how coherent I am on Vicodin.

The Brewers, of course, saw fit to ruin a perfectly good day of my vacation by trading J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. If you weren't around the site this weekend, you missed a lot of great content on the trade: Jordan weighed in with his disappointment, Jeff made the case for keeping Mike Cameron anyway, and Noah, writing his first weekend roundup, had a great collection of thoughts on the deal from around the web. With that said, there's still a bunch more out there:

The Transaction Oracle compared Gomez to Tom Goodwin and said, "Gomez's version of selectivity is staring blankly at a random pitch and then flailing at the next one."
Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press called Gomez "clueless" and said he "has the baseball instincts of an Icelandic grade-schooler." (h/t BBTF)
The Grand National Championships called Gomez "a Juan Pierre without all that incessant singles hitting."
TheJay has a look at the career paths of players who have made as many PAs as Gomez has at such a young age with such a low OBP. Not exceptionally pretty.
Aaron Gleeman says Gomez has gotten a bum rap, but also likes the deal for the Twins.
Miller Park Drunk has a roundup of other things people are saying about Gomez.
Meanwhile, despite Jeff's objections, Doug Melvin confirmed that the Brewers' decision to acquire Gomez means they won't make a push to retain Mike Cameron for 2010.
Nick's Twins Blog has an overview of the deal, including my scouting report for Hardy.
Twinkie Town has some questions about Hardy's defense (based largely on the comments of some frequent BCB'ers), and whether or not it's as good as advertised.
FanGraphs has a look at Hardy's defense, and rated him the third most valuable defensive player in baseball since 2007.
Along with the Red Sox (and presumably some others), the Reds confirmed interest in Hardy. Melvin didn't want to deal Hardy in the division, so he was forced to accept less from someone else.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham called the deal a steal for the Twins.
Rubie Q called the deal "worst nightmare stuff."
Baseball-Intellect says the Twins got Hardy for "pennies on the dollar."
Sabernomics is having a hard time choosing a winner in the deal.
Jorge Says No! says this deal has the potential to be win-win.

As of this writing, 54% of voters in the poll on your right think the Twins won the trade, with just 13% picking the Brewers. Gomez is walking in the door with a large portion of the fans believing he's not worth much, and it can be tough to overcome that when you're carrying a sub-.300 OBP. This could be the deal that sinks Doug Melvin.

Now, the Brewers have to find a way to wisely spend the financial windfall. MLB Trade Rumors has the likely landing spots for this winter's top 50 free agents, and lists both Doug Davis and Jarrod Washburn as likely Brewers, and also lists the Crew as a potential interested party regarding Jon Garland. Meanwhile, they have Felipe Lopez as a Dodger, Mike Cameron as a Padre and Ben Sheets as a Ranger.

Beyond that, there's not a lot of Brewer news, unless you wanted to talk about the decision to decline David Weathers' option.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Exercised Brandon Webb's option for 2010.
Dodgers: Declined Jon Garland's option for 2010.
Nationals: Declined Austin Kearns' option for 2010.
Phillies: Exercised Cliff Lee's option for 2010 and declined Pedro Feliz's.
Pirates: Designated pitchers Virgil Vazquez and Eric Hacker and catcher Steve Lerud for assignment.
Red Sox: Declined their option for 2010 on Alex Gonzalez.
Reds: Outrighted outfielder Danny Richar and first baseman Kevin Barker to AAA. Both will be minor league free agents.
Rockies: Declined options on catcher Yorvit Torrealba and Alan Embree.
Royals: Declined 2010 options for Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo and Yasuhiko Yabuta.
Tigers: Removed outfielder Marcus Thames and catcher Matt Treanor from their 40-man roster.
White Sox: Bought out the final year of Jermaine Dye's contract.

I'm going to wrap this up quickly, because my pre-surgery meds are starting to kick in:

Miguel Olivo has been mentioned as a potential option for the Brewers next season. Beyond the Box Score has a comprehensive list of things he does well.
Phil Birnbaum looks at the possibility that younger umpires have more accurate strike zones.
Baseball Reference wants your thoughts to help improve their site.
Seventeen congressmen voted no on a resolution congratulating the Yankees for winning the World Series. One of them was Wisconsin rep Jim Sensenbrenner. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1982, Robin Yount was the unanimous choice to win the AL MVP after leading the AL in hits, doubles, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases, while playing shortstop for the AL Champion Brewers.

It's also a big day for Brewer birthdays:

Dave Bush turns 30.
Angel Miranda, who appeared in 116 games as a Brewer between 1993 and 1997, turns 40.
Dion James, who was the Brewers' first round pick in the 1980 draft, turns 47.
Teddy Higuera, arguably the greatest pitcher in Brewer history, turns 51. You should celebrate his birthday by purchasing the sponsorship on his Bref page, which is available for $10.

Drink up.

Phillies Breakfast Links, November 9, 2009: Goodbye Pedro Feliz, Gas Face at 3rd Bas(e)

WholeCamels — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:22:21 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Third baseman Chone Figgins, whose bat (and glove) may be highly coveted by the Phillies this winter. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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Phillies decline option on Feliz
Smell ya later, Pedro Feliz.

WHO’S ON THIRD? - Philled In

Scott Lauber breaks down the potential Feliz replacements.

Phillies consider changes at third base

Would Chone Figgins bat leadoff? How would Jimmy Rollins feel about that?

SURGERY FOR LIDGE, IBANEZ, EYRE - Philled In

Well, at least we know now what was wrong with Brad Lidge. I hope?

The 10 most memorable moments of the 2009 postseason - Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

I can't believe he forgot Jimmy Rollins' walkoff double in NLCS Game Four the first time through. I mean, really.

Trade Analysis: Hermida a Monster pickup?

Florida Marlins deal Jeremy Hermida to the Boston Red Sox.

World Series Most Watched Since 2004

Thank goodness for this, lining the pockets of MLB and the Steinbrenner family. I was worried there for awhile!

Phillies fans refocusing sights on Eagles’ season

So how did that work out last night?

Jon Gosselin to attend wedding of Shane Victorino | TMZ.com

Shane, I don't like the aroma of these people around you and the team.